@Goldminers said:
Gold just dropped significantly so the price might not be as high as previously indicated this Thursday. You can buy a flowing hair gold for $3,640-$3,690 depending on the grid result and spend another $113 to get it graded at PCGS.
It is amazing that people are paying more than $5,400 for graded presales currently on eBay. Actual recently sold data.
If you want a 70, it is often better to buy it already graded.
@Goldminers said:
Gold just dropped significantly so the price might not be as high as previously indicated this Thursday. You can buy a flowing hair gold for $3,640-$3,690 depending on the grid result and spend another $113 to get it graded at PCGS.
It is amazing that people are paying more than $5,400 for graded presales currently on eBay. Actual recently sold data.
If you want a 70, it is often better to buy it already graded.
True, and I do that quite often, but not when there are fairly high odds of getting one for $1,500 less.
A whopping $50 on a $3,700 outlay, with a limit? Where do I sign up? 🤣🤣🤣
That offer is absolute garbage, and isn't going to drive anything. Is it even serious? And don't they have a history of backing out and sticking people?
I've never sold anything to PFS and wouldn't recommend them to anyone. That said, they've been buying coins for at least 8 years. I'm not aware of them backing out of coin deals, but you rightly bring up the ticket debacle where they royally botched things and fried their credibility.
In any case, my point wasn't to recommend them, it was to say that their offer provides a backstop for flippers. You scoff at $50, but that's a signal to flippers to back up the truck. Had there been such a public offer for the silver flowing hair, or even an offer to pay cost, you would've seen the ~4,400 coins that were in stock when the HHL was lifted evaporate in under 15 seconds.
Right. And I'm saying, with their credibility shot, their offer means nothing, and is a signal of nothing.
Their concert ticket offers were also signals to back up the truck. People did, and they got burned, because those guys don't have money to back up their offers. They are contingent on there being a profitably secondary market, which they can speculate on, as we all can, but which they do not control, just like we don't.
I was unfamiliar with them, but the Google search revealed they actually play a foolish game with foolish people chasing credit card points. Those people seem oblivious to the fact that they are being played, because they are solely focused on earning points on manufactured spend on their credit cards.
As a result, they happily flip Taylor Swift tickets for tiny profits, leaving the big money to PFS, and get burned when a lucrative secondary market fails to develop for Travis Scott. So what's the play here, other than heads they win, tails you lose?
The market develops, and you make $50 on a $3700 investment, plus the points you get on your credit card. Or, the market doesn't develop, they back out, you make nothing, and have a return to the Mint against your lifetime return limit, whatever that is, before the Mint stops taking returns from you.
As I said, sounds great, sign me up. If I want the coin, I'm buying it anyway. If I think it might be a flip, I'm buying it anyway. Not to give to those jokers for $50. Because if I'm going to lose if the coin comes up tails, I might as well be the winner if it comes up heads, rather than PFS.
By the way, the silver medals DID disappear as soon as the Mint could process orders as soon as the HHL was lifted, in spite of the fact PFS was clued into it. Because of the lottery.
PFS doesn't set a market. Or signal anything. They just tag along, exploiting people who don't know any better chasing credit card points. The fact that PFS missed the medals, which we all knew about, and is not all over this, in spite of obvious concerns regarding pricing and mintage, is a signal not to back up the truck, because they are clueless. And poorly capitalized.
A better leading indicator is LCR offering FDOI 70s in all the popular labels for less that $5400, and selling out nothing over the weekend, with now 3 days to launch. As clear a sign as any that dealers can get what they want without going through the PFSes of the world.
The secondary market PFS thinks is going to develop for raw coins is unlikely to manifest. Their offer means nothing if they don't stand behind it, and anyone thinking it is a signal that other, better offers will follow is likely to be disappointed.
The fact that LCR's pricing is so reasonable, and that nothing sold out at those prices, is a signal to leave the truck on the driveway, and to only buy what you want to keep, because there is very little room to flip at a $1,000 premium to spot. And, seemingly, plenty of coins to go around with a mintage of 17,500. The profit on this one is going to primarily be going to the Mint. Not vest pocket flippers or PFS.
@Goldminers said:
Gold just dropped significantly so the price might not be as high as previously indicated this Thursday. You can buy a flowing hair gold for $3,640-$3,690 depending on the grid result and spend another $113 to get it graded at PCGS.
It is amazing that people are paying more than $5,400 for graded presales currently on eBay. Actual recently sold data.
Yeah. It's better than nothing, but hard to get excited about a $50-100 price drop when they created a whole new category of premium just for these -- $100 more than Buffaloes, $140 more than proof AGEs, and $170 more than burnished AGEs.
The price drop is small relief. Better than nothing, but still small. To me, the sudden violent move down in the price of gold just highlights the risk of chasing these at these prices.
If anyone thinks it's a temporary dip, great. It's a one-time $50 or $100 off coupon. Otherwise, it's a red flag about chasing anything at or near its all-time high, with an all-time high premium to boot, and without an accompanying all-time low mintage.
The coins are absolutely BEAUTIFUL, and would have been absolute slam dunk home runs if they chose to make 5K fewer, or left something on the table for us with respect to the premium.
By choosing the course they chose, however, the Mint clearly wants to gobble up most of the value for itself. Making these an expensive indulgence for most collectors, with a LOT more downside than upside in terms of ultimate value.
Also, $5400 for FDOI 70s isn't crazy if you think these are winners. That represents a modest percentage premium to raw. With a label unavailable to retail, and with a guarantee of a 70, if you care about such things. The fact that dealers are selling at that price, and that they are not selling out, tells me that the coins are not going to be an instant sell out at $3700.
Update -- it seems those coins are Advance Release, not even FDOI. Those cost the dealers more to obtain from the Mint, and to get graded. People generally pay significant premiums for them, for no reason other than they are a predefined, Mint attributed, subset of the general population.
The fact that they are selling on eBay for less than $5500 explains why LCR cannot get $5400, cash or wire, for FDOIs. It is also a very powerful signal that these are not going to be the winners lots of folks want them to be.
Dealers seemingly have more than enough, and are not getting the premiums one would expect if demand was outstripping supply. They are not going to sell out, because there is not going to be a flipping market for them, and because they are too expensive for 17,500 retail collectors to want for their collections.
A whopping $50 on a $3,700 outlay, with a limit? Where do I sign up? 🤣🤣🤣
That offer is absolute garbage, and isn't going to drive anything. Is it even serious? And don't they have a history of backing out and sticking people?
I've never sold anything to PFS and wouldn't recommend them to anyone. That said, they've been buying coins for at least 8 years. I'm not aware of them backing out of coin deals, but you rightly bring up the ticket debacle where they royally botched things and fried their credibility.
In any case, my point wasn't to recommend them, it was to say that their offer provides a backstop for flippers. You scoff at $50, but that's a signal to flippers to back up the truck. Had there been such a public offer for the silver flowing hair, or even an offer to pay cost, you would've seen the ~4,400 coins that were in stock when the HHL was lifted evaporate in under 15 seconds.
Right. And I'm saying, with their credibility shot, their offer means nothing, and is a signal of nothing.
Nothing draws a crowd like a crowd. I already saw another high-volume private buyer say this morning he would be making an offer for the gold coins. Don't get hung up on PFS. "If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences."
