anyone going to baltimore, call the us mint headquarters sales counter before you go and ask them to find out when the rest will be sold because lots of baltimore people want to know
@MsMorrisine said:
anyone going to baltimore, call the us mint headquarters sales counter before you go and ask them to find out when the rest will be sold because lots of baltimore people want to know
My thinking against this being the plan is that the unstruck quantity is 1/3 of the mintage limit. That's a lot to withhold from the market to sell at a show. I would expect the quantity saved for a show to be 5k or 10k max.
@Bullsitter said:
Raw ones hit $250 last night.....
.
Just as NJ predicted...oh, wait...
Yeah, well, apparently some are speculating that there are 25K less floating around than I am convinced is the case.
Again, it's only been two weeks. Try to control yourself for another two weeks or so before engaging fully in the victory dance.
Because, sure, if the mintage turns out to be 50K rather than 75K, that is information I did not have at the time, and these will be worth significantly more than I originally thought. And good folks like @WQuarterFreddie and @coiner will be upset because they will have flipped prematurely without having had the benefit of the transparency they are entitled to regarding the actual mintage. Since, if the Mint ends up selling 50K when they advertised that 75K lottery tickets were going to be available for distribution, that is information that EVERYONE would have found relevant when making buying and selling decisions.
That said, you'll have to excuse me, but I am just not there yet. And, as someone who is generally negative on anything coming out of the Mint at a significant premium, it's a little surprising to see you so enthusiastic about these. Makes me think everything you have to say is more about me than the medals.
I just hope you are as prolific with your posts when the missing 25K turn up.
the Baltimore show show tell us something about the fate of another 25k silver medals. if there is product available, i would assume it would be smaller quantities and sales would be limited to smaller quantities. I cant see more than a qty of 5,000 being available at a show.
If any.
@Bullsitter said:
Raw ones hit $250 last night.....
.
Just as NJ predicted...oh, wait...
Yeah, well, apparently some are speculating that there are 25K less floating around than I am convinced is the case.
Again, it's only been two weeks. Try to control yourself for another two weeks or so before engaging fully in the victory dance.
Because, sure, if the mintage turns out to be 50K rather than 75K, that is information I did not have at the time, and these will be worth significantly more than I originally thought. And good folks like @WQuarterFreddie will be upset because they will have flipped prematurely without having had the benefit of the transparency they are entitled to regarding the actual mintage. Since, if the Mint ends up selling 50K when they advertised that 75K lottery tickets were going to be available for distribution, that is information that EVERYONE would have found relevant when making buying and selling decisions.
That said, you'll have to excuse me, but I am just not there yet. And, as someone who is generally negative on anything coming out of the Mint at a significant premium, it's a little surprising to see you so enthusiastic about these. Makes me think everything you have to say is more about me than the medals.
I just hope you are as prolific with your posts when the missing 25K turn up.
So, you're saying that being wrong twice (value and mintage) makes you correct? 😁
@Bullsitter said:
Raw ones hit $250 last night.....
.
Just as NJ predicted...oh, wait...
Yeah, well, apparently some are speculating that there are 25K less floating around than I am convinced is the case.
Again, it's only been two weeks. Try to control yourself for another two weeks or so before engaging fully in the victory dance.
Because, sure, if the mintage turns out to be 50K rather than 75K, that is information I did not have at the time, and these will be worth significantly more than I originally thought. And good folks like @WQuarterFreddie will be upset because they will have flipped prematurely without having had the benefit of the transparency they are entitled to regarding the actual mintage. Since, if the Mint ends up selling 50K when they advertised that 75K lottery tickets were going to be available for distribution, that is information that EVERYONE would have found relevant when making buying and selling decisions.
That said, you'll have to excuse me, but I am just not there yet. And, as someone who is generally negative on anything coming out of the Mint at a significant premium, it's a little surprising to see you so enthusiastic about these. Makes me think everything you have to say is more about me than the medals.
I just hope you are as prolific with your posts when the missing 25K turn up.
So, you're saying that being wrong twice (value and mintage) makes you correct? 😁
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
But, we're not there yet. I do not believe the Mint would have any reason to intentionally mislead anyone, and I don't believe it happened. I think you are jumping the gun due to a glitch at the Mint in reporting sales, and that I was not wrong at all. Other than, apparently, temporarily, since I had no way to see the glitch in advance.
Whatever. How many did you buy and keep, in anticipation of the actual mintage only being 2/3 of the announced maximum? If the answer is zero, you too were wrong, at least to date, although you did not put yourself out publicly like I did. 😁
@coiner said:
and IF there are any available at the show, I can see the reason for NO announcement before hand.....to limit lines....
Yes. "If there are any available," "NO announcement," and " limit lines." Count on it.
Because that's what they do -- play games to benefit people who happened to be at a show. "If" there are 25K available, they will go onto the beautiful new website they have spent years and gobs of money improving, to the point that it can move unlimited amounts of product without crashing.
If they happen to become widely available, without privys, they will be available everywhere, including the show, and there will be no sell out and no lines anywhere. And, of course, no reason for an announcement. Not happening.
They are gone, gone, gone. If they weren't, they'd pop up at 7:30 a.m., the reference to any remaining stock having privys would be removed from the website, to avoid confusion and misrepresentation, because those 1794 are CERTAINLY long gone, even if they did short produce the regular medals for some reason, and everyone would be able to buy as many as they want.
My prediction: If 25K more medals do show up, they'll include privies. (Assuming that there isn't some current data showing that all privies are already in the wild.)
@M4Madness said:
My prediction: If 25K more medals do show up, they'll include privies. (Assuming that there isn't some current data showing that all privies are already in the wild.)
There will NEVER be definitive data regarding the privys, because they were supposedly seeded randomly into the population, so will not be tracked and reported separately by the Mint. Given that they were the prize, and given there were only ever going to be 1794 of them, absolutely no reason for the Mint to have ever held them back.
As a result, I think there is a 0.1% chance the 25K have not already been produced and sold, and a 0.00000001% chance all the privys have not already been produced and sold.
@Bullsitter said:
Raw ones hit $250 last night.....
.
Just as NJ predicted...oh, wait...
Yeah, well, apparently some are speculating that there are 25K less floating around than I am convinced is the case.
Again, it's only been two weeks. Try to control yourself for another two weeks or so before engaging fully in the victory dance.
Because, sure, if the mintage turns out to be 50K rather than 75K, that is information I did not have at the time, and these will be worth significantly more than I originally thought. And good folks like @WQuarterFreddie will be upset because they will have flipped prematurely without having had the benefit of the transparency they are entitled to regarding the actual mintage. Since, if the Mint ends up selling 50K when they advertised that 75K lottery tickets were going to be available for distribution, that is information that EVERYONE would have found relevant when making buying and selling decisions.
That said, you'll have to excuse me, but I am just not there yet. And, as someone who is generally negative on anything coming out of the Mint at a significant premium, it's a little surprising to see you so enthusiastic about these. Makes me think everything you have to say is more about me than the medals.
I just hope you are as prolific with your posts when the missing 25K turn up.
So, you're saying that being wrong twice (value and mintage) makes you correct? 😁
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
But, we're not there yet. I do not believe the Mint would have any reason to intentionally mislead anyone, and I don't believe it happened. I think you are jumping the gun due to a glitch at the Mint in reporting sales, and that I was not wrong at all. Other than, apparently, temporarily, since I had no way to see the glitch in advance.
Whatever. How many did you buy and keep, in anticipation of the actual mintage only being 2/3 of the announced maximum? If the answer is zero, you too were wrong, at least to date, although you did not put yourself out publicly like I did. 😁
Could you point out which of your predictions for price would be different for 50k vs 75k? Your argument was $100 ounce of silver not that 75k was 25k too many.
@Bullsitter said:
Raw ones hit $250 last night.....
.
Just as NJ predicted...oh, wait...
Yeah, well, apparently some are speculating that there are 25K less floating around than I am convinced is the case.
Again, it's only been two weeks. Try to control yourself for another two weeks or so before engaging fully in the victory dance.
Because, sure, if the mintage turns out to be 50K rather than 75K, that is information I did not have at the time, and these will be worth significantly more than I originally thought. And good folks like @WQuarterFreddie and @coiner will be upset because they will have flipped prematurely without having had the benefit of the transparency they are entitled to regarding the actual mintage. Since, if the Mint ends up selling 50K when they advertised that 75K lottery tickets were going to be available for distribution, that is information that EVERYONE would have found relevant when making buying and selling decisions.
