The 2024 date refers to the anniversary date. I would not expect them to change that. The US Mint medals still carry the 1789 date, after all.
>
Huh? They are dated 2024 because 1794 plus 230 gets us 2024. Medals struck next year would have to be dated 2025 to remain a 230th anniversary for the 1795 coin.
They could do 230th all the way to the 1804 design in 2034.
Next year would be 230th anniversary of both flowing hair and draped bust. Two medals dated 2025.
2026 would only have draped bust. 2028 reverse would switch to heraldic eagle.
PS You are correct they could strike the 25K they didn't do next year and remain the 230th anniversary of the 1794 coin, but it is much better to have this a yearly medal as I outline above.
"Figures place the medal, which celebrates the anniversary of the first dollar coin issued by the U.S. federal government, at a combined total of 49,925 — about two-thirds of the announced 75,000 mintage. Breaking it down, 40,999 were sold individually, while 8,926 went through the Mint’s Authorized Bulk Purchase Program (ABPP)."
“The Mint may, at any time, add new coin programs to the Numismatic Bulk Purchase Program as they are approved and made available.”
So, 17.9% of the current mintages stated went to ABPPand maybe bulk NBPP to exceed the 10%. Or 11.9% of the future 75,000 total?
@HalfDime said:
The mint is warming up the presses for the 2025 coins. They also have to have the packaging made. This is not the time to do another 30k.
For the umpteenth time, there is no missing 30K. They have already been made. And sold. Believe it or not.
According to the article, they only did 50k. So there is a missing 25k.
The 2024 date refers to the anniversary date. I would not expect them to change that. The US Mint medals still carry the 1789 date, after all.
>
Huh? They are dated 2024 because 1794 plus 230 gets us 2024. Medals struck next year would have to be dated 2025 to remain a 230th anniversary for the 1795 coin.
They could do 230th all the way to the 1804 design in 2034.
Next year would be 230th anniversary of both flowing hair and draped bust. Two medals dated 2025.
2026 would only have draped bust. 2028 reverse would switch to heraldic eagle.
PS You are correct they could strike the 25K they didn't do next year and remain the 230th anniversary of the 1794 coin, but it is much better to have this a yearly medal as I outline above.
The design was introduced in 1794. It is unlikely that they would create new tooling to create a new issue. Look at their entire medal catalog. They don't ever change the dates. If they did, it would be a new medal and not part of the 75,000
@Goldminers said:
Figures place the medal, which celebrates the anniversary of the first dollar coin issued by the U.S. federal government, at a combined total of 49,925 — about two-thirds of the announced 75,000 mintage. Breaking it down, 40,999 were sold individually, while 8,926 went through the Mint’s Authorized Bulk Purchase Program (ABPP).
“The Mint may, at any time, add new coin programs to the Numismatic Bulk Purchase Program as they are approved and made available.”
So, 17.9% of the current mintages stated went to ABPP and maybe bulk to exceed the 10%. Or 11.9% of the future total?
"Bulk" is not a separate category. They do not reserve coins for the bulk buyers. They buy from the same inventory you do. They just get a 5 or 10% discount and can order in larger multiples ONLY AFTER THE HHL is lifted.
The design was introduced in 1794. It is unlikely that they would create new tooling to create a new issue. Look at their entire medal catalog. They don't ever change the dates.
>
The US Mint has a youtube video that shows them doing this, and it is the first laser engraved medal/coin ever done by the US Mint. I doubt it is that hard to change the 4 to a 5 since they changed the 2024 to shift the date like the original.
@Goldminers said:
Figures place the medal, which celebrates the anniversary of the first dollar coin issued by the U.S. federal government, at a combined total of 49,925 — about two-thirds of the announced 75,000 mintage. Breaking it down, 40,999 were sold individually, while 8,926 went through the Mint’s Authorized Bulk Purchase Program (ABPP).
“The Mint may, at any time, add new coin programs to the Numismatic Bulk Purchase Program as they are approved and made available.”
So, 17.9% of the current mintages stated went to ABPP and maybe bulk to exceed the 10%. Or 11.9% of the future total?
"Bulk" is not a separate category. They do not reserve coins for the bulk buyers. They buy from the same inventory you do. They just get a 5 or 10% discount and can order in larger multiples ONLY AFTER THE HHL is lifted.
Fine, I edited and struck my bulk comment.
But do we believe all the Mint statements? Is 10% the same as 11.9% or 17.9%? I don't think so. See below:
ABBP applicants must be active members in the Mint’s existing Numismatic Bulk Purchase Program (NBPP) in good standing for at least two years, have a two-year revenue average with the NBPP of at least $500,000 annually, and have a history of full compliance with the Mint’s excessive returns policy.
“This new program will help to enhance the distribution of numismatic Mint products as they go on sale, expanding availability of our products by utilizing well-vetted business partners that have long-term relationships with the Mint’s Numismatic Programs,” according to Mint officials. “Not all Mint products will be offered through this program, and no more than 10 percent of products with limited quantities will be distributed under this program."
@Goldminers said:
Figures place the medal, which celebrates the anniversary of the first dollar coin issued by the U.S. federal government, at a combined total of 49,925 — about two-thirds of the announced 75,000 mintage. Breaking it down, 40,999 were sold individually, while 8,926 went through the Mint’s Authorized Bulk Purchase Program (ABPP).
“The Mint may, at any time, add new coin programs to the Numismatic Bulk Purchase Program as they are approved and made available.”
So, 17.9% of the current mintages stated went to ABPP and maybe bulk to exceed the 10%. Or 11.9% of the future total?
"Bulk" is not a separate category. They do not reserve coins for the bulk buyers. They buy from the same inventory you do. They just get a 5 or 10% discount and can order in larger multiples ONLY AFTER THE HHL is lifted.
Fine, I struck the bulk comment.
But do we believe all the Mint statements? Is 10% the same as 11.9% or 17.9%? I don't think so.
The original program specified 10%. I do not know what the limits are on individual items. I also don't know if medals are different.
Bottom line is, I don't think we know if they made 75,000 or 50,000. We do know the official sales numbers to ABPP and from the website. Since the only other sales channel in aware of is the Mint shops, it seems unlikely that there are 25,000 unaccounted for sales. But it is possible, we'll just have to wait and see.
The design was introduced in 1794. It is unlikely that they would create new tooling to create a new issue. Look at their entire medal catalog. They don't ever change the dates.
>
The US Mint has a youtube video that shows them doing this, and it is the first laser engraved medal/coin ever done by the US Mint. I doubt it is that hard to change the 4 to a 5 since they changed the 2024 to shift the date like the original.
