Home U.S. Coin Forum

U.S. Mint 2024 lottery "230th Anniversary Flowing Hair Silver Medal".

1141517192031

Comments

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Numismetal said:
    What do folks think about the current vs. future selling price for the version with the 230 privy (but standard COA)? I'm getting the impression that a lot of people think the prices are higher now than they will be at any point in the future, but the dealers I've called are eager for this coin offering about 3K -- which is what I think one would get on ebay minus fees. That gives me the impression that they think there is the potential for upward mobility.

    That's impossible to say. The sample size is too small for anyone to really know.

    The thing that makes me think they might go down, rather than up, is that they are starting so high. And then, unlike issues like the V75 AGEs that everyone had an equal, tiny chance to get, dealers received a guaranteed allocation of what looks like 45% of them.

    That means they are not now in the secondary market trying to acquire them. It also means they have plenty available for sale, as evidenced by all the eBay listings.

    In the past, a substantial number of collectors were able to obtain things like this at issue price. Not so much with these. As desirable as they are, no one really knows what the organic collector demand is at a given price point, $3K, $4K, $5k, whatever, when dealers have plenty to sell and are not in the market competing with collectors to buy.

    As a result, you can look to the V75 AGE, discount for the fact that these are silver rather than gold, and argue they could be worth $15K each. You can also argue that no one in their right mind would pay even $3K for a modern Mint issue containing an ounce of silver, no matter how artificially low they set the mintage.

    TBD, but I wouldn't touch them in the secondary market, just to not reward dealers for the giveaway the Mint bestowed upon them. My life is still worth living, even without owning one of them. And, IMHO, they are far too risky to speculate in as a trade.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 1:45PM

    @OLC said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @OLC said:
    So they don't count dealer sales anymore.

    They'll count it somewhere. Just not on that report.

    So the report is completely worthless and inaccurate.

    Well, yeah. They sold out at 12:02 p.m. on 10/15, with tiny numbers popping up, and immediately selling out, most mornings at 7:30 a.m.

    Do you need an official Mint sales report to know that ~75K have been sold? Does this report honestly make you think they held back 34K that are going to be made available at some point in the future?

    If not, yes, the report is completely worthless and inaccurate. I happen to think it is accurate as far as it goes, which is to reflect retail sales via web and phone, but not any sales via other channels (dealers, and maybe Mint retail sales locations -- Philly, Denver and DC).

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 1:51PM

    @MsMorrisine said:
    i can't explain the published number, but if it is product 24YH sold to dealers, then the dealers' 24YH sales absolutely will show in the numbers.. perhaps they aren't right now - dunno - but eventually the numbers will work out

    Of course they will. The only point is that around 75K have been sold, and we all already knew that.

    What's interesting is that 34K are not reflected in the report, which would 1,000,000% explain how we all could buy 1 for 24 hours with absolutely no problem, and then what was left disappeared in less than a minute once the HHL was lifted. Apparently, only 41K were available to us.

    Not 75K, not 67.5K, and not 60K. 41K, as reflected on that report. That's why what was left sold out in a minute. Not 5. Not 10.

  • MartinMartin Posts: 962 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I tend to agree that all 75k have been sold or spoken for. It make no sense otherwise. Stated max mintage 75k, we know there were advanced bulk sales, they did not sell out with a household limit. But seconds after the HHL was lifted they go sold out.

    They are a nice medal people seem to like them. I do feel they, will no way hold there original mint issue price.

    That being said I’m usually wrong on these things

    Martin

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 2:11PM

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jerseyralph said:

    @Bullsitter said:

    I am a little surprised by this lower than expected number of sales through Sunday. I would have expected a 65,000 plus number.

    It's sold out. My money is on the other 34K being bulk sales that are not reflected in that number. The 41K is likely only what they sold retail through the website last week.

    No one really thinks there are another 34K that are going to be magically appearing at 7:30 a.m. some morning, do they?

    Even if they didn't have all 75K ready to go, they would have accepted orders on a back order basis.

    If I am right, 34K in bulk sales is a disgrace, insofar as it would mean around half of the privys, and apparently the vast majority of signed COAs, went directly into dealer hands. It also means there is a huge overhang on the market.

    Don't worry. You're not. They limit the advance sale to 10 or 20% of the total. The advance sales should be in there as long as they weren't packaged differently.

    I'm calling BS. The ABPP is 10%. I wasn't aware of any limit at all on bulk sales, although it's reasonable to assume that there would be one for an issue like this. I was shocked that they allowed advance sales at all on this, although it explains why they weren't worried about returns.

    More importantly, it explains a giveaway to dealers, since they received guaranteed allocations of privys while we fought over what was left. You can cite to any published BS you want, but, just like minimum grades of 70 at TPGs weren't a thing, because published instructions said they weren't, pop reports demonstrated otherwise.

    The same applies here to a 20% limit on advance sales. We all saw, with our own eyes, these go Unavailable within 2 minutes of noon on 10/15. Never went to back order.

    Whatever is made available disappears in less than 30 seconds every morning at 7:30 a.m. No way 34K are unaccounted for, or unsold. If they did not find their way to that published sales report, they were sold ahead of time. 34/75 = 45%. Not 10%. Not 20%.

