@WQuarterFreddie said:
Well I tried calling the US Mint Coin Store in Washington DC. Turns out it's the phone number to the US Mint.
I talked with a Customer Service rep who put me on hold to find the number to the actual Coin Store location. Turns out it's the same phone number!🙄
That's 5 minutes of my life I will never get back!😂🤣
Sales Counter (Headquarters) 1–202–354–6800
Thank you! I will call them Monday morning.
I can save you a dime. If they are selling for $200+ on eBay, they are not selling for $104 at the Mint Sales Counter. They are UNAVAILABLE at $104. Which is why they are selling for $200+ on eBay. 🙄
just a thought here - but is it also possible some of the "supposedily remaining" 25,000 silver medals will be paired with gold flowing hair medals and auctioned by the US Mint?
I will be at Baltimore with an early bird badge on Nov 14. I will be at the USM table - we will hopefully have some answers then.
@coiner said:
just a thought here - but is it also possible some of the "supposedily remaining" 25,000 silver medals will be paired with gold flowing hair medals and auctioned by the US Mint?
I will be at Baltimore with an early bird badge on Nov 14. I will be at the USM table - we will hopefully have some answers then.
Yes. I agree, and I have previously said that. But the number, if any, will be several hundred. Not several thousand, or several tens of thousand.
So, while interesting, that possibility sheds no light on a missing 25K. What it does do is cast doubt on the validity of only 50K being produced, as evidenced by the fact that exactly 49,996 have been reported sold.
Because, if anything at all is being held back for pairing with gold coins for auction, the production would already have to be an odd number in excess of 50K, after taking into account the 49,996 reported sold to date.
@MsMorrisine said:
the job of the sales counter peopl is to sell. they often have little info beyond what the website has, but it wouldn't hurt to try
Exactly. I am surprised no one else has made the effort to visit the coin stores in Washington DC and Philadelphia or at least make the phone calls.
🤣🤣🤣
And therein lies the disconnect. They have been Unavailable from the Mint at $104 since 12:02 p.m. on October 16th, other than popping up for a few seconds at 7:30 a.m. on a few random days since.
There is an active market for them on eBay, at prices ranging from the mid-$100s to the mid-$200s since 12:02 p.m. on October 16th. And yet you are "surprised no one else has made the effort to visit the coin stores in Washington DC and Philadelphia or at least make the phone calls," as though no one else would have thought what you are thinking, and that any stock any Mint retail location might have had access to would not have been cleaned out by close of business on October 16th.
So feel free to make some calls to confirm it, because my batting average is terrible and I have no idea what I am talking about.
Pop Report as of November 2, 2024..................
567 more non-privy medals graded since last report on 10/29/2024...38.3% graded MS69 First Strike.
15 more privy medals graded since last report on 10/29/2024...21.1% graded MS69 First Strike
567 more non-privy medals graded since last report on 10/29/2024...38.3% graded MS69 First Strike.
15 more privy medals graded since last report on 10/29/2024...21.1% graded MS69 First Strike
Does anyone have the total number of privies graded? CACG, PCGS, NGC & ANACS? Curious as to the current number.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
While the privy's do not need grading to sell for big bucks, interesting < 20% have graded PCGS & NGC in 2 weeks. Doubt ANACS and ICG had many graded.
Not that interesting. Grading takes time. Time to grade. Time to make it into a report.
It's only been 2 weeks. Lots more to come.
Just to use the NGC report posted above as an example, it is only reporting 10x as many Morgan and Peace Dollars as FH, and that's after 3 months, not 2 weeks. And with their sales being more than 2x or 3x higher, depending on whether you believe 50K or 75K for the FH.
Meaning the grading percent for FH after 2 weeks is not aberrationally low, and lots more will make it into grading reports in the next few weeks.
Looks like ANACS requires you to register for an account in order to review their pop report. I have not done this, so I cannot post it. Perhaps someone else can.
@NJCoin said:
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
Seems like a reasonable take (i.e., being misled by the Mint renders one's prediction(s) about demand value of the medal null & void).
Love this thread, btw. Enjoying it almost as much as my actual medal (which I just pulled out of the safe to inspect )
What a mystery about the final mintage! USM being very shady! [or at least sloppy/inefficient/incompetent]
@NJCoin said:
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
Seems like a reasonable take (i.e., being misled by the Mint renders one's prediction(s) about demand value of the medal null & void).
Love this thread, btw. Enjoying it almost as much as my actual medal (which I just pulled out of the safe to inspect )
What a mystery about the final mintage! USM being very shady! [or at least sloppy/inefficient/incompetent]
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists.
Look at the spouse gold coins. They didn't Mint the 10k or 15k mag when they were selling lessing than 2000. Minting and then melting 13,000 coins would wipe our any profit.
For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins.
They also sometimes don't have either the blanks or packaging available to Mayfair the full mintage at one time.
And the misinformation king here is NJ who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
@jmlanzaf said:
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists. ...For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins...
And the misinformation king here is NJ who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
I understand what you're saying, that a specified "Mintage Limit" is just the upper parameter for what could be produced.
It's just interesting and compelling to wonder /if/how the Mint got this wrong, or if they're not even aware that the've created confusion and concerns of corruption, or if they're actually very corrupt and this was the plan all along, etc,, etc.
I like NJ's stridency, btw. He keeps my excitement up! lol
@jmlanzaf said:
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists. ...For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins...
And the misinformation king here is NJ who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
I understand what you're saying, that a specified "Mintage Limit" is just the upper parameter for what could be produced.
It's just interesting and compelling to wonder /if/how the Mint got this wrong, or if they're not even aware that the've created confusion and concerns of corruption, or if they're actually very corrupt and this was the plan all along, etc,, etc.
I like NJ's stridency, btw. He keeps my excitement up! lol
"Corruption"? Minting 50,000 out of a maximum 75k is hardly corrupt. It benefits then in no way whatsoever.
@NJCoin said:
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
Seems like a reasonable take (i.e., being misled by the Mint renders one's prediction(s) about demand value of the medal null & void).
