@3stars said:
You can tell people are acting irrationally when they buy bottled water. The virus doesn’t affect the water supply and your city / town is not going to shut off the water to your house.
You are correct, but I was forced into buying water because the tap water smells like rotten eggs in my city and it is hard to drink.
@3stars said:
You can tell people are acting irrationally when they buy bottled water. The virus doesn’t affect the water supply and your city / town is not going to shut off the water to your house.
Forget bottled water. The toilet paper shelves at the local stores are empty because the media told people to stock up on toilet paper and paper towels. I mean...really?!?!?!?
@jmlanzaf said:
Forget bottled water. The toilet paper shelves at the local stores are empty because the media told people to stock up on toilet paper and paper towels. I mean...really?!?!?!?
First, the coughing starts....then, the wiping starts.....
Yeah I went to Costco this morning and got there a little early before they open (to get my traditional berries and Aussie Bites) and it was already a huge line out front waiting to get in, in the cold.
And then they were rushing down the isles with their carts grabbing bottled water and toilet paper. Dumbasses.
@MilesWaits said:
Yeah I went to Costco this morning and got there a little early before they open (to get my traditional berries and Aussie Bites) and it was already a huge line out front waiting to get in, in the cold.
And then they were rushing down the isles with their carts grabbing bottled water and toilet paper. Dumbasses.
I am also close to ground zero in WA, it all came from one infected person travelling back from China:
"The team at the @seattleflustudy have sequenced the genome the #COVID19 community case reported yesterday from Snohomish County, WA, and have posted the sequence publicly to http://gisaid.org. There are some enormous implications here. 1/9
This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19, also from Snohomish County, viewable here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_division=Washington 2/9
This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks. 3/9
((cryptic transmission = undetected. After all, most coronavirus cases are mild. No doubt some people that get a mild case will think they have the flu. And if it is going to cost you $$$ to get tested for coronavirus, lots of people will not ask to be tested.))
I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China. 6/9"
Above statement is yesterday from Trevor Bedford, research scientist at Fred Hutchinson in the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division and the Computational Biology Program.
Robert Scot: Engraving Liberty - biography of US Mint's first chief engraver
The stock market looks like it's about the same level as 3 months ago or so and it wasn't cheap then. Still too many unknowns on this virus right now and the market hates uncertainty.
Successful BST deals with mustangt and jesbroken. Now EVERYTHING is for sale.
@Nysoto said:
I am also close to ground zero in WA, it all came from one infected person travelling back from China:
"The team at the @seattleflustudy have sequenced the genome the #COVID19 community case reported yesterday from Snohomish County, WA, and have posted the sequence publicly to http://gisaid.org. There are some enormous implications here. 1/9
This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19, also from Snohomish County, viewable here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_division=Washington 2/9
This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks. 3/9
((cryptic transmission = undetected. After all, most coronavirus cases are mild. No doubt some people that get a mild case will think they have the flu. And if it is going to cost you $$$ to get tested for coronavirus, lots of people will not ask to be tested.))
I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China. 6/9"
So what is the cost to be tested and is it covered by insurance?
@cagcrisp said:
Here are some private emails that I have sent out to members of this blog:
This email was sent on Tuesday February 18, 2020, to a member of this blog:
“i sold a sizeable portion of my stocks this morning. I don’t think the market has enough risk built in. Moved it to cash and will probably keep it there waiting for either a dip or put it in short term treasuries.”
This email was sent on Thursday February 26, 2020, to another member of this blog:
“i sold some stocks a week ago on Tuesday. I bought back in on Monday afternoon and sold out again on Tuesday morning pre-market when Dow Futures were up +200. I’m currently underweight stocks. I think we have bubbles all around. I think Precious Metals, stocks and bonds are all in a bubble. Setting in cash is a good thing. Being in the ______ you only have so many moves to make and you cant make any Real Time trades. In this volitile market timing is everything. I told _____ you have to watch the 10 year. Forget about the stock market telling you anything because people are accustomed to buying the dips. I’m afraid that the 10 year Could get as low as 1.00%. IF that happens it will set the Fed up to cut rates again which should help the stock market. The only problem with the 10 year going down to 1.00% is that things would have to be REALLY weak for that to happen.
