U.S. Mint 2024 lottery "230th Anniversary Flowing Hair Silver Medal".
SilverPlatinum
Posts: 286 ✭✭✭
Lucky those who would get one of the 1794 medals with "230" privy mark! It looks the U.S. Mint is doing some sort of lottery this year 
. I think they would worth lots of money later on.
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I am guessing the 75,000 will sellout. Basically 2.4% chance of getting one of the silver privy's or one in 42. That is if they are really distributed randomly and not in an early batch where odds might be higher?
Maybe if you are a big flipper dealer who has 50 people who can buy for them, you have a good chance. If these were coins, there would be even more serious attempts to get a score.
I don't care about certs signed by whoever running the mint and is making all this stuff up, but the privy is collectable at least for a while. They will be worth what someone is willing to pay for them, and early high prices usually fall.
Good luck with this. I really hope they do not do it with the gold half one ounce coin, or it will be insanity, as 1794 is less than 1945.
Note: Edited to correct the denomination as I was thinking of the Superman half ounce size gold at the time.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Actually, if they do this with the gold, it will be far less insane that with the silver, and nothing like what happened with the 75th anniversary AGE.
While 1794 is certainly less than 1945, the last time, 1945 is all that was offered. This time, the 1794 would be sprinkled in among 10K or 12.5K coins offered for sale. Layer on top of that the fact that each will be offered for something close to $4K (they will be a full ounce, NOT a half ounce!), and the frenzy will be far less for the gold than for 75K silver medals being offered for $104 each.
And that's assuming they even choose to do it. It is clear that they are doing it with the silver to create a frenzy, and to sell 75K units that they would otherwise have trouble moving at $104. Given recent sales of American Liberty gold coins, it is unlikely that they would have difficulty selling 10K-12.5K, even at the crazy premium they sell these for, without the gimmick. TBD.
Hard pass.
US Mint = VB on this one.
And most certainly will sell out
Martin
Yes, I agree with you the gold buying frenzy will probably less than the silver due to pricing, and I corrected my half ounce error above.
I was mostly referring to my "insane" comment,
with regard to the likely pricing of only 1,794 gold coins with the privy, if they do that. Serious collectors will bid the price up quite high, probably over $10,000 each like they did with the 1945 at first, (which is now closer to $20,000), considering some pay big bucks just for the paper certificates.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Probably one of the most expensive silver medals. If you think about it, almost like the actual coin since there are no denominations on the face of the coin
Thanks for the clarification. Now, why do you care whether or not they sprinkle 1794 special coins among 10K+ less special ones? People who want them can buy them, and those lucky enough to score one at issue price get to win a lottery. How are you better off if they don't do it, assuming you have no interest in the privy mark, and can easily obtain one without the privy?
I have collected every modern US Mint gold coin issued since 1976, so my interest is simply that, if they strike a limited privy, I will want to get one. I would prefer they did not go down this road, but with the DC comic gold, and now video gaming coins, it has become a bit crazy.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
"Just when I thought I was in, they pulled me back out."
I was considering ordering the silver in hopes of getting the privy, but them I realized that was a terrible reason, since I'm not sure how happy I'd be with a $104 silver medal without the hyped privy mark, which is almost certainly what I'd actually end up with.
@Goldminers shared some figures in the second post of this thread. Building on his work, here is the rest of the break-down:
P(No Privy) = 73,206 / 75,000 = 97.6080%
P(With Privy) = 1,564 / 75,000 = 2.0853%
P(With Privy & Signed COA) = 230 / 75,000 = 0.3067%
Yes, well, just like with VB, if a plain vanilla medal is what you want, you'll be able to get one on the secondary market for far below issue price. Probably for a lot less than if they weren't doing this.
This way, the market is going to be flooded with them, and they will likely find their level at around $70 or so for a MS69. Especially if the Mint refuses to accept returns on these, as I suspect they will if they wake up in time. If the Mint was not doing this, tens of thousands would like remain unsold, and would not be available to flood the secondary market.
As it now stands, you will be paying the Mint around $70 for the coin, and around $34 for the 1794/75000 shot at a winning lottery ticket worth at least $1,000, and maybe much, much more. Not a terrible gamble, but a bad deal for someone who just wants the medal, and has no interest in games of chance.
until numbers of privvy marked ones approach zero, they will be a day 2 flip only
I’m in. Leaving mine sealed up in original mint packaging. Could be an easy double of your money if not more.
Well, it’s limit of 1, at least for the first day, but the Mint could go longer.