That said, you'll have to excuse me, but I am just not there yet. And, as someone who is generally negative on anything coming out of the Mint at a significant premium, it's a little surprising to see you so enthusiastic about these. Makes me think everything you have to say is more about me than the medals.
I just hope you are as prolific with your posts when the missing 25K turn up.
Wrong again. I sold mine to recover my cost of the medal NOT to flip it to make money.
Sold it to another member on BST with the intention of getting it in the hands of a someone who wanted one. What they do with it is their business and I am happy for them if the value increases 10 fold.
Once again your arrogance and pompous attitude have misled you.🙄
@M4Madness said:
My prediction: If 25K more medals do show up, they'll include privies. (Assuming that there isn't some current data showing that all privies are already in the wild.)
There will NEVER be definitive data regarding the privys, because they were supposedly seeded randomly into the population, so will not be tracked and reported separately by the Mint. Given that they were the prize, and given there were only ever going to be 1794 of them, absolutely no reason for the Mint to have ever held them back.
As a result, I think there is a 0.1% chance the 25K have not already been produced and sold, and a 0.00000001% chance all the privys have not already been produced and sold.
So you're saying there is a 99.9% chance that the Mint database is inaccurate.
They simply state we will not make more that 75k, This is the info that we really only know. They can always make less. Isn't most all mintages not the exact number, due to returns/lack of sale/demand etc.
Most likely they've misjudged the demand again and error on the side of caution.
@M4Madness said:
My prediction: If 25K more medals do show up, they'll include privies. (Assuming that there isn't some current data showing that all privies are already in the wild.)
There will NEVER be definitive data regarding the privys, because they were supposedly seeded randomly into the population, so will not be tracked and reported separately by the Mint. Given that they were the prize, and given there were only ever going to be 1794 of them, absolutely no reason for the Mint to have ever held them back.
As a result, I think there is a 0.1% chance the 25K have not already been produced and sold, and a 0.00000001% chance all the privys have not already been produced and sold.
So you're saying there is a 99.9% chance that the Mint database is inaccurate.
EXACTLY. Not because there is anything inherently wrong with the database. But because garbage in always results in garbage out, and no other possible conspiracy explanation for the missing 25K makes any real sense.
So, yeah, 99.99% the reported sales figure is wrong. I'm more convinced of this the more I think about it.
While 50K is a very shiny round number to focus on, consider for a minute that pretty much all other sellouts, even those without massive returns, don't get THAT close (4?) to the maximum mintage on a Mint sales report only two weeks after the on sale date.
Then consider their cryptic press release about an auction for the gold coins. People are absolutely salivating over the possibility of silver medals making a cameo appearance in Baltimore to join their gold cousins, even though they are unavailable elsewhere, and that would be patently unfair to the tax paying public who did not make it to Baltimore.
MUCH more likely, if there was any hold back at all, to make a later appearance with gold coins, it would be as part of a Mint auction as was done with Dawn and Dusk in 2022. That hold back is far more likely, but would be hundreds of medals, not thousands, or tens of thousands.
But any amount at all would put us over 50K, so now what? They intentionally did a short run of 50,400? Or 51,794? Or 75K are gone, and just not reported. Yet. For whatever reason. You know what I think! 99.99%. 😀
@Bullsitter said:
Raw ones hit $250 last night.....
.
Just as NJ predicted...oh, wait...
Yeah, well, apparently some are speculating that there are 25K less floating around than I am convinced is the case.
Again, it's only been two weeks. Try to control yourself for another two weeks or so before engaging fully in the victory dance.
Because, sure, if the mintage turns out to be 50K rather than 75K, that is information I did not have at the time, and these will be worth significantly more than I originally thought. And good folks like @WQuarterFreddie will be upset because they will have flipped prematurely without having had the benefit of the transparency they are entitled to regarding the actual mintage. Since, if the Mint ends up selling 50K when they advertised that 75K lottery tickets were going to be available for distribution, that is information that EVERYONE would have found relevant when making buying and selling decisions.
That said, you'll have to excuse me, but I am just not there yet. And, as someone who is generally negative on anything coming out of the Mint at a significant premium, it's a little surprising to see you so enthusiastic about these. Makes me think everything you have to say is more about me than the medals.
I just hope you are as prolific with your posts when the missing 25K turn up.
So, you're saying that being wrong twice (value and mintage) makes you correct? 😁
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
But, we're not there yet. I do not believe the Mint would have any reason to intentionally mislead anyone, and I don't believe it happened. I think you are jumping the gun due to a glitch at the Mint in reporting sales, and that I was not wrong at all. Other than, apparently, temporarily, since I had no way to see the glitch in advance.
Whatever. How many did you buy and keep, in anticipation of the actual mintage only being 2/3 of the announced maximum? If the answer is zero, you too were wrong, at least to date, although you did not put yourself out publicly like I did. 😁
Could you point out which of your predictions for price would be different for 50k vs 75k? Your argument was $100 ounce of silver not that 75k was 25k too many.
Correct. There was no specific prediction, because there was no discussion of 75K not selling out with the lottery. You certainly never heard me say $104 was too much for a medal with a mintage of 1794!
So, let's just agree that, whatever I, or anyone else, would think about a premium with a mintage of 75K, the premium would be more justified if the mintage was reduced to 50K.
You know better, so I'm not sure why you are going there. But I have made multiple comments in the gold thread about the two variables into value for any modern Mint product being price and mintage.
275K was the right number for Morgan and Peace Dollars at $76 and $80. Not so much at $91 and $95. And I called that, correctly, weeks before they went on sale and sat unsold.
And now here we are, 3 months after release. 70s go for no meaningful premium, and raw are being sold, on TV of all places, below the original Mint price.
As a result, I have been pooping all over the gold. Not because they won't be lovely. Or because I think they should be sold as bullion, as you seemingly believe most Mint issues should. But because, based on recent sales of everything similar, based on maximum mintages for recent American Liberty High Relief gold, based on all time high pricing for gold, and based on the outrageous premiums they now seek for similar products, that 17,500 is too high a mintage to generate a sell out, or to generate any meaningful secondary market interest.
Change the 17,500 to 12,500, and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY. Change the $1,000 premium to $500 and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY. Change $2,700 gold to $1,500 gold, and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY.
So don't act shocked that I would have had a different opinion about a 50K medal than a 75K one, just because it wasn't contemplated, and therefore not discussed. Why are you arguing with me, when you are the one usually saying all of this is nothing more than overpriced bullion?
@Bullsitter said:
Raw ones hit $250 last night.....
.
Just as NJ predicted...oh, wait...
Yeah, well, apparently some are speculating that there are 25K less floating around than I am convinced is the case.
Again, it's only been two weeks. Try to control yourself for another two weeks or so before engaging fully in the victory dance.
Because, sure, if the mintage turns out to be 50K rather than 75K, that is information I did not have at the time, and these will be worth significantly more than I originally thought. And good folks like @WQuarterFreddie will be upset because they will have flipped prematurely without having had the benefit of the transparency they are entitled to regarding the actual mintage. Since, if the Mint ends up selling 50K when they advertised that 75K lottery tickets were going to be available for distribution, that is information that EVERYONE would have found relevant when making buying and selling decisions.
That said, you'll have to excuse me, but I am just not there yet. And, as someone who is generally negative on anything coming out of the Mint at a significant premium, it's a little surprising to see you so enthusiastic about these. Makes me think everything you have to say is more about me than the medals.
I just hope you are as prolific with your posts when the missing 25K turn up.
So, you're saying that being wrong twice (value and mintage) makes you correct? 😁
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
But, we're not there yet. I do not believe the Mint would have any reason to intentionally mislead anyone, and I don't believe it happened. I think you are jumping the gun due to a glitch at the Mint in reporting sales, and that I was not wrong at all. Other than, apparently, temporarily, since I had no way to see the glitch in advance.
Whatever. How many did you buy and keep, in anticipation of the actual mintage only being 2/3 of the announced maximum? If the answer is zero, you too were wrong, at least to date, although you did not put yourself out publicly like I did. 😁
Could you point out which of your predictions for price would be different for 50k vs 75k? Your argument was $100 ounce of silver not that 75k was 25k too many.
Correct. There was no specific prediction, because there was no discussion of 75K not selling out with the lottery. You certainly never heard me say $104 was too much for a medal with a mintage of 1794!
So, let's just agree that, whatever I, or anyone else, would think about a premium with a mintage of 75K, the premium would be more justified if the mintage was reduced to 50K.
You know better, so I'm not sure why you are going there. But I have made multiple comments in the gold thread about the two variables into value for any modern Mint product being price and mintage.