I didn't say it couldn't be done. They do it every year on circulating coins. But there is a cost to doing it and zero cost to using the existing filling to make the other 25,000 - assuming there is another 25,000. Mint medals generally hands low sales numbers and it is not normal for the Mint to create annual series. Could they? Yes. Are they likely to? No.
@jmlanzaf - Thanks for the update and links to the articles.
I heard the rumor of the 50,000 production run. If there is time left, and based on the popularity of the medal, the USM could make more available (i.e. the remaining 25,000)
@coiner said: @jmlanzaf - Thanks for the update and links to the articles.
I heard the rumor of the 50,000 production run. If there is time left, and based on the popularity of the medal, the USM could make more available (i.e. the remaining 25,000)
I heard a rumor on the PCGS forum that they made 75,000 and secretly sold 25,000 of them. Shhh... pass it on...
I see the flowing hair gold will be $3,740 if gold is between $2,700-2,749.99, which is $140 more than the gold eagle proof at $3,600 according to the new 2024 pricing grid.
@coiner said: @jmlanzaf - Thanks for the update and links to the articles.
I heard the rumor of the 50,000 production run. If there is time left, and based on the popularity of the medal, the USM could make more available (i.e. the remaining 25,000)
I heard a rumor on the PCGS forum that they made 75,000 and secretly sold 25,000 of them. Shhh... pass it on...
Not just any rumor. From well known dealers. and Guess what! it was true.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
Keep holding your breath. Linus also can't believe the Great Pumpkin hasn't yet appeared after all these years. Maybe you want to join him next Thursday night in the Pumpkin Patch, with your laptop and a strong wifi signal, waiting for the Great Pumpkin to bring those missing 34,000 medals to all the good boys and girls. 🤣
If not, just wait for an updated sales report to reflect the 34,000 that are already gone, gone, gone. Just PLEASE stop this short production run nonsense. It's not a thing.
Yes, the Mint does not always make the maximum mintage up front, when they do not expect a sellout. For example, I am quite sure they do not have 500K Harriett Tubman Proof Half Dollars sitting in a warehouse waiting for you to buy them.
But they NEVER stop taking orders just because they run out of stock, until the maximum mintage is sold. That is EXACTLY what Back Orders are for. Did not happen here because they knew, with the privys, that these would sell out. And they did. Period. They're gone, less whatever pops up for a few seconds each morning.
It's simply not true. 2017 EU sets were unavailable for months. They never minted the remainder and went straight to Sold Out about 10,000 short of the maximum mintage. For optional issues like commemoratives, they only Mint them if they have TIME as well as demand. They do not always go to backorder, especially later in the year as there are coin items that have to be done before the calendar turns.
Please forgive me, because I don't remember this. But, are you REALLY comparing something with a 225K maximum mintage, that did not instantly sell out, where the Mint ultimately bailed after ONLY making 215K of them, with this?
By the way, if you are trying to say that, it's not true. A little Googling reveals that they DID sell 225K, and that later returns brought the final number down to whatever number you are referring to by the time the Mint finally pulled them from the catalog. Nice try though.
I'm very familiar with the 2017 EU sets. I sold hundreds of them. My point was that, contrary to your assertion, backorder is not automatic for sets that are not sold out. It happened with the EU sets i mentioned as well as the platinum coins mentioned by another. I have no idea what the exact situation is here, but you made an INCORRECT affirmative assertion about Mint behavior and i simply pointed out the ERROR. And you assertion remains demonstrably incorrect. They only go to backorder if there are existing minting plans.
Okay then. If you are very familiar with the sets, having sold hundreds of them, maybe you should have refrained from making a very misleading comparison of them to this.
Because Back Order is indeed automatic in cases like this, if in fact the Mint intentionally made a short run to gauge demand. With the 2017 EU sets, they actually made and sold all 225K, so why did you go there with them to try to make your point? Because you didn't realize that I could learn the truth in 10 seconds with a Google search?
Talking about niche products where they don't make the full mintage, and then never go back to make more before pulling them from the catalog has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING AT ALL to do with a product like this. Or Morgan and Peace Dollars. Or ASEs. Etc.
You know as well as I that popular items that go out of stock go to Back Order. Because, of course they plan to make more if the demand is there. They don't just make an arbitrary number, well short of the maximum, and then stop sales for no reason at all.
And you know now that did not happen here. You are just looking for some theoretical justification for your earlier posts indicating that you thought it was possible that 34K were held back. Now that you see there are no plans to make more, even you realize they didn't just decide to make and sell half of the maximum.
There is nothing misleading about the 2017 sets. They got 40,000 returns and cancellations starting on the 2nd day of release. Eventually, that number got up to 60 or 70k. They sold some of those and the 10% overpriduction but many of those returns were destroyed. They were going to Mint replacements "if the schedule allowed" but then the year ran out. There is NO difference between that and having a short initial run.
This also happened with Eagles coins during Covid when they had trouble getting blanks. They never went to backorder because they was uncertainty as to whether additional supply would be manufactured.
The very simple point which you want to complicate is that backorder is not automatic when they haven't sold the entire mintage. Period. 2017 EU sets. Platinum coins. Silver eagles. Take your pick. So the lack of a backorder option here is conclusive of nothing.
It's also possible that they did sell the full mintage but we're waiting on a database update. Even then, however, you keep incorrectly referring to "bulk buyers" as a 3rd group of buyers. They do NOT get an allotment, unlike ABPP, and so their purchases aren't in a 3rd category. They buy out of the same inventory as regular buyers once the HHL is lifted. The only group, unless they did something differently here, that had a separate allotment is the ABPP buyers who do get a separate allotment and they are limited to about10% of the mintage which would be be 7500 coins not 34,000.
I don't need justification of anything. Unlike you, I have never made any definitive proclamation about these. I only keep pointing out that we can't know because there are other options. You want to keep denying other options in the same way that you keep insisting that your numerous incorrect prognostications about the popularity and value of these will someday be correct. You just keep going and going.
It's okay to just say, as i have, that we simply don't know.
Fair enough! Also, I already acknowledged that you are probably correct about bulk buyers not getting a separate allotment. But that's irrelevant, if they are sold separately once the HHL is lifted. Which is likely EXACTLY what happened here.
Which is why whatever was left disappeared in an instant on 10/16. Which is the only reasonable explanation for why 34K didn't make it into a sales report, yet are not available for sale.
Not 40K returns of a 2017 set. Not supply chain issues involving planchets during Covid. Not any theoretical exceptions to a general rule that orders for popular items are placed on Back Order, as opposed to being refused, when an item sells out in 24 hours and the maximum mintage has not already been manufactured.
Maybe you, in spite of your generally superior knowledge to mine, "simply don't know." In this case, I do know. ~75K have been sold. You can hold your breath, along with @coiner waiting for the missing 34K to make their way to a sales report. Or the Mint's website.