Second, it could be a one day sellout.
75,000 might not be too many with the privy lottery, especially with the design, which would have been in demand already.
Why do you say this? What happened on Day 3 of the V75 privys, or the 1995-W ASEs, once people realized what they were? Or the 2019-S enhanced RP ASE? Or Day 1,000, for that matter? Where are all these today, as compared to original issue price, without regard to the price of an ounce of silver?
You are FAR too pessimistic here. 1,794 of a turd buried under a tree, produced by the US Mint in one ounce of .9999 fine silver, would garner a huge premium in the secondary market. I find it hilarious that people on this very forum who absolutely hated the privy mark two weeks ago will now be passionately pursuing it.
But passionately pursue it they will, no matter what they say. Because, unlike VB, this is a very under priced lottery, with arguably fair distribution. And, at least as of now, the prospect of a satisfaction guarantee money back return policy if you don't pull a winning ticket, and have no interest in an ounce of 230th anniversary silver for $104.
Even without the ability to return it for a full refund, which is why I think they will be crazy if they actually allow that, it is an under priced lottery, at $104, for something with around $70 of value plus a 2% chance of pulling something worth several thousand dollars. In fact, it is highly likely that a robust secondary market will develop for "sealed" boxes, which will invite scams since the seals will be easily manipulated. Unlike a VB TPG seal. But this will allow anyone so motivated to earn a hefty return on their $104. Which will only further feed the frenzy.
What I wish they would do is give long time loyal customers who meet certain thresholds of spending priority in the distribution, as a reward for spending a ton of money over an extended period of time, like competitors like the Royal Canadian Mint does. But the US Mint does not roll like that. So we will be fighting off bots and buying groups, as word of the lottery gets out. As a result, our odds of a win will be far less than the 2% it would otherwise be if the competition was limited to the usual group of dealers and collectors.
As I said in a previous post, the only good news here, other than for the lucky very few among the collector community who win the lottery, is that tens of thousands of these medals will be out in the wild that otherwise would not be. That will allow those of us who get shut out of the lottery, and just want a medal without a privy for our collection, to acquire one in the secondary market for far below issue price, since the medal will be stripped of the lottery ticket, and since supply will far exceed demand at $104, or anything close to it.
Looks like a buy, check, and return as necessary situation. Potential to clear a little profit vs. worst case minor shipping fee and a quick drop off at the PO on the way back from work. “I didn’t create the situation, I’m just dealing with it.”
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
@ Jacques_Loungecoque: I like your Wrangler photo
Yeah. Someone over there was smart enough to come up with this, and create excitement we haven't seen since the days of David Ryder. I will be truly shocked if we don't get a "no refund, replacement only for damaged items" announcement before launch.
They will still sell the 75K, but will get absolutely slammed with returns from the buying groups and bots if they don't listen to me. The idea was to actually sell 75K overpriced rounds by seeding them with prizes. Not merely have them make a round trip excursion from and back to the warehouse, with the prizes being stripped out along the way.
Definite potential to clear a profit, even is only by reselling a sealed box. I seriously doubt they will issue refunds for returned losing lottery tickets, for the cost of one-way return postage.
If they go with returns only for damaged or defective pieces then I expect quite a few folks will go out and purchase X-acto knives so that they can open the capsule, scratch the medal up and return it as damaged or defective.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Why? Spite? When I said return for damaged item, I thought it was understood that would be for a replacement, not a refund.
In any event, the more I think about it, the more I wonder whether people looking for the prize, as opposed to actual collectors, won't take the win and resell the unopened box for a profit rather than opening and then trying to return medals lacking privys.
I still think the Mint is asking for trouble by getting into the sealed box break game and still accepting returns for refunds. I guess we'll see, but nothing will surprise me with that lumbering bureaucracy.
The Mint will accept returns on these. Thousands will be returned after being opened and then (potentially) re-sold by the Mint as sealed boxes. If they don't re-sell open boxes then the final tally will be under 75,000, still more than enough for anyone who wants one. Even if you end up with an "open box" from the mint or secondary markets in November.
I'm not so sure about the returns, even though it is certainly more likely than not at this point, with a little more than a week to go.
"Resold as sealed boxes"? 🤣 Maybe in the 2029 Customer Appreciation event, at a deep discount. But not at $104 after they have been stripped of the lottery ticket.
That's why they are crazy if they actually take them back. Sealed boxes will surely be selling for a premium on the secondary market. At first. But, if the Mint takes returns and then pushes them back out the door, that will absolutely kill the secondary market value of sealed boxes for those who want to play that game.