275K was the right number for Morgan and Peace Dollars at $76 and $80. Not so much at $91 and $95. And I called that, correctly, weeks before they went on sale and sat unsold.
And now here we are, 3 months after release. 70s go for no meaningful premium, and raw are being sold on TV of all places, below the original Mint price.
As a result, I have been pooping all over the gold. Not because they won't be lovely. And because they should be sold as bullion, as you seemingly believe most Mint issues should. But because, based on recent sales of everything similar, based on maximum mintages for recent American Liberty High Relief gold, based on all time high pricing for gold, and based on the outrageous premiums they now seek for similar products, that 17,500 is too high a mintage to generate a sell out, or to generate any meaningful secondary market interest.
Change the 17,500 to 12,500, and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY. Change the $1,000 premium to $500 and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY. Change $2,700 gold to $1,500 gold, and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY.
So don't act shocked that I would have had a different opinion about a 50K medal than a 75K one, just because it wasn't contemplated, and therefore not discussed. Which isn't to say these would now be a home run with a 50K mintage and a $200+ price tag.
But it would be a shock to the market, given that 75K was announced and expected. And, for the record, no, I would not have been calling for them to settle below issue price if the mintage was announced at 50K. $100-150 would be, in my opinion, the right value, raw, for something like this at that mintage.
Again, pick at me and everything I post all you want, but $500 is irrational for a sealed package at current prices for privys and non-privys, given the odds, and $250 is high for the non-privy. But people might be reacting to the fact that 25K might never be made, and that might be causing more irrational behavior.
Why are you arguing with me, when you are the one usually saying all of this is nothing more than overpriced bullion?
It's not so much picking at you as asking you to find some humility. You've been wrong or probably wrong (mintage) on every point you've made in this thread but you just keep on pounding on the same point. I actually laugh out loud.
75k or 50k, you were wrong on the price as they continue to sell at $200+ even though expectations by buyers are that 75,000 are released.
And exactly 25,000 unaccounted for 2 weeks after release doesn't make you willing to hedge a little? You still claim to be 99.99% sure that it is more likely they can't count than that they did less than the maximum mintage... which they've done before. Instead, they lost exactly 25,000 sales in the number, which has never happened before. Are you sure 51% isn't a better number?
They simply state we will not make more that 75k, This is the info that we really only know. They can always make less. Isn't most all mintages not the exact number, due to returns/lack of sale/demand etc.
Most likely they've misjudged the demand again and error on the side of caution.
Thanks, but that's just not how it works. They make a lot of money selling $34 silver planchets for $104. With or without a privy mark. They are a federal agency, and return profits to the US Treasury. If they are allowed to sell 75K, of anything, and they can sell 75K, of anything, they sell 75K, of anything.
If they misjudge demand, which would NEVER happen here due to the privy lottery, they place the item on Back Order, continue taking orders, and make more. They don't just throw up their hands, say "oops, error on the side of caution," and leave $2.6 million sitting on the table. Just doesn't happen.
@Bullsitter said:
Raw ones hit $250 last night.....
.
Just as NJ predicted...oh, wait...
Yeah, well, apparently some are speculating that there are 25K less floating around than I am convinced is the case.
Again, it's only been two weeks. Try to control yourself for another two weeks or so before engaging fully in the victory dance.
Because, sure, if the mintage turns out to be 50K rather than 75K, that is information I did not have at the time, and these will be worth significantly more than I originally thought. And good folks like @WQuarterFreddie will be upset because they will have flipped prematurely without having had the benefit of the transparency they are entitled to regarding the actual mintage. Since, if the Mint ends up selling 50K when they advertised that 75K lottery tickets were going to be available for distribution, that is information that EVERYONE would have found relevant when making buying and selling decisions.
That said, you'll have to excuse me, but I am just not there yet. And, as someone who is generally negative on anything coming out of the Mint at a significant premium, it's a little surprising to see you so enthusiastic about these. Makes me think everything you have to say is more about me than the medals.
I just hope you are as prolific with your posts when the missing 25K turn up.
So, you're saying that being wrong twice (value and mintage) makes you correct? 😁
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
You were not misled. It was very clearly indicated to be a mintage limit, not the actual mintage. Someone made an ASSumption about the mintage.
@Bullsitter said:
Raw ones hit $250 last night.....
.
Just as NJ predicted...oh, wait...
Yeah, well, apparently some are speculating that there are 25K less floating around than I am convinced is the case.
Again, it's only been two weeks. Try to control yourself for another two weeks or so before engaging fully in the victory dance.
Because, sure, if the mintage turns out to be 50K rather than 75K, that is information I did not have at the time, and these will be worth significantly more than I originally thought. And good folks like @WQuarterFreddie will be upset because they will have flipped prematurely without having had the benefit of the transparency they are entitled to regarding the actual mintage. Since, if the Mint ends up selling 50K when they advertised that 75K lottery tickets were going to be available for distribution, that is information that EVERYONE would have found relevant when making buying and selling decisions.
That said, you'll have to excuse me, but I am just not there yet. And, as someone who is generally negative on anything coming out of the Mint at a significant premium, it's a little surprising to see you so enthusiastic about these. Makes me think everything you have to say is more about me than the medals.
I just hope you are as prolific with your posts when the missing 25K turn up.
So, you're saying that being wrong twice (value and mintage) makes you correct? 😁
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
But, we're not there yet. I do not believe the Mint would have any reason to intentionally mislead anyone, and I don't believe it happened. I think you are jumping the gun due to a glitch at the Mint in reporting sales, and that I was not wrong at all. Other than, apparently, temporarily, since I had no way to see the glitch in advance.
Whatever. How many did you buy and keep, in anticipation of the actual mintage only being 2/3 of the announced maximum? If the answer is zero, you too were wrong, at least to date, although you did not put yourself out publicly like I did. 😁
Could you point out which of your predictions for price would be different for 50k vs 75k? Your argument was $100 ounce of silver not that 75k was 25k too many.
Correct. There was no specific prediction, because there was no discussion of 75K not selling out with the lottery. You certainly never heard me say $104 was too much for a medal with a mintage of 1794!
So, let's just agree that, whatever I, or anyone else, would think about a premium with a mintage of 75K, the premium would be more justified if the mintage was reduced to 50K.
You know better, so I'm not sure why you are going there. But I have made multiple comments in the gold thread about the two variables into value for any modern Mint product being price and mintage.
275K was the right number for Morgan and Peace Dollars at $76 and $80. Not so much at $91 and $95. And I called that, correctly, weeks before they went on sale and sat unsold.
And now here we are, 3 months after release. 70s go for no meaningful premium, and raw are being sold on TV of all places, below the original Mint price.
As a result, I have been pooping all over the gold. Not because they won't be lovely. And because they should be sold as bullion, as you seemingly believe most Mint issues should. But because, based on recent sales of everything similar, based on maximum mintages for recent American Liberty High Relief gold, based on all time high pricing for gold, and based on the outrageous premiums they now seek for similar products, that 17,500 is too high a mintage to generate a sell out, or to generate any meaningful secondary market interest.
Change the 17,500 to 12,500, and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY. Change the $1,000 premium to $500 and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY. Change $2,700 gold to $1,500 gold, and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY.
So don't act shocked that I would have had a different opinion about a 50K medal than a 75K one, just because it wasn't contemplated, and therefore not discussed. Which isn't to say these would now be a home run with a 50K mintage and a $200+ price tag.
But it would be a shock to the market, given that 75K was announced and expected. And, for the record, no, I would not have been calling for them to settle below issue price if the mintage was announced at 50K. $100-150 would be, in my opinion, the right value, raw, for something like this at that mintage.
Again, pick at me and everything I post all you want, but $500 is irrational for a sealed package at current prices for privys and non-privys, given the odds, and $250 is high for the non-privy. But people might be reacting to the fact that 25K might never be made, and that might be causing more irrational behavior.
Why are you arguing with me, when you are the one usually saying all of this is nothing more than overpriced bullion?
It's not so much picking at you as asking you to find some humility. You've been wrong or probably wrong (mintage) on every point you've made in this thread but you just keep on pounding on the same point. I actually laugh out loud.
75k or 50k, you were wrong on the price as they continue to sell at $200+ even though expectations by buyers are that 75,000 are released.
And exactly 25,000 unaccounted for 2 weeks after release doesn't make you willing to hedge a little? You still claim to be 99.99% sure that it is more likely they can't count than that they did less than the maximum mintage... which they've done before. Instead, they lost exactly 25,000 sales in the number, which has never happened before. Are you sure 51% isn't a better number?
