This virus has already set up shop in Wuhan. We will know in the next 30-60 days if it gets a firm foothold in the U.S.
They say that 90% of Chinese small & medium enterprises don't have the capacity to withstand a 90 day shutdown. A lot of individual components of items we make & buy come from these SME's. Might be a good time to think about your personal & business supply lines.
Might be a good time to get out ahead of the situation, in case of SHTF.
I.E. Every lug nut on a Ford Motor car has been made in Taiwan or Mainland China since 1955. Sooner or later they will( or may) run out of lug nuts & then the new car sits.
@1northcoin said:
To recap with some added facts regarding the saga of the Diamond Princess now that it has been announced it will not return to passenger cruising until at least April 29th.
When the ship first went under quarantine in Yokohama Harbor over two weeks ago there were 2,666 passengers and 1,045 crew members aboard, At that point 10 people had been identified as infected with the Coronavirus. That number eventually reached at least 691 plus at least one health official who had come on board.
While half of those who tested positive for the virus had no symptoms, three died, All three were in their 80s with the first two (84 and 87) having had serious unrelated health issues,
At least as of several days ago, half of the diagnosed Coronavirus infected persons outside of China had been aboard the Diamond Princess.
BBC world News reports that South Korea already has over 1000 cases.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@privatecoin said:
Automobiles are more deadly. Ban automobiles now!
The mods shut down the last thread regarding the impact of the Coronavirus when it veered off topic.
Point well taken but there is a looming economic impact that potentially impacts our hobby arising out of the present crises regardless of its death toll.
It is interesting to note that most here seem to now be taking the threat more seriously now that we have seen the virus spreading to South Korea and Europe along with record drops in the DOW Index.
It wasn’t exactly reassuring to hear the head of the world health organization announce yesterday that it was no longer a question of if, but rather when, the U.S. will follow suit.
@Aercus said:
assuming China's numbers can be trusted.
I hope it is not as bad as the worldwide flu pandemic at the close of WWI - more people died from the flu than in the war,
Back in December while laid up with a herniated disk I saw a documentary about the Spanish Flu.
They traced the origin back to an Army base in Kansas (?) and it spread with the dispersal of troops East. If they had only sent troops to Europe that had recovered from the flu instead of infected soldiers it would have made a great difference. It even spread to German troops and their movements further caused its spread.
During the Paris Peace Talks, President Wilson was stricken for about a week and it affected how some of the negotiations progressed.
Contrast the wide devastation and rapid spread even with rudimentary modes of travel in 1918 with the fluid modes of modern transportation.
13 Monkeys comes to mind...
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@privatecoin said:
Automobiles are more deadly. Ban automobiles now!
The mods shut down the last thread regarding the impact of the Coronavirus when it veered off topic.
Point well taken but there is a looming economic impact that potentially impacts our hobby arising out of the present crises regardless of its death toll.
It is interesting to note that most here seem to now be taking the threat more seriously now that we have seen the virus spreading to South Korea and Europe along with record drops in the DOW Index.
It wasn’t exactly reassuring to hear the head of the world health organization announce yesterday that it was no longer a question of if, but rather when, the U.S. will follow suit.
It will get here eventually. I also don't care or fear, nor should anyone else. Don't let the talking heads rattle your cages.
It is not at all clear that it is more deadly than the regular seasonal flu. As the on ship data showed, a lot of people who test positive have NO symptoms and NO illness and NO risk of death. The dead, however, are easy to count. As a result, all stated mortality rates are currently inflated.
You have about 10x as many deaths in the U.S. alone RIGHT NOW from the season flu than have died globally from COVID-19.
JM don’t take advice on health from rush limbaugh. Flu in US .01 mortality and it is largely seasonal. Hopefully this will be seasonal as well but has a solid 2-3% mortality and there is no flu shot preventative or tamiflu post exposure. Is the sky falling...no. However being prepared before SHTF is probably a good idea. Starting with some n95 respirators if you can find them.
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And good luck finding those N95 respirator’s, by the way. Great discussion and I to hope it continues without the moderator stepping in once it reaches the typical political crescendo.
@Mgarmy said:
JM don’t take advice on health from rush limbaugh. Flu in US .01 mortality and it is largely seasonal. Hopefully this will be seasonal as well but has a solid 2-3% mortality and there is no flu shot preventative or tamiflu post exposure. Is the sky falling...no. However being prepared before SHTF is probably a good idea. Starting with some n95 respirators if you can find them.
I don't listen to Rush Limbaugh.
The mortality rate of this is MUCH less than 2%. It appears to be 2% because they are underestimating the number of infected people because so many of them are asymptomatic. The numbers in JAMA show high death rates in the 80+ year-old population and very little in the young population, much like the normal flu.
Don't take your health advice from the news media who love to hype disasters or politicians who will never let a disaster go unused.