@coiner said: @jmlanzaf - Thanks for the update and links to the articles.
I heard the rumor of the 50,000 production run. If there is time left, and based on the popularity of the medal, the USM could make more available (i.e. the remaining 25,000)
I heard a rumor on the PCGS forum that they made 75,000 and secretly sold 25,000 of them. Shhh... pass it on...
Not just any rumor. From well known dealers. and Guess what! it was true.
They also got 1/3 of the Privies and signed COAs.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
@HalfDime said:
The mint is warming up the presses for the 2025 coins. They also have to have the packaging made. This is not the time to do another 30k.
For the umpteenth time, there is no missing 30K. They have already been made. And sold. Believe it or not.
The sales figure, INCLUDING ABPP Is just under 50,000 units. So where are the other 25,000??? They must be in the Mint's souvenir shops. Given how close the numbers are to 50,000, it seems possible that they only minted 50,000 medals in the initial run. [Or not. Time will tell. ]
@jmlanzaf thank you for the link to the Coin World article.
I copied and pasted this quick summary from the article for those that don't want to read the whole article:
**Figures place the medal, which celebrates the anniversary of the first dollar coin issued by the U.S. federal government, at a combined total of 49,925 — about two-thirds of the announced 75,000 mintage. Breaking it down, 40,999 were sold individually, while 8,926 went through the Mint’s Authorized Bulk Purchase Program (ABPP).
There’s no official word yet on whether the remaining one-third of the originally announced 75,000 mintage will be available.**
This article should end the ongoing debate between a few members on this thread but unfortunately I doubt it will serve that purpose!🤣😂
Thank you for the post.
Coin World is certainly an authoritative source, although they don't always get things right. In any event, where does any of this detail, including the aside about no word regarding what happened to the balance of the announced mintage, appear in the article you linked?
All I see is first day sales of 31,695. If the language you posted previously appeared and is now gone, that kind of makes my point that speculation about anything being available for future production, sale, distribution, etc. is misplaced, if it appeared in print and now doesn't.
Among other problems, announcing in print that they sold 8,926 through ABPP, when that channel is supposed to be limited to 7,500, would raise a huge issue for something that contained a lottery ticket and was not available to the public in quantity.
I have absolutely no doubt that it happened. I also think they would not want to publicize it. Same with the fact that nearly half the mintage went to other than retail, given the lottery ticket embedded in them. Yet, here we are, because they lack the competence to simply report that 74K+ were sold, even though they undoubtedly were.
Edit: I see the language you quoted came from coinnews.net, NOT Coin World. Big difference. I think you should stick with Coin World.
@HalfDime said:
The mint is warming up the presses for the 2025 coins. They also have to have the packaging made. This is not the time to do another 30k.
For the umpteenth time, there is no missing 30K. They have already been made. And sold. Believe it or not.
According to the article, they only did 50k. So there is a missing 25k.
There's nothing missing. It could easily be mid-november before the October data is finalized in the US Mint reports. Again, they've done this for many years. There's nothing unusual about the numbers released so far which are only complete through the week of October 14th.
The very simple point which you want to complicate is that backorder is not automatic when they haven't sold the entire mintage. Period. 2017 EU sets. Platinum coins. Silver eagles. Take your pick. So the lack of a backorder option here is conclusive of nothing.
It's also possible that they did sell the full mintage but we're waiting on a database update. Even then, however, you keep incorrectly referring to "bulk buyers" as a 3rd group of buyers. They do NOT get an allotment, unlike ABPP, and so their purchases aren't in a 3rd category. They buy out of the same inventory as regular buyers once the HHL is lifted. The only group, unless they did something differently here, that had a separate allotment is the ABPP buyers who do get a separate allotment and they are limited to 10% of the mintage which would be be 7500 coins not 34,000.
Very true. I am in agreement the only reserved inventory is for ABPP for 7,500 coins or 10%.
This means 67,500 was available for Bulk and normal customer purchases.
The last sales report shows 40,999 sold. None went backorder.
26,501 coins not accounted for.
If, in fact, some shorter production run was completed (say 50,000) maybe there is some reserved inventory to be made available alongside the GOLD at the Baltimore show.
Yeah, maybe. 🤣🤣🤣
Because they don't know how to release related items together when they want to sell them alongside each other. Like Morgan and Peace Dollars, or American Liberty gold coins and silver medals.
Because they didn't already make sure dealers received more than their fair share, so they'll want to stuff a held back quantity, a month after they went Unavailable, directly down dealers' throats, on an unlimited basis, at a show, right in front of the masses.
Maybe. "Some reserved inventory." Because they didn't learn their lesson in Chicago a few years ago. 🤣🤣🤣
@HalfDime said:
The mint is warming up the presses for the 2025 coins. They also have to have the packaging made. This is not the time to do another 30k.
For the umpteenth time, there is no missing 30K. They have already been made. And sold. Believe it or not.
According to the article, they only did 50k. So there is a missing 25k.
There's nothing missing. It could easily be mid-november before the October data is finalized in the US Mint reports. Again, they've done this for many years. There's nothing unusual about the numbers released so far which are only complete through the week of October 14th.
To be honest, the more I think about it, after reading what was posted on the numismatic websites, it looks like, for some inexplicable reason, that they set everyone's hair on fire by only capturing sales though noon on 10/16, rather than 12:02, in order to report "first day sales" while missing the sell out that occurred two minutes later.
As a result, it looks like they picked up ABPP sales, whatever they were, plus all the one at a time retail sales in the first 24 hours. Missing whatever went to bulk buyers, plus whatever was left for retail, in the 2 minutes between noon and 12:02 on 10/16 before they went unavailable.
Why they would choose to do that on a report dated 10/20 is a mystery, but is certainly more plausible than all the conspiracy theories involving them setting up a lottery to ensure a sell out, and then not producing for the sell out. Or not accepting Back Orders if they under produced and ran out of inventory, because they never actually intended to produce or sell 75K.
@Goldminers said:
I see the flowing hair gold will be $3,740 if gold is between $2,700-2,749.99, which is $140 more than the gold eagle proof at $3,600 according to the new 2024 pricing grid.
Premium of basically $1,000!
EXACTLY as I suspected. Does anyone here really think the Mint is leaving enough meat on the bone to stimulate 17,500 sales at that price? Without a lottery ticket, and with the original coin being silver, not gold?
I honestly think the Mint Jumped the Shark, if it did not already do so with the mintages and pricing of the 2024 Morgan and Peace Dollars, trying to sell 17,500 of anything at a $1,000 premium to a $2,700 intrinsic value.
