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U.S. Mint 2024 lottery "230th Anniversary Flowing Hair Silver Medal".

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  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,972 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2024 7:35AM

    @Goldbully said:
    Pop Report as of October 19, 2024.............privies seem to have maxed out.


    Interesting how there is not one MS69 in all those tribute submissions.


    Every one of those received "special treatment" and were able to specify 70 only for grading and likely did not have to pay the full fee either, just some undisclosed lower fee to review the coins that were not slabbed and graded. They also got special treatment and many received the medals before the peon masses. Chances are they may also have paid some extra for expedited grading.

    Yes, those submitters have to be approved, meet special requirements, sign non-disclosures, and do a major amount of monetary business at the Mint and at PCGS for all these special privileges, but by getting into the game first, they can get higher selling prices while demand is high, and supply is low. Money talks.

  • fathomfathom Posts: 1,685 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2024 7:28AM

    Prices on ebay are ridiculous.

    It's a decent medal, homage to numismatics, a win for the Mint.

  • MtW124MtW124 Posts: 414 ✭✭✭✭

    Mine arrived today. Almost opened it then it hit me. Not!

  • smokincoinsmokincoin Posts: 2,636 ✭✭✭

    Looks real nice. Thanks for sharing @joepabike :)

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2024 9:12AM

    @Goldminers said:
    Your medal looks quite nice compared to some I have seen photos of.

    The sealed listings mean they have not opened the bubble wrap mailer. No way to open that without it being obvious it was tampered with.

    Just give the scammers a minute to figure it out. I have a feeling these bubble mailers, that are likely widely available at office supply stores, are going to make it easy. How difficult will it be to fake a Ground Advantage mailing label?

    They do this with old proof sets. It will be super easy with these.

  • HalfDimeHalfDime Posts: 62 ✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    Not true. The Mint has made an excess to compensate for damaged coins/medals. I have never known them to sell more than the limit except one time, by mistake, when they sold the excess mintage.

    Do you remember the mint website crashing when everybody went on to order the lowest mintage stuff and couldn't? How the mint put up the sold out sign even after people tried for forty minutes and couldn't get past the first page? How you might get to the credit card page and you hit order, then it crashed on you? How the mint cancelled all of the orders from flippers they could that were skirting around the household limits? How a confirmation might take a day since they had to do it all manually?

    No, I guess none of that happened.

  • cheezhedcheezhed Posts: 5,817 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Got mine today no privy.

    Many happy BST transactions
  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2024 12:13PM

    @HalfDime said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    Not true. The Mint has made an excess to compensate for damaged coins/medals. I have never known them to sell more than the limit except one time, by mistake, when they sold the excess mintage.

    Do you remember the mint website crashing when everybody went on to order the lowest mintage stuff and couldn't? How the mint put up the sold out sign even after people tried for forty minutes and couldn't get past the first page? How you might get to the credit card page and you hit order, then it crashed on you? How the mint cancelled all of the orders from flippers they could that were skirting around the household limits? How a confirmation might take a day since they had to do it all manually?

    No, I guess none of that happened.

    Yes, it all happened. And those cancelled orders are the ones that later showed up at 7:30 a.m. They never intentionally over sold, and then cancelled perfectly legitimate, accepted orders, for no reason other than they over sold and had no stock.

    They put up the Sold Out notice when they ran out of stock for sale. Not after they sold 110% of available stock.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2024 12:21PM

    @morgansforever said:
    Offered $3k for a privy marked piece and was declined. I guess nearly 29x your investment isn't enough.

    Not if the market is 39x. It's supply and demand. Not a fixed multiple above cost that a prospective buyer considers reasonable.

    Would you expect someone to sell you a $10,000 winning lottery ticket that cost $2 for $5,800, because 2900x is a healthy return on their investment? Same concept. No reason for anyone to leave anything on the bone for you here, in order to share their good fortune with you.

    You obviously think there is upside at $3K. So do they. One of you is going to be right, and one wrong. Or, you'll both be wrong, and the seller will lower their expectations while you raise yours. This is how markets work.

  • HalfDimeHalfDime Posts: 62 ✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    Yes, it all happened. And those cancelled orders are the ones that later showed up at 7:30 a.m. They never intentionally over sold, and then cancelled perfectly legitimate, accepted orders, for no reason other than they over sold and had no stock.

    The put up the Sold Out notice when they ran out of stock for sale. Not after they sold 110% of available stock.

    The mint had little control over inventory and had a crashing website that barely worked under load, that is why they went to the "waiting room" that they have today. Yes, they put up the sold out on the website, only to have to open orders back up when flippers canceled on them when pre-sales weren't what they expected.