The bubble Im seeing in precious metals is that virtually all the money coming in is going to Gold vs. Silver. That tells me that Gold is leading and Silver is being drug along. When the Fed cuts, and then the stock market could pop upwards and suck all the money out of Gold”
This email was sent on Friday February 28, 2020, to another member of this blog:
“Gold/Silver showed today that there is NO safe haven. Look at yields on Treasurys: 30 year at 1.679%. 10 year closed at 1.15%, 2 year at 0.93%. 1 year at 1.02%. There is NO where to hide. You can’t make money in bond market unless rates go Lower. IF you’re in bond market just for the yield, you’re going to lose money to inflation. Silver sold off 6.25% today. Even with stocks taking a beating and P/Es so high, don’t see in Long Run you have any options but to be in stocks.”
Here is where you could have told investors to "hide"
Index shorts made money i.e. using DIA, QQQ, or SPY
Individual stock shorts made money
Shorting the stock index futures made money i.e. using Dow or S&P E-mini
Buying puts made money
Writing calls made money
Buying SH ETF made money
Etc......
There is always money being made by someone in the market. They just don't put it in the news headlines because it would be boring to let viewers and readers know that some investors have been waiting for this to happen and are very happy. Doom and gloom sells. Taking your money out and parking it in a money market is a passive defensive strategy in a down market. The strategies above are proactive offensive strategies in a down market. Most investors just don't understand them and have brokers who don't promote them as well.
I know with Fidelity your money is not insured by the FDIC in the their money markets. If everything went south that would not be good.
second death in Washington State reported along with the first confirmed case in NYC.
Some perspective. In the last 6 weeks there have been:
3,000 deaths from COVID-19
800,000 deaths from smoking
800,000 deaths from heart disease
156,000 deaths from auto accidents
96,000 deaths from AIDS
It's no consolation to those affected, but mass panic isn't justified....... just yet.
I doubt there is actual "mass panic" among the general population but perhaps there is and it is warranted among those most at risk. my Sister is three years out from a double lung transplant and I fear for her. of the causes listed above, all but COVID-19 are lifestyle choices, even Heart Disease to a certain point. the factual evidence of the "spread" should illicit caution.
@keets said:
second death in Washington State reported along with the first confirmed case in NYC.
Some perspective. In the last 6 weeks there have been:
3,000 deaths from COVID-19
800,000 deaths from smoking
800,000 deaths from heart disease
156,000 deaths from auto accidents
96,000 deaths from AIDS
It's no consolation to those affected, but mass panic isn't justified....... just yet.
I doubt there is actual "mass panic" among the general population but perhaps there is and it is warranted among those most at risk. my Sister is three years out from a double lung transplant and I fear for her. of the causes listed above, all but COVID-19 are lifestyle choices, even Heart Disease to a certain point. the factual evidence of the "spread" should illicit caution.
To be fair, your sister is also at risk from the flu which has millions of cases and thousands of deaths. That is the perspective more than the quoted cancer and AIDS figures.
@cagcrisp said:
Here are some private emails that I have sent out to members of this blog:
This email was sent on Tuesday February 18, 2020, to a member of this blog:
“i sold a sizeable portion of my stocks this morning. I don’t think the market has enough risk built in. Moved it to cash and will probably keep it there waiting for either a dip or put it in short term treasuries.”