The sellout of the silver medals on 10/16 was glacial at around 2 minutes.
@Goldminers said:
Gold just dropped significantly so the price might not be as high as previously indicated this Thursday. You can buy a flowing hair gold for $3,640-$3,690 depending on the grid result and spend another $113 to get it graded at PCGS.
It is amazing that people are paying more than $5,400 for graded presales currently on eBay. Actual recently sold data.
There are some sales near $6k for a 70. Markets are not rational, never were.
@Goldminers said:
Gold just dropped significantly so the price might not be as high as previously indicated this Thursday. You can buy a flowing hair gold for $3,640-$3,690 depending on the grid result and spend another $113 to get it graded at PCGS.
It is amazing that people are paying more than $5,400 for graded presales currently on eBay. Actual recently sold data.
There are some sales near $6k for a 70. Markets are not rational, never were.
Correct. Markets are not always rational. Or perfect. But they are pretty efficient.
The $6K sale I see was someone getting excited and jumping the gun 5 days ago, on a regular FDOI. One sold 2 days later for $5K, and yesterday for $5150. Two Advance Release sold yesterday, one for $5435 and the other for $5469.5
If $5K and $6K happened on the same day, it would be fair to say the market is all over the place. It is not. Someone bought into the hype last Wednesday, and got burned.
There are no recent sales near $6K, nor will there be, given how many are offered and where transaction prices are closing. If anything, dealers committed to them are going to get nervous, considering how much they have tied up in each coin, and will dump them to get their money out before they get stuck with them.
At the end of the day, regardless of how beautiful they are, they each contain around $2600 in gold at current prices, and dealers will have around $1,000 more than that tied up in each coin, less whatever discount they get from the Mint. Gold might end up $100 per ounce lower today by the time trading ends. That might make any retail buyer a little nervous, and is surely giving agita to dealers who in many cases will have hundreds of thousands or millions tied up in them.
It's clear the slabbed market is heading lower, and I'm in no position to predict where it's going to settle. It does, however, seem clear to me, based on the eBay action and what isn't happening on LCR's website, that there is not going to be an active flipping market for these. Which makes a sell out extremely unlikely.
@Goldminers said:
Gold just dropped significantly so the price might not be as high as previously indicated this Thursday. You can buy a flowing hair gold for $3,640-$3,690 depending on the grid result and spend another $113 to get it graded at PCGS.
It is amazing that people are paying more than $5,400 for graded presales currently on eBay. Actual recently sold data.
If you want a 70, it is often better to buy it already graded.
True, and I do that quite often, but not when there are fairly high odds of getting one for $1,500 less.
Except if you must have a 70, you have a 30% chance of having to buy a second coin.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
A whopping $50 on a $3,700 outlay, with a limit? Where do I sign up? 🤣🤣🤣
That offer is absolute garbage, and isn't going to drive anything. Is it even serious? And don't they have a history of backing out and sticking people?
I've never sold anything to PFS and wouldn't recommend them to anyone. That said, they've been buying coins for at least 8 years. I'm not aware of them backing out of coin deals, but you rightly bring up the ticket debacle where they royally botched things and fried their credibility.
In any case, my point wasn't to recommend them, it was to say that their offer provides a backstop for flippers. You scoff at $50, but that's a signal to flippers to back up the truck. Had there been such a public offer for the silver flowing hair, or even an offer to pay cost, you would've seen the ~4,400 coins that were in stock when the HHL was lifted evaporate in under 15 seconds.
Right. And I'm saying, with their credibility shot, their offer means nothing, and is a signal of nothing.
Nothing draws a crowd like a crowd. I already saw another high-volume private buyer say this morning he would be making an offer for the gold coins. Don't get hung up on PFS. "If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences."
The sellout of the silver medals on 10/16 was glacial at around 2 minutes.
"Would be making an offer" is not making an offer. They are not going to sell out, no offers will be made, and any offers that are made are not going to be honored.
Just take a look at eBay. Tons of graded coins offered, at very reasonable prices. Very few completed sales, at far more reasonable prices.
There is going to be no one for any "high-volume private buyer" to flip to, because dealers clearly have what they need, and are not getting huge premiums for what they have already placed on the market. No flip = no sell out. Not at 30 seconds. Not at 2 minutes. Not at 2 days.
Maybe eventually they sell out, if, in fact, there is retail demand for 17,500 of them. But it's not going to be instantaneous, via the masses buying on behalf of so-called high-volume private buyers who vanish with the wind when the anticipated flip fails to materialize.
@NJCoin said:
"Would be making an offer" is not making an offer. They are not going to sell out, no offers will be made, and any offers that are made are not going to be honored.
I admire your conviction. At least there's no confusion about where you stand.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP that can be placed prior to the HHL being lifted. Haven't we already been through this?
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off. FACTS matter. You can make any random prediction you want. But when you are making allegations of fact that are violations of Mint policy, it borders on actionable.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done. Because nothing would stop ABPP buyers from buying on behalf of non-ABPP bulk buyers. After all, they are all part of the same fraternity.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory. At least not dealers who expect to remain in business.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% above cost is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Especially not after accounting for whatever does not grade 70. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s end up selling for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
It's not a big deal. It's not a crime. But it's pretty obvious, based on what is available on eBay. And on the web. So why do you have to argue against things that are obvious? It's how the Mint moves product, and how dealers secure inventory.
Because forcing everyone to slam the website on noon Thursday serves no one's interest. Not mine, if I want to get one without having to compete with an army employed by an army of dealers to secure inventory in case there is a sell out.
Not the Mint's, who has to contend with a bunch of pissed off customers who can't buy a single coin as their website can't handle being slammed. And not the dealers', who after all, ARE the Mint's retail marketing partners here.
It's all good. But denying it, because, NBBP terms, denies the obvious. Just like with 70 minimum grades. Just a big coincidence that most of the early grades are 70s, and very few of the later ones are, after retail submissions flood into the TPGs.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies or fiction.
THERE are at least two bulk buyers on this forum. They can NOT place orders until Friday. Ask them.
I'm done. I'm going fishing with @WQuarterFreddie . But please stop making crap up.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
FDOI and and Show Labels will be available to those standing inline at the show, then walk the coin over and submit at the TPG table. Generally, show labels require you to show mint receipt from that day if they offer"First Day" "Baltimore Show" labels
@coiner said:
FDOI and and Show Labels will be available to those standing inline at the show, then walk the coin over and submit at the TPG table. Generally, show labels require you to show mint receipt from that day if they offer"First Day" "Baltimore Show" labels
There are pics of PCGS FH gold labels floating around. Not on PCGS site. Do you know if this will officially be offered?
@coiner said:
FDOI and and Show Labels will be available to those standing inline at the show, then walk the coin over and submit at the TPG table. Generally, show labels require you to show mint receipt from that day if they offer"First Day" "Baltimore Show" labels
There are pics of PCGS FH gold labels floating around. Not on PCGS site. Do you know if this will officially be offered?
If people are offering them for sale, they "officially" are going to have them. Doesn't mean you are going to be able to get one if they are not offered to retail submitters, but it would be false advertising to offer something you aren't going to have.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies or fiction.
THERE are at least two bulk buyers on this forum. They can NOT place orders until Friday. Ask them.