  • Em7Em7 Posts: 38 ✭✭✭

    Mine arrived today, no privy mark.

  • robecrobec Posts: 6,749 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @JimTyler said:

    @robec said:
    According to tracking mine was due to arrive Monday the 21st, but instead was delivered Friday the 18th. Unfortunately, not a Privy.

    Why does she have cleavage at the base of her neck

    Shoulder and side shot.

  • M4MadnessM4Madness Posts: 325 ✭✭✭✭

    At least someone has a sense of humor. Lol!

    https://www.ebay.com/itm/315867753471

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2024 12:20PM

    @HalfDime said:

    @NJCoin said:

    Yes, it all happened. And those cancelled orders are the ones that later showed up at 7:30 a.m. They never intentionally over sold, and then cancelled perfectly legitimate, accepted orders, for no reason other than they over sold and had no stock.

    The put up the Sold Out notice when they ran out of stock for sale. Not after they sold 110% of available stock.

    The mint had little control over inventory and had a crashing website that barely worked under load, that is why they went to the "waiting room" that they have today. Yes, they put up the sold out on the website, only to have to open orders back up when flippers canceled on them when pre-sales weren't what they expected.

    No. They put up the Sold Out sign when they sold out.

    They opened orders back up when they returned items to stock after they cancelled ineligible orders, bad credit cards, etc. Just like they have been doing for the past few days, only on a larger scale because they have fewer people screwing around since they are now allowing dealers to buy in advance.

    As well as when flippers cancelled back ordered orders when the flip went away before items shipped. Or after, since, once upon a time, they allowed 30 days for returns as opposed to today's 7 days.

    Nothing you are saying has anything to do with the Mint unilaterally cancelling valid, accepted orders due to no stock. That didn't used to be a thing, and I honestly don't think it is one now, since at least a few medals have been available every single day since they went on sale. I think there is another, undisclosed reason the order in question was cancelled after being accepted.

  • HalfDimeHalfDime Posts: 62 ✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    Just like they have been doing for the past few days, only on a larger scale because they have fewer people screwing around since they are now allowing dealers to buy in advance.

    When do you expect these medals to sell for $60 in the aftermarket? So far that chance seems like somewhere between slim and none.

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,115 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Got one of two coins today. I was able to open the bubble mailer in a way that I think I could send it to PCGS and they would not know that it was opened.

    No privy. :(

    I am considering returning mine. It was damaged in shipping. Maybe I'll still send the coin in, from what I can tell it is an 70.




  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,115 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2024 12:52PM

    Wait a second... is this what all COAs look like or is mine signed? It's definitely not hand signed, but the mint website doesn't say hand signed... Nor is mine a privy and the mint website says that only the signed COAs come with privy coins.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,019 ✭✭✭✭✭

    the mint has cancelled orders in the past citing not available

    it has happened even though it makes no sense

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • ifthevamzarockinifthevamzarockin Posts: 8,862 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ProofCollection said:
    Wait a second... is this what all COAs look like or is mine signed?

    That is what they all look like, the others will be hand signed and numbered. ;)

  • Some_of_itSome_of_it Posts: 133 ✭✭✭

    My order was confirmed at about 8pm PST on the 15th. Shipped yesterday. Would like to add one of each to my NGC registry custom medal set. Fingers crossed but do not plan to over pay just to get a privy. Prices will come down in time.

  • M4MadnessM4Madness Posts: 325 ✭✭✭✭

    @ProofCollection said:
    I am considering returning mine. It was damaged in shipping.

    If you do decide to return it to the mint, I'll give you your money back for it. I had one in my cart an hour after ordering began the first day and couldn't bring myself to the pull the trigger. Now I'm kind of digging the design and wishing I'd have purchased one. Lol!

  • HalfDimeHalfDime Posts: 62 ✭✭✭

    Empty packaging can be purchased off of Ebay for $15. They won't give you a replacement in all likelihood.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2024 1:51PM

    @HalfDime said:

    @NJCoin said:

    Just like they have been doing for the past few days, only on a larger scale because they have fewer people screwing around since they are now allowing dealers to buy in advance.

    When do you expect these medals to sell for $60 in the aftermarket? So far that chance seems like somewhere between slim and none.

    Agreed, there seems to be demand at $150+. TBD whether it sustains once people are done playing the lottery.

    If dealers are able to liquidate what they had to buy to get the privys, I will turn out to have been wrong. Too soon to tell 4 days after release, but I also bought a little too much into the theory that it being a medal rather than a coin, with a 75K mintage at $104, would stifle demand.

