A new modern key coin in two weeks, secondary market price to double?

Coin Finder · January 14, 2017 1:40PM

Well, If I have learned anything in the last 20 years of this hobby, demand can be created under the right circumstances...

Raufus · January 14, 2017 2:20PM

Raw one sold for $619 on Feebay.

Raufus · January 14, 2017 2:21PM

@Rarity said:
Thanks Raufus for the Jan 8th data.

Most welcome.

Raufus · January 14, 2017 2:22PM

@CA5MAN said:
The mint is processing returns but also processing replacements.

It's unknown whether these replacements are coins already rejected or returned.

I'm not sure but I don't think that they replace items that are not longer for sale.

Goldbully · January 14, 2017 2:30PM

@Raufus said:

@Rarity said:
Thanks Raufus for the Jan 8th data.

Most welcome.

I thought I posted the data....what did I miss??

Coinsponge · January 14, 2017 3:17PM

@Goldbully said:

@Raufus said:

@Rarity said:
Thanks Raufus for the Jan 8th data.

Most welcome.

I thought I posted the data....what did I miss??

A thank you.

drei3ree · January 15, 2017 5:00AM

The 2017 is SO bad, can't imagine that we won't have another <5200 $5...

added: That said, I'm very glad that they didn't put a young boy on the reverse!

PerryHall · January 15, 2017 7:19AM

@CA5MAN said:

@Raufus said:

@CA5MAN said:
The mint is processing returns but also processing replacements.

It's unknown whether these replacements are coins already rejected or returned.

I'm not sure but I don't think that they replace items that are not longer for sale.

I'm not sure either. One return for replacement generated an email, thanks for your order, a new order number, prices zeroed, with shipping carrier info, will know soon enough. I don't recall that happening with a straight up return.

You're replacement might be some else's return.

Goldbully · January 15, 2017 7:35AM

added: That said, I'm very glad that they didn't put a young boy on the reverse!

Really? Attempt at humor?

OPA · January 15, 2017 8:08AM

The 2017 is SO bad, can't imagine that we won't have another <5200 $5...

To each his own. Personally I like the design and may grab a few. This will be the only gold commem. issued in 2017.

Raufus · January 15, 2017 8:25AM

@CA5MAN said:

@Raufus said:

@CA5MAN said:
The mint is processing returns but also processing replacements.

It's unknown whether these replacements are coins already rejected or returned.

I'm not sure but I don't think that they replace items that are not longer for sale.

I'm not sure either. One return for replacement generated an email, thanks for your order, a new order number, prices zeroed, with shipping carrier info, will know soon enough. I don't recall that happening with a straight up return.

Please let us know. I think when a replacement is requested for an item that is off sale a refund is issued. Very interested to know what happens.

Raufus · January 15, 2017 9:13AM

Thanks!!

NeoclassicalAnalyst · January 16, 2017 4:55PM

Tomorrow's weekly mint sales report will be interesting.

PerryHall · January 16, 2017 5:07PM

@NeoclassicalAnalyst said:
Tomorrow's weekly mint sales report will be interesting.

Agree. I'm curious to see if the latest numbers for the Uncirculated National Parks gold coin dropped and by how much. I'm not optimistic that it'll dethrone the Jackie Robinson as the key date in the modern gold commemoratives. For those that don't already know it the mint updates their production numbers every Tuesday at 5:00 PM ET and they are shown on their web site usmint.gov..

OPA · January 16, 2017 5:42PM

I believe it will take another week for a more accurate reading.

Coin Finder · January 16, 2017 6:16PM

I was wrong!

Goldbully · January 16, 2017 6:57PM

Pretty nice very short term return for raw gold modern commemorative coins.........

http://www.ebay.com/itm/281944284653?_trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK:MEBIDX:IT

Coin Finder · January 17, 2017 12:56PM

I was wrong numbers are out:

5180

PerryHall · January 17, 2017 1:07PM

@thebigeng said:
I was wrong numbers are out:

5180

Only six higher than the Jackie Robinson. This time next week the NP commemorative may be the new key date in the modern gold commemorative series.

jwitten · January 17, 2017 1:22PM

Whoo hoo! I have a sealed one... should I keep it sealed? It does not qualify for first strike.