Love this thread, btw. Enjoying it almost as much as my actual medal (which I just pulled out of the safe to inspect )
What a mystery about the final mintage! USM being very shady! [or at least sloppy/inefficient/incompetent]
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists.
Look at the spouse gold coins. They didn't Mint the 10k or 15k mag when they were selling lessing than 2000. Minting and then melting 13,000 coins would wipe our any profit.
For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins.
They also sometimes don't have either the blanks or packaging available to Mayfair the full mintage at one time.
And the misinformation king here is NJ who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
Sure it's not. When they say any amount at all, it's totally meaningless. 🤣
You then correctly follow up by saying "[t]hey Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists." That didn't happen here.
The number is 75K, not 500K. They engineered a lottery to make sure they sold. They sold out in 2 minutes once the HHL was lifted. And they never put them on Back Order.
It's not First Spouse coin. And it's a fiction to say that they would not have happily sold every last one authorized to be minted if there was demand. So please stop distracting with examples that you know full well are irrelevant, just to make a point.
Not making something they know they can't sell, since they are unable to sell what they have already made, is very different from cutting off sales after making 67% of the maximum when what they have made sells out in 24 hours and 2 minutes. You know this.
If blanks were not available, there would be an ASE shortage. There is not. If packaging was unavailable, they would do what they have done every single time in the past.
They would announce that through their website, and/or the press, apologize for the resulting delivery delay, and keep taking orders on a Back Order basis. You know full well they would not simply abandon 25K in potential sales, at a $70 premium to $34 silver, and move on to the next big thing.
Never happened before. Isn't happening now. Trust me, the car keys are somewhere in the house. They will turn up. 😀
I am not spreading misinformation. And am not wrong about anything, until proven otherwise. When I turn out to be right, it won't be the first time there was a large adjustment to a previously reported sales figure. And you know that.
So just keep on posting. It will only make the ultimate resolution that much sweeter for me. 😀
@jmlanzaf said:
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists. ...For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins...
And the misinformation king here is NJ who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
I understand what you're saying, that a specified "Mintage Limit" is just the upper parameter for what could be produced.
It's just interesting and compelling to wonder /if/how the Mint got this wrong, or if they're not even aware that the've created confusion and concerns of corruption, or if they're actually very corrupt and this was the plan all along, etc,, etc.
I like NJ's stridency, btw. He keeps my excitement up! lol
"Corruption"? Minting 50,000 out of a maximum 75k is hardly corrupt. It benefits then in no way whatsoever.
Correct. Which is why it didn't happen!!! They were sold. Because, if they weren't sold, they would never have stopped taking orders, whether or not they were already minted.
It's a reporting mistake that will eventually be fixed. Not corruption. Because, as you said, they have no incentive. Especially not with reporting being so transparent.
@jmlanzaf said:
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists. ...For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins...
And the misinformation king here is NJ who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
I understand what you're saying, that a specified "Mintage Limit" is just the upper parameter for what could be produced.
It's just interesting and compelling to wonder /if/how the Mint got this wrong, or if they're not even aware that the've created confusion and concerns of corruption, or if they're actually very corrupt and this was the plan all along, etc,, etc.
I like NJ's stridency, btw. He keeps my excitement up! lol
Thank you for the kind words. The stridency is just a reaction to the reaction to me.
It's not a huge conspiracy. It's an obvious mistake that people are getting all worked up over because they have no patience, and very limited intermediate short term memory.
Issues with the Mint's weekly sales report are not uncommon. No one usually pays attention, because the issues don't ordinarily involve such a large percent of the maximum mintage, on something that goes unavailable for sale almost immediately. Many now apparently believe the large percent means this time is different.
I'm not buying that. I just happen to think the large percent is the result of a large number from one particular source (bulk sales) not finding their way into the report. It will ultimately resolve itself, because it always does.
ABPP sales missed the first report, even though they were the first sales made. Literally weeks before any sales were made to the public. That mistake was fixed in Week 2, and no one batted an eye. And yet, no one other than me seems to think it is more likely than not that the 25K is also floating around somewhere, just waiting to be reflected in a subsequent sales report update.
In the meantime, imaginations are running wild. And I, with my certainty (lack of humility, arrogance, etc.), am upsetting people by interfering with their desire to imagine.
Not sure about dead horses, but this medal is getting serious mileage.
The rims are so high and sharp though.
As to mintage, I will wait on the Red Book.
@NJCoin said:
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
Seems like a reasonable take (i.e., being misled by the Mint renders one's prediction(s) about demand value of the medal null & void).
Love this thread, btw. Enjoying it almost as much as my actual medal (which I just pulled out of the safe to inspect )
What a mystery about the final mintage! USM being very shady! [or at least sloppy/inefficient/incompetent]
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists.
Look at the spouse gold coins. They didn't Mint the 10k or 15k mag when they were selling lessing than 2000. Minting and then melting 13,000 coins would wipe our any profit.
For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins.
They also sometimes don't have either the blanks or packaging available to Mayfair the full mintage at one time.
And the misinformation king here is NJCoin who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
Evidence to the contrary is that the mint's data can take two or three weeks to catch up with the reports. I'm not saying that's the case this time, only that it's happened several times in the last 20 years. We're going to have to wait until the report on 12th or 19th of November. That or Coin World or Numismatic News get concrete information from the mint. Right now I'm in agreement with NJCoin, I think they've all been struck & sold.
@NJCoin said:
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
Seems like a reasonable take (i.e., being misled by the Mint renders one's prediction(s) about demand value of the medal null & void).
Love this thread, btw. Enjoying it almost as much as my actual medal (which I just pulled out of the safe to inspect )
What a mystery about the final mintage! USM being very shady! [or at least sloppy/inefficient/incompetent]
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists.
Look at the spouse gold coins. They didn't Mint the 10k or 15k mag when they were selling lessing than 2000. Minting and then melting 13,000 coins would wipe our any profit.
For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins.
They also sometimes don't have either the blanks or packaging available to Mayfair the full mintage at one time.