This email was sent on Thursday February 26, 2020, to another member of this blog:
“i sold some stocks a week ago on Tuesday. I bought back in on Monday afternoon and sold out again on Tuesday morning pre-market when Dow Futures were up +200. I’m currently underweight stocks. I think we have bubbles all around. I think Precious Metals, stocks and bonds are all in a bubble. Setting in cash is a good thing. Being in the ______ you only have so many moves to make and you cant make any Real Time trades. In this volitile market timing is everything. I told _____ you have to watch the 10 year. Forget about the stock market telling you anything because people are accustomed to buying the dips. I’m afraid that the 10 year Could get as low as 1.00%. IF that happens it will set the Fed up to cut rates again which should help the stock market. The only problem with the 10 year going down to 1.00% is that things would have to be REALLY weak for that to happen.
The bubble Im seeing in precious metals is that virtually all the money coming in is going to Gold vs. Silver. That tells me that Gold is leading and Silver is being drug along. When the Fed cuts, and then the stock market could pop upwards and suck all the money out of Gold”
This email was sent on Friday February 28, 2020, to another member of this blog:
“Gold/Silver showed today that there is NO safe haven. Look at yields on Treasurys: 30 year at 1.679%. 10 year closed at 1.15%, 2 year at 0.93%. 1 year at 1.02%. There is NO where to hide. You can’t make money in bond market unless rates go Lower. IF you’re in bond market just for the yield, you’re going to lose money to inflation. Silver sold off 6.25% today. Even with stocks taking a beating and P/Es so high, don’t see in Long Run you have any options but to be in stocks.”
Here is where you could have told investors to "hide"
Index shorts made money i.e. using DIA, QQQ, or SPY
Individual stock shorts made money
Shorting the stock index futures made money i.e. using Dow or S&P E-mini
Buying puts made money
Writing calls made money
Buying SH ETF made money
Etc......
There is always money being made by someone in the market. They just don't put it in the news headlines because it would be boring to let viewers and readers know that some investors have been waiting for this to happen and are very happy. Doom and gloom sells. Taking your money out and parking it in a money market is a passive defensive strategy in a down market. The strategies above are proactive offensive strategies in a down market. Most investors just don't understand them and have brokers who don't promote them as well.
I know with Fidelity your money is not insured by the FDIC in the their money markets. If everything went south that would not be good.
Well if EVERYTHING went south, bullets and beans are the only useful things left. But I wouldn't recommend going 100% into bullets and beans over a little viral outbreak.
@keets said:
to be fair-er, she has been immunized against the flu. I will await your next post stating why at risk individuals don't need to worry about this.
No one hopes for anything but the best for your sister and anyone else. But she, or you, should NOT worry any more about the coronavirus than the flu.
At risk individuals should take precautions...including against influenza of which the immunizations is only one part.
The flu vaccine is 50-60% effective in healthy individuals (per CDC). So your sister still has orders of magnitude more risk from the flu than coronavirus.
Total GLOBAL coronavirus cases are at 90,000 with 80,000 of those still in the Hubei province of China. In the USA alone in 2019-2020 flu season, there have been 29 MILLION flu cases (per CDC) with 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths.
So, if you give your sister 60% chance of protection from the flu shot - which is the high end - the odds of her contracting the flu even using the 90,000 GLOBAL number against the USA only flu cases is 150x higher. The death rate in South Korea - an advanced country with advanced medical infrastructure - is running at only about 2x the influenze death rate. That means your sister has at least a 75x higher chance of dying from the flu than the coronavirus.
By all means, take precautions. But there is no need to panic.
@keets said:
why do you insist on riding the Flu horse?? give it a rest already, I expect that everyone who cares has heard you drone on about.
Hearing isn't the same as understanding. But, I will not mention other viruses again.
Let's talk traffic fatalities:
Globally, 1.25 million people die annually in road fatalities with more than 20 million people injured or disabled. Half of those deaths are in the 15 to 44 year-old population.
In 2018, in the U.S. alone, there were 36,000 motor vehicle fatalities representing 11.18 fatalities per 100,000 population. This represents 1.13 fatalities per 100 million miles traveled.
3,000 coronavirus deaths in a population of 7 billion people represents 0.04 fatalities per 100,000 population. That means that in 2020, you were more likely to die driving to Walmart to buy surgical masks than from the coronavirus.
