@Project Numismatics said:
Sealed medals going for $390 - $400 on eBay. Seeing dealer bids >$325. This is one popular lottery ticket. Wish I had loaded up!
😳
They are currently selling for $200, and trending lower, without privys, and around $4,000 with a privy. So, asking $650 for a coin flip with a 97.6% shot at $200, and a 2.4% shot at $4,000 is just stupid, since the economic value of that bet is $291.
The fact that people are willing to pay more than $300 for sealed packages just tells you that people are at best, irrational, and at worst, stupid. My money is on most of them not understanding the math. Which does not make them irrational. 😀
And that's before potential tampering with the seal. I wonder if a single person has reported buying a sealed package on the secondary market and pulling a privy?
Or is the whole game just to trade them, sealed, forever? In which case an ungraded privy would have to go for $18,900 for a sealed package of one to make sense at $649 with the regular medal worth $200
The fact is that dealers are putting out bids >$300 and eBay is reflecting completed sales near $400 as of right now.
Lottery tickets generally sell for more than expected value. This is the market telling you how much the fun of scratching the ticket is worth.
Lotteries aren’t about rationality or ignorance of the odds. Lotteries are about fun, hope and other intangibles. We’ve beat that horse to death though - see Vaultbox.
Don't use the V Word!!!!!!
We should use the V word. VaultBox Series 9 was just released from the U.S. Mint. We know how mint officials arrived at the lottery idea right?
VaultBox is NOT released from the U.S. Mint. That's all I got to say about that!
I think he's referring to this coin release as "Vaultbox 9".
All I know is I get anxiety everytime someone mentions VaultBox!🤪
My point was that it doesnt matter if the seller was original purchaaser at $104 or it was secondhand at whatever the price.
All that matters is there is a chance to get a $4000 PRIVY marked coin in there.
The market will decide what that "lottery ticket" is worth. Who klnows what a sealed box or poly bag is worth? $400/$500/$600?
@Project Numismatics said:
Sealed medals going for $390 - $400 on eBay. Seeing dealer bids >$325. This is one popular lottery ticket. Wish I had loaded up!
😳
They are currently selling for $200, and trending lower, without privys, and around $4,000 with a privy. So, asking $650 for a coin flip with a 97.6% shot at $200, and a 2.4% shot at $4,000 is just stupid, since the economic value of that bet is $291.
The fact that people are willing to pay more than $300 for sealed packages just tells you that people are at best, irrational, and at worst, stupid. My money is on most of them not understanding the math. Which does not make them irrational. 😀
And that's before potential tampering with the seal. I wonder if a single person has reported buying a sealed package on the secondary market and pulling a privy?
Or is the whole game just to trade them, sealed, forever? In which case an ungraded privy would have to go for $18,900 for a sealed package of one to make sense at $649 with the regular medal worth $200
The fact is that dealers are putting out bids >$300 and eBay is reflecting completed sales near $400 as of right now.
Lottery tickets generally sell for more than expected value. This is the market telling you how much the fun of scratching the ticket is worth.
Lotteries aren’t about rationality or ignorance of the odds. Lotteries are about fun, hope and other intangibles. We’ve beat that horse to death though - see Vaultbox.
Don't use the V Word!!!!!!
We should use the V word. VaultBox Series 9 was just released from the U.S. Mint. We know how mint officials arrived at the lottery idea right?
VaultBox is NOT released from the U.S. Mint. That's all I got to say about that!
It's a joke. Get it? VB9? These are still hot but prices may have peaked in the last few days.
@coiner said:
My point was that it doesnt matter if the seller was original purchaaser at $104 or it was secondhand at whatever the price.
All that matters is there is a chance to get a $4000 PRIVY marked coin in there.
The market will decide what that "lottery ticket" is worth. Who klnows what a sealed box or poly bag is worth? $400/$500/$600?
Your theory on sealed boxes is holding up. There are a lot of privies out there and the market does decide. Many people buy $100 in lottery tickets with a miniscule chance at $10k. With these there's no problem getting $200 back if yours is not a privy. Call it irrational exuberance, but when was any financial market truly rational?
my only issue with selling sealed boxes/bags on ebay is some of the "bad" reported experience of others.
the bad experience being the buyer opens the package, doesnt get the PRIVY, and returns the package as "not as described"
ebay almost 100% of the time allows the return.
i'm not saying it happens all the time - but it has happened before more than a few times and can happen again
@coiner said:
My point was that it doesnt matter if the seller was original purchaaser at $104 or it was secondhand at whatever the price.
All that matters is there is a chance to get a $4000 PRIVY marked coin in there.
The market will decide what that "lottery ticket" is worth. Who klnows what a sealed box or poly bag is worth? $400/$500/$600?
That is exactly the point. He can keep saying that they aren't worth $400. But if people are buying at $400, they are worth $400. As you said, the market decides... and has decided.
@coiner said:
my only issue with selling sealed boxes/bags on ebay is some of the "bad" reported experience of others.
the bad experience being the buyer opens the package, doesnt get the PRIVY, and returns the package as "not as described"
ebay almost 100% of the time allows the return.
i'm not saying it happens all the time - but it has happened before more than a few times and can happen again
That's why Whatnot has no returns on mystery boxes. Although I have wondered what the CC company would do if someone initiated a chargeback.
@coiner said:
My point was that it doesnt matter if the seller was original purchaaser at $104 or it was secondhand at whatever the price.
All that matters is there is a chance to get a $4000 PRIVY marked coin in there.
The market will decide what that "lottery ticket" is worth. Who klnows what a sealed box or poly bag is worth? $400/$500/$600?
Right. And my point is that most people on this forum are smart enough to realize that paying more than $300 for a 2.4% at $4,000, and a 97.6% chance at $200, makes no sense.
I know what a sealed box is worth today. $291. That makes buying one at $104 smart, and at $350+ dumb. The "lottery ticket" is worth no more and no less than its expected value. The gamble is not knowing what you are going to get before scratching it off. Not paying more than it is worth. Because THAT is a certain loser, not a gamble.
Paying more than $291 is playing the greater fool theory. So my guess is that people on this forum saying "who knows what a sealed box is worth, $400/$500/$600?" are sellers, not buyers at those prices.
@coiner said:
My point was that it doesnt matter if the seller was original purchaser at $104 or it was secondhand at whatever the price.
All that matters is there is a chance to get a $4000 PRIVY marked coin in there.
The market will decide what that "lottery ticket" is worth. Who klnows what a sealed box or poly bag is worth? $400/$500/$600?
That is exactly the point. He can keep saying that they aren't worth $400. But if people are buying at $400, they are worth $400. As you said, the market decides... and has decided.
Yes, I can keep saying they are not worth $400. Because, empirically, they are not. Markets can also be wrong, which is why they constantly adjust.
I'm not saying the privys aren't worth $4,000, or that the regular ones are not worth $200. Although those values are also subject to constant change.
But I am saying 1+1=2. Not anything different that some dopes on eBay say it equals. That's what I'm calling the greater fool theory.