    The ABPP are the only people allowed advance bulk sales to my knowledge. Other bulk buyers don't have access until the HHL is lifted.

    This I do not know. What I do know is what has been widely reported -- that ABPP is limited to 10%. I honestly never heard of any limit on bulk, and would seriously doubt it's an additional 10%.

    My understanding is that anyone with the financial wherewithal can be a bulk buyer, but ABPP is limited to a select subset of the largest dealers. I also understand that while bulk purchases don't ship until the release date, I always thought the Mint takes orders ahead of time. Finally, I had no idea they took any advance dealer orders at all, ABPP or otherwise, on items with a HHL of 1, and clearly that is not the case.

    In any event, we can speculate all we want, but that report, and the hyper fast sell out after the HHL was lifted, honestly speaks for itself. Plenty of time passed between 12:02 p.m. on 10/15 and whenever the Mint compiled its data on 10/20. 34K medals did not just disappear or escape a count, and are not being held back for later sale.

    The most reasonable explanation is that 34K were sold through a channel not captured in that report. And that would be sales to dealers, ABPP or otherwise. Not a random subset of web and phone sales to retail buyers from 10/15-19.

  • coinercoiner Posts: 576 ✭✭✭✭

    @jshaulis said:
    Was available briefly this morning.

    It must have been in between refreshes for me - had to be 5 sec or less

  • coinercoiner Posts: 576 ✭✭✭✭

    dont rely on this weeks report - it most likely is very inaccurate as was mentioned here.

  • OnastoneOnastone Posts: 3,938 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 2:34PM

    There will be some packages that are never opened, just sold and resold, and held onto, and then sold again. Yes, this bubble wrapped envelope is supposed to have the mythical Flowing Hair Privy possibility inside!!! Never to see the light of day.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,019 ✭✭✭✭✭

    i fear the future if the mint keeps using bubble mailers on limited items and stuff people hunt first strike on where timing is everything

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MartinMartin Posts: 962 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jerseyralph said:

    @Bullsitter said:

    I am a little surprised by this lower than expected number of sales through Sunday. I would have expected a 65,000 plus number.

    It's sold out. My money is on the other 34K being bulk sales that are not reflected in that number. The 41K is likely only what they sold retail through the website last week.

    No one really thinks there are another 34K that are going to be magically appearing at 7:30 a.m. some morning, do they?

    Even if they didn't have all 75K ready to go, they would have accepted orders on a back order basis.

    If I am right, 34K in bulk sales is a disgrace, insofar as it would mean around half of the privys, and apparently the vast majority of signed COAs, went directly into dealer hands. It also means there is a huge overhang on the market.

    Don't worry. You're not. They limit the advance sale to 10 or 20% of the total. The advance sales should be in there as long as they weren't packaged differently.

    I'm calling BS. The ABPP is 10%. I wasn't aware of any limit at all on bulk sales, although it's reasonable to assume that there would be one for an issue like this. I was shocked that they allowed advance sales at all on this, although it explains why they weren't worried about returns.

    More importantly, it explains a giveaway to dealers, since they received guaranteed allocations of privys while we fought over what was left. You can cite to any published BS you want, but, just like minimum grades of 70 at TPGs weren't a thing, because published instructions said they weren't, pop reports demonstrated otherwise.

    The same applies here to a 20% limit on advance sales. We all saw, with our own eyes, these go Unavailable within 2 minutes of noon on 10/15. Never went to back order.

    Whatever is made available disappears in less than 30 seconds every morning at 7:30 a.m. No way 34K are unaccounted for, or unsold. If they did not find their way to that published sales report, they were sold ahead of time. 34/75 = 45%. Not 10%. Not 20%.

    The ABPP are the only people allowed advance bulk sales to my knowledge. Other bulk buyers don't have access until the HHL is lifted.

    This I do not know. What I do know is what has been widely reported -- that ABPP is limited to 10%. I honestly never heard of any limit on bulk, and would seriously doubt it's an additional 10%.

    My understanding is that anyone with the financial wherewithal can be a bulk buyer, but ABPP is limited to a select subset of the largest dealers. I also understand that while bulk purchases don't ship until the release date, I always thought the Mint takes orders ahead of time. Finally, I had no idea they took any advance dealer orders at all, ABPP or otherwise, on items with a HHL of 1, and clearly that is not the case.

    In any event, we can speculate all we want, but that report, and the hyper fast sell out after the HHL was lifted, honestly speaks for itself. Plenty of time passed between 12:02 p.m. on 10/15 and whenever the Mint compiled its data on 10/20. 34K medals did not just disappear or escape a count, and are not being held back for later sale.

    The most reasonable explanation is that 34K were sold through a channel not captured in that report. And that would be sales to dealers, ABPP or otherwise. Not a random subset of web and phone sales to retail buyers from 10/15-19.

    We need a congressional investigation

    Martin

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,972 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 2:55PM

    @Martin said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jerseyralph said:

    @Bullsitter said:

    I am a little surprised by this lower than expected number of sales through Sunday. I would have expected a 65,000 plus number.