And the misinformation king here is NJCoin who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
Evidence to the contrary is that the mint's data can take two or three weeks to catch up with the reports. I'm not saying that's the case this time, only that it's happened several times in the last 20 years. We're going to have to wait until the report on 12th or 19th of November. That or Coin World or Numismatic News get concrete information from the mint. Right now I'm in agreement with NJCoin, I think they've all been struck & sold.
The Mint data fluctuates due to returns and bulk purchases which sometimes take time to be added in - but they've already been added here. There can be a lag when they are waiting for payments to clear. I've never seen the number sold via the website lag. And, more importantly, I've never seen 1/3 if the mintage suddenly get credited later. Are you aware of such a case?
As I've said numerous times, I don't know for sure whether it's is 50k or 75k. And anyone unwilling to acknowledge the opposite possibility is blindly obstinate.
I am not spreading misinformation. **And am not wrong about anything, until proven otherwise.
__
Just a quick question. Why are you not wrong until proven wrong, but everyone else is wrong because you say they're wrong?
Excellent question, and I don't really have a good answer. We are all right until someone is proven wrong.
So I guess what I don't appreciate is being scolded for my conviction and refusal to back down, just because some are annoyed with my certainty, and because a sales report two weeks after release says something different to them than to me.
I have not asked anyone to modify or hedge their opinion, and have said on more than one occasion that that I will publicly apologize if I turn out to be wrong. Yet I have not seen a single person giving me a hard time reciprocate and say they will do the same.
So I guess a difference is, while we are all right until proven otherwise, I am not asking anyone at this point in time to bend a knee and move off their position, while there is a post at least once per day expressing annoyance with my conviction, and blatantly saying that I am wrong, because the most recent sales report says so, with no definitive explanation from any authoritative source regarding what happened to the missing 25K.
I'm waiting for that, and can't control for the fact that others have already declared the game over. Or, at least, are insisting on a concession from me before the game is over.
@NJCoin said:
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
Seems like a reasonable take (i.e., being misled by the Mint renders one's prediction(s) about demand value of the medal null & void).
Love this thread, btw. Enjoying it almost as much as my actual medal (which I just pulled out of the safe to inspect )
What a mystery about the final mintage! USM being very shady! [or at least sloppy/inefficient/incompetent]
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists.
Look at the spouse gold coins. They didn't Mint the 10k or 15k mag when they were selling lessing than 2000. Minting and then melting 13,000 coins would wipe our any profit.
For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins.
They also sometimes don't have either the blanks or packaging available to Mayfair the full mintage at one time.
And the misinformation king here is NJCoin who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
Evidence to the contrary is that the mint's data can take two or three weeks to catch up with the reports. I'm not saying that's the case this time, only that it's happened several times in the last 20 years. We're going to have to wait until the report on 12th or 19th of November. That or Coin World or Numismatic News get concrete information from the mint. Right now I'm in agreement with NJCoin, I think they've all been struck & sold.
The Mint data fluctuates due to returns and bulk purchases which sometimes take time to be added in - but they've already been added here. There can be a lag when they are waiting for payments to clear. I've never seen the number sold via the website lag. And, more importantly, I've never seen 1/3 if the mintage suddenly get credited later. Are you aware of such a case?
As I've said numerous times, I don't know for sure whether it's is 50k or 75k. And anyone unwilling to acknowledge the opposite possibility is blindly obstinate.
Blindly obstinate, or firm in their conviction? Tomato, tomahto.
You've never seen 1/3 of the mintage get added back later? And I've never seen a popular release have sales cut off on Day 2 with 1/3 of the maximum mintage left unsold. One of us is going to be in for a new experience. My money is on it being you.
Just because you are uncertain does not mean I have to be. Sorry not sorry that annoys you.
And, for the record, I have "acknowledged the opposite possibility." I put the odds at exactly 0.1%. Sorry not sorry that's not enough for you.
And, actually, no. You are engaging in a little revisionist history here.
You have been pretty insistent that 49,996 in reported sales strongly implies only 50K have been made. Not simply throwing the question out for us, without "know[ing] for sure whether it's is 50K or 75K." Likely because I have been insisting the number is 75K, and you just have to be on the other side.
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
Not sure about dead horses, but this medal is getting serious mileage.
The rims are so high and sharp though.
As to mintage, I will wait on the Red Book.
Significant abrasion on the cheek as well. You might have the apple cheek variety.
@NJCoin said:
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
Seems like a reasonable take (i.e., being misled by the Mint renders one's prediction(s) about demand value of the medal null & void).
Love this thread, btw. Enjoying it almost as much as my actual medal (which I just pulled out of the safe to inspect )
What a mystery about the final mintage! USM being very shady! [or at least sloppy/inefficient/incompetent]
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists.
Look at the spouse gold coins. They didn't Mint the 10k or 15k mag when they were selling lessing than 2000. Minting and then melting 13,000 coins would wipe our any profit.
For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins.
They also sometimes don't have either the blanks or packaging available to Mayfair the full mintage at one time.
And the misinformation king here is NJCoin who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
Evidence to the contrary is that the mint's data can take two or three weeks to catch up with the reports. I'm not saying that's the case this time, only that it's happened several times in the last 20 years. We're going to have to wait until the report on 12th or 19th of November. That or Coin World or Numismatic News get concrete information from the mint. Right now I'm in agreement with NJCoin, I think they've all been struck & sold.
The Mint data fluctuates due to returns and bulk purchases which sometimes take time to be added in - but they've already been added here. There can be a lag when they are waiting for payments to clear. I've never seen the number sold via the website lag. And, more importantly, I've never seen 1/3 if the mintage suddenly get credited later. Are you aware of such a case?
As I've said numerous times, I don't know for sure whether it's is 50k or 75k. And anyone unwilling to acknowledge the opposite possibility is blindly obstinate.
Blindly obstinate, or firm in their conviction? Tomato, tomahto.
You've never seen 1/3 of the mintage get added back later? And I've never seen a popular release have sales cut off on Day 2 with 1/3 of the maximum mintage left unsold. One of us is going to be in for a new experience. My money is on it being you.