.976x200=195.2, and .024x4000=96. Add them together, and you get 291.2. That's what a sealed box is worth today. Period. The fact that some dope is willing to give you $2 for 4 quarters does not mean your quarters are half dollars. It just means the buyer does not understand value. Same here.
And, again, for everyone supporting people having "fun" that makes no economic sense, who here is a buyer at $300+? If the answer is no one, I'm not wrong.
@coiner said:
My point was that it doesnt matter if the seller was original purchaser at $104 or it was secondhand at whatever the price.
All that matters is there is a chance to get a $4000 PRIVY marked coin in there.
The market will decide what that "lottery ticket" is worth. Who klnows what a sealed box or poly bag is worth? $400/$500/$600?
That is exactly the point. He can keep saying that they aren't worth $400. But if people are buying at $400, they are worth $400. As you said, the market decides... and has decided.
Yes, I can keep saying they are not worth $400. Because, empirically, they are not. Markets can also be wrong, which is why they constantly adjust.
I'm not saying the privys aren't worth $4,000, or that the regular ones are not worth $200. Although those values are also subject to constant change.
But I am saying 1+1=2. Not anything different that some dopes on eBay say it equals. That's what I'm calling the greater fool theory.
.976x200=195.2, and .024x4000=96. Add them together, and you get 291.2. That's what a sealed box is worth today. Period. The fact that some dope is willing to give you $2 for 4 quarters does not mean your quarters are half dollars. It just means the buyer does not understand value. Same here.
And, again, for everyone supporting people having "fun" that makes no economic sense, who here is a buyer at $300+? If the answer is no one, I'm not wrong.
If anyone on ebay ever bought one for $300+, then you are wrong. It's not investment value. It's fun. No bet ever made in a casino has a value equal to the wager. No raffle ticket ever sold has a value equal to the cost. You still don't understand gambling. And you apparently never will. Calling people "the greater fool" shows no tolerance, no empathy, and no understanding. They made a choice about how they want to spend their entertainment dollars. Period.
@coiner said:
My point was that it doesnt matter if the seller was original purchaser at $104 or it was secondhand at whatever the price.
All that matters is there is a chance to get a $4000 PRIVY marked coin in there.
The market will decide what that "lottery ticket" is worth. Who klnows what a sealed box or poly bag is worth? $400/$500/$600?
That is exactly the point. He can keep saying that they aren't worth $400. But if people are buying at $400, they are worth $400. As you said, the market decides... and has decided.
Yes, I can keep saying they are not worth $400. Because, empirically, they are not. Markets can also be wrong, which is why they constantly adjust.
I'm not saying the privys aren't worth $4,000, or that the regular ones are not worth $200. Although those values are also subject to constant change.
But I am saying 1+1=2. Not anything different that some dopes on eBay say it equals. That's what I'm calling the greater fool theory.
.976x200=195.2, and .024x4000=96. Add them together, and you get 291.2. That's what a sealed box is worth today. Period. The fact that some dope is willing to give you $2 for 4 quarters does not mean your quarters are half dollars. It just means the buyer does not understand value. Same here.
And, again, for everyone supporting people having "fun" that makes no economic sense, who here is a buyer at $300+? If the answer is no one, I'm not wrong.
If anyone on ebay ever bought one for $300+, then you are wrong. It's not investment value. It's fun. No bet ever made in a casino has a value equal to the wager. No raffle ticket ever sold has a value equal to the cost. You still don't understand gambling. And you apparently never will. Calling people "the greater fool" shows no tolerance, no empathy, and no understanding. They made a choice about how they want to spend their entertainment dollars. Period.
I respectfully disagree. I think the buyers either don't understand economic value, or are just buying with a view towards flipping to someone else for even more. I don't think anyone derives "fun" from opening mail from the Mint.
No. No tolerance, understanding or empathy for a lack of basic math skills causing people to throw away hard earned money. Not because a regular medal isn't worth $200, or one with a privy isn't worth $4,000. But because a package containing one or the other, unopened, with a 2.4% chance at the latter, isn't worth $300.
And that's what people are paying for -- the 2.4% chance at $4,000 and the 97.6% chance at $200. How do I know this? Because there is no market on eBay, at several hundred dollars a pop, for sealed packages of total crap, where don't know exactly what they are getting, but they are getting nothing a value.
That's what's left here when you strip away the $291 of expected value -- the thrill of the break. It's why people who know what they are doing will pay $300, when they know there is a 97.4% chance of getting a $200 medal in return, with a 2.4% chance of a $4,000 one.
No one who understands value would pay more than that. If they would, they'd pay $100 for an unopened box of nothing, because they'd receive the same thrill, and the same nothing else in return for their money.
And again, as with your defense of VB, I am not interested in your theoretical defense of the anonymous rando on eBay. Are you a buyer at this price? If not, I'm not wrong. Is anyone here paying $300+ for a 2.4% shot at $4K? If not, I'm not wrong. 1+1 still equals 2, even if eBay says it equals 5.
@cheezhed said:
Coins have always been worth what someone is willing to pay for them.
Apparently, the same applies to sealed mailers with who knows what inside. Even when there is formula to determine the precise economic value of what is inside. And 4 quarters are worth $2 so long as I can find someone to pay that, right?
Everyone else is wrong. Period. If and when the market lines up to his price, you’ll see. But even if it never aligns up to his price in your lifetime, he will still be right eventually. You’ll just be dead before it happens. But no matter what, he’s right. 100%. (Am I doing this right?)
@jwitten said:
Everyone else is wrong. Period. If and when the market lines up to his price, you’ll see. But even if it never aligns up to his price in your lifetime, he will still be right eventually. You’ll just be dead before it happens. But no matter what, he’s right. 100%. (Am I doing this right?)
Nope. You got it!! 😀
1+1 is always going to equal 2, even if someone on the internet thinks it should be 11, and then 5 other people chime in to agree with them.
Maybe the market converges to economic value, maybe "greater fools" keep buying and selling unopened packages back and forth, at ever increasing prices, until the end of time. But that will never change what the unopened package is worth. Only what people are willing to pay for an unopened package worth $291, assuming the value of the medals with and without privys never changes.
Because this is not a Beanie Baby, or a Pet Rock. This is a math problem, with a discrete, readily discernible solution. Anyone wanting the thrill of a rip could have had one, during a pre-determined 24 hour period, for $104.
This now is just people who literally do not understand the value of what is in the box. Or who do understand, and are just buying in anticipation of exploiting those who do not. No understanding, no empathy, and no other rational explanation.
Just like the missing 34K are going to show up on a sales report at some point. Not on the web at 7:30 a.m. sometime soon. And not never, with the final mintage being 41K, 50K, or anything materially below 75K. Take it to the bank. I'm right, and anyone who disagrees is wrong. 😀
@jwitten said:
Everyone else is wrong. Period. If and when the market lines up to his price, you’ll see. But even if it never aligns up to his price in your lifetime, he will still be right eventually. You’ll just be dead before it happens. But no matter what, he’s right. 100%. (Am I doing this right?)