    It's sold out. My money is on the other 34K being bulk sales that are not reflected in that number. The 41K is likely only what they sold retail through the website last week.

    No one really thinks there are another 34K that are going to be magically appearing at 7:30 a.m. some morning, do they?

    Even if they didn't have all 75K ready to go, they would have accepted orders on a back order basis.

    If I am right, 34K in bulk sales is a disgrace, insofar as it would mean around half of the privys, and apparently the vast majority of signed COAs, went directly into dealer hands. It also means there is a huge overhang on the market.

    Don't worry. You're not. They limit the advance sale to 10 or 20% of the total. The advance sales should be in there as long as they weren't packaged differently.

    I'm calling BS. The ABPP is 10%. I wasn't aware of any limit at all on bulk sales, although it's reasonable to assume that there would be one for an issue like this. I was shocked that they allowed advance sales at all on this, although it explains why they weren't worried about returns.

    More importantly, it explains a giveaway to dealers, since they received guaranteed allocations of privys while we fought over what was left. You can cite to any published BS you want, but, just like minimum grades of 70 at TPGs weren't a thing, because published instructions said they weren't, pop reports demonstrated otherwise.

    The same applies here to a 20% limit on advance sales. We all saw, with our own eyes, these go Unavailable within 2 minutes of noon on 10/15. Never went to back order.

    Whatever is made available disappears in less than 30 seconds every morning at 7:30 a.m. No way 34K are unaccounted for, or unsold. If they did not find their way to that published sales report, they were sold ahead of time. 34/75 = 45%. Not 10%. Not 20%.

    The ABPP are the only people allowed advance bulk sales to my knowledge. Other bulk buyers don't have access until the HHL is lifted.

    This I do not know. What I do know is what has been widely reported -- that ABPP is limited to 10%. I honestly never heard of any limit on bulk, and would seriously doubt it's an additional 10%.

    My understanding is that anyone with the financial wherewithal can be a bulk buyer, but ABPP is limited to a select subset of the largest dealers. I also understand that while bulk purchases don't ship until the release date, I always thought the Mint takes orders ahead of time. Finally, I had no idea they took any advance dealer orders at all, ABPP or otherwise, on items with a HHL of 1, and clearly that is not the case.

    In any event, we can speculate all we want, but that report, and the hyper fast sell out after the HHL was lifted, honestly speaks for itself. Plenty of time passed between 12:02 p.m. on 10/15 and whenever the Mint compiled its data on 10/20. 34K medals did not just disappear or escape a count, and are not being held back for later sale.

    The most reasonable explanation is that 34K were sold through a channel not captured in that report. And that would be sales to dealers, ABPP or otherwise. Not a random subset of web and phone sales to retail buyers from 10/15-19.

    We need a congressional investigation

    Martin

    Their members get investigated all the time ;)

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Onastone said:
    There will be some packages that are never opened, just sold and resold, and held onto, and then sold again. Yes, this bubble wrapped envelope is supposed to have the mythical Flowing Hair Privy possibility inside!!! Never to see the light of day.

    Maybe, maybe not. I happen to think they are going to be far easier to fake than the boxes, and that as the initial excitement dies down there is going to be no market for them.

    They are only worth around $350 now, and are vastly overpriced at that level. Every one that stays sealed is merely going to be its small part to keep a floor on what is surely going to be the coming correction in the price of the non-privys.

  • HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coiner said:

    @jshaulis said:
    Was available briefly this morning.

    It must have been in between refreshes for me - had to be 5 sec or less

    Have you ever noticed when you start your car all the lights in the dash light up for a couple of seconds then go out. That is what is happening here during their startup refresh. In the blink of an eye it lights up and goes out. No product available. “Keep on scratching”

    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
  • HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 4:34PM

    @coiner said:
    dont rely on this weeks report - it most likely is very inaccurate as was mentioned here.

    Just as in the past when grading companies delayed reporting massive quantities of 70’s the mint is
    Using smoke and mirrors to add to the speculation frenzy.
    “A fool and his money are easily parted”
    Please Note: future value will be melt.😈

    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
  • 1madman1madman Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Bullsitter said:

    I don’t want to burst anyone’s bubble with this release, but I had a feeling this first sales number was going to be like this. My theory is the mint did not strike 75,000 of these to start, and will now strike more due to demand and bump up the mintage. The mint did not want to risk melting tens of thousands of these things, so they minted conservatively. Only thing different in this release scenario is the mint didn’t accept orders to be placed on backorder status.

    The dead giveaway in this release was the fact that the household limit of 1 was almost reached by noon the next day? Not that many coins were available once the limit was taken off. And we know the mint doesn’t have ~67,000-70,000 user accounts with everyone buying 1 the first day, leaving around a few thousand available at noon the following day.

    I’m going to give 1 piece of advice, sell your non privy medals now because a flood of up to ~35,000 more are going to inundate the market.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,019 ✭✭✭✭✭

    not impossible! but improbable

    any news stories of transport drivers going over the edge between philly and memphis?

    perhaps 34,000 will show up in sealed boxes with tamper-proof tape across them similar to gsa!