Even in Hubei province China, the 2800 deaths in a population of 58 million represents 4.8 deaths per 100,000 population. In 2018 there were 4800 traffic fatalities in Hubei province China. So even in the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, you were twice as likely to die driving to the store than from the coronavirus.
There is just no point in panicking. People are horrible at risk assessment.
@keets said:
second death in Washington State reported along with the first confirmed case in NYC.
Some perspective. In the last 6 weeks there have been:
3,000 deaths from COVID-19
800,000 deaths from smoking
800,000 deaths from heart disease
156,000 deaths from auto accidents
96,000 deaths from AIDS
It's no consolation to those affected, but mass panic isn't justified....... just yet.
I doubt there is actual "mass panic" among the general population but perhaps there is and it is warranted among those most at risk. my Sister is three years out from a double lung transplant and I fear for her. of the causes listed above, all but COVID-19 are lifestyle choices, even Heart Disease to a certain point. the factual evidence of the "spread" should illicit caution.
All the other comparisons have been around have known percentage rates.
It’s the unknowns about corona and how it spreads and how it will eventually effect normal day to day life, crossed with it’s vast room to grow and spread is what has everyone freaked out.
@keets said:
to be fair-er, she has been immunized against the flu. I will await your next post stating why at risk individuals don't need to worry about this.
You should be concerned about your sister because she is in the high risk category and she needs to take the precautions necessary not to get the virus. The typical flu kills 1 in 900 cases and the coronavirus kills 1 in 30.
CNN, which I seldom watch, reported last evening that the virus in China is slowing quickly. Perhaps this is good news. Mortality rate is high with those that have the fevers. Most, some 80% have no symptoms at all. Just a regular cold for them. But, the 20% that do get the fevers are the ones dying. So, if 80,000 are affected and 20% have issues and the death rate is 2,800 people, well you get 18%.
The CDC is sending 93 testing kits out tomorrow, all across the country.
Stay healthy, shop for groceries online if need be and have delivered. Disinfect and stay out of the public if it hits your town. Just be safe friends.
bob
Registry: CC lowballs (boblindstrom), bobinvegas1989@yahoo.com
@AUandAG said:
CNN, which I seldom watch, reported last evening that the virus in China is slowing quickly. Perhaps this is good news. Mortality rate is high with those that have the fevers. Most, some 80% have no symptoms at all. Just a regular cold for them. But, the 20% that do get the fevers are the ones dying. So, if 80,000 are affected and 20% have issues and the death rate is 2,800 people, well you get 18%.
The CDC is sending 93 testing kits out tomorrow, all across the country.
Stay healthy, shop for groceries online if need be and have delivered. Disinfect and stay out of the public if it hits your town. Just be safe friends.
bob
That 18% number is really odd. Why not just say that among the dead, 100% died? You've filtered down the actual mortality rate to a larger percentage by ignoring the vast majority of people (more than 80%) who don't have issues.
The mortality rate in South Korea is under 0.5%
Most of the deaths are among people that have respiratory issues or are immune compromised. For example, there is a 15% mortality rate among people over 80 in China.
Most of the deaths are among people that have respiratory issues or are immune compromised. For example, there is a 15% mortality rate among people over 80 in China.
This is what I was trying to point out.....just worded incorrectly!
bob
Registry: CC lowballs (boblindstrom), bobinvegas1989@yahoo.com
Most of the deaths are among people that have respiratory issues or are immune compromised. For example, there is a 15% mortality rate among people over 80 in China.
This is what I was trying to point out.....just worded incorrectly!
bob
Oh, gotcha.
Yes, people in high risk groups should take precautions. But, frankly, they should take precautions this time of year all of the time and probably are. The people who need to think twice are the people most likely to infect others. People should stay home if sick rather than toughing it out and going about their normal routines. It is a service to others.
