@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
The sales report is Sunday to Sunday, is it not? Did they sell 34,000 at 12:01 on Monday morning when they weren't available?
That's what I thought as well. But the 34K are missing.
They are not unproduced and/or unsold. Those two links to numismatic press both refer to first day sales, so I thought that might account for the reason.
If not, I'm back to that bulk sales channel, front end, whatever you want to call it not being captured. Whatever it is, it's not that they created a lottery to sell 41K, 50K, whatever number you like, and not bothering with the balance of the authorized mintage.
The front end was captured. It's 9,000 per the references i provided. We also have the sales number through Sunday 41,000. So, there's the 50,000.> @NJCoin said:
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
You don't even seem to understand my point. The website right now had numerous items that aren't on backorder but not sold out or even fully minted. Lack of a Back order doesn't mean anything, even though you keep citing it as evidence of something.
I absolutely do understand what you are saying. You bringing in the 2017 EU sets was a total red herring.
Mentioning niche products, with low demand, that aren't on Back Order even though they have no stock and are not sold out, because they don't have sufficient demand to justify making more, has absolutely nothing to do with this. So throwing it out as a theoretical possibility is pointless.
As will calling me a broken clock who happened to be right when 34K magically appear on some future sales report, even though they never went back on sale in quantity.
You, sir, are not a broken clock. You are a clock that is 15 minutes behind. Broken clocks are right twice per day. 😉
We'll see. But that 9K represents ABPP ADVANCE sales. Not the unlimited bulk sales that occurred on your front end at 12:01 p.m. on 10/16.
The bulk sales would be in the 41,000
Why is this so hard? They buy out of the same inventory pool that they pull the sales number from.
It's so hard because it doesn't make sense. I get that all sales come from the same inventory. But clearly, they don't all come from the same sales channel. Why is that so hard for you to grasp?
There is retail web and phone. One sales channel. Maybe two.
There is advance ABPP. Another sales channel.
And then there is bulk. A third sales channel.
And, finally, retail store. A fourth sales channel.
Either something is missing, or you and @coiner are correct, and ~34K were not sold. Or 25K. Or whatever. My vote is that all 75K were sold, and 34K did not make it into the last report.
And that those sales came from someplace other than where the other 41K sales came from. That leaves bulk sales, because retail store is likely several hundred, across all three of them. Not several thousand. And certainly not 34,000.
So no, I do not believe they did not make all 75K, and I do not believe a miniscule amount of bulk sales were made, in addition to tens of thousands of retail sales, one at a time over 24 hours, plus 9K ABPP sales, to get to 41K.
I think another 34K were sold through the bulk sales channel. Because dealers were allowed to place those orders, and because they would be highly lucrative, given they were allowed to buy at a discount to the $104 the rest of us bought at, and because 2.4% of them would be worth several thousand each.
Making buying as many as they could before sales were cut off a total no-brainer for them. That's why I think they bought 34K. Not some tiny subset of 41K, after subtracting 9K we know went to ABPP, and tens of thousands we know were sold over 24 hours to retail, given the lottery.
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
The sales report is Sunday to Sunday, is it not? Did they sell 34,000 at 12:01 on Monday morning when they weren't available?
That's what I thought as well. But the 34K are missing.
They are not unproduced and/or unsold. Those two links to numismatic press both refer to first day sales, so I thought that might account for the reason.
If not, I'm back to that bulk sales channel, front end, whatever you want to call it not being captured. Whatever it is, it's not that they created a lottery to sell 41K, 50K, whatever number you like, and not bothering with the balance of the authorized mintage.
The front end was captured. It's 9,000 per the references i provided. We also have the sales number through Sunday 41,000. So, there's the 50,000.> @NJCoin said:
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
You don't even seem to understand my point. The website right now had numerous items that aren't on backorder but not sold out or even fully minted. Lack of a Back order doesn't mean anything, even though you keep citing it as evidence of something.
I absolutely do understand what you are saying. You bringing in the 2017 EU sets was a total red herring.
Mentioning niche products, with low demand, that aren't on Back Order even though they have no stock and are not sold out, because they don't have sufficient demand to justify making more, has absolutely nothing to do with this. So throwing it out as a theoretical possibility is pointless.
As will calling me a broken clock who happened to be right when 34K magically appear on some future sales report, even though they never went back on sale in quantity.
You, sir, are not a broken clock. You are a clock that is 15 minutes behind. Broken clocks are right twice per day. 😉
We'll see. But that 9K represents ABPP ADVANCE sales. Not the unlimited bulk sales that occurred on your front end at 12:01 p.m. on 10/16.
The bulk sales would be in the 41,000
Why is this so hard? They buy out of the same inventory pool that they pull the sales number from.
It's so hard because it doesn't make sense. I get that all sales come from the same inventory. But clearly, they don't all come from the same sales channel. Why is that so hard for you to grasp?
There is retail web and phone. There is advance ABPP. There is bulk, and there is retail store.
Either something is missing, or you and @coiner are correct, and ~34K were not sold. My vote is ~34K sales were made, and did not make it into the report.
And that those sales came from someplace other than where the other 41K sales came from. That leaves bulk sales.
So no, I do not believe they did not make all 75K, and I do not believe a miniscule amount of bulk sales were made, in addition to tens of thousands of retail sales, one at a time over 24 hours, plus 9K ABPP sales, to get to 41K.
I think another 34K were sold through the bulk sales channel. Because dealers were allowed to place those orders, and because they would be highly lucrative, given they were allowed to buy at a discount to the $104 the rest of us bought at, and because 2.4% of them would be worth several thousand each.
Making buying as many as they could before sales were cut off a total no-brainer for them. That's why I think they bought 34K. Not some tiny subset of 41K, after subtracting 9K we know went to ABPP, and tens of thousands we know were sold over 24 hours to retail, given the lottery.
We've been watching these sales numbers for years. There have always only been 2 numbers. You want to tell me there's a database error, it is possible. Creating a previously nonexistent 3rd sales channel with no evidence is an exercise in fiction. Insisting that it MUST be the case is an exercise in obstinate. We can't know and yet you pretend that you do.
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
The sales report is Sunday to Sunday, is it not? Did they sell 34,000 at 12:01 on Monday morning when they weren't available?
That's what I thought as well. But the 34K are missing.
They are not unproduced and/or unsold. Those two links to numismatic press both refer to first day sales, so I thought that might account for the reason.
If not, I'm back to that bulk sales channel, front end, whatever you want to call it not being captured. Whatever it is, it's not that they created a lottery to sell 41K, 50K, whatever number you like, and not bothering with the balance of the authorized mintage.