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • pcgs69pcgs69 Posts: 4,322 ✭✭✭✭

    What a weird transition. Before release, there was probably 95% negative comments on this medal - ugly, overpriced, won't sell. Seemed like nobody would be buying it. Now all of a sudden 95% of the comments are positive on it and seems like everyone was actually buying it. Was it a poker move by the buyers?

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,019 ✭✭✭✭✭

    i think sales pace and $$ changed minds

    i still wouldn't have a privy. i'm not in on this but if i ordered one and got a privy, i'd sell the privy and buy a graded non-privy

    I like the idea, but I wish they would have taken the time to get a law for it as a coin(with original standards), and/or made it coin turn and left it as 2024 era pocket change low relief. the gold can be high relief. throw me a bone and make it a true throwback

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,108 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 5:26PM

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jerseyralph said:

    @Bullsitter said:

    I am a little surprised by this lower than expected number of sales through Sunday. I would have expected a 65,000 plus number.

    It's sold out. My money is on the other 34K being bulk sales that are not reflected in that number. The 41K is likely only what they sold retail through the website last week.

    No one really thinks there are another 34K that are going to be magically appearing at 7:30 a.m. some morning, do they?

    Even if they didn't have all 75K ready to go, they would have accepted orders on a back order basis.

    If I am right, 34K in bulk sales is a disgrace, insofar as it would mean around half of the privys, and apparently the vast majority of signed COAs, went directly into dealer hands. It also means there is a huge overhang on the market.

    Don't worry. You're not. They limit the advance sale to 10 or 20% of the total. The advance sales should be in there as long as they weren't packaged differently.

    I'm calling BS. The ABPP is 10%. I wasn't aware of any limit at all on bulk sales, although it's reasonable to assume that there would be one for an issue like this. I was shocked that they allowed advance sales at all on this, although it explains why they weren't worried about returns.

    More importantly, it explains a giveaway to dealers, since they received guaranteed allocations of privys while we fought over what was left. You can cite to any published BS you want, but, just like minimum grades of 70 at TPGs weren't a thing, because published instructions said they weren't, pop reports demonstrated otherwise.

    The same applies here to a 20% limit on advance sales. We all saw, with our own eyes, these go Unavailable within 2 minutes of noon on 10/15. Never went to back order.

    Whatever is made available disappears in less than 30 seconds every morning at 7:30 a.m. No way 34K are unaccounted for, or unsold. If they did not find their way to that published sales report, they were sold ahead of time. 34/75 = 45%. Not 10%. Not 20%.

    The ABPP are the only people allowed advance bulk sales to my knowledge. Other bulk buyers don't have access until the HHL is lifted.

    This I do not know. What I do know is what has been widely reported -- that ABPP is limited to 10%. I honestly never heard of any limit on bulk, and would seriously doubt it's an additional 10%.

    My understanding is that anyone with the financial wherewithal can be a bulk buyer, but ABPP is limited to a select subset of the largest dealers. I also understand that while bulk purchases don't ship until the release date, I always thought the Mint takes orders ahead of time. Finally, I had no idea they took any advance dealer orders at all, ABPP or otherwise, on items with a HHL of 1, and clearly that is not the case.

    In any event, we can speculate all we want, but that report, and the hyper fast sell out after the HHL was lifted, honestly speaks for itself. Plenty of time passed between 12:02 p.m. on 10/15 and whenever the Mint compiled its data on 10/20. 34K medals did not just disappear or escape a count, and are not being held back for later sale.

    The most reasonable explanation is that 34K were sold through a channel not captured in that report. And that would be sales to dealers, ABPP or otherwise. Not a random subset of web and phone sales to retail buyers from 10/15-19.

    I know 2 bulk buyers who are not ABPP. They are not allowed to buy any until the HHL is lifted. Normally. I don't know if the medals have different rules. They also get a ridiculous 5 or 10% discount while the ABPP pay a premium.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,108 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 5:30PM

    Technically, It has never been "sold out". It is just "unavailable".

    It's also possible they didn't strike all 75,000. Normally they would then go to backorder but they may not know when they would strike the rest.

    Eventually, we'll find out.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jerseyralph said:

    @Bullsitter said:

    I am a little surprised by this lower than expected number of sales through Sunday. I would have expected a 65,000 plus number.

    It's sold out. My money is on the other 34K being bulk sales that are not reflected in that number. The 41K is likely only what they sold retail through the website last week.

    No one really thinks there are another 34K that are going to be magically appearing at 7:30 a.m. some morning, do they?

    Even if they didn't have all 75K ready to go, they would have accepted orders on a back order basis.

    If I am right, 34K in bulk sales is a disgrace, insofar as it would mean around half of the privys, and apparently the vast majority of signed COAs, went directly into dealer hands. It also means there is a huge overhang on the market.

    Don't worry. You're not. They limit the advance sale to 10 or 20% of the total. The advance sales should be in there as long as they weren't packaged differently.

    I'm calling BS. The ABPP is 10%. I wasn't aware of any limit at all on bulk sales, although it's reasonable to assume that there would be one for an issue like this. I was shocked that they allowed advance sales at all on this, although it explains why they weren't worried about returns.