Goldbully · January 17, 2017 1:47PM

Raufus · January 17, 2017 1:59PM

Nail biter. 6. Wow. Thought would drop by more. However, even though return period closing takes time to process returns so could certainly be two more weeks till processed and figured in numbers.

Goldbully · January 17, 2017 2:10PM

@Raufus said:
Nail biter. 6. Wow. Thought would drop by more. However, even though return period closing takes time to process returns so could certainly be two more weeks till processed and figured in numbers.

6?

Capgun · January 17, 2017 2:23PM

Anyone receive a replacement coin yet?

Manorcourtman · January 17, 2017 2:28PM

@NeoclassicalAnalyst said:
Very good point. The mint could pull 2015 spouse coins at any moment now. For example, The sale number of lady bird Johnson unc. Gold is only about 1720. Also the spouse key will be known for sure soon. But the $5 key will likely change every few years.
Anyway, I see at least 100 return next week. After that price may spike but soon will level off. Bottom line, next couple of weeks may be a good time window to sell.

Where did you get your info from? Nowhere near 100 returns last 2 weeks.

Coinsponge · January 17, 2017 2:36PM

I feel like I'm watching a horse race but in slow motion. If it beats out the Jackie it will be by Teddy's nose.

Raufus · January 17, 2017 2:36PM

@Goldbully said:

@Raufus said:
Nail biter. 6. Wow. Thought would drop by more. However, even though return period closing takes time to process returns so could certainly be two more weeks till processed and figured in numbers.

6?

Perry Hall said only 6 higher than Jackie now.

PerryHall · January 17, 2017 2:37PM

@Goldbully said:

@Raufus said:
Nail biter. 6. Wow. Thought would drop by more. However, even though return period closing takes time to process returns so could certainly be two more weeks till processed and figured in numbers.

6?

Current production number for the NP is 5180 while the production number for the JR is 5174 so the difference is 6.

Coinsponge · January 17, 2017 2:41PM

Or maybe you could compare Jackie to the Lamb Fries record, in reverse.

Capgun · January 17, 2017 2:49PM

Whispers have it that the Mint typically experiences between a 10 - 20% return rate in a normal scenario. This, however is by far normal. Given that, (if it reigns true even to the point of 1.25% returns,) the NP will likely be the key.

tincup · January 17, 2017 3:35PM

I can see it now! Jackie remains key date by only two coins!!

Spkrmakr · January 17, 2017 4:10PM

@CA5MAN said:

@Coinsponge said:
I feel like I'm watching a horse race but in slow motion. If it beats out the Jackie it will be by Teddy's nose.

This was like a horse race where your horse is winning by a mile, then some spectator comes in and shoots your horse in the foot, right before the finish line.

He may still win if he can learn to run with 3 legs but the race itself is tainted and the finish line is now further away

What a great and accurate narrative! Spectator is "dead on!" What a shame! Good still, but could have been much better. I can't help but wonder if some historical writing will someday show the damage caused by "blab, blab, blab, blab, blab?" Nothing added, nothing gained!

drei3ree · January 17, 2017 4:15PM

We won't really know until the audit numbers are released. If you're gonna flip and next week the total is below Jackie, you'd better sell.

OPA · January 17, 2017 4:21PM

Wow...the clad half unc dropped by 300.

HalfStrike · January 17, 2017 4:24PM

NPS gold unc 5180
Jackie r unc 5174

OPA · January 17, 2017 4:41PM

@jwitten said:
Whoo hoo! I have a sealed one... should I keep it sealed? It does not qualify for first strike.

Keeping a sealed box makes no sense if it does not quality for FS. Open it & examine it before you decide. With the raw ones closing in on $600 .. it's a tough decision.

Below is the PCGS link for the F/S deadlines.

http://www.pcgs.com/firststrike

Coinsponge · January 17, 2017 4:48PM

@CA5MAN said:

@Coinsponge said:
I feel like I'm watching a horse race but in slow motion. If it beats out the Jackie it will be by Teddy's nose.

This was like a horse race where your horse is winning by a mile, then some spectator comes in and shoots your horse in the foot, right before the finish line.

He may still win if he can learn to run with 3 legs but the race itself is tainted and the finish line is now further away.