The front end was captured. It's 9,000 per the references i provided. We also have the sales number through Sunday 41,000. So, there's the 50,000.> @NJCoin said:
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
You don't even seem to understand my point. The website right now had numerous items that aren't on backorder but not sold out or even fully minted. Lack of a Back order doesn't mean anything, even though you keep citing it as evidence of something.
I absolutely do understand what you are saying. You bringing in the 2017 EU sets was a total red herring.
Mentioning niche products, with low demand, that aren't on Back Order even though they have no stock and are not sold out, because they don't have sufficient demand to justify making more, has absolutely nothing to do with this. So throwing it out as a theoretical possibility is pointless.
As will calling me a broken clock who happened to be right when 34K magically appear on some future sales report, even though they never went back on sale in quantity.
You, sir, are not a broken clock. You are a clock that is 15 minutes behind. Broken clocks are right twice per day. 😉
We'll see. But that 9K represents ABPP ADVANCE sales. Not the unlimited bulk sales that occurred on your front end at 12:01 p.m. on 10/16.
The bulk sales would be in the 41,000
Why is this so hard? They buy out of the same inventory pool that they pull the sales number from.
It's so hard because it doesn't make sense. I get that all sales come from the same inventory. But clearly, they don't all come from the same sales channel. Why is that so hard for you to grasp?
There is retail web and phone. There is advance ABPP. There is bulk, and there is retail store.
Either something is missing, or you and @coiner are correct, and ~34K were not sold. My vote is ~34K sales were made, and did not make it into the report.
And that those sales came from someplace other than where the other 41K sales came from. That leaves bulk sales.
So no, I do not believe they did not make all 75K, and I do not believe a miniscule amount of bulk sales were made, in addition to tens of thousands of retail sales, one at a time over 24 hours, plus 9K ABPP sales, to get to 41K.
I think another 34K were sold through the bulk sales channel. Because dealers were allowed to place those orders, and because they would be highly lucrative, given they were allowed to buy at a discount to the $104 the rest of us bought at, and because 2.4% of them would be worth several thousand each.
Making buying as many as they could before sales were cut off a total no-brainer for them. That's why I think they bought 34K. Not some tiny subset of 41K, after subtracting 9K we know went to ABPP, and tens of thousands we know were sold over 24 hours to retail, given the lottery.
We've been watching these sales numbers for years. There have always only been 2 numbers. You want to tell me there's a database error, it is possible. Creating a previously nonexistent 3rd sales channel with no evidence is an exercise in fiction. Insisting that it MUST be the case is an exercise in obstinate. We can't know and yet you pretend that you do.
I'm only pretending to know that tens of thousands of these were not unsold. I don't have any idea why they are not in the report, and am admittedly just speculating as to why that might be the case. But I know for a fact that bulk sales are not a mysterious, hidden 3rd sales channel. They are a publicly acknowledged sales channel that the general public does not have access to. How it feeds into a sales report in unknown. Should be the same as all other sales, yet 34K are missing, and I'm speculating that bulk sales are the reason why.
All I know, based on watching the Mint for 20 year now, is that they are not leaving 25K, or 34K of these, unminted and unsold. If they made less than all 75K up front, and ran out of stock, they would have gone on Back Order. They didn't, so they were sold. Based on 9K going to ABPP, when that number should have been 7.5K, and given how lucrative the privys are, it will absolutely not shock me if another 34K found their way into the hands of bulk purchase dealers, rather than you and me.
Sometimes, just sometimes, the most obvious explanation is the correct one, rather than twisting yourself into a pretzel, reaching back to examples from 7 years ago involving tens of thousands of returned sets, or small, unpopular products that neither sell out nor go on Back Order before being pulled from sale, to speculate on an alternate explanation for why 34K units were neither sold nor made available for sale via Back Order.
One possibility is they could only get 50k in packaging, and it wouldn't surprise me since other products have been struck short due to it, and this packaging seems very expensive. Also someone posted a misprint on their packaging, showing it is not done perfectly and may have been fast tracked. Since the two sales sources add up to almost exactly 50k, that is very likely all they struck since they usually strike in round numbers like that. The other possibility is they could only get 50k blanks, and the third is they simply choose not to strike them all. I see no chance they struck them all and are hiding the remaining 25K, or those were sold through other channels.
@HalfDime said:
One possibility is they could only get 50k in packaging, and it wouldn't surprise me since other products have been struck short due to it, and this packaging seems very expensive. Also someone posted a misprint on their packaging, showing it is not done perfectly and may have been fast tracked. Since the two sales sources add up to almost exactly 50k, that is very likely all they struck since they usually strike in round numbers like that. The other possibility is they could only get 50k blanks, and the third is they simply choose not to strike them all. I see no chance they struck them all and are hiding the remaining 25K, or those were sold through other channels.
"Very likely all they struck." 🤣
You're going to eat those words when the missing 34K is finally reported, without you ever seeing them made available anywhere. Not Baltimore. Not the web. Not the phone. According to their press release on the gold coin, there will apparently be up to a few hundred made available via auction at a later date. That's it.
If they got 50K clam shells, they got 75K. Same with COAs. They are made on the same planchets as any other one ounce silver product, medal or coin, with a plain edge.
They have as many as they need, for anything they choose to make containing exactly 1.000 troy ounce of .999 fine silver. It's not 2022 any longer. They did strike in a round number. Exactly 75,000. Plus whatever excess they made to handle defective returns. Next.
@HalfDime said:
One possibility is they could only get 50k in packaging, and it wouldn't surprise me since other products have been struck short due to it, and this packaging seems very expensive. Also someone posted a misprint on their packaging, showing it is not done perfectly and may have been fast tracked. Since the two sales sources add up to almost exactly 50k, that is very likely all they struck since they usually strike in round numbers like that. The other possibility is they could only get 50k blanks, and the third is they simply choose not to strike them all. I see no chance they struck them all and are hiding the remaining 25K, or those were sold through other channels.
"Very likely all they struck." 🤣
You're going to eat those words when the missing 34K is finally reported, without you ever seeing them made available anywhere. Not Baltimore. Not the web. Not the phone. According to their press release on the gold coin, there will apparently be up to a few hundred made available via auction at a later date. That's it.
If they got 50K clam shells, they got 75K. Same with COAs. They are made on the same planchets as any other one ounce silver product, medal or coin, with a plain edge.
They have as many as they need, for anything they choose to make containing exactly 1.000 troy ounce of .999 fine silver. It's not 2022 any longer. They did strike in a round number. Exactly 75,000. Plus whatever excess they made to handle defective returns. Next.
>
Not according to this source:
The United States Mint (Mint) has experienced a shortage of silver blanks for years, and this shortage is expected to continue into 2024. The shortage is outside of the Mint's control and has made it difficult to meet demand for some of its most popular products.
Anyway, have fun pretending you know everything, I have said all I am on this topic.