    More importantly, it explains a giveaway to dealers, since they received guaranteed allocations of privys while we fought over what was left. You can cite to any published BS you want, but, just like minimum grades of 70 at TPGs weren't a thing, because published instructions said they weren't, pop reports demonstrated otherwise.

    The same applies here to a 20% limit on advance sales. We all saw, with our own eyes, these go Unavailable within 2 minutes of noon on 10/15. Never went to back order.

    Whatever is made available disappears in less than 30 seconds every morning at 7:30 a.m. No way 34K are unaccounted for, or unsold. If they did not find their way to that published sales report, they were sold ahead of time. 34/75 = 45%. Not 10%. Not 20%.

    The ABPP are the only people allowed advance bulk sales to my knowledge. Other bulk buyers don't have access until the HHL is lifted.

    This I do not know. What I do know is what has been widely reported -- that ABPP is limited to 10%. I honestly never heard of any limit on bulk, and would seriously doubt it's an additional 10%.

    My understanding is that anyone with the financial wherewithal can be a bulk buyer, but ABPP is limited to a select subset of the largest dealers. I also understand that while bulk purchases don't ship until the release date, I always thought the Mint takes orders ahead of time. Finally, I had no idea they took any advance dealer orders at all, ABPP or otherwise, on items with a HHL of 1, and clearly that is not the case.

    In any event, we can speculate all we want, but that report, and the hyper fast sell out after the HHL was lifted, honestly speaks for itself. Plenty of time passed between 12:02 p.m. on 10/15 and whenever the Mint compiled its data on 10/20. 34K medals did not just disappear or escape a count, and are not being held back for later sale.

    The most reasonable explanation is that 34K were sold through a channel not captured in that report. And that would be sales to dealers, ABPP or otherwise. Not a random subset of web and phone sales to retail buyers from 10/15-19.

    I know 2 bulk buyers who are not ABPP. They are not allowed to buy any until the HHL is lifted. Normally. I don't know if the medals have different rules. They also get a ridiculous 5 or 10% discount while the ABPP pay a premium.

    Yes, I knew about the premium, because people pay for the attribution, so the Mint wants its piece. Again, as I said before, I was unaware of anything being available for advance purchase when the HHL is 1, so I think we are in new territory here.

    As far as bulk buyers not being allowed to buy in this case until the HHL was lifted, does that mean 34K were made available to them, queued up and ready to go, in the minute between when the HHL was lifted and they went Unavailable on the website, or were the orders accepted ahead of time?

    And would it make a difference? At the end of the day, they were easily available for 24 hours with a purchase limit of 1, they went Unavailable in the minute after the HHL was lifted, and 34K are not showing up on the sales report as of 5 days after the HHL was lifted. If they did not go to dealers, what would explain their absence from the sales report?

    That 34K, which includes the 7.5K that went to ABPP, simply has to be dealer purchases that were never made available to the general public. Either the Mint accepted orders for them ahead of time, or they queued them up and accepted them at the same time, or in the minute before, they were made available to masses when the HHL was lifted.

    Doesn't matter to me, as a prospective buyer, whether the Mint accepted those orders a week before the on sale date, or even contemporaneous with opening the website to public orders with no HHL, if those orders can be processed for hundreds or thousands of units at a pop, without having to go through the same order engine the public has to.

    Because, either way, the bulk buyers would be getting first dibs, after the 1 per HHL in the first 24 hours, with the rest of us fighting over whatever scraps are left. What you are suggesting actually makes more sense than what I'm saying, insofar as there would be no preset limit on what they can buy.

    ABPP gets 10%, the public gets whatever it gets under the HHL in the first 24 hours, and the bulk buyers get whatever they want, with no limit, up to the mintage limit after that. Given the lottery ticket here, they wanted all they could get.

    Which ended up being 35%, plus the 10% going to the ABPP, after whatever squeaked through the website while those bulk orders were being processed, through a different system with much higher order limits than we see on the web, or than retail phone reps have available to them, which is likely identical to what we see on the web.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @1madman said:

    @Bullsitter said:

    I don’t want to burst anyone’s bubble with this release, but I had a feeling this first sales number was going to be like this. My theory is the mint did not strike 75,000 of these to start, and will now strike more due to demand and bump up the mintage. The mint did not want to risk melting tens of thousands of these things, so they minted conservatively. Only thing different in this release scenario is the mint didn’t accept orders to be placed on backorder status.

    The dead giveaway in this release was the fact that the household limit of 1 was almost reached by noon the next day? Not that many coins were available once the limit was taken off. And we know the mint doesn’t have ~67,000-70,000 user accounts with everyone buying 1 the first day, leaving around a few thousand available at noon the following day.

    I’m going to give 1 piece of advice, sell your non privy medals now because a flood of up to ~35,000 more are going to inundate the market.

    With all due respect, you are 1,000,000% wrong. Sorry to burst your bubble.

    On the rare occasions that actually happens, the item goes to Back Order, rather than Unavailable. The Mint continues to take orders beyond stock on hand, and gives a delayed delivery date.

