As a tribute to the number of years that have elapsed since the Flowing Hair dollar coin was introduced, the Mint will also auction 230 one ounce, high relief, 24-karat gold coins with a “230” privy mark on December 12, 2024. The first coin will be auctioned with the die in a custom-made display box. Each of the coins will be accompanied by a certificate of authenticity hand-signed by the Honorable Ventris C. Gibson, Director of the United States Mint. Additional details about this special auction will be released at a later date.
and what are the rules for such an auction?
one per buyer? as high as they go in price?
or will it be like a dutch auction of 200+ with limit of 1 and lowest successful bid will be the price?
hmmm so many possibilities....
@coiner said:
and what are the rules for such an auction?
one per buyer? as high as they go in price?
or will it be like a dutch auction of 200+ with limit of 1 and lowest successful bid will be the price?
hmmm so many possibilities....
If it's like what they did last time, it will literally be one lot auctioned right after the other, until all 230 are gone.
One at a time, each with its own individually signed and numbered COA. You'll be able to buy one or all of them, as high as they go in price.
Because that's how auctions work. And because the idea here is to maximize revenue for the Mint. Not to widely distribute them, or to give anyone a deal.
For that, we had the silver medal, one per customer for the first 24 hours, with an embedded lottery ticket for a prize, sold at a price far below what everyone knew the prizes would be worth. Which is why they sold out 2 minutes after the HHL was lifted.
An auction is to allow the market to set the price, and to allow those willing to pay the most to accumulate as many as they want. Other than the one with the die, which will go for absolutely crazy money, it's reasonable to assume that prices will be determined by COA number.
With the first 20 or so going for a lot more than the rest, and them basically settling into a range after the first 50-100. Because, for people who care about COA number, will there really be a difference in perceived value between #110 and 210?
Not by a dutch auction, with everyone able to buy one at the lowest price that clears all 230. They didn't do that the last time, and they won't be doing that this time. We are talking about 230. Not 2300 or 23,000. Not unmanageable to sell them in a single live online auction session, one at a time, lasting no more than a few hours from start to finish.
Not really so many possibilities after all. Because they are not going to be sold as 230 fungible lots. Each will have its own individually numbered COA. #1 will be worth more than #10, which will sell for more than #20, etc.
Also, the last time they were slabbed by both NGC and PCGS. If they do that again, grade and TPG will also determine price. I think there is a very strong possibility they will do that again, because it costs them very little, and gives them the opportunity to also capture the premium associated with 70s. Stay tuned.
As a tribute to the number of years that have elapsed since the Flowing Hair dollar coin was introduced, the Mint will also auction 230 one ounce, high relief, 24-karat gold coins with a “230” privy mark on December 12, 2024. The first coin will be auctioned with the die in a custom-made display box. Each of the coins will be accompanied by a certificate of authenticity hand-signed by the Honorable Ventris C. Gibson, Director of the United States Mint. Additional details about this special auction will be released at a later date.
I don't like this idea. Now the Mint is possibly becoming an Ebay/Whatnot/Etsy bidding platform where the rich get richer and the have nots have no shot of winning one or more of these auctions.
Love the lottery opportunity. Feel like a collector who doesn't have deep pockets still has a shot of obtaining one even if the odds are slim.
As a tribute to the number of years that have elapsed since the Flowing Hair dollar coin was introduced, the Mint will also auction 230 one ounce, high relief, 24-karat gold coins with a “230” privy mark on December 12, 2024. The first coin will be auctioned with the die in a custom-made display box. Each of the coins will be accompanied by a certificate of authenticity hand-signed by the Honorable Ventris C. Gibson, Director of the United States Mint. Additional details about this special auction will be released at a later date.
I don't like this idea. Now the Mint is possibly becoming an Ebay/Whatnot/Etsy bidding platform where the rich get richer and the have nots have no shot of winning one or more of these auctions.
Love the lottery opportunity. Feel like a collector who doesn't have deep pockets still has a shot of obtaining one even if the odds are slim.
You have the opportunity to buy one at market price. Eminently fair. As you point out, you don't have a chance to win a lottery prize but that mystery box approach is much more "Whatnot" than a traditional auction.
As a tribute to the number of years that have elapsed since the Flowing Hair dollar coin was introduced, the Mint will also auction 230 one ounce, high relief, 24-karat gold coins with a “230” privy mark on December 12, 2024. The first coin will be auctioned with the die in a custom-made display box. Each of the coins will be accompanied by a certificate of authenticity hand-signed by the Honorable Ventris C. Gibson, Director of the United States Mint. Additional details about this special auction will be released at a later date.
I don't like this idea. Now the Mint is possibly becoming an Ebay/Whatnot/Etsy bidding platform where the rich get richer and the have nots have no shot of winning one or more of these auctions.
Love the lottery opportunity. Feel like a collector who doesn't have deep pockets still has a shot of obtaining one even if the odds are slim.
You have the opportunity to buy one at market price. Eminently fair. As you point out, you don't have a chance to win a lottery prize but that mystery box approach is much more "Whatnot" than a traditional auction.
I was referring to the privy coin. I may be wrong but I believe this is the first time the Mint has released a product only by auction and I feel it is blatantly unfair to a collector with limited funds for their hobby and it sets a bad precedent.
Also, they may have killed demand for the non privy since there is no lottery now. A better marketing plan would be to sell half at auction and the rest insert randomly with the non privy to give us all a chance to get a privy.
Will be interesting to watch how this unfoldd but I believe the non privy will not sell out or if they do it will take weeks not days.
You have the opportunity to buy one at market price. Eminently fair. As you point out, you don't have a chance to win a lottery prize but that mystery box approach is much more "Whatnot" than a traditional auction.
True. But this is not the USM's "purpose" when it comes to Numismatic offerings. This is definitely a change in direction. Their purpose was always to serve the collector, get as much product as widespread in collectors hands as possible--in a fair way.
Who would forget the outrage in 1995 when you had to buy a full gold proof set to get the coveted 1995-W silver eagle? It all started back then. Then websites going down, waiting rooms, etc.
Dont tell me the government cant do a dutch auction with 230 pieces and only allow for 1 to each unique customer at the lowest successful price. The GSA did a huge mail in bid sale (just like a dutch auction with min starting bid) for the sales of CC Morgans in the 1970s.
I guess i'm OK with the auction - but make it fairer to those without deep pockets to have a shot at these coins.
I have no complaints about the gold not having the motto. I just wonder what legal path the mint used to do this. Does the broad authority for gold and platinum coins allow the mint to omit mottos?
I know that one. That does not say anything about omitting In God We Trust and E Pluribus Unum though. Especially since every other 24k gold coin had a motto and they omitted it for silver medals
I have no complaints about the gold not having the motto. I just wonder what legal path the mint used to do this. Does the broad authority for gold and platinum coins allow the mint to omit mottos?
I know that one. That does not say anything about omitting In God We Trust and E Pluribus Unum though. Especially since every other 24k gold coin had a motto and they omitted it for silver medals
Again, I am NOT a lawyer. And, I could very well be interpreting it incorrectly.
That said, to me, it says that the Secretary has "discretion" with respect to "inscriptions" on "other" gold coins.
You have the opportunity to buy one at market price. Eminently fair. As you point out, you don't have a chance to win a lottery prize but that mystery box approach is much more "Whatnot" than a traditional auction.
True. But this is not the USM's "purpose" when it comes to Numismatic offerings. This is definitely a change in direction. Their purpose was always to serve the collector, get as much product as widespread in collectors hands as possible--in a fair way.
Who would forget the outrage in 1995 when you had to buy a full gold proof set to get the coveted 1995-W silver eagle? It all started back then. Then websites going down, waiting rooms, etc.
Dont tell me the government cant do a dutch auction with 230 pieces and only allow for 1 to each unique customer at the lowest successful price. The GSA did a huge mail in bid sale (just like a dutch auction with min starting bid) for the sales of CC Morgans in the 1970s.
I guess i'm OK with the auction - but make it fairer to those without deep pockets to have a shot at these coins.
The Mint's "purpose" is evolving as it becomes a little more market savvy over time. Premiums have exploded over the past 10 years or so, as the Mint has discovered it was leaving mucho bucks on the table for flippers.
They transitioned to charging what the market will bear. Sometimes overshooting the mark, as with the 2024 Morgan and Peace Dollars, but generally getting it about right. Basically killing flips in the process.
The lottery with the privys is actually the first time they ever did something like that, signed COAs accompanying a few Peace Dollars last year aside. In the old days, they would just throw something limited and good on the website, let us fight with the bots over them, and to the victor went the spoils.
When they did the change over to the new gold and silver eagle reverses in 2021, they realized there as a super premium market for coins with specific attributions, and they sold them at auction at what the market would bear. That's what this is. An adjunct to their "numismatic purpose," specifically for those willing to pay and play.
Throwing 2 million W quarters into circulation, and then letting the @WQuarterFreddie's of the world game that by grabbing them from boxes at banks before they hit the street was one thing, because that was low stakes poker. But this is serious money, and they are doing it specifically to exploit a market and generate some serious money for themselves.
Not to engineer a giveaway for a select few, or to make them accessible to people who cannot otherwise afford them. Most of whom ultimately do not resist the opportunity to cash in and sell to those who can afford them. The Mint knows this, because they also have people who read forums like this, and see what's happening on eBay.
So lets not conflate the general mission or purpose of the numismatic program with this. This is nothing more than feeding a teeny tiny subset of the market with a hyper premium product, at a hyper premium price.
There is no mandate that they randomly seed $50,000 dollar coins in with $3,700 coins, in order to create a market for us to sell sealed packages we obtain from them for $3,700 on eBay for $10K+. They could also just do that themselves if they wanted to (give us odds, and price sealed boxes accordingly, complete with "fun" premium built on top of lottery odds and numismatic premium, capturing everything for itself). In which case they would actually become VB. Which also would not be satisfying any numismatic purpose.