@HalfDime said:
One possibility is they could only get 50k in packaging, and it wouldn't surprise me since other products have been struck short due to it, and this packaging seems very expensive. Also someone posted a misprint on their packaging, showing it is not done perfectly and may have been fast tracked. Since the two sales sources add up to almost exactly 50k, that is very likely all they struck since they usually strike in round numbers like that. The other possibility is they could only get 50k blanks, and the third is they simply choose not to strike them all. I see no chance they struck them all and are hiding the remaining 25K, or those were sold through other channels.
"Very likely all they struck." 🤣
You're going to eat those words when the missing 34K is finally reported, without you ever seeing them made available anywhere. Not Baltimore. Not the web. Not the phone. According to their press release on the gold coin, there will apparently be up to a few hundred made available via auction at a later date. That's it.
If they got 50K clam shells, they got 75K. Same with COAs. They are made on the same planchets as any other one ounce silver product, medal or coin, with a plain edge.
They have as many as they need, for anything they choose to make containing exactly 1.000 troy ounce of .999 fine silver. It's not 2022 any longer. They did strike in a round number. Exactly 75,000. Plus whatever excess they made to handle defective returns. Next.
>
Not according to this source:
The United States Mint (Mint) has experienced a shortage of silver blanks for years, and this shortage is expected to continue into 2024. The shortage is outside of the Mint's control and has made it difficult to meet demand for some of its most popular products.
Anyway, have fun pretending you know everything, I have said all I am on this topic.
Exactly what is "this source"? And just which popular products has the Mint had difficulty satisfying demand for in 2024? I don't know everything, but I do know this.
"Shortage expected to continue into 2024"? Just how old is this, given that it's now the end of October 2024?
Basically, meaningless, given that the pandemic is over and the economy is humming along. The Mint currently has over 100K of every flavor of Morgan and Peace Dollar available for immediate delivery. No difficulty meeting tepid demand whatsoever, after their $15 per coin price increase this year.
@HalfDime said:
One possibility is they could only get 50k in packaging, and it wouldn't surprise me since other products have been struck short due to it, and this packaging seems very expensive. Also someone posted a misprint on their packaging, showing it is not done perfectly and may have been fast tracked. Since the two sales sources add up to almost exactly 50k, that is very likely all they struck since they usually strike in round numbers like that. The other possibility is they could only get 50k blanks, and the third is they simply choose not to strike them all. I see no chance they struck them all and are hiding the remaining 25K, or those were sold through other channels.
"Very likely all they struck." 🤣
You're going to eat those words when the missing 34K is finally reported, without you ever seeing them made available anywhere. Not Baltimore. Not the web. Not the phone. According to their press release on the gold coin, there will apparently be up to a few hundred made available via auction at a later date. That's it.
If they got 50K clam shells, they got 75K. Same with COAs. They are made on the same planchets as any other one ounce silver product, medal or coin, with a plain edge.
They have as many as they need, for anything they choose to make containing exactly 1.000 troy ounce of .999 fine silver. It's not 2022 any longer. They did strike in a round number. Exactly 75,000. Plus whatever excess they made to handle defective returns. Next.
>
Not according to this source:
The United States Mint (Mint) has experienced a shortage of silver blanks for years, and this shortage is expected to continue into 2024. The shortage is outside of the Mint's control and has made it difficult to meet demand for some of its most popular products.
Anyway, have fun pretending you know everything, I have said all I am on this topic.
Amen. I'll join you on the sidelines. Want a beer?
@HalfDime said:
One possibility is they could only get 50k in packaging, and it wouldn't surprise me since other products have been struck short due to it, and this packaging seems very expensive. Also someone posted a misprint on their packaging, showing it is not done perfectly and may have been fast tracked. Since the two sales sources add up to almost exactly 50k, that is very likely all they struck since they usually strike in round numbers like that. The other possibility is they could only get 50k blanks, and the third is they simply choose not to strike them all. I see no chance they struck them all and are hiding the remaining 25K, or those were sold through other channels.
"Very likely all they struck." 🤣
You're going to eat those words when the missing 34K is finally reported, without you ever seeing them made available anywhere. Not Baltimore. Not the web. Not the phone. According to their press release on the gold coin, there will apparently be up to a few hundred made available via auction at a later date. That's it.
If they got 50K clam shells, they got 75K. Same with COAs. They are made on the same planchets as any other one ounce silver product, medal or coin, with a plain edge.
They have as many as they need, for anything they choose to make containing exactly 1.000 troy ounce of .999 fine silver. It's not 2022 any longer. They did strike in a round number. Exactly 75,000. Plus whatever excess they made to handle defective returns. Next.
>
Not according to this source:
The United States Mint (Mint) has experienced a shortage of silver blanks for years, and this shortage is expected to continue into 2024. The shortage is outside of the Mint's control and has made it difficult to meet demand for some of its most popular products.
Anyway, have fun pretending you know everything, I have said all I am on this topic.
Amen. I'll join you on the sidelines. Want a beer?
I would love a beer.
It's hard to talk to someone who knows everything.
@HalfDime said:
One possibility is they could only get 50k in packaging, and it wouldn't surprise me since other products have been struck short due to it, and this packaging seems very expensive. Also someone posted a misprint on their packaging, showing it is not done perfectly and may have been fast tracked. Since the two sales sources add up to almost exactly 50k, that is very likely all they struck since they usually strike in round numbers like that. The other possibility is they could only get 50k blanks, and the third is they simply choose not to strike them all. I see no chance they struck them all and are hiding the remaining 25K, or those were sold through other channels.
"Very likely all they struck." 🤣
You're going to eat those words when the missing 34K is finally reported, without you ever seeing them made available anywhere. Not Baltimore. Not the web. Not the phone. According to their press release on the gold coin, there will apparently be up to a few hundred made available via auction at a later date. That's it.
If they got 50K clam shells, they got 75K. Same with COAs. They are made on the same planchets as any other one ounce silver product, medal or coin, with a plain edge.
They have as many as they need, for anything they choose to make containing exactly 1.000 troy ounce of .999 fine silver. It's not 2022 any longer. They did strike in a round number. Exactly 75,000. Plus whatever excess they made to handle defective returns. Next.
>
Not according to this source:
The United States Mint (Mint) has experienced a shortage of silver blanks for years, and this shortage is expected to continue into 2024. The shortage is outside of the Mint's control and has made it difficult to meet demand for some of its most popular products.
Anyway, have fun pretending you know everything, I have said all I am on this topic.
Amen. I'll join you on the sidelines. Want a beer?
I would love a beer.
It's hard to talk to someone who knows everything.
@WQuarterFreddie said:
NJCoin...."I am right and you are wrong!" Oh and " this product sucks and you all are making a bad decision to buy it!"
Jmlanzf...." you aren't even a broken watch right!" Oh and "what is so hard understand?"