I concur. I'm over 70 and so is my wife. I probably have had more health issues than her but we both are extremely conscious of our surroundings. So far there are no cases here in Nevada and we pray it stays that way. But, we are still out and about just a lot more cautiously. Wife went shopping at 5 am to beat any rush this morning. Less people, less chance of catching something, 'eh?
bob
Registry: CC lowballs (boblindstrom), bobinvegas1989@yahoo.com
@AUandAG said:
CNN, which I seldom watch, reported last evening that the virus in China is slowing quickly.
China has taken extensive measures to stop the spread of the virus, and it looks like it is paying some dividends, Japan has taken precautionary measures to stop the virus. The UK has announced a plan that they will do what it takes to stop the virus. Iran had a do nothing plan and that was a disaster, and they are now taking measures to stop the spread. It appears in the US that the virus may have a foothold in the state of Washington because of testing failures. It remains to be seen how the US will handle the Washington area if it does become a problem out of control like China, Italy, South Korea or Iran.
@ErrorsOnCoins said:
I went to Wallyworld early to stock up.
Everyone stayed clear of one another, heard no coughing or sneezing.
Went to the 91% Alcohol isle and there was none
Wallyworld lady came by and started stocking the shelf so I grabbed two.
Most folks here are prolly too proud or haughty to admit they shop at The World of Wally. FWIW you can buy the 90% IPA at Sams for what WW charges for the 70%.
..... How long should this dead cat bounce last???
1 day 2 days 3 days?
It really depends. China was reopening factories. If cooler heads prevail, we may have seen the bottom. If not...anything could be a trigger. I think the fact that 2 deaths in the US over the weekend didn't drop the market might mean cooler heads are prevailing.
..... How long should this dead cat bounce last???
1 day 2 days 3 days?
I'm not looking at it that way. I see important S&P 500 levels as 2855 to the downside and 3100 to the upside. While it stays within that range, I'm not going to do anything drastic. If it closes below the former or above the latter, I'd be highly motivated to sell and buy, respectively. Trying to figure where the markets are going to zig or zag on a short-term basis is essentially a fool's errand.
That said, I did add a bit to my REIT holdings today, as I feel the next move(s) in interest rates will certainly be down.
6 dead in Washington State all of a sudden? WT you know what something is not adding up! I think they are hiding something in WAshington State. Sorry for the deceased.
A coronavirus patient after recovering in San Antonio, Texas, who was released from quarantine by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) after testing negative for two tests at a later date tested positive for the novel virus and is now back in quarantine. This has now happened in Japan, China and the US.
I’m on my way to Paris. The Louvre has been shuttered but all the shopping malls are open. Not sure If there is any thing to read into this but full steam ahead.
Nice day to day to say the least on Wall St.
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I don't think I would want to travel any where right now...especially an area with known cases. While I personally don't think corona is a big deal for healthy people, you could get caught up in a quarantine.
@Justacommeman said:
I’m on my way to Paris. The Louvre has been shuttered but all the shopping malls are open. Not sure If there is any thing to read into this but full steam ahead.
On Sunday, March 1st, the Captain vacated the Diamond Princess Cruise ship as the last person aboard.
(Pictured above an accompanying tender as I phtographed it while aboard a tender on one of our departures from the Diamond Princess.)
The Diamond Princess Cruise ship that began its quarantine on February 5th has now as of Sunday March 1st had the last person leave the ship.
Fittingly, the Captain Gennaro Arma was the last to vacate the ship preceded by the 129 other crew members who had remained aboard. He is being credited with having done an admirable job helping his crew and the passengers through their ordeal.
Of the 3,711 who began the saga as it docked in Yokohama, 705 were identified as contracting the Coronavirus of which 5 Japanese and 1 Briton died. That is more than one fifth.
100% positive transactions with SurfinxHI, bigole, 1madman, collectorcoins, proofmorgan, Luke Marshall, silver pop, golden egg, point five zero,coin22lover, alohagary, blaircountycoin,joebb21
@Justacommeman said:
I’m on my way to Paris. The Louvre has been shuttered but all the shopping malls are open. Not sure If there is any thing to read into this but full steam ahead.