Sorry for my level of humility not satisfying your standards, but happy to have been able to give you a chuckle. And yes, I did concede in a post a few days ago that the nice round number does indeed open my eyes to a possibility I hadn't considered before.
That said, no, it still seems way too preposterous to manifest, when sales reporting issues have been frequent and widespread in the past. The possibility of the red Add to Bag button appearing until another 25K are sold, without privys, and the accompanying blow back that would certainly ensue if that was not adequately disclosed ahead of time, is truly too much for me to contemplate.
You seem to ignore anything I say that doesn't fit your narrative. When is the last time ANYTHING came within 4 of a maximum mintage two weeks after release? What about what is certainly a hold back for their auction?
So, sure 49,996 is indeed tantalizingly close to 50K, which would be quite a feat if the maximum mintage was actually announced at 50K. But, given that the announced number was 75K, and given that they have routinely had significant, inexplicable adjustments to their sales numbers, both up and down, no I'm not ready to bend the knee two weeks out because you happen to find my sticking to my guns to be arrogant.
So, sure, I'll bend the knee and give you a well deserved public apology if Coin World publishes an article in the next few weeks reporting that, for whatever reason, the final mintage for these will be in the low 50s.
Will you do the same if that sales report is revised up to the low 70s in the next few weeks? If so, it will likely be a first for you. And, if I turn out to be right, my arrogance will have turned out to have been well deserved. Believing in myself rather than bowing to you, or anyone else.
There have certainly been times when they've passed up opportunities to make coins (or medals) that they could have sold. There have been silver planchet shortages and resource issues due to production mandates. For example, there are the RP Peace/Morgan dollars coming up and the star privy Silver Eagles that will be sold through the authorized dealers.
I have no idea if any of this might impact the medals being discussed here, but who knows.
@Bullsitter said:
Raw ones hit $250 last night.....
.
Just as NJ predicted...oh, wait...
Yeah, well, apparently some are speculating that there are 25K less floating around than I am convinced is the case.
Again, it's only been two weeks. Try to control yourself for another two weeks or so before engaging fully in the victory dance.
Because, sure, if the mintage turns out to be 50K rather than 75K, that is information I did not have at the time, and these will be worth significantly more than I originally thought. And good folks like @WQuarterFreddie will be upset because they will have flipped prematurely without having had the benefit of the transparency they are entitled to regarding the actual mintage. Since, if the Mint ends up selling 50K when they advertised that 75K lottery tickets were going to be available for distribution, that is information that EVERYONE would have found relevant when making buying and selling decisions.
That said, you'll have to excuse me, but I am just not there yet. And, as someone who is generally negative on anything coming out of the Mint at a significant premium, it's a little surprising to see you so enthusiastic about these. Makes me think everything you have to say is more about me than the medals.
I just hope you are as prolific with your posts when the missing 25K turn up.
So, you're saying that being wrong twice (value and mintage) makes you correct? 😁
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
But, we're not there yet. I do not believe the Mint would have any reason to intentionally mislead anyone, and I don't believe it happened. I think you are jumping the gun due to a glitch at the Mint in reporting sales, and that I was not wrong at all. Other than, apparently, temporarily, since I had no way to see the glitch in advance.
Whatever. How many did you buy and keep, in anticipation of the actual mintage only being 2/3 of the announced maximum? If the answer is zero, you too were wrong, at least to date, although you did not put yourself out publicly like I did. 😁
Could you point out which of your predictions for price would be different for 50k vs 75k? Your argument was $100 ounce of silver not that 75k was 25k too many.
Correct. There was no specific prediction, because there was no discussion of 75K not selling out with the lottery. You certainly never heard me say $104 was too much for a medal with a mintage of 1794!
So, let's just agree that, whatever I, or anyone else, would think about a premium with a mintage of 75K, the premium would be more justified if the mintage was reduced to 50K.
You know better, so I'm not sure why you are going there. But I have made multiple comments in the gold thread about the two variables into value for any modern Mint product being price and mintage.
275K was the right number for Morgan and Peace Dollars at $76 and $80. Not so much at $91 and $95. And I called that, correctly, weeks before they went on sale and sat unsold.
And now here we are, 3 months after release. 70s go for no meaningful premium, and raw are being sold on TV of all places, below the original Mint price.
As a result, I have been pooping all over the gold. Not because they won't be lovely. And because they should be sold as bullion, as you seemingly believe most Mint issues should. But because, based on recent sales of everything similar, based on maximum mintages for recent American Liberty High Relief gold, based on all time high pricing for gold, and based on the outrageous premiums they now seek for similar products, that 17,500 is too high a mintage to generate a sell out, or to generate any meaningful secondary market interest.
Change the 17,500 to 12,500, and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY. Change the $1,000 premium to $500 and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY. Change $2,700 gold to $1,500 gold, and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY.
So don't act shocked that I would have had a different opinion about a 50K medal than a 75K one, just because it wasn't contemplated, and therefore not discussed. Which isn't to say these would now be a home run with a 50K mintage and a $200+ price tag.
But it would be a shock to the market, given that 75K was announced and expected. And, for the record, no, I would not have been calling for them to settle below issue price if the mintage was announced at 50K. $100-150 would be, in my opinion, the right value, raw, for something like this at that mintage.
Again, pick at me and everything I post all you want, but $500 is irrational for a sealed package at current prices for privys and non-privys, given the odds, and $250 is high for the non-privy. But people might be reacting to the fact that 25K might never be made, and that might be causing more irrational behavior.
Why are you arguing with me, when you are the one usually saying all of this is nothing more than overpriced bullion?
It's not so much picking at you as asking you to find some humility. You've been wrong or probably wrong (mintage) on every point you've made in this thread but you just keep on pounding on the same point. I actually laugh out loud.
75k or 50k, you were wrong on the price as they continue to sell at $200+ even though expectations by buyers are that 75,000 are released.
And exactly 25,000 unaccounted for 2 weeks after release doesn't make you willing to hedge a little? You still claim to be 99.99% sure that it is more likely they can't count than that they did less than the maximum mintage... which they've done before. Instead, they lost exactly 25,000 sales in the number, which has never happened before. Are you sure 51% isn't a better number?
Sorry for my level of humility not satisfying your standards, but happy to have been able to give you a chuckle. And yes, I did concede in a post a few days ago that the nice round number does indeed open my eyes to a possibility I hadn't considered before.
That said, no, it still seems way too preposterous to manifest, when sales reporting issues have been frequent and widespread in the past. The possibility of the red Add to Bag button appearing until another 25K are sold, without privys, and the accompanying blow back that would certainly ensue if that was not adequately disclosed ahead of time, is truly too much for me to contemplate.
You seem to ignore anything I say that doesn't fit your narrative. When is the last time ANYTHING came within 4 of a maximum mintage two weeks after release? What about what is certainly a hold back for their auction?
So, sure 49,996 is indeed tantalizingly close to 50K, which would be quite a feat if the maximum mintage was actually announced at 50K. But, given that the announced number was 75K, and given that they have routinely had significant, inexplicable adjustments to their sales numbers, both up and down, no I'm not ready to bend the knee two weeks out because you happen to find my sticking to my guns to be arrogant.
So, sure, I'll bend the knee and give you a well deserved public apology if Coin World publishes an article in the next few weeks reporting that, for whatever reason, the final mintage for these will be in the low 50s.
Will you do the same if that sales report is revised up to the low 70s in the next few weeks? If so, it will likely be a first for you. And, if I turn out to be right, my arrogance will have turned out to have been well deserved. Believing in myself rather than bowing to you, or anyone else.
They have never said that they are auctioning any silver medals. They are auctioning gold coins. So there is no "hold back".
It is unlikely, but I do wonder if it is possible they minted 50,000 and distributed them with say 1,294 privies in a first batch to allow them time to mint 50,000, star-privy eagles for distribution this week to meet other stated commitments.
Theoretically they could still come back with 25,000 FH and say they still have 500 privies set aside to distribute in them, and they would probably all sell out again even with a low HHL.
We need the National Enquirer to investigate. Inquiring minds want to know the real story
I ordered a graded medal the same day as they were released by USM and also ordered 1 from the mint that same day. I opened the medal from the mint and really like it. I kinda want to keep both, but have received messages about seeing if the medal (OGP) is available for sale. Is selling the medal for a $60 profit worth selling or what could it be worth down the road? The ungraded medal can always be sent to TPG.
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@Bullsitter said:
Raw ones hit $250 last night.....
.
Just as NJ predicted...oh, wait...
Yeah, well, apparently some are speculating that there are 25K less floating around than I am convinced is the case.