    Please remind me, where were you on medal vs. coin?.

    Edit: Never mind -- I was confusing you with @coiner on the coin vs. medal issue. I still think $104 was aggressive for a medal, even an apparently popular one like this, with a mintage of 75K. And that the only reason they sold out at all, and certainly as quickly as they did, was the lottery ticket.

    Once the market settles, we'll see if there is actual demand for 73,206 at current prices, or above. I sincerely doubt it. If I am wrong, I'll admit it. $60, which is 2x spot, seemed about right for something with tens of thousands being distributed as part of a lottery. Maybe not. Let's see where we are in a month or two, after the gold coins are released without privys, and they don't sell out with a 17,500 mintage and a $1,000 premium to spot gold.

  • joepabikejoepabike Posts: 19 ✭✭
    edited October 19, 2024 1:48PM

    @ProofCollection said:
    Got one of two coins today. I was able to open the bubble mailer in a way that I think I could send it to PCGS and they would not know that it was opened.

    No privy. :(

    I am considering returning mine. It was damaged in shipping. Maybe I'll still send the coin in, from what I can tell it is an 70.
    ...

    Bummer that your packaging was damaged. As the other poster observed, there are 10+ sets of boxes + COAs on ebay for approx. $15/ea.: https://www.ebay.com/itm/167023468068?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0&ssspo=lABWo8URTAO&sssrc=2047675&ssuid=qDsOnwIzSG6&widget_ver=artemis&media=COPY .

    Those of you who've received yours, is the boxing better/equal/worse than what the Mint has offered previously?

  • HalfDimeHalfDime Posts: 62 ✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    Please remind me, where were you on medal vs. coin?.

    I said since the original coin this represents didn't have anything on the obverse or reverse other than the year, it resembled a medal so this design would have no bearing on it selling at coin prices. Now if the mint pulled this with a different coin design that needed to have the denomination on it visible, then it would probably do badly like a medal. I am sure that the mint is giddy over the success of this release, and will attempt to duplicate it again. If they do it with a coin that has a denomination visible, I think it could backfire on them.

    However next year they could do the 230th anniversary of the Draped Bust design that has no denomination, and it would sell as well as this one. They could have also done the 220th anniversary of the 1804 design, again it has no visible denomination.

  • coinercoiner Posts: 576 ✭✭✭✭

    For the individual that received a PRIVY coin - was there any other differences in packaging or COA?
    I just wondered how these were "salted" into the 75,000 from the production facility. We know that a third party ships these. But it would be interested to know if a certain percentage (2.xx%) per production box (50 or 100) were salted in? and they are pulled and shipped as they come?

  • Cranium_Basher73Cranium_Basher73 Posts: 3,193 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The head swelling is just getting worse.....

    Throw a coin enough times, and suppose one day it lands on its edge.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2024 5:20PM

    @coiner said:
    For the individual that received a PRIVY coin - was there any other differences in packaging or COA?
    I just wondered how these were "salted" into the 75,000 from the production facility. We know that a third party ships these. But it would be interested to know if a certain percentage (2.xx%) per production box (50 or 100) were salted in? and they are pulled and shipped as they come?

    Yes, this is exactly how it worked. Packed into boxes of 100 at the Mint, or wherever the Mint sends raw product to be matched with COAs and placed into containers, with the privys salted in. This is how dealers buying quantity were guaranteed a number of privys.

    Assuming people at the fulfillment center are not corrupt, and are not opening boxes to pull winners for themselves, they are just pulling from these boxes of 100 to toss into the polys. There is no difference until you open the box. Otherwise, it wouldn't be a random chance, would it?

    Someone already posted an image of the signed COA. It's exactly the same as the all the other COAs, other than it is hand signed and numbered in a blank space on the regular COA. And, it says under Specifications that it has a "230" Privy Mark, while the regular COA says "None" under Mint Mark.

    Since people have already reported receiving them, and it would be a major scandal if they were not actually leaving the distribution center in poly bags, it's fair to assume no one is screwing around at the fulfillment center, and we have the same 2.4% chance the Big Boys do.

    It's just that we literally have a 2.4% chance on 1 medal, while they each have a 2.4% chance on several hundred each, and 7500 in total on the Advance Releases, plus what they were allowed to buy through the bulk purchase program. It's a fair assumption that a significant percent of privys, 20%, 30%, maybe more, went to dealers, guaranteed, in 100 count boxes.