GROUNDHOG DAY!! for the rest of us. 🙄😂🤣
My skin is thick and I do not get insulted. But, I AM going to feel good when I am vindicated, and it turns out I was right and everyone who disagreed with me was wrong. It's all good!
And, the product does not suck, but it IS overpriced and will not hold its value, given how many are floating around that would not be if people were not induced to buy it by the shot at a lottery win. 75K, not 41K or 50K. You'll all see in the next few weeks.
You didn't keep yours after not winning the lottery, Mr. Skin In The Game, so I'm not sure exactly what you are criticizing here. You apparently have exactly as much faith in its future as I do. 😀
@Goldminers said:
I see the flowing hair gold will be $3,740 if gold is between $2,700-2,749.99, which is $140 more than the gold eagle proof at $3,600 according to the new 2024 pricing grid.
@coiner said:
Premium is out of control on the gold. Absolutely rediculous.
Well the 1oz Proof Eagles and Buffalos are $3600 and $3640. I don't know if this is typical for the end of October but the Proof Bufs may be on track for the lowest sales ever. Sales are sitting at roughly 2/3 of the mintage of 2020 which is roughly 11,887.
@coiner said:
Premium is out of control on the gold. Absolutely rediculous.
Well the 1oz Proof Eagles and Buffalos are $3600 and $3640. I don't know if this is typical for the end of October but the Proof Bufs may be on track for the lowest sales ever. Sales are sitting at roughly 2/3 of the mintage of 2020 which is roughly 11,887.
Right. And these will be priced around $100 higher. Difficult to see how they are going to sell more than twice as many, even though they are a one-off. Not sure that helps, since it removes demand from whoever is maintaining sets.
Again, they are just pigs. They killed sales by insisting on capturing an ever increasing portion of the potential upside.
And then, for these, decided to try to grab an extra 5,000 in sales over and above what they know has been working for the American Liberty series. For no reason other than unmitigated greed. Leaving even less potential upside for 17,500 buyers at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold. No one should reward them by buying into it, when there is a silver version at a fraction of the price.
@coiner said:
Premium is out of control on the gold. Absolutely rediculous.
Well the 1oz Proof Eagles and Buffalos are $3600 and $3640. I don't know if this is typical for the end of October but the Proof Bufs may be on track for the lowest sales ever. Sales are sitting at roughly 2/3 of the mintage of 2020 which is roughly 11,887.
Right. And these will be priced around $100 higher. Difficult to see how they are going to sell more than twice as many, even though they are a one-off. Not sure that helps, since it removes demand from whoever is maintaining sets.
Again, they are just pigs. They killed sales by insisting on capturing an ever increasing portion of the potential upside.
And then, for these, decided to try to grab an extra 5,000 in sales over and above what they know has been working for the American Liberty series. For no reason other than unmitigated greed. Leaving even potential upside for 17,500 buyers at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold. No one should reward them by buying into it, when there is a silver version at a fraction of the price.
The whole problem is, the lower the sales/mintage, the more desirable it is... so if you're banking on that, this coin could be a slam dunk if "no one" is going to buy it.
@coiner said:
Premium is out of control on the gold. Absolutely rediculous.
Well the 1oz Proof Eagles and Buffalos are $3600 and $3640. I don't know if this is typical for the end of October but the Proof Bufs may be on track for the lowest sales ever. Sales are sitting at roughly 2/3 of the mintage of 2020 which is roughly 11,887.
Right. And these will be priced around $100 higher. Difficult to see how they are going to sell more than twice as many, even though they are a one-off. Not sure that helps, since it removes demand from whoever is maintaining sets.
Again, they are just pigs. They killed sales by insisting on capturing an ever increasing portion of the potential upside.
And then, for these, decided to try to grab an extra 5,000 in sales over and above what they know has been working for the American Liberty series. For no reason other than unmitigated greed. Leaving even potential upside for 17,500 buyers at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold. No one should reward them by buying into it, when there is a silver version at a fraction of the price.
The whole problem is, the lower the sales/mintage, the more desirable it is... so if you're banking on that, this coin could be a slam dunk if "no one" is going to buy it.
If you say so. That logic has failed time and again when people got excited to see low final mintages in continuing series, only to see sales and final mintages continue to sink even lower in future years.
Thus far, everyone has been bailed out as gold continues to hit new all time highs. If that continues forever, great. If not, not.
With a one-off like this, low sales will mean low demand at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold. I think it's wishful thinking to assume that demand will later materialize, at even higher prices in the future, just because no one wanted them when the Mint was selling them for a $1,000 premium.
And that's the Catch-22. The Mint isn't going to pull them in 30 days if they don't sell out immediately. So, following your logic (the lower the sales/mintage, the more desirable it is), people will jump in to buy if they see low sales, and then, boom, sales won't be so low anymore.
Bottom line -- if I am wrong, they WILL sell out, just like the silver version, once the HHL is lifted. Otherwise, without a lottery ticket to stimulate sales, they will be dogs. Now and forever.
People won't get hurt if gold rises above $3,500 per ounce. Otherwise, not so much. Especially if gold retreats from its all time high.
@Project Numismatics said:
Sealed medals going for $390 - $400 on eBay. Seeing dealer bids >$325. This is one popular lottery ticket. Wish I had loaded up!
@Project Numismatics said:
Sealed medals going for $390 - $400 on eBay. Seeing dealer bids >$325. This is one popular lottery ticket. Wish I had loaded up!
😳
They are currently selling for $200, and trending lower, without privys, and around $4,000 with a privy. So, asking $650 for a coin flip with a 97.6% shot at $200, and a 2.4% shot at $4,000 is just stupid, since the economic value of that bet is $291.
The fact that people are willing to pay more than $300 for sealed packages just tells you that people are at best, irrational, and at worst, stupid. My money is on most of them not understanding the math. Which does not make them irrational. 😀
And that's before potential tampering with the seal. I wonder if a single person has reported buying a sealed package on the secondary market and pulling a privy?
Or is the whole game just to trade them, sealed, forever? In which case an ungraded privy would have to go for $18,900 for a sealed package of one to make sense at $649 with the regular medal worth $200
Or is the whole game just to trade them, sealed, forever? In which case an ungraded privy would have to go for $18,900 for a sealed package of one to make sense at $649 with the regular medal worth $200
Imagine having a privy or two, intentionally withholding them from any grading or public disclosure, and then seeding a multi-year series of sales (over an over) of the same sealed HHL FHMs because people hold onto the dream that there's still a privy out there! 🤣
I realize that some of you are probably very successful, determined and disciplined flippers, but following the release (and resale market development) of this FHsM makes me realize I wouldn't have the stomach for it, and am happy to just be a vanilla buyer w/ no hopes of profiting off my interest in numismatics lol.