Again, it's only been two weeks. Try to control yourself for another two weeks or so before engaging fully in the victory dance.
Because, sure, if the mintage turns out to be 50K rather than 75K, that is information I did not have at the time, and these will be worth significantly more than I originally thought. And good folks like @WQuarterFreddie will be upset because they will have flipped prematurely without having had the benefit of the transparency they are entitled to regarding the actual mintage. Since, if the Mint ends up selling 50K when they advertised that 75K lottery tickets were going to be available for distribution, that is information that EVERYONE would have found relevant when making buying and selling decisions.
That said, you'll have to excuse me, but I am just not there yet. And, as someone who is generally negative on anything coming out of the Mint at a significant premium, it's a little surprising to see you so enthusiastic about these. Makes me think everything you have to say is more about me than the medals.
I just hope you are as prolific with your posts when the missing 25K turn up.
So, you're saying that being wrong twice (value and mintage) makes you correct? 😁
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
You were not misled. It was very clearly indicated to be a mintage limit, not the actual mintage. Someone made an ASSumption about the mintage.
Yes. because mintage limits are typically just lofty, aspirational goals. Rarely, if ever, to be achieved when demand warrants it. Especially when the Mint is marking up the cost of the item by 200%. Sure. 🤣
@JWP said:
I ordered a graded medal the same day as they were released by USM and also ordered 1 from the mint that same day. I opened the medal from the mint and really like it. I kinda want to keep both, but have received messages about seeing if the medal (OGP) is available for sale. Is selling the medal for a $60 profit worth selling or what could it be worth down the road? The ungraded medal can always be sent to TPG.
I had two OGP and planned to let one tone. Sold both after being waterboarded with the one posters constant idea that dealers and returns would saturate the market and the idea of letting profits cover future cost of another sounded good at the time. It’s all good as the silver was last minute decision and the gold is what I was committed to buy when announced this time last year. Honestly if I still owned both would sell one and let the profit pay down on one kept.
@Bullsitter said:
Raw ones hit $250 last night.....
.
Just as NJ predicted...oh, wait...
Yeah, well, apparently some are speculating that there are 25K less floating around than I am convinced is the case.
Again, it's only been two weeks. Try to control yourself for another two weeks or so before engaging fully in the victory dance.
Because, sure, if the mintage turns out to be 50K rather than 75K, that is information I did not have at the time, and these will be worth significantly more than I originally thought. And good folks like @WQuarterFreddie will be upset because they will have flipped prematurely without having had the benefit of the transparency they are entitled to regarding the actual mintage. Since, if the Mint ends up selling 50K when they advertised that 75K lottery tickets were going to be available for distribution, that is information that EVERYONE would have found relevant when making buying and selling decisions.
That said, you'll have to excuse me, but I am just not there yet. And, as someone who is generally negative on anything coming out of the Mint at a significant premium, it's a little surprising to see you so enthusiastic about these. Makes me think everything you have to say is more about me than the medals.
I just hope you are as prolific with your posts when the missing 25K turn up.
So, you're saying that being wrong twice (value and mintage) makes you correct? 😁
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
But, we're not there yet. I do not believe the Mint would have any reason to intentionally mislead anyone, and I don't believe it happened. I think you are jumping the gun due to a glitch at the Mint in reporting sales, and that I was not wrong at all. Other than, apparently, temporarily, since I had no way to see the glitch in advance.
Whatever. How many did you buy and keep, in anticipation of the actual mintage only being 2/3 of the announced maximum? If the answer is zero, you too were wrong, at least to date, although you did not put yourself out publicly like I did. 😁
Could you point out which of your predictions for price would be different for 50k vs 75k? Your argument was $100 ounce of silver not that 75k was 25k too many.
Correct. There was no specific prediction, because there was no discussion of 75K not selling out with the lottery. You certainly never heard me say $104 was too much for a medal with a mintage of 1794!
So, let's just agree that, whatever I, or anyone else, would think about a premium with a mintage of 75K, the premium would be more justified if the mintage was reduced to 50K.
You know better, so I'm not sure why you are going there. But I have made multiple comments in the gold thread about the two variables into value for any modern Mint product being price and mintage.
275K was the right number for Morgan and Peace Dollars at $76 and $80. Not so much at $91 and $95. And I called that, correctly, weeks before they went on sale and sat unsold.
And now here we are, 3 months after release. 70s go for no meaningful premium, and raw are being sold on TV of all places, below the original Mint price.
As a result, I have been pooping all over the gold. Not because they won't be lovely. And because they should be sold as bullion, as you seemingly believe most Mint issues should. But because, based on recent sales of everything similar, based on maximum mintages for recent American Liberty High Relief gold, based on all time high pricing for gold, and based on the outrageous premiums they now seek for similar products, that 17,500 is too high a mintage to generate a sell out, or to generate any meaningful secondary market interest.
Change the 17,500 to 12,500, and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY. Change the $1,000 premium to $500 and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY. Change $2,700 gold to $1,500 gold, and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY.
So don't act shocked that I would have had a different opinion about a 50K medal than a 75K one, just because it wasn't contemplated, and therefore not discussed. Which isn't to say these would now be a home run with a 50K mintage and a $200+ price tag.
But it would be a shock to the market, given that 75K was announced and expected. And, for the record, no, I would not have been calling for them to settle below issue price if the mintage was announced at 50K. $100-150 would be, in my opinion, the right value, raw, for something like this at that mintage.
Again, pick at me and everything I post all you want, but $500 is irrational for a sealed package at current prices for privys and non-privys, given the odds, and $250 is high for the non-privy. But people might be reacting to the fact that 25K might never be made, and that might be causing more irrational behavior.
Why are you arguing with me, when you are the one usually saying all of this is nothing more than overpriced bullion?
It's not so much picking at you as asking you to find some humility. You've been wrong or probably wrong (mintage) on every point you've made in this thread but you just keep on pounding on the same point. I actually laugh out loud.
75k or 50k, you were wrong on the price as they continue to sell at $200+ even though expectations by buyers are that 75,000 are released.
And exactly 25,000 unaccounted for 2 weeks after release doesn't make you willing to hedge a little? You still claim to be 99.99% sure that it is more likely they can't count than that they did less than the maximum mintage... which they've done before. Instead, they lost exactly 25,000 sales in the number, which has never happened before. Are you sure 51% isn't a better number?
Sorry for my level of humility not satisfying your standards, but happy to have been able to give you a chuckle. And yes, I did concede in a post a few days ago that the nice round number does indeed open my eyes to a possibility I hadn't considered before.
That said, no, it still seems way too preposterous to manifest, when sales reporting issues have been frequent and widespread in the past. The possibility of the red Add to Bag button appearing until another 25K are sold, without privys, and the accompanying blow back that would certainly ensue if that was not adequately disclosed ahead of time, is truly too much for me to contemplate.
You seem to ignore anything I say that doesn't fit your narrative. When is the last time ANYTHING came within 4 of a maximum mintage two weeks after release? What about what is certainly a hold back for their auction?
So, sure 49,996 is indeed tantalizingly close to 50K, which would be quite a feat if the maximum mintage was actually announced at 50K. But, given that the announced number was 75K, and given that they have routinely had significant, inexplicable adjustments to their sales numbers, both up and down, no I'm not ready to bend the knee two weeks out because you happen to find my sticking to my guns to be arrogant.
So, sure, I'll bend the knee and give you a well deserved public apology if Coin World publishes an article in the next few weeks reporting that, for whatever reason, the final mintage for these will be in the low 50s.
Will you do the same if that sales report is revised up to the low 70s in the next few weeks? If so, it will likely be a first for you. And, if I turn out to be right, my arrogance will have turned out to have been well deserved. Believing in myself rather than bowing to you, or anyone else.
They have never said that they are auctioning any silver medals. They are auctioning gold coins. So there is no "hold back".
They also never said they weren't minting and selling 75K medals. The hold back to have something to accompany the auction is just speculation on my part.
As everything has been speculation on yours. We have no details on the auction. Other than that it's going to happen at some point.
Based on the only other time they did an auction, it's reasonable to assume silver will accompany gold. TBD. But it is actually very unreasonable to assume, even if 50K ends up being the final mintage, that they would get so close to that after only 2 weeks.
They NEVER reported anything within 4 of anything 2 weeks into sales. I'm telling you, it is nothing other than random happenstance that the wheel happened to stop at 49,996, and that it's so close to an even 50K that you have apparently become fixated on it. You'll see. But I won't hold my breath waiting for an apology.
@Goldminers said:
It is unlikely, but I do wonder if it is possible they minted 50,000 and distributed them with say 1,294 privies in a first batch to allow them time to mint 50,000, star-privy eagles for distribution this week to meet other stated commitments.