It might seem like blasphemy, right here on this forum, but I do enjoy going out on a limb, inviting slings and arrows, for the opportunity to be later proven correct. I don't think these are going to sell out, in the absence of a lottery that the Mint apparently does not believe it needs on account of the low mintage.
Only 40% higher than a similar product (2021 and 2023 American Liberty High Relief Gold) that did sell out and do sell for significant secondary market premiums. Pure greed, as though there is no point that can possibly be too much. Even after killing demand for popular Morgan and Peace Dollars by needing to maintain obnoxious premiums in the face of increasing silver prices.
I just don't think there is going to be significant demand for a gold one-off at $3700 when a silver version, true to the original medal, is readily available for $200 or less for those interested in having something for their collection. Notwithstanding the fact that the ounce of gold has been monetized at $1, and the silver ounce has not.
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
From COIN WORLD: **_Forty-two percent of the maximum authorization of silver medals recognizing the 230th anniversary of the nation’s first silver dollar in 1794 were recorded sold by the U.S. Mint on the first day of sales Oct. 15. The medal reached currently unavailable status soon after release.
Each of the 31,695 Uncirculated finish .999 fine 1-ounce silver medals was sold for $104._**
Add in bulk purchasers and you end up with ~41,000 for Day 1 when the HHL was 1. HHL was then lifted and the balance sold (with no HHL) in minutes on Day 2. No need to get your panties in a wad. There were ~34,000 sold on Day 2.
@VanHalen said:
From COIN WORLD: **_Forty-two percent of the maximum authorization of silver medals recognizing the 230th anniversary of the nation’s first silver dollar in 1794 were recorded sold by the U.S. Mint on the first day of sales Oct. 15. The medal reached currently unavailable status soon after release.
Each of the 31,695 Uncirculated finish .999 fine 1-ounce silver medals was sold for $104._**
Add in bulk purchasers and you end up with ~41,000 for Day 1 when the HHL was 1. HHL was then lifted and the balance sold (with no HHL) in minutes on Day 2. No need to get your panties in a wad. There were ~34,000 sold on Day 2.
Or they sold 9000 on day 2. Nobody's pants are in a wad. I don't mind or care if they only minted 50k. We simply don't know.
It is, however, unusual to sell more on the second day than the first.
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
The sales report is Sunday to Sunday, is it not? Did they sell 34,000 at 12:01 on Monday morning when they weren't available?
@VanHalen said:
From COIN WORLD: **_Forty-two percent of the maximum authorization of silver medals recognizing the 230th anniversary of the nation’s first silver dollar in 1794 were recorded sold by the U.S. Mint on the first day of sales Oct. 15. The medal reached currently unavailable status soon after release.
Each of the 31,695 Uncirculated finish .999 fine 1-ounce silver medals was sold for $104._**
Add in bulk purchasers and you end up with ~41,000 for Day 1 when the HHL was 1. HHL was then lifted and the balance sold (with no HHL) in minutes on Day 2. No need to get your panties in a wad. There were ~34,000 sold on Day 2.
Or they sold 9000 on day 2.
The household limit was lifted. They were gone in less than 1 minute. I'm done with this conversation.
@VanHalen said:
From COIN WORLD: **_Forty-two percent of the maximum authorization of silver medals recognizing the 230th anniversary of the nation’s first silver dollar in 1794 were recorded sold by the U.S. Mint on the first day of sales Oct. 15. The medal reached currently unavailable status soon after release.
Each of the 31,695 Uncirculated finish .999 fine 1-ounce silver medals was sold for $104._**
Add in bulk purchasers and you end up with ~41,000 for Day 1 when the HHL was 1. HHL was then lifted and the balance sold (with no HHL) in minutes on Day 2. No need to get your panties in a wad. There were ~34,000 sold on Day 2.
Or they sold 9000 on day 2.
The household limit was lifted. They were gone in less than 1 minute. I'm done with this conversation.
Which doesn't mean they sold more than the 9,000 it took to get to 50,000. What is your theory as to why only 41,000 showed up in the WEEKLY sales report which ends Sunday night.
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
You don't even seem to understand my point. The website right now had numerous items that aren't on backorder but not sold out or even fully minted. Lack of a Back order doesn't mean anything, even though you keep citing it as evidence of something.
@VanHalen said:
From COIN WORLD: **_Forty-two percent of the maximum authorization of silver medals recognizing the 230th anniversary of the nation’s first silver dollar in 1794 were recorded sold by the U.S. Mint on the first day of sales Oct. 15. The medal reached currently unavailable status soon after release.
Each of the 31,695 Uncirculated finish .999 fine 1-ounce silver medals was sold for $104._**
Add in bulk purchasers and you end up with ~41,000 for Day 1 when the HHL was 1. HHL was then lifted and the balance sold (with no HHL) in minutes on Day 2. No need to get your panties in a wad. There were ~34,000 sold on Day 2.
Or they sold 9000 on day 2.
The household limit was lifted. They were gone in less than 1 minute. I'm done with this conversation.
Which doesn't mean they sold more than the 9,000 it took to get to 50,000. What is your theory as to why only 41,000 showed up in the WEEKLY sales report which ends Sunday night.
You're joking right? This exact scenario has played itself out a dozen times in the last 20 years. This is no different than any other mint release.
When the household limit was lifted anyone could buy all that remained. They sold out in one minute.
They are unavailable because all they're going to have is a few trickling in here and there from returns. 75k have been sold. Otherwise you could just go in and buy one right now or buy 50,000 right now, there's no household limit.
@VanHalen said:
From COIN WORLD: **_Forty-two percent of the maximum authorization of silver medals recognizing the 230th anniversary of the nation’s first silver dollar in 1794 were recorded sold by the U.S. Mint on the first day of sales Oct. 15. The medal reached currently unavailable status soon after release.
Each of the 31,695 Uncirculated finish .999 fine 1-ounce silver medals was sold for $104._**
Add in bulk purchasers and you end up with ~41,000 for Day 1 when the HHL was 1. HHL was then lifted and the balance sold (with no HHL) in minutes on Day 2. No need to get your panties in a wad. There were ~34,000 sold on Day 2.
Or they sold 9000 on day 2. Nobody's pants are in a wad. I don't mind or care if they only minted 50k. We simply don't know.
It is, however, unusual to sell more on the second day than the first.
Completely normal, happens regularly on the day the household limit is lifted on popular products.
According to the bulk purchasing information, bulk dealers are only allowed to purchase up to 10% of a limited product, yet they received 8,926 medals.
2024 Flowing Hair Silver Medal (+40,999)
2024 Flowing Hair Silver Medal (Bulk) (+8,926)
Simple math translates that into 89,260 medals produced, but we all know that didn't happen. It appears they allowed the dealers to buy 20% of 50k instead of 10% of 75k. Is this confusing enough?