If you want one, you go buy one at auction. Otherwise, forget it. It's not for you, and was never meant for you. Only 230 people in the world will ever have one at any given point in time. Period.
You have the opportunity to buy one at market price. Eminently fair. As you point out, you don't have a chance to win a lottery prize but that mystery box approach is much more "Whatnot" than a traditional auction.
True. But this is not the USM's "purpose" when it comes to Numismatic offerings. This is definitely a change in direction. Their purpose was always to serve the collector, get as much product as widespread in collectors hands as possible--in a fair way.
Who would forget the outrage in 1995 when you had to buy a full gold proof set to get the coveted 1995-W silver eagle? It all started back then. Then websites going down, waiting rooms, etc.
Dont tell me the government cant do a dutch auction with 230 pieces and only allow for 1 to each unique customer at the lowest successful price. The GSA did a huge mail in bid sale (just like a dutch auction with min starting bid) for the sales of CC Morgans in the 1970s.
I guess i'm OK with the auction - but make it fairer to those without deep pockets to have a shot at these coins.
A "Dutch auction" with only 230 coins won't change the outcome. With 17, 500 coins it might. But with only 230 coins, they will essentially all get into the same retail price range. There will be people willing to bid them all up to $15k.
This DOES serve collectors. All collectors have the opportunity to purchase the privy. In fact, they have a BETTER chance at getting the privy than the non-privy because they can use $$$s to guarantee the get one rather than possibly get shut out by not being in line at the right time.
It also allows the Mint to guarantee they get fair market value for the coins rather than leaving room in the price for a few lucky flippers and dealers. Remember when people hated flippers and wanted them out of the process. They NEVER needed a waiting room. All they ever needed was an auction which would all but guarantee that 95% of coins end up in the retail collectors' hands. No dealer is going to max out their bidding and then hope that someone wants to pay 20% more than the auction.
As for 1995, the collectors were the problem not the Mint. The collectors were mad because they had failed to buy the sets that were available to them. They later realized that it ended up being a key because of the low mintage. If you recall, and even if you don't, the Mint actually sold more gold sets WITHOUT the ASE than with the ASE. The mintage on the ASE stayed low because of the low demand for it among people willing/able to buy the gold as well. If the ASE had been available separately, it would be a $60 coin today with sufficient mintage for everyone who had wanted one.
You have the opportunity to buy one at market price. Eminently fair. As you point out, you don't have a chance to win a lottery prize but that mystery box approach is much more "Whatnot" than a traditional auction.
True. But this is not the USM's "purpose" when it comes to Numismatic offerings. This is definitely a change in direction. Their purpose was always to serve the collector, get as much product as widespread in collectors hands as possible--in a fair way.
Who would forget the outrage in 1995 when you had to buy a full gold proof set to get the coveted 1995-W silver eagle? It all started back then. Then websites going down, waiting rooms, etc.
Dont tell me the government cant do a dutch auction with 230 pieces and only allow for 1 to each unique customer at the lowest successful price. The GSA did a huge mail in bid sale (just like a dutch auction with min starting bid) for the sales of CC Morgans in the 1970s.
I guess i'm OK with the auction - but make it fairer to those without deep pockets to have a shot at these coins.
A "Dutch auction" with only 230 coins won't change the outcome. With 17, 500 coins it might. But with only 230 coins, they will essentially all get into the same retail price range. There will be people willing to bid them all up to $15k.
This DOES serve collectors. All collectors have the opportunity to purchase the privy. In fact, they have a BETTER chance at getting the privy than the non-privy because they can use $$$s to guarantee the get one rather than possibly get shut out by not being in line at the right time.
It also allows the Mint to guarantee they get fair market value for the coins rather than leaving room in the price for a few lucky flippers and dealers. Remember when people hated flippers and wanted them out of the process. They NEVER needed a waiting room. All they ever needed was an auction which would all but guarantee that 95% of coins end up in the retail collectors' hands. No dealer is going to max out their bidding and then hope that someone wants to pay 20% more than the auction.
As for 1995, the collectors were the problem not the Mint. The collectors were mad because they had failed to buy the sets that were available to them. They later realized that it ended up being a key because of the low mintage. If you recall, and even if you don't, the Mint actually sold more gold sets WITHOUT the ASE than with the ASE. The mintage on the ASE stayed low because of the low demand for it among people willing/able to buy the gold as well. If the ASE had been available separately, it would be a $60 coin today with sufficient mintage for everyone who had wanted one.
You are spot on with this. Other than you are failing to take into account they will all have signed COAs. Likely numbered, as with the silver signed COAs. That will make each lot unique, as the Dawn and Dusk lots were, due to each slab having a different coin number. That alone would render a Dutch Auction inappropriate.
That said, where are you getting $15K from? The V75 AGEs go for more than $20K, and the mintage there was almost 10x this, without signed, numbered COAs. The silver medals with the signed COAs, with 8x the mintage, and in silver, not gold, and medal, not coin, were going for $10K+.
These will easily be above $30K, and conceivably above $50K. At that level, absolutely no reason for the Mint to take a haircut on a single one through a Dutch Auction. Because there will certainly be over 200 selling for more than the lowest priced one goes for. With respect to #2 vs. #212, the delta on that one coin alone is likely to be multiple tens of thousands of dollars. #1 will be in a tier by itself, since it is going to come with the die.
Yep, things are different now. We can't continue to expect businesses (even govt businesses) to leave money on the table. Why should the mint sell a coin for $100 that the market values at $5000? Concert venues used to underprice event tickets, now the market determines what the premium seats go for.
You have the opportunity to buy one at market price. Eminently fair. As you point out, you don't have a chance to win a lottery prize but that mystery box approach is much more "Whatnot" than a traditional auction.
True. But this is not the USM's "purpose" when it comes to Numismatic offerings. This is definitely a change in direction. Their purpose was always to serve the collector, get as much product as widespread in collectors hands as possible--in a fair way.
Who would forget the outrage in 1995 when you had to buy a full gold proof set to get the coveted 1995-W silver eagle? It all started back then. Then websites going down, waiting rooms, etc.
Dont tell me the government cant do a dutch auction with 230 pieces and only allow for 1 to each unique customer at the lowest successful price. The GSA did a huge mail in bid sale (just like a dutch auction with min starting bid) for the sales of CC Morgans in the 1970s.
I guess i'm OK with the auction - but make it fairer to those without deep pockets to have a shot at these coins.
A "Dutch auction" with only 230 coins won't change the outcome. With 17, 500 coins it might. But with only 230 coins, they will essentially all get into the same retail price range. There will be people willing to bid them all up to $15k.
This DOES serve collectors. All collectors have the opportunity to purchase the privy. In fact, they have a BETTER chance at getting the privy than the non-privy because they can use $$$s to guarantee the get one rather than possibly get shut out by not being in line at the right time.
It also allows the Mint to guarantee they get fair market value for the coins rather than leaving room in the price for a few lucky flippers and dealers. Remember when people hated flippers and wanted them out of the process. They NEVER needed a waiting room. All they ever needed was an auction which would all but guarantee that 95% of coins end up in the retail collectors' hands. No dealer is going to max out their bidding and then hope that someone wants to pay 20% more than the auction.
As for 1995, the collectors were the problem not the Mint. The collectors were mad because they had failed to buy the sets that were available to them. They later realized that it ended up being a key because of the low mintage. If you recall, and even if you don't, the Mint actually sold more gold sets WITHOUT the ASE than with the ASE. The mintage on the ASE stayed low because of the low demand for it among people willing/able to buy the gold as well. If the ASE had been available separately, it would be a $60 coin today with sufficient mintage for everyone who had wanted one.
You are spot on with this. Other than you are failing to take into account they will all have signed COAs. Likely numbered, as with the silver signed COAs. That will make each lot unique, as the Dawn and Dusk lots were, due to each slab having a different coin number. That alone would render a Dutch Auction inappropriate.
That said, where are you getting $15K from? The V75 AGEs go for more than $20K, and the mintage there was almost 10x this, without signed, numbered COAs. The silver medals with the signed COAs, with 8x the mintage, and in silver, not gold, and medal, not coin, were going for $10K+.
These will easily be above $30K, and conceivably above $50K. At that level, absolutely no reason for the Mint to take a haircut on a single one through a Dutch Auction. Because there will certainly be over 200 selling for more than the lowest priced one goes for. With respect to #2 vs. #212, the delta on that one coin alone is likely to be multiple tens of thousands of dollars. #1 will be in a tier by itself, since it is going to come with the die.
$15k is a minimum. I would not be so sure that they get to $50k or higher. You need to consider that ASE and AGE prices don't necessarily correlate due to the fact that those are widely collected series and this is a one off. If you want a complete ASE date/mm set, you need the 1995. You do not need this privy coin to do in any run. They might get north of 25k, but there's no guarantee.
You have the opportunity to buy one at market price. Eminently fair. As you point out, you don't have a chance to win a lottery prize but that mystery box approach is much more "Whatnot" than a traditional auction.
True. But this is not the USM's "purpose" when it comes to Numismatic offerings. This is definitely a change in direction. Their purpose was always to serve the collector, get as much product as widespread in collectors hands as possible--in a fair way.
Who would forget the outrage in 1995 when you had to buy a full gold proof set to get the coveted 1995-W silver eagle? It all started back then. Then websites going down, waiting rooms, etc.
Dont tell me the government cant do a dutch auction with 230 pieces and only allow for 1 to each unique customer at the lowest successful price. The GSA did a huge mail in bid sale (just like a dutch auction with min starting bid) for the sales of CC Morgans in the 1970s.
I guess i'm OK with the auction - but make it fairer to those without deep pockets to have a shot at these coins.