    That did not happen here. Do not hold your breath for 34,000 to be made available from the Mint.

    There is no "dead giveaway." What we observed was 26,500 being gobbled up in an instant by bulk buyers at noon on 10/15. This, plus the 7.5K that previously went to ABPP buyers, accounts for the missing 34K in the sales report.

    Why don't you think it's possible for the Mint to sell 41K, one at time, in 24 hours? Because it looks like that is exactly what happened here, with their groovy new improved website, robust demand, wide YouTube publicity, lottery ticket, etc.

    Everything isn't a conspiracy. Just let us know when you are ready to concede 34K aren't being held back for a rainy day, in contravention to the way they have ever sold anything on the internet (i.e., not making the maximum mintage available for sale on the release date). NEVER happened before, regardless of how they anticipated demand, or how many they made at any given point in time.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 6:35PM

    @pcgs69 said:
    What a weird transition. Before release, there was probably 95% negative comments on this medal - ugly, overpriced, won't sell. Seemed like nobody would be buying it. Now all of a sudden 95% of the comments are positive on it and seems like everyone was actually buying it. Was it a poker move by the buyers?

    No. Once the lottery was announced, people pooping all over the privy mark recognized that anything the Mint puts out with a mintage of 1794 would have legs, so they wanted to take a shot. Or two. Or three.

    That said, I still think demand for non-privys at $200+ is a mirage, and will disappear once the hunt for privys ends, and dealers and vest pocket dealers rush for the exit on a one-off one ounce silver medal (as opposed to the first in an ongoing series like ASEs, Morgan and Peace Dollars, etc.).

    Yes, they are gone, gone, gone from the Mint, but the market is going to soon be flooded with non-privys that would still be sitting in the Mint's warehouse if people didn't need to buy them for a 2.4% shot at a privy. Those buyers, in bulk, aren't keeping these indefinitely.

    Once the excitement dies down, it will be surprising if there is demand at current prices, or even the Mint's release price, given how many are bound to hit the market from dealers and individuals. Without the 34K from the Mint @1madman is waiting for.

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,115 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Maybe they are planning a second production run? Any chance of that?

  • BullsitterBullsitter Posts: 5,617 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 23, 2024 1:27AM

    @1madman said:

    @Bullsitter said:

    I don’t want to burst anyone’s bubble with this release, but I had a feeling this first sales number was going to be like this. My theory is the mint did not strike 75,000 of these to start, and will now strike more due to demand and bump up the mintage. The mint did not want to risk melting tens of thousands of these things, so they minted conservatively. Only thing different in this release scenario is the mint didn’t accept orders to be placed on backorder status.

    The dead giveaway in this release was the fact that the household limit of 1 was almost reached by noon the next day? Not that many coins were available once the limit was taken off. And we know the mint doesn’t have ~67,000-70,000 user accounts with everyone buying 1 the first day, leaving around a few thousand available at noon the following day.

    I’m going to give 1 piece of advice, sell your non privy medals now because a flood of up to ~35,000 more are going to inundate the market.

    .
    .

    You didn't burst my bubble, all I did was post the Mint info.

  • OnastoneOnastone Posts: 3,938 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Doesn't this change the percentage of chance to get a privy? If 1794 privies were peppered into 40,000 not 75,000?? Surely they wouldn't have any privies in the missing 35,000....would they? I'm assuming the privies were minted first.

  • knovak1976knovak1976 Posts: 402 ✭✭✭✭

    Is it possible someone with some pull can get the director of the mint to tell us what is actually going on and how these medals were actually distributed? As a buying public and for the US Mint to be fair and transparent, shouldn’t we have a right to know how the allocation process works(ed) and also have a timeline of sales to see what is going on? This might hopefully quash all speculation….. Cheers, karl

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,108 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @knovak1976 said:
    Is it possible someone with some pull can get the director of the mint to tell us what is actually going on and how these medals were actually distributed? As a buying public and for the US Mint to be fair and transparent, shouldn’t we have a right to know how the allocation process works(ed) and also have a timeline of sales to see what is going on? This might hopefully quash all speculation….. Cheers, karl

    The numismatic press could probably ask and get an answer.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,108 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @1madman said:

    @Bullsitter said:

    I don’t want to burst anyone’s bubble with this release, but I had a feeling this first sales number was going to be like this. My theory is the mint did not strike 75,000 of these to start, and will now strike more due to demand and bump up the mintage. The mint did not want to risk melting tens of thousands of these things, so they minted conservatively. Only thing different in this release scenario is the mint didn’t accept orders to be placed on backorder status.

    The dead giveaway in this release was the fact that the household limit of 1 was almost reached by noon the next day? Not that many coins were available once the limit was taken off. And we know the mint doesn’t have ~67,000-70,000 user accounts with everyone buying 1 the first day, leaving around a few thousand available at noon the following day.

    I’m going to give 1 piece of advice, sell your non privy medals now because a flood of up to ~35,000 more are going to inundate the market.