Nice day to day to say the least on Wall St.
m
An old coworker of mine and his family are there this week. Said it is an absolute ghost town.
It's hasn't affected my coin purchasing decision "yet" but if the virus starts popping up in my state, I'll probably stop going to local coins shows and just buy on line. I can't think of a much worse environment to spread the virus than a coin show. A bunch of older guys crammed into a poorly ventilated room, picking up and handling the same coins and slabs that everyone else is handling after sneezing and/or coughing into their hands, holding a coin up to your face to use your loupe and of course dripping mustard everywhere
Comments
You are correct, but I was forced into buying water because the tap water smells like rotten eggs in my city and it is hard to drink.
Forget bottled water. The toilet paper shelves at the local stores are empty because the media told people to stock up on toilet paper and paper towels. I mean...really?!?!?!?
First, the coughing starts....then, the wiping starts.....
Yeah I went to Costco this morning and got there a little early before they open (to get my traditional berries and Aussie Bites) and it was already a huge line out front waiting to get in, in the cold.
And then they were rushing down the isles with their carts grabbing bottled water and toilet paper. Dumbasses.
Dumb, but really clean I bet.
I am also close to ground zero in WA, it all came from one infected person travelling back from China:
"The team at the @seattleflustudy have sequenced the genome the #COVID19 community case reported yesterday from Snohomish County, WA, and have posted the sequence publicly to http://gisaid.org. There are some enormous implications here. 1/9
This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19, also from Snohomish County, viewable here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_division=Washington 2/9
This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks. 3/9
((cryptic transmission = undetected. After all, most coronavirus cases are mild. No doubt some people that get a mild case will think they have the flu. And if it is going to cost you $$$ to get tested for coronavirus, lots of people will not ask to be tested.))
I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China. 6/9"
Above statement is yesterday from Trevor Bedford, research scientist at Fred Hutchinson in the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division and the Computational Biology Program.
The stock market looks like it's about the same level as 3 months ago or so and it wasn't cheap then. Still too many unknowns on this virus right now and the market hates uncertainty.
Successful BST deals with mustangt and jesbroken. Now EVERYTHING is for sale.
So what is the cost to be tested and is it covered by insurance?
I know with Fidelity your money is not insured by the FDIC in the their money markets. If everything went south that would not be good.
second death in Washington State reported along with the first confirmed case in NYC.
Some perspective. In the last 6 weeks there have been:
3,000 deaths from COVID-19
800,000 deaths from smoking
800,000 deaths from heart disease
156,000 deaths from auto accidents
96,000 deaths from AIDS
It's no consolation to those affected, but mass panic isn't justified....... just yet.
I doubt there is actual "mass panic" among the general population but perhaps there is and it is warranted among those most at risk. my Sister is three years out from a double lung transplant and I fear for her. of the causes listed above, all but COVID-19 are lifestyle choices, even Heart Disease to a certain point. the factual evidence of the "spread" should illicit caution.
To be fair, your sister is also at risk from the flu which has millions of cases and thousands of deaths. That is the perspective more than the quoted cancer and AIDS figures.
Well if EVERYTHING went south, bullets and beans are the only useful things left. But I wouldn't recommend going 100% into bullets and beans over a little viral outbreak.
to be fair-er, she has been immunized against the flu. I will await your next post stating why at risk individuals don't need to worry about this.
No one hopes for anything but the best for your sister and anyone else. But she, or you, should NOT worry any more about the coronavirus than the flu.
At risk individuals should take precautions...including against influenza of which the immunizations is only one part.
The flu vaccine is 50-60% effective in healthy individuals (per CDC). So your sister still has orders of magnitude more risk from the flu than coronavirus.
Total GLOBAL coronavirus cases are at 90,000 with 80,000 of those still in the Hubei province of China. In the USA alone in 2019-2020 flu season, there have been 29 MILLION flu cases (per CDC) with 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths.