A "Dutch auction" with only 230 coins won't change the outcome. With 17, 500 coins it might. But with only 230 coins, they will essentially all get into the same retail price range. There will be people willing to bid them all up to $15k.
This DOES serve collectors. All collectors have the opportunity to purchase the privy. In fact, they have a BETTER chance at getting the privy than the non-privy because they can use $$$s to guarantee the get one rather than possibly get shut out by not being in line at the right time.
It also allows the Mint to guarantee they get fair market value for the coins rather than leaving room in the price for a few lucky flippers and dealers. Remember when people hated flippers and wanted them out of the process. They NEVER needed a waiting room. All they ever needed was an auction which would all but guarantee that 95% of coins end up in the retail collectors' hands. No dealer is going to max out their bidding and then hope that someone wants to pay 20% more than the auction.
As for 1995, the collectors were the problem not the Mint. The collectors were mad because they had failed to buy the sets that were available to them. They later realized that it ended up being a key because of the low mintage. If you recall, and even if you don't, the Mint actually sold more gold sets WITHOUT the ASE than with the ASE. The mintage on the ASE stayed low because of the low demand for it among people willing/able to buy the gold as well. If the ASE had been available separately, it would be a $60 coin today with sufficient mintage for everyone who had wanted one.
You are spot on with this. Other than you are failing to take into account they will all have signed COAs. Likely numbered, as with the silver signed COAs. That will make each lot unique, as the Dawn and Dusk lots were, due to each slab having a different coin number. That alone would render a Dutch Auction inappropriate.
That said, where are you getting $15K from? The V75 AGEs go for more than $20K, and the mintage there was almost 10x this, without signed, numbered COAs. The silver medals with the signed COAs, with 8x the mintage, and in silver, not gold, and medal, not coin, were going for $10K+.
These will easily be above $30K, and conceivably above $50K. At that level, absolutely no reason for the Mint to take a haircut on a single one through a Dutch Auction. Because there will certainly be over 200 selling for more than the lowest priced one goes for. With respect to #2 vs. #212, the delta on that one coin alone is likely to be multiple tens of thousands of dollars. #1 will be in a tier by itself, since it is going to come with the die.
$15k is a minimum. I would not be so sure that they get to $50k or higher. You need to consider that ASE and AGE prices don't necessarily correlate due to the fact that those are widely collected series and this is a one off. If you want a complete ASE date/mm set, you need the 1995. You do not need this privy coin to do in any run. They might get north of 25k, but there's no guarantee.
You need the privy coin to complete your privy collection.
You have the opportunity to buy one at market price. Eminently fair. As you point out, you don't have a chance to win a lottery prize but that mystery box approach is much more "Whatnot" than a traditional auction.
True. But this is not the USM's "purpose" when it comes to Numismatic offerings. This is definitely a change in direction. Their purpose was always to serve the collector, get as much product as widespread in collectors hands as possible--in a fair way.
Who would forget the outrage in 1995 when you had to buy a full gold proof set to get the coveted 1995-W silver eagle? It all started back then. Then websites going down, waiting rooms, etc.
Dont tell me the government cant do a dutch auction with 230 pieces and only allow for 1 to each unique customer at the lowest successful price. The GSA did a huge mail in bid sale (just like a dutch auction with min starting bid) for the sales of CC Morgans in the 1970s.
I guess i'm OK with the auction - but make it fairer to those without deep pockets to have a shot at these coins.
A "Dutch auction" with only 230 coins won't change the outcome. With 17, 500 coins it might. But with only 230 coins, they will essentially all get into the same retail price range. There will be people willing to bid them all up to $15k.
This DOES serve collectors. All collectors have the opportunity to purchase the privy. In fact, they have a BETTER chance at getting the privy than the non-privy because they can use $$$s to guarantee the get one rather than possibly get shut out by not being in line at the right time.
It also allows the Mint to guarantee they get fair market value for the coins rather than leaving room in the price for a few lucky flippers and dealers. Remember when people hated flippers and wanted them out of the process. They NEVER needed a waiting room. All they ever needed was an auction which would all but guarantee that 95% of coins end up in the retail collectors' hands. No dealer is going to max out their bidding and then hope that someone wants to pay 20% more than the auction.
As for 1995, the collectors were the problem not the Mint. The collectors were mad because they had failed to buy the sets that were available to them. They later realized that it ended up being a key because of the low mintage. If you recall, and even if you don't, the Mint actually sold more gold sets WITHOUT the ASE than with the ASE. The mintage on the ASE stayed low because of the low demand for it among people willing/able to buy the gold as well. If the ASE had been available separately, it would be a $60 coin today with sufficient mintage for everyone who had wanted one.
You are spot on with this. Other than you are failing to take into account they will all have signed COAs. Likely numbered, as with the silver signed COAs. That will make each lot unique, as the Dawn and Dusk lots were, due to each slab having a different coin number. That alone would render a Dutch Auction inappropriate.
That said, where are you getting $15K from? The V75 AGEs go for more than $20K, and the mintage there was almost 10x this, without signed, numbered COAs. The silver medals with the signed COAs, with 8x the mintage, and in silver, not gold, and medal, not coin, were going for $10K+.
These will easily be above $30K, and conceivably above $50K. At that level, absolutely no reason for the Mint to take a haircut on a single one through a Dutch Auction. Because there will certainly be over 200 selling for more than the lowest priced one goes for. With respect to #2 vs. #212, the delta on that one coin alone is likely to be multiple tens of thousands of dollars. #1 will be in a tier by itself, since it is going to come with the die.
$15k is a minimum. I would not be so sure that they get to $50k or higher. You need to consider that ASE and AGE prices don't necessarily correlate due to the fact that those are widely collected series and this is a one off. If you want a complete ASE date/mm set, you need the 1995. You do not need this privy coin to do in any run. They might get north of 25k, but there's no guarantee.
You need the privy coin to complete your privy collection.
Or not, since lots of people have V75 ASEs and AGEs, the new ASEs they are doing with the game company, the FH medal, the 2021 Morgans, etc. But only 230 people will ever be able to have this.
Is everyone really going to dump everything else if they can't have this? Or will they just learn to live without it, at the cost of not having a "complete US Mint privy collection"? I think each product stands on its own, and "privy collection" isn't really a thing. YMMV.
You have the opportunity to buy one at market price. Eminently fair. As you point out, you don't have a chance to win a lottery prize but that mystery box approach is much more "Whatnot" than a traditional auction.
True. But this is not the USM's "purpose" when it comes to Numismatic offerings. This is definitely a change in direction. Their purpose was always to serve the collector, get as much product as widespread in collectors hands as possible--in a fair way.
Who would forget the outrage in 1995 when you had to buy a full gold proof set to get the coveted 1995-W silver eagle? It all started back then. Then websites going down, waiting rooms, etc.
Dont tell me the government cant do a dutch auction with 230 pieces and only allow for 1 to each unique customer at the lowest successful price. The GSA did a huge mail in bid sale (just like a dutch auction with min starting bid) for the sales of CC Morgans in the 1970s.
I guess i'm OK with the auction - but make it fairer to those without deep pockets to have a shot at these coins.
A "Dutch auction" with only 230 coins won't change the outcome. With 17, 500 coins it might. But with only 230 coins, they will essentially all get into the same retail price range. There will be people willing to bid them all up to $15k.
This DOES serve collectors. All collectors have the opportunity to purchase the privy. In fact, they have a BETTER chance at getting the privy than the non-privy because they can use $$$s to guarantee the get one rather than possibly get shut out by not being in line at the right time.
It also allows the Mint to guarantee they get fair market value for the coins rather than leaving room in the price for a few lucky flippers and dealers. Remember when people hated flippers and wanted them out of the process. They NEVER needed a waiting room. All they ever needed was an auction which would all but guarantee that 95% of coins end up in the retail collectors' hands. No dealer is going to max out their bidding and then hope that someone wants to pay 20% more than the auction.
As for 1995, the collectors were the problem not the Mint. The collectors were mad because they had failed to buy the sets that were available to them. They later realized that it ended up being a key because of the low mintage. If you recall, and even if you don't, the Mint actually sold more gold sets WITHOUT the ASE than with the ASE. The mintage on the ASE stayed low because of the low demand for it among people willing/able to buy the gold as well. If the ASE had been available separately, it would be a $60 coin today with sufficient mintage for everyone who had wanted one.
You are spot on with this. Other than you are failing to take into account they will all have signed COAs. Likely numbered, as with the silver signed COAs. That will make each lot unique, as the Dawn and Dusk lots were, due to each slab having a different coin number. That alone would render a Dutch Auction inappropriate.
That said, where are you getting $15K from? The V75 AGEs go for more than $20K, and the mintage there was almost 10x this, without signed, numbered COAs. The silver medals with the signed COAs, with 8x the mintage, and in silver, not gold, and medal, not coin, were going for $10K+.
These will easily be above $30K, and conceivably above $50K. At that level, absolutely no reason for the Mint to take a haircut on a single one through a Dutch Auction. Because there will certainly be over 200 selling for more than the lowest priced one goes for. With respect to #2 vs. #212, the delta on that one coin alone is likely to be multiple tens of thousands of dollars. #1 will be in a tier by itself, since it is going to come with the die.
$15k is a minimum. I would not be so sure that they get to $50k or higher. You need to consider that ASE and AGE prices don't necessarily correlate due to the fact that those are widely collected series and this is a one off. If you want a complete ASE date/mm set, you need the 1995. You do not need this privy coin to do in any run. They might get north of 25k, but there's no guarantee.
You need the privy coin to complete your privy collection.
Or not, since lots of people have V75 ASEs and AGEs, the new ASEs they are doing with the game company, the FH medal, the 2021 Morgans, etc. But only 230 people will ever be able to have this.