JM I work for the shop coordinating US response...my numbers are solid I would like nothing more than to be wrong
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@Mgarmy said:
JM I work for the shop coordinating US response...my numbers are solid I would like nothing more than to be wrong
Then do a little research and see what they thought the mortality rates were for previous viral outbreaks when first discovered. They are almost always estimated as much higher than they turn out to be for the reasons I mentioned.
Outside of Wuhan, China is reporting 0.3% fatality rates in the other provinces.
like I said, hope you are right. But humor me and get some provisions in...would hate to lose you
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@MilesWaits said:
And good luck finding those N95 respirator’s, by the way. Great discussion and I to hope it continues without the moderator stepping in once it reaches the typical political crescendo.
Agreed. Here are photos I took of the above discussed Diamond Princess Cruise Ship from last year when it was free to roam the seas;
Asked at a press conference on February 4 what the current mortality rate (or case fatality rate, CFR) is, an official with China NHC said that [7]:
The formula they are using is: cumulative current total deaths / current confirmed cases. Therefore, as of 24:00 on Feb. 3, the formula used was 425/20,438.
Based on this figure, the national mortality rate to date was 2.1% of confirmed cases.
There might be mild cases and other cases not reported.
97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%. Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases were still mild cases, therefore there was no need to panic. Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHC official replied that it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.
The total number of cases globally has now reached 80,980 and nearly 3,000 have died. Today there were more new cases outside of China then in China. This is current as of around noon on 26 feb
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The total number of cases globally has now reached 80,980 and nearly 3,000 have died. Today there were more new cases outside of China then in China. This is current as of around noon on 26 feb
Yes, but again, there is underreporting of the number infected. The best test case is the closed system of the Diamond Princess where they tested people before letting them off. 621 people were infected. Most were asymptomatic. 2, I believe, died: an 84-year-old and an 87-year-old who had other health issues.
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JM I am not contesting the point that elderly and those with preexisting compromised systems are at greater risk
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@Mgarmy said:
The total number of cases globally has now reached 80,980 and nearly 3,000 have died. Today there were more new cases outside of China then in China. This is current as of around noon on 26 feb
And 2715 of the 2800 deaths and were in Wuhan China.
Which is where the outbreak began, let’s see if 2% holds up. South Korea over a thousand in a couple days ish
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@Mgarmy said:
Which is where the outbreak began, let’s see if 2% holds up. South Korea over a thousand in a couple days ish
I'm not telling people that it is nothing. I'm telling people not to panic. Normal flu precautions are probably all that you need. And with the abundance of caution being used globally, there is simply no reason to panic.
@ErrorsOnCoins said:
The VIX says it's a screaming Buy IMO. Bought 1/3 back into the market with an index fund from a 100% Capital preservation fund just now.
TVIX offers twice the gains in a declining stock market.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
We are far from peak corona virus. Fear will continue to outweigh greed on Wall St. Declines in PMs are strictly a result of selling them to meet margin calls. Look for much higher PM prices until a proven vaccine is available. PM price drops will be periodic as unproven preliminary vaccine announcements are used strictly to calm the masses. Remember, it is the media, that is in full control of the battle between fear and greed. Control of the media is essential to controlling fear. Controlling fear (and printing money) is essential to controlling the Wall St. indices.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
The past three days I have purchased extra food, vitamins, and medical supplies when I've had the opportunity. Coordinated with family on contingency plan if this develops into a full blown crisis.
Yes, mindful of the media hype, and also aware of what may occur if 80,000,000 people in this country realize they don't have enough food, or a plan, and simultaneously hit the panic button...this could devolve in a bigger crisis than the contagion itself. That is my concern, and also the unknown of what measures will be implemented...
Quarantine in areas of outbreak is probably a given,..maybe marshal law?...Just make sure you buy your favorite Merlot, or Bourbon to ride out this storm.
@Aercus said:
assuming China's numbers can be trusted.
I hope it is not as bad as the worldwide flu pandemic at the close of WWI - more people died from the flu than in the war,
Back in December while laid up with a herniated disk I saw a documentary about the Spanish Flu.
They traced the origin back to an Army base in Kansas (?) and it spread with the dispersal of troops East. If they had only sent troops to Europe that had recovered from the flu instead of infected soldiers it would have made a great difference. It even spread to German troops and their movements further caused its spread.
During the Paris Peace Talks, President Wilson was stricken for about a week and it affected how some of the negotiations progressed.
Contrast the wide devastation and rapid spread even with rudimentary modes of travel in 1918 with the fluid modes of modern transportation.
13 Monkeys comes to mind...
My Grandfathers unit, during WWI, was quarantined here in the states in 1918. Someone in his unit had the Spanish flu. They never did leave to Europe.
My great, great, Grandfather died of the Spanish flu in 1919.
I'm the last person anyone should ask for stock advice. I've made relatively little in the markets over the past 10 years. Although, from 1985-2010 I managed to do rather well. Simply put, I made a living for my family trading my own account. That was my occupation.