Theoretically they could still come back with 25,000 FH and say they still have 500 privies set aside to distribute in them, and they would probably all sell out again even with a low HHL.
We need the National Enquirer to investigate. Inquiring minds want to know the real story
Sure. Anything is theoretically possible. But it is HIGHLY unlikely that the US Mint would subordinate its own numismatic release production schedule to anything it is producing for a private, commercial customer.
If that was a thing, they could have just pushed the silver release back, maybe to coincide with the gold, rather than short producing, not saying anything about that, not making them available on Back Order, and then just randomly making them later and throwing them back up on the web for sale with no limit, with privys mixed in, for whoever happens to see them before they disappear again. This time for good.
Given the lottery, and the fact that the HHL has now been lifted, it would be very unfair if they just randomly threw them up on the website at some point in time. 7:30 a.m. is just something we happen to know about. It has not been published anywhere for the general public, unlike on sale dates and times, HHLs, etc.
I'm sorry, but it's just inconceivable to me that they would actually plan something like that.
Yes, we do all want to know, and Coin World has built a business, and press relationships with people at the Mint, specifically designed to meet that need.
You can rest assured that if they don't just magically appear on a subsequent sales report, as often happens in cases that receive a lot less attention, and if they don't just become magically available in quantity through the website, that Coin World will indeed get an answer regarding why the missing 25K were never minted and sold, and publish it for all to see.
We are not all going to be speculating blindly until the end of time. And I am now on record with my thoughts, repeatedly, and stand ready to be proven wrong.
At which point I will apologize to all for being so strident. In the alternative, if I turn out to be right, I will expect apologies from everyone offended that I did not give in and allow myself to be figuratively beaten into submission, just because what appears obvious to me is not clear to others.
@JWP said:
I ordered a graded medal the same day as they were released by USM and also ordered 1 from the mint that same day. I opened the medal from the mint and really like it. I kinda want to keep both, but have received messages about seeing if the medal (OGP) is available for sale. Is selling the medal for a $60 profit worth selling or what could it be worth down the road? The ungraded medal can always be sent to TPG.
$60 profit? They are going for over $200 on eBay. Someone is trying to steal from you right now.
No one knows what the future will hold. Especially if the mintage actually does turn out to be 50K. $60 is certainly a healthy profit on $104, and might look good in the future, but it is total rip-off to you based on current market prices.
@WQuarterFreddie said:
Has anyone called the US Mint gift shops to ask if they still have them for sale?🤔
No. Have you? 🤔
Yes.
Great! So why post a question that you already know the answer to without giving it to us? 🤔
Once again you are wrong. I posted the question. No one answered it so I took it upon myself to make the call and then posted the results.
Also, it is interesting how you will comment on every other comment I make EXCEPT for the one about me proving you wrong about being upset if the medal increases in value after I sold mine.
At least I had skin in the game. You on the other hand want to judge everyone else but won't reveal if you bought any.
@WQuarterFreddie said:
Has anyone called the US Mint gift shops to ask if they still have them for sale?🤔
No. Have you? 🤔
Yes.
Great! So why post a question that you already know the answer to without giving it to us? 🤔
Once again you are wrong. I posted the question. No one answered it so I took it upon myself to make the call and then posted the results.
Also, it is interesting how you will comment on every other comment I make EXCEPT for the one about me proving you wrong about being upset if the medal increases in value after I sold mine.
At least I had skin in the game. You on the other hand want to judge everyone else but won't reveal if you bought any.
Why is that?
Because I don't want you to know what I do and don't do? 🤔
@WQuarterFreddie said:
Has anyone called the US Mint gift shops to ask if they still have them for sale?🤔
No. Have you? 🤔
Yes.
Great! So why post a question that you already know the answer to without giving it to us? 🤔
Once again you are wrong. I posted the question. No one answered it so I took it upon myself to make the call and then posted the results.
Also, it is interesting how you will comment on every other comment I make EXCEPT for the one about me proving you wrong about being upset if the medal increases in value after I sold mine.
At least I had skin in the game. You on the other hand want to judge everyone else but won't reveal if you bought any.
Why is that?
Because I don't want you to know what I do and don't do? 🤔
But you want to know what everyone else is doing and judge them. Nice.
Well enjoy your time because eventually members will grow tired of you. I definitely have and will no longer respond to you.
Hopefully others will learn that you thrive on the attention and stop responding to you as well and we can all enjoy much shorter threads!
@WQuarterFreddie said:
Has anyone called the US Mint gift shops to ask if they still have them for sale?🤔
No. Have you? 🤔
Yes.
Great! So why post a question that you already know the answer to without giving it to us? 🤔
Once again you are wrong. I posted the question. No one answered it so I took it upon myself to make the call and then posted the results.
Also, it is interesting how you will comment on every other comment I make EXCEPT for the one about me proving you wrong about being upset if the medal increases in value after I sold mine.
At least I had skin in the game. You on the other hand want to judge everyone else but won't reveal if you bought any.
Why is that?
Because I don't want you to know what I do and don't do? 🤔
But you want to know what everyone else is doing and judge them. Nice.
Well enjoy your time because eventually members will grow tired of you. I definitely have and will no longer respond to you.
Hopefully others will learn that you thrive on the attention and stop responding to you as well and we can all enjoy much shorter threads!
Yes, you are very tired. Which is why you not only keep responding, but start entire threads devoted to nothing other than gathering a posse to join you in Ignoring me.
Because it's not enough for you to Ignore me. Everyone has to, because you suffer from FOMO if I am posting and anyone sees it when you don't.
I'm just waiting for the bill for all the time I have been living rent free in your head.
As I've said multiple times, I'm not posting for you, or for anyone else who has no interest in what I have to say. I thrive on nothing, other than my right to contribute my thoughts for the exclusive benefit of those who are interested.
Everyone else is free to put me on Ignore. I'll never know, unless you feel the need to tell me. And I PROMISE, I will never be insulted. Whether or not you make a point of telling me.
I fully respect your right to have no interest in what I have to say, not like the way I say it, how many words I use to say it, or how often I say it. The only thing I don't respect is your apparent need to try to dictate these things to me. So I literally ignore you, and keep doing my thing.
Apparently, to your never ending chagrin. But that's on you. I don't go out of my way to do it. Or to conform to whatever standard you want to set for me, just because you keep stomping your feet and making posts about the joys of the Ignore function.
Just do it, and stop talking about it already. Or not. As I said, entirely your call. I'm good no matter what you decide.
So I literally ignore you, and keep doing my thing.
Yes. Please read it again more carefully, focusing on the words in bold. You seem to have issues understanding things I say.
Maybe it's me. Maybe it's you. But, believe it or not, while I have certainly been accused of being verbose, long winded, repetitive, etc., no one has ever accused me of being unable to communicate clearly. Either verbally or in writing.
"The only thing I don't respect is your apparent need to try to dictate these things to me. So I literally ignore you, and keep doing my thing."
Responding to him is not "literally the opposite of “literally ignoring” him." Reading what he wants me to do, understanding it, and not doing it, is "literally ignoring him." 😂
You seem to be focused exclusively on the functionality of the Ignore function on the website. Which, if employed, means posts are screened from your view. Not the "literal" meaning in the English language of the word "ignore."
In fact, you "literally" cannot ignore something you never see in the first place, if you want to get technical. 😂
The button should probably more appropriately be called "Block," but that's another discussion for another day. But you absolutely can "literally ignore" someone by responding to them and telling them you are not going to do what they want you to do. Which is "literally" what I said. 😂
"ig·nore
/iɡˈnôr/
verb
refuse to take notice of or acknowledge; disregard intentionally"
Comments
anyone going to baltimore, call the us mint headquarters sales counter before you go and ask them to find out when the rest will be sold because lots of baltimore people want to know
My thinking against this being the plan is that the unstruck quantity is 1/3 of the mintage limit. That's a lot to withhold from the market to sell at a show. I would expect the quantity saved for a show to be 5k or 10k max.
i'm not thinking they'l sell hemat the show
the call is toprep them for the questions they'l likly receive in baltimore
Has anyone called the US Mint gift shops to ask if they still have them for sale?🤔
Raw ones hit $250 last night.....
.
Just as NJ predicted...oh, wait...
No. Have you? 🤔
Well I tried calling the US Mint Coin Store in Washington DC. Turns out it's the phone number to the US Mint.
