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A new modern key coin in two weeks, secondary market price to double?
NeoclassicalAnalyst
Posts: 341 ✭✭
16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 3,984
Mint Sale will end on 12/29 12pm et.
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
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modern comms are the one area where mintages don't always drive price. Probably not enough collectors.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
When I reported the imminent sold out of Eleanor R gold spouse proof coins a couple of years ago, many people here said the same thing. However, the coin's price has tripled in just two years.
Do you have a link to the sales report page?
Here you go
https://competition.usmint.gov/cumulative-sales-figures/
Lowest Mintage Modern Commemorative Gold Coins
2016 nps gold uncirculated 3,984, two weeks to go
1997-W Jackie Robinson $5 Gold Uncirculated 5,174. Ms 70 sold for about $2000 recently
2013-w five stars generals Uncirculated around 5,665
2001-W Capitol Visitor Center $5 Gold Uncirculated 6,761
2000-W Library of Congress $10 Bimetallic Uncirculated 7,261
2011-W Army $5 Gold Uncirculated 8,062*
2011-W Medal of Honor $5 Gold Uncirculated 8,251*
1996-W Smithsonian $5 Gold Uncirculated 9,068
1996-W Olympic Flag Bearer $5 Gold Uncirculated 9,174
1996-W Olympic Cauldron $5 Gold Uncirculated 9,210
2003-W First Flight $10 Gold Uncirculated 10,009
1995-W Olympic Stadium $5 Gold Uncirculated 10,579
2002-W Salt Lake City Olympic $5 Gold Uncirculated 10,585
*last reported sales
Not a huge downside risk at $388.
Recipient of the coveted "You Suck" award, April 2009 for cherrypicking a 1833 CBHD LM-5, and April 2022 for a 1835 LM-12, and again in Aug 2012 for picking off a 1952 FS-902.
Not a huge collector market. Recently purchased a Smithsonian pf69dcam for 350.
I'm a bit surprised that the Mark Twain MS commemorative has sold about 1,500 more than the National Park Service. I'd have guessed that the sales would be closer.
Mark Twain program does not offer the three coin proof set, which may explain the disparity.
... and probably about 90% of the buyers were flippers.
Once every couple of years is about par for the gold modern comms.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
They probably already sold 1000 more coins than there are true collectors for the Gold commem. And wasn't that 97 J. Robinson commem a 5K coin just a couple years ago???
This painfully reminds me of one of my dumbest numismatic moves ever...
I shipped back 3 Eleanor Unc the day before they cut off sales. UGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Order Summary
Order Placed: 02/28/15
Order Status: RETURNED
Order Number: USM029
Shipping To:
Method: UPS Ground Sig Adult
Eleanor Roosevelt 2014 First S
$795.00 Qty 3 Total: $2,385.00
Billing Address
Payment Methods
Items (0) Subtotal:2,385.00
Shipping & Handling:4.95
Order Total:2,389.95
Return to Order History Continue Shopping
Return Items from this Order
Sold about 300 between the 12/4 and 12/11 reports
About $4K in 70, about half that now.
12/18: Sales 4113 up from 3984 week prior. Jackie Unc 5174.
Good luck in trying to buy a PCGS MS70 F/S...Very Limited supply
True. They were $450 all over the place after issue. I, of course, didn't buy any. Wonder if there will be a sales surge before the 29th.
Concerning the OP's assertion that the NP $5 gold will become valuable, wouldn't everyone who wanted one at this point have one?
I assume that the thought is that it will fly under the radar and once the key and the articles about it in the numis. literature, etc it will increase. Just like Jackie Unc, Eleanor spouse Unc, etc.
Not everyone.
I couldn't decide -- Proof or Uncirculated? So my purchase sat on the back burner.
The Good News: Tomorrow I expect the price will decrease to $376 (down from the release price of $400).
And I might wait another week... maybe the price will drop to $364 before these go off-sale Dec 29th: https://catalog.usmint.gov/
Successful BST transactions with forum members thebigeng, SPalladino, Zoidmeister, coin22lover, coinsarefun, jwitten, CommemKing.