I studied the history of the markets when I was quite a bit younger. I learned that a true buying point was when most felt pain. A 5-10% drop isn't it. Markets fall by 50% on average every 10 years. Is it due? Who knows. Can one make money by buying high and selling higher? Sure. I deem that not investing but speculating which is ok. The "big money" is made by buying real panic not the dips. The market movement over the past week or so is not a major panic. Although buying dips can work for quite awhile.
The CB's/fed were never as involved, historically, as they are today,. Is the market strong due to a strong economy or is the economy strong due to rising asset prices? A year or so ago the markets lost over 15% in the final quarter as the Fed tried to normalize rates. They found it couldn't be done. Thus, low and lower interest rates are their prime tool to keep assets levitated and will work until it doesn't. IMO...When CB's lose control of the bond markets the jig is up. They are in the game.
The virus is causing analysts/investors to try to understand what the new growth rate is for the economy and therefore earnings. The uncertainty is being caused by more questions than answers regarding the virus. Will it disappear in the warmer weather? Will it return when the weather turns colder? Will any business that relies on crowds being together suffer (airlines, movies, restaurants, hotels,etc)? Does the virus help a Netflix?
A market that's richly valued will suffer more than a cheaper one. That's today's problem. Over time, wars, famines diseases are all noise affecting the markets short term squiggles and mean little over time. Perhaps, a slight correction now is all that was needed before new highs are to be seen? It won't always be this way.
Perhaps the market will shake off the nervousness rather quickly? The virus could be deemed as less harmful than feared. The market might anticipate the worst due to players fears and a sharp rally would commence. That would be good.
My whole point is when people are most certain about a market's direction the greater the likelihood that a major market reversal is near. Buying the dips are in vogue today? How long has it been since dip buyers were punished?
That's how muscle memory works.
I started in the business in the early eighties and the mindset was so different. Coming off the high inflation of the 70's and high interest rates stocks weren't particularly appealing to the masses. It was easy to earn double digit returns in fixed income so why buy stocks? In reality, assets were cheap in those days since stocks had major competition from bonds. Today, all I hear is "there is no where else to put my money". That statement concerns me greatly since I wonder if that means stocks are very richly valued due to no competition? Perhaps I've seen too much? Perhaps, I'm just old and really don't understand as much as I used to?
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Let’s say this blows over in a month. Supply chains are so tight these days to begin with. With so much business done on the internet and excess inventory is treated like poison companies will be short goods if you import from Asia. For sure earnings will be effected almost across the board for most anything. For my company it takes about 70 “parts” to make a finished product. Right now there are suppliers who aren’t open or willing to quote deliver dates. All it takes is one part and we can’t produce. That pretty much applies to anybody who has a footprint in Asia. We can make things that all the components are already in factories. Stuff that didn’t get made before Chinese New Year. BUT new orders are a different animal.
Right now Fed Ex won’t pick up in China where we are in the south. We have to bring it to them. Once China is open there will be a tremendous back log on components and shipping. A lot of people are going to want to fly goods to make their quarters. Air rates have spiked and will continue to do so. This on top of tariffs are going to erode margins substantially or one could choose just to take a hit and not deliver on time. Either way it is less then desirable.
Yes some of this is baked into current prices. I still think most in the US have rose color glasses on. We still have Americans trapped in China and they can’t leave the cities they are holed up on. About 50% of workers in the LESS effected areas of China are back to work where we are
I spend one week a month in China. Personally I’m enjoying the break. I have an office in Mexico City and Amsterdam and I’ll be working my one week a month there. I’m scheduled to go to Paris and London next week but that might even be sketchy. I’m a designer but I will tell you my financial and logistic guys are sweating more then usual. We have already warned the street and we will warn again shortly.
As far as coins go I will bid on over six figures worth of coins in the SB auction. For a fact I will take my bids down by at least one increment. I’m glad I don’t have anything I’m selling in any future auctions.
Moral of the story. Don’t eat bats that’s what chicken wings are for.
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I am also concerned if our drug supply gets tight if China is disrupted too badly. US gets a lot of our drugs from China
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@derryb said:
We are far from peak corona virus. Fear will continue to outweigh greed on Wall St. Declines in PMs are strictly a result of selling them to meet margin calls. Look for much higher PM prices until a proven vaccine is available. PM price drops will be periodic as unproven preliminary vaccine announcements are used strictly to calm the masses. Remember, it is the media, that is in full control of the battle between fear and greed. Control of the media is essential to controlling fear. Controlling fear (and printing money) is essential to controlling the Wall St. indices.
No vaccine will be available this year. Vaccines also don't cure anything. This fear will not last for a year or more.
@Aercus said:
assuming China's numbers can be trusted.
I hope it is not as bad as the worldwide flu pandemic at the close of WWI - more people died from the flu than in the war,
Back in December while laid up with a herniated disk I saw a documentary about the Spanish Flu.