Implicitly, he's already admitted he was wrong. He originally said these weren't worth the $104 Mint cost. However, he calculated their value as $200 in his own little calculation. [Not that he'll ever acknowledge that. ]
@cheezhed said:
Coins have always been worth what someone is willing to pay for them.
But my calculation shows that a 1975 no S dime can't possibly be worth more than 10 cents... unless you are looking for a greater fool.
That would be incorrect. As would be creating a million sealed boxes, 999,999 of which contain a 1975-S dime, with one containing the no-S version, and "calculating" the sealed boxes are worth $500 each. Because "fun," and maybe some dope bought one on eBay for that price.
@jwitten said:
Everyone else is wrong. Period. If and when the market lines up to his price, you’ll see. But even if it never aligns up to his price in your lifetime, he will still be right eventually. You’ll just be dead before it happens. But no matter what, he’s right. 100%. (Am I doing this right?)
Implicitly, he's already admitted he was wrong. He originally said these weren't worth the $104 Mint cost. However, he calculated their value as $200 in his own little calculation. [Not that he'll ever acknowledge that. ]
Not quite true. They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary. Beyond that, there is no denying the non-privys are going for around $200 today.
It's true that I never expected that, so anyone who bought them for a two week flip was right and I was wrong. (Does that count as an acknowledgement? Unlike some, I have zero problem admitting when I am wrong.)
Beyond that, the trend does now seem to be down, and I very seriously doubt they will level off or go up from here. Whether they ever make it below $104, as I originally thought, remains an open question, but it really is too soon for anyone to declare victory at 13 days.
$200 just reflects reality today. Nothing more, nothing less, and is the exact correct input for the calculation to determine what an unopened package is worth.
@jwitten said:
I hate to break it to you. A random guy on a coin forum doesn’t determine the price/value. The market does.
True, to a point. The market determines price/value of the contents of the box. The box is then nothing more or less than the sum of its parts.
If the market then assigns an unrelated price/value to a sealed box, that is nothing more than a sign of its inefficiency, or at least a few uninformed people not understanding how to calculate value. That absolutely HAS to correct over time, as sellers who know what they are doing will take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity.
So maybe don't place so much blind faith in what a few dopes on eBay do, when there are external data points evidencing value, and a simple math formula to put it all together. Similarly, a Congressperson saying "they" control the weather does not make it so, just because it is said, and then repeated.
The sealed box is still worth $291 today. Not what an uninformed person pays on eBay. And, "they" don't control the weather.
@jwitten said:
Everyone else is wrong. Period. If and when the market lines up to his price, you’ll see. But even if it never aligns up to his price in your lifetime, he will still be right eventually. You’ll just be dead before it happens. But no matter what, he’s right. 100%. (Am I doing this right?)
Implicitly, he's already admitted he was wrong. He originally said these weren't worth the $104 Mint cost. However, he calculated their value as $200 in his own little calculation. [Not that he'll ever acknowledge that. ]
Not quite true. ****They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary. **** Beyond that, there is no denying the non-privys are going for around $200 today.
It's true that I never expected that, so anyone who bought them for a two week flip was right and I was wrong. (Does that count as an acknowledgement? Unlike some, I have zero problem admitting when I am wrong.)
Beyond that, the trend does now seem to be down, and I very seriously doubt they will level off or go up from here. Whether they ever make it below $104, as I originally thought, remains an open question, but it really is too soon for anyone to declare victory at 13 days.
$200 just reflects reality today. Nothing more, nothing less, and is the exact correct input for the calculation to determine what an unopened package is worth.
“They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary”
@jwitten said:
Everyone else is wrong. Period. If and when the market lines up to his price, you’ll see. But even if it never aligns up to his price in your lifetime, he will still be right eventually. You’ll just be dead before it happens. But no matter what, he’s right. 100%. (Am I doing this right?)
Implicitly, he's already admitted he was wrong. He originally said these weren't worth the $104 Mint cost. However, he calculated their value as $200 in his own little calculation. [Not that he'll ever acknowledge that. ]
Not quite true. ****They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary. **** Beyond that, there is no denying the non-privys are going for around $200 today.
It's true that I never expected that, so anyone who bought them for a two week flip was right and I was wrong. (Does that count as an acknowledgement? Unlike some, I have zero problem admitting when I am wrong.)
Beyond that, the trend does now seem to be down, and I very seriously doubt they will level off or go up from here. Whether they ever make it below $104, as I originally thought, remains an open question, but it really is too soon for anyone to declare victory at 13 days.
$200 just reflects reality today. Nothing more, nothing less, and is the exact correct input for the calculation to determine what an unopened package is worth.
“They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary”
@jwitten said:
I hate to break it to you. A random guy on a coin forum doesn’t determine the price/value. The market does.
True, to a point. The market determines price/value of the contents of the box. The box is then nothing more or less than the sum of its parts.
If the market then assigns an unrelated price/value to a sealed box, that is nothing more than a sign of its inefficiency, or at least a few uninformed people not understanding how to calculate value. That absolutely HAS to correct over time, as sellers who know what they are doing will take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity.
So maybe don't place so much blind faith in what a few dopes on eBay do, when there are external data points evidencing value, and a simple math formula to put it all together. Similarly, a Congressperson saying "they" control the weather does not make it so, just because it is said, and then repeated.
The sealed box is still worth $291 today. Not what an uninformed person pays on eBay. And, "they" don't control the weather.
Once again, bids from reputable dealers are currently over $300.
Desirable coins, Hermes purses, a Picasso, and a bottle of Opus One are all worth what the market will support. People pay far more than the intrinsic value or utility would suggest. That doesn’t make the buyers stupid or irrational - it’s simply supply and demand at a given point of time.
What is the intrinsic value of any coin? It’s face value or precious metal value. Yet here most of us are paying far more to purchase and enjoy our collections. Non-collectors often call us irrational. I’m going to keep collecting anyway because it’s fun.
@jwitten said:
Everyone else is wrong. Period. If and when the market lines up to his price, you’ll see. But even if it never aligns up to his price in your lifetime, he will still be right eventually. You’ll just be dead before it happens. But no matter what, he’s right. 100%. (Am I doing this right?)
Implicitly, he's already admitted he was wrong. He originally said these weren't worth the $104 Mint cost. However, he calculated their value as $200 in his own little calculation. [Not that he'll ever acknowledge that. ]
Not quite true. ****They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary. **** Beyond that, there is no denying the non-privys are going for around $200 today.
It's true that I never expected that, so anyone who bought them for a two week flip was right and I was wrong. (Does that count as an acknowledgement? Unlike some, I have zero problem admitting when I am wrong.)
Beyond that, the trend does now seem to be down, and I very seriously doubt they will level off or go up from here. Whether they ever make it below $104, as I originally thought, remains an open question, but it really is too soon for anyone to declare victory at 13 days.