Is the mint going to strike the other 25k medals? Were all the 1794 privy mark medals struck? How many went to dealers, 20% or 359 privy medals?
So let's say the mint later decides to strike the remaining 25k medals. Assuming they did strike all the 1794 privy medals and already released them, that means they can't release any with the batch of 25k medals. Chances are the new batch is going to crash the price of the 50k medals already released, as it will dilute those already out.
@VanHalen said:
From COIN WORLD: **_Forty-two percent of the maximum authorization of silver medals recognizing the 230th anniversary of the nation’s first silver dollar in 1794 were recorded sold by the U.S. Mint on the first day of sales Oct. 15. The medal reached currently unavailable status soon after release.
Each of the 31,695 Uncirculated finish .999 fine 1-ounce silver medals was sold for $104._**
Add in bulk purchasers and you end up with ~41,000 for Day 1 when the HHL was 1. HHL was then lifted and the balance sold (with no HHL) in minutes on Day 2. No need to get your panties in a wad. There were ~34,000 sold on Day 2.
Or they sold 9000 on day 2. Nobody's pants are in a wad. I don't mind or care if they only minted 50k. We simply don't know.
It is, however, unusual to sell more on the second day than the first.
Yes, but it's also unusual to embed a lottery ticket into a medal that is sold with a HHL of 1 on the first day, but no limit on the second. Not sure why you insist on allowing for every potential possibility while ignoring the most obvious one, just because it was not initially obvious to you.
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
The sales report is Sunday to Sunday, is it not? Did they sell 34,000 at 12:01 on Monday morning when they weren't available?
That's what I thought as well. But the 34K are missing. They are not unproduced and/or unsold.
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
The sales report is Sunday to Sunday, is it not? Did they sell 34,000 at 12:01 on Monday morning when they weren't available?
That's what I thought as well. But the 34K are missing.
They are not unproduced and/or unsold. Those two links to numismatic press both refer to first day sales, so I thought that might account for the reason.
If not, I'm back to that bulk sales channel, front end, whatever you want to call it not being captured. Whatever it is, it's not that they created a lottery to sell 41K, 50K, whatever number you like, and not bothering with the balance of the authorized mintage.
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
You don't even seem to understand my point. The website right now had numerous items that aren't on backorder but not sold out or even fully minted. Lack of a Back order doesn't mean anything, even though you keep citing it as evidence of something.
I absolutely do understand what you are saying. You bringing in the 2017 EU sets was a total red herring.
Mentioning niche products, with low demand, that aren't on Back Order even though they have no stock and are not sold out, because they don't have sufficient demand to justify making more, has absolutely nothing to do with this. So throwing it out as a theoretical possibility is pointless.
As will calling me a broken clock who happened to be right when 34K magically appear on some future sales report, even though they never went back on sale in quantity.
@HalfDime said:
According to the bulk purchasing information, bulk dealers are only allowed to purchase up to 10% of a limited product, yet they received 8,926 medals.
[...]
There are two "bulk" programs:
~ the ABPP;
~and, the NBPP.
When the ABPP started, it was limited to 10%. Based on the CN figures, not sure this is still the case (i.e., 8,926 > 0.10 * 75,000).
As I understand it, NBPP buyers are able "to purchase any product available in any quantity" after the HOL is lifted. Reference; See T&C #9
@VanHalen said:
From COIN WORLD: **_Forty-two percent of the maximum authorization of silver medals recognizing the 230th anniversary of the nation’s first silver dollar in 1794 were recorded sold by the U.S. Mint on the first day of sales Oct. 15. The medal reached currently unavailable status soon after release.
Each of the 31,695 Uncirculated finish .999 fine 1-ounce silver medals was sold for $104._**
Add in bulk purchasers and you end up with ~41,000 for Day 1 when the HHL was 1. HHL was then lifted and the balance sold (with no HHL) in minutes on Day 2. No need to get your panties in a wad. There were ~34,000 sold on Day 2.
Or they sold 9000 on day 2. Nobody's pants are in a wad. I don't mind or care if they only minted 50k. We simply don't know.
It is, however, unusual to sell more on the second day than the first.
Completely normal, happens regularly on the day the household limit is lifted on popular products.
I agree. Except it is not normal for the sales total to only be 41,000. What is your explanation for that? The only reason we think there might be more is because there should be 66,000 sold not 41,000.
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
The sales report is Sunday to Sunday, is it not? Did they sell 34,000 at 12:01 on Monday morning when they weren't available?
That's what I thought as well. But the 34K are missing.
They are not unproduced and/or unsold. Those two links to numismatic press both refer to first day sales, so I thought that might account for the reason.
If not, I'm back to that bulk sales channel, front end, whatever you want to call it not being captured. Whatever it is, it's not that they created a lottery to sell 41K, 50K, whatever number you like, and not bothering with the balance of the authorized mintage.
The front end was captured. It's 9,000 per the references i provided. We also have the sales number through Sunday 41,000. So, there's the 50,000.> @NJCoin said:
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
You don't even seem to understand my point. The website right now had numerous items that aren't on backorder but not sold out or even fully minted. Lack of a Back order doesn't mean anything, even though you keep citing it as evidence of something.
I absolutely do understand what you are saying. You bringing in the 2017 EU sets was a total red herring.
Mentioning niche products, with low demand, that aren't on Back Order even though they have no stock and are not sold out, because they don't have sufficient demand to justify making more, has absolutely nothing to do with this. So throwing it out as a theoretical possibility is pointless.
As will calling me a broken clock who happened to be right when 34K magically appear on some future sales report, even though they never went back on sale in quantity.
You, sir, are not a broken clock. You are a clock that is 15 minutes behind. Broken clocks are right twice per day. 😉
@VanHalen said:
From COIN WORLD: **_Forty-two percent of the maximum authorization of silver medals recognizing the 230th anniversary of the nation’s first silver dollar in 1794 were recorded sold by the U.S. Mint on the first day of sales Oct. 15. The medal reached currently unavailable status soon after release.
Each of the 31,695 Uncirculated finish .999 fine 1-ounce silver medals was sold for $104._**
Add in bulk purchasers and you end up with ~41,000 for Day 1 when the HHL was 1. HHL was then lifted and the balance sold (with no HHL) in minutes on Day 2. No need to get your panties in a wad. There were ~34,000 sold on Day 2.
Or they sold 9000 on day 2. Nobody's pants are in a wad. I don't mind or care if they only minted 50k. We simply don't know.
It is, however, unusual to sell more on the second day than the first.
Completely normal, happens regularly on the day the household limit is lifted on popular products.
