People should be looking at the South Korea data and the cruise ship data. South Korea had a very professional early response with several weeks of data now. And the cruise ship had the most complete testing regime on an isolated population possible.
Interesting point, but here's the question. Is the US response going to be more like South Korea or Italy? What about France?
Or Egypt? Some countries are just not responsible enough to curtail the spread. The Korea's and Japan's may not be representative given their high compliance rates.
I would definitely take the over on your 200k estimate from earlier.
The day over day rates of new infection are not showing sustained growth:
Anything is still possible. Personally, I don't care if there are 2 million cases, it's the deaths which is the only real concern.
Since @mgarmy was implying 35 million fatalities, I think I'm going to be far closer. [40% infection rate with 1% mortality, before you ask or object]
Where did I say 35m fatalities. I did say 40 percent exposure but also said not all of them would die. Early numbers out of China were 2 out of a 100. So worst case if the number held at 2 per on a 400m us population number is 8 mil. Not sure were the 35m came from
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@robec said:
What percentage of people exposed to this virus actually test positive? Are there any numbers?
How could anyone really know?
Actually the best exposure study to date is the cruise ship as they tested everyone before they let them off the boat. There were 3200 people on board, 600 tested positive and, I believe, 6 died. The demographic skewed older so you'd expect the mortality rate to be a bit overstated, but it should give you some idea of a near worst case exposure/infection situation as you had 3200 people on an island sharing airspace.
They did, at some point, request people stay in their rooms, but that is still a shared HVAC system and several days of free mixing of the passengers.
People should be looking at the South Korea data and the cruise ship data. South Korea had a very professional early response with several weeks of data now. And the cruise ship had the most complete testing regime on an isolated population possible.
You can do antibody studies to see exposure rates. The data exists for previous outbreaks (SARS, etc.) and for more common diseases (influenza, common coronaviruses).
In one published study, 50% of the positives were completely asymptomatic. This is a different issue, but interesting.
The other thing I've not seen published is what the false positive/false negative rates are for the test.
That's like picking an election winner with one precinct reporting. A good estimate sure, but a limited sample size. Had they allowed them to mingle like they would have had they gone ashore and gone their separate ways who knows. Also once found out the co-mingling was curtailed or minimized.
People should be looking at the South Korea data and the cruise ship data. South Korea had a very professional early response with several weeks of data now. And the cruise ship had the most complete testing regime on an isolated population possible.
Interesting point, but here's the question. Is the US response going to be more like South Korea or Italy? What about France?
Or Egypt? Some countries are just not responsible enough to curtail the spread. The Korea's and Japan's may not be representative given their high compliance rates.
I would definitely take the over on your 200k estimate from earlier.
The day over day rates of new infection are not showing sustained growth:
Anything is still possible. Personally, I don't care if there are 2 million cases, it's the deaths which is the only real concern.
Since @mgarmy was implying 35 million fatalities, I think I'm going to be far closer. [40% infection rate with 1% mortality, before you ask or object]
Where did I say 35m fatalities. I did say 40 percent exposure but also said not all of them would die. Early numbers out of China were 2 out of a 100. So worst case if the number held at 2 per on a 400m us population number is 8 mil. Not sure were the 35m came from
7 billion people in the world. 40% is roughly 3 billion people. 1% fatality is 30 million+
@robec said:
What percentage of people exposed to this virus actually test positive? Are there any numbers?
How could anyone really know?
Actually the best exposure study to date is the cruise ship as they tested everyone before they let them off the boat. There were 3200 people on board, 600 tested positive and, I believe, 6 died. The demographic skewed older so you'd expect the mortality rate to be a bit overstated, but it should give you some idea of a near worst case exposure/infection situation as you had 3200 people on an island sharing airspace.
They did, at some point, request people stay in their rooms, but that is still a shared HVAC system and several days of free mixing of the passengers.
People should be looking at the South Korea data and the cruise ship data. South Korea had a very professional early response with several weeks of data now. And the cruise ship had the most complete testing regime on an isolated population possible.
You can do antibody studies to see exposure rates. The data exists for previous outbreaks (SARS, etc.) and for more common diseases (influenza, common coronaviruses).
In one published study, 50% of the positives were completely asymptomatic. This is a different issue, but interesting.
The other thing I've not seen published is what the false positive/false negative rates are for the test.
That's like picking an election winner with one precinct reporting. A good estimate sure, but a limited sample size. Had they allowed them to mingle like they would have had they gone ashore and gone their separate ways who knows. Also once found out the co-mingling was curtailed or minimized.
Quite the contrary. It is a controlled experiment. It is not at all like picking an election winner by extrapolating one data point to the whole population. The cruise ship is the WHOLE POPULATION. Yes, that population is somewhat unique, but it allows for isolation of the actual interactions to be known and had a 100% test rate.
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My sister just got out of the hospital from pneumonia, was tested for COVID 19 isolated then cleared, whew
Where did I say 35m fatalities. I did say 40 percent exposure but also said not all of them would die. Early numbers out of China were 2 out of a 100. So worst case if the number held at 2 per on a 400m us population number is 8 mil. Not sure were the 35m came from
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That's like picking an election winner with one precinct reporting. A good estimate sure, but a limited sample size. Had they allowed them to mingle like they would have had they gone ashore and gone their separate ways who knows. Also once found out the co-mingling was curtailed or minimized.
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7 billion people in the world. 40% is roughly 3 billion people. 1% fatality is 30 million+
Quite the contrary. It is a controlled experiment. It is not at all like picking an election winner by extrapolating one data point to the whole population. The cruise ship is the WHOLE POPULATION. Yes, that population is somewhat unique, but it allows for isolation of the actual interactions to be known and had a 100% test rate.