Is everyone really going to dump everything else if they can't have this? Or will they just learn to live without it, at the cost of not having a "complete US Mint privy collection"? I think each product stands on its own, and "privy collection" isn't really a thing. YMMV.
Appreciate the follow up, it was a tongue in cheek comment.
As the Mint evolves into a gluttonous retail machine.
You have the opportunity to buy one at market price. Eminently fair. As you point out, you don't have a chance to win a lottery prize but that mystery box approach is much more "Whatnot" than a traditional auction.
True. But this is not the USM's "purpose" when it comes to Numismatic offerings. This is definitely a change in direction. Their purpose was always to serve the collector, get as much product as widespread in collectors hands as possible--in a fair way.
Who would forget the outrage in 1995 when you had to buy a full gold proof set to get the coveted 1995-W silver eagle? It all started back then. Then websites going down, waiting rooms, etc.
Dont tell me the government cant do a dutch auction with 230 pieces and only allow for 1 to each unique customer at the lowest successful price. The GSA did a huge mail in bid sale (just like a dutch auction with min starting bid) for the sales of CC Morgans in the 1970s.
I guess i'm OK with the auction - but make it fairer to those without deep pockets to have a shot at these coins.
A "Dutch auction" with only 230 coins won't change the outcome. With 17, 500 coins it might. But with only 230 coins, they will essentially all get into the same retail price range. There will be people willing to bid them all up to $15k.
This DOES serve collectors. All collectors have the opportunity to purchase the privy. In fact, they have a BETTER chance at getting the privy than the non-privy because they can use $$$s to guarantee the get one rather than possibly get shut out by not being in line at the right time.
It also allows the Mint to guarantee they get fair market value for the coins rather than leaving room in the price for a few lucky flippers and dealers. Remember when people hated flippers and wanted them out of the process. They NEVER needed a waiting room. All they ever needed was an auction which would all but guarantee that 95% of coins end up in the retail collectors' hands. No dealer is going to max out their bidding and then hope that someone wants to pay 20% more than the auction.
As for 1995, the collectors were the problem not the Mint. The collectors were mad because they had failed to buy the sets that were available to them. They later realized that it ended up being a key because of the low mintage. If you recall, and even if you don't, the Mint actually sold more gold sets WITHOUT the ASE than with the ASE. The mintage on the ASE stayed low because of the low demand for it among people willing/able to buy the gold as well. If the ASE had been available separately, it would be a $60 coin today with sufficient mintage for everyone who had wanted one.
You are spot on with this. Other than you are failing to take into account they will all have signed COAs. Likely numbered, as with the silver signed COAs. That will make each lot unique, as the Dawn and Dusk lots were, due to each slab having a different coin number. That alone would render a Dutch Auction inappropriate.
That said, where are you getting $15K from? The V75 AGEs go for more than $20K, and the mintage there was almost 10x this, without signed, numbered COAs. The silver medals with the signed COAs, with 8x the mintage, and in silver, not gold, and medal, not coin, were going for $10K+.
These will easily be above $30K, and conceivably above $50K. At that level, absolutely no reason for the Mint to take a haircut on a single one through a Dutch Auction. Because there will certainly be over 200 selling for more than the lowest priced one goes for. With respect to #2 vs. #212, the delta on that one coin alone is likely to be multiple tens of thousands of dollars. #1 will be in a tier by itself, since it is going to come with the die.
$15k is a minimum. I would not be so sure that they get to $50k or higher. You need to consider that ASE and AGE prices don't necessarily correlate due to the fact that those are widely collected series and this is a one off. If you want a complete ASE date/mm set, you need the 1995. You do not need this privy coin to do in any run. They might get north of 25k, but there's no guarantee.
You need the privy coin to complete your privy collection.
Or not, since lots of people have V75 ASEs and AGEs, the new ASEs they are doing with the game company, the FH medal, the 2021 Morgans, etc. But only 230 people will ever be able to have this.
Is everyone really going to dump everything else if they can't have this? Or will they just learn to live without it, at the cost of not having a "complete US Mint privy collection"? I think each product stands on its own, and "privy collection" isn't really a thing. YMMV.
Appreciate the follow up, it was a tongue in cheek comment.
As the Mint evolves into a gluttonous retail machine.
Totally agree with you!!! Especially by squeezing every last dollar out of us with respect to the premiums in general. What happened this year with the Morgan and Peace Dollars absolutely serves them right.
OTOH, I do think this privy auction is a totally brilliant way for them to capitalize on the demand for hyper premium product. Keeping the money for themselves (the taxpayers) rather than using it as yet another vehicle to shovel unearned excess profits into the hands of favored dealers. Allowing the rest of us to fight over a few scraps in order to justify it.
I'd love to have one, but wouldn't chase it at a fraction of what they are going to sell for. Which doesn't mean I begrudge anyone who wants one and can afford it, or that I think the Mint shouldn't satisfy the demand, given the crazy amount of money involved. Why anyone who can't afford one, or any dealer not receiving a windfall from a Mint related to it, would care about the Mint does with the select few customers interested in something like this, is a real mystery to me.
Not sure if it was @NJCoin who suggested this might happen or someone else, but has anyone yet seen any evidence of fraudulent "sealed" from-the-Mint packages offered in resale market? Although undoubtedly a criminal violation of U.S. Code, it can't be too hard to fake a mailing label and approximate the correct bubble envelope?
(Note: just curious. Haven't seen this myself and obviously wouldn't do it!!)
@joepabike said:
Not sure if it was @NJCoin who suggested this might happen or someone else, but has anyone yet seen any evidence of fraudulent "sealed" from-the-Mint packages offered in resale market? Although undoubtedly a criminal violation of U.S. Code, it can't be too hard to fake a mailing label and approximate the correct bubble envelope?
(Note: just curious. Haven't seen this myself and obviously wouldn't do it!!)
@joepabike said:
Not sure if it was @NJCoin who suggested this might happen or someone else, but has anyone yet seen any evidence of fraudulent "sealed" from-the-Mint packages offered in resale market? Although undoubtedly a criminal violation of U.S. Code, it can't be too hard to fake a mailing label and approximate the correct bubble envelope?
(Note: just curious. Haven't seen this myself and obviously wouldn't do it!!)
I did suggest it might happen. If it does, I'm not sure how anyone would ever be able to produce any evidence. The possibility is just another reason I'd never get involved.
To me, the whole "sealed package" eBay market is kind of scammy. They sell for far more than economic value, due to @jmlanzaf's so-called "fun premium."
Breaking the seal destroys the value, unless you pull a winner. Which is a long shot even if the game is not rigged.
So the whole game is just playing hot potato with the sealed package until people lose interest and stop playing. Scammy.
I think the purest essence of numismatic enthusiasm is finding an obscure issue to argue about and never give up
I don't know...VaultBox brought me nothing but the ban hammer! I finally got beaten in to submission and now I don't care about this forum as much anymore. 🙄
Found there is much more to do in life then sit around looking at coins and argue with members on here who believe theirs is the only opinion that matters.
Going outside now to enjoy the sunshine and fresh air! I highly recommend it!😎
I think the purest essence of numismatic enthusiasm is finding an obscure issue to argue about and never give up
I don't know...VaultBox brought me nothing but the ban hammer! I finally got beaten in to submission and now I don't care about this forum as much anymore. 🙄
Found there is much more to do in life then sit around looking at coins and argue with members on here who believe theirs is the only opinion that matters.
Going outside now to enjoy the sunshine and fresh air! I highly recommend it!😎
And yet, you feel compelled to come on to the forum to post about what a waste of time posting on the forum is. 🤣
Because "the forum" cares about how much you care about it. 🤣
Similar to when you choose to place people on Ignore. It's not enough to just do it. You also have to announce it to the world. And solicit others to do the same.
Seemingly because you can't just march to your own drum. You also need validation from the internet.
This hobby has entertained me for more than 50 years....never broke away from it more than 6 months or so and only a few times when other things in life were more important.
I introduced my kids to it - one enjoyed it very much and absorbed everything I taught him about it, the other not so much.
Unfortunately, I lost my son a few years ago, he loved coins and we would speak about it all the time. I miss him very much and I almost completely lost all the enjoyment out of collecting coins after that unexpected tragedy.
After some time had passed, I was bitten again by the collecting bug, it kept me busy and my mind in the right place.
Let's continue to have fun and talk about the issues on this forum, we all love the hobby, who cares about who is eventually right or wrong. It's all in good fun.
@coiner said:
This hobby has entertained me for more than 50 years....never broke away from it more than 6 months or so and only a few times when other things in life were more important.
I introduced my kids to it - one enjoyed it very much and absorbed everything I taught him about it, the other not so much.
Unfortunately, I lost my son a few years ago, he loved coins and we would speak about it all the time. I miss him very much and I almost completely lost all the enjoyment out of collecting coins after that unexpected tragedy.
After some time had passed, I was bitten again by the collecting bug, it kept me busy and my mind in the right place.
Let's continue to have fun and talk about the issues on this forum, we all love the hobby, who cares about who is eventually right or wrong. It's all in good fun.
@coiner said:
Ill be in Baltimore this week - I can give the first hand account of any lines forming Thursday at the Mint Booth for the Gold Flowing Hair
Thanks! There will be a line, because there is always a line. It will clear, because it always clears.
The valuable news will be a report on whether or not they sell out at the show. A sell out at the show will be a powerful indicator of demand, and a great heads-up to get one from the website while we can.
Conversely, the failure to sell out will also be a powerful indicator of market demand for 17,500 coins at $3,700 each. Particularly once the HHL is lifted on Friday, assuming they don't sell out on Thursday.
Not the be-all, end-all, since I don't think the 2023 American Liberty High Relief Gold coins sold out at the ANA last year, and it did go on to become a winner. But not nothing, given the 2023 sold for a lot less (<$2,900), and they made a lot fewer of them (12,500).