    How do I know this? Because we know nowhere near 67,500 were sold one at a time in the 24 hours after release, and yet what was left was gobbled up in a minute or two once the HHL was lifted. This implies a helluva lot more than 7500 (the Advance Release limit) went to dealers before the balance was released to us, one at a time, at noon on the 15th.

    Since we don't have the opportunity to buy in quantity, we did not have the opportunity to be guaranteed to score a privy or two or three, even if we were willing to take a sealed box of 100. The sealed poly is only sealed after someone at the fulfillment center placed an unsealed box inside it.

  • jwittenjwitten Posts: 5,144 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If it’s a truly random mix, dealers were not guaranteed a privy. Yes, the odds are obviously in their favor, but it’s not a guarantee.

    @NJCoin said:

    @coiner said:
    For the individual that received a PRIVY coin - was there any other differences in packaging or COA?
    I just wondered how these were "salted" into the 75,000 from the production facility. We know that a third party ships these. But it would be interested to know if a certain percentage (2.xx%) per production box (50 or 100) were salted in? and they are pulled and shipped as they come?

    Yes, this is exactly how it worked. Packed into boxes of 100 at the Mint, or wherever the Mint sends raw product to be matched with COAs and placed into containers, with the privys salted in. This is how dealers buying quantity were guaranteed a number of privys.

    Assuming people at the fulfillment center are not corrupt, and are not opening boxes to pull winners for themselves, they are just pulling from these boxes of 100 to toss into the polys. There is no difference until you open the box. Otherwise, it wouldn't be a random chance, would it?

    Someone already posted an image of the signed COA. It's exactly the same as the all the other COAs, other than it is hand signed and numbered in a blank space on the regular COA. And, it says under Specifications that it has a "230" Privy Mark, while the regular COA says "None" under Mint Mark.

    Since people have already reported receiving them, and it would be a major scandal if they were not actually leaving the distribution center in poly bags, it's fair to assume no one is screwing around at the fulfillment center, and we have the same 2.4% chance the Big Boys do.

    It's just that we literally have a 2.4% chance on 1 medal, while they each have a 2.4% chance on several hundred each, and 7500 in total on the Advance Releases, plus what they were allowed to buy through the bulk purchase program. It's a fair assumption that a significant percent of privys, 20%, 30%, maybe more, went to dealers, guaranteed, in 100 count boxes.

    How do I know this? Because we know nowhere near 67,500 were sold one at a time in the 24 hours after release, and yet what was left was gobbled up in a minute or two once the HHL was lifted. This implies a helluva lot more than 7500 (the Advance Release limit) went to dealers before the balance was released to us, one at a time, at noon on the 15th.

    Since we don't have the opportunity to buy in quantity, we did not have the opportunity to be guaranteed to score a privy or two or three, even if we were willing to take a sealed box of 100. The sealed poly is only sealed after someone at the fulfillment center placed an unsealed box inside it.

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,969 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coiner said:
    For the individual that received a PRIVY coin - was there any other differences in packaging or COA?
    I just wondered how these were "salted" into the 75,000 from the production facility. We know that a third party ships these. But it would be interested to know if a certain percentage (2.xx%) per production box (50 or 100) were salted in? and they are pulled and shipped as they come?

    The COA is different. One notes the privy mark on the COA, most are blank at that spot in the "specs".

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2024 8:05PM

    @jwitten said:
    If it’s a truly random mix, dealers were not guaranteed a privy. Yes, the odds are obviously in their favor, but it’s not a guarantee.

    @NJCoin said:

    @coiner said:
    For the individual that received a PRIVY coin - was there any other differences in packaging or COA?
    I just wondered how these were "salted" into the 75,000 from the production facility. We know that a third party ships these. But it would be interested to know if a certain percentage (2.xx%) per production box (50 or 100) were salted in? and they are pulled and shipped as they come?

    Yes, this is exactly how it worked. Packed into boxes of 100 at the Mint, or wherever the Mint sends raw product to be matched with COAs and placed into containers, with the privys salted in. This is how dealers buying quantity were guaranteed a number of privys.

    Assuming people at the fulfillment center are not corrupt, and are not opening boxes to pull winners for themselves, they are just pulling from these boxes of 100 to toss into the polys. There is no difference until you open the box. Otherwise, it wouldn't be a random chance, would it?

    Someone already posted an image of the signed COA. It's exactly the same as the all the other COAs, other than it is hand signed and numbered in a blank space on the regular COA. And, it says under Specifications that it has a "230" Privy Mark, while the regular COA says "None" under Mint Mark.