Just because you are uncertain does not mean I have to be. Sorry not sorry that annoys you.
And, for the record, I have "acknowledged the opposite possibility." I put the odds at exactly 0.1%. Sorry not sorry that's not enough for you.
And, actually, no. You are engaging in a little revisionist history here.
You have been pretty insistent that 49,996 in reported sales strongly implies only 50K have been made. Not simply throwing the question out for us, without "know[ing] for sure whether it's is 50K or 75K." Likely because I have been insisting the number is 75K, and you just have to be on the other side.
Not true. I raised the possibility when the first numbers came out. Everything since then has made it seem more likely. If you look back, I've always maintained the possibility of 75,000.
If you look even farther back, I offered no opinion on the secondary market despite your position there. So I clearly don't just take the other side.
@NJCoin said:
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
Seems like a reasonable take (i.e., being misled by the Mint renders one's prediction(s) about demand value of the medal null & void).
Love this thread, btw. Enjoying it almost as much as my actual medal (which I just pulled out of the safe to inspect )
What a mystery about the final mintage! USM being very shady! [or at least sloppy/inefficient/incompetent]
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists.
Look at the spouse gold coins. They didn't Mint the 10k or 15k mag when they were selling lessing than 2000. Minting and then melting 13,000 coins would wipe our any profit.
For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins.
They also sometimes don't have either the blanks or packaging available to Mayfair the full mintage at one time.
And the misinformation king here is NJCoin who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
Evidence to the contrary is that the mint's data can take two or three weeks to catch up with the reports. I'm not saying that's the case this time, only that it's happened several times in the last 20 years. We're going to have to wait until the report on 12th or 19th of November. That or Coin World or Numismatic News get concrete information from the mint. Right now I'm in agreement with NJCoin, I think they've all been struck & sold.
The Mint data fluctuates due to returns and bulk purchases which sometimes take time to be added in - but they've already been added here. There can be a lag when they are waiting for payments to clear. I've never seen the number sold via the website lag. And, more importantly, I've never seen 1/3 if the mintage suddenly get credited later. Are you aware of such a case?
As I've said numerous times, I don't know for sure whether it's is 50k or 75k. And anyone unwilling to acknowledge the opposite possibility is blindly obstinate.
Blindly obstinate, or firm in their conviction? Tomato, tomahto.
You've never seen 1/3 of the mintage get added back later? And I've never seen a popular release have sales cut off on Day 2 with 1/3 of the maximum mintage left unsold. One of us is going to be in for a new experience. My money is on it being you.
Just because you are uncertain does not mean I have to be. Sorry not sorry that annoys you.
And, for the record, I have "acknowledged the opposite possibility." I put the odds at exactly 0.1%. Sorry not sorry that's not enough for you.
And, actually, no. You are engaging in a little revisionist history here.
You have been pretty insistent that 49,996 in reported sales strongly implies only 50K have been made. Not simply throwing the question out for us, without "know[ing] for sure whether it's is 50K or 75K." Likely because I have been insisting the number is 75K, and you just have to be on the other side.
Not true. I raised the possibility when the first numbers came out. Everything since then has made it seem more likely. If you look back, I've always maintained the possibility of 75,000.
If you look even farther back, I offered no opinion on the secondary market despite your position there. So I clearly don't just take the other side.
Okay. Fair enough. So, where are you today on the mintage? 50-50?
Because, arguing aside, you are smart enough, and experienced enough, to realize that it would make no sense to just stop at 50K for no reason. And that anything like difficulty obtaining packaging would not be a reason to stop, because it never has been.
And that we are not in the middle of a global pandemic, and that there are no supply chain issues related to sliver planchets, etc. Doing a special ASE run for a private client would not be a reason to refuse to supply the market with a Mint product it demands, that could be sold at a significant profit.
Basically, there is no reason to even speculate they wouldn't want to product and sell all 75K of these. Even before the lottery put the exclamation point on it!
If they weren't ready, willing and able to produce and sell 75K, they didn't need to go to the effort of conducting the lottery, since they likely could have sold 50K without it. Even if not by Day 2.
And now, if 50K really is the number, the question will then become whether 1794 privys are out there, or only 1196. And my money would be on 1794, since they said that would be the number, not the maximum number.
And that will create yet other issues regarding their value, exclusivity, and the fact that dealers had a guarantee of receiving even more of them per 100 purchased than advertised. Lots of uncomfortable issues for the Mint. For absolutely no reason. Which is why I place the odds of 50K being made and sold conservatively at 0.1% Reported sales to date of 49,996 notwithstanding.
The ONLY reason at all to speculate about this is the sales report. And, rather than gravitating to what is by FAR the most obvious explanation for that, you choose to grasp at straws and allow for every theoretical possibility under the sun looking for an alternate explanation. And THEN to scold me for my near certainty that the most obvious explanation, to me if not to you, will turn out to be the correct one.
@NJCoin said:
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
Seems like a reasonable take (i.e., being misled by the Mint renders one's prediction(s) about demand value of the medal null & void).
Love this thread, btw. Enjoying it almost as much as my actual medal (which I just pulled out of the safe to inspect )
What a mystery about the final mintage! USM being very shady! [or at least sloppy/inefficient/incompetent]
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists.
Look at the spouse gold coins. They didn't Mint the 10k or 15k mag when they were selling lessing than 2000. Minting and then melting 13,000 coins would wipe our any profit.
For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins.
They also sometimes don't have either the blanks or packaging available to Mayfair the full mintage at one time.
And the misinformation king here is NJCoin who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
Evidence to the contrary is that the mint's data can take two or three weeks to catch up with the reports. I'm not saying that's the case this time, only that it's happened several times in the last 20 years. We're going to have to wait until the report on 12th or 19th of November. That or Coin World or Numismatic News get concrete information from the mint. Right now I'm in agreement with NJCoin, I think they've all been struck & sold.
The Mint data fluctuates due to returns and bulk purchases which sometimes take time to be added in - but they've already been added here. There can be a lag when they are waiting for payments to clear. I've never seen the number sold via the website lag. And, more importantly, I've never seen 1/3 if the mintage suddenly get credited later. Are you aware of such a case?