@coiner said:
Ill be in Baltimore this week - I can give the first hand account of any lines forming Thursday at the Mint Booth for the Gold Flowing Hair
Thanks! There will be a line, because there is always a line. It will clear, because it always clears.
The valuable news will be a report on whether or not they sell out at the show. A sell out at the show will be a powerful indicator of demand, and a great heads-up to get one from the website while we can.
Conversely, the failure to sell out will also be a powerful indicator of market demand for 17,500 coins at $3,700 each. Particularly once the HHL is lifted on Friday, assuming they don't sell out on Thursday.
Not the be-all, end-all, since I don't think the 2023 American Liberty High Relief Gold coins sold out at the ANA last year, and it did go on to become a winner. But not nothing, given the 2023 sold for a lot less (<$2,900), and they made a lot fewer of them (12,500).
If you mean by Friday afternoon in Baltimore, a sellout is all but assured assuming the HHL is lifted after 24 hours.
It will be interesting to gauge the reaction Thursday night (when you'll likely be able to grab one before the HHL lifts). I'm assuming we'll see some buy offers soon. And different buy offers after the sellout.
@coiner said:
Ill be in Baltimore this week - I can give the first hand account of any lines forming Thursday at the Mint Booth for the Gold Flowing Hair
Thanks! There will be a line, because there is always a line. It will clear, because it always clears.
The valuable news will be a report on whether or not they sell out at the show. A sell out at the show will be a powerful indicator of demand, and a great heads-up to get one from the website while we can.
Conversely, the failure to sell out will also be a powerful indicator of market demand for 17,500 coins at $3,700 each. Particularly once the HHL is lifted on Friday, assuming they don't sell out on Thursday.
Not the be-all, end-all, since I don't think the 2023 American Liberty High Relief Gold coins sold out at the ANA last year, and it did go on to become a winner. But not nothing, given the 2023 sold for a lot less (<$2,900), and they made a lot fewer of them (12,500).
If you mean by Friday afternoon in Baltimore, a sellout is all but assured assuming the HHL is lifted after 24 hours.
It will be interesting to gauge the reaction Thursday night (when you'll likely be able to grab one before the HHL lifts). I'm assuming we'll see some buy offers soon. And different buy offers after the sellout.
TBD. And, you never really know. The 2023 coin did not sell out during the entire course of the show, even though the mintage was lower at 12,500, the price was lower at $2865, the HHL was higher at 3, the show was longer, and the 2021 was already selling for a substantial premium.
It did eventually sell out, and goes for a substantial premium today. I'd just be careful drawing parallels between this and the silver medal, selling for $104 as opposed to $3700, and coming with a free lottery ticket worth $3K+. Apples and a lottery ticket.
The fact that LCR is offering FDOI 70s from all the major TPGs for $5400 indicates they already locked in a supply, won't be making buy offers anytime soon, and want to sell what they can for what they can get, in case they don't sell out. Because 17,500 at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold is not really leaving a lot of upside, which might actually depress demand.
My guess is original buy offers won't be much over $4,000. But I do think after the sell out and before Thanksgiving we could easily see $5k.
In this day and age $3,700 is not a huge amount of money. There are tens of thousands of collectors that could easily snatch one or two up if they want. Hell I'm a bottom feeder and I'm getting one.
First ever high relief flowing hair coin from the US Mint? It'll be a good one.
@VanHalen said:
My guess is original buy offers won't be much over $4,000. But I do think after the sell out and before Thanksgiving we could easily see $5k.
In this day and age $3,700 is not a huge amount of money. There are tens of thousands of collectors that could easily snatch one or two up if they want. Hell I'm a bottom feeder and I'm getting one.
First ever high relief flowing hair coin from the US Mint? It'll be a good one.
100% agree. These are unique. Demand cannot be compared to prior tree and bucking horse design
I think the purest essence of numismatic enthusiasm is finding an obscure issue to argue about and never give up
I don't know...VaultBox brought me nothing but the ban hammer! I finally got beaten in to submission and now I don't care about this forum as much anymore. 🙄
Found there is much more to do in life then sit around looking at coins and argue with members on here who believe theirs is the only opinion that matters.
Going outside now to enjoy the sunshine and fresh air! I highly recommend it!😎
I’ve been on the fence with this coin. I like it a lot.
I’ve been wanting a live scope fish finder both about the same cost. After reading Freddie’s post I think I have my decision. I’m going the Live scope route
Martin
Edited to add I usually don’t agree with Freddie much
@VanHalen said:
My guess is original buy offers won't be much over $4,000. But I do think after the sell out and before Thanksgiving we could easily see $5k.
In this day and age $3,700 is not a huge amount of money. There are tens of thousands of collectors that could easily snatch one or two up if they want. Hell I'm a bottom feeder and I'm getting one.
First ever high relief flowing hair coin from the US Mint? It'll be a good one.
We'll see. $3,700 might not be a huge amount for a single collector coin if you are doing well. Otherwise, it's a few mortgage payments or months rent. A $1,000 premium over the record high price of the gold it contains is not insignificant. Given those two facts, trying to move 17,500 is ambitious.
I don't think there has been a rapid sell out of a gold coin since AGE proofs, back in the day before the Mint exploded premiums. Gold was also a LOT less expensive back then.
So, we'll see. If you take your cue from the silver medal with the lottery ticket, these will be gone by 12:02 p.m. on Friday. If you look at ANY gold coin they offered in the past 10 years or so, whether or not they went on to have legs in the secondary market, everyone will be able to buy as many as they want. Including dealers. For at least a few weeks.
Which means no dealer will be offering premiums. Not $4K. Not $5K. At least not unless and until telemarketers are looking for quantity in the future. My evidence is that we are less than a week out, and no dealer feels the need to try to lock in quantity from the public now. On top of that, LCR is offering FDOI 70s, from every leading TPG, at far less than 2x.
This tells me all dealers have likely locked in what they need for now. And, whether or not these go on to sell out and be winners, at least LCR is not expecting a home run out of the box.
Anyone like you who wants one because they love it and want it for their collection should absolutely grab one on Thursday, rather than waiting around to see what happens. But anyone throwing $3700 on a credit card on spec, hoping to score $300-500 before it arrives, and returning it otherwise, is likely wasting their time and a trip to the post office. JMHO.
FWIW, PFS is already offering $50 commission for the FHG, albeit for a limited quantity. They tend to offer the least, so I think we could certainly see +$200 from other buyers on Friday. Their offer will also drive interest from people who just want credit card spend, increasing the likelihood of a sell out on Friday (if not day 1).
@VanHalen said:
My guess is original buy offers won't be much over $4,000. But I do think after the sell out and before Thanksgiving we could easily see $5k.
In this day and age $3,700 is not a huge amount of money. There are tens of thousands of collectors that could easily snatch one or two up if they want. Hell I'm a bottom feeder and I'm getting one.
First ever high relief flowing hair coin from the US Mint? It'll be a good one.
100% agree. These are unique. Demand cannot be compared to prior tree and bucking horse design
They are unique. As were the tree and horse. Both of which ended up doing very well in the secondary market.
What all the gold coins have in common, though, is that they are very expensive. None more so than this one.
Highest dollar premium. Ever. Highest spot price of gold. Ever. Higher mintage than the other two gold coins. By almost 50%.
The Mint is betting that the market will accept that. You agree. I'm less sure.
Not saying it can't happen. I am saying that, even if it does, it will cap everyone's upside.
As evidenced by LCR offering FDOI 70s at only a 30% premium to issue price before we even know what is going to happen with a sell out. Clearly not a slam dunk obvious home run to them.
They are trying to cash out while they can. I'm not sure when they threw them up on their website, but 5 different flavors from 3 different TPGs, plus one Advance Release at a higher premium, are all available for sale from them as I write this on Sunday morning, 4 days before release. Not a single version has yet sold out at $5,385.10, $5,581.10 with a signature label, and $6,169.10 for Advance Release.
If they all sell out before noon on Thursday, you might be on to something. Otherwise, it will tell me they are fully priced, if not over priced, at whatever the Mint will be charging. And that 17,500 will likely not sell out immediately after the HHL is lifted, if at all.
After that, I really don't have an opinion. Yes, it's not a tree or a horse, but there will be 5,000 more of them floating around.
The trees and horses have done well, so these can too. But they will have to overcome another 5,000 in the market in order to do so. At a far higher original issue price. That might be too much to expect.
@changeofpace said:
FWIW, PFS is already offering $50 commission for the FHG, albeit for a limited quantity. They tend to offer the least, so I think we could certainly see +$200 from other buyers on Friday. Their offer will also drive interest from people who just want credit card spend, increasing the likelihood of a sell out on Friday (if not day 1).
Flippers who get 2% cashback will earn $75 in cc $ with their purchase also. We know a lot of buyers are flippers driving sales.
@changeofpace said:
FWIW, PFS is already offering $50 commission for the FHG, albeit for a limited quantity. They tend to offer the least, so I think we could certainly see +$200 from other buyers on Friday. Their offer will also drive interest from people who just want credit card spend, increasing the likelihood of a sell out on Friday (if not day 1).
Flippers who get 2% cashback will earn $75 in cc $ with their purchase also. We know a lot of buyers are flippers driving sales.
True. But it's a lot of money to tie up on spec to maybe make 10%.
The 2% doesn't exist if the coin is returned, so it's not a consideration. It's just a bonus if the coin turns out to be a winner.
If it turns out too many people are buying to flip, there won't be anyone to flip to. As we saw with the silver medals, the ABPP and initial HHL of 1 actually work to ensure anyone who wants one has 24 hours to easily obtain one from the Mint at original issue price.