They traced the origin back to an Army base in Kansas (?) and it spread with the dispersal of troops East. If they had only sent troops to Europe that had recovered from the flu instead of infected soldiers it would have made a great difference. It even spread to German troops and their movements further caused its spread.
During the Paris Peace Talks, President Wilson was stricken for about a week and it affected how some of the negotiations progressed.
Contrast the wide devastation and rapid spread even with rudimentary modes of travel in 1918 with the fluid modes of modern transportation.
13 Monkeys comes to mind...
My Grandfathers unit, during WWI, was quarantined here in the states in 1918. Someone in his unit had the Spanish flu. They never did leave to Europe.
My great, great, Grandfather died of the Spanish flu in 1919.
My great great grandmother also died from the Spanish Flu in 1919. She was 35 and at the time was trying to ween her child since “The Grip” (contemporary term for the Spanish Flu) was rampant in the area. She was dead within a week or so.
This was a very traumatizing experience for my great grandmother, who was 7 years old when her mother died. Apparently she would avoid walking along the roads and would walk through backyards and fields to get home to avoid the sight of all of the wreaths hanging on people’s doors. People would hang a wreath on their door when a family member died to alert the body collectors to stop by.
The trauma that the Spanish Flu caused for my great grandmother caused dysfunction in the family that is still felt over 100 years later. Hopefully the coronavirus isn’t as lethal as the Spanish Flu.
If one believes that Wall St rules the roost in the US and that a high stock market is important politically then rescind the tariffs. The markets would rocket.
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Country by country response is fast moving. Japan is preparing to take significant measures as reported from news feed from Japan at this moment.
Starting tomorrow no tourists from China or South Korea will be allowed entry into Japan.
The opening games of this year’s baseball season will be played in empty stadiums. Artists and performers who have scheduled e ents have been requested to postpone them until after March 15th at the earliest,
Public schools in Hokkaido where 49 cases have been identified are closed. Schools in other areas are adjusting their starting times so students who commute by train can avoid crowded commutes.
While Japan is not the authoritarian country that China is there exists a self imposed adherence to requests and regulations that is unlike what we are familiar with in the United States - a sentiment that is ironically reflected by responses on this thread.
As the news cast continues detailed instructions are being given as to how to protect against the spread of the virus in each Japanese home with for example limiting the care and contact of a family member to only one other family member for anyone with cold or flu like symptoms.
@Justacommeman said:
Let’s say this blows over in a month. Supply chains are so tight these days to begin with. With so much business done on the internet and excess inventory is treated like poison companies will be short goods if you import from Asia. For sure earnings will be effected almost across the board for most anything. For my company it takes about 70 “parts” to make a finished product. Right now there are suppliers who aren’t open or willing to quote deliver dates. All it takes is one part and we can’t produce. That pretty much applies to anybody who has a footprint in Asia. We can make things that all the components are already in factories. Stuff that didn’t get made before Chinese New Year. BUT new orders are a different animal.
Right now Fed Ex won’t pick up in China where we are in the south. We have to bring it to them. Once China is open there will be a tremendous back log on components and shipping. A lot of people are going to want to fly goods to make their quarters. Air rates have spiked and will continue to do so. This on top of tariffs are going to erode margins substantially or one could choose just to take a hit and not deliver on time. Either way it is less then desirable.
Yes some of this is baked into current prices. I still think most in the US have rose color glasses on. We still have Americans trapped in China and they can’t leave the cities they are holed up on. About 50% of workers in the LESS effected areas of China are back to work where we are
I spend one week a month in China. Personally I’m enjoying the break. I have an office in Mexico City and Amsterdam and I’ll be working my one week a month there. I’m scheduled to go to Paris and London next week but that might even be sketchy. I’m a designer but I will tell you my financial and logistic guys are sweating more then usual. We have already warned the street and we will warn again shortly.
As far as coins go I will bid on over six figures worth of coins in the SB auction. For a fact I will take my bids down by at least one increment. I’m glad I don’t have anything I’m selling in any future auctions.
Moral of the story. Don’t eat bats that’s what chicken wings are for.
mark
Regarding FedEx, loads are way down. I spent two weeks flying intra Asia; five days were in three cities in China from mid-January to February 6. On one leg from Osaka to Guangzhou we were completely empty,...and that was on a 777F. My last leg was to New Delhi, only 22k pounds of freight (out of China), normally it's 150k+. Now we have pilots who refuse to fly to China for obvious reasons. Once you are in 'self-quarantine' you are a leper...other countries don't want you in if you've been to China within 14 days. I'm one of them, well, was. So what happens? Trips get dropped, revised until a sequence works causing the new crew going through China to add 14 days of 'quarantine' to their life which in turn drops them from future trips if going through certain cities. It's a mess that gets revised daily. I would not want to be one of those honchos-in-charge trying to figure this out. I'm just cog in the flywheel.
