The Coronavirus and the related stock market selloff ...

Texast · February 24, 2020 5:16PM

Silver took a ride today...

habaraca · February 24, 2020 5:18PM

Maybe we just pray for these people, and rest on the I GOTTA HAVE IT

ThreeCentSilverFL · February 24, 2020 5:24PM

Noise

ctf_error_coins · February 24, 2020 6:08PM

Been out of the market for awhile now.

Buying back in in a 1/3 position in an index fund tomorrow.

Sell if the above gap fills, buy 1/3 more if the market tanks.

Buy last 1/3 if it really tanks and possibly hold long term.

Walkerguy21D · February 24, 2020 6:10PM

Sold my gold stocks this morning, then used the proceeds to add some nice dividend payers that were beaten down.

I’ve been slowly divesting some of my non core numismatic holdings over the past year or so, and added to my bullion holdings when prices were lower. Now time to enjoy the ride, I hope.
Though the disease is certainly very tragic for many, I’m thinking the flight to pm’s has more to do with runaway fiat currencies. And I won’t apologize for profiting from that!

PocketArt · February 24, 2020 6:15PM

Looking for some good deals when the +70 and over mustard stains are culled out. Sarc.

cagcrisp · February 24, 2020 6:22PM

1.Stock market is in a bubble
2. Bond market is in a bubble
3. Gold is in a bubble
4. USD too Strong

Bond market is hitting ALL TIME Low Yields. I just can’t buy a 10 year yielding 1.37% with $23 Trillion in debt...hoping that interest rates will continue to go down and make capital appreciation on lower yields
Gold is hitting 7 year highs and is 100% based on low yields, high stock prices , trying to find safe haven in turbulent times and looking for capital appreciation
Thus I ended back in stock market pre dawn when stocks were “only” down 2.5%.Even though it’s very risky with coronavirus and P/Es are stretched to perfection. Other than cash, where do you go? And at some time you have to get out of cash and I might as well get back in ( traded out last Tuesday) after a Sell Off...Thus back in the game and counting on another Fed cut (bond market has already done the heavy lifting)...

Wahoo554 · February 24, 2020 6:56PM

Just one word: plastics. There’s a great future in plastics. Think about it.

Lakesammman · February 24, 2020 7:29PM

If the world's coming to an end, who needs money??

If it's not, good time to buy.

Justacommeman · February 24, 2020 8:00PM

This forum maybe the very last place I would heed financial advise. Followed closely by the Sports and PM Forums.

m

Pnies20 · February 24, 2020 8:23PM

@Justacommeman said:
This forum maybe the very last place I would heed financial advise. Followed closely by the Sports and PM Forums.

m

Put all your money into Dunkin’ Donuts. Trust me.

I eat a donut and drink a coffee there every day.

Justacommeman · February 24, 2020 8:29PM

@Pnies20 said:

@Justacommeman said:
This forum maybe the very last place I would heed financial advise. Followed closely by the Sports and PM Forums.

m

Put all your money into Dunkin’ Donuts. Trust me.

I eat a donut and drink a coffee there every day.

Love the coffee

m

Hydrant · February 24, 2020 9:12PM

I was born in Corona. Lemon Capitol of the World! The Circle City. Crown Town. The Indianapolis of the West!......just ask Barney Oldfield!

dogwood · February 24, 2020 10:26PM

I can’t say about coin decisions but I’m going to dollar cost average my IRA contribution for 2019 at $1000 a week over the next 7 weeks.
Monday nights I think.

Kkathyl · February 24, 2020 11:12PM

In Vietnam the people are scared to go to hospital if they feel ill for anything because they will be flagged as No Go for travel. It’s worse then what we are being told. So yeah let’s just hope that this virus is neutralized. Let’s think of the poor who have no help no money and are in fear to leave homes.

Kathy

Mgarmy · February 24, 2020 11:55PM

Keep this in mind...worst case scenario. Virus killing 2 out of 100 infected. So if it spreads throughout the US we are easily looking at over 500k dead if only a fraction get infected. If everybody in US gets exposed...8mil dead on a 400mil population. Fire sale on estate coins😁

CommemDude · February 25, 2020 5:40AM

USA has no readily available tests for corona virus as everything has to be shipped to the CDC right now, but if it turns out there are hundreds of cases already in the USA then you will be buying stock at a 20% discount from today's prices

ricko · February 25, 2020 6:53AM

Just wait until real panic hits the populace.... then you will see rampant stupidity ruling everything.... Civilization deteriorates fast when panic strikes.....I doubt it will happen, but if it does, the black swan event will be awesome to behold. Batten down the hatches and stock up on supplies and defenses. Cheers, RickO

jmlanzaf · February 25, 2020 7:08AM

@cagcrisp said:
1.Stock market is in a bubble
2. Bond market is in a bubble
3. Gold is in a bubble
4. USD too Strong