I'm done. I'm going fishing with @WQuarterFreddie . But please stop making crap up.
I don't have to ask anyone anything. You can ask everyone on eBay, as well as LCR, how they know they are going to be able to fill their orders for FDOI slabs, when FDOI coins have to be delivered to the TPGs by Friday, and they won't know whether or not they will even be able to place an order until then, with no way to actually get the coins from Point A to Point B the same day.
Since the First Day of Issue is Thursday, and they can't place an order until Friday, it sounds like their coins won't actually be FDOI, huh? How is that going to work? How does any bulk submitter get a coin to a TPG in 24 hours if they can't place orders for the first 24 hours?
What you are saying makes absolutely no sense, unless everything goes to the Advance Purchasers, and nothing goes to anyone else, including the bulk purchasers here on this forum. Other than maybe unwanted leftovers ineligible for any attribution the bulk purchasers so eagerly seek.
And, even if so, so what? So the "regular" bulk buyers here can't buy in advance, but others can? Above and beyond designated Advance Release coins?
Clearly, whatever is being offered now, Advance Purchase, FDOI, First Strike, whatever, has been secured. Otherwise, dealers are needlessly gambling. A lot of them. With little upsaide compared to the reputational risk and monetary downside associated with being unable to fill pre-sale orders.
Not lies and not fiction. No fear of a libel lawsuit, because I have no monetary damages, but you publicly accusing me of lying when I am not is libelous.
@NJCoin said:
"Would be making an offer" is not making an offer. They are not going to sell out, no offers will be made, and any offers that are made are not going to be honored.
I admire your conviction. At least there's no confusion about where you stand.
That guy is notoriously wrong and feels compelled to respond to everything. It is almost as if he tries to be wrong.
Maybe loneliness, maybe just seeking attention. All he wants from this board is some human interaction. Regardless his opinion is a time suck. His situation would make for a good psychology case study.
@NJCoin said:
"Would be making an offer" is not making an offer. They are not going to sell out, no offers will be made, and any offers that are made are not going to be honored.
I admire your conviction. At least there's no confusion about where you stand.
That guy is notoriously wrong and feels compelled to respond to everything. It is almost as if he tries to be wrong.
Maybe loneliness, maybe just seeking attention. All he wants from this board is some human interaction. Regardless his opinion is a time suck. His situation would make for a good psychology case study.
Yes. Notoriously. What am I wrong about now? These not selling out by the end of the week, even though they are currently being offered all over the internet at a modest premium to original issue price?
About people offering FDOI slabs all over the internet having already secured their supply, and not needing to buy them from PFS at a premium Friday afternoon? What? We'll see.
I dont see show specific labels being offered by NGC or PCGS. I will make some phone calls tomorrow.
They generally offer show labels only to coins bought at the show on the first day of the show. These lables generally carry a premium
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
You are making it up. They don't sell bulk in advance on limited mintages to anyone but ABPP. And you keep saying they do... for no reason except you can't figure out how people could do pre-sales in advance. Stop making crap up. You will convince people that your fiction is a fact.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
You are making it up. They don't sell bulk in advance on limited mintages to anyone but ABPP. And you keep saying they do... for no reason except you can't figure out how people could do pre-sales in advance. Stop making crap up. You will convince people that your fiction is a fact.
Again, it's clear they sell in advance, beyond the coins designated as Advance Release, because they are all over the internet. What's the difference just who they are selling to? I have absolutely figured out how the sellers can sell in advance. They have secured inventory from the US Mint. That's how.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
You are making it up. They don't sell bulk in advance on limited mintages to anyone but ABPP. And you keep saying they do... for no reason except you can't figure out how people could do pre-sales in advance. Stop making crap up. You will convince people that your fiction is a fact.
Again, it's clear they sell in advance, beyond the coins designated as Advance Release, because they are all over the internet. What's the difference just who they are selling to? I have absolutely figured out how the sellers can sell in advance. They have secured inventory from the US Mint. That's how.
That is not how the Mint operates. You didn't figure it out. You made it up. I've sold to bulk buyers in Anand because that's the only way they can get them. That's why they post bid in advance of sale.
Please label your posts as fiction so no one is misled.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
You are making it up. They don't sell bulk in advance on limited mintages to anyone but ABPP. And you keep saying they do... for no reason except you can't figure out how people could do pre-sales in advance. Stop making crap up. You will convince people that your fiction is a fact.
Again, it's clear they sell in advance, beyond the coins designated as Advance Release, because they are all over the internet. What's the difference just who they are selling to? I have absolutely figured out how the sellers can sell in advance. They have secured inventory from the US Mint. That's how.
That is not how the Mint operates. You didn't figure it out. You made it up. I've sold to bulk buyers in Anand because that's the only way they can get them. That's why they post bid in advance of sale.
Please label your posts as fiction so no one is misled.
I'm not labeling anything as fiction. I personally saw a lot of boxes being moved by Treasury security to TPG booths at multiple shows while HHLs were in effect. They were clearly not Advance Release material.
I see a lot of FDOI slabs all over the internet. TODAY, 3 days before the on sale date.
No way all those sellers are speculating on obtaining inventory at the same time @treybenedict is aggressively posting bids in anticipation of a fast sell out. I stand by what I believe.
I don't know whether only certain folks are allowed to buy in advance, beyond the 10% allocated to Advance Release, or whether any bulk buyer can. Doesn't matter who's buying.
Only matters that inventory is available to dealers, in advance, beyond Advance Release examples. Which is why I think @treybenedict is going to get hurt making commitments to buy at above Mint retail before seeing whether or not there is a sell out.
Because I don't think he is going to have dealers, or anyone else, to sell to at a profit if there is not a sell out on Thursday or Friday. And my Ouija board tells me there won't be one.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
You are making it up. They don't sell bulk in advance on limited mintages to anyone but ABPP. And you keep saying they do... for no reason except you can't figure out how people could do pre-sales in advance. Stop making crap up. You will convince people that your fiction is a fact.
Relax..... pretty sure many of us stopped reading both of your posts days ago.🙄
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
You are making it up. They don't sell bulk in advance on limited mintages to anyone but ABPP. And you keep saying they do... for no reason except you can't figure out how people could do pre-sales in advance. Stop making crap up. You will convince people that your fiction is a fact.
Again, it's clear they sell in advance, beyond the coins designated as Advance Release, because they are all over the internet. What's the difference just who they are selling to? I have absolutely figured out how the sellers can sell in advance. They have secured inventory from the US Mint. That's how.
That is not how the Mint operates. You didn't figure it out. You made it up. I've sold to bulk buyers in Anand because that's the only way they can get them. That's why they post bid in advance of sale.
Please label your posts as fiction so no one is misled.
I'm not labeling anything as fiction. I personally saw a lot of boxes being moved by Treasury security to TPG booths at multiple shows while HHLs were in effect. They were clearly not Advance Release material.
I see a lot of FDOI slabs all over the internet. TODAY, 3 days before the on sale date.
No way all those sellers are speculating on obtaining inventory at the same time @treybenedict is aggressively posting bids in anticipation of a fast sell out. I stand by what I believe.
I don't know whether only certain folks are allowed to buy in advance, beyond the 10% allocated to Advance Release, or whether any bulk buyer can. Doesn't matter who's buying.