I believe this virus is worse than we are being led to believe it is. They are talking like it is not a big deal and telling people to not panic but that's exactly what they don't want is for people to panic because just imagine what it would be like outside of your home if everyone did panic. Hell, I used to work at a grocery store years ago (mid 80's) stocking shelves and there was just talk about us going on strike and it was looking like we were going to one day and you should have seen what it was like in the store when everyone thought we were going on strike that one day, the store was wiped out of everything on the shelves, even stuff that took a hell of a long time to sell was gone, all of the shelves were bare!
Now that was just talk of a strike that was adverted on the day before it was to take place, now just imagine what it would be like if they really let on that this is a lot worse than what they are saying it is, there would be mass panic. I remember just about a week and a half ago that they were saying that a little over a thousand people had the virus and that there were a couple of people have died from it, well just not too long later here they are saying now that 82000 (thousand) are infected with it and over 2800 (hundred) have died from it so far. Tell me they are telling us the truth about what is really going on with this virus. Hell, I knew it was bad when they wouldn't let doctors treat patients that were first discovered with the virus and were having robots taking care of them. Now in a very short amount of time, there is almost a hundred thousand people infected, a couple of thousand dead and people dying every day from it.
Yeah, don't panic, its never good to panic, just get prepared, stocked up on food and water in your house and maybe to be there for awhile just in case.
Like I mentioned before - start washing your hands like crazy and stop touching your face etc. May save your life or that of someone you love.
Fear and panic are not helpful. A cavalier attitude isn’t either. It’s a dangerous disease and you don’t want it. So wash and remember - no nose picking.
@oldUScoins said:
Like I mentioned before - start washing your hands like crazy and stop touching your face etc. May save your life or that of someone you love.
Fear and panic are not helpful. A cavalier attitude isn’t either. It’s a dangerous disease and you don’t want it. So wash and remember - no nose picking.
The nose, eyes, and mouth are the main entry points so if you touch a contaminated object such as a door knob in a public area, keep your hands away from these areas. Also, a doctor on TV suggested pushing the buttons on a public elevator using a knuckle on the back of your hand in case you reflexively touch your face with your fingers.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I'm not an expert on money. After all, I blow my disposable funds on silly round pieces of metal.
I am an expert on communicable diseases.
Don't panic. Take precautions in public places as you should be doing anyway during flu season. Don't wear a mask everywhere or stock up with 3 years of canned goods. Do wash your hands, stay away from sick people, and stay home from school or work if you're sick. Avoid all nonessential travel to China or anywhere else where the virus is being transmitted locally. Be smart about the risk and follow CDC and local health department alerts. At present there is no significant local transmission in the United States. This could change, but right now that is the situation.
I know that's boring. It's not as sexy as saying "the sky is falling" or "the media/government is lying". Sorry for that.
NAP 👍I would only add be very mindful of touching your eyes. Hand washing and not touching your eyes are huge. And if you can get n95 respirator if SHTF would not be a bad idea.
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Comments
Like any other negative world event some will profit largely, some will lose largely. Time for some to jump in and others to jump out.
This virus has already set up shop in Wuhan. We will know in the next 30-60 days if it gets a firm foothold in the U.S.
They say that 90% of Chinese small & medium enterprises don't have the capacity to withstand a 90 day shutdown. A lot of individual components of items we make & buy come from these SME's. Might be a good time to think about your personal & business supply lines.
Might be a good time to get out ahead of the situation, in case of SHTF.
I.E. Every lug nut on a Ford Motor car has been made in Taiwan or Mainland China since 1955. Sooner or later they will( or may) run out of lug nuts & then the new car sits.
OldUSCoins says to not pick my nose. Troubling.😪
BBC world News reports that South Korea already has over 1000 cases.
*
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Automobiles are more deadly. Ban automobiles now!
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
The mods shut down the last thread regarding the impact of the Coronavirus when it veered off topic.
Point well taken but there is a looming economic impact that potentially impacts our hobby arising out of the present crises regardless of its death toll.
It is interesting to note that most here seem to now be taking the threat more seriously now that we have seen the virus spreading to South Korea and Europe along with record drops in the DOW Index.
It wasn’t exactly reassuring to hear the head of the world health organization announce yesterday that it was no longer a question of if, but rather when, the U.S. will follow suit.
Back in December while laid up with a herniated disk I saw a documentary about the Spanish Flu.
They traced the origin back to an Army base in Kansas (?) and it spread with the dispersal of troops East. If they had only sent troops to Europe that had recovered from the flu instead of infected soldiers it would have made a great difference. It even spread to German troops and their movements further caused its spread.
During the Paris Peace Talks, President Wilson was stricken for about a week and it affected how some of the negotiations progressed.
Contrast the wide devastation and rapid spread even with rudimentary modes of travel in 1918 with the fluid modes of modern transportation.
13 Monkeys comes to mind...
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
It will get here eventually. I also don't care or fear, nor should anyone else. Don't let the talking heads rattle your cages.
It is not at all clear that it is more deadly than the regular seasonal flu. As the on ship data showed, a lot of people who test positive have NO symptoms and NO illness and NO risk of death. The dead, however, are easy to count. As a result, all stated mortality rates are currently inflated.