Bond market is hitting ALL TIME Low Yields. I just can’t buy a 10 year yielding 1.37% with $23 Trillion in debt...hoping that interest rates will continue to go down and make capital appreciation on lower yields

Gold is hitting 7 year highs and is 100% based on low yields, high stock prices , trying to find safe haven in turbulent times and looking for capital appreciation

Thus I ended back in stock market pre dawn when stocks were “only” down 2.5%.Even though it’s very risky with coronavirus and P/Es are stretched to perfection. Other than cash, where do you go? And at some time you have to get out of cash and I might as well get back in ( traded out last Tuesday) after a Sell Off...Thus back in the game and counting on another Fed cut (bond market has already done the heavy lifting)...

Lol. I jumped in when it was down a little over 2%. The last 1.5% was my fault.

Walkerguy21D · February 25, 2020 7:30AM

@ricko said:
Just wait until real panic hits the populace.... then you will see rampant stupidity ruling everything.... Civilization deteriorates fast when panic strikes.....I doubt it will happen, but if it does, the black swan event will be awesome to behold. Batten down the hatches and stock up on supplies and defenses. Cheers, RickO

But then the zombies take over, and we're all screwed anyway.....

ricko · February 25, 2020 7:32AM

@Walkerguy21D....Just remember, for zombies, it's all head shots.... Cheers, RickO

Cougar1978 · February 25, 2020 7:47AM

I see it as a potential negative impactor on numismatic coins which are already heavily challenged for market appreciation. The full implications of the outbreak are a scary scenario.

As far as bullion no feel on how that will shake out at this time. At present am in sell mode on numismatic material (if positive GM) but not buyer unless really appealing super deal can’t resist.

At least it’s not something like war of the worlds on Epix. In series we beamed music to Ross 128b (google it) a real planet 11 light years away their response was an all out invasion / take it all. Great series very realistic.

cagcrisp · February 25, 2020 8:15AM

@jmlanzaf said:

@cagcrisp said:
1.Stock market is in a bubble
2. Bond market is in a bubble
3. Gold is in a bubble
4. USD too Strong

Bond market is hitting ALL TIME Low Yields. I just can’t buy a 10 year yielding 1.37% with $23 Trillion in debt...hoping that interest rates will continue to go down and make capital appreciation on lower yields

Gold is hitting 7 year highs and is 100% based on low yields, high stock prices , trying to find safe haven in turbulent times and looking for capital appreciation

Thus I ended back in stock market pre dawn when stocks were “only” down 2.5%.Even though it’s very risky with coronavirus and P/Es are stretched to perfection. Other than cash, where do you go? And at some time you have to get out of cash and I might as well get back in ( traded out last Tuesday) after a Sell Off...Thus back in the game and counting on another Fed cut (bond market has already done the heavy lifting)...

Lol. I jumped in when it was down a little over 2%. The last 1.5% was my fault.

What I did Yesterday pre-market, I undid pre-market Today...

Walkerguy21D · February 25, 2020 8:27AM

@ricko said:
@Walkerguy21D....Just remember, for zombies, it's all head shots.... Cheers, RickO

Right on, ricko - keep an eye out for me, I'll be driving something like this, aka road warrior:

cagcrisp · February 25, 2020 9:19AM

Currently the 30 year United States Treasury bond is hitting All Time Low yields
Currently the 10 year United States Treasury note is hitting All Tim Low yields

johnny9434 · February 25, 2020 9:21AM

@Justacommeman said:

@Pnies20 said:

@Justacommeman said:
This forum maybe the very last place I would heed financial advise. Followed closely by the Sports and PM Forums.

m

Put all your money into Dunkin’ Donuts. Trust me.

I eat a donut and drink a coffee there every day.

Love the coffee

m

I love the coffee as well. no effect on my coin buying either

thebeav · February 25, 2020 9:47AM

100 thousand people die in the US every year just from the flu. I don't think that has ever affected coin prices.......

jmlanzaf · February 25, 2020 10:05AM

@cagcrisp said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@cagcrisp said:
1.Stock market is in a bubble
2. Bond market is in a bubble
3. Gold is in a bubble
4. USD too Strong

Bond market is hitting ALL TIME Low Yields. I just can’t buy a 10 year yielding 1.37% with $23 Trillion in debt...hoping that interest rates will continue to go down and make capital appreciation on lower yields

Gold is hitting 7 year highs and is 100% based on low yields, high stock prices , trying to find safe haven in turbulent times and looking for capital appreciation

Thus I ended back in stock market pre dawn when stocks were “only” down 2.5%.Even though it’s very risky with coronavirus and P/Es are stretched to perfection. Other than cash, where do you go? And at some time you have to get out of cash and I might as well get back in ( traded out last Tuesday) after a Sell Off...Thus back in the game and counting on another Fed cut (bond market has already done the heavy lifting)...