So, if you give your sister 60% chance of protection from the flu shot - which is the high end - the odds of her contracting the flu even using the 90,000 GLOBAL number against the USA only flu cases is 150x higher. The death rate in South Korea - an advanced country with advanced medical infrastructure - is running at only about 2x the influenze death rate. That means your sister has at least a 75x higher chance of dying from the flu than the coronavirus.
By all means, take precautions. But there is no need to panic.
why do you insist on riding the Flu horse?? give it a rest already, I expect that everyone who cares has heard you drone on about.
Hearing isn't the same as understanding. But, I will not mention other viruses again.
Let's talk traffic fatalities:
Globally, 1.25 million people die annually in road fatalities with more than 20 million people injured or disabled. Half of those deaths are in the 15 to 44 year-old population.
In 2018, in the U.S. alone, there were 36,000 motor vehicle fatalities representing 11.18 fatalities per 100,000 population. This represents 1.13 fatalities per 100 million miles traveled.
3,000 coronavirus deaths in a population of 7 billion people represents 0.04 fatalities per 100,000 population. That means that in 2020, you were more likely to die driving to Walmart to buy surgical masks than from the coronavirus.
Even in Hubei province China, the 2800 deaths in a population of 58 million represents 4.8 deaths per 100,000 population. In 2018 there were 4800 traffic fatalities in Hubei province China. So even in the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, you were twice as likely to die driving to the store than from the coronavirus.
There is just no point in panicking. People are horrible at risk assessment.
elicit, no?
All the other comparisons have been around have known percentage rates.
It’s the unknowns about corona and how it spreads and how it will eventually effect normal day to day life, crossed with it’s vast room to grow and spread is what has everyone freaked out.
elicit, yes!
You should be concerned about your sister because she is in the high risk category and she needs to take the precautions necessary not to get the virus. The typical flu kills 1 in 900 cases and the coronavirus kills 1 in 30.
CNN, which I seldom watch, reported last evening that the virus in China is slowing quickly. Perhaps this is good news. Mortality rate is high with those that have the fevers. Most, some 80% have no symptoms at all. Just a regular cold for them. But, the 20% that do get the fevers are the ones dying. So, if 80,000 are affected and 20% have issues and the death rate is 2,800 people, well you get 18%.
The CDC is sending 93 testing kits out tomorrow, all across the country.
Stay healthy, shop for groceries online if need be and have delivered. Disinfect and stay out of the public if it hits your town. Just be safe friends.
bob
That 18% number is really odd. Why not just say that among the dead, 100% died? You've filtered down the actual mortality rate to a larger percentage by ignoring the vast majority of people (more than 80%) who don't have issues.
The mortality rate in South Korea is under 0.5%
Most of the deaths are among people that have respiratory issues or are immune compromised. For example, there is a 15% mortality rate among people over 80 in China.
This is what I was trying to point out.....just worded incorrectly!
bob
Oh, gotcha.
Yes, people in high risk groups should take precautions. But, frankly, they should take precautions this time of year all of the time and probably are. The people who need to think twice are the people most likely to infect others. People should stay home if sick rather than toughing it out and going about their normal routines. It is a service to others.
I concur. I'm over 70 and so is my wife. I probably have had more health issues than her but we both are extremely conscious of our surroundings. So far there are no cases here in Nevada and we pray it stays that way. But, we are still out and about just a lot more cautiously. Wife went shopping at 5 am to beat any rush this morning. Less people, less chance of catching something, 'eh?
bob
I went to Wallyworld early to stock up.
Everyone stayed clear of one another, heard no coughing or sneezing.
Went to the 91% Alcohol isle and there was none
Wallyworld lady came by and started stocking the shelf so I grabbed two.