$200 just reflects reality today. Nothing more, nothing less, and is the exact correct input for the calculation to determine what an unopened package is worth.
“They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary”
Want to reconsider that statement?
No need to reconsider that statement. That statement refers to secondary market value for the non-privy medal. Which has thus far proven to be incorrect.
NEVER had anything to do with buying fresh from the Mint for $104, when 2.4 out of every 100 was going to be a privy, potentially worth thousands, and always guaranteed to be worth far more than $104. Which is precisely why it was "total BS" to place them, guaranteed, in dealers' hands.
@jwitten said:
Everyone else is wrong. Period. If and when the market lines up to his price, you’ll see. But even if it never aligns up to his price in your lifetime, he will still be right eventually. You’ll just be dead before it happens. But no matter what, he’s right. 100%. (Am I doing this right?)
Implicitly, he's already admitted he was wrong. He originally said these weren't worth the $104 Mint cost. However, he calculated their value as $200 in his own little calculation. [Not that he'll ever acknowledge that. ]
Not quite true. ****They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary. **** Beyond that, there is no denying the non-privys are going for around $200 today.
It's true that I never expected that, so anyone who bought them for a two week flip was right and I was wrong. (Does that count as an acknowledgement? Unlike some, I have zero problem admitting when I am wrong.)
Beyond that, the trend does now seem to be down, and I very seriously doubt they will level off or go up from here. Whether they ever make it below $104, as I originally thought, remains an open question, but it really is too soon for anyone to declare victory at 13 days.
$200 just reflects reality today. Nothing more, nothing less, and is the exact correct input for the calculation to determine what an unopened package is worth.
“They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary”
Want to reconsider that statement?
Also, we are barely halfway to a month out, and the non-privys are already coming down. Maybe hold off on taking your victory lap for another two weeks or so. I'll admit I was wrong if they are anywhere near $200 then. Will you be as anxious to dig up this old post if they are not?
You said the only buyer at $104 for a non privy coin would be the mint buying these back, in the form of a return. You are wrong. Period. End of story.
@jwitten said:
Everyone else is wrong. Period. If and when the market lines up to his price, you’ll see. But even if it never aligns up to his price in your lifetime, he will still be right eventually. You’ll just be dead before it happens. But no matter what, he’s right. 100%. (Am I doing this right?)
Implicitly, he's already admitted he was wrong. He originally said these weren't worth the $104 Mint cost. However, he calculated their value as $200 in his own little calculation. [Not that he'll ever acknowledge that. ]
Not quite true. ****They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary. **** Beyond that, there is no denying the non-privys are going for around $200 today.
It's true that I never expected that, so anyone who bought them for a two week flip was right and I was wrong. (Does that count as an acknowledgement? Unlike some, I have zero problem admitting when I am wrong.)
Beyond that, the trend does now seem to be down, and I very seriously doubt they will level off or go up from here. Whether they ever make it below $104, as I originally thought, remains an open question, but it really is too soon for anyone to declare victory at 13 days.
$200 just reflects reality today. Nothing more, nothing less, and is the exact correct input for the calculation to determine what an unopened package is worth.
“They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary”
Want to reconsider that statement?
Also, we are barely halfway to a month out, and the non-privys are already coming down. Maybe hold off on taking your victory lap for another two weeks or so. I'll admit I was wrong if they are anywhere near $200 then. Will you be as anxious to dig up this old post if they are not?
@jwitten said:
You said the only buyer at $104 for a non privy coin would be the mint buying these back, in the form of a return. You are wrong. Period. End of story.
@jwitten said:
Everyone else is wrong. Period. If and when the market lines up to his price, you’ll see. But even if it never aligns up to his price in your lifetime, he will still be right eventually. You’ll just be dead before it happens. But no matter what, he’s right. 100%. (Am I doing this right?)
Implicitly, he's already admitted he was wrong. He originally said these weren't worth the $104 Mint cost. However, he calculated their value as $200 in his own little calculation. [Not that he'll ever acknowledge that. ]
Not quite true. ****They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary. **** Beyond that, there is no denying the non-privys are going for around $200 today.
It's true that I never expected that, so anyone who bought them for a two week flip was right and I was wrong. (Does that count as an acknowledgement? Unlike some, I have zero problem admitting when I am wrong.)
Beyond that, the trend does now seem to be down, and I very seriously doubt they will level off or go up from here. Whether they ever make it below $104, as I originally thought, remains an open question, but it really is too soon for anyone to declare victory at 13 days.
$200 just reflects reality today. Nothing more, nothing less, and is the exact correct input for the calculation to determine what an unopened package is worth.
“They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary”
Want to reconsider that statement?
Also, we are barely halfway to a month out, and the non-privys are already coming down. Maybe hold off on taking your victory lap for another two weeks or so. I'll admit I was wrong if they are anywhere near $200 then. Will you be as anxious to dig up this old post if they are not?
Yes, I was wrong. At the time, I did not realize around half the mintage would be going to dealers without return privileges, and I thought the Mint would get slammed with returns from retail playing the lottery once the HHL was lifted.
My bad -- the Mint did solve the potential return problem. And, these things are still selling for a premium two weeks out. Likely because dealers are still getting them graded. Probably never going to get all the way down to $70 as I thought.
But, I honestly do think it is too soon for you, or anyone else, to be taking a victory lap on Day 13, with them peaking at around $230 and now pretty solidly below $200, and going lower. I still maintain they would not have sold out without the lottery, and that still means there are a lot more floating around than there would be otherwise.
Dealers are going to be sitting on them indefinitely, or they are going to be hitting the market at some point. TBD, but $104 seems high for an ounce of silver with 75K of them. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it, as I just did with the returns.
But, I honestly do think it is too soon for you, or anyone else, to be taking a victory lap on Day 13, with them peaking at around $230 and now pretty solidly below $200, and going lower. I still maintain they would not have sold out without the lottery, and that still means there are a lot more floating around than there would be otherwise.”
The people that paid $230 could have bought at same time for around $200. The bulk has always been offered and auctioned around $200 as they still are. Your perception of $230 now down to “solidly below $200” is not viewing the overall picture.
But, I honestly do think it is too soon for you, or anyone else, to be taking a victory lap on Day 13, with them peaking at around $230 and now pretty solidly below $200, and going lower. I still maintain they would not have sold out without the lottery, and that still means there are a lot more floating around than there would be otherwise.”
The people that paid $230 could have bought at same time for around $200. The bulk has always been offered and auctioned around $200 as they still are. Your perception of $230 now down to “solidly below $200” is not viewing the overall picture.
Not so sure about that. Completed OGP sales today range from $138-230. Last Monday that range was $180-250, with a ton of sealed mailers selling as well, at prices obviously substantially above that.
Completed sales volume is way down, and transaction prices are down substantially. In only one week, less than two weeks from release. Maybe you do not see the "overall picture," but it is exceedingly clear to me. Let's see where we are next Monday, and the Monday after that.