So, how many times will the Mint be willing to take the same coin back? First people will return open boxes that don't contain winning lottery tickets. Then, people will return the returns they bought, when they realize there is no secondary market for sealed boxes once word gets out that the Mint is recycling previously opened boxes.
Bottom line -- it will be a clusterf**k if the Mint takes returns. They should make all sales on these final, due to their unique nature. People who want to return an unopened box will be able to sell it for a profit on the secondary market. And people who want to open them, and then return medals without a privy market, should not be allowed to do so. Unless it is damaged, in which case they get a replacement, not a refund.
Especially everyone here who was pooping all over the privy mark two weeks ago. No one else in the world accepts returns of losing lottery tickets. It figures the US Mint would be the first, but it really will do a lot more harm than good.
Both by exacerbating the disaster that will be their website at noon on 10/15, since some of the froth will come off demand if people, especially non-collectors, understand they will be stuck with a not so special ounce of silver for their $104 plus shipping if they don't pull a winner, and by destroying the aftermarket value of their sealed boxes, by polluting the pool with resealed boxes that never gave their proud owners a shot at winning the lottery.
This is America. You can crap on almost anything while still making a buck on it. I’m most certain Johnny Depp’s old bed was purchased by someone.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
Agree 100%. In this case, returns should not be accepted. Doing so will be like 7-11 refunding scratched lottery tickets. Sadly, there will always be those who game the system and expect potential reward with zero risk in today's society.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Returns will be accepted. Always have been on every numismatic product they've ever made.
The U.S. Mint has no concerns about a "clusterfu*k". They are a U.S. government agency. Collectors, flippers, hoarders are not their concern.
Nope. You are correct about them not being primarily concerned with any of us. They are, however, very concerned with themselves.
Which is why they came up with the lottery in the first place. To very quickly sell out 75K one ounce silver medals at 3x+ spot, as well as to create a little excitement that has been missing since they embarked on their current strategy of selling numismatic products at huge premiums, while attempting to carefully match mintages to demand.
Selling 75k of these, having half of them come back, and then sit for years, maybe after another round trip or two as people think they will be able to buy returns to resell at a profit, learn otherwise, and then return them as well, will do nothing to further the Mint's objectives. And will, in fact, eat up time and resources. As well as money.
You are correct that they are a US government agency, and, as such, might very well be populated with many more incompetent people in management positions than might be tolerated in a private organization of similar size and scope. TBD. Let's see how this plays out. But don't say that they never saw the need to restrict returns. Because they did. Very recently, in fact.
"Instead of cannibalizing unsold numismatic products from previous years to recycle the coinage metals and scrap the packaging, the United States Mint is conducting a weeklong Customer Appreciation Sale beginning at noon Eastern Time Sept. 19 to liquidate select products, offering discounts up to 30%.
The Mint is clearing out select inventories of gold, silver and clad coins to make room in storage for the slate of products scheduled for release in calendar years 2025 and 2026. Multiple 2026 products are anticipated, recognizing the nation’s semiquincentennial.
The online sale at the Mint’s website is scheduled to conclude at noon Eastern Time Sept. 25.
These products are available for a limited time only, on a first-come, first-served basis, with no household order limits, while supplies last.
Go to usmint.gov before noon Eastern Time, Sept. 19, and click on the link to the Customer Appreciation Sale page to see which products will be offered.
According to Mint officials, the discounts reflect:
➤ 30% off select silver coins including silver Proof sets and America the Beautiful Uncirculated 5-ounce silver quarter dollars.
➤ 20% off select gold coins, including a Coin of the Year Award-winning design with the 2018 American Liberty tenth-ounce gold Proof coin, and the 2019 Proof American Eagle gold four-coin set featuring the original Family of Eagles reverse.
➤ 30% off select clad coin sets including Uncirculated coin sets and American Innovation $1 coin sets.
➤ Bags and rolls are priced at currency value plus $1 for rolls, and plus $5 for bags.
The number of each product to be offered is limited. All sales during the appreciation sale are final, with no returns permitted and all products offered “as is.”"
It's simple. These are not "close-out" sales or "last-call" "as-is". I'll return my non-privy marked medal next week for a replacement. Should have a second chance arrival within days. So will many, many others.
That's right! THESE are medals with a lottery ticket enclosed in the box. It absolutely should be an "as-is" sale, because otherwise, a TON of people will be fishing for winning lottery tickets, and returning opened packages that don't contain them.