    I think this is a very likely explanation. The quoted mintage is the max. They are within their rights to not make them all at once especially if they expect lower demand or they are having trouble acquiring blanks.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,108 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 23, 2024 4:43AM

    @pcgs69 said:
    What a weird transition. Before release, there was probably 95% negative comments on this medal - ugly, overpriced, won't sell. Seemed like nobody would be buying it. Now all of a sudden 95% of the comments are positive on it and seems like everyone was actually buying it. Was it a poker move by the buyers?

    To be fair, half of the 95% negative comments came from one person. Lol.

    I'm also not sure the same people who made the negative comments are the ones saying the positive comments. Most people don't beat the dead horse forever. They didn't like the medal, posted that. And then didn't buy it. You now have people who did buy it happily showing off their prize.

  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,641 ✭✭✭

    Still available this morning but gone

  • coinercoiner Posts: 576 ✭✭✭✭

    flipped for a brief few seconds, had to be less than 10 available this morning

  • WQuarterFreddieWQuarterFreddie Posts: 2,666 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pf70collector said:
    Still available this morning but gone

    Just a blip. Already have one in my cart but couldn't get it.

  • M4MadnessM4Madness Posts: 325 ✭✭✭✭

    Perhaps I'm the odd man out here. I had one in my cart on the first day, then decided I didn't want it and removed it. I figured the chances of a privy were pretty low, and I absolutely do not buy coins to flip, so that ruled out the regular medal. Maybe I'm weird, but I figured I'd leave mine at the mint for someone who wanted it.

  • GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 17,309 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Pop Report as of October 23, 2024...............

    108 new non-privy graded
    19 new privy graded......wonder where they have been hiding?
    I would love to know why the First Strike submissions are grading with an abysmal 61.4% MS69 rate.



  • WQuarterFreddieWQuarterFreddie Posts: 2,666 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @M4Madness said:
    Perhaps I'm the odd man out here. I had one in my cart on the first day, then decided I didn't want it and removed it. I figured the chances of a privy were pretty low, and I absolutely do not buy coins to flip, so that ruled out the regular medal. Maybe I'm weird, but I figured I'd leave mine at the mint for someone who wanted it.

    Not weird at all. In fact it demonstrates discipline and focus on your wants and desires concerning your collection.

    Kudos to you! 😎

  • Danno44Danno44 Posts: 179 ✭✭✭

    What about the US Mint holding back medals for the Whitman Show in November?
    The release of the gold flowing hair coincides with this show, would seem they would hold some silver medals back for that show to me.
    Doesn’t matter much to me, I played the lottery and sold my non privy within 2 hours of opening the bag.

  • coinercoiner Posts: 576 ✭✭✭✭

    lets now see what the USM does with the GOLD version.
    As it stands now it doesnt look like any special privy or anything else for that matter - other than 17,500 mintage.
    However, if you think about it, its a ~$63,000,000 offering (17,500 x ~3600) and this Silver Medal offering was only $7,800,000 total for them.
    They would be stupid NOT to do something special, if they do - announced within the next week to two weeks.
    The privy wasnt announced for the silver until about 2-3 weeks before the release date, if we see any special news for the GOLD version - it would come soon.

  • coinercoiner Posts: 576 ✭✭✭✭

    their purpose is to SELL as much as possible. $7,800,000 is peanuts.
    $63,000,000+ is the big dog.

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,972 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Goldbully said:
    Pop Report as of October 23, 2024...............

    108 new non-privy graded
    19 new privy graded......wonder where they have been hiding?
    I would love to know why the First Strike submissions are grading with an abysmal 61.4% MS69 rate.


    There are 1794 privy's and many will end up graded over the next few weeks. A large number are still in process at NGC, PCGS, CAC, etc.

    The first strikes and FDOI are grading 69 at a fairly normal rate for moderns. The other 70's in the list are those special advance release dealers could just say 70 only, so that batch is nothing to use for reference. Note there are no 68's so mint quality is actually pretty good.

    The ones I saw had tiny shiny hits or specks that most do not see looking at the medal unless with a magnifying glass and tilting it in various positions under good lights. These come back 69 as experienced graders see these easily.

  • MetroDMetroD Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coiner said:
    lets now see what the USM does with the GOLD version.
    As it stands now it doesnt look like any special privy or anything else for that matter - other than 17,500 mintage.
    However, if you think about it, its a ~$63,000,000 offering (17,500 x ~3600) and this Silver Medal offering was only $7,800,000 total for them.
    They would be stupid NOT to do something special, if they do - announced within the next week to two weeks.
    The privy wasnt announced for the silver until about 2-3 weeks before the release date, if we see any special news for the GOLD version - it would come soon.

    Looks like the Mint is planning some sort of auction.


    Source: https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/united-states-mint-230th-anniversary-flowing-hair-silver-medal-now-on-sale

    Pure speculation on my part, but perhaps something like the 'AE @ D&D' auction (e.g., 1st struck, 2nd struck, etc.)???

  • fathomfathom Posts: 1,685 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 23, 2024 6:45AM

    In the normal course of business, a supplier does not keep an impending run of product or allocation a secret from a distributor.

    If the big sellers are offering to buy the release at $175 then they are assuming no more will be released or available, no?