People were also crowing about locking in $125 for MS70 2024 Morgan Dollars ahead of the $15 Mint price increase from $76 to $91 3 short months ago. A MS 70 CACG First Delivery sold today for $86, shipping included.
Still think the overall picture for these is in doubt? Because, to me, the way they were distributed, and the early results, makes the "overall picture" very clear. Yes, "solidly below" $200, and heading lower. An outlier or two along the way notwithstanding.
But, I honestly do think it is too soon for you, or anyone else, to be taking a victory lap on Day 13, with them peaking at around $230 and now pretty solidly below $200, and going lower. I still maintain they would not have sold out without the lottery, and that still means there by are a lot more floating around than there would be otherwise.”
The people that paid $230 could have bought at same time for around $200. The bulk has always been offered and auctioned around $200 as they still are. Your perception of $230 now down to “solidly below $200” is not viewing the overall picture.
Not so sure about that. Completed OGP sales today range from $138-230. Last Monday that range was $180-250, with a ton of sealed mailers selling as well, at prices obviously substantially above that.
Completed sales volume is way down, and transaction prices are down substantially. In only one week, less than two weeks from release. Maybe you do not see the "overall picture," but it is exceedingly clear to me. Let's see where we are next Monday, and the Monday after that.
People were also crowing about locking in $125 for MS70 2024 Morgan Dollars ahead of the $15 Mint price increase from $76 to $91 3 short months ago. A MS 70 CACG First Delivery sold today for $86, shipping included.
Still think the overall picture for these is in doubt? Because, to me, the way they were distributed, and the early results, makes the "overall picture" very clear. Yes, "solidly below" $200, and heading lower. An outlier or two along the way notwithstanding.
I swear… any dialog with you represents the nature I would expect from a person believing world is flat.
Here is your clear picture. People are still paying over $200 today despite the ability to buy under $200. Auctions slip through lower just as people chase price above where they can lift one. Your hypothetical $230 peak is still matched by a multiple $228-$229 sales over past 48 hours. Ironically plenty of $200 offers to be lifted. You cant suggest $230 as a past peak when people for what ever reason are still paying it.
$200-$180 range is more appropriate which has been consistent.
It is not up to me to prove you wrong and anyone can look back through 25 pages and see for themselves the absolute error in judgement over and over. It is insane.
You misjudged this from the beginning and continue to do so. Your opinion on gold version already carries no weight.
But, I honestly do think it is too soon for you, or anyone else, to be taking a victory lap on Day 13, with them peaking at around $230 and now pretty solidly below $200, and going lower. I still maintain they would not have sold out without the lottery, and that still means there by are a lot more floating around than there would be otherwise.”
The people that paid $230 could have bought at same time for around $200. The bulk has always been offered and auctioned around $200 as they still are. Your perception of $230 now down to “solidly below $200” is not viewing the overall picture.
Not so sure about that. Completed OGP sales today range from $138-230. Last Monday that range was $180-250, with a ton of sealed mailers selling as well, at prices obviously substantially above that.
Completed sales volume is way down, and transaction prices are down substantially. In only one week, less than two weeks from release. Maybe you do not see the "overall picture," but it is exceedingly clear to me. Let's see where we are next Monday, and the Monday after that.
People were also crowing about locking in $125 for MS70 2024 Morgan Dollars ahead of the $15 Mint price increase from $76 to $91 3 short months ago. A MS 70 CACG First Delivery sold today for $86, shipping included.
Still think the overall picture for these is in doubt? Because, to me, the way they were distributed, and the early results, makes the "overall picture" very clear. Yes, "solidly below" $200, and heading lower. An outlier or two along the way notwithstanding.
I swear… any dialog with you represents the nature I would expect from a person believing world is flat.
Here is your clear picture. People are still paying over $200 today despite the ability to buy under $200. Auctions slip through lower just as people chase price above where they can lift one. Your hypothetical $230 peak is still matched by a multiple $228-$229 sales over past 48 hours. Ironically plenty of $200 offers to be lifted. You cant suggest $230 as a past peak when people for what ever reason are still paying it.
$200-$180 range is more appropriate which has been consistent.
It is not up to me to prove you wrong and anyone can look back through 25 pages and see for themselves the absolute error in judgement over and over. It is insane.
You misjudged this from the beginning and continue to do so. Your opinion on gold version already carries no weight.
That's fine. As I said before, no one is paying for my opinion, and is therefore certainly entitled to give it as much or as little weight as they see fit. I swear I do not get offended one way or the other, and post for myself and for anyone who thinks I have something to offer. Everyone else is free to ignore, mock, discount, whatever. It's all good.
That out of the way, no the world is not flat, but the gold is not going to sell out, and the silvers without privys are going to continue going down in value, as they have been since shortly after they first hit eBay. $180-200 won't be the range in two weeks. Bookmark this and come back to it. I'll be sure to hold my breath waiting for an apology. 😀
Nothing has been misjudged, other than the fact that so many went directly to dealers that retail returns have not been an issue. Both due to the sheer number not placed into retail hands, and due to the fact that the secondary market has held up through the return window to eliminate the economics of returns.
I failed to appreciate that dealers would be able to gobble up whatever was left, in quantity, the second the HHL was lifted. Which they did, due to the embedded lottery ticket, with the guaranteed windfall per 100 purchased. As a result, they sold out for the rest of us in less than 2 minutes, and therefore never become readily available from the Mint at $104, and apparently will not be, since those dealer bulk orders are not subject to return after being stripped of the medals with the privys.
But that DOES mean there is an overhang from dealers that will hit the market in the near future, since there is absolutely no way 73,206 have already been placed into collector hands, at prices ranging from $104 to $600+, depending on the slab. Are you also holding your breath waiting for another 25-34K to be made available from the Mint, or did I misjudge that as well?
@MsMorrisine said:
the back and forth is insane, as is 20 pages of it
Agreed
I do believe if they planed to sell more they would be back ordered
If they were almost out on day 2 why lift the HHL?
It is possible that they only minted half or a little more to test the waters and released all the privy coins with that half. They may feel stuck without more privy’s to salt the orders and know with out the lotto they won’t sell.
When it all washes out I’m with NJcoin the medals will sell for less than issue.
75000 is a lot for a medal 40k maybe the price will hold above issue.
The one thing for certain is time will tell. Who cares who’s right or wrong. Most people that are commenting here put their money where the mouth was
Except me, didn’t play cuz it’s a medal
I’d love a gold one just not at 1k over spot, at all time highs. Just won’t do it.
@MsMorrisine said:
the back and forth is insane, as is 20 pages of it
Agreed
I do believe if they planed to sell more they would be back ordered
If they were almost out on day 2 why lift the HHL?
It is possible that they only minted half or a little more to test the waters and released all the privy coins with that half. They may feel stuck without more privy’s to salt the orders and know with out the lotto they won’t sell.
When it all washes out I’m with NJcoin the medals will sell for less than issue.
75000 is a lot for a medal 40k maybe the price will hold above issue.