Lol. I jumped in when it was down a little over 2%. The last 1.5% was my fault.

What I did Yesterday pre-market, I undid pre-market Today...

I only partially undid it overnight. I'm still riding this mother to hell....

cagcrisp · February 25, 2020 10:10AM

@jmlanzaf said:

@cagcrisp said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@cagcrisp said:
1.Stock market is in a bubble
2. Bond market is in a bubble
3. Gold is in a bubble
4. USD too Strong

Bond market is hitting ALL TIME Low Yields. I just can’t buy a 10 year yielding 1.37% with $23 Trillion in debt...hoping that interest rates will continue to go down and make capital appreciation on lower yields

Gold is hitting 7 year highs and is 100% based on low yields, high stock prices , trying to find safe haven in turbulent times and looking for capital appreciation

Thus I ended back in stock market pre dawn when stocks were “only” down 2.5%.Even though it’s very risky with coronavirus and P/Es are stretched to perfection. Other than cash, where do you go? And at some time you have to get out of cash and I might as well get back in ( traded out last Tuesday) after a Sell Off...Thus back in the game and counting on another Fed cut (bond market has already done the heavy lifting)...

Lol. I jumped in when it was down a little over 2%. The last 1.5% was my fault.

What I did Yesterday pre-market, I undid pre-market Today...

I only partially undid it overnight. I'm still riding this mother to hell....

Long term you Will be fine...

I'm a trader...I Could be back before the day is over...

Aercus · February 25, 2020 10:55AM

Covid-19 has roughly 9% mortality rate in China right now. It is not 2%. Look at % of closed cases, not active infections. This rate will probably drop over time but it's no simple flu. Let's hope it will be contained.

I work at a company with asia heavy supply lines. The effects are not fully priced in yet. Senior Management won't get the true extent of the need for a while. I expect more choppiness in the market and more sudden corrections. A net slide down to 26k or lower wouldn't surprise me.

Coins move with PMs at least somewhat, so I would expect continued increase in demand for bullion heavy coins like common date gold.

Mgarmy · February 25, 2020 11:54AM

Aercus- your mortality rate is high. It is .09 in South Korea, 3% Italy, 3.4 China, and as a poorly reporting outlier Iran at 19 percent. CDC and homeland and HHS all staying with 2-3 percent mortality rate. Which as I mentioned earlier worst case 8 million ish dead in US on 400mil population. Fingers crossed, like the flu, infection rates drops with seasonal change

MilesWaits · February 25, 2020 12:00PM

As Mike Tyson says “everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”....
quoting statistics doesn’t give you a true value of loved ones vulnerability.

ctf_error_coins · February 25, 2020 12:09PM

The VIX says it's a screaming Buy IMO. Bought 1/3 back into the market with an index fund from a 100% Capital preservation fund just now.

JBK · February 25, 2020 12:35PM

@Wahoo554 said:
Just one word: plastics. There’s a great future in plastics. Think about it.

No time to think about plastics - I think Mrs. Robinson is trying to seduce me!

Numismatically (including peripheral niche specialties), I have avoided some eBay sellers from China, especially the one in Wahun who was marked as "on vacation".

Aercus · February 25, 2020 12:48PM

@Mgarmy said:
Aercus- your mortality rate is high. It is .09 in South Korea, 3% Italy, 3.4 China, and as a poorly reporting outlier Iran at 19 percent. CDC and homeland and HHS all staying with 2-3 percent mortality rate. Which as I mentioned earlier worst case 8 million ish dead in US on 400mil population. Fingers crossed, like the flu, infection rates drops with seasonal change

Please read the post again. You should not use infections, you use recoveries ("closed cases"). Using infections instead of closed cases during an active outbreak (as many sources are doing) woefully underestimates the severity.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/corona-virus-death-rate/

In all likeliness the true rate is somewhere between 3 and 9%, assuming China's numbers can be trusted. At any rate it is a serious illness. Let's hope, like you said, that warm weather helps!

jmlanzaf · February 25, 2020 1:18PM

@cagcrisp said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@cagcrisp said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@cagcrisp said:
1.Stock market is in a bubble
2. Bond market is in a bubble
3. Gold is in a bubble
4. USD too Strong

Bond market is hitting ALL TIME Low Yields. I just can’t buy a 10 year yielding 1.37% with $23 Trillion in debt...hoping that interest rates will continue to go down and make capital appreciation on lower yields

Gold is hitting 7 year highs and is 100% based on low yields, high stock prices , trying to find safe haven in turbulent times and looking for capital appreciation

Thus I ended back in stock market pre dawn when stocks were “only” down 2.5%.Even though it’s very risky with coronavirus and P/Es are stretched to perfection. Other than cash, where do you go? And at some time you have to get out of cash and I might as well get back in ( traded out last Tuesday) after a Sell Off...Thus back in the game and counting on another Fed cut (bond market has already done the heavy lifting)...