As I've said numerous times, I don't know for sure whether it's is 50k or 75k. And anyone unwilling to acknowledge the opposite possibility is blindly obstinate.
Blindly obstinate, or firm in their conviction? Tomato, tomahto.
You've never seen 1/3 of the mintage get added back later? And I've never seen a popular release have sales cut off on Day 2 with 1/3 of the maximum mintage left unsold. One of us is going to be in for a new experience. My money is on it being you.
Just because you are uncertain does not mean I have to be. Sorry not sorry that annoys you.
And, for the record, I have "acknowledged the opposite possibility." I put the odds at exactly 0.1%. Sorry not sorry that's not enough for you.
And, actually, no. You are engaging in a little revisionist history here.
You have been pretty insistent that 49,996 in reported sales strongly implies only 50K have been made. Not simply throwing the question out for us, without "know[ing] for sure whether it's is 50K or 75K." Likely because I have been insisting the number is 75K, and you just have to be on the other side.
Not true. I raised the possibility when the first numbers came out. Everything since then has made it seem more likely. If you look back, I've always maintained the possibility of 75,000.
If you look even farther back, I offered no opinion on the secondary market despite your position there. So I clearly don't just take the other side.
Okay. Fair enough. So, where are you today on the mintage? 50-50?
Because, arguing aside, you are smart enough, and experienced enough, to realize that it would make no sense to just stop at 50K for no reason. And that anything like difficulty obtaining packaging would not be a reason to stop, because it never has been.
And that we are not in the middle of a global pandemic, and that there are no supply chain issues related to sliver planchets, etc. Doing a special ASE run for a private client would not be a reason to refuse to supply the market with a Mint product it demands, that could be sold at a significant profit.
Basically, there is no reason to even speculate they wouldn't want to product and sell all 75K of these. Even before the lottery put the exclamation point on it!
If they weren't ready, willing and able to produce and sell 75K, they didn't need to go to the effort of conducting the lottery, since they likely could have sold 50K without it. Even if not by Day 2.
And now, if 50K really is the number, the question will then become whether 1794 privys are out there, or only 1196. And my money would be on 1794, since they said that would be the number, not the maximum number.
And that will create yet other issues regarding their value, exclusivity, and the fact that dealers had a guarantee of receiving even more of them per 100 purchased than advertised. Lots of uncomfortable issues for the Mint. For absolutely no reason. Which is why I place the odds of 50K being made and sold conservatively at 0.1% Reported sales to date of 49,996 notwithstanding.
The ONLY reason at all to speculate about this is the sales report. And, rather than gravitating to what is by FAR the most obvious explanation for that, you choose to grasp at straws and allow for every theoretical possibility under the sun looking for an alternate explanation. And THEN to scold me for my near certainty that the most obvious explanation, to me if not to you, will turn out to be the correct one.
@NJCoin said:
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
Seems like a reasonable take (i.e., being misled by the Mint renders one's prediction(s) about demand value of the medal null & void).
Love this thread, btw. Enjoying it almost as much as my actual medal (which I just pulled out of the safe to inspect )
What a mystery about the final mintage! USM being very shady! [or at least sloppy/inefficient/incompetent]
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists.
Look at the spouse gold coins. They didn't Mint the 10k or 15k mag when they were selling lessing than 2000. Minting and then melting 13,000 coins would wipe our any profit.
For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins.
They also sometimes don't have either the blanks or packaging available to Mayfair the full mintage at one time.
And the misinformation king here is NJCoin who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
Evidence to the contrary is that the mint's data can take two or three weeks to catch up with the reports. I'm not saying that's the case this time, only that it's happened several times in the last 20 years. We're going to have to wait until the report on 12th or 19th of November. That or Coin World or Numismatic News get concrete information from the mint. Right now I'm in agreement with NJCoin, I think they've all been struck & sold.
The Mint data fluctuates due to returns and bulk purchases which sometimes take time to be added in - but they've already been added here. There can be a lag when they are waiting for payments to clear. I've never seen the number sold via the website lag. And, more importantly, I've never seen 1/3 if the mintage suddenly get credited later. Are you aware of such a case?
As I've said numerous times, I don't know for sure whether it's is 50k or 75k. And anyone unwilling to acknowledge the opposite possibility is blindly obstinate.
Blindly obstinate, or firm in their conviction? Tomato, tomahto.
You've never seen 1/3 of the mintage get added back later? And I've never seen a popular release have sales cut off on Day 2 with 1/3 of the maximum mintage left unsold. One of us is going to be in for a new experience. My money is on it being you.
Just because you are uncertain does not mean I have to be. Sorry not sorry that annoys you.
And, for the record, I have "acknowledged the opposite possibility." I put the odds at exactly 0.1%. Sorry not sorry that's not enough for you.
And, actually, no. You are engaging in a little revisionist history here.
You have been pretty insistent that 49,996 in reported sales strongly implies only 50K have been made. Not simply throwing the question out for us, without "know[ing] for sure whether it's is 50K or 75K." Likely because I have been insisting the number is 75K, and you just have to be on the other side.
Not true. I raised the possibility when the first numbers came out. Everything since then has made it seem more likely. If you look back, I've always maintained the possibility of 75,000.
If you look even farther back, I offered no opinion on the secondary market despite your position there. So I clearly don't just take the other side.
Okay. Fair enough. So, where are you today on the mintage? 50-50?
Because, arguing aside, you are smart enough, and experienced enough, to realize that it would make no sense to just stop at 50K for no reason. And that anything like difficulty obtaining packaging would not be a reason to stop, because it never has been.
And that we are not in the middle of a global pandemic, and that there are no supply chain issues related to sliver planchets, etc. Doing a special ASE run for a private client would not be a reason to refuse to supply the market with a Mint product it demands, that could be sold at a significant profit.
Basically, there is no reason to even speculate they wouldn't want to product and sell all 75K of these. Even before the lottery put the exclamation point on it!
If they weren't ready, willing and able to produce and sell 75K, they didn't need to go to the effort of conducting the lottery, since they likely could have sold 50K without it. Even if not by Day 2.