  • HalfDimeHalfDime Posts: 62 ✭✭✭

    It makes no sense to have 1794 privy, and also not strike and sell all 75k at the same time.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ProofCollection said:
    Maybe they are planning a second production run? Any chance of that?

    None. Zero. Nada.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Onastone said:
    Doesn't this change the percentage of chance to get a privy? If 1794 privies were peppered into 40,000 not 75,000?? Surely they wouldn't have any privies in the missing 35,000....would they? I'm assuming the privies were minted first.

    Yes, it would, but no, it won't. Because there is no missing 34K.

    They are missing from the sales report, but, trust me, they have been minted and sold. If this was not the case, you'd be able to order as many as you want from the website on a Back Order basis. Also, if 34K was sitting around waiting to be minted or sold, why wouldn't the 1794 with privys be seeded among them as well?

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 23, 2024 7:23AM

    @knovak1976 said:
    Is it possible someone with some pull can get the director of the mint to tell us what is actually going on and how these medals were actually distributed? As a buying public and for the US Mint to be fair and transparent, shouldn’t we have a right to know how the allocation process works(ed) and also have a timeline of sales to see what is going on? This might hopefully quash all speculation….. Cheers, karl

    Sure. Because if they were actually doing anything shady, they'd freely admit it to "someone with some pull" without a subpoena, because they'd want it all over the internet. Because "we have a right to know." 🤣🤣🤣

    Bottom line -- they can pretty do whatever they want. And, apparently, they have.

    Common folk had a 2.4% chance, with a purchase limit of 1. Dealers had a 2.4% shot, with a purchase limit of several hundred or more. Meaning they were each guaranteed to get several.

    And the signed COA distribution appears to have been anything but random, given how a single dealer has several with consecutive numbers. With a 0.3% chance of getting any, the odds of that happening organically are exactly zero.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MetroD said:

    @coiner said:
    lets now see what the USM does with the GOLD version.
    As it stands now it doesnt look like any special privy or anything else for that matter - other than 17,500 mintage.
    However, if you think about it, its a ~$63,000,000 offering (17,500 x ~3600) and this Silver Medal offering was only $7,800,000 total for them.
    They would be stupid NOT to do something special, if they do - announced within the next week to two weeks.
    The privy wasnt announced for the silver until about 2-3 weeks before the release date, if we see any special news for the GOLD version - it would come soon.

    Looks like the Mint is planning some sort of auction.


    Source: https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/united-states-mint-230th-anniversary-flowing-hair-silver-medal-now-on-sale

    Pure speculation on my part, but perhaps something like the 'AE @ D&D' auction (e.g., 1st struck, 2nd struck, etc.)???

    That's EXACTLY what it sounds like, and is the "something special" they are doing with them. No privy giveaway for the dealers with these. Those "special" coins will sell at a huge premium, with the Mint capturing all of it for themselves, less what they give to Stack's for hosting and promoting the auction.

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,972 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    @MetroD said:

    @coiner said:
    lets now see what the USM does with the GOLD version.
    As it stands now it doesnt look like any special privy or anything else for that matter - other than 17,500 mintage.
    However, if you think about it, its a ~$63,000,000 offering (17,500 x ~3600) and this Silver Medal offering was only $7,800,000 total for them.
    They would be stupid NOT to do something special, if they do - announced within the next week to two weeks.
    The privy wasnt announced for the silver until about 2-3 weeks before the release date, if we see any special news for the GOLD version - it would come soon.

    Looks like the Mint is planning some sort of auction.


    Source: https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/united-states-mint-230th-anniversary-flowing-hair-silver-medal-now-on-sale

    Pure speculation on my part, but perhaps something like the 'AE @ D&D' auction (e.g., 1st struck, 2nd struck, etc.)???

    That's EXACTLY what it sounds like, and is the "something special" they are doing with them. No privy giveaway for the dealers with these. Those "special" coins will sell at a huge premium, with the Mint capturing all of it for themselves, less what they give to Stack's for hosting and promoting the auction.

    If they want to really make money, these special coins will have a privy on them and the bidding will go crazy.

  • OLCOLC Posts: 401 ✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    @OLC said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @OLC said:
    So they don't count dealer sales anymore.

    They'll count it somewhere. Just not on that report.

    So the report is completely worthless and inaccurate.

    Well, yeah. They sold out at 12:02 p.m. on 10/15, with tiny numbers popping up, and immediately selling out, most mornings at 7:30 a.m.

    Do you need an official Mint sales report to know that ~75K have been sold? Does this report honestly make you think they held back 34K that are going to be made available at some point in the future?

    If not, yes, the report is completely worthless and inaccurate. I happen to think it is accurate as far as it goes, which is to reflect retail sales via web and phone, but not any sales via other channels (dealers, and maybe Mint retail sales locations -- Philly, Denver and DC).

    I wouldn't bet a lot of money that all 75,000 have been made or sold. They don't always make maximum mintage. They don't always go to backorder status when they sell out of what had been made. Sometimes they will make more and sometimes they don't. Until they say that 75,000 ish of these have been sold on that sales report It is possible that at any time 34,000 more of these may show up on their website. I've seen it happen before with other items. Even later in the year than this.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file