The one thing for certain is time will tell. Who cares who’s right or wrong. Most people that are commenting here put their money where the mouth was
Except me, didn’t play cuz it’s a medal
I’d love a gold one just not at 1k over spot, at all time highs. Just won’t do it.
Martin
I agree with everything you said, with one exception. You are taking last week's sales report as the gospel.
Those missing medals were sold to dealers in bulk on Day 2, who gobbled them up to get their hands on the privys, and will show up in a future sales report. Absolutely no reason to "test the waters" when they already artificially engineered a sellout with the lottery.
@NJCoin
I’m Not taking the mint numbers for gospel. I’m not sure how many they made. I’m leaning they made the whole run of 75k. And the only reason I’m thinking that is they are not on back order.
Some times it took a year or more to find out what the total mintage was on some issues.
I’m honestly glad the medal is sharp
Looking. It is, was a good issue even better if it was a real dollar
They could have sold a quarter million of them and left the privy off them completely
Make
The gold one a medal charge a
Grand over spot on sell less
Than a thousand of them heck maybe less than 500.🤷
@Martin said: @NJCoin
I’m Not taking the mint numbers for gospel. I’m not sure how many they made. I’m leaning they made the whole run of 75k. And the only reason I’m thinking that is they are not on back order.
Some times it took a year or more to find out what the total mintage was on some issues.
I’m honestly glad the medal is sharp
Looking. It is, was a good issue even better if it was a real dollar
They could have sold a quarter million of them and left the privy off them completely
Make
The gold one a medal charge a
Grand over spot on sell less
Than a thousand of them heck maybe less than 500.🤷
Martin
I like what you're saying, but I honestly can't agree. I know some folks are hung up on medal vs. coin. Including, apparently, you. But not me.
To me the non circulating one troy ounce silver numismatic item is honestly the same, monetized or not. I think the Mint is shooting itself in the foot by not getting authorization to make them coins rather than medals for those who care, but I really don't think it makes a huge difference. That said, it would cost them nothing and make people like you happy, so I just don't see what the issue is for them.
The proof to me is that they were able to sell 75K medals in 24 hours because they attached a lottery ticket to them. The fact that they weren't coins didn't hurt them at all.
And no, they wouldn't have sold 250K coins at $104 any more than they sell 200K Morgan and Peace Dollars at $91 or $95. If they brought the price down to a more reasonable $75-80, they'd easily sell 250K. Medals or coins.
The same goes in reverse for the gold coins. At a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold, they aren't going to sell 17,500, and the fact that they are coins rather than medals isn't going to make a bit of difference. If they lowered the price, or the mintage, it would be a different story. And again, the fact that it is or isn't monetized at $1 would not impact sales or value, one way or the other.
@MsMorrisine said:
the back and forth is insane, as is 20 pages of it
Agreed
I do believe if they planed to sell more they would be back ordered
If they were almost out on day 2 why lift the HHL?
It is possible that they only minted half or a little more to test the waters and released all the privy coins with that half. They may feel stuck without more privy’s to salt the orders and know with out the lotto they won’t sell.
When it all washes out I’m with NJcoin the medals will sell for less than issue.
75000 is a lot for a medal 40k maybe the price will hold above issue.
The one thing for certain is time will tell. Who cares who’s right or wrong. Most people that are commenting here put their money where the mouth was
Except me, didn’t play cuz it’s a medal
I’d love a gold one just not at 1k over spot, at all time highs. Just won’t do it.
@JimTyler said:
This thread was fun 20 pages ago now it’s just as tedious as a cheese 💩
I've noticed the same...so I spend less than 1/2s scrolling past certain posters who are just here to argue and try to sound smart. They are the ones jacking up post counts in this thread (and others when they get into their moods). I've stopped caring what they say as they have less intelligent posts than the mint has privy marked medals
Comments
All I know is I get anxiety everytime someone mentions VaultBox!🤪
Why not try it and see what happens, rather than just posting a snide remark that has nothing to do with anything? 😂
My point was that it doesnt matter if the seller was original purchaaser at $104 or it was secondhand at whatever the price.
All that matters is there is a chance to get a $4000 PRIVY marked coin in there.
The market will decide what that "lottery ticket" is worth. Who klnows what a sealed box or poly bag is worth? $400/$500/$600?
It's a joke. Get it? VB9? These are still hot but prices may have peaked in the last few days.
Your theory on sealed boxes is holding up. There are a lot of privies out there and the market does decide. Many people buy $100 in lottery tickets with a miniscule chance at $10k. With these there's no problem getting $200 back if yours is not a privy. Call it irrational exuberance, but when was any financial market truly rational?
my only issue with selling sealed boxes/bags on ebay is some of the "bad" reported experience of others.
the bad experience being the buyer opens the package, doesnt get the PRIVY, and returns the package as "not as described"
ebay almost 100% of the time allows the return.
i'm not saying it happens all the time - but it has happened before more than a few times and can happen again
That is exactly the point. He can keep saying that they aren't worth $400. But if people are buying at $400, they are worth $400. As you said, the market decides... and has decided.
That's why Whatnot has no returns on mystery boxes. Although I have wondered what the CC company would do if someone initiated a chargeback.
Right. And my point is that most people on this forum are smart enough to realize that paying more than $300 for a 2.4% at $4,000, and a 97.6% chance at $200, makes no sense.
I know what a sealed box is worth today. $291. That makes buying one at $104 smart, and at $350+ dumb. The "lottery ticket" is worth no more and no less than its expected value. The gamble is not knowing what you are going to get before scratching it off. Not paying more than it is worth. Because THAT is a certain loser, not a gamble.
Paying more than $291 is playing the greater fool theory. So my guess is that people on this forum saying "who knows what a sealed box is worth, $400/$500/$600?" are sellers, not buyers at those prices.
Am I wrong with respect to you?
Yes, I can keep saying they are not worth $400. Because, empirically, they are not. Markets can also be wrong, which is why they constantly adjust.
I'm not saying the privys aren't worth $4,000, or that the regular ones are not worth $200. Although those values are also subject to constant change.
But I am saying 1+1=2. Not anything different that some dopes on eBay say it equals. That's what I'm calling the greater fool theory.
.976x200=195.2, and .024x4000=96. Add them together, and you get 291.2. That's what a sealed box is worth today. Period. The fact that some dope is willing to give you $2 for 4 quarters does not mean your quarters are half dollars. It just means the buyer does not understand value. Same here.
And, again, for everyone supporting people having "fun" that makes no economic sense, who here is a buyer at $300+? If the answer is no one, I'm not wrong.
If anyone on ebay ever bought one for $300+, then you are wrong. It's not investment value. It's fun. No bet ever made in a casino has a value equal to the wager. No raffle ticket ever sold has a value equal to the cost. You still don't understand gambling. And you apparently never will. Calling people "the greater fool" shows no tolerance, no empathy, and no understanding. They made a choice about how they want to spend their entertainment dollars. Period.
I respectfully disagree. I think the buyers either don't understand economic value, or are just buying with a view towards flipping to someone else for even more. I don't think anyone derives "fun" from opening mail from the Mint.