That kills the flip unless there is not sufficient quantity available to satisfy actual collector demand. It's still unclear to me whether the silver medal flip is due to 50K or 75K being insufficient to satisfy demand, or whether the market is just being propped up by people holding them off the market, speculating that 25K will never be made and that will support higher future prices.
In any event, LCR's offering tells me that they might think there won't be a flip for us with these, at this mintage, this premium, and this price. Because the premium they are asking for what they are offering seems very reasonable if these are going to be worth more than $4K raw sometime Friday afternoon. TBD.
@changeofpace said:
FWIW, PFS is already offering $50 commission for the FHG, albeit for a limited quantity. They tend to offer the least, so I think we could certainly see +$200 from other buyers on Friday. Their offer will also drive interest from people who just want credit card spend, increasing the likelihood of a sell out on Friday (if not day 1).
Flippers who get 2% cashback will earn $75 in cc $ with their purchase also. We know a lot of buyers are flippers driving sales.
True. But it's a lot of money to tie up on spec to maybe make 10%.
The 2% doesn't exist if the coin is returned, so it's not a consideration. It's just a bonus if the coin turns out to be a winner. If it turns out too many people are buying to flip, there won't be anyone to flip to. LCR's offering tells me that might be the case with these, at this mintage, this premium, and this price. TBD.
Good points all. We'll see. My guess is the hype from the silver medal will carry over and the little dip in the gold prices won't hurt. 😀 This release is more comparable to the 2009 UHR with a mintage of 114,000+. I recall paying a 40% premium to melt on it, cost me $1,250!
Cracked my medal out of the original plastic …. Where it stands on edge in the window ledge. It is posed to hide the flaws from being in my pocket. A not so “true view.”
Go for the gold !
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
Just my luck, I will order the gold and end up with one missing the edge lettering.
So you're very very very lucky????
I guess I am. Considering since the inception of the Innovation Dollar series, there has only been (to my knowledge) one found ….and graded at PCGS with Missing Edge Lettering. And it was a collector who cherry-picked me. But he was gracious enough to sell it back to me. That’s for another thread. Wouldn’t it be something, though ?
@changeofpace said:
FWIW, PFS is already offering $50 commission for the FHG, albeit for a limited quantity. They tend to offer the least, so I think we could certainly see +$200 from other buyers on Friday. Their offer will also drive interest from people who just want credit card spend, increasing the likelihood of a sell out on Friday (if not day 1).
A whopping $50 on a $3,700 outlay, with a limit? Where do I sign up? 🤣🤣🤣
That offer is absolute garbage, and isn't going to drive anything. Is it even serious? And don't they have a history of backing out and sticking people?
If it would actually increase the likelihood of a Friday sell out, it will also increase the likelihood of lots of returns to the Mint a week later, when they get slammed with returns after a secondary market for raw coins fails to develop at $4K+ and PFS closes the window on its generous offer. And as dealers who can buy at a discount directly from the Mint have no interest at all in buying from the public at even original issue price, let alone a premium to it.
PFS is a scam. They have no idea what they are doing, and are just guessing because they don't understand the difference between this and the silver medal with the privy kicker.
They will figure it out and pull their commission offer. People thinking they will be selling to them at a premium will find themselves stuck, and will end up returning what they buy to the Mint. Anyone paying a premium to the issue price based on something like this is almost certain to get hurt.
Where was PFS last month, when anyone could have bought one in the first 24 hours, and they actually had a valuable lottery ticket? Nowhere, because they don't understand our market, and just chase whatever they think is hot.
Based on that, they think this is Round 2, and they are dipping their toe in the water. But they are wrong.
This time, they are 35x more expensive, there is no lottery ticket, and preliminary dealer pricing indicates they will not be in the secondary market looking to buy from the likes of PFS. They seemingly have what they need, and are sellers, not buyers. Once PFS figures that out, their offer is going to evaporate.
People buying for a flip might distort the initial market if PFS is not alone in promoting this. But it will straighten out quickly, given that the Mint is apparently ready to ship.
So there will not be a multi-week period for people to mess around, testing the market with pre-sales to see whether there is demand. And that's assuming you are right about buying club offers driving an early sell out.
People will only have a week to return. The market will be flooded with sellers, and they will have no choice but to return if they are not buying because they want them, but because, based on a lottery last month, they think these will have legs at $3700.
Edit -- I just Googled PFS and learned of their recent issues involving concert ticket resales. They are a totally unethical scam.
When things go well members' profits are capped, as agreed, PFS makes the lion's share of the profit, and everyone is happy. When things go south for PFS, members lose their deal, are lucky if they get their money back, and seemingly are sometimes expected to share losses with PFS.
Prototypical heads they win, tails you lose coin toss. As a result, I'd never look at any of their offers, or do anything based on them. YMMV. Good luck.
A whopping $50 on a $3,700 outlay, with a limit? Where do I sign up? 🤣🤣🤣
That offer is absolute garbage, and isn't going to drive anything. Is it even serious? And don't they have a history of backing out and sticking people?
I've never sold anything to PFS and wouldn't recommend them to anyone. That said, they've been buying coins for at least 8 years. I'm not aware of them backing out of coin deals, but you rightly bring up the ticket debacle where they royally botched things and fried their credibility.
In any case, my point wasn't to recommend them, it was to say that their offer provides a backstop for flippers. You scoff at $50, but that's a signal to flippers to back up the truck. Had there been such a public offer for the silver flowing hair, or even an offer to pay cost, you would've seen the ~4,400 coins that were in stock when the HHL was lifted evaporate in under 15 seconds.
Gold just dropped significantly so the price might not be as high as previously indicated this Thursday. You can buy a flowing hair gold for $3,640-$3,690 depending on the grid result and spend another $113 to get it graded at PCGS.
It is amazing that people are paying more than $5,400 for graded presales currently on eBay. Actual recently sold data.
Comments
As a tribute to the number of years that have elapsed since the Flowing Hair dollar coin was introduced, the Mint will also auction 230 one ounce, high relief, 24-karat gold coins with a “230” privy mark on December 12, 2024. The first coin will be auctioned with the die in a custom-made display box. Each of the coins will be accompanied by a certificate of authenticity hand-signed by the Honorable Ventris C. Gibson, Director of the United States Mint. Additional details about this special auction will be released at a later date.
and what are the rules for such an auction?
one per buyer? as high as they go in price?
or will it be like a dutch auction of 200+ with limit of 1 and lowest successful bid will be the price?
hmmm so many possibilities....
If it's like what they did last time, it will literally be one lot auctioned right after the other, until all 230 are gone.
One at a time, each with its own individually signed and numbered COA. You'll be able to buy one or all of them, as high as they go in price.
Because that's how auctions work. And because the idea here is to maximize revenue for the Mint. Not to widely distribute them, or to give anyone a deal.
For that, we had the silver medal, one per customer for the first 24 hours, with an embedded lottery ticket for a prize, sold at a price far below what everyone knew the prizes would be worth. Which is why they sold out 2 minutes after the HHL was lifted.
An auction is to allow the market to set the price, and to allow those willing to pay the most to accumulate as many as they want. Other than the one with the die, which will go for absolutely crazy money, it's reasonable to assume that prices will be determined by COA number.
With the first 20 or so going for a lot more than the rest, and them basically settling into a range after the first 50-100. Because, for people who care about COA number, will there really be a difference in perceived value between #110 and 210?
Not by a dutch auction, with everyone able to buy one at the lowest price that clears all 230. They didn't do that the last time, and they won't be doing that this time. We are talking about 230. Not 2300 or 23,000. Not unmanageable to sell them in a single live online auction session, one at a time, lasting no more than a few hours from start to finish.
Not really so many possibilities after all. Because they are not going to be sold as 230 fungible lots. Each will have its own individually numbered COA. #1 will be worth more than #10, which will sell for more than #20, etc.
Also, the last time they were slabbed by both NGC and PCGS. If they do that again, grade and TPG will also determine price. I think there is a very strong possibility they will do that again, because it costs them very little, and gives them the opportunity to also capture the premium associated with 70s. Stay tuned.
.> @coiner said:
I don't like this idea. Now the Mint is possibly becoming an Ebay/Whatnot/Etsy bidding platform where the rich get richer and the have nots have no shot of winning one or more of these auctions.
Love the lottery opportunity. Feel like a collector who doesn't have deep pockets still has a shot of obtaining one even if the odds are slim.
You have the opportunity to buy one at market price. Eminently fair. As you point out, you don't have a chance to win a lottery prize but that mystery box approach is much more "Whatnot" than a traditional auction.
I was referring to the privy coin. I may be wrong but I believe this is the first time the Mint has released a product only by auction and I feel it is blatantly unfair to a collector with limited funds for their hobby and it sets a bad precedent.
Also, they may have killed demand for the non privy since there is no lottery now. A better marketing plan would be to sell half at auction and the rest insert randomly with the non privy to give us all a chance to get a privy.
Will be interesting to watch how this unfoldd but I believe the non privy will not sell out or if they do it will take weeks not days.
True. But this is not the USM's "purpose" when it comes to Numismatic offerings. This is definitely a change in direction. Their purpose was always to serve the collector, get as much product as widespread in collectors hands as possible--in a fair way.
Who would forget the outrage in 1995 when you had to buy a full gold proof set to get the coveted 1995-W silver eagle? It all started back then. Then websites going down, waiting rooms, etc.
Dont tell me the government cant do a dutch auction with 230 pieces and only allow for 1 to each unique customer at the lowest successful price. The GSA did a huge mail in bid sale (just like a dutch auction with min starting bid) for the sales of CC Morgans in the 1970s.
I guess i'm OK with the auction - but make it fairer to those without deep pockets to have a shot at these coins.
I know that one. That does not say anything about omitting In God We Trust and E Pluribus Unum though. Especially since every other 24k gold coin had a motto and they omitted it for silver medals
Again, I am NOT a lawyer. And, I could very well be interpreting it incorrectly.