I have PCGS slabs for over 50 fractional gold buffalo coins from 2008 that I saved. I had purchased about $200,000 in fractional buffs, 1/10-1/2 oz and about a dozen sets in proof and unc and they were all PCGS First Strikes. Sales were not that great so I cracked everything I had left out and sent them back to the mint when I figured I'd be under water (returns were easier back then). Well, needless to say, if I had held onto those coins for 4 more months when the mint said it was a 1 year deal, I would have easily cleared $80,000 profit from the coins I cracked out. It would be nice to have purchased a Ferrari back then but live and learn I suppose.
I'd ship the tops back to PCGS but they are a reminder for me to stick with it and be in a position to do it. That and I paid for them
The question I have for you jessewvu is what did you learn from that experience?
My eyes must have deceived me at that time. I did not see any PCGS MS70 F/S available at your quoted price. Yes, numerous MS69's though. I doubt very much that there will be a surge in sales for MS70 F/S coins prior to 12/29...There aren't enough PCGS graded to start a "surge." (per pop report)
Aw, these NPS coins are all dogs. I urge all of you to crack them out and return them to the Mint while you still can. Your descendants will laugh at you for making such rash purchases, and besides, Trump's team plans to log, dam, and strip mine our National Parks anyway, so what will there to remember?
Here they were on Ebay for $498. Shortly after release they were in the $450 range.
ebay.com/itm/2016-W-US-Gold-5-National-Park-Service-Commemorative-BU-PCGS-MS70-First-Strike-/371632564532
So painful re: the $200,K in buffs!!!!
The below is from July 2008 from First Coin Source...
2008w Buffalos are here!!! I can now solidify and confirm the 69 pricing and PCGS 70 pricing (NGC 70 pricing available upon request). Here are the pricing for the sets and singles:
New 2008-W Buffalos…
2008-W 4 Piece Set Proof Buffalo PCGS PR69 DCAM First Strike – $2275
2008-W $50 Proof Buffalo PCGS PR69 DCAM First Strike – $1225
2008-W $25 Proof Buffalo PCGS PR69 DCAM First Strike - $640
2008-W $10 Proof Buffalo PCGS PR69 DCAM First Strike - $340
2008-W $5 Proof Buffalo PCGS PR69 DCAM First Strike - $175
2008-W 4 Piece Set Proof Buffalo PCGS PR70 DCAM First Strike – $3450
2008-W $50 Proof Buffalo PCGS PR70 DCAM First Strike – $1875
2008-W $25 Proof Buffalo PCGS PR70 DCAM First Strike - $950
2008-W $10 Proof Buffalo PCGS PR70 DCAM First Strike - $550
2008-W $5 Proof Buffalo PCGS PR70 DCAM First Strike - $325
2008-W 4 Piece Set Burnished Uncirculated Buffalo PCGS MS69 First Strike - $1995
2008-W $50 Burnished Uncirculated Buffalo PCGS MS69 First Strike - $1075
2008-W $25 Burnished Uncirculated Buffalo PCGS MS69 First Strike - $550
2008-W $10 Burnished Uncirculated Buffalo PCGS MS69 First Strike - $299
2008-W $5 Burnished Uncirculated Buffalo PCGS MS69 First Strike - $150
2008-W 4 Piece Set Burnished Uncirculated Buffalo PCGS MS70 First Strike - $3050
2008-W $50 Burnished Uncirculated Buffalo PCGS MS70 First Strike - $1700
2008-W $25 Burnished Uncirculated Buffalo PCGS MS70 First Strike - $875
2008-W $10 Burnished Uncirculated Buffalo PCGS MS70 First Strike - $475
2008-W $5 Burnished Uncirculated Buffalo PCGS MS70 First Strike - $295
I remember telling Rachel no thanks, I'm buying mostly graded plats. UGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I think that the $50s in 70FS now bring around $6500+.
Shortly before the buffs went off sale, based primarily on comments on this forum, I did thankfully buy about $40K in 2008 W Gold Buffs from the Mint. I got a lot of 70s but not FS of course. Unfortunately I sold about half early. I still made a lot but not nearly as much as if I'd have held them. I sold some 2008 AGE Unc sets far too cheap as well. Fortunately, I did keep about half of the buffs. Possibly my best numismatic move ever.