Only matters that inventory is available to dealers, in advance, beyond Advance Release examples. Which is why I think @treybenedict is going to get hurt making commitments to buy at above Mint retail before seeing whether or not there is a sell out.
Because I don't think he is going to have dealers, or anyone else, to sell to at a profit if there is not a sell out on Thursday or Friday. And my Ouija board tells me there won't be one.
Clueless and confused…. Ouija boards are not for foreseeing the future.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
You are making it up. They don't sell bulk in advance on limited mintages to anyone but ABPP. And you keep saying they do... for no reason except you can't figure out how people could do pre-sales in advance. Stop making crap up. You will convince people that your fiction is a fact.
Again, it's clear they sell in advance, beyond the coins designated as Advance Release, because they are all over the internet. What's the difference just who they are selling to? I have absolutely figured out how the sellers can sell in advance. They have secured inventory from the US Mint. That's how.
That is not how the Mint operates. You didn't figure it out. You made it up. I've sold to bulk buyers in Anand because that's the only way they can get them. That's why they post bid in advance of sale.
Please label your posts as fiction so no one is misled.
I'm not labeling anything as fiction. I personally saw a lot of boxes being moved by Treasury security to TPG booths at multiple shows while HHLs were in effect. They were clearly not Advance Release material.
I see a lot of FDOI slabs all over the internet. TODAY, 3 days before the on sale date.
No way all those sellers are speculating on obtaining inventory at the same time @treybenedict is aggressively posting bids in anticipation of a fast sell out. I stand by what I believe.
I don't know whether only certain folks are allowed to buy in advance, beyond the 10% allocated to Advance Release, or whether any bulk buyer can. Doesn't matter who's buying.
Only matters that inventory is available to dealers, in advance, beyond Advance Release examples. Which is why I think @treybenedict is going to get hurt making commitments to buy at above Mint retail before seeing whether or not there is a sell out.
Because I don't think he is going to have dealers, or anyone else, to sell to at a profit if there is not a sell out on Thursday or Friday. And my Ouija board tells me there won't be one.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
You are making it up. They don't sell bulk in advance on limited mintages to anyone but ABPP. And you keep saying they do... for no reason except you can't figure out how people could do pre-sales in advance. Stop making crap up. You will convince people that your fiction is a fact.
Relax..... pretty sure many of us stopped reading both of your posts days ago.🙄
Great. If you stopped reading posts, why are you compelled to respond to them? Feeling left out? 🤣
It's fine -- your participation is ALWAYS welcome. 😀
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
You are making it up. They don't sell bulk in advance on limited mintages to anyone but ABPP. And you keep saying they do... for no reason except you can't figure out how people could do pre-sales in advance. Stop making crap up. You will convince people that your fiction is a fact.
Again, it's clear they sell in advance, beyond the coins designated as Advance Release, because they are all over the internet. What's the difference just who they are selling to? I have absolutely figured out how the sellers can sell in advance. They have secured inventory from the US Mint. That's how.
That is not how the Mint operates. You didn't figure it out. You made it up. I've sold to bulk buyers in Anand because that's the only way they can get them. That's why they post bid in advance of sale.
Please label your posts as fiction so no one is misled.
I'm not labeling anything as fiction. I personally saw a lot of boxes being moved by Treasury security to TPG booths at multiple shows while HHLs were in effect. They were clearly not Advance Release material.
I see a lot of FDOI slabs all over the internet. TODAY, 3 days before the on sale date.
No way all those sellers are speculating on obtaining inventory at the same time @treybenedict is aggressively posting bids in anticipation of a fast sell out. I stand by what I believe.
I don't know whether only certain folks are allowed to buy in advance, beyond the 10% allocated to Advance Release, or whether any bulk buyer can. Doesn't matter who's buying.
Only matters that inventory is available to dealers, in advance, beyond Advance Release examples. Which is why I think @treybenedict is going to get hurt making commitments to buy at above Mint retail before seeing whether or not there is a sell out.
Because I don't think he is going to have dealers, or anyone else, to sell to at a profit if there is not a sell out on Thursday or Friday. And my Ouija board tells me there won't be one.
Clueless and confused…. Ouija boards are not for foreseeing the future.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
You are making it up. They don't sell bulk in advance on limited mintages to anyone but ABPP. And you keep saying they do... for no reason except you can't figure out how people could do pre-sales in advance. Stop making crap up. You will convince people that your fiction is a fact.
Again, it's clear they sell in advance, beyond the coins designated as Advance Release, because they are all over the internet. What's the difference just who they are selling to? I have absolutely figured out how the sellers can sell in advance. They have secured inventory from the US Mint. That's how.
That is not how the Mint operates. You didn't figure it out. You made it up. I've sold to bulk buyers in Anand because that's the only way they can get them. That's why they post bid in advance of sale.
Please label your posts as fiction so no one is misled.
I'm not labeling anything as fiction. I personally saw a lot of boxes being moved by Treasury security to TPG booths at multiple shows while HHLs were in effect. They were clearly not Advance Release material.
I see a lot of FDOI slabs all over the internet. TODAY, 3 days before the on sale date.
No way all those sellers are speculating on obtaining inventory at the same time @treybenedict is aggressively posting bids in anticipation of a fast sell out. I stand by what I believe.
I don't know whether only certain folks are allowed to buy in advance, beyond the 10% allocated to Advance Release, or whether any bulk buyer can. Doesn't matter who's buying.
Only matters that inventory is available to dealers, in advance, beyond Advance Release examples. Which is why I think @treybenedict is going to get hurt making commitments to buy at above Mint retail before seeing whether or not there is a sell out.
Because I don't think he is going to have dealers, or anyone else, to sell to at a profit if there is not a sell out on Thursday or Friday. And my Ouija board tells me there won't be one.
Please read the link I sent above?
So you're not a principal on your transactions? Okay, if so, I guess that explains why you won't get hurt.
OTOH, it REALLY doesn't explain why anyone would be willing to pay even more than your posted bid to buy something that has not yet sold out from the source, and very well might not.
In any event, good luck. It seems as though you know what you are doing, and have no downside as long as you have properly vetted your buyers in order to ensure that your sellers get paid regardless of what happens to the market.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
You are making it up. They don't sell bulk in advance on limited mintages to anyone but ABPP. And you keep saying they do... for no reason except you can't figure out how people could do pre-sales in advance. Stop making crap up. You will convince people that your fiction is a fact.
Again, it's clear they sell in advance, beyond the coins designated as Advance Release, because they are all over the internet. What's the difference just who they are selling to? I have absolutely figured out how the sellers can sell in advance. They have secured inventory from the US Mint. That's how.
That is not how the Mint operates. You didn't figure it out. You made it up. I've sold to bulk buyers in Anand because that's the only way they can get them. That's why they post bid in advance of sale.
Please label your posts as fiction so no one is misled.
I'm not labeling anything as fiction. I personally saw a lot of boxes being moved by Treasury security to TPG booths at multiple shows while HHLs were in effect. They were clearly not Advance Release material.
I see a lot of FDOI slabs all over the internet. TODAY, 3 days before the on sale date.
No way all those sellers are speculating on obtaining inventory at the same time @treybenedict is aggressively posting bids in anticipation of a fast sell out. I stand by what I believe.