    Since people have already reported receiving them, and it would be a major scandal if they were not actually leaving the distribution center in poly bags, it's fair to assume no one is screwing around at the fulfillment center, and we have the same 2.4% chance the Big Boys do.

    It's just that we literally have a 2.4% chance on 1 medal, while they each have a 2.4% chance on several hundred each, and 7500 in total on the Advance Releases, plus what they were allowed to buy through the bulk purchase program. It's a fair assumption that a significant percent of privys, 20%, 30%, maybe more, went to dealers, guaranteed, in 100 count boxes.

    How do I know this? Because we know nowhere near 67,500 were sold one at a time in the 24 hours after release, and yet what was left was gobbled up in a minute or two once the HHL was lifted. This implies a helluva lot more than 7500 (the Advance Release limit) went to dealers before the balance was released to us, one at a time, at noon on the 15th.

    Since we don't have the opportunity to buy in quantity, we did not have the opportunity to be guaranteed to score a privy or two or three, even if we were willing to take a sealed box of 100. The sealed poly is only sealed after someone at the fulfillment center placed an unsealed box inside it.

    Really? I guess technically. But, with a random distribution and a 2.4% hit rate, the odds are literally 2.4 per 100.

    Maybe 2, maybe 3. Outside chance of 1 or maybe 4. Very tiny chance of 0 or 5+.

    And that's with a single 100 count box. Go to several boxes, and it's a close to a guarantee as you can get.

    If you want to quibble, sure, there's a theoretical chance one box of 100 will have 20 privys, and then 9 other boxes will have 0. But that wouldn't be fair to anyone, other than the single dealer receiving the crazy windfall.

    If they are seeding as they intend, to achieve a wide, random distribution, they are making sure each and every box will have either 2 or 3, and anyone buying a single box of 100 will be absolutely, positively guaranteed to receive at least 1.

    Trust me, there is absolutely no way the Mint would screw the dealers by having some receive none while others receive many, when the whole idea behind allowing them to buy in advance, in bulk, was to remove them and their proxies from website, and to ensure they all benefited from the lottery.

    In addition, that would lead to allegations of favoritism if, as would inevitably be the case, it would be the largest of the large dealers receiving a disproportionate share of privys. Without being an actual Mint insider, I am very confident in assuming the Mint made sure each box of 100 had either 2 or 3 privys. And that the only element of randomness was which 2 or 3 in the box were the privys.

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @JimTyler said:
    Got 1 more.

    How did u guys get them on day 2?

    I was hesitant to preload my cart & check out right at noon in case the mint didn't remove the hh limit just at noon - which was the case. I thought if I tried to check a second one out before the household limit was lifted I could risk losing my original order.

    I would love to know how u guys that got one on the second day pulled it off.

    Thx!

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2024 8:09PM

    Whose in for the gold? I'm in for one.

    I'm assuming they won't be available at Baltimore since their is a hh limit?

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • coinercoiner Posts: 576 ✭✭✭✭

    Well i'll test the theory.
    I have an order of 75 medals headed my way - already shipped. They broke the order into 50 and 25 count UPS deliveries.
    We dont know if they were in 100 count boxes or not. Maybe 50.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Raufus said:

    @JimTyler said:
    Got 1 more.

    How did u guys get them on day 2?

    I was hesitant to preload my cart & check out right at noon in case the mint didn't remove the hh limit just at noon - which was the case. I thought if I tried to check a second one out before the household limit was lifted I could risk losing my original order.

    I would love to know how u guys that got one on the second day pulled it off.

    Thx!

    At around 12:02 the HHL was lifted, right on the product page. Someone bought 51, and listed them for sale on eBay. That's how.

    You had to be fast, but you could indeed load them into a cart and check out before they went unavailable. No mystery. No magic.

    In fact, with the new, improved website, I don't think you have to worry about losing an original order, because, if you try to check out with the same account and you are violating a HHL, it will not allow you to complete the transaction. People having orders cancelled for violating the HHL after submitting them are people doing it across multiple accounts, and having the orders flagged after a manual review.

  • coinercoiner Posts: 576 ✭✭✭✭

    Im in for the gold as well. The assumption is they will be available at the Baltimore show.
    I plan on attending - at least I think im going at this point.

  • coinercoiner Posts: 576 ✭✭✭✭

    I had 99 in my cart on Day 2, once HHL was off - I went the safe way and changed it to 75. Then placed the order. You save some steps since youre working in the cart - then an extra step with PAYPAL checkout.
    I've had experience in the past where orders of 99 were cancelled.

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