I talked with a Customer Service rep who put me on hold to find the number to the actual Coin Store location. Turns out it's the same phone number!🙄
That's 5 minutes of my life I will never get back!😂🤣
Yeah, well, apparently some are speculating that there are 25K less floating around than I am convinced is the case.
Again, it's only been two weeks. Try to control yourself for another two weeks or so before engaging fully in the victory dance.
Because, sure, if the mintage turns out to be 50K rather than 75K, that is information I did not have at the time, and these will be worth significantly more than I originally thought. And good folks like @WQuarterFreddie and @coiner will be upset because they will have flipped prematurely without having had the benefit of the transparency they are entitled to regarding the actual mintage. Since, if the Mint ends up selling 50K when they advertised that 75K lottery tickets were going to be available for distribution, that is information that EVERYONE would have found relevant when making buying and selling decisions.
That said, you'll have to excuse me, but I am just not there yet. And, as someone who is generally negative on anything coming out of the Mint at a significant premium, it's a little surprising to see you so enthusiastic about these. Makes me think everything you have to say is more about me than the medals.
I just hope you are as prolific with your posts when the missing 25K turn up.
the Baltimore show show tell us something about the fate of another 25k silver medals. if there is product available, i would assume it would be smaller quantities and sales would be limited to smaller quantities. I cant see more than a qty of 5,000 being available at a show.
If any.
and IF there are any available at the show, I can see the reason for NO announcement before hand.....to limit lines....
So, you're saying that being wrong twice (value and mintage) makes you correct? 😁
No. I'm saying being intentionally misled with respect to mintage (I did not pull the number out of thin air -- it was provided by the Mint) would render an opinion regarding value invalid. Not wrong.
But, we're not there yet. I do not believe the Mint would have any reason to intentionally mislead anyone, and I don't believe it happened. I think you are jumping the gun due to a glitch at the Mint in reporting sales, and that I was not wrong at all. Other than, apparently, temporarily, since I had no way to see the glitch in advance.
Whatever. How many did you buy and keep, in anticipation of the actual mintage only being 2/3 of the announced maximum? If the answer is zero, you too were wrong, at least to date, although you did not put yourself out publicly like I did. 😁
Yes. "If there are any available," "NO announcement," and " limit lines." Count on it.
Because that's what they do -- play games to benefit people who happened to be at a show. "If" there are 25K available, they will go onto the beautiful new website they have spent years and gobs of money improving, to the point that it can move unlimited amounts of product without crashing.
If they happen to become widely available, without privys, they will be available everywhere, including the show, and there will be no sell out and no lines anywhere. And, of course, no reason for an announcement. Not happening.
They are gone, gone, gone. If they weren't, they'd pop up at 7:30 a.m., the reference to any remaining stock having privys would be removed from the website, to avoid confusion and misrepresentation, because those 1794 are CERTAINLY long gone, even if they did short produce the regular medals for some reason, and everyone would be able to buy as many as they want.
My prediction: If 25K more medals do show up, they'll include privies. (Assuming that there isn't some current data showing that all privies are already in the wild.)
My Carson City Morgan Registry Set
There will NEVER be definitive data regarding the privys, because they were supposedly seeded randomly into the population, so will not be tracked and reported separately by the Mint. Given that they were the prize, and given there were only ever going to be 1794 of them, absolutely no reason for the Mint to have ever held them back.
As a result, I think there is a 0.1% chance the 25K have not already been produced and sold, and a 0.00000001% chance all the privys have not already been produced and sold.
Yes.
Could you point out which of your predictions for price would be different for 50k vs 75k? Your argument was $100 ounce of silver not that 75k was 25k too many.
Wrong again. I sold mine to recover my cost of the medal NOT to flip it to make money.
Sold it to another member on BST with the intention of getting it in the hands of a someone who wanted one. What they do with it is their business and I am happy for them if the value increases 10 fold.
Once again your arrogance and pompous attitude have misled you.🙄
So you're saying there is a 99.9% chance that the Mint database is inaccurate.
Mintage Limit: 75,000
They simply state we will not make more that 75k, This is the info that we really only know. They can always make less. Isn't most all mintages not the exact number, due to returns/lack of sale/demand etc.
Most likely they've misjudged the demand again and error on the side of caution.
Great! So why post a question that you already know the answer to without giving it to us? 🤔
EXACTLY. Not because there is anything inherently wrong with the database. But because garbage in always results in garbage out, and no other possible conspiracy explanation for the missing 25K makes any real sense.
So, yeah, 99.99% the reported sales figure is wrong. I'm more convinced of this the more I think about it.
While 50K is a very shiny round number to focus on, consider for a minute that pretty much all other sellouts, even those without massive returns, don't get THAT close (4?) to the maximum mintage on a Mint sales report only two weeks after the on sale date.
Then consider their cryptic press release about an auction for the gold coins. People are absolutely salivating over the possibility of silver medals making a cameo appearance in Baltimore to join their gold cousins, even though they are unavailable elsewhere, and that would be patently unfair to the tax paying public who did not make it to Baltimore.
MUCH more likely, if there was any hold back at all, to make a later appearance with gold coins, it would be as part of a Mint auction as was done with Dawn and Dusk in 2022. That hold back is far more likely, but would be hundreds of medals, not thousands, or tens of thousands.
But any amount at all would put us over 50K, so now what? They intentionally did a short run of 50,400? Or 51,794? Or 75K are gone, and just not reported. Yet. For whatever reason. You know what I think! 99.99%. 😀
Correct. There was no specific prediction, because there was no discussion of 75K not selling out with the lottery. You certainly never heard me say $104 was too much for a medal with a mintage of 1794!
So, let's just agree that, whatever I, or anyone else, would think about a premium with a mintage of 75K, the premium would be more justified if the mintage was reduced to 50K.
You know better, so I'm not sure why you are going there. But I have made multiple comments in the gold thread about the two variables into value for any modern Mint product being price and mintage.
275K was the right number for Morgan and Peace Dollars at $76 and $80. Not so much at $91 and $95. And I called that, correctly, weeks before they went on sale and sat unsold.
And now here we are, 3 months after release. 70s go for no meaningful premium, and raw are being sold, on TV of all places, below the original Mint price.
As a result, I have been pooping all over the gold. Not because they won't be lovely. Or because I think they should be sold as bullion, as you seemingly believe most Mint issues should. But because, based on recent sales of everything similar, based on maximum mintages for recent American Liberty High Relief gold, based on all time high pricing for gold, and based on the outrageous premiums they now seek for similar products, that 17,500 is too high a mintage to generate a sell out, or to generate any meaningful secondary market interest.
Change the 17,500 to 12,500, and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY. Change the $1,000 premium to $500 and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY. Change $2,700 gold to $1,500 gold, and everything changes. OBVIOUSLY.
So don't act shocked that I would have had a different opinion about a 50K medal than a 75K one, just because it wasn't contemplated, and therefore not discussed. Why are you arguing with me, when you are the one usually saying all of this is nothing more than overpriced bullion?
It's not so much picking at you as asking you to find some humility. You've been wrong or probably wrong (mintage) on every point you've made in this thread but you just keep on pounding on the same point. I actually laugh out loud.
75k or 50k, you were wrong on the price as they continue to sell at $200+ even though expectations by buyers are that 75,000 are released.
And exactly 25,000 unaccounted for 2 weeks after release doesn't make you willing to hedge a little? You still claim to be 99.99% sure that it is more likely they can't count than that they did less than the maximum mintage... which they've done before. Instead, they lost exactly 25,000 sales in the number, which has never happened before. Are you sure 51% isn't a better number?
Thanks, but that's just not how it works. They make a lot of money selling $34 silver planchets for $104. With or without a privy mark. They are a federal agency, and return profits to the US Treasury. If they are allowed to sell 75K, of anything, and they can sell 75K, of anything, they sell 75K, of anything.
If they misjudge demand, which would NEVER happen here due to the privy lottery, they place the item on Back Order, continue taking orders, and make more. They don't just throw up their hands, say "oops, error on the side of caution," and leave $2.6 million sitting on the table. Just doesn't happen.
You were not misled. It was very clearly indicated to be a mintage limit, not the actual mintage. Someone made an ASSumption about the mintage.
Sorry for my level of humility not satisfying your standards, but happy to have been able to give you a chuckle. And yes, I did concede in a post a few days ago that the nice round number does indeed open my eyes to a possibility I hadn't considered before.
That said, no, it still seems way too preposterous to manifest, when sales reporting issues have been frequent and widespread in the past. The possibility of the red Add to Bag button appearing until another 25K are sold, without privys, and the accompanying blow back that would certainly ensue if that was not adequately disclosed ahead of time, is truly too much for me to contemplate.