I don't know whether only certain folks are allowed to buy in advance, beyond the 10% allocated to Advance Release, or whether any bulk buyer can. Doesn't matter who's buying.
Only matters that inventory is available to dealers, in advance, beyond Advance Release examples. Which is why I think @treybenedict is going to get hurt making commitments to buy at above Mint retail before seeing whether or not there is a sell out.
Because I don't think he is going to have dealers, or anyone else, to sell to at a profit if there is not a sell out on Thursday or Friday. And my Ouija board tells me there won't be one.
Please read the link I sent above?
So you're not a principal on your transactions? Okay, if so, I guess that explains why you won't get hurt.
OTOH, it REALLY doesn't explain why anyone would be willing to pay even more than your posted bid to buy something that has not yet sold out from the source, and very well might not.
In any event, good luck. It seems as though you know what you are doing, and have no downside as long as you have properly vetted your buyers in order to ensure that your sellers get paid regardless of what happens to the market.
The answer is because the people who are pre-selling slabs are sourcing from people like Trey. That's what I can't seem to get through to you. There is a pre-sale wholesale market not a back door to the Mint.
I just don’t know why anyone would take anything NJ says as truth at this point. When you are so wrong so many times and unwilling to admit it. The boy who cried wolf comes to mind at this point.
@VanHalen said:
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s sell for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
Lies
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
You are making it up. They don't sell bulk in advance on limited mintages to anyone but ABPP. And you keep saying they do... for no reason except you can't figure out how people could do pre-sales in advance. Stop making crap up. You will convince people that your fiction is a fact.
Again, it's clear they sell in advance, beyond the coins designated as Advance Release, because they are all over the internet. What's the difference just who they are selling to? I have absolutely figured out how the sellers can sell in advance. They have secured inventory from the US Mint. That's how.
That is not how the Mint operates. You didn't figure it out. You made it up. I've sold to bulk buyers in Anand because that's the only way they can get them. That's why they post bid in advance of sale.
Please label your posts as fiction so no one is misled.
I'm not labeling anything as fiction. I personally saw a lot of boxes being moved by Treasury security to TPG booths at multiple shows while HHLs were in effect. They were clearly not Advance Release material.
I see a lot of FDOI slabs all over the internet. TODAY, 3 days before the on sale date.
No way all those sellers are speculating on obtaining inventory at the same time @treybenedict is aggressively posting bids in anticipation of a fast sell out. I stand by what I believe.
I don't know whether only certain folks are allowed to buy in advance, beyond the 10% allocated to Advance Release, or whether any bulk buyer can. Doesn't matter who's buying.
Only matters that inventory is available to dealers, in advance, beyond Advance Release examples. Which is why I think @treybenedict is going to get hurt making commitments to buy at above Mint retail before seeing whether or not there is a sell out.
Because I don't think he is going to have dealers, or anyone else, to sell to at a profit if there is not a sell out on Thursday or Friday. And my Ouija board tells me there won't be one.
Please read the link I sent above?
So you're not a principal on your transactions? Okay, if so, I guess that explains why you won't get hurt.
OTOH, it REALLY doesn't explain why anyone would be willing to pay even more than your posted bid to buy something that has not yet sold out from the source, and very well might not.
In any event, good luck. It seems as though you know what you are doing, and have no downside as long as you have properly vetted your buyers in order to ensure that your sellers get paid regardless of what happens to the market.
The answer is because the people who are pre-selling slabs are sourcing from people like Trey. That's what I can't seem to get through to you. There is a pre-sale wholesale market not a back door to the Mint.
Are they, though? Because Trey seems to be sourcing from the public. Which means he is never going to have FDOI slabs to wholesale to anyone.
The pre-sale wholesale market you refer to is ultimately being sourced by the Mint. Doesn't matter who they are selling to early. Only matters that they are.
And THAT means those retailers won't be looking to the flipping market to secure inventory. How can can you argue that when you see what is being offered for sale, at the prices being offered?
@jwitten said:
I just don’t know why anyone would take anything NJ says as truth at this point. When you are so wrong so many times and unwilling to admit it. The boy who cried wolf comes to mind at this point.
Yes. So wrong. So many times. And, never admit when I miss something. 🤣
We'll see. This is pretty black and white, and it's only 3 days away. And, if it sells out in 3 weeks, with no flip, you will get to say that you were right and I was wrong, because I always am.
Just like if the 25K missing silver medals show up and prices collapse for the raws, because they were propped up for a few weeks by a bad sales report I couldn't foresee. Or, if they never go down because the Mint, for the first time in recent memory, did not produce a product in high demand up to its maximum mintage, even with a lottery kicker. "Wolf."
Right or wrong, some folks listen to me because there is a logic behind what I think. You, on the other hand, just get to Monday Morning Quarterback, so you are never wrong. Congratulations, but it really doesn't take as much talent as you seem to think it does to know the score after the game is over!!!
I will be so glad, probably sometime next year, when this flowing hair speculation, flipping, waste of time cat fight is over. The moderator probably quit reading this thread as well in frustration.
I'm wondering if the Gold FH might do better than expected. Everyone seems to be assuming that they're going to produce the maximum 17500. How does the narrative change if they only make 10k? That's still a lot, but I think these are going to be popular.
@ProofCollection said:
I'm wondering if the Gold FH might do better than expected. Everyone seems to be assuming that they're going to produce the maximum 17500. How does the narrative change if they only make 10k? That's still a lot, but I think these are going to be popular.
Comments
If you want a 70, it is often better to buy it already graded.
True, and I do that quite often, but not when there are fairly high odds of getting one for $1,500 less.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Right. And I'm saying, with their credibility shot, their offer means nothing, and is a signal of nothing.
Their concert ticket offers were also signals to back up the truck. People did, and they got burned, because those guys don't have money to back up their offers. They are contingent on there being a profitably secondary market, which they can speculate on, as we all can, but which they do not control, just like we don't.
I was unfamiliar with them, but the Google search revealed they actually play a foolish game with foolish people chasing credit card points. Those people seem oblivious to the fact that they are being played, because they are solely focused on earning points on manufactured spend on their credit cards.
As a result, they happily flip Taylor Swift tickets for tiny profits, leaving the big money to PFS, and get burned when a lucrative secondary market fails to develop for Travis Scott. So what's the play here, other than heads they win, tails you lose?
The market develops, and you make $50 on a $3700 investment, plus the points you get on your credit card. Or, the market doesn't develop, they back out, you make nothing, and have a return to the Mint against your lifetime return limit, whatever that is, before the Mint stops taking returns from you.
As I said, sounds great, sign me up. If I want the coin, I'm buying it anyway. If I think it might be a flip, I'm buying it anyway. Not to give to those jokers for $50. Because if I'm going to lose if the coin comes up tails, I might as well be the winner if it comes up heads, rather than PFS.
By the way, the silver medals DID disappear as soon as the Mint could process orders as soon as the HHL was lifted, in spite of the fact PFS was clued into it. Because of the lottery.
PFS doesn't set a market. Or signal anything. They just tag along, exploiting people who don't know any better chasing credit card points. The fact that PFS missed the medals, which we all knew about, and is not all over this, in spite of obvious concerns regarding pricing and mintage, is a signal not to back up the truck, because they are clueless. And poorly capitalized.