I agree. Except it is not normal for the sales total to only be 41,000. What is your explanation for that? The only reason we think there might be more is because there should be 66,000 sold not 41,000.
Total of 41,000 showing is normal for a first report. The Coin World article plainly states first day sales of around 32k. We know around 9k went to "select" purchasers. Voila!
Let's resume this discussion on Tuesday, November 12th at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time. By that time we should have all the data.
whether they produced all 75,000 or just 50,000; we do not know.
however, we do know that usually when they produce the full amount they will "sell" up to that amount, with the excess over available inventory being on 'backorder"
since they were not taking orders and showing "backorder", it tells us they probably did not strike all 75,000.
we now know that ~41,000 were sold to normal customers and ~8926 to ABPP (exceeding the normal 10% or 7500; but we understand they can adjust that % as needed)
what we need to know now is did they/will they produce the other 25,000 medals and when will they offer them.
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
The sales report is Sunday to Sunday, is it not? Did they sell 34,000 at 12:01 on Monday morning when they weren't available?
That's what I thought as well. But the 34K are missing.
They are not unproduced and/or unsold. Those two links to numismatic press both refer to first day sales, so I thought that might account for the reason.
If not, I'm back to that bulk sales channel, front end, whatever you want to call it not being captured. Whatever it is, it's not that they created a lottery to sell 41K, 50K, whatever number you like, and not bothering with the balance of the authorized mintage.
The front end was captured. It's 9,000 per the references i provided. We also have the sales number through Sunday 41,000. So, there's the 50,000.> @NJCoin said:
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
You don't even seem to understand my point. The website right now had numerous items that aren't on backorder but not sold out or even fully minted. Lack of a Back order doesn't mean anything, even though you keep citing it as evidence of something.
I absolutely do understand what you are saying. You bringing in the 2017 EU sets was a total red herring.
Mentioning niche products, with low demand, that aren't on Back Order even though they have no stock and are not sold out, because they don't have sufficient demand to justify making more, has absolutely nothing to do with this. So throwing it out as a theoretical possibility is pointless.
As will calling me a broken clock who happened to be right when 34K magically appear on some future sales report, even though they never went back on sale in quantity.
You, sir, are not a broken clock. You are a clock that is 15 minutes behind. Broken clocks are right twice per day. 😉
We'll see. But that 9K represents ABPP ADVANCE sales. Not the unlimited bulk sales that occurred on your front end at 12:01 p.m. on 10/16.
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
The sales report is Sunday to Sunday, is it not? Did they sell 34,000 at 12:01 on Monday morning when they weren't available?
That's what I thought as well. But the 34K are missing.
They are not unproduced and/or unsold. Those two links to numismatic press both refer to first day sales, so I thought that might account for the reason.
If not, I'm back to that bulk sales channel, front end, whatever you want to call it not being captured. Whatever it is, it's not that they created a lottery to sell 41K, 50K, whatever number you like, and not bothering with the balance of the authorized mintage.
The front end was captured. It's 9,000 per the references i provided. We also have the sales number through Sunday 41,000. So, there's the 50,000.> @NJCoin said:
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
You don't even seem to understand my point. The website right now had numerous items that aren't on backorder but not sold out or even fully minted. Lack of a Back order doesn't mean anything, even though you keep citing it as evidence of something.
I absolutely do understand what you are saying. You bringing in the 2017 EU sets was a total red herring.
Mentioning niche products, with low demand, that aren't on Back Order even though they have no stock and are not sold out, because they don't have sufficient demand to justify making more, has absolutely nothing to do with this. So throwing it out as a theoretical possibility is pointless.
As will calling me a broken clock who happened to be right when 34K magically appear on some future sales report, even though they never went back on sale in quantity.
You, sir, are not a broken clock. You are a clock that is 15 minutes behind. Broken clocks are right twice per day. 😉
We'll see. But that 9K represents ABPP ADVANCE sales. Not the unlimited bulk sales that occurred on your front end at 12:01 p.m. on 10/16.
The bulk sales would be in the 41,000
Why is this so hard? They buy out of the same inventory pool that they pull the sales number from.
Comments
>
Huh? They are dated 2024 because 1794 plus 230 gets us 2024. Medals struck next year would have to be dated 2025 to remain a 230th anniversary for the 1795 coin.
They could do 230th all the way to the 1804 design in 2034.
Next year would be 230th anniversary of both flowing hair and draped bust. Two medals dated 2025.
2026 would only have draped bust. 2028 reverse would switch to heraldic eagle.
PS You are correct they could strike the 25K they didn't do next year and remain the 230th anniversary of the 1794 coin, but it is much better to have this a yearly medal as I outline above.
From Coinnews.net
"Figures place the medal, which celebrates the anniversary of the first dollar coin issued by the U.S. federal government, at a combined total of 49,925 — about two-thirds of the announced 75,000 mintage. Breaking it down, 40,999 were sold individually, while 8,926 went through the Mint’s Authorized Bulk Purchase Program (ABPP)."
“The Mint may, at any time, add new coin programs to the Numismatic Bulk Purchase Program as they are approved and made available.”
So, 17.9% of the current mintages stated went to ABPP and maybe bulk NBPP to exceed the 10%. Or 11.9% of the future 75,000 total?
https://catalog.usmint.gov/bulk-purchase-program-landing.html#numismatic
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
According to the article, they only did 50k. So there is a missing 25k.
The design was introduced in 1794. It is unlikely that they would create new tooling to create a new issue. Look at their entire medal catalog. They don't ever change the dates. If they did, it would be a new medal and not part of the 75,000
"Bulk" is not a separate category. They do not reserve coins for the bulk buyers. They buy from the same inventory you do. They just get a 5 or 10% discount and can order in larger multiples ONLY AFTER THE HHL is lifted.
>
The US Mint has a youtube video that shows them doing this, and it is the first laser engraved medal/coin ever done by the US Mint. I doubt it is that hard to change the 4 to a 5 since they changed the 2024 to shift the date like the original.
Fine, I edited and struck my bulk comment.
But do we believe all the Mint statements? Is 10% the same as 11.9% or 17.9%? I don't think so. See below:
ABBP applicants must be active members in the Mint’s existing Numismatic Bulk Purchase Program (NBPP) in good standing for at least two years, have a two-year revenue average with the NBPP of at least $500,000 annually, and have a history of full compliance with the Mint’s excessive returns policy.
“This new program will help to enhance the distribution of numismatic Mint products as they go on sale, expanding availability of our products by utilizing well-vetted business partners that have long-term relationships with the Mint’s Numismatic Programs,” according to Mint officials. “Not all Mint products will be offered through this program, and no more than 10 percent of products with limited quantities will be distributed under this program."