You have about 10x as many deaths in the U.S. alone RIGHT NOW from the season flu than have died globally from COVID-19.
JM don’t take advice on health from rush limbaugh. Flu in US .01 mortality and it is largely seasonal. Hopefully this will be seasonal as well but has a solid 2-3% mortality and there is no flu shot preventative or tamiflu post exposure. Is the sky falling...no. However being prepared before SHTF is probably a good idea. Starting with some n95 respirators if you can find them.
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I heard the phrase "not a Zombie Apocalypse" on a financial channel today. They did say "not" but they also said the words "Zombie Apocalypse"
Considering putting the next 1/3 back in today???
Edit: Did it. 2/3 back in. May sell the bounce or buy last third on a drop depending on which way it goes.
And good luck finding those N95 respirator’s, by the way. Great discussion and I to hope it continues without the moderator stepping in once it reaches the typical political crescendo.
I don't listen to Rush Limbaugh.
The mortality rate of this is MUCH less than 2%. It appears to be 2% because they are underestimating the number of infected people because so many of them are asymptomatic. The numbers in JAMA show high death rates in the 80+ year-old population and very little in the young population, much like the normal flu.
Don't take your health advice from the news media who love to hype disasters or politicians who will never let a disaster go unused.
JM I work for the shop coordinating US response...my numbers are solid I would like nothing more than to be wrong
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Then do a little research and see what they thought the mortality rates were for previous viral outbreaks when first discovered. They are almost always estimated as much higher than they turn out to be for the reasons I mentioned.
Outside of Wuhan, China is reporting 0.3% fatality rates in the other provinces.
like I said, hope you are right. But humor me and get some provisions in...would hate to lose you
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Agreed. Here are photos I took of the above discussed Diamond Princess Cruise Ship from last year when it was free to roam the seas;
Asked at a press conference on February 4 what the current mortality rate (or case fatality rate, CFR) is, an official with China NHC said that [7]:
The formula they are using is: cumulative current total deaths / current confirmed cases. Therefore, as of 24:00 on Feb. 3, the formula used was 425/20,438.
Based on this figure, the national mortality rate to date was 2.1% of confirmed cases.
There might be mild cases and other cases not reported.
97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases were still mild cases, therefore there was no need to panic.
Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHC official replied that it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.
The total number of cases globally has now reached 80,980 and nearly 3,000 have died. Today there were more new cases outside of China then in China. This is current as of around noon on 26 feb
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said:
Yes, but again, there is underreporting of the number infected. The best test case is the closed system of the Diamond Princess where they tested people before letting them off. 621 people were infected. Most were asymptomatic. 2, I believe, died: an 84-year-old and an 87-year-old who had other health issues.
This is a pretty great resource if you are interested and there is only a little lag
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
100% positive transactions with SurfinxHI, bigole, 1madman, collectorcoins, proofmorgan, Luke Marshall, silver pop, golden egg, point five zero,coin22lover, alohagary, blaircountycoin,joebb21
Don't worry, I always have 6 months of freeze-dried supplies ready to go.
JM I am not contesting the point that elderly and those with preexisting compromised systems are at greater risk
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And 2715 of the 2800 deaths and were in Wuhan China.
Which is where the outbreak began, let’s see if 2% holds up. South Korea over a thousand in a couple days ish
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I'm not telling people that it is nothing. I'm telling people not to panic. Normal flu precautions are probably all that you need. And with the abundance of caution being used globally, there is simply no reason to panic.
I'll let everyone know when it is time to panic.
And they did not know what to do with it nor did they, it appears, have the infrastructure to deal with it.
It's a bad cold.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I drink apple cider vinegar.
Is there a good cold?
TVIX offers twice the gains in a declining stock market.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
We are far from peak corona virus. Fear will continue to outweigh greed on Wall St. Declines in PMs are strictly a result of selling them to meet margin calls. Look for much higher PM prices until a proven vaccine is available. PM price drops will be periodic as unproven preliminary vaccine announcements are used strictly to calm the masses. Remember, it is the media, that is in full control of the battle between fear and greed. Control of the media is essential to controlling fear. Controlling fear (and printing money) is essential to controlling the Wall St. indices.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
The past three days I have purchased extra food, vitamins, and medical supplies when I've had the opportunity. Coordinated with family on contingency plan if this develops into a full blown crisis.
Yes, mindful of the media hype, and also aware of what may occur if 80,000,000 people in this country realize they don't have enough food, or a plan, and simultaneously hit the panic button...this could devolve in a bigger crisis than the contagion itself. That is my concern, and also the unknown of what measures will be implemented...
Quarantine in areas of outbreak is probably a given,..maybe marshal law?...Just make sure you buy your favorite Merlot, or Bourbon to ride out this storm.
TVIX
LOL, I remember looking at those types of leveraged funds and said wow, never hold these for more than a few days, preferably never
For professionals only which I am not.