A better leading indicator is LCR offering FDOI 70s in all the popular labels for less that $5400, and selling out nothing over the weekend, with now 3 days to launch. As clear a sign as any that dealers can get what they want without going through the PFSes of the world.
The secondary market PFS thinks is going to develop for raw coins is unlikely to manifest. Their offer means nothing if they don't stand behind it, and anyone thinking it is a signal that other, better offers will follow is likely to be disappointed.
The fact that LCR's pricing is so reasonable, and that nothing sold out at those prices, is a signal to leave the truck on the driveway, and to only buy what you want to keep, because there is very little room to flip at a $1,000 premium to spot. And, seemingly, plenty of coins to go around with a mintage of 17,500. The profit on this one is going to primarily be going to the Mint. Not vest pocket flippers or PFS.
Yeah. It's better than nothing, but hard to get excited about a $50-100 price drop when they created a whole new category of premium just for these -- $100 more than Buffaloes, $140 more than proof AGEs, and $170 more than burnished AGEs.
The price drop is small relief. Better than nothing, but still small. To me, the sudden violent move down in the price of gold just highlights the risk of chasing these at these prices.
If anyone thinks it's a temporary dip, great. It's a one-time $50 or $100 off coupon. Otherwise, it's a red flag about chasing anything at or near its all-time high, with an all-time high premium to boot, and without an accompanying all-time low mintage.
The coins are absolutely BEAUTIFUL, and would have been absolute slam dunk home runs if they chose to make 5K fewer, or left something on the table for us with respect to the premium.
By choosing the course they chose, however, the Mint clearly wants to gobble up most of the value for itself. Making these an expensive indulgence for most collectors, with a LOT more downside than upside in terms of ultimate value.
Also, $5400 for FDOI 70s isn't crazy if you think these are winners. That represents a modest percentage premium to raw. With a label unavailable to retail, and with a guarantee of a 70, if you care about such things. The fact that dealers are selling at that price, and that they are not selling out, tells me that the coins are not going to be an instant sell out at $3700.
Update -- it seems those coins are Advance Release, not even FDOI. Those cost the dealers more to obtain from the Mint, and to get graded. People generally pay significant premiums for them, for no reason other than they are a predefined, Mint attributed, subset of the general population.
The fact that they are selling on eBay for less than $5500 explains why LCR cannot get $5400, cash or wire, for FDOIs. It is also a very powerful signal that these are not going to be the winners lots of folks want them to be.
Dealers seemingly have more than enough, and are not getting the premiums one would expect if demand was outstripping supply. They are not going to sell out, because there is not going to be a flipping market for them, and because they are too expensive for 17,500 retail collectors to want for their collections.
Nothing draws a crowd like a crowd. I already saw another high-volume private buyer say this morning he would be making an offer for the gold coins. Don't get hung up on PFS. "If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences."
The sellout of the silver medals on 10/16 was glacial at around 2 minutes.
There are some sales near $6k for a 70. Markets are not rational, never were.
Correct. Markets are not always rational. Or perfect. But they are pretty efficient.
The $6K sale I see was someone getting excited and jumping the gun 5 days ago, on a regular FDOI. One sold 2 days later for $5K, and yesterday for $5150. Two Advance Release sold yesterday, one for $5435 and the other for $5469.5
If $5K and $6K happened on the same day, it would be fair to say the market is all over the place. It is not. Someone bought into the hype last Wednesday, and got burned.
There are no recent sales near $6K, nor will there be, given how many are offered and where transaction prices are closing. If anything, dealers committed to them are going to get nervous, considering how much they have tied up in each coin, and will dump them to get their money out before they get stuck with them.
At the end of the day, regardless of how beautiful they are, they each contain around $2600 in gold at current prices, and dealers will have around $1,000 more than that tied up in each coin, less whatever discount they get from the Mint. Gold might end up $100 per ounce lower today by the time trading ends. That might make any retail buyer a little nervous, and is surely giving agita to dealers who in many cases will have hundreds of thousands or millions tied up in them.
It's clear the slabbed market is heading lower, and I'm in no position to predict where it's going to settle. It does, however, seem clear to me, based on the eBay action and what isn't happening on LCR's website, that there is not going to be an active flipping market for these. Which makes a sell out extremely unlikely.
Except if you must have a 70, you have a 30% chance of having to buy a second coin.
If you decide to wait and pick one up next Monday they might be available. With no HHL.
They will absolutely be available with no limit. At 12:01 p.m. on Friday. But they will still be around $3700 a pop, and there will still be no guarantee of a 70.
I agree with both of you. $1,500 is a lot to guarantee a 70. But it's not high in relation to the value of the raw coin.
The fact that they are being offered at that premium, and less, before the on sale date, indicates dealers have a lot, and that they graded well. Again, all of this indicates there will be no active secondary market involving dealers for raw coins.
If true, this means there will be no one to flip to. With flippers out, the Mint is not going to sell 17,500 of anything, even this, at a $1,000 premium to the spot price of anything. Even gold.
Just watch. This is pretty obvious, and it won't take long for me to be proven right or wrong.
Before you feel the need to argue with me, @jmlanzaf, I do realize they don't have the FDOIs back from the TPGs yet. But they do have the Advance Releases, which are the same coins, so they are clearly extrapolating results.
The fact that they are confidently offering FDOI 70s also means their regular bulk orders are in, and filled, although they don't yet have the coins. Which also means no one, other than, apparently, PFS, is going to be paying anyone a premium to procure coins for them at retail from the Mint. And, as I said in a previous post, once PFS clues into the reality of the situation, it's doubtful they will honor whatever commitments they made.
"Would be making an offer" is not making an offer. They are not going to sell out, no offers will be made, and any offers that are made are not going to be honored.
Just take a look at eBay. Tons of graded coins offered, at very reasonable prices. Very few completed sales, at far more reasonable prices.
There is going to be no one for any "high-volume private buyer" to flip to, because dealers clearly have what they need, and are not getting huge premiums for what they have already placed on the market. No flip = no sell out. Not at 30 seconds. Not at 2 minutes. Not at 2 days.
Maybe eventually they sell out, if, in fact, there is retail demand for 17,500 of them. But it's not going to be instantaneous, via the masses buying on behalf of so-called high-volume private buyers who vanish with the wind when the anticipated flip fails to materialize.
Pop Report as of November 11, 2024...
728 non-privy medals graded since last report on 11/05
32.9% graded MS69 First Strike total.
19 more privy medals graded since last report on 11/05
25% graded MS69 First Strike total.
I admire your conviction. At least there's no confusion about where you stand.
There are no "regular bulk orders" other than ABPP that can be placed prior to the HHL being lifted. Haven't we already been through this?
Yes, we have. And yet, literally hundreds if not thousands of FDOI graded coins are being offered all over the internet. All on spec, with no guarantee anyone is going to get anything, because they might get crowded out before the HHL is lifted by you, me, and the army about to be set loose by all the "high volume private buyers"?
I disagreed with you before, and I'm disagreeing with you now. You don't know any more than I do, but, as smart as you are, you refuse to apply logic to what is right in front of you when something in writing is placed before you that contradicts what you see with your own lyin' eyes. As with 70 not being a permissible minimum grade for bulk submitters.