The 2024 date refers to the anniversary date. I would not expect them to change that. The US Mint medals still carry the 1789 date, after all.
>
Huh? They are dated 2024 because 1794 plus 230 gets us 2024. Medals struck next year would have to be dated 2025 to remain a 230th anniversary for the 1795 coin.
They could do 230th all the way to the 1804 design in 2034.
Next year would be 230th anniversary of both flowing hair and draped bust. Two medals dated 2025.
2026 would only have draped bust. 2028 reverse would switch to heraldic eagle.
PS You are correct they could strike the 25K they didn't do next year and remain the 230th anniversary of the 1794 coin, but it is much better to have this a yearly medal as I outline above.
@Project Numismatics said:
Sealed medals going for $390 - $400 on eBay. Seeing dealer bids >$325. This is one popular lottery ticket. Wish I had loaded up!
😳
They are currently selling for $200, and trending lower, without privys, and around $4,000 with a privy. So, asking $650 for a coin flip with a 97.6% shot at $200, and a 2.4% shot at $4,000 is just stupid, since the economic value of that bet is $291.
The fact that people are willing to pay more than $300 for sealed packages just tells you that people are at best, irrational, and at worst, stupid. My money is on most of them not understanding the math. Which does not make them irrational. 😀
And that's before potential tampering with the seal. I wonder if a single person has reported buying a sealed package on the secondary market and pulling a privy?
Or is the whole game just to trade them, sealed, forever? In which case an ungraded privy would have to go for $18,900 for a sealed package of one to make sense at $649 with the regular medal worth $200
The fact is that dealers are putting out bids >$300 and eBay is reflecting completed sales near $400 as of right now.
Lottery tickets generally sell for more than expected value. This is the market telling you how much the fun of scratching the ticket is worth.
Lotteries aren’t about rationality or ignorance of the odds. Lotteries are about fun, hope and other intangibles. We’ve beat that horse to death though - see Vaultbox.
@Project Numismatics said:
Sealed medals going for $390 - $400 on eBay. Seeing dealer bids >$325. This is one popular lottery ticket. Wish I had loaded up!
😳
They are currently selling for $200, and trending lower, without privys, and around $4,000 with a privy. So, asking $650 for a coin flip with a 97.6% shot at $200, and a 2.4% shot at $4,000 is just stupid, since the economic value of that bet is $291.
The fact that people are willing to pay more than $300 for sealed packages just tells you that people are at best, irrational, and at worst, stupid. My money is on most of them not understanding the math. Which does not make them irrational. 😀
And that's before potential tampering with the seal. I wonder if a single person has reported buying a sealed package on the secondary market and pulling a privy?
Or is the whole game just to trade them, sealed, forever? In which case an ungraded privy would have to go for $18,900 for a sealed package of one to make sense at $649 with the regular medal worth $200
The fact is that dealers are putting out bids >$300 and eBay is reflecting completed sales near $400 as of right now.
Lottery tickets generally sell for more than expected value. This is the market telling you how much the fun of scratching the ticket is worth.
Lotteries aren’t about rationality or ignorance of the odds. Lotteries are about fun, hope and other intangibles. We’ve beat that horse to death though - see Vaultbox.
Actually, yes. Most lottery tickets sell for more than expected economic value because people understand governments need to take their very high rake, so they accept it. And justify it by thinking at least the money is going to a worthy cause (seniors, education, etc.), without realizing those things would otherwise be funded with general tax revenue, so the lottery is really nothing more than a voluntary tax on the socioeconomic slice of society least able to afford additional, voluntary taxation. Not because it is "fun" to lose money. Serious gamblers don't go near any game with an expected ~50% payout. No such motivation here.
Here, the sealed packages were originally purchased from the Mint for $104. Less than two weeks ago. Where anyone could have scratched their itch for "fun" between noon on 10/15 and noon on 10/16 at that price. The delta between that and whatever the package is presently worth ($291) is the seller's profit, and the buyer's actual "fun" premium today, since the buyer is 97.6% likely to pull a medal worth a little less than $200. Anything beyond that is just throwing away money.
And, dealers don't stay in business very long by throwing away money. So they are just playing the greater fool theory in being willing to pay more than $300 for something they simply have to know is not worth that much. Which makes their buyers the greater fools, since the economic value of the sealed package right now is, as I demonstrated, $291. Not a single red cent greater than $300.
And, please note, I am not making any value judgment whatsoever on whether a medal that was sold by the Mint two weeks ago for $104 is actually worth $200, or $4,000, because the market says they are today. The rest of it is just math, stories about brilliant people willing to pay far more than economic value for the thrill of opening a sealed package aside.
Because, FWIW, the only posts I have seen here on this forum are from sellers of sealed packages in the secondary market, not buyers. Not a single post from a single buyer of a single sealed package, other than from the US Mint at $104 per medal. So any justification here for buyers of sealed packages at these prices could also just be read as people not wanting their marks to realize that they are, in fact, marks.
And no reason to go back to VB here. People do irrational or stupid things all the time. Making the VB folks rich, and bidding up their sealed offerings on the secondary market, are one of those things.
we have had several postings of pulling the 230 PRIVY for a sealed mailer of one set. several. that keeps the lottery ticket theory alive and well.
Right. Were those sealed mailers purchased from the Mint, or eBay?
Of course lotteries are alive and well as long as sealed packages exist. But those lotteries will be tainted as time goes on and the odds of a tampered package increase.
And none of this speaks to why anyone is paying more than $300 for a untampered with sealed package worth no more than $291, sealed, and $200 once opened 97.6% of the time.
@WQuarterFreddie said:
My goodness! You all are still debating? The horse is dead already! 🙄
Because you say so? If it's dead, why do you need to interject yourself?
It will be dead to me when I decide. Not when you make an announcement. Because, once again, you are not a moderator here, although you apparently desperately want to be, and maybe even think that you are. 🙄
@Project Numismatics said:
Sealed medals going for $390 - $400 on eBay. Seeing dealer bids >$325. This is one popular lottery ticket. Wish I had loaded up!
😳
They are currently selling for $200, and trending lower, without privys, and around $4,000 with a privy. So, asking $650 for a coin flip with a 97.6% shot at $200, and a 2.4% shot at $4,000 is just stupid, since the economic value of that bet is $291.
The fact that people are willing to pay more than $300 for sealed packages just tells you that people are at best, irrational, and at worst, stupid. My money is on most of them not understanding the math. Which does not make them irrational. 😀
And that's before potential tampering with the seal. I wonder if a single person has reported buying a sealed package on the secondary market and pulling a privy?
Or is the whole game just to trade them, sealed, forever? In which case an ungraded privy would have to go for $18,900 for a sealed package of one to make sense at $649 with the regular medal worth $200
The fact is that dealers are putting out bids >$300 and eBay is reflecting completed sales near $400 as of right now.
