@jwitten said:
I think you’re confused. The us mint email confirmed that NJ lost. Again.
@tcollects said:
I don't know what's more hilarious - that NJ spent hundreds of hours on this thread, that his haters lost this epic coin forum battle in the end, or that it only took a short email to the mint to get an answer
ahahaha that's beautiful, after all that arguing, what a hill to die on, and I didn't even get it, hilarious
@HalfDime said:
The person with all the answers to this riddle is Michael White at the US Mint. With all of the questions I am surprised that the coin sites have not contacted him on the total sales.
Can't speak for the "coin sites", or numis-media, but I contacted Mr. White's office, and inquired. The person that I interacted with could not answer in real-time, but promised a response. 'If/when' I hear back, I will post the info here.
The Mint responded to my inquiry about the '230th Anniversary Flowing Hair Silver Medal' (24YH) mintage level. A screenshot follows.
Thank you @MetroD for obtaining this valuable info from the MInt.....great job!
And kudos to @NJCoin who deserves some real cred for harping on the 50k mintage of the silver FH Medal against lots of resistance from other posters.
Under the circumstances, I'm not going to concede being wrong about the secondary market pricing of the non-privys, since I had no way to know they would gratuitously limit the mintage to 2/3 of the authorized total. But I will give a shout out to @jmlanzaf for recognizing the possibility, or even likelihood, of the mintage being limited when I could not imagine it.
Yes, you know what happens when we ASSume things!
I sure do! But, at the end of the day, you either take people and institutions at their word, or you go through life flying blind.
Didn't ASSume anything. Read a Mint press release, and all the accompanying information on its website, and took them at face value. That turns out to have been a mistake.
No, you assumed they would mint the limit, not understanding that "limit" doesn't mean "production commitment."
But since he firmly believed that they wouldn't be popular or sell out at 75k, i don't see his the 50k mintage is even relevant. They were/are simply more popular than he thought... by a lot.
Again, please stop saying that, because it's not true. That was before they announced the lottery.
As I have repeated said since the day they announced the lottery, these were always going to sell out. Regardless of how many they were going to make.
The question then became whether or not they would accept returns after privys were stripped from packages. Please go back and look if you don't believe me. It's all here, in black and white. Multiple long winded posts. Won't be hard to find.
I was talking about before the privy announcement. We are now after the privy lottery and the secondary market remains hotter than you predicted. You predicted $70. Yet, here we are with 50k sold (as many or more than you would have predicted pre-privy) and they have not fallen to that level. Period. Just admit you were wrong about the secondary market price. It's not that hard to say.
Again, of course. The mintage turns out to have been 2/3 of what was announced. Of course they are going to do better than anything anyone would have predicted with a 50% higher mintage.
And yes, it is hard to say. You are correct that I don't think they would have sold more than 50K without a lottery. Apparently they weren't sure they could sell more than that WITH the lottery!
That said, my $70 prediction was based on 75K, not 50K. Raw coins are currently steady at $225. Definitely higher than I would have predicted, so I guess I can admit that.
Beyond that, I don't know what to say, because all of this is unprecedented and unforeseeable. The lottery to move the 75K. Choosing not to even try to move the 75K. No announcing that until a month later. Etc.
All bets are off for me, because I couldn't see any of that. Same with the gold now.
Everything I am saying is based on 230 privys, 17,500 regular coins, no lottery, etc. If they just seed the 17,500 with privys, that will change my thoughts. Same if the 230 becomes 2300. Or if the 17,500 becomes 7,500. Or if they drop the premium by $500.
I am making predictions based on what they are announcing. There is plenty of room for disagreement, apparently, even if they do what they say they are going to do.
Beating me up because they pull things out of thin air, and I turn out to be wrong as a result, is kind of pointless. Unless it makes certain people feel good.
Because I certainly don't feel bad about taking what a US Government agency says at face value. And I will continue to do so. And not feel bad if they don't follow through, and my predictions don't pan out as a result.
@Goldminers said:
Where are all these 1,794 silver privies? Not seeing very many graded, or even for sale yet, compared to the total. If more showed up, the price would probably be dropping a little more. Same with the "50,000" standard ones. I also thought the actual sales prices would be dropping a little more for 70's at this stage.
I sent mine in for grading and they haven't even opened it and entered it into the system yet.
Aren't you answering your own question regarding where all the medals are? 😀
If dealers were holding inventory off the market waiting for Mint confirmation that the mintage would be 1/3 less than initially announced, that would be the smart move, and would also explain why you aren't seeing them for sale. Yet.