You seem to ignore anything I say that doesn't fit your narrative. When is the last time ANYTHING came within 4 of a maximum mintage two weeks after release? What about what is certainly a hold back for their auction?
So, sure 49,996 is indeed tantalizingly close to 50K, which would be quite a feat if the maximum mintage was actually announced at 50K. But, given that the announced number was 75K, and given that they have routinely had significant, inexplicable adjustments to their sales numbers, both up and down, no I'm not ready to bend the knee two weeks out because you happen to find my sticking to my guns to be arrogant.
So, sure, I'll bend the knee and give you a well deserved public apology if Coin World publishes an article in the next few weeks reporting that, for whatever reason, the final mintage for these will be in the low 50s.
Will you do the same if that sales report is revised up to the low 70s in the next few weeks? If so, it will likely be a first for you. And, if I turn out to be right, my arrogance will have turned out to have been well deserved. Believing in myself rather than bowing to you, or anyone else.
There have certainly been times when they've passed up opportunities to make coins (or medals) that they could have sold. There have been silver planchet shortages and resource issues due to production mandates. For example, there are the RP Peace/Morgan dollars coming up and the star privy Silver Eagles that will be sold through the authorized dealers.
I have no idea if any of this might impact the medals being discussed here, but who knows.
They have never said that they are auctioning any silver medals. They are auctioning gold coins. So there is no "hold back".
It is unlikely, but I do wonder if it is possible they minted 50,000 and distributed them with say 1,294 privies in a first batch to allow them time to mint 50,000, star-privy eagles for distribution this week to meet other stated commitments.
Theoretically they could still come back with 25,000 FH and say they still have 500 privies set aside to distribute in them, and they would probably all sell out again even with a low HHL.
We need the National Enquirer to investigate. Inquiring minds want to know the real story
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Reminds me of some.......
.
I ordered a graded medal the same day as they were released by USM and also ordered 1 from the mint that same day. I opened the medal from the mint and really like it. I kinda want to keep both, but have received messages about seeing if the medal (OGP) is available for sale. Is selling the medal for a $60 profit worth selling or what could it be worth down the road? The ungraded medal can always be sent to TPG.
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members
Yes. because mintage limits are typically just lofty, aspirational goals. Rarely, if ever, to be achieved when demand warrants it. Especially when the Mint is marking up the cost of the item by 200%. Sure. 🤣
I had two OGP and planned to let one tone. Sold both after being waterboarded with the one posters constant idea that dealers and returns would saturate the market and the idea of letting profits cover future cost of another sounded good at the time. It’s all good as the silver was last minute decision and the gold is what I was committed to buy when announced this time last year. Honestly if I still owned both would sell one and let the profit pay down on one kept.
They also never said they weren't minting and selling 75K medals. The hold back to have something to accompany the auction is just speculation on my part.
As everything has been speculation on yours. We have no details on the auction. Other than that it's going to happen at some point.
Based on the only other time they did an auction, it's reasonable to assume silver will accompany gold. TBD. But it is actually very unreasonable to assume, even if 50K ends up being the final mintage, that they would get so close to that after only 2 weeks.
They NEVER reported anything within 4 of anything 2 weeks into sales. I'm telling you, it is nothing other than random happenstance that the wheel happened to stop at 49,996, and that it's so close to an even 50K that you have apparently become fixated on it. You'll see. But I won't hold my breath waiting for an apology.
Sure. Anything is theoretically possible. But it is HIGHLY unlikely that the US Mint would subordinate its own numismatic release production schedule to anything it is producing for a private, commercial customer.
If that was a thing, they could have just pushed the silver release back, maybe to coincide with the gold, rather than short producing, not saying anything about that, not making them available on Back Order, and then just randomly making them later and throwing them back up on the web for sale with no limit, with privys mixed in, for whoever happens to see them before they disappear again. This time for good.
Given the lottery, and the fact that the HHL has now been lifted, it would be very unfair if they just randomly threw them up on the website at some point in time. 7:30 a.m. is just something we happen to know about. It has not been published anywhere for the general public, unlike on sale dates and times, HHLs, etc.
I'm sorry, but it's just inconceivable to me that they would actually plan something like that.
Yes, we do all want to know, and Coin World has built a business, and press relationships with people at the Mint, specifically designed to meet that need.
You can rest assured that if they don't just magically appear on a subsequent sales report, as often happens in cases that receive a lot less attention, and if they don't just become magically available in quantity through the website, that Coin World will indeed get an answer regarding why the missing 25K were never minted and sold, and publish it for all to see.
We are not all going to be speculating blindly until the end of time. And I am now on record with my thoughts, repeatedly, and stand ready to be proven wrong.
At which point I will apologize to all for being so strident. In the alternative, if I turn out to be right, I will expect apologies from everyone offended that I did not give in and allow myself to be figuratively beaten into submission, just because what appears obvious to me is not clear to others.
$60 profit? They are going for over $200 on eBay. Someone is trying to steal from you right now.
No one knows what the future will hold. Especially if the mintage actually does turn out to be 50K. $60 is certainly a healthy profit on $104, and might look good in the future, but it is total rip-off to you based on current market prices.
November and still no image of the gold coin.
Once again you are wrong. I posted the question. No one answered it so I took it upon myself to make the call and then posted the results.
Also, it is interesting how you will comment on every other comment I make EXCEPT for the one about me proving you wrong about being upset if the medal increases in value after I sold mine.
At least I had skin in the game. You on the other hand want to judge everyone else but won't reveal if you bought any.
Why is that?
Because I don't want you to know what I do and don't do? 🤔
Serious question…
Is there a block button in this forum? I think one of the posters here doesn’t have any friends and likes to argue with their shadow!!
Yes. It's called Ignore. No argument.
You click on the username, then hit the drop down arrow on the user's page. Easy peasey. You're welcome. Seriously.
But you want to know what everyone else is doing and judge them. Nice.
Well enjoy your time because eventually members will grow tired of you. I definitely have and will no longer respond to you.
Hopefully others will learn that you thrive on the attention and stop responding to you as well and we can all enjoy much shorter threads!
Well worth utilizing:
.> @Liquidated said:
Yes. Makes any thread hijacked by NJ much shorter and less stressful. 😎
>
Lmfao
Yes, you are very tired. Which is why you not only keep responding, but start entire threads devoted to nothing other than gathering a posse to join you in Ignoring me.
Because it's not enough for you to Ignore me. Everyone has to, because you suffer from FOMO if I am posting and anyone sees it when you don't.
I'm just waiting for the bill for all the time I have been living rent free in your head.
As I've said multiple times, I'm not posting for you, or for anyone else who has no interest in what I have to say. I thrive on nothing, other than my right to contribute my thoughts for the exclusive benefit of those who are interested.
Everyone else is free to put me on Ignore. I'll never know, unless you feel the need to tell me. And I PROMISE, I will never be insulted. Whether or not you make a point of telling me.
I fully respect your right to have no interest in what I have to say, not like the way I say it, how many words I use to say it, or how often I say it. The only thing I don't respect is your apparent need to try to dictate these things to me. So I literally ignore you, and keep doing my thing.
Apparently, to your never ending chagrin. But that's on you. I don't go out of my way to do it. Or to conform to whatever standard you want to set for me, just because you keep stomping your feet and making posts about the joys of the Ignore function.
Just do it, and stop talking about it already. Or not. As I said, entirely your call. I'm good no matter what you decide.
Responding to him is literally the opposite of “literally ignoring” him. 😂
Yes. Please read it again more carefully, focusing on the words in bold. You seem to have issues understanding things I say.
Maybe it's me. Maybe it's you. But, believe it or not, while I have certainly been accused of being verbose, long winded, repetitive, etc., no one has ever accused me of being unable to communicate clearly. Either verbally or in writing.
"The only thing I don't respect is your apparent need to try to dictate these things to me. So I literally ignore you, and keep doing my thing."
Responding to him is not "literally the opposite of “literally ignoring” him." Reading what he wants me to do, understanding it, and not doing it, is "literally ignoring him." 😂
You seem to be focused exclusively on the functionality of the Ignore function on the website. Which, if employed, means posts are screened from your view. Not the "literal" meaning in the English language of the word "ignore."
In fact, you "literally" cannot ignore something you never see in the first place, if you want to get technical. 😂
The button should probably more appropriately be called "Block," but that's another discussion for another day. But you absolutely can "literally ignore" someone by responding to them and telling them you are not going to do what they want you to do. Which is "literally" what I said. 😂
"ig·nore
/iɡˈnôr/
verb
refuse to take notice of or acknowledge; disregard intentionally"