Lottery tickets generally sell for more than expected value. This is the market telling you how much the fun of scratching the ticket is worth.
Lotteries aren’t about rationality or ignorance of the odds. Lotteries are about fun, hope and other intangibles. We’ve beat that horse to death though - see Vaultbox.
@Project Numismatics said:
Sealed medals going for $390 - $400 on eBay. Seeing dealer bids >$325. This is one popular lottery ticket. Wish I had loaded up!
😳
They are currently selling for $200, and trending lower, without privys, and around $4,000 with a privy. So, asking $650 for a coin flip with a 97.6% shot at $200, and a 2.4% shot at $4,000 is just stupid, since the economic value of that bet is $291.
The fact that people are willing to pay more than $300 for sealed packages just tells you that people are at best, irrational, and at worst, stupid. My money is on most of them not understanding the math. Which does not make them irrational. 😀
And that's before potential tampering with the seal. I wonder if a single person has reported buying a sealed package on the secondary market and pulling a privy?
Or is the whole game just to trade them, sealed, forever? In which case an ungraded privy would have to go for $18,900 for a sealed package of one to make sense at $649 with the regular medal worth $200
The fact is that dealers are putting out bids >$300 and eBay is reflecting completed sales near $400 as of right now.
Lottery tickets generally sell for more than expected value. This is the market telling you how much the fun of scratching the ticket is worth.
Lotteries aren’t about rationality or ignorance of the odds. Lotteries are about fun, hope and other intangibles. We’ve beat that horse to death though - see Vaultbox.
Don't use the V Word!!!!!!
We should use the V word. VaultBox Series 9 was just released from the U.S. Mint. We know how mint officials arrived at the lottery idea right?
@Project Numismatics said:
Sealed medals going for $390 - $400 on eBay. Seeing dealer bids >$325. This is one popular lottery ticket. Wish I had loaded up!
😳
They are currently selling for $200, and trending lower, without privys, and around $4,000 with a privy. So, asking $650 for a coin flip with a 97.6% shot at $200, and a 2.4% shot at $4,000 is just stupid, since the economic value of that bet is $291.
The fact that people are willing to pay more than $300 for sealed packages just tells you that people are at best, irrational, and at worst, stupid. My money is on most of them not understanding the math. Which does not make them irrational. 😀
And that's before potential tampering with the seal. I wonder if a single person has reported buying a sealed package on the secondary market and pulling a privy?
Or is the whole game just to trade them, sealed, forever? In which case an ungraded privy would have to go for $18,900 for a sealed package of one to make sense at $649 with the regular medal worth $200
The fact is that dealers are putting out bids >$300 and eBay is reflecting completed sales near $400 as of right now.
Lottery tickets generally sell for more than expected value. This is the market telling you how much the fun of scratching the ticket is worth.
Lotteries aren’t about rationality or ignorance of the odds. Lotteries are about fun, hope and other intangibles. We’ve beat that horse to death though - see Vaultbox.
Don't use the V Word!!!!!!
We should use the V word. VaultBox Series 9 was just released from the U.S. Mint. We know how mint officials arrived at the lottery idea right?
VB hardly invented it. The Mint has used this "lottery" before. Edited to add: not the privy but the COAs.
@Project Numismatics said:
Sealed medals going for $390 - $400 on eBay. Seeing dealer bids >$325. This is one popular lottery ticket. Wish I had loaded up!
😳
They are currently selling for $200, and trending lower, without privys, and around $4,000 with a privy. So, asking $650 for a coin flip with a 97.6% shot at $200, and a 2.4% shot at $4,000 is just stupid, since the economic value of that bet is $291.
The fact that people are willing to pay more than $300 for sealed packages just tells you that people are at best, irrational, and at worst, stupid. My money is on most of them not understanding the math. Which does not make them irrational. 😀
And that's before potential tampering with the seal. I wonder if a single person has reported buying a sealed package on the secondary market and pulling a privy?
Or is the whole game just to trade them, sealed, forever? In which case an ungraded privy would have to go for $18,900 for a sealed package of one to make sense at $649 with the regular medal worth $200
The fact is that dealers are putting out bids >$300 and eBay is reflecting completed sales near $400 as of right now.
Lottery tickets generally sell for more than expected value. This is the market telling you how much the fun of scratching the ticket is worth.
Lotteries aren’t about rationality or ignorance of the odds. Lotteries are about fun, hope and other intangibles. We’ve beat that horse to death though - see Vaultbox.
Don't use the V Word!!!!!!
We should use the V word. VaultBox Series 9 was just released from the U.S. Mint. We know how mint officials arrived at the lottery idea right?
VaultBox is NOT released from the U.S. Mint. That's all I got to say about that!
@Project Numismatics said:
Sealed medals going for $390 - $400 on eBay. Seeing dealer bids >$325. This is one popular lottery ticket. Wish I had loaded up!
😳
They are currently selling for $200, and trending lower, without privys, and around $4,000 with a privy. So, asking $650 for a coin flip with a 97.6% shot at $200, and a 2.4% shot at $4,000 is just stupid, since the economic value of that bet is $291.
The fact that people are willing to pay more than $300 for sealed packages just tells you that people are at best, irrational, and at worst, stupid. My money is on most of them not understanding the math. Which does not make them irrational. 😀
And that's before potential tampering with the seal. I wonder if a single person has reported buying a sealed package on the secondary market and pulling a privy?
Or is the whole game just to trade them, sealed, forever? In which case an ungraded privy would have to go for $18,900 for a sealed package of one to make sense at $649 with the regular medal worth $200
The fact is that dealers are putting out bids >$300 and eBay is reflecting completed sales near $400 as of right now.
Lottery tickets generally sell for more than expected value. This is the market telling you how much the fun of scratching the ticket is worth.
Lotteries aren’t about rationality or ignorance of the odds. Lotteries are about fun, hope and other intangibles. We’ve beat that horse to death though - see Vaultbox.
Don't use the V Word!!!!!!
We should use the V word. VaultBox Series 9 was just released from the U.S. Mint. We know how mint officials arrived at the lottery idea right?
VaultBox is NOT released from the U.S. Mint. That's all I got to say about that!
I think he's referring to this coin release as "Vaultbox 9".
Comments
The mint should post how many privies have been struck so far. Probably all of them.
It's so hard because it doesn't make sense. I get that all sales come from the same inventory. But clearly, they don't all come from the same sales channel. Why is that so hard for you to grasp?
There is retail web and phone. One sales channel. Maybe two.
There is advance ABPP. Another sales channel.
And then there is bulk. A third sales channel.
And, finally, retail store. A fourth sales channel.