As far as prices dropping, 70s, 69s, raw, that will depend on just how many have been held off the market, and whether there is greater demand for them than otherwise with the lower announced mintage when they do hit the market. I actually have no opinion now, but could make an argument that they either go up or down from here, given that it's a one-off with a final mintage of 50K.
@Goldminers said:
I sent mine in for grading and they haven't even opened it and entered it into the system yet.
When did they get it? They've been entering mine about 2 days after receipt lately. I sent mine in the day after I got it and I already have mine back and graded - Modern Economy Service.
@NJCoin said:
Again, of course. The mintage turns out to have been 2/3 of what was announced. Of course they are going to do better than anything anyone would have predicted with a 50% higher mintage.
You seem to be missing the key words.
They didn't announce a mintage of 75k. The announced a LIMIT of 75k. You ASSumed them to be the same but they are not.
@Goldminers said:
I sent mine in for grading and they haven't even opened it and entered it into the system yet.
When did they get it? They've been entering mine about 2 days after receipt lately. I sent mine in the day after I got it and I already have mine back and graded - Modern Economy Service.
@NJCoin said:
Again, of course. The mintage turns out to have been 2/3 of what was announced. Of course they are going to do better than anything anyone would have predicted with a 50% higher mintage.
You seem to be missing the key words.
They didn't announce a mintage of 75k. The announced a LIMIT of 75k. You ASSumed them to be the same but they are not.
Yes. A HUGE ASSumption. Because they NEVER mint to the limit when the demand is there. This would have been the first time.
And they always create a lottery to sell 2/3 of a mintage limit. My bad. I missed the key words. 🤣🤣
What's the point of announcing a mintage LIMIT if it doesn't mean anything, and they could end up only making and selling a fraction of the limit, regardless of demand?
Why not just say nothing, and only tell us through sales reports and Unavailable notices on the website, after the fact, what they are minting and making available for sale? That way there would be no room for bad ASSumptions?
Maybe because this is the first time, EVER, that they killed a product short of the mintage limit when there was demand, and no apparent reason, such as supply chain issues, that they could not mint to the limit?
This time, for whatever reason, they chose to make 50K when they announced a limit of 75K, seeded that 50K with the 1794 privys without announcing THAT ahead of time, and then unilaterally chose to go with that, without announcing anything until a month later.
And then, only in response to a written inquiry. Leading to an unjustified ASSumption. Yes, my bad. What was I thinking? 🤣🤣
Less than 2 hours to go! I'm glad we have people on the ground in Baltimore to report. Photos of the US Mint booth in Baltimore would be greatly appreciated!
@NJCoin This time, for whatever reason, they chose to make 50K when they announced a limit of 75K, seeded that 50K with the 1794 privys without announcing THAT ahead of time, and then unilaterally chose to go with that, without announcing anything until a month later.
Did you ever think the Mint or their distributor(s) made a mistake and included all the privys in the 50,000 instead of holding back 1/3. Believe the coins with privys would have been minted first and that obv die retired. Somebody made a mistake and couldn't count. So that even after sales were good on Day 1 and demand grew in the market, they decided they couldn't mint the last 25,000 without any privys to distribute.
I wonder how many privies will end up sitting in original Mint boxes, held by ordinary but oblivious collectors, not realizing they are worth considerable market premiums.
@coastaljerseyguy said: @NJCoin This time, for whatever reason, they chose to make 50K when they announced a limit of 75K, seeded that 50K with the 1794 privys without announcing THAT ahead of time, and then unilaterally chose to go with that, without announcing anything until a month later.
Did you ever think the Mint or their distributor(s) made a mistake and included all the privys in the 50,000 instead of holding back 1/3. Believe the coins with privys would have been minted first and that obv die retired. Somebody made a mistake and couldn't count. So that even after sales were good on Day 1 and demand grew in the market, they decided they couldn't mint the last 25,000 without any privys to distribute.
Nope. Of course, anything is possible, but that would be a pretty big mistake. And pretty difficult to make, IMHO.
They do this for a living. Confusing 50K with 75K would be pretty inconceivable. Hopefully, someday, Coin World will get to the bottom of what actually happened, and report it to the world. But I'm not holding my breath.
Comments
ahahaha that's beautiful, after all that arguing, what a hill to die on, and I didn't even get it, hilarious
.
Again, of course. The mintage turns out to have been 2/3 of what was announced. Of course they are going to do better than anything anyone would have predicted with a 50% higher mintage.
And yes, it is hard to say. You are correct that I don't think they would have sold more than 50K without a lottery. Apparently they weren't sure they could sell more than that WITH the lottery!