And now, if 50K really is the number, the question will then become whether 1794 privys are out there, or only 1196. And my money would be on 1794, since they said that would be the number, not the maximum number.
And that will create yet other issues regarding their value, exclusivity, and the fact that dealers had a guarantee of receiving even more of them per 100 purchased than advertised. Lots of uncomfortable issues for the Mint. For absolutely no reason. Which is why I place the odds of 50K being made and sold conservatively at 0.1% Reported sales to date of 49,996 notwithstanding.
The ONLY reason at all to speculate about this is the sales report. And, rather than gravitating to what is by FAR the most obvious explanation for that, you choose to grasp at straws and allow for every theoretical possibility under the sun looking for an alternate explanation. And THEN to scold me for my near certainty that the most obvious explanation, to me if not to you, will turn out to be the correct one.
I'm 75/25 that they only minted 50,000.
Okay. That's less than I would have thought, based on your posts.
I think we'll have an answer by the time Baltimore rolls around. The fact that Coin World hasn't had anything to say in two weeks also leads me to believe there is nothing to say, and the 25K are just going to magically appear on the report.
Your points are good. I’m thinking along the same way. But there is no set in stone way the mint does things. They could have just as easily intended to make all 75k at one time but for some un planned event. The event might have been good unplanned reason. Or just because it was taking longer than thought and some one wanted their break or a safety meeting. It’s the US Government who knows for sure.
Leave it rest for a couple weeks come
Back and eat crow or dish it out. Time will tell
Your points are good. I’m thinking along the same way. But there is no set in stone way the mint does things. They could have just as easily intended to make all 75k at one time but for some un planned event. The event might have been good unplanned reason. Or just because it was taking longer than thought and some one wanted their break or a safety meeting. It’s the US Government who knows for sure.
Leave it rest for a couple weeks come
Back and eat crow or dish it out. Time will tell
Martin
Fair enough. That's pretty consistent with what I said in my immediately preceding post. At this point, with no new information, there is nothing new to say, one way or the other.
As you are saying, and as I said above, either the sales report will update to reflect another 20K+ in sales, or Coin World or the Mint will come out with some news, one way or the other. Likely in the next few weeks.
In the meantime, if nothing happens, the Mint will publish another sales report on Tuesday that won't be very different from what they have published the last two weeks. I will have nothing to say if that happens.
But, of course, others will, because they will think it proves them right and me wrong. At which point I will respond as I've been responding for the past 2+ weeks, conceding nothing until we get something definitive and authoritative.
I'm not the one who keeps popping in, saying the same thing slightly differently, over and over. I'm the one who keeps responding, saying the same thing, in pretty much exactly the same way, over and over.
Anyone who is tired of it can stop posting. At which point I will stop responding. In the meantime, I have no interest in being browbeaten into silence. Any innocent bystanders who have had enough are always free to put anyone on Ignore. Including me.
@Onastone said:
Does anyone have an actual flowing hair here? Love to see a pic of one.
(The actual coin, not the new medal)
I know you're joking but there's plenty of high resolution videos on the Internet. The spectacular 1794 flowing hair silver dollar is the king of all silver dollars in my mind.
Comments
Sales Counter (Headquarters) 1–202–354–6800
Thank you! I will call them Monday morning.
I can save you a dime. If they are selling for $200+ on eBay, they are not selling for $104 at the Mint Sales Counter. They are UNAVAILABLE at $104. Which is why they are selling for $200+ on eBay. 🙄
will they be for sale in baltimore? likely will get you an idk or they're not available
start with : total mintage was 75000 but sales figures show only 50k... does this mean you'll have some in baltimore? will those 25k ever be sold?
the job of the sales counter peopl is to sell. they often have little info beyond what the website has, but it wouldn't hurt to try
My friend has a table at the Whitman Coin show in Baltimore. I will ask him to visit the Mint table and report back.
Exactly. I am surprised no one else has made the effort to visit the coin stores in Washington DC and Philadelphia or at least make the phone calls.
just a thought here - but is it also possible some of the "supposedily remaining" 25,000 silver medals will be paired with gold flowing hair medals and auctioned by the US Mint?
I will be at Baltimore with an early bird badge on Nov 14. I will be at the USM table - we will hopefully have some answers then.
All the back and fourth comments and insults are starting to sound like the lies and bull on TV every day.🤔
Yes. I agree, and I have previously said that. But the number, if any, will be several hundred. Not several thousand, or several tens of thousand.
So, while interesting, that possibility sheds no light on a missing 25K. What it does do is cast doubt on the validity of only 50K being produced, as evidenced by the fact that exactly 49,996 have been reported sold.
Because, if anything at all is being held back for pairing with gold coins for auction, the production would already have to be an odd number in excess of 50K, after taking into account the 49,996 reported sold to date.
🤣🤣🤣
And therein lies the disconnect. They have been Unavailable from the Mint at $104 since 12:02 p.m. on October 16th, other than popping up for a few seconds at 7:30 a.m. on a few random days since.
There is an active market for them on eBay, at prices ranging from the mid-$100s to the mid-$200s since 12:02 p.m. on October 16th. And yet you are "surprised no one else has made the effort to visit the coin stores in Washington DC and Philadelphia or at least make the phone calls," as though no one else would have thought what you are thinking, and that any stock any Mint retail location might have had access to would not have been cleaned out by close of business on October 16th.
So feel free to make some calls to confirm it, because my batting average is terrible and I have no idea what I am talking about.
Pop Report as of November 2, 2024..................
567 more non-privy medals graded since last report on 10/29/2024...38.3% graded MS69 First Strike.
15 more privy medals graded since last report on 10/29/2024...21.1% graded MS69 First Strike
Does anyone have the total number of privies graded? CACG, PCGS, NGC & ANACS? Curious as to the current number.
So much for camaraderie. We are the untied states of America, after all.
While the privy's do not need grading to sell for big bucks, interesting < 20% have graded PCGS & NGC in 2 weeks. Doubt ANACS and ICG had many graded.
