@kiyote said:
Not me! I liked her out the gate. Much better than Jackie's decapitated head. It's twice the diameter of the Pan Pac $2.50 gold coin and has 1,700 less minted.
Not a valid comparison. The survival rate on modern gold commems is close to 100% while the survival rate on classic gold commems is much smaller to the point that their mintages aren't really relevant to their rarity.
@kiyote said:
Not me! I liked her out the gate. Much better than Jackie's decapitated head. It's twice the diameter of the Pan Pac $2.50 gold coin and has 1,700 less minted.
Not a valid comparison. The survival rate on modern gold commems is close to 100% while the survival rate on classic gold commems is much smaller to the point that their mintages aren't really relevant to their rarity.
What exactly happened to gold coins in the last 100 years, like the Pan PAC $2.50 coin where they didn't survive? Some circulated, sure, but these coins were $5 each at the 1915 Expo. People didn't go home and dump them into wishing wells.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
The uncirculated half dollar is a new key by an order of magnitude. It will be very interesting to see what happens to the price over the next five years.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
@kiyote said:
Not me! I liked her out the gate. Much better than Jackie's decapitated head. It's twice the diameter of the Pan Pac $2.50 gold coin and has 1,700 less minted.
Not a valid comparison. The survival rate on modern gold commems is close to 100% while the survival rate on classic gold commems is much smaller to the point that their mintages aren't really relevant to their rarity.
@kiyote said:
Not me! I liked her out the gate. Much better than Jackie's decapitated head. It's twice the diameter of the Pan Pac $2.50 gold coin and has 1,700 less minted.
Not a valid comparison. The survival rate on modern gold commems is close to 100% while the survival rate on classic gold commems is much smaller to the point that their mintages aren't really relevant to their rarity.
What exactly happened to gold coins in the last 100 years, like the Pan PAC $2.50 coin where they didn't survive? Some circulated, sure, but these coins were $5 each at the 1915 Expo. People didn't go home and dump them into wishing wells.
Many were melted during the gold recall in 1933 including $50 gold Pan-Pac commems. Also many were used in jewelry and were holed and soldered. Also many were lost from usual attrition from circulation when they were spent during the Great Depression by people trying to survive. The pop reports for classic gold commems give an indication of their survival rate.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
7 under Jackie. Likely another adjustment down next week.
Actually it's 10 under the JR----5174 for the JR versus 5164 for the NP.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I don't see much for sale on ebay. Some sealed boxes and few graded. I wonder if the distribution of the last 1500 went to more collectors than flippers. That would keep it in line to the Jackie distribution and help the coin overall.
Most of the flippers probably got in the last week. Normal sales maybe 200 per week in Dec. Than the spike of 700. My guess maybe half flippers and half collectors of the last 700. Who knows.
The flippers may be sitting on their coins in anticipation of future price increases. It was only a little more than an hour ago that the NP is became the key to the modern gold series.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
@younique said:
Whispers have it that the Mint typically experiences between a 10 - 20% return rate in a normal scenario. This, however is by far normal. Given that, (if it reigns true even to the point of 1.25% returns,) the NP will likely be the key.
@pf70collector said:
I don't see much for sale on ebay. Some sealed boxes and few graded. I wonder if the distribution of the last 1500 went to more collectors than flippers. That would keep it in line to the Jackie distribution and help the coin overall.
Most of the flippers probably got in the last week. Normal sales maybe 200 per week in Dec. Than the spike of 700. My guess maybe half flippers and half collectors of the last 700. Who knows.
That's 3984 before this thread started. It was selling about 30 per week prior.
@Raufus said:
It's amazing how much the Jackie was bringing just a few years ago. Doubt this will ever see that kind of $.
The Jackie was a stand-alone low mintage of its time. The NP has to compete with multiple Platinum Eagles and gold First Spouses with less than half its mintage. Plus smaller collector base. Different era.
Point! I also agree. I also think there was not 40% of the population sold in the last three weeks of Jackie to flippers. There just was no real interest in Jackie except for the baseball connection - during the sales period, I got one for 170 USD!
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
Really wold have been a deep key w/o this thread.
That said, we have a long history here of alerting each other to good buys such as the 08 ASE w Rev of 07 and many others . On balance it's worked well for us all.
@Raufus said:
Really wold have been a deep key w/o this thread.
That said, we have a long history here of alerting each other to good buys such as the 08 ASE w Rev of 07 and many others . On balance it's worked well for us all.
This is a different case from the 08 Rev of 07 ASEs in that the ASEs were a hit-or-miss entity that might be in a package or might not be in a package and could be picked off via ebay or other secondary sellers while in the case of the NPS gold the coins were selling slowly and not churning up much noise while also quickly coming to a halt for sales. That slumber was shattered, at least in part, with this thread and the continued bumping of it to the top by many folks.
I still think the low mintage would stand out like a sore thumb.
Many dealers would probably watch the mintage numbers toward the end of the year and dive in. MCM, Coin Vault etc. While this thread probably didn't help, I still think that would be the case.
Agree there is not much hype out there... but IMO that is an indication of how much of a 'sleeper' this one is. Surprising on how few even knew this one was out there. Those of us here on the forum are only a small portion of the potential market out there. Watch what happens if the cable promoters (who may have overlooked this opportunity) wake up and decide to promote this.
This was in my last Coin World already (although at that time it was still greater then the Jackie commem) Does being #1 or #2 by less than 100 coins really make a difference in value?