And THAT will destroy the aftermarket for these. The only buyer at $104 for these without a privy mark will be the Mint, and, as a result, they will be inundated with returns. People screwing around with sealed boxes received when they go back on sale will destroy whatever market might have otherwise developed for sealed original boxes.
Yes, there are ways to figure out what was what through tracking information on the box. But, given the money that will be involved, people will mess around with it, and others will get hurt. Ultimately killing the market. For no reason, since there is no reason for the Mint to accept returns on these. None.
Like a "close-out," this is different from an ordinary sale. Usually, people know exactly what they are buying, and generally don't buy with the intent to open the box and then return if they don't score on a 2.4% chance to pull a winner.
Sure, some of us would buy them anyway. After all, they sold 33K Liberty and Britannia medals, and almost 35K 2023 American Liberty medals. Nowhere close to 75K for either. The Mint is simply setting itself for a Big Fail if they push 75K out the door in less than 24 hours, and then allow 35-40K to come back for no reason, other than people didn't actually want them in the first place.
Very same concept that led to the "close-out" being "all sales final," as opposed to indulging people looking for diamonds in the rough, with the intent to return anything that isn't absolutely perfect, while denying others who would have kept the item the opportunity to purchase it during the sale.
In this case, the Mint will still easily sell 75K if they don't take returns, without creating the fiasco of finding itself stuck with tens of thousands of returns. As a result, lottery players will either have to pay their money and take their chances, or flip the box to someone else who wants the opportunity, with no free looksies. Which is exactly the way every other lottery on earth works.
This is a lottery, not a normal Mint offering, and should be treated as such. If not, the biggest loser will be the Mint, because they will totally destroy and undermine what they set out to do in the first place with the lottery, after they find themselves stuck with a huge unsold inventory once returns are processed. The next biggest losers will be people who wanted to play the game honestly, but were shut out by people playing it for free. And finally, people who just wanted a medal without a privy will lose, because tens of thousands of them that would otherwise be dumped on the secondary market will instead be returned to the Mint for a refund. uscondary market prices to be far higher than they would have been otherwise.
This really is a no-brainer, and you will see that I am 100% right if they do take returns, lots of folks on this forum get shut out as the masses slam the website for a free shot at a prize, and then tens of thousands of returned medals without pivy marks remain available for sale from the Mint, mere weeks after the instant sell out.
Also, don't kid yourself. Absolutely no return will be processed before the initial 75K leave the building. You will have an absolute 0% chance of getting anything other another medal without a privy on a return, and you will be foolish to even try. If they do accept returns, and you don't want the medal without the prviy, the only move will be to ask for your money back.
Your second chance arrival will show up in weeks, not days, because it will likely take them weeks, not days, to fulfill the 75K orders, for one medal each, that they will receive on 10/15. No matter how quickly you receive your order, it will sit for weeks when you return it, along with tens of thousands of others. Most of which will be returned for a refund.
If you think you have a shot with another medal, you are sadly mistaken. You will receive one that has been returned, because that's all they will have to offer at that point in time.
You have all the answers, you don't need to convince me.
As a collector, I don't give a rip about mint director signatures and like the medal better with no "230" privy mark. I will order one and that will be a wrap. The gold? Well, possibly price dependent & if they want more than about 850 premium I will let it go.....
Well, just Love coins, period.
Just trying to help you out. My advice is worth exactly what you are paying for it, and YMMV.
Just don't be shocked if these flip to all sales final sometime between now and next Tuesday. Good luck.
The premium on the gold will absolutely be more than $850, with or without a lottery. Just look to the Liberty and Britannia, and the American Liberty, for an indication. The premium will be close to $1,000. Definitely on the other side of $900.
Has anyone actually contacted the mint to get some clarification on the return policy for this “Flowing Hair Medal “.
No. There is nothing to clarify. If they make a change to their policy, they will certainly communicate that on the order page. Thus far, they have not done so.
P.S. Even if they don't state up front that there are no returns, it wouldn't be shocking, given that they are the federal government, that they assert "the right to limit or refuse a return" after the fact, after they get slammed.
They will surely apologize for the inconvenience, but it's not like anyone is going to be able to sue them for the $104 and actually win. Again, a real clusterf**k, not beyond the realm of possibility. In which case the market for these will surely collapse, as tens of thousands hit the market as non-collectors take their losses and move on.
And, I agree it would be a bad move on their part. But arguably no worse than what people will otherwise be doing to them by returning used scratch off tickets. Under the mistaken notion that they would actually allow that, just because they usually accept returns in 7 days, and, presumably, the catch-all statement wouldn't ally to something like THIS!!!!