That said, my $70 prediction was based on 75K, not 50K. Raw coins are currently steady at $225. Definitely higher than I would have predicted, so I guess I can admit that.
Beyond that, I don't know what to say, because all of this is unprecedented and unforeseeable. The lottery to move the 75K. Choosing not to even try to move the 75K. No announcing that until a month later. Etc.
All bets are off for me, because I couldn't see any of that. Same with the gold now.
Everything I am saying is based on 230 privys, 17,500 regular coins, no lottery, etc. If they just seed the 17,500 with privys, that will change my thoughts. Same if the 230 becomes 2300. Or if the 17,500 becomes 7,500. Or if they drop the premium by $500.
I am making predictions based on what they are announcing. There is plenty of room for disagreement, apparently, even if they do what they say they are going to do.
Beating me up because they pull things out of thin air, and I turn out to be wrong as a result, is kind of pointless. Unless it makes certain people feel good.
Because I certainly don't feel bad about taking what a US Government agency says at face value. And I will continue to do so. And not feel bad if they don't follow through, and my predictions don't pan out as a result.
Aren't you answering your own question regarding where all the medals are? 😀
If dealers were holding inventory off the market waiting for Mint confirmation that the mintage would be 1/3 less than initially announced, that would be the smart move, and would also explain why you aren't seeing them for sale. Yet.
As far as prices dropping, 70s, 69s, raw, that will depend on just how many have been held off the market, and whether there is greater demand for them than otherwise with the lower announced mintage when they do hit the market. I actually have no opinion now, but could make an argument that they either go up or down from here, given that it's a one-off with a final mintage of 50K.
When did they get it? They've been entering mine about 2 days after receipt lately. I sent mine in the day after I got it and I already have mine back and graded - Modern Economy Service.
You seem to be missing the key words.
They didn't announce a mintage of 75k. The announced a LIMIT of 75k. You ASSumed them to be the same but they are not.
perfection!
(does that barcode scan?)
Yes. A HUGE ASSumption. Because they NEVER mint to the limit when the demand is there. This would have been the first time.
And they always create a lottery to sell 2/3 of a mintage limit. My bad. I missed the key words. 🤣🤣
What's the point of announcing a mintage LIMIT if it doesn't mean anything, and they could end up only making and selling a fraction of the limit, regardless of demand?
Why not just say nothing, and only tell us through sales reports and Unavailable notices on the website, after the fact, what they are minting and making available for sale? That way there would be no room for bad ASSumptions?
Maybe because this is the first time, EVER, that they killed a product short of the mintage limit when there was demand, and no apparent reason, such as supply chain issues, that they could not mint to the limit?
This time, for whatever reason, they chose to make 50K when they announced a limit of 75K, seeded that 50K with the 1794 privys without announcing THAT ahead of time, and then unilaterally chose to go with that, without announcing anything until a month later.
And then, only in response to a written inquiry. Leading to an unjustified ASSumption. Yes, my bad. What was I thinking? 🤣🤣
Not on my iPhone.
Edited to add: just noticed you can scan barcode in the app.
Less than 2 hours to go! I'm glad we have people on the ground in Baltimore to report. Photos of the US Mint booth in Baltimore would be greatly appreciated!
I've seen a photo this am. 60+ people in line right now.
@NJCoin This time, for whatever reason, they chose to make 50K when they announced a limit of 75K, seeded that 50K with the 1794 privys without announcing THAT ahead of time, and then unilaterally chose to go with that, without announcing anything until a month later.
Did you ever think the Mint or their distributor(s) made a mistake and included all the privys in the 50,000 instead of holding back 1/3. Believe the coins with privys would have been minted first and that obv die retired. Somebody made a mistake and couldn't count. So that even after sales were good on Day 1 and demand grew in the market, they decided they couldn't mint the last 25,000 without any privys to distribute.
If you guys are right maybe they will still release the 25k. Says not available, does not say sold out
Got my FH Gold dollar. Got right in at 9:00 PT no wait. Done in 20 seconds.
I wonder how many privies will end up sitting in original Mint boxes, held by ordinary but oblivious collectors, not realizing they are worth considerable market premiums.
They would have to do it in a different offering because the product limit is 50k even though the mintage limit is 75k.
Nope. Of course, anything is possible, but that would be a pretty big mistake. And pretty difficult to make, IMHO.
They do this for a living. Confusing 50K with 75K would be pretty inconceivable. Hopefully, someday, Coin World will get to the bottom of what actually happened, and report it to the world. But I'm not holding my breath.