No. No tolerance, understanding or empathy for a lack of basic math skills causing people to throw away hard earned money. Not because a regular medal isn't worth $200, or one with a privy isn't worth $4,000. But because a package containing one or the other, unopened, with a 2.4% chance at the latter, isn't worth $300.
And that's what people are paying for -- the 2.4% chance at $4,000 and the 97.6% chance at $200. How do I know this? Because there is no market on eBay, at several hundred dollars a pop, for sealed packages of total crap, where don't know exactly what they are getting, but they are getting nothing a value.
That's what's left here when you strip away the $291 of expected value -- the thrill of the break. It's why people who know what they are doing will pay $300, when they know there is a 97.4% chance of getting a $200 medal in return, with a 2.4% chance of a $4,000 one.
No one who understands value would pay more than that. If they would, they'd pay $100 for an unopened box of nothing, because they'd receive the same thrill, and the same nothing else in return for their money.
And again, as with your defense of VB, I am not interested in your theoretical defense of the anonymous rando on eBay. Are you a buyer at this price? If not, I'm not wrong. Is anyone here paying $300+ for a 2.4% shot at $4K? If not, I'm not wrong. 1+1 still equals 2, even if eBay says it equals 5.
Coins have always been worth what someone is willing to pay for them.
Tastes great. Less filling.
Tastes great. Less filling.
You’re both wrong !!! 😁😁
Apparently, the same applies to sealed mailers with who knows what inside. Even when there is formula to determine the precise economic value of what is inside. And 4 quarters are worth $2 so long as I can find someone to pay that, right?
Everyone else is wrong. Period. If and when the market lines up to his price, you’ll see. But even if it never aligns up to his price in your lifetime, he will still be right eventually. You’ll just be dead before it happens. But no matter what, he’s right. 100%. (Am I doing this right?)
Nope. You got it!! 😀
1+1 is always going to equal 2, even if someone on the internet thinks it should be 11, and then 5 other people chime in to agree with them.
Maybe the market converges to economic value, maybe "greater fools" keep buying and selling unopened packages back and forth, at ever increasing prices, until the end of time. But that will never change what the unopened package is worth. Only what people are willing to pay for an unopened package worth $291, assuming the value of the medals with and without privys never changes.
Because this is not a Beanie Baby, or a Pet Rock. This is a math problem, with a discrete, readily discernible solution. Anyone wanting the thrill of a rip could have had one, during a pre-determined 24 hour period, for $104.
This now is just people who literally do not understand the value of what is in the box. Or who do understand, and are just buying in anticipation of exploiting those who do not. No understanding, no empathy, and no other rational explanation.
Just like the missing 34K are going to show up on a sales report at some point. Not on the web at 7:30 a.m. sometime soon. And not never, with the final mintage being 41K, 50K, or anything materially below 75K. Take it to the bank. I'm right, and anyone who disagrees is wrong. 😀
But my calculation shows that a 1975 no S dime can't possibly be worth more than 10 cents... unless you are looking for a greater fool.
Implicitly, he's already admitted he was wrong. He originally said these weren't worth the $104 Mint cost. However, he calculated their value as $200 in his own little calculation. [Not that he'll ever acknowledge that. ]
That would be incorrect. As would be creating a million sealed boxes, 999,999 of which contain a 1975-S dime, with one containing the no-S version, and "calculating" the sealed boxes are worth $500 each. Because "fun," and maybe some dope bought one on eBay for that price.
In this corner.....
And in this corner....🙄
So many calculations and predictions.
Also, those bubble wrap mailers can be opened and resealed to look untouched, so I personally would avoid paying extra for any of them.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I hate to break it to you. A random guy on a coin forum doesn’t determine the price/value. The market does.
Not quite true. They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary. Beyond that, there is no denying the non-privys are going for around $200 today.
It's true that I never expected that, so anyone who bought them for a two week flip was right and I was wrong. (Does that count as an acknowledgement? Unlike some, I have zero problem admitting when I am wrong.)
Beyond that, the trend does now seem to be down, and I very seriously doubt they will level off or go up from here. Whether they ever make it below $104, as I originally thought, remains an open question, but it really is too soon for anyone to declare victory at 13 days.
$200 just reflects reality today. Nothing more, nothing less, and is the exact correct input for the calculation to determine what an unopened package is worth.
True, to a point. The market determines price/value of the contents of the box. The box is then nothing more or less than the sum of its parts.
If the market then assigns an unrelated price/value to a sealed box, that is nothing more than a sign of its inefficiency, or at least a few uninformed people not understanding how to calculate value. That absolutely HAS to correct over time, as sellers who know what they are doing will take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity.
So maybe don't place so much blind faith in what a few dopes on eBay do, when there are external data points evidencing value, and a simple math formula to put it all together. Similarly, a Congressperson saying "they" control the weather does not make it so, just because it is said, and then repeated.
The sealed box is still worth $291 today. Not what an uninformed person pays on eBay. And, "they" don't control the weather.
“They were ALWAYS a winner at $104, due to the embedded lottery ticket, and I NEVER said anything to the contrary”
Want to reconsider that statement?
One has to wonder what they would do if this forum ever shuts down🤔
I was just about to go dig up his old posts saying how bad of a deal these were at $104. Thanks for saving me the work! 😂
Once again, bids from reputable dealers are currently over $300.
Desirable coins, Hermes purses, a Picasso, and a bottle of Opus One are all worth what the market will support. People pay far more than the intrinsic value or utility would suggest. That doesn’t make the buyers stupid or irrational - it’s simply supply and demand at a given point of time.
What is the intrinsic value of any coin? It’s face value or precious metal value. Yet here most of us are paying far more to purchase and enjoy our collections. Non-collectors often call us irrational. I’m going to keep collecting anyway because it’s fun.
Tossed out $70 figure too…
But of course we will have to wait until the mint is flooded with returns.
No need to reconsider that statement. That statement refers to secondary market value for the non-privy medal. Which has thus far proven to be incorrect.
NEVER had anything to do with buying fresh from the Mint for $104, when 2.4 out of every 100 was going to be a privy, potentially worth thousands, and always guaranteed to be worth far more than $104. Which is precisely why it was "total BS" to place them, guaranteed, in dealers' hands.
Also, we are barely halfway to a month out, and the non-privys are already coming down. Maybe hold off on taking your victory lap for another two weeks or so. I'll admit I was wrong if they are anywhere near $200 then. Will you be as anxious to dig up this old post if they are not?
You said the only buyer at $104 for a non privy coin would be the mint buying these back, in the form of a return. You are wrong. Period. End of story.
Yes, I was wrong. At the time, I did not realize around half the mintage would be going to dealers without return privileges, and I thought the Mint would get slammed with returns from retail playing the lottery once the HHL was lifted.
My bad -- the Mint did solve the potential return problem. And, these things are still selling for a premium two weeks out. Likely because dealers are still getting them graded. Probably never going to get all the way down to $70 as I thought.