My Grandfathers unit, during WWI, was quarantined here in the states in 1918. Someone in his unit had the Spanish flu. They never did leave to Europe.
My great, great, Grandfather died of the Spanish flu in 1919.
I'm the last person anyone should ask for stock advice. I've made relatively little in the markets over the past 10 years. Although, from 1985-2010 I managed to do rather well. Simply put, I made a living for my family trading my own account. That was my occupation.
I studied the history of the markets when I was quite a bit younger. I learned that a true buying point was when most felt pain. A 5-10% drop isn't it. Markets fall by 50% on average every 10 years. Is it due? Who knows. Can one make money by buying high and selling higher? Sure. I deem that not investing but speculating which is ok. The "big money" is made by buying real panic not the dips. The market movement over the past week or so is not a major panic. Although buying dips can work for quite awhile.
The CB's/fed were never as involved, historically, as they are today,. Is the market strong due to a strong economy or is the economy strong due to rising asset prices? A year or so ago the markets lost over 15% in the final quarter as the Fed tried to normalize rates. They found it couldn't be done. Thus, low and lower interest rates are their prime tool to keep assets levitated and will work until it doesn't. IMO...When CB's lose control of the bond markets the jig is up. They are in the game.
The virus is causing analysts/investors to try to understand what the new growth rate is for the economy and therefore earnings. The uncertainty is being caused by more questions than answers regarding the virus. Will it disappear in the warmer weather? Will it return when the weather turns colder? Will any business that relies on crowds being together suffer (airlines, movies, restaurants, hotels,etc)? Does the virus help a Netflix?
A market that's richly valued will suffer more than a cheaper one. That's today's problem. Over time, wars, famines diseases are all noise affecting the markets short term squiggles and mean little over time. Perhaps, a slight correction now is all that was needed before new highs are to be seen? It won't always be this way.
Perhaps the market will shake off the nervousness rather quickly? The virus could be deemed as less harmful than feared. The market might anticipate the worst due to players fears and a sharp rally would commence. That would be good.
My whole point is when people are most certain about a market's direction the greater the likelihood that a major market reversal is near. Buying the dips are in vogue today? How long has it been since dip buyers were punished?
That's how muscle memory works.
I started in the business in the early eighties and the mindset was so different. Coming off the high inflation of the 70's and high interest rates stocks weren't particularly appealing to the masses. It was easy to earn double digit returns in fixed income so why buy stocks? In reality, assets were cheap in those days since stocks had major competition from bonds. Today, all I hear is "there is no where else to put my money". That statement concerns me greatly since I wonder if that means stocks are very richly valued due to no competition? Perhaps I've seen too much? Perhaps, I'm just old and really don't understand as much as I used to?
Great capture JKRK. Tip of the hat Sir
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Let’s say this blows over in a month. Supply chains are so tight these days to begin with. With so much business done on the internet and excess inventory is treated like poison companies will be short goods if you import from Asia. For sure earnings will be effected almost across the board for most anything. For my company it takes about 70 “parts” to make a finished product. Right now there are suppliers who aren’t open or willing to quote deliver dates. All it takes is one part and we can’t produce. That pretty much applies to anybody who has a footprint in Asia. We can make things that all the components are already in factories. Stuff that didn’t get made before Chinese New Year. BUT new orders are a different animal.
Right now Fed Ex won’t pick up in China where we are in the south. We have to bring it to them. Once China is open there will be a tremendous back log on components and shipping. A lot of people are going to want to fly goods to make their quarters. Air rates have spiked and will continue to do so. This on top of tariffs are going to erode margins substantially or one could choose just to take a hit and not deliver on time. Either way it is less then desirable.
Yes some of this is baked into current prices. I still think most in the US have rose color glasses on. We still have Americans trapped in China and they can’t leave the cities they are holed up on. About 50% of workers in the LESS effected areas of China are back to work where we are
I spend one week a month in China. Personally I’m enjoying the break. I have an office in Mexico City and Amsterdam and I’ll be working my one week a month there. I’m scheduled to go to Paris and London next week but that might even be sketchy. I’m a designer but I will tell you my financial and logistic guys are sweating more then usual. We have already warned the street and we will warn again shortly.
As far as coins go I will bid on over six figures worth of coins in the SB auction. For a fact I will take my bids down by at least one increment. I’m glad I don’t have anything I’m selling in any future auctions.
Moral of the story. Don’t eat bats that’s what chicken wings are for.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I am also concerned if our drug supply gets tight if China is disrupted too badly. US gets a lot of our drugs from China
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No vaccine will be available this year. Vaccines also don't cure anything. This fear will not last for a year or more.
My great great grandmother also died from the Spanish Flu in 1919. She was 35 and at the time was trying to ween her child since “The Grip” (contemporary term for the Spanish Flu) was rampant in the area. She was dead within a week or so.