Either something is missing, or you and @coiner are correct, and ~34K were not sold. Or 25K. Or whatever. My vote is that all 75K were sold, and 34K did not make it into the last report.
And that those sales came from someplace other than where the other 41K sales came from. That leaves bulk sales, because retail store is likely several hundred, across all three of them. Not several thousand. And certainly not 34,000.
So no, I do not believe they did not make all 75K, and I do not believe a miniscule amount of bulk sales were made, in addition to tens of thousands of retail sales, one at a time over 24 hours, plus 9K ABPP sales, to get to 41K.
I think another 34K were sold through the bulk sales channel. Because dealers were allowed to place those orders, and because they would be highly lucrative, given they were allowed to buy at a discount to the $104 the rest of us bought at, and because 2.4% of them would be worth several thousand each.
Making buying as many as they could before sales were cut off a total no-brainer for them. That's why I think they bought 34K. Not some tiny subset of 41K, after subtracting 9K we know went to ABPP, and tens of thousands we know were sold over 24 hours to retail, given the lottery.
We've been watching these sales numbers for years. There have always only been 2 numbers. You want to tell me there's a database error, it is possible. Creating a previously nonexistent 3rd sales channel with no evidence is an exercise in fiction. Insisting that it MUST be the case is an exercise in obstinate. We can't know and yet you pretend that you do.
I'm sure they were. A number that small would meet be split into runs as it would take me time to retool than to strike.
🥱 wake me up when something happens
I'm only pretending to know that tens of thousands of these were not unsold. I don't have any idea why they are not in the report, and am admittedly just speculating as to why that might be the case. But I know for a fact that bulk sales are not a mysterious, hidden 3rd sales channel. They are a publicly acknowledged sales channel that the general public does not have access to. How it feeds into a sales report in unknown. Should be the same as all other sales, yet 34K are missing, and I'm speculating that bulk sales are the reason why.
All I know, based on watching the Mint for 20 year now, is that they are not leaving 25K, or 34K of these, unminted and unsold. If they made less than all 75K up front, and ran out of stock, they would have gone on Back Order. They didn't, so they were sold. Based on 9K going to ABPP, when that number should have been 7.5K, and given how lucrative the privys are, it will absolutely not shock me if another 34K found their way into the hands of bulk purchase dealers, rather than you and me.
Sometimes, just sometimes, the most obvious explanation is the correct one, rather than twisting yourself into a pretzel, reaching back to examples from 7 years ago involving tens of thousands of returned sets, or small, unpopular products that neither sell out nor go on Back Order before being pulled from sale, to speculate on an alternate explanation for why 34K units were neither sold nor made available for sale via Back Order.
One possibility is they could only get 50k in packaging, and it wouldn't surprise me since other products have been struck short due to it, and this packaging seems very expensive. Also someone posted a misprint on their packaging, showing it is not done perfectly and may have been fast tracked. Since the two sales sources add up to almost exactly 50k, that is very likely all they struck since they usually strike in round numbers like that. The other possibility is they could only get 50k blanks, and the third is they simply choose not to strike them all. I see no chance they struck them all and are hiding the remaining 25K, or those were sold through other channels.
"Very likely all they struck." 🤣
You're going to eat those words when the missing 34K is finally reported, without you ever seeing them made available anywhere. Not Baltimore. Not the web. Not the phone. According to their press release on the gold coin, there will apparently be up to a few hundred made available via auction at a later date. That's it.
If they got 50K clam shells, they got 75K. Same with COAs. They are made on the same planchets as any other one ounce silver product, medal or coin, with a plain edge.
They have as many as they need, for anything they choose to make containing exactly 1.000 troy ounce of .999 fine silver. It's not 2022 any longer. They did strike in a round number. Exactly 75,000. Plus whatever excess they made to handle defective returns. Next.
>
Not according to this source:
The United States Mint (Mint) has experienced a shortage of silver blanks for years, and this shortage is expected to continue into 2024. The shortage is outside of the Mint's control and has made it difficult to meet demand for some of its most popular products.
Anyway, have fun pretending you know everything, I have said all I am on this topic.
Exactly what is "this source"? And just which popular products has the Mint had difficulty satisfying demand for in 2024? I don't know everything, but I do know this.
"Shortage expected to continue into 2024"? Just how old is this, given that it's now the end of October 2024?
Basically, meaningless, given that the pandemic is over and the economy is humming along. The Mint currently has over 100K of every flavor of Morgan and Peace Dollar available for immediate delivery. No difficulty meeting tepid demand whatsoever, after their $15 per coin price increase this year.
Amen. I'll join you on the sidelines. Want a beer?
looks like 25k weren't sold
flip yours fast
I would love a beer.
It's hard to talk to someone who knows everything.
Mine are gone. But i'll buy more if they are offered again.
Bottoms up!
NJCoin...."I am right and you are wrong!" Oh and " this product sucks and you all are making a bad decision to buy it!"
Jmlanzf...." you aren't even a broken watch right!" Oh and "what is so hard understand?"
GROUNDHOG DAY!! for the rest of us. 🙄😂🤣
My skin is thick and I do not get insulted. But, I AM going to feel good when I am vindicated, and it turns out I was right and everyone who disagreed with me was wrong. It's all good!
And, the product does not suck, but it IS overpriced and will not hold its value, given how many are floating around that would not be if people were not induced to buy it by the shot at a lottery win. 75K, not 41K or 50K. You'll all see in the next few weeks.
You didn't keep yours after not winning the lottery, Mr. Skin In The Game, so I'm not sure exactly what you are criticizing here. You apparently have exactly as much faith in its future as I do. 😀
We wont hold it against you. Sometimes you get vindicated. But not this time.
Thanks!!! 😀 TBD.
Premium is so ridiculously high.
Premium is out of control on the gold. Absolutely rediculous.
Did not see them flip this morning.
Successful transactions with forum members commoncents05, dmarks, Coinscratch, Bullsitter, DCW, TwoSides2aCoin, Namvet69 (facilitated for 3rd party), Tetromibi, ProfLizMay, MASSU2, MWallace, Bruce7789, Twobitcollector, 78saen, U1chicago, Rob41281
Sealed medals going for $390 - $400 on eBay. Seeing dealer bids >$325. This is one popular lottery ticket. Wish I had loaded up!
In todays world of MISINFORMATION it's the lies that pour out of peoples mouths that affect peoples PERCEPTION of reality.
Your perception is your reality.
Everything you know is wrong.
Well the 1oz Proof Eagles and Buffalos are $3600 and $3640. I don't know if this is typical for the end of October but the Proof Bufs may be on track for the lowest sales ever. Sales are sitting at roughly 2/3 of the mintage of 2020 which is roughly 11,887.
Right. And these will be priced around $100 higher. Difficult to see how they are going to sell more than twice as many, even though they are a one-off. Not sure that helps, since it removes demand from whoever is maintaining sets.