So, now bulk buyers are going to be in line right behind me on Friday at noon? And yet, with "only" 17,500 available, and the whole world having a 24 hour head start on them, they all know they are going to be able to buy sufficient quantity to receive, immediately, on Day One, enough to get them to a grading service to generate the quantity of FDOI 70s they need to fill their orders? And, they are all such risk takers that they can't wait until they know they have coins before offering them for sale?
Believe whatever you want. I say they already know they are getting them, and already know how they are going to grade. That's the only way they'd have the confidence to offer them for sale a week before the Mint's on sale date.
Otherwise, what's their upside? They might not get the coins, and the coins might not grade they way they expect. If either manifests, they take a bath.
Otherwise, what? They book a few sales a week earlier than otherwise? That risk/reward makes no sense for anyone who has been in business more than 5 minutes, so it's not what is actually happening, even if you have a document that says bulk sales are not made by the Mint until HHLs are lifted, or 24 hours after a product is first placed on sale, or whatever.
And if that's not what you're saying, but you mean they will be made available to bulk purchasers not last Friday, but this Thursday at noon, when the rest of the world is limited to 1 of the 15,750 remaining after the Advance Purchasers got their 10%, or whatever, it's the same thing. Because they know they can buy whatever they want, in bulk, while we are buying one at a time. Not a mystery.
The Mint does this to reduce traffic on the website, and to allow the public to get their 1. If PFS didn't get the memo, and sends bots in to clean the Mint out, the joke is going to be on them. Because the buyers from them in old days are now being satisfied up front by the Mint. That's all I'm saying here. No matter what you think you know, all the slabs being offered, at such attractive prices, leads to this conclusion.
You know as well as anyone, in the old days dealers would have been testing the market at at least 2x issue price for those 70s, if they even dared offer them for pre-sale at all without knowing they would be able to secure inventory. The quantity and the prices on eBay right now suggest there is not going to be a flip here, because dealers already have what they need, and the market is not gobbling up what has already been offered for sale.
That's why we are now seeing more true auctions in addition to the Buy It Nows. Because dealers have quantity they need to move, and they need to know what they market actually is before the curtain is lifted at noon on Thursday and anyone who wants one will be able to easily buy one at a mere $1,000 above the value of gold the day before.
They are either ABPP people or they are sellers who are expecting a supply from open market offers or ABPP sellers. Non-ABPP bulk buyers cannot place orders until the HHL is lifted. That's a fact. Ask the Mint or any of the bulk buyers on this forum.
Dealers pre-sell all the time. That's why the price is so high.
You are making allegations without foundation. Knock it off. FACTS matter. You can make any random prediction you want. But when you are making allegations of fact that are violations of Mint policy, it borders on actionable.
No. ABPP have no reason to forgo the premium associated with Advance Purchase labels. Unless you are just saying they also buy quantities in bulk above the permitted Advance Purchase quantities.
Which is no different from what I'm saying. Doesn't matter who's doing the buying. Just that it's being done. Because nothing would stop ABPP buyers from buying on behalf of non-ABPP bulk buyers. After all, they are all part of the same fraternity.
And no, dealers don't "pre-sell all the time" when there is a question regarding whether or not they will be able to secure inventory. At least not dealers who expect to remain in business.
And no, transaction prices are not actually "so high" for FDOI 70s. 30% above cost is not a lot for something that is going to be hot. Especially not after accounting for whatever does not grade 70. Next thing, if 80%+ of these end up grading 70, and 70s end up selling for $20 more than raw, you'll be telling me that the $20 is a "premium" on a $3700 coin.
It's right in the NBBP terms. They cannot circumvent order limits.
As for FDOI vs AR, ABPP will do both because they have buyers for both. FDOI also carries a premium and those people prefer that label. Dealers know their customers. You'll also notice that some people, not APBB, sell both FDOI and 1st strike even though FDOI usually has a higher premium.
You could save a lot of time, and maybe your soul, if you wouldn't waste time arguing against known facts. The only people who can order ahead are ABPP. Period. That's why those dealers live with the onerous terms. They pay 10% over sale price and have to go pick them up themselves. To think they would tolerate those terms if other people could also order them early?
Yes. I understand. It's in writing. Just like no minimum grades of 70 is in writing. So it doesn't happen. Multiple dealers are all just taking a flyer.
As I said before, believe what you want. I have nothing to point to. Just common sense, and what I see on eBay, and on multiple dealer websites.
Yes, they tolerate terms because they get early delivery and an attribution that carries a premium in the marketplace. Not because no other dealers can secure inventory ahead of the general public, even if it is not delivered ahead of time.
Again, if what I am saying simply cannot be true, where are all these coins coming from that dealers just know, beyond any doubt, will be in TPG hands in time to meet FDOI requirements, if their purchase has not been arranged ahead of time?
Are you seriously trying to tell me that the coins have not yet been purchased, there is no guarantee they will be able to be purchased, but they are being sold on a pre-sale basis on mere speculation? Not simply that they will receive enough 70s to fill their orders, but that they will even be in the TPGs hands by close of business Friday?
How, if they won't even be able to try to place an order before 12:01 p.m. on Friday? I'll tell you how -- because they are bought and paid for, and are going to be sent via overnight delivery to the TPG of the bulk buyers choice on Thursday, after they go on sale.
Or, handed to them in Baltimore on Thursday. Or Friday, for direct hand off to a TPG, if they want to maintain appearances and not have boxes of coins being handed to dealers or TPGs in front of people standing in line who can only buy one.
How do I know? Because I PERSONALLY witnessed multiple boxes of coins (Morgan and Peace Dollars, American Liberty coins, etc.) being handed over to the TPGs from behind the curtain at the Mint booth at multiple other shows while HHLs were in effect. Where do you think the show labels that show up on TV come from?
Clearly not Advance Release coins, but regular bulk purchases. Being distributed while HHLs were in effect. Where is that on your print out? And this was at multiple shows, in front of anyone with two eyes who happened to be paying attention. What do you think happens with any other release not coinciding with a show.
It's not a big deal. It's not a crime. But it's pretty obvious, based on what is available on eBay. And on the web. So why do you have to argue against things that are obvious? It's how the Mint moves product, and how dealers secure inventory.
Because forcing everyone to slam the website on noon Thursday serves no one's interest. Not mine, if I want to get one without having to compete with an army employed by an army of dealers to secure inventory in case there is a sell out.
Not the Mint's, who has to contend with a bunch of pissed off customers who can't buy a single coin as their website can't handle being slammed. And not the dealers', who after all, ARE the Mint's retail marketing partners here.
It's all good. But denying it, because, NBBP terms, denies the obvious. Just like with 70 minimum grades. Just a big coincidence that most of the early grades are 70s, and very few of the later ones are, after retail submissions flood into the TPGs.
Lies or fiction.
THERE are at least two bulk buyers on this forum. They can NOT place orders until Friday. Ask them.
I'm done. I'm going fishing with @WQuarterFreddie . But please stop making crap up.
Whatever. As I said before, believe what you want.
"Lies" tells me you have nothing. Not merely rude, but libelous. Because you have no way to know whether or not I am lying, while I happen to know for a fact, firsthand, because I was there, that I am not.