Collector and Researcher of Liberty Head Nickels. ANA LM-6053
@tincup said:
Agree there is not much hype out there... but IMO that is an indication of how much of a 'sleeper' this one is. Surprising on how few even knew this one was out there. Those of us here on the forum are only a small portion of the potential market out there. Watch what happens if the cable promoters (who may have overlooked this opportunity) wake up and decide to promote this.
Cable promoters like stuff with quantity usually. Doubt they will find enough quantity with these.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Comments
5164
Woohooo!
Ten coin difference, maybe they adjust next week.
What exactly happened to gold coins in the last 100 years, like the Pan PAC $2.50 coin where they didn't survive? Some circulated, sure, but these coins were $5 each at the 1915 Expo. People didn't go home and dump them into wishing wells.
New key by the sales figures. I guess a coin doesn't have to be ugly to be a key.
10 under Jackie. Likely another adjustment down next week.
Now it is time to sell into the strength.
The uncirculated half dollar is a new key by an order of magnitude. It will be very interesting to see what happens to the price over the next five years.
Not yet...wait for the press to catch up.
I hope the numis publications are all over this. If not I'll make them ( CW, NN) aware.
Two new Kings...Gold & Clad.
Many were melted during the gold recall in 1933 including $50 gold Pan-Pac commems. Also many were used in jewelry and were holed and soldered. Also many were lost from usual attrition from circulation when they were spent during the Great Depression by people trying to survive. The pop reports for classic gold commems give an indication of their survival rate.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Actually it's 10 under the JR----5174 for the JR versus 5164 for the NP.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Correct. My mistake. Thanks! I'll correct.
I don't see much for sale on ebay. Some sealed boxes and few graded. I wonder if the distribution of the last 1500 went to more collectors than flippers. That would keep it in line to the Jackie distribution and help the coin overall.
Mint Sales Reports
11/20/2016..........3423
11/27/2016..........3456
12/4/2016........... 3699
12/11/2016..........3984
12/18/2016..........4113
12/25/2016..........4459
1/1/2017..............5201
Most of the flippers probably got in the last week. Normal sales maybe 200 per week in Dec. Than the spike of 700. My guess maybe half flippers and half collectors of the last 700. Who knows.
Box of 20
The flippers may be sitting on their coins in anticipation of future price increases. It was only a little more than an hour ago that the NP is became the key to the modern gold series.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The report goes thru Sunday. I was thinking it would take at least another week for them to be processed and reflected in the report.
Whispers are key
Anyone have the park clad half numbers compared to all other clad half numbers?
Watch the NGC and PCGS populations.
Those last 740 coins from final week should be showing up soon.................
That's 3984 before this thread started. It was selling about 30 per week prior.
I have notified both CW and NN.
Yeah right!
The NP is a nice looking design. I hope this means we can finally put that UGLY Jackie out to pasture!
It's amazing how much the Jackie was bringing just a few years ago. Doubt this will ever see that kind of $.
Coin World editor was not aware that it had broken Jackie record. Now he is. He emailed me back.
The Jackie was a stand-alone low mintage of its time. The NP has to compete with multiple Platinum Eagles and gold First Spouses with less than half its mintage. Plus smaller collector base. Different era.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Great point Overdate!
Point! I also agree. I also think there was not 40% of the population sold in the last three weeks of Jackie to flippers. There just was no real interest in Jackie except for the baseball connection - during the sales period, I got one for 170 USD!
Well, just Love coins, period.
That said, this post was frustrating for some, a boon for others. I know a lot of us knew about the situation but chose not to say anything.
Really wold have been a deep key w/o this thread.
That said, we have a long history here of alerting each other to good buys such as the 08 ASE w Rev of 07 and many others . On balance it's worked well for us all.
This is a different case from the 08 Rev of 07 ASEs in that the ASEs were a hit-or-miss entity that might be in a package or might not be in a package and could be picked off via ebay or other secondary sellers while in the case of the NPS gold the coins were selling slowly and not churning up much noise while also quickly coming to a halt for sales. That slumber was shattered, at least in part, with this thread and the continued bumping of it to the top by many folks.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
As of January 26, 2017
Eight more Non FS 70's
84.3% of the PCGS pops are 70's
LOW FS pops for a key!
I still think the low mintage would stand out like a sore thumb.
Many dealers would probably watch the mintage numbers toward the end of the year and dive in. MCM, Coin Vault etc. While this thread probably didn't help, I still think that would be the case.
Box of 20
Anyone know exactly when the audited numbers are made public. Thought very late in the year.
It usually takes anywhere from 1 year to several.
Not a lot of hype but news seems to be trickling out
coinnews.net/2017/01/26/2016-nps-commemorative-gold-coin-hits-mintage-low/
I noticed the PCGS MS70's FS coins on Ebay at the $800ish level are going fast. Now there are a couple in the $1300 range listed and not sold yet.
Agree there is not much hype out there... but IMO that is an indication of how much of a 'sleeper' this one is. Surprising on how few even knew this one was out there. Those of us here on the forum are only a small portion of the potential market out there. Watch what happens if the cable promoters (who may have overlooked this opportunity) wake up and decide to promote this.
I think CW and NN will pick it up. This will substantially increase awareness.
This was in my last Coin World already (although at that time it was still greater then the Jackie commem) Does being #1 or #2 by less than 100 coins really make a difference in value?
I think so. It's a key or its not. I think it will absolutely make a difference.
Agree. Doesn't always seem to make sense, but the 'key' is the 'key'. A matter of perception, but real none the less.
Cable promoters like stuff with quantity usually. Doubt they will find enough quantity with these.
Exactly.