Wow! NGC has graded 133 "privies" and 115 went 70. That puts 70s at 86.5%, Non-privies are 89.5%.
Not that interesting. Grading takes time. Time to grade. Time to make it into a report.
It's only been 2 weeks. Lots more to come.
Just to use the NGC report posted above as an example, it is only reporting 10x as many Morgan and Peace Dollars as FH, and that's after 3 months, not 2 weeks. And with their sales being more than 2x or 3x higher, depending on whether you believe 50K or 75K for the FH.
Meaning the grading percent for FH after 2 weeks is not aberrationally low, and lots more will make it into grading reports in the next few weeks.
The CACG pop report follows.
Link: https://www.cacgrading.com/pop/graded/240115
Looks like ANACS requires you to register for an account in order to review their pop report. I have not done this, so I cannot post it. Perhaps someone else can.
ANACS:
No privys apparently
theother coin sales stores are contractors
Seems like a reasonable take (i.e., being misled by the Mint renders one's prediction(s) about demand value of the medal null & void).
Love this thread, btw. Enjoying it almost as much as my actual medal (which I just pulled out of the safe to inspect
)
What a mystery about the final mintage! USM being very shady! [or at least sloppy/inefficient/incompetent]
Maximum mintage is not the mintage. When they state 500,000 maximum mintage for a proof set, they don't Mint 500,000 proof sets and stick them in a warehouse. They Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists.
Look at the spouse gold coins. They didn't Mint the 10k or 15k mag when they were selling lessing than 2000. Minting and then melting 13,000 coins would wipe our any profit.
For limited editions, they often Mint the full number. However, they don't always. But even if they do, sometimes remainders are destroyed. The final mintages of many (most?) Mint products ends up at less than the maximum, for example, the spouse coins.
They also sometimes don't have either the blanks or packaging available to Mayfair the full mintage at one time.
And the misinformation king here is NJ who continues to loudly insist that all 75,000 were both made and sold despite evidence to the contrary.
I understand what you're saying, that a specified "Mintage Limit" is just the upper parameter for what could be produced.
It's just interesting and compelling to wonder /if/how the Mint got this wrong, or if they're not even aware that the've created confusion and concerns of corruption, or if they're actually very corrupt and this was the plan all along, etc,, etc.
I like NJ's stridency, btw. He keeps my excitement up! lol
"Corruption"? Minting 50,000 out of a maximum 75k is hardly corrupt. It benefits then in no way whatsoever.
Sure it's not. When they say any amount at all, it's totally meaningless. 🤣
You then correctly follow up by saying "[t]hey Mint the number they are sure that will sell and Mint more if demand exists." That didn't happen here.
The number is 75K, not 500K. They engineered a lottery to make sure they sold. They sold out in 2 minutes once the HHL was lifted. And they never put them on Back Order.
It's not First Spouse coin. And it's a fiction to say that they would not have happily sold every last one authorized to be minted if there was demand. So please stop distracting with examples that you know full well are irrelevant, just to make a point.
Not making something they know they can't sell, since they are unable to sell what they have already made, is very different from cutting off sales after making 67% of the maximum when what they have made sells out in 24 hours and 2 minutes. You know this.
If blanks were not available, there would be an ASE shortage. There is not. If packaging was unavailable, they would do what they have done every single time in the past.
They would announce that through their website, and/or the press, apologize for the resulting delivery delay, and keep taking orders on a Back Order basis. You know full well they would not simply abandon 25K in potential sales, at a $70 premium to $34 silver, and move on to the next big thing.
Never happened before. Isn't happening now. Trust me, the car keys are somewhere in the house. They will turn up. 😀
I am not spreading misinformation. And am not wrong about anything, until proven otherwise. When I turn out to be right, it won't be the first time there was a large adjustment to a previously reported sales figure. And you know that.
So just keep on posting. It will only make the ultimate resolution that much sweeter for me. 😀
Correct. Which is why it didn't happen!!! They were sold. Because, if they weren't sold, they would never have stopped taking orders, whether or not they were already minted.
It's a reporting mistake that will eventually be fixed. Not corruption. Because, as you said, they have no incentive. Especially not with reporting being so transparent.
Thank you for the kind words. The stridency is just a reaction to the reaction to me.
It's not a huge conspiracy. It's an obvious mistake that people are getting all worked up over because they have no patience, and very limited intermediate short term memory.
Issues with the Mint's weekly sales report are not uncommon. No one usually pays attention, because the issues don't ordinarily involve such a large percent of the maximum mintage, on something that goes unavailable for sale almost immediately. Many now apparently believe the large percent means this time is different.
I'm not buying that. I just happen to think the large percent is the result of a large number from one particular source (bulk sales) not finding their way into the report. It will ultimately resolve itself, because it always does.
ABPP sales missed the first report, even though they were the first sales made. Literally weeks before any sales were made to the public. That mistake was fixed in Week 2, and no one batted an eye. And yet, no one other than me seems to think it is more likely than not that the 25K is also floating around somewhere, just waiting to be reflected in a subsequent sales report update.
In the meantime, imaginations are running wild. And I, with my certainty (lack of humility, arrogance, etc.), am upsetting people by interfering with their desire to imagine.
@SilverPlatinum You should change the title of your thread to "How to beat a dead horse."
__
Just a quick question. Why are you not wrong until proven wrong, but everyone else is wrong because you say they're wrong?
Not sure about dead horses, but this medal is getting serious mileage.
The rims are so high and sharp though.
As to mintage, I will wait on the Red Book.
Evidence to the contrary is that the mint's data can take two or three weeks to catch up with the reports. I'm not saying that's the case this time, only that it's happened several times in the last 20 years. We're going to have to wait until the report on 12th or 19th of November. That or Coin World or Numismatic News get concrete information from the mint. Right now I'm in agreement with NJCoin, I think they've all been struck & sold.
The Mint data fluctuates due to returns and bulk purchases which sometimes take time to be added in - but they've already been added here. There can be a lag when they are waiting for payments to clear. I've never seen the number sold via the website lag. And, more importantly, I've never seen 1/3 if the mintage suddenly get credited later. Are you aware of such a case?