Half the people here seem convinced these are going to be Unavailable shortly after noon on Friday, and yet you believe multiple dealers are collectively risking hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars on a bet they will be able to fill orders they have no actual idea they will be able to fill, or get to a TPG in time. Whatever.
FDOI and and Show Labels will be available to those standing inline at the show, then walk the coin over and submit at the TPG table. Generally, show labels require you to show mint receipt from that day if they offer"First Day" "Baltimore Show" labels
There are pics of PCGS FH gold labels floating around. Not on PCGS site. Do you know if this will officially be offered?
If people are offering them for sale, they "officially" are going to have them. Doesn't mean you are going to be able to get one if they are not offered to retail submitters, but it would be false advertising to offer something you aren't going to have.
I don't have to ask anyone anything. You can ask everyone on eBay, as well as LCR, how they know they are going to be able to fill their orders for FDOI slabs, when FDOI coins have to be delivered to the TPGs by Friday, and they won't know whether or not they will even be able to place an order until then, with no way to actually get the coins from Point A to Point B the same day.
Since the First Day of Issue is Thursday, and they can't place an order until Friday, it sounds like their coins won't actually be FDOI, huh? How is that going to work? How does any bulk submitter get a coin to a TPG in 24 hours if they can't place orders for the first 24 hours?
What you are saying makes absolutely no sense, unless everything goes to the Advance Purchasers, and nothing goes to anyone else, including the bulk purchasers here on this forum. Other than maybe unwanted leftovers ineligible for any attribution the bulk purchasers so eagerly seek.
And, even if so, so what? So the "regular" bulk buyers here can't buy in advance, but others can? Above and beyond designated Advance Release coins?
Clearly, whatever is being offered now, Advance Purchase, FDOI, First Strike, whatever, has been secured. Otherwise, dealers are needlessly gambling. A lot of them. With little upsaide compared to the reputational risk and monetary downside associated with being unable to fill pre-sale orders.
Not lies and not fiction. No fear of a libel lawsuit, because I have no monetary damages, but you publicly accusing me of lying when I am not is libelous.
That guy is notoriously wrong and feels compelled to respond to everything. It is almost as if he tries to be wrong.
Maybe loneliness, maybe just seeking attention. All he wants from this board is some human interaction. Regardless his opinion is a time suck. His situation would make for a good psychology case study.
Yes. Notoriously. What am I wrong about now? These not selling out by the end of the week, even though they are currently being offered all over the internet at a modest premium to original issue price?
About people offering FDOI slabs all over the internet having already secured their supply, and not needing to buy them from PFS at a premium Friday afternoon? What? We'll see.
I thought this topic was supposed to be about the silver medal
I dont see show specific labels being offered by NGC or PCGS. I will make some phone calls tomorrow.
They generally offer show labels only to coins bought at the show on the first day of the show. These lables generally carry a premium
You are making it up. They don't sell bulk in advance on limited mintages to anyone but ABPP. And you keep saying they do... for no reason except you can't figure out how people could do pre-sales in advance. Stop making crap up. You will convince people that your fiction is a fact.
Again, it's clear they sell in advance, beyond the coins designated as Advance Release, because they are all over the internet. What's the difference just who they are selling to? I have absolutely figured out how the sellers can sell in advance. They have secured inventory from the US Mint. That's how.
That is not how the Mint operates. You didn't figure it out. You made it up. I've sold to bulk buyers in Anand because that's the only way they can get them. That's why they post bid in advance of sale.
Please label your posts as fiction so no one is misled.
I'm not labeling anything as fiction. I personally saw a lot of boxes being moved by Treasury security to TPG booths at multiple shows while HHLs were in effect. They were clearly not Advance Release material.
I see a lot of FDOI slabs all over the internet. TODAY, 3 days before the on sale date.
No way all those sellers are speculating on obtaining inventory at the same time @treybenedict is aggressively posting bids in anticipation of a fast sell out. I stand by what I believe.
I don't know whether only certain folks are allowed to buy in advance, beyond the 10% allocated to Advance Release, or whether any bulk buyer can. Doesn't matter who's buying.
Only matters that inventory is available to dealers, in advance, beyond Advance Release examples. Which is why I think @treybenedict is going to get hurt making commitments to buy at above Mint retail before seeing whether or not there is a sell out.
Because I don't think he is going to have dealers, or anyone else, to sell to at a profit if there is not a sell out on Thursday or Friday. And my Ouija board tells me there won't be one.
Relax..... pretty sure many of us stopped reading both of your posts days ago.🙄
Clueless and confused…. Ouija boards are not for foreseeing the future.
Please read the link I sent above?
Great. If you stopped reading posts, why are you compelled to respond to them? Feeling left out? 🤣
It's fine -- your participation is ALWAYS welcome. 😀
Mine is. 😀
So you're not a principal on your transactions? Okay, if so, I guess that explains why you won't get hurt.
OTOH, it REALLY doesn't explain why anyone would be willing to pay even more than your posted bid to buy something that has not yet sold out from the source, and very well might not.
In any event, good luck. It seems as though you know what you are doing, and have no downside as long as you have properly vetted your buyers in order to ensure that your sellers get paid regardless of what happens to the market.
The answer is because the people who are pre-selling slabs are sourcing from people like Trey. That's what I can't seem to get through to you. There is a pre-sale wholesale market not a back door to the Mint.
Your back and forth posts are getting as annoying as all the criminals vs liberals tv ads we had to watch for months.
Please keep politics out of it. You may ignore both me and the politicians.
I just don’t know why anyone would take anything NJ says as truth at this point. When you are so wrong so many times and unwilling to admit it. The boy who cried wolf comes to mind at this point.
Are they, though? Because Trey seems to be sourcing from the public. Which means he is never going to have FDOI slabs to wholesale to anyone.
The pre-sale wholesale market you refer to is ultimately being sourced by the Mint. Doesn't matter who they are selling to early. Only matters that they are.
And THAT means those retailers won't be looking to the flipping market to secure inventory. How can can you argue that when you see what is being offered for sale, at the prices being offered?
Yes. So wrong. So many times. And, never admit when I miss something. 🤣
We'll see. This is pretty black and white, and it's only 3 days away. And, if it sells out in 3 weeks, with no flip, you will get to say that you were right and I was wrong, because I always am.
Just like if the 25K missing silver medals show up and prices collapse for the raws, because they were propped up for a few weeks by a bad sales report I couldn't foresee. Or, if they never go down because the Mint, for the first time in recent memory, did not produce a product in high demand up to its maximum mintage, even with a lottery kicker. "Wolf."
Right or wrong, some folks listen to me because there is a logic behind what I think. You, on the other hand, just get to Monday Morning Quarterback, so you are never wrong. Congratulations, but it really doesn't take as much talent as you seem to think it does to know the score after the game is over!!!
I just saw that, a downward revision.
I will be so glad, probably sometime next year, when this flowing hair speculation, flipping, waste of time cat fight is over. The moderator probably quit reading this thread as well in frustration.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I'm wondering if the Gold FH might do better than expected. Everyone seems to be assuming that they're going to produce the maximum 17500. How does the narrative change if they only make 10k? That's still a lot, but I think these are going to be popular.
This says 17,500 were produced
https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/230th-anniversary-flowing-hair-gold-dollar-coin-nears-sale-date