That said, to me, it says that the Secretary has "discretion" with respect to "inscriptions" on "other" gold coins.
Sent mine in for grading and just got the TV (MS70):
The Mint's "purpose" is evolving as it becomes a little more market savvy over time. Premiums have exploded over the past 10 years or so, as the Mint has discovered it was leaving mucho bucks on the table for flippers.
They transitioned to charging what the market will bear. Sometimes overshooting the mark, as with the 2024 Morgan and Peace Dollars, but generally getting it about right. Basically killing flips in the process.
The lottery with the privys is actually the first time they ever did something like that, signed COAs accompanying a few Peace Dollars last year aside. In the old days, they would just throw something limited and good on the website, let us fight with the bots over them, and to the victor went the spoils.
When they did the change over to the new gold and silver eagle reverses in 2021, they realized there as a super premium market for coins with specific attributions, and they sold them at auction at what the market would bear. That's what this is. An adjunct to their "numismatic purpose," specifically for those willing to pay and play.
Throwing 2 million W quarters into circulation, and then letting the @WQuarterFreddie's of the world game that by grabbing them from boxes at banks before they hit the street was one thing, because that was low stakes poker. But this is serious money, and they are doing it specifically to exploit a market and generate some serious money for themselves.
Not to engineer a giveaway for a select few, or to make them accessible to people who cannot otherwise afford them. Most of whom ultimately do not resist the opportunity to cash in and sell to those who can afford them. The Mint knows this, because they also have people who read forums like this, and see what's happening on eBay.
So lets not conflate the general mission or purpose of the numismatic program with this. This is nothing more than feeding a teeny tiny subset of the market with a hyper premium product, at a hyper premium price.
There is no mandate that they randomly seed $50,000 dollar coins in with $3,700 coins, in order to create a market for us to sell sealed packages we obtain from them for $3,700 on eBay for $10K+. They could also just do that themselves if they wanted to (give us odds, and price sealed boxes accordingly, complete with "fun" premium built on top of lottery odds and numismatic premium, capturing everything for itself). In which case they would actually become VB. Which also would not be satisfying any numismatic purpose.
If you want one, you go buy one at auction. Otherwise, forget it. It's not for you, and was never meant for you. Only 230 people in the world will ever have one at any given point in time. Period.
A "Dutch auction" with only 230 coins won't change the outcome. With 17, 500 coins it might. But with only 230 coins, they will essentially all get into the same retail price range. There will be people willing to bid them all up to $15k.
This DOES serve collectors. All collectors have the opportunity to purchase the privy. In fact, they have a BETTER chance at getting the privy than the non-privy because they can use $$$s to guarantee the get one rather than possibly get shut out by not being in line at the right time.
It also allows the Mint to guarantee they get fair market value for the coins rather than leaving room in the price for a few lucky flippers and dealers. Remember when people hated flippers and wanted them out of the process. They NEVER needed a waiting room. All they ever needed was an auction which would all but guarantee that 95% of coins end up in the retail collectors' hands. No dealer is going to max out their bidding and then hope that someone wants to pay 20% more than the auction.
As for 1995, the collectors were the problem not the Mint. The collectors were mad because they had failed to buy the sets that were available to them. They later realized that it ended up being a key because of the low mintage. If you recall, and even if you don't, the Mint actually sold more gold sets WITHOUT the ASE than with the ASE. The mintage on the ASE stayed low because of the low demand for it among people willing/able to buy the gold as well. If the ASE had been available separately, it would be a $60 coin today with sufficient mintage for everyone who had wanted one.
You are spot on with this. Other than you are failing to take into account they will all have signed COAs. Likely numbered, as with the silver signed COAs. That will make each lot unique, as the Dawn and Dusk lots were, due to each slab having a different coin number. That alone would render a Dutch Auction inappropriate.
That said, where are you getting $15K from? The V75 AGEs go for more than $20K, and the mintage there was almost 10x this, without signed, numbered COAs. The silver medals with the signed COAs, with 8x the mintage, and in silver, not gold, and medal, not coin, were going for $10K+.
These will easily be above $30K, and conceivably above $50K. At that level, absolutely no reason for the Mint to take a haircut on a single one through a Dutch Auction. Because there will certainly be over 200 selling for more than the lowest priced one goes for. With respect to #2 vs. #212, the delta on that one coin alone is likely to be multiple tens of thousands of dollars. #1 will be in a tier by itself, since it is going to come with the die.
Yep, things are different now. We can't continue to expect businesses (even govt businesses) to leave money on the table. Why should the mint sell a coin for $100 that the market values at $5000? Concert venues used to underprice event tickets, now the market determines what the premium seats go for.
$15k is a minimum. I would not be so sure that they get to $50k or higher. You need to consider that ASE and AGE prices don't necessarily correlate due to the fact that those are widely collected series and this is a one off. If you want a complete ASE date/mm set, you need the 1995. You do not need this privy coin to do in any run. They might get north of 25k, but there's no guarantee.
You need the privy coin to complete your privy collection.
Or not, since lots of people have V75 ASEs and AGEs, the new ASEs they are doing with the game company, the FH medal, the 2021 Morgans, etc. But only 230 people will ever be able to have this.
Is everyone really going to dump everything else if they can't have this? Or will they just learn to live without it, at the cost of not having a "complete US Mint privy collection"? I think each product stands on its own, and "privy collection" isn't really a thing. YMMV.
Appreciate the follow up, it was a tongue in cheek comment.
As the Mint evolves into a gluttonous retail machine.
Totally agree with you!!! Especially by squeezing every last dollar out of us with respect to the premiums in general. What happened this year with the Morgan and Peace Dollars absolutely serves them right.
OTOH, I do think this privy auction is a totally brilliant way for them to capitalize on the demand for hyper premium product. Keeping the money for themselves (the taxpayers) rather than using it as yet another vehicle to shovel unearned excess profits into the hands of favored dealers. Allowing the rest of us to fight over a few scraps in order to justify it.
I'd love to have one, but wouldn't chase it at a fraction of what they are going to sell for. Which doesn't mean I begrudge anyone who wants one and can afford it, or that I think the Mint shouldn't satisfy the demand, given the crazy amount of money involved. Why anyone who can't afford one, or any dealer not receiving a windfall from a Mint related to it, would care about the Mint does with the select few customers interested in something like this, is a real mystery to me.
Not sure if it was @NJCoin who suggested this might happen or someone else, but has anyone yet seen any evidence of fraudulent "sealed" from-the-Mint packages offered in resale market? Although undoubtedly a criminal violation of U.S. Code, it can't be too hard to fake a mailing label and approximate the correct bubble envelope?
(Note: just curious. Haven't seen this myself and obviously wouldn't do it!!)
I'm sure someone has done it. Meh.
I did suggest it might happen. If it does, I'm not sure how anyone would ever be able to produce any evidence. The possibility is just another reason I'd never get involved.
To me, the whole "sealed package" eBay market is kind of scammy. They sell for far more than economic value, due to @jmlanzaf's so-called "fun premium."
Breaking the seal destroys the value, unless you pull a winner. Which is a long shot even if the game is not rigged.
So the whole game is just playing hot potato with the sealed package until people lose interest and stop playing. Scammy.
I think the purest essence of numismatic enthusiasm is finding an obscure issue to argue about and never give up
.> @tcollects said:
I don't know...VaultBox brought me nothing but the ban hammer! I finally got beaten in to submission and now I don't care about this forum as much anymore. 🙄
Found there is much more to do in life then sit around looking at coins and argue with members on here who believe theirs is the only opinion that matters.
Going outside now to enjoy the sunshine and fresh air! I highly recommend it!😎
And yet, you feel compelled to come on to the forum to post about what a waste of time posting on the forum is. 🤣
Because "the forum" cares about how much you care about it. 🤣
Similar to when you choose to place people on Ignore. It's not enough to just do it. You also have to announce it to the world. And solicit others to do the same.
Seemingly because you can't just march to your own drum. You also need validation from the internet.
This hobby has entertained me for more than 50 years....never broke away from it more than 6 months or so and only a few times when other things in life were more important.
I introduced my kids to it - one enjoyed it very much and absorbed everything I taught him about it, the other not so much.
Unfortunately, I lost my son a few years ago, he loved coins and we would speak about it all the time. I miss him very much and I almost completely lost all the enjoyment out of collecting coins after that unexpected tragedy.
After some time had passed, I was bitten again by the collecting bug, it kept me busy and my mind in the right place.
Let's continue to have fun and talk about the issues on this forum, we all love the hobby, who cares about who is eventually right or wrong. It's all in good fun.
So sorry about the loss of your son.
good reminder to focus on what's important in life
Ill be in Baltimore this week - I can give the first hand account of any lines forming Thursday at the Mint Booth for the Gold Flowing Hair
Thanks! There will be a line, because there is always a line. It will clear, because it always clears.
The valuable news will be a report on whether or not they sell out at the show. A sell out at the show will be a powerful indicator of demand, and a great heads-up to get one from the website while we can.
Conversely, the failure to sell out will also be a powerful indicator of market demand for 17,500 coins at $3,700 each. Particularly once the HHL is lifted on Friday, assuming they don't sell out on Thursday.
Not the be-all, end-all, since I don't think the 2023 American Liberty High Relief Gold coins sold out at the ANA last year, and it did go on to become a winner. But not nothing, given the 2023 sold for a lot less (<$2,900), and they made a lot fewer of them (12,500).
If you mean by Friday afternoon in Baltimore, a sellout is all but assured assuming the HHL is lifted after 24 hours.
It will be interesting to gauge the reaction Thursday night (when you'll likely be able to grab one before the HHL lifts). I'm assuming we'll see some buy offers soon. And different buy offers after the sellout.