As a retailer as a wholesaler as a business, how do you not take returns when the course of conduct has been established, to use a legal phrase?
They can probably refuse returns legally, but they will flush quite a few customers down the drain.
Yes this could be a cluster.
Oh noooo,not another Cluster...
Because they are dopes? Otherwise, they would disclose the exception up front, due to the unique nature of the offering, and give everyone fair notice.
The alternative now will be taking a bath on returns. As unbelievable it is to think they aren't anticipating the possibility, I don't think it's wise to put anything past them.
And yet, after going to all the trouble to create the lottery and then make the coins with the privy, all to create the instant sell out at what is a very high price for a silver round with a 75K mintage, they will undo all of that if they actually accept returns and issue refunds. Once that reality smacks them in the face, don't be shocked if they toss pattern and practice aside, and assert their right in the fine print to refuse any return for any reason.
As sleazy as that would be, it absolutely would serve those chomping at the bit to game them right, to have to tables turned on them as the Mint games them right back. Yes, it will piss people off. But mostly people they don't care about, or even want as customers.
Because collectors will keep the medal and accept that they lost the lottery. Gamers never wanted the medal in the first place, so the Mint loses nothing by alienating them. With something like this, the Mint could easily sell 75K at $104 without giving anyone their money back if they don't pull a winner. They therefore don't need "customers" who are only in it for the score.
Not dopes. Just wondering if they know how much extra effort this type of marketing play accumulates.
Should be a fascinating outcome, however it goes. Lessons will be learned across the board.
Dopes if they end up springing a surprise on people and refusing returns after the fact, because they didn't think through the incentive they are giving people to open boxes and return medals that don't have a privy mark.
Because, believe me, there is no way they want those returns. And, if they don't so something, there is no way they won't be getting them. Not just a few. Likely 30-40K of them. One at a time.
They don't need to learn a difficult lesson after the fact. They just need to get their heads out of their you know whats, and use a teeny tiny bit of common sense. Like the good folks behind VB. Or any game of chance ever.
They also could have sold 1794 medals with a privy mark without mixing them in with something else, like they did with the 75th anniversary AGEs, and created the same excitement, and the same website crash, while cutting out the middle man involved in selling 40K unwanted medals that they were going to allow to be returned. But they didn't, because the goal was to actually sell 75K medals. Not to send half of them on a round trip around the country, many at the Mint's expense, before settling back in the Mint's warehouse for the long haul.
Or…
Allow the returns, see who the “bums” are, and shut down their accounts after accepting their returns under the current U.S. Mint rules. Clears out 30,000-40,000 “losers” and sends a strong message to the other millions of “players” moving forward.
🤔
Wondercoin
No they are stuck. They have to accept returns. Any discriminating effort to pick and choose who gets to buy product and who does not after following the return rules will not fly legally.
Nah. Given all the newbies likely to be attracted to this, not too likely to have a lasting impact on anything. Definitely a tremendous amount of squeeze in relation to the tiny bit of juice that will be derived. Moreover, it's super easy to just get another e-mail account or payment method the next time something similar comes along.
If you say so. I say they can change anything at any time, like they did for the clearance sale a few weeks ago.
I also say the T&Cs posted above already give them the right to refuse returns on these, although I agree it would be sleazy for them to do so as an alternative to giving everyone a clear disclosure ahead of time, again like they did for the clearance sale.
I don't see anything there that gives them the right to refuse returns if the rules are adhered. You will have to point that out specifically.
Once the package is opened, isn't it the buyer/sender who has to pay the return postage back to the mint? But guessing a lot of folks would rather lose $15 postage then ~$30 resale loss.
I am NOT a lawyer. Does this qualify?
Source: https://catalog.usmint.gov/customer-service/shipping.html
That would qualify if a customer keeps returning the product -a pattern of returns.
But if 10,000 different customers return I don't think that is enough for them to say no we won't accept returns any more in the middle of the game so to speak.
It does not qualify. Folks, it's a 1 ounce silver medal selling for 3x+ melt. I've returned 1 order in almost 20 years of ordering a couple mint products every year. This is no different. Things happen, packages get damaged, medals get scuffed, capsules get scratched, people lose jobs, etc. I bet fewer than 10,000 get returned. Nobody's going to take a bath on these. Even if the secondary markets collapse you might lose 30 bucks. I do believe they will be available "ungraded, open-box" below issue price next year.