Lol. I jumped in when it was down a little over 2%. The last 1.5% was my fault.

What I did Yesterday pre-market, I undid pre-market Today...

I only partially undid it overnight. I'm still riding this mother to hell....

Long term you Will be fine...

I'm a trader...I Could be back before the day is over...

I switched to futures options to limit the downside risk. Just get me back to 28000 before they expire. Lol

JBK · February 25, 2020 2:40PM

@Aercus said:
assuming China's numbers can be trusted.

I hope it is not as bad as the worldwide flu pandemic at the close of WWI - more people died from the flu than in the war,

markelman1125 · February 25, 2020 2:55PM

Well it’s a good time to have gold 👍👍👍

crazyhounddog · February 25, 2020 3:08PM

Corona, California. That’s where Hotel California is, right?
“You can check in but you can never leave.”

Mgarmy · February 25, 2020 3:36PM

@MilesWaits said:
As Mike Tyson says “everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”....
quoting statistics doesn’t give you a true value of loved ones vulnerability.

?

Mgarmy · February 25, 2020 3:37PM

@JBK said:

@Aercus said:
assuming China's numbers can be trusted.

I hope it is not as bad as the worldwide flu pandemic at the close of WWI - more people died from the flu than in the war,

If this is like the spanish flu of 1918 very few families will not be affected God I hope it is not like that

oldUScoins · February 25, 2020 3:59PM

Learn to wash your hands with soap in warm water often. Don’t touch your nose and face while out In public. No nose picking. Wash your hands some more.

blitzdude · February 25, 2020 4:18PM

I'm stocking up on butter, beans and tin foil.

OPA · February 25, 2020 4:34PM

@thebeav said:
100 thousand people die in the US every year just from the flu. I don't think that has ever affected coin prices.......

Not so sure where you got your info from, but that appears to be overstated per the CDC.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

oldUScoins · February 25, 2020 4:58PM

@thebeav said:
100 thousand people die in the US every year just from the flu. I don't think that has ever affected coin prices.......

Covid-19 isn’t the seasonal flu. Apparently it can be transmitted before any symptoms exist and is much more deadly. As countries quarantine and temporarily shut down businesses this has and will affect economies around the world. In the US we may end up in a once in a lifetime event But we will see. The mortality rate is much higher for older adults - so the main affect on coin prices may be less demand and more supply as the elderly succumb to the virus.

The good news is Moderna and some other companies already have a vaccine ready for trials - which may save millions of lives if it works.

Justacommeman · February 25, 2020 5:20PM

@ErrorsOnCoins said:
The VIX says it's a screaming Buy IMO. Bought 1/3 back into the market with an index fund from a 100% Capital preservation fund just now.

Tell that to all the sunken ships on the bottom of the ocean who had charts

m

ShadyDave · February 25, 2020 6:29PM

@thebeav said:
100 thousand people die in the US every year just from the flu. I don't think that has ever affected coin prices.......

Yeah but my telescreen is telling me to be frightened and worried, so I must listen to it.

ctf_error_coins · February 25, 2020 6:36PM

@Justacommeman said:

@ErrorsOnCoins said:
The VIX says it's a screaming Buy IMO. Bought 1/3 back into the market with an index fund from a 100% Capital preservation fund just now.

Tell that to all the sunken ships on the bottom of the ocean who had charts

m

My guess is that the majority of those sunken ships did not have satellite imagery and GPS

jmlanzaf · February 25, 2020 6:40PM

@ErrorsOnCoins said:
The VIX says it's a screaming Buy IMO. Bought 1/3 back into the market with an index fund from a 100% Capital preservation fund just now.

I hope you're right. I'm in. But there's an old saying on Wall Street: The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

A little rally now in futures....just like last night...then we dropped 1100 points

I'm going to go collect some tin cans.

1northcoin · February 25, 2020 7:30PM

To recap with some added facts regarding the saga of the Diamond Princess now that it has been announced it will not return to passenger cruising until at least April 29th.

When the ship first went under quarantine in Yokohama Harbor over two weeks ago there were 2,666 passengers and 1,045 crew members aboard, At that point 10 people had been identified as infected with the Coronavirus. That number eventually reached at least 691 plus at least one health official who had come on board.

While half of those who tested positive for the virus had no symptoms, three died, All three were in their 80s with the first two (84 and 87) having had serious unrelated health issues,

At least as of several days ago, half of the diagnosed Coronavirus infected persons outside of China had been aboard the Diamond Princess.

The Coronavirus and the related stock market selloff ...

The Coronavirus and the related stock market selloff ...

The Coronavirus and the related stock market selloff ... 208 votes

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