As I've said numerous times, I don't know for sure whether it's is 50k or 75k. And anyone unwilling to acknowledge the opposite possibility is blindly obstinate.
Excellent question, and I don't really have a good answer. We are all right until someone is proven wrong.
So I guess what I don't appreciate is being scolded for my conviction and refusal to back down, just because some are annoyed with my certainty, and because a sales report two weeks after release says something different to them than to me.
I have not asked anyone to modify or hedge their opinion, and have said on more than one occasion that that I will publicly apologize if I turn out to be wrong. Yet I have not seen a single person giving me a hard time reciprocate and say they will do the same.
So I guess a difference is, while we are all right until proven otherwise, I am not asking anyone at this point in time to bend a knee and move off their position, while there is a post at least once per day expressing annoyance with my conviction, and blatantly saying that I am wrong, because the most recent sales report says so, with no definitive explanation from any authoritative source regarding what happened to the missing 25K.
I'm waiting for that, and can't control for the fact that others have already declared the game over. Or, at least, are insisting on a concession from me before the game is over.
Blindly obstinate, or firm in their conviction? Tomato, tomahto.
You've never seen 1/3 of the mintage get added back later? And I've never seen a popular release have sales cut off on Day 2 with 1/3 of the maximum mintage left unsold. One of us is going to be in for a new experience. My money is on it being you.
Just because you are uncertain does not mean I have to be. Sorry not sorry that annoys you.
And, for the record, I have "acknowledged the opposite possibility." I put the odds at exactly 0.1%. Sorry not sorry that's not enough for you.
And, actually, no. You are engaging in a little revisionist history here.
You have been pretty insistent that 49,996 in reported sales strongly implies only 50K have been made. Not simply throwing the question out for us, without "know[ing] for sure whether it's is 50K or 75K." Likely because I have been insisting the number is 75K, and you just have to be on the other side.
Significant abrasion on the cheek as well. You might have the apple cheek variety.
Not true. I raised the possibility when the first numbers came out. Everything since then has made it seem more likely. If you look back, I've always maintained the possibility of 75,000.
If you look even farther back, I offered no opinion on the secondary market despite your position there. So I clearly don't just take the other side.
Okay. Fair enough. So, where are you today on the mintage? 50-50?
Because, arguing aside, you are smart enough, and experienced enough, to realize that it would make no sense to just stop at 50K for no reason. And that anything like difficulty obtaining packaging would not be a reason to stop, because it never has been.
And that we are not in the middle of a global pandemic, and that there are no supply chain issues related to sliver planchets, etc. Doing a special ASE run for a private client would not be a reason to refuse to supply the market with a Mint product it demands, that could be sold at a significant profit.
Basically, there is no reason to even speculate they wouldn't want to product and sell all 75K of these. Even before the lottery put the exclamation point on it!
If they weren't ready, willing and able to produce and sell 75K, they didn't need to go to the effort of conducting the lottery, since they likely could have sold 50K without it. Even if not by Day 2.
And now, if 50K really is the number, the question will then become whether 1794 privys are out there, or only 1196. And my money would be on 1794, since they said that would be the number, not the maximum number.
And that will create yet other issues regarding their value, exclusivity, and the fact that dealers had a guarantee of receiving even more of them per 100 purchased than advertised. Lots of uncomfortable issues for the Mint. For absolutely no reason. Which is why I place the odds of 50K being made and sold conservatively at 0.1% Reported sales to date of 49,996 notwithstanding.
The ONLY reason at all to speculate about this is the sales report. And, rather than gravitating to what is by FAR the most obvious explanation for that, you choose to grasp at straws and allow for every theoretical possibility under the sun looking for an alternate explanation. And THEN to scold me for my near certainty that the most obvious explanation, to me if not to you, will turn out to be the correct one.
I'm 75/25 that they only minted 50,000.
Okay. That's less than I would have thought, based on your posts.
I think we'll have an answer by the time Baltimore rolls around. The fact that Coin World hasn't had anything to say in two weeks also leads me to believe there is nothing to say, and the 25K are just going to magically appear on the report.
@NJCoin
Your points are good. I’m thinking along the same way. But there is no set in stone way the mint does things. They could have just as easily intended to make all 75k at one time but for some un planned event. The event might have been good unplanned reason. Or just because it was taking longer than thought and some one wanted their break or a safety meeting. It’s the US Government who knows for sure.
Leave it rest for a couple weeks come
Back and eat crow or dish it out. Time will tell
Martin
I'm not sure I learned anything new in the last 140 posts
Fair enough. That's pretty consistent with what I said in my immediately preceding post. At this point, with no new information, there is nothing new to say, one way or the other.
As you are saying, and as I said above, either the sales report will update to reflect another 20K+ in sales, or Coin World or the Mint will come out with some news, one way or the other. Likely in the next few weeks.
In the meantime, if nothing happens, the Mint will publish another sales report on Tuesday that won't be very different from what they have published the last two weeks. I will have nothing to say if that happens.
But, of course, others will, because they will think it proves them right and me wrong. At which point I will respond as I've been responding for the past 2+ weeks, conceding nothing until we get something definitive and authoritative.
I'm not the one who keeps popping in, saying the same thing slightly differently, over and over. I'm the one who keeps responding, saying the same thing, in pretty much exactly the same way, over and over.
Anyone who is tired of it can stop posting. At which point I will stop responding. In the meantime, I have no interest in being browbeaten into silence. Any innocent bystanders who have had enough are always free to put anyone on Ignore. Including me.
Don't hold your breath waiting for the missing 25,000 medals. They were melted down and poured into 312 5 lb bars this weekend.
The mint may have taken those bars and beat them into a dead horse.😊
Does anyone have an actual flowing hair here? Love to see a pic of one.
(The actual coin, not the new medal)
I know you're joking but there's plenty of high resolution videos on the Internet. The spectacular 1794 flowing hair silver dollar is the king of all silver dollars in my mind.
I have a 1795 Half currently at PCGS.
youtube.com
The 24k gold piece, official video.