Again, they are just pigs. They killed sales by insisting on capturing an ever increasing portion of the potential upside.
And then, for these, decided to try to grab an extra 5,000 in sales over and above what they know has been working for the American Liberty series. For no reason other than unmitigated greed. Leaving even less potential upside for 17,500 buyers at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold. No one should reward them by buying into it, when there is a silver version at a fraction of the price.
The whole problem is, the lower the sales/mintage, the more desirable it is... so if you're banking on that, this coin could be a slam dunk if "no one" is going to buy it.
If you say so. That logic has failed time and again when people got excited to see low final mintages in continuing series, only to see sales and final mintages continue to sink even lower in future years.
Thus far, everyone has been bailed out as gold continues to hit new all time highs. If that continues forever, great. If not, not.
With a one-off like this, low sales will mean low demand at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold. I think it's wishful thinking to assume that demand will later materialize, at even higher prices in the future, just because no one wanted them when the Mint was selling them for a $1,000 premium.
And that's the Catch-22. The Mint isn't going to pull them in 30 days if they don't sell out immediately. So, following your logic (the lower the sales/mintage, the more desirable it is), people will jump in to buy if they see low sales, and then, boom, sales won't be so low anymore.
Bottom line -- if I am wrong, they WILL sell out, just like the silver version, once the HHL is lifted. Otherwise, without a lottery ticket to stimulate sales, they will be dogs. Now and forever.
People won't get hurt if gold rises above $3,500 per ounce. Otherwise, not so much. Especially if gold retreats from its all time high.
😳
They are currently selling for $200, and trending lower, without privys, and around $4,000 with a privy. So, asking $650 for a coin flip with a 97.6% shot at $200, and a 2.4% shot at $4,000 is just stupid, since the economic value of that bet is $291.
The fact that people are willing to pay more than $300 for sealed packages just tells you that people are at best, irrational, and at worst, stupid. My money is on most of them not understanding the math. Which does not make them irrational. 😀
And that's before potential tampering with the seal. I wonder if a single person has reported buying a sealed package on the secondary market and pulling a privy?
Or is the whole game just to trade them, sealed, forever? In which case an ungraded privy would have to go for $18,900 for a sealed package of one to make sense at $649 with the regular medal worth $200
Imagine having a privy or two, intentionally withholding them from any grading or public disclosure, and then seeding a multi-year series of sales (over an over) of the same sealed HHL FHMs because people hold onto the dream that there's still a privy out there! 🤣
I realize that some of you are probably very successful, determined and disciplined flippers, but following the release (and resale market development) of this FHsM makes me realize I wouldn't have the stomach for it, and am happy to just be a vanilla buyer w/ no hopes of profiting off my interest in numismatics lol.
Oh no no please God help me! (Black Sabbath)
The fact is that dealers are putting out bids >$300 and eBay is reflecting completed sales near $400 as of right now.
Lottery tickets generally sell for more than expected value. This is the market telling you how much the fun of scratching the ticket is worth.
Lotteries aren’t about rationality or ignorance of the odds. Lotteries are about fun, hope and other intangibles. We’ve beat that horse to death though - see Vaultbox.
Well look at how many sales VaultBox is making!
Same concept, but just one prize.
Actually, yes. Most lottery tickets sell for more than expected economic value because people understand governments need to take their very high rake, so they accept it. And justify it by thinking at least the money is going to a worthy cause (seniors, education, etc.), without realizing those things would otherwise be funded with general tax revenue, so the lottery is really nothing more than a voluntary tax on the socioeconomic slice of society least able to afford additional, voluntary taxation. Not because it is "fun" to lose money. Serious gamblers don't go near any game with an expected ~50% payout. No such motivation here.
Here, the sealed packages were originally purchased from the Mint for $104. Less than two weeks ago. Where anyone could have scratched their itch for "fun" between noon on 10/15 and noon on 10/16 at that price. The delta between that and whatever the package is presently worth ($291) is the seller's profit, and the buyer's actual "fun" premium today, since the buyer is 97.6% likely to pull a medal worth a little less than $200. Anything beyond that is just throwing away money.
And, dealers don't stay in business very long by throwing away money. So they are just playing the greater fool theory in being willing to pay more than $300 for something they simply have to know is not worth that much. Which makes their buyers the greater fools, since the economic value of the sealed package right now is, as I demonstrated, $291. Not a single red cent greater than $300.
And, please note, I am not making any value judgment whatsoever on whether a medal that was sold by the Mint two weeks ago for $104 is actually worth $200, or $4,000, because the market says they are today. The rest of it is just math, stories about brilliant people willing to pay far more than economic value for the thrill of opening a sealed package aside.
Because, FWIW, the only posts I have seen here on this forum are from sellers of sealed packages in the secondary market, not buyers. Not a single post from a single buyer of a single sealed package, other than from the US Mint at $104 per medal. So any justification here for buyers of sealed packages at these prices could also just be read as people not wanting their marks to realize that they are, in fact, marks.
And no reason to go back to VB here. People do irrational or stupid things all the time. Making the VB folks rich, and bidding up their sealed offerings on the secondary market, are one of those things.
just one additional tidbit of info:
we have had several postings of pulling the 230 PRIVY for a sealed mailer of one set. several. that keeps the lottery ticket theory alive and well.
Right. Were those sealed mailers purchased from the Mint, or eBay?
Of course lotteries are alive and well as long as sealed packages exist. But those lotteries will be tainted as time goes on and the odds of a tampered package increase.
And none of this speaks to why anyone is paying more than $300 for a untampered with sealed package worth no more than $291, sealed, and $200 once opened 97.6% of the time.
It doesnt matter.
My goodness! You all are still debating? The horse is dead already! 🙄
Sure it does. Buying from the Mint at $104 made a lot of sense, which is why most people here did.
Buying from the internet above $300 makes absolutely no sense. Which is why I think everyone here saying it does is a seller, not a buyer.
You have already stated that you were a buyer from the Mint and a seller on the secondary market, so why are you arguing the point with me?
Because you say so? If it's dead, why do you need to interject yourself?
It will be dead to me when I decide. Not when you make an announcement. Because, once again, you are not a moderator here, although you apparently desperately want to be, and maybe even think that you are. 🙄
Don't use the V Word!!!!!!
Nah, he's providing new incorrect information.
We should use the V word. VaultBox Series 9 was just released from the U.S. Mint. We know how mint officials arrived at the lottery idea right?
VB hardly invented it. The Mint has used this "lottery" before. Edited to add: not the privy but the COAs.
VaultBox is NOT released from the U.S. Mint. That's all I got to say about that!
I think he's referring to this coin release as "Vaultbox 9".
I think someone could copy and paste his own words and he’d start arguing against it 😂