We are in a day where sales numbers are widely known on a weekly basis. It is going to be rare when a coin of unlimited sales beats any existing coin and if they do, it will most likely not be by much because the attraction of a key coin is always on the radar of the speculator. The exception may only be when the Mint surprises everyone with a short supply.

jwitten · January 17, 2017 5:17PM

@OPA said:

@jwitten said:
Whoo hoo! I have a sealed one... should I keep it sealed? It does not qualify for first strike.

Keeping a sealed box makes no sense if it does not quality for FS. Open it & examine it before you decide. With the raw ones closing in on $600 .. it's a tough decision.

Below is the PCGS link for the F/S deadlines.

http://www.pcgs.com/firststrike

But would a buyer rather have a raw opened or sealed box? Would they think the open one would not grade 70, so is being sold raw? With mine, there is a chance it is a 70 still.

PerryHall · January 17, 2017 5:33PM

@jwitten said:

@OPA said:

@jwitten said:
Whoo hoo! I have a sealed one... should I keep it sealed? It does not qualify for first strike.

Keeping a sealed box makes no sense if it does not quality for FS. Open it & examine it before you decide. With the raw ones closing in on $600 .. it's a tough decision.

Below is the PCGS link for the F/S deadlines.

http://www.pcgs.com/firststrike

But would a buyer rather have a raw opened or sealed box? Would they think the open one would not grade 70, so is being sold raw? With mine, there is a chance it is a 70 still.

As a buyer I would prefer an open box so I can see what I'm getting. A sealed box could just as easily have a problem coin as an MS70 coin.

Overdate · January 18, 2017 9:11AM

The 1997 Jackie was a nail-biter also, but for different reasons. When the 5174 sales total was revealed, the Mint still had about 7000 of them on hand. Someone in Congress wanted to re-open sales of the coin, and the outcome was in doubt for several weeks. Ultimately the proposal was not successful and the 7000 remaining coins were presumably melted.

Raufus · January 18, 2017 10:36AM

Never knew that!!

kiyote · January 18, 2017 1:33PM

The Boys Town Gold $5 will be the only $5 gold commem of 2017. That could really hurt its chances of being a key.

dbldie55 · January 18, 2017 2:37PM

Is a "key" determined by mintage alone?

GritsMan · January 18, 2017 2:44PM

@kiyote said:
The Boys Town Gold $5 will be the only $5 gold commem of 2017. That could really hurt its chances of being a key.

Then again, it's difficult to come up with a less popular topic, don't you think? The Generals coin certainly was right up there for undesirability, but this one may top it. And no, I have nothing against Boys Town, but really? Who got this one through?

PerryHall · January 18, 2017 2:48PM

@dbldie55 said:
Is a "key" determined by mintage alone?

No. It is determined by the survival rate. In the case of modern commemorative coins the survival rate is close to 100% so the production numbers are a good criteria to use to determine if a coin is a key date or not.

Teamplayer1 · January 18, 2017 7:23PM

I returned 12 coins today. This should assure lowest mintage key date to series. Why so late? I was away when the coins came in and just picked them up.

PerryHall · January 18, 2017 7:36PM

@Teamplayer1 said:
I returned 12 coins today. This should assure lowest pop key date to series. Why so late? I was away when the coins came in and just picked them up.

I thought there was a 7 day return policy. Did you make the deadline?

Teamplayer1 · January 18, 2017 7:48PM

Yes, I made the deadline. Called the mint to confirm. Sent them FedX.

Raufus · January 18, 2017 7:51PM

@PerryHall said:

@Teamplayer1 said:
I returned 12 coins today. This should assure lowest pop key date to series. Why so late? I was away when the coins came in and just picked them up.

I thought there was a 7 day return policy. Did you make the deadline?

U da MON!!!!

OPA · January 18, 2017 7:54PM

@PerryHall said:

@Teamplayer1 said:
I returned 12 coins today. This should assure lowest pop key date to series. Why so late? I was away when the coins came in and just picked them up.

I thought there was a 7 day return policy. Did you make the deadline?

There is: "If for any reason within 7 days of receiving your product you are dissatisfied with your purchase, you can return the entire product for refund. Shipping charges will not be refunded for all returns."

Since he had to sign for that shipment, the receiving date is that date.

However: "To return your product, you may visit your Order History and initiate a return online or Contact Customer." Service.

A new modern key coin in two weeks, secondary market price to double?

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