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
The original program specified 10%. I do not know what the limits are on individual items. I also don't know if medals are different.
Bottom line is, I don't think we know if they made 75,000 or 50,000. We do know the official sales numbers to ABPP and from the website. Since the only other sales channel in aware of is the Mint shops, it seems unlikely that there are 25,000 unaccounted for sales. But it is possible, we'll just have to wait and see.
I didn't say it couldn't be done. They do it every year on circulating coins. But there is a cost to doing it and zero cost to using the existing filling to make the other 25,000 - assuming there is another 25,000. Mint medals generally hands low sales numbers and it is not normal for the Mint to create annual series. Could they? Yes. Are they likely to? No.
@jmlanzaf - Thanks for the update and links to the articles.
I heard the rumor of the 50,000 production run. If there is time left, and based on the popularity of the medal, the USM could make more available (i.e. the remaining 25,000)
I heard a rumor on the PCGS forum that they made 75,000 and secretly sold 25,000 of them. Shhh... pass it on...
I see the flowing hair gold will be $3,740 if gold is between $2,700-2,749.99, which is $140 more than the gold eagle proof at $3,600 according to the new 2024 pricing grid.
Premium of basically $1,000!
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Not just any rumor. From well known dealers. and Guess what! it was true.
The whole damn thing didnt smell right from the beginning.
Fair enough! Also, I already acknowledged that you are probably correct about bulk buyers not getting a separate allotment. But that's irrelevant, if they are sold separately once the HHL is lifted. Which is likely EXACTLY what happened here.
Which is why whatever was left disappeared in an instant on 10/16. Which is the only reasonable explanation for why 34K didn't make it into a sales report, yet are not available for sale.
Not 40K returns of a 2017 set. Not supply chain issues involving planchets during Covid. Not any theoretical exceptions to a general rule that orders for popular items are placed on Back Order, as opposed to being refused, when an item sells out in 24 hours and the maximum mintage has not already been manufactured.
Maybe you, in spite of your generally superior knowledge to mine, "simply don't know." In this case, I do know. ~75K have been sold. You can hold your breath, along with @coiner waiting for the missing 34K to make their way to a sales report. Or the Mint's website.
They also got 1/3 of the Privies and signed COAs.
The "other sales channel" being bulk sales. I'll concede they don't get an allocation set aside. I'm not conceding they go through the same website or call center the rest of us do, and provide a secret code in order to get bulk pricing.
That would mean a separate sales channel, where they can place orders for hundreds or thousands at a time, which we cannot do. And would explain how they went Unavailable in 2 minutes on 10/16, even though, according to you, only 7,500 went to ABPP, and less than 32,000 went to retail in the first 24 hours.
And finally, would explain how some category of sales would not make it into a sales report.
Thank you for the post.
Coin World is certainly an authoritative source, although they don't always get things right. In any event, where does any of this detail, including the aside about no word regarding what happened to the balance of the announced mintage, appear in the article you linked?
All I see is first day sales of 31,695. If the language you posted previously appeared and is now gone, that kind of makes my point that speculation about anything being available for future production, sale, distribution, etc. is misplaced, if it appeared in print and now doesn't.
Among other problems, announcing in print that they sold 8,926 through ABPP, when that channel is supposed to be limited to 7,500, would raise a huge issue for something that contained a lottery ticket and was not available to the public in quantity.
I have absolutely no doubt that it happened. I also think they would not want to publicize it. Same with the fact that nearly half the mintage went to other than retail, given the lottery ticket embedded in them. Yet, here we are, because they lack the competence to simply report that 74K+ were sold, even though they undoubtedly were.
Edit: I see the language you quoted came from coinnews.net, NOT Coin World. Big difference. I think you should stick with Coin World.
There's nothing missing. It could easily be mid-november before the October data is finalized in the US Mint reports. Again, they've done this for many years. There's nothing unusual about the numbers released so far which are only complete through the week of October 14th.
Yeah, maybe. 🤣🤣🤣
Because they don't know how to release related items together when they want to sell them alongside each other. Like Morgan and Peace Dollars, or American Liberty gold coins and silver medals.
Because they didn't already make sure dealers received more than their fair share, so they'll want to stuff a held back quantity, a month after they went Unavailable, directly down dealers' throats, on an unlimited basis, at a show, right in front of the masses.
Maybe. "Some reserved inventory." Because they didn't learn their lesson in Chicago a few years ago. 🤣🤣🤣
To be honest, the more I think about it, after reading what was posted on the numismatic websites, it looks like, for some inexplicable reason, that they set everyone's hair on fire by only capturing sales though noon on 10/16, rather than 12:02, in order to report "first day sales" while missing the sell out that occurred two minutes later.
As a result, it looks like they picked up ABPP sales, whatever they were, plus all the one at a time retail sales in the first 24 hours. Missing whatever went to bulk buyers, plus whatever was left for retail, in the 2 minutes between noon and 12:02 on 10/16 before they went unavailable.
Why they would choose to do that on a report dated 10/20 is a mystery, but is certainly more plausible than all the conspiracy theories involving them setting up a lottery to ensure a sell out, and then not producing for the sell out. Or not accepting Back Orders if they under produced and ran out of inventory, because they never actually intended to produce or sell 75K.
EXACTLY as I suspected. Does anyone here really think the Mint is leaving enough meat on the bone to stimulate 17,500 sales at that price? Without a lottery ticket, and with the original coin being silver, not gold?
I honestly think the Mint Jumped the Shark, if it did not already do so with the mintages and pricing of the 2024 Morgan and Peace Dollars, trying to sell 17,500 of anything at a $1,000 premium to a $2,700 intrinsic value.
It might seem like blasphemy, right here on this forum, but I do enjoy going out on a limb, inviting slings and arrows, for the opportunity to be later proven correct. I don't think these are going to sell out, in the absence of a lottery that the Mint apparently does not believe it needs on account of the low mintage.
Only 40% higher than a similar product (2021 and 2023 American Liberty High Relief Gold) that did sell out and do sell for significant secondary market premiums. Pure greed, as though there is no point that can possibly be too much. Even after killing demand for popular Morgan and Peace Dollars by needing to maintain obnoxious premiums in the face of increasing silver prices.
I just don't think there is going to be significant demand for a gold one-off at $3700 when a silver version, true to the original medal, is readily available for $200 or less for those interested in having something for their collection. Notwithstanding the fact that the ounce of gold has been monetized at $1, and the silver ounce has not.
They do have a separate front end but it's connected to the same inventory. That is why issues like this go unavailable quickly when the HHL is lifted and the bulk buyers can submit their 1000 coin orders. It's neither mysterious nor rocket science.