But, I honestly do think it is too soon for you, or anyone else, to be taking a victory lap on Day 13, with them peaking at around $230 and now pretty solidly below $200, and going lower. I still maintain they would not have sold out without the lottery, and that still means there are a lot more floating around than there would be otherwise.
Dealers are going to be sitting on them indefinitely, or they are going to be hitting the market at some point. TBD, but $104 seems high for an ounce of silver with 75K of them. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it, as I just did with the returns.
This thread was fun 20 pages ago now it’s just as tedious as a cheese 💩
That's why there is no law that makes you click on it to be allowed to access the rest of the forum. Your keyboard, your choice.
But clearly, like @WQuarterFreddie, you are feeling a little left out, so had to weigh in. I greatly appreciate it. 😀
I skim over yours
The people that paid $230 could have bought at same time for around $200. The bulk has always been offered and auctioned around $200 as they still are. Your perception of $230 now down to “solidly below $200” is not viewing the overall picture.
As long as you're reading, and not misunderstanding or mischaracterizing, it's all good!!
Not so sure about that. Completed OGP sales today range from $138-230. Last Monday that range was $180-250, with a ton of sealed mailers selling as well, at prices obviously substantially above that.
Completed sales volume is way down, and transaction prices are down substantially. In only one week, less than two weeks from release. Maybe you do not see the "overall picture," but it is exceedingly clear to me. Let's see where we are next Monday, and the Monday after that.
People were also crowing about locking in $125 for MS70 2024 Morgan Dollars ahead of the $15 Mint price increase from $76 to $91 3 short months ago. A MS 70 CACG First Delivery sold today for $86, shipping included.
Still think the overall picture for these is in doubt? Because, to me, the way they were distributed, and the early results, makes the "overall picture" very clear. Yes, "solidly below" $200, and heading lower. An outlier or two along the way notwithstanding.
I swear… any dialog with you represents the nature I would expect from a person believing world is flat.
Here is your clear picture. People are still paying over $200 today despite the ability to buy under $200. Auctions slip through lower just as people chase price above where they can lift one. Your hypothetical $230 peak is still matched by a multiple $228-$229 sales over past 48 hours. Ironically plenty of $200 offers to be lifted. You cant suggest $230 as a past peak when people for what ever reason are still paying it.
$200-$180 range is more appropriate which has been consistent.
It is not up to me to prove you wrong and anyone can look back through 25 pages and see for themselves the absolute error in judgement over and over. It is insane.
You misjudged this from the beginning and continue to do so. Your opinion on gold version already carries no weight.
the back and forth is insane, as is 20 pages of it
That's fine. As I said before, no one is paying for my opinion, and is therefore certainly entitled to give it as much or as little weight as they see fit. I swear I do not get offended one way or the other, and post for myself and for anyone who thinks I have something to offer. Everyone else is free to ignore, mock, discount, whatever. It's all good.
That out of the way, no the world is not flat, but the gold is not going to sell out, and the silvers without privys are going to continue going down in value, as they have been since shortly after they first hit eBay. $180-200 won't be the range in two weeks. Bookmark this and come back to it. I'll be sure to hold my breath waiting for an apology. 😀
Nothing has been misjudged, other than the fact that so many went directly to dealers that retail returns have not been an issue. Both due to the sheer number not placed into retail hands, and due to the fact that the secondary market has held up through the return window to eliminate the economics of returns.
I failed to appreciate that dealers would be able to gobble up whatever was left, in quantity, the second the HHL was lifted. Which they did, due to the embedded lottery ticket, with the guaranteed windfall per 100 purchased. As a result, they sold out for the rest of us in less than 2 minutes, and therefore never become readily available from the Mint at $104, and apparently will not be, since those dealer bulk orders are not subject to return after being stripped of the medals with the privys.
But that DOES mean there is an overhang from dealers that will hit the market in the near future, since there is absolutely no way 73,206 have already been placed into collector hands, at prices ranging from $104 to $600+, depending on the slab. Are you also holding your breath waiting for another 25-34K to be made available from the Mint, or did I misjudge that as well?
Agreed
I do believe if they planed to sell more they would be back ordered
If they were almost out on day 2 why lift the HHL?
It is possible that they only minted half or a little more to test the waters and released all the privy coins with that half. They may feel stuck without more privy’s to salt the orders and know with out the lotto they won’t sell.
When it all washes out I’m with NJcoin the medals will sell for less than issue.
75000 is a lot for a medal 40k maybe the price will hold above issue.
The one thing for certain is time will tell. Who cares who’s right or wrong. Most people that are commenting here put their money where the mouth was
Except me, didn’t play cuz it’s a medal
I’d love a gold one just not at 1k over spot, at all time highs. Just won’t do it.
Martin
I agree with everything you said, with one exception. You are taking last week's sales report as the gospel.
Those missing medals were sold to dealers in bulk on Day 2, who gobbled them up to get their hands on the privys, and will show up in a future sales report. Absolutely no reason to "test the waters" when they already artificially engineered a sellout with the lottery.
@NJCoin
I’m Not taking the mint numbers for gospel. I’m not sure how many they made. I’m leaning they made the whole run of 75k. And the only reason I’m thinking that is they are not on back order.
Some times it took a year or more to find out what the total mintage was on some issues.
I’m honestly glad the medal is sharp
Looking. It is, was a good issue even better if it was a real dollar
They could have sold a quarter million of them and left the privy off them completely
Make
The gold one a medal charge a
Grand over spot on sell less
Than a thousand of them heck maybe less than 500.🤷
Martin
I like what you're saying, but I honestly can't agree. I know some folks are hung up on medal vs. coin. Including, apparently, you. But not me.
To me the non circulating one troy ounce silver numismatic item is honestly the same, monetized or not. I think the Mint is shooting itself in the foot by not getting authorization to make them coins rather than medals for those who care, but I really don't think it makes a huge difference. That said, it would cost them nothing and make people like you happy, so I just don't see what the issue is for them.
The proof to me is that they were able to sell 75K medals in 24 hours because they attached a lottery ticket to them. The fact that they weren't coins didn't hurt them at all.
And no, they wouldn't have sold 250K coins at $104 any more than they sell 200K Morgan and Peace Dollars at $91 or $95. If they brought the price down to a more reasonable $75-80, they'd easily sell 250K. Medals or coins.
The same goes in reverse for the gold coins. At a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold, they aren't going to sell 17,500, and the fact that they are coins rather than medals isn't going to make a bit of difference. If they lowered the price, or the mintage, it would be a different story. And again, the fact that it is or isn't monetized at $1 would not impact sales or value, one way or the other.
They almost always lift HHL after 24 hours.
I've noticed the same...so I spend less than 1/2s scrolling past certain posters who are just here to argue and try to sound smart. They are the ones jacking up post counts in this thread (and others when they get into their moods). I've stopped caring what they say as they have less intelligent posts than the mint has privy marked medals
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Flipped this morning but not for long.
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