China has taken extensive measures to stop the spread of the virus, and it looks like it is paying some dividends, Japan has taken precautionary measures to stop the virus. The UK has announced a plan that they will do what it takes to stop the virus. Iran had a do nothing plan and that was a disaster, and they are now taking measures to stop the spread. It appears in the US that the virus may have a foothold in the state of Washington because of testing failures. It remains to be seen how the US will handle the Washington area if it does become a problem out of control like China, Italy, South Korea or Iran.
Ok pros ......
..... How long should this dead cat bounce last???
1 day 2 days 3 days?
Most folks here are prolly too proud or haughty to admit they shop at The World of Wally. FWIW you can buy the 90% IPA at Sams for what WW charges for the 70%.
Don't need IPA,I got Coke and 91% and Grape juice and 91%
Rubbing alcohol AKA isopropyl alcohol/IPA comes in 2 strengths 70% and 90%.
It really depends. China was reopening factories. If cooler heads prevail, we may have seen the bottom. If not...anything could be a trigger. I think the fact that 2 deaths in the US over the weekend didn't drop the market might mean cooler heads are prevailing.
Europe finished green. Shanghai was up 3%.
I am going back to cash within 3 days,
IMO, no way we don't test and most likely break recent lows, IMO.
I'm not looking at it that way. I see important S&P 500 levels as 2855 to the downside and 3100 to the upside. While it stays within that range, I'm not going to do anything drastic. If it closes below the former or above the latter, I'd be highly motivated to sell and buy, respectively. Trying to figure where the markets are going to zig or zag on a short-term basis is essentially a fool's errand.
That said, I did add a bit to my REIT holdings today, as I feel the next move(s) in interest rates will certainly be down.
three more deaths reported in the Seattle area.
XOM with a 6.5% yield?
It might edge lower in the next 30 days, but you wont see these valuations for another 30 years.
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one additional death in the Seattle area to bring the US total to six. I believe they are all at a nursing home.
Yes. Apparently 50 cases in the nursing home of 180 people.
Condolences to those who have passed.
Priced in today as the market was open.
Panic buying, market up 5%
Most likely sell tomorrow
6 dead in Washington State all of a sudden? WT you know what something is not adding up! I think they are hiding something in WAshington State.
Sorry for the deceased. 
A coronavirus patient after recovering in San Antonio, Texas, who was released from quarantine by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) after testing negative for two tests at a later date tested positive for the novel virus and is now back in quarantine. This has now happened in Japan, China and the US.
I’m on my way to Paris. The Louvre has been shuttered but all the shopping malls are open. Not sure If there is any thing to read into this but full steam ahead.
Nice day to day to say the least on Wall St.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
This is like some bad remake of the Army of the 12 Monkeys...
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I don't think I would want to travel any where right now...especially an area with known cases. While I personally don't think corona is a big deal for healthy people, you could get caught up in a quarantine.
On Sunday, March 1st, the Captain vacated the Diamond Princess Cruise ship as the last person aboard.
(Pictured above an accompanying tender as I phtographed it while aboard a tender on one of our departures from the Diamond Princess.)
The Diamond Princess Cruise ship that began its quarantine on February 5th has now as of Sunday March 1st had the last person leave the ship.
Fittingly, the Captain Gennaro Arma was the last to vacate the ship preceded by the 129 other crew members who had remained aboard. He is being credited with having done an admirable job helping his crew and the passengers through their ordeal.
Of the 3,711 who began the saga as it docked in Yokohama, 705 were identified as contracting the Coronavirus of which 5 Japanese and 1 Briton died. That is more than one fifth.
Great picture!
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An old coworker of mine and his family are there this week. Said it is an absolute ghost town.
It's hasn't affected my coin purchasing decision "yet" but if the virus starts popping up in my state, I'll probably stop going to local coins shows and just buy on line. I can't think of a much worse environment to spread the virus than a coin show. A bunch of older guys crammed into a poorly ventilated room, picking up and handling the same coins and slabs that everyone else is handling after sneezing and/or coughing into their hands, holding a coin up to your face to use your loupe and of course dripping mustard everywhere
Pardon me, wrong message in the wrong thread.