Okay, so it sounds like we are starting to say the same thing. That would explain how they went Unavailable so quickly. Same inventory, obviously, otherwise the Mint would have no way to know when to cut-off sales, but different channel (front end).
Will you concede the possibility that the sales report, for whatever stupid reason, could have cut-off at noon, or at 7:30 a.m., or at midnight, and not 12:02? Or do you still honestly believe 34K are somehow both unsold and unavailable for sale?
Also, you should realize that your 2017 EU set example actually makes my point. They never went to Back Order because they made and sold the maximum mintage. Just like here.
Later returns would impact their ability to be taken off Unavailable status, once they are processed and returned to inventory. But the Mint can't accept a Back Order for something it has no ability to make more of. Which is not merely because it chooses not to, but because it is prohibited by a mintage limit from doing so.
From COIN WORLD: **_Forty-two percent of the maximum authorization of silver medals recognizing the 230th anniversary of the nation’s first silver dollar in 1794 were recorded sold by the U.S. Mint on the first day of sales Oct. 15. The medal reached currently unavailable status soon after release.
Each of the 31,695 Uncirculated finish .999 fine 1-ounce silver medals was sold for $104._**
https://coinworld.com/news/us-coins/flowing-hair-anniversary-medal-opening-sales-brisk
Add in bulk purchasers and you end up with ~41,000 for Day 1 when the HHL was 1. HHL was then lifted and the balance sold (with no HHL) in minutes on Day 2. No need to get your panties in a wad. There were ~34,000 sold on Day 2.
Or they sold 9000 on day 2. Nobody's pants are in a wad. I don't mind or care if they only minted 50k. We simply don't know.
It is, however, unusual to sell more on the second day than the first.
The sales report is Sunday to Sunday, is it not? Did they sell 34,000 at 12:01 on Monday morning when they weren't available?
The household limit was lifted. They were gone in less than 1 minute. I'm done with this conversation.
Which doesn't mean they sold more than the 9,000 it took to get to 50,000. What is your theory as to why only 41,000 showed up in the WEEKLY sales report which ends Sunday night.
You don't even seem to understand my point. The website right now had numerous items that aren't on backorder but not sold out or even fully minted. Lack of a Back order doesn't mean anything, even though you keep citing it as evidence of something.
You're joking right? This exact scenario has played itself out a dozen times in the last 20 years. This is no different than any other mint release.
When the household limit was lifted anyone could buy all that remained. They sold out in one minute.
They are unavailable because all they're going to have is a few trickling in here and there from returns. 75k have been sold. Otherwise you could just go in and buy one right now or buy 50,000 right now, there's no household limit.
Completely normal, happens regularly on the day the household limit is lifted on popular products.
According to the bulk purchasing information, bulk dealers are only allowed to purchase up to 10% of a limited product, yet they received 8,926 medals.
2024 Flowing Hair Silver Medal (+40,999)
2024 Flowing Hair Silver Medal (Bulk) (+8,926)
Simple math translates that into 89,260 medals produced, but we all know that didn't happen. It appears they allowed the dealers to buy 20% of 50k instead of 10% of 75k. Is this confusing enough?
Is the mint going to strike the other 25k medals? Were all the 1794 privy mark medals struck? How many went to dealers, 20% or 359 privy medals?
So let's say the mint later decides to strike the remaining 25k medals. Assuming they did strike all the 1794 privy medals and already released them, that means they can't release any with the batch of 25k medals. Chances are the new batch is going to crash the price of the 50k medals already released, as it will dilute those already out.
Remember when those 25k "extras" show up, there's no HHL. One order can take them all and triple their money instantly.
You better be quick!
Yes, but it's also unusual to embed a lottery ticket into a medal that is sold with a HHL of 1 on the first day, but no limit on the second. Not sure why you insist on allowing for every potential possibility while ignoring the most obvious one, just because it was not initially obvious to you.
That's what I thought as well. But the 34K are missing. They are not unproduced and/or unsold.
They are not unproduced and/or unsold. Those two links to numismatic press both refer to first day sales, so I thought that might account for the reason.
If not, I'm back to that bulk sales channel, front end, whatever you want to call it not being captured. Whatever it is, it's not that they created a lottery to sell 41K, 50K, whatever number you like, and not bothering with the balance of the authorized mintage.
I absolutely do understand what you are saying. You bringing in the 2017 EU sets was a total red herring.
Mentioning niche products, with low demand, that aren't on Back Order even though they have no stock and are not sold out, because they don't have sufficient demand to justify making more, has absolutely nothing to do with this. So throwing it out as a theoretical possibility is pointless.
As will calling me a broken clock who happened to be right when 34K magically appear on some future sales report, even though they never went back on sale in quantity.
There are two "bulk" programs:
~ the ABPP;
~and, the NBPP.
When the ABPP started, it was limited to 10%. Based on the CN figures, not sure this is still the case (i.e., 8,926 > 0.10 * 75,000).
As I understand it, NBPP buyers are able "to purchase any product available in any quantity" after the HOL is lifted.
Reference; See T&C #9
The CN article did not quantify any NBPP sales.
I agree. Except it is not normal for the sales total to only be 41,000. What is your explanation for that? The only reason we think there might be more is because there should be 66,000 sold not 41,000.
.
The front end was captured. It's 9,000 per the references i provided. We also have the sales number through Sunday 41,000. So, there's the 50,000.> @NJCoin said:
You, sir, are not a broken clock. You are a clock that is 15 minutes behind. Broken clocks are right twice per day. 😉
Total of 41,000 showing is normal for a first report. The Coin World article plainly states first day sales of around 32k. We know around 9k went to "select" purchasers. Voila!
Let's resume this discussion on Tuesday, November 12th at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time. By that time we should have all the data.
🤔
Not in NJ.
whether they produced all 75,000 or just 50,000; we do not know.
however, we do know that usually when they produce the full amount they will "sell" up to that amount, with the excess over available inventory being on 'backorder"
since they were not taking orders and showing "backorder", it tells us they probably did not strike all 75,000.
we now know that ~41,000 were sold to normal customers and ~8926 to ABPP (exceeding the normal 10% or 7500; but we understand they can adjust that % as needed)
what we need to know now is did they/will they produce the other 25,000 medals and when will they offer them.
We'll see. But that 9K represents ABPP ADVANCE sales. Not the unlimited bulk sales that occurred on your front end at 12:01 p.m. on 10/16.
TBD. TBD. 😀
this product is not sold out. there is no indication that it is sold out.
anyone saying that the USM sold out is wrong. period.
The bulk sales would be in the 41,000
Why is this so hard? They buy out of the same inventory pool that they pull the sales number from.
Pop Report as of October 26, 2024......
Non-privy medals graded have not changed since Thursday.
PCGS graded 8 more privies as of today.