This was a very traumatizing experience for my great grandmother, who was 7 years old when her mother died. Apparently she would avoid walking along the roads and would walk through backyards and fields to get home to avoid the sight of all of the wreaths hanging on people’s doors. People would hang a wreath on their door when a family member died to alert the body collectors to stop by.
The trauma that the Spanish Flu caused for my great grandmother caused dysfunction in the family that is still felt over 100 years later. Hopefully the coronavirus isn’t as lethal as the Spanish Flu.
If one believes that Wall St rules the roost in the US and that a high stock market is important politically then rescind the tariffs. The markets would rocket.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Country by country response is fast moving. Japan is preparing to take significant measures as reported from news feed from Japan at this moment.
Starting tomorrow no tourists from China or South Korea will be allowed entry into Japan.
The opening games of this year’s baseball season will be played in empty stadiums. Artists and performers who have scheduled e ents have been requested to postpone them until after March 15th at the earliest,
Public schools in Hokkaido where 49 cases have been identified are closed. Schools in other areas are adjusting their starting times so students who commute by train can avoid crowded commutes.
While Japan is not the authoritarian country that China is there exists a self imposed adherence to requests and regulations that is unlike what we are familiar with in the United States - a sentiment that is ironically reflected by responses on this thread.
As the news cast continues detailed instructions are being given as to how to protect against the spread of the virus in each Japanese home with for example limiting the care and contact of a family member to only one other family member for anyone with cold or flu like symptoms.
Regarding FedEx, loads are way down. I spent two weeks flying intra Asia; five days were in three cities in China from mid-January to February 6. On one leg from Osaka to Guangzhou we were completely empty,...and that was on a 777F. My last leg was to New Delhi, only 22k pounds of freight (out of China), normally it's 150k+. Now we have pilots who refuse to fly to China for obvious reasons. Once you are in 'self-quarantine' you are a leper...other countries don't want you in if you've been to China within 14 days. I'm one of them, well, was. So what happens? Trips get dropped, revised until a sequence works causing the new crew going through China to add 14 days of 'quarantine' to their life which in turn drops them from future trips if going through certain cities. It's a mess that gets revised daily. I would not want to be one of those honchos-in-charge trying to figure this out. I'm just cog in the flywheel.
I believe this virus is worse than we are being led to believe it is. They are talking like it is not a big deal and telling people to not panic but that's exactly what they don't want is for people to panic because just imagine what it would be like outside of your home if everyone did panic. Hell, I used to work at a grocery store years ago (mid 80's) stocking shelves and there was just talk about us going on strike and it was looking like we were going to one day and you should have seen what it was like in the store when everyone thought we were going on strike that one day, the store was wiped out of everything on the shelves, even stuff that took a hell of a long time to sell was gone, all of the shelves were bare!
Now that was just talk of a strike that was adverted on the day before it was to take place, now just imagine what it would be like if they really let on that this is a lot worse than what they are saying it is, there would be mass panic. I remember just about a week and a half ago that they were saying that a little over a thousand people had the virus and that there were a couple of people have died from it, well just not too long later here they are saying now that 82000 (thousand) are infected with it and over 2800 (hundred) have died from it so far. Tell me they are telling us the truth about what is really going on with this virus. Hell, I knew it was bad when they wouldn't let doctors treat patients that were first discovered with the virus and were having robots taking care of them. Now in a very short amount of time, there is almost a hundred thousand people infected, a couple of thousand dead and people dying every day from it.
Yeah, don't panic, its never good to panic, just get prepared, stocked up on food and water in your house and maybe to be there for awhile just in case.
I'll be stocking up on basics this weekend.
Like I mentioned before - start washing your hands like crazy and stop touching your face etc. May save your life or that of someone you love.
Fear and panic are not helpful. A cavalier attitude isn’t either. It’s a dangerous disease and you don’t want it. So wash and remember - no nose picking.
The nose, eyes, and mouth are the main entry points so if you touch a contaminated object such as a door knob in a public area, keep your hands away from these areas. Also, a doctor on TV suggested pushing the buttons on a public elevator using a knuckle on the back of your hand in case you reflexively touch your face with your fingers.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I'm not an expert on money. After all, I blow my disposable funds on silly round pieces of metal.
I am an expert on communicable diseases.
Don't panic. Take precautions in public places as you should be doing anyway during flu season. Don't wear a mask everywhere or stock up with 3 years of canned goods. Do wash your hands, stay away from sick people, and stay home from school or work if you're sick. Avoid all nonessential travel to China or anywhere else where the virus is being transmitted locally. Be smart about the risk and follow CDC and local health department alerts. At present there is no significant local transmission in the United States. This could change, but right now that is the situation.
I know that's boring. It's not as sexy as saying "the sky is falling" or "the media/government is lying". Sorry for that.
NAP 👍I would only add be very mindful of touching your eyes. Hand washing and not touching your eyes are huge. And if you can get n95 respirator if SHTF would not be a bad idea.
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@Mgarmy
* edited to add, face mask not shown.