TBD. And, you never really know. The 2023 coin did not sell out during the entire course of the show, even though the mintage was lower at 12,500, the price was lower at $2865, the HHL was higher at 3, the show was longer, and the 2021 was already selling for a substantial premium.
It did eventually sell out, and goes for a substantial premium today. I'd just be careful drawing parallels between this and the silver medal, selling for $104 as opposed to $3700, and coming with a free lottery ticket worth $3K+. Apples and a lottery ticket.
The fact that LCR is offering FDOI 70s from all the major TPGs for $5400 indicates they already locked in a supply, won't be making buy offers anytime soon, and want to sell what they can for what they can get, in case they don't sell out. Because 17,500 at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold is not really leaving a lot of upside, which might actually depress demand.
My guess is original buy offers won't be much over $4,000. But I do think after the sell out and before Thanksgiving we could easily see $5k.
In this day and age $3,700 is not a huge amount of money. There are tens of thousands of collectors that could easily snatch one or two up if they want. Hell I'm a bottom feeder and I'm getting one.
First ever high relief flowing hair coin from the US Mint? It'll be a good one.
100% agree. These are unique. Demand cannot be compared to prior tree and bucking horse design
I’ve been on the fence with this coin. I like it a lot.
I’ve been wanting a live scope fish finder both about the same cost. After reading Freddie’s post I think I have my decision. I’m going the Live scope route
Martin
Edited to add I usually don’t agree with Freddie much
We'll see. $3,700 might not be a huge amount for a single collector coin if you are doing well. Otherwise, it's a few mortgage payments or months rent. A $1,000 premium over the record high price of the gold it contains is not insignificant. Given those two facts, trying to move 17,500 is ambitious.
I don't think there has been a rapid sell out of a gold coin since AGE proofs, back in the day before the Mint exploded premiums. Gold was also a LOT less expensive back then.
So, we'll see. If you take your cue from the silver medal with the lottery ticket, these will be gone by 12:02 p.m. on Friday. If you look at ANY gold coin they offered in the past 10 years or so, whether or not they went on to have legs in the secondary market, everyone will be able to buy as many as they want. Including dealers. For at least a few weeks.
Which means no dealer will be offering premiums. Not $4K. Not $5K. At least not unless and until telemarketers are looking for quantity in the future. My evidence is that we are less than a week out, and no dealer feels the need to try to lock in quantity from the public now. On top of that, LCR is offering FDOI 70s, from every leading TPG, at far less than 2x.
This tells me all dealers have likely locked in what they need for now. And, whether or not these go on to sell out and be winners, at least LCR is not expecting a home run out of the box.
Anyone like you who wants one because they love it and want it for their collection should absolutely grab one on Thursday, rather than waiting around to see what happens. But anyone throwing $3700 on a credit card on spec, hoping to score $300-500 before it arrives, and returning it otherwise, is likely wasting their time and a trip to the post office. JMHO.
FWIW, PFS is already offering $50 commission for the FHG, albeit for a limited quantity. They tend to offer the least, so I think we could certainly see +$200 from other buyers on Friday. Their offer will also drive interest from people who just want credit card spend, increasing the likelihood of a sell out on Friday (if not day 1).
They are unique. As were the tree and horse. Both of which ended up doing very well in the secondary market.
What all the gold coins have in common, though, is that they are very expensive. None more so than this one.
Highest dollar premium. Ever. Highest spot price of gold. Ever. Higher mintage than the other two gold coins. By almost 50%.
The Mint is betting that the market will accept that. You agree. I'm less sure.
Not saying it can't happen. I am saying that, even if it does, it will cap everyone's upside.
As evidenced by LCR offering FDOI 70s at only a 30% premium to issue price before we even know what is going to happen with a sell out. Clearly not a slam dunk obvious home run to them.
They are trying to cash out while they can. I'm not sure when they threw them up on their website, but 5 different flavors from 3 different TPGs, plus one Advance Release at a higher premium, are all available for sale from them as I write this on Sunday morning, 4 days before release. Not a single version has yet sold out at $5,385.10, $5,581.10 with a signature label, and $6,169.10 for Advance Release.
If they all sell out before noon on Thursday, you might be on to something. Otherwise, it will tell me they are fully priced, if not over priced, at whatever the Mint will be charging. And that 17,500 will likely not sell out immediately after the HHL is lifted, if at all.
After that, I really don't have an opinion. Yes, it's not a tree or a horse, but there will be 5,000 more of them floating around.
The trees and horses have done well, so these can too. But they will have to overcome another 5,000 in the market in order to do so. At a far higher original issue price. That might be too much to expect.
Flippers who get 2% cashback will earn $75 in cc $ with their purchase also. We know a lot of buyers are flippers driving sales.
True. But it's a lot of money to tie up on spec to maybe make 10%.
The 2% doesn't exist if the coin is returned, so it's not a consideration. It's just a bonus if the coin turns out to be a winner.
If it turns out too many people are buying to flip, there won't be anyone to flip to. As we saw with the silver medals, the ABPP and initial HHL of 1 actually work to ensure anyone who wants one has 24 hours to easily obtain one from the Mint at original issue price.
That kills the flip unless there is not sufficient quantity available to satisfy actual collector demand. It's still unclear to me whether the silver medal flip is due to 50K or 75K being insufficient to satisfy demand, or whether the market is just being propped up by people holding them off the market, speculating that 25K will never be made and that will support higher future prices.
In any event, LCR's offering tells me that they might think there won't be a flip for us with these, at this mintage, this premium, and this price. Because the premium they are asking for what they are offering seems very reasonable if these are going to be worth more than $4K raw sometime Friday afternoon. TBD.
Good points all. We'll see. My guess is the hype from the silver medal will carry over and the little dip in the gold prices won't hurt. 😀 This release is more comparable to the 2009 UHR with a mintage of 114,000+. I recall paying a 40% premium to melt on it, cost me $1,250!
Cracked my medal out of the original plastic …. Where it stands on edge in the window ledge. It is posed to hide the flaws from being in my pocket. A not so “true view.”
Go for the gold !
Just my luck, I will order the gold and end up with one missing the edge lettering.
So you're very very very lucky????
I guess I am. Considering since the inception of the Innovation Dollar series, there has only been (to my knowledge) one found ….and graded at PCGS with Missing Edge Lettering. And it was a collector who cherry-picked me. But he was gracious enough to sell it back to me. That’s for another thread. Wouldn’t it be something, though ?
A whopping $50 on a $3,700 outlay, with a limit? Where do I sign up? 🤣🤣🤣
That offer is absolute garbage, and isn't going to drive anything. Is it even serious? And don't they have a history of backing out and sticking people?
If it would actually increase the likelihood of a Friday sell out, it will also increase the likelihood of lots of returns to the Mint a week later, when they get slammed with returns after a secondary market for raw coins fails to develop at $4K+ and PFS closes the window on its generous offer. And as dealers who can buy at a discount directly from the Mint have no interest at all in buying from the public at even original issue price, let alone a premium to it.
PFS is a scam. They have no idea what they are doing, and are just guessing because they don't understand the difference between this and the silver medal with the privy kicker.
They will figure it out and pull their commission offer. People thinking they will be selling to them at a premium will find themselves stuck, and will end up returning what they buy to the Mint. Anyone paying a premium to the issue price based on something like this is almost certain to get hurt.
Where was PFS last month, when anyone could have bought one in the first 24 hours, and they actually had a valuable lottery ticket? Nowhere, because they don't understand our market, and just chase whatever they think is hot.
Based on that, they think this is Round 2, and they are dipping their toe in the water. But they are wrong.
This time, they are 35x more expensive, there is no lottery ticket, and preliminary dealer pricing indicates they will not be in the secondary market looking to buy from the likes of PFS. They seemingly have what they need, and are sellers, not buyers. Once PFS figures that out, their offer is going to evaporate.
People buying for a flip might distort the initial market if PFS is not alone in promoting this. But it will straighten out quickly, given that the Mint is apparently ready to ship.
So there will not be a multi-week period for people to mess around, testing the market with pre-sales to see whether there is demand. And that's assuming you are right about buying club offers driving an early sell out.
People will only have a week to return. The market will be flooded with sellers, and they will have no choice but to return if they are not buying because they want them, but because, based on a lottery last month, they think these will have legs at $3700.
Edit -- I just Googled PFS and learned of their recent issues involving concert ticket resales. They are a totally unethical scam.
When things go well members' profits are capped, as agreed, PFS makes the lion's share of the profit, and everyone is happy. When things go south for PFS, members lose their deal, are lucky if they get their money back, and seemingly are sometimes expected to share losses with PFS.
Prototypical heads they win, tails you lose coin toss. As a result, I'd never look at any of their offers, or do anything based on them. YMMV. Good luck.
youre forgetting the first day purchase at Baltimore and getting a "show label" when submitted same day.
I've never sold anything to PFS and wouldn't recommend them to anyone. That said, they've been buying coins for at least 8 years. I'm not aware of them backing out of coin deals, but you rightly bring up the ticket debacle where they royally botched things and fried their credibility.
In any case, my point wasn't to recommend them, it was to say that their offer provides a backstop for flippers. You scoff at $50, but that's a signal to flippers to back up the truck. Had there been such a public offer for the silver flowing hair, or even an offer to pay cost, you would've seen the ~4,400 coins that were in stock when the HHL was lifted evaporate in under 15 seconds.
Yeah, you'd probably get one of the privy marked up ones that got mixed up in the regular batch...
Gold just dropped significantly so the price might not be as high as previously indicated this Thursday. You can buy a flowing hair gold for $3,640-$3,690 depending on the grid result and spend another $113 to get it graded at PCGS.
It is amazing that people are paying more than $5,400 for graded presales currently on eBay. Actual recently sold data.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set