I still have one 4 coin proof and one 4 coin unc set in the sealed mint shipping boxes after 8 years. Can't be too many of them around.
Shoulda, coulda, woulda.... we all have those stories no doubt...
Of course, I think that the most that I've seen forum members score on moderns was with the 2008 ASE w/07 Rev as some members had tons of them and sold for a massive profit given the low cost from the Mint. I mostly missed that party.
The unc. 1997 Jackie Robinson gold is worth about 20% of what it was bringing a few years ago. Two PCGS MS69's recently sold on eBay for $970 and $731 in true auctions.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
It's certainly dropped a lot. ATS 70s were bringing around $4000-$4500 a few years back as I recall. They've dropped abut 50-60% since I think. Have not followed 69s. If current prices are 80% down than they were around same level as 70s?
They've dropped more than CVS and LOC . I've not understood this. Still the key .
Still nice buy if from the Mint. I bought mine graded. Sure have gotten killed - though not definitively lost till u sell .
I long for the good old days of 2004-08, where you could seemingly buy anything from the mint and rapidly double your money to spend on "real coins."
Come to think of it, even the reverse proof president dollars a few years back were found money.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
Darn...I missed that one...bummer
At the height of the market, some dealers were paying $4K for raw or MS69 uncirculated Jackie Robinson gold commems. Not sure what the 70's were going for.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Wow. Didn't know that. Wish I'd have sold then!
One reason Jackie Robinson became so expensive (I'll guess) is the popularity of baseball with collectors. Not just a coin for coin collectors.
I think it was mainly collectors that drove the price up. For a long while the unc. Jackie was the lowest mintage modern commem. Baseball fans could (and still can) obtain the legacy set for far less money - the set includes a proof Jackie Robinson gold coin, along with a special issue baseball card, in an attractive wooden box.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Have not done a serious study of it, but it appears that Jackie was the "last man standing" among modern gold unc commems, after the fall of FDR, Smithsonian, etc... It makes me think a) the real collector base for these is minuscule and b) that it's probably been dealers that have kept the prices up until they decided to just liquidate. The interesting question to me is "Has the collector base actually shrunk on these since the recession, and if so, how much?" Looking at sales of the NPS coin before people starting speculating that it might be the new low mintage king, am guessing there can't be many more than 2000 or so people who actually collect these as a series.
I think you just nailed it.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
The CVS Unc still commands a premium though it seems that it's be hit about as hard a the Jackie Unc.
The LOC Bi-Metallic Unc still does quite well though it's not just gold and it's not $5.
One wonders even if the Parks Unc comes in as the new key how long that will last. It looks like there are strong contenders for low interest in the 2017 gold commem. lineup.
If the Parks Unc is the new key I wonder how much more Jackie will drop. Man did I get killed buying my Jackie 70 years ago.
the topic "National Parks" is boring....
I look at the $5 gold commemoratives as an inexpensive way to pick up some gold. Price range near 300 much easier to afford than a double eagle. The Liberty or Indian $5 gold is 90/10 and weighs 8.24 grams. The modern $5 gold is also 90/10 and weighs 8.36 grams. Coinflation currently lists Liberty $5 gold at 274 melt. Add 4 dollars for the slight difference in weight, and you are at 278 for the modern $5 gold. I purchased on Ebay last week, a PCGS graded PF69DCAM 1988-W Olympic $5 gold for 295 free shipping. It was a true auction, and several others went for less than 300 on the same evening. That puts me in this coin for less than 20 dollars over actual melt, AND it's a beautiful coin. IMO, an opportunity that probably won't last long.
But Teddy Roosevelt is VERY interesting to lots of folks (like me).
Successful BST transactions with forum members thebigeng, SPalladino, Zoidmeister, coin22lover, coinsarefun, jwitten, CommemKing.
Yes, Teddy was for sure interesting, but really? People collect these because of the President on them?
As they say, to each his own!
bob
Actually, compared to the Lions Club, I think both of this year's commems are quite interesting and attractive. This makes me think the NPS gold unc could hold some value as a new key--even if some mintage swings in below it. I also want to add that I think one reason the NPS sales have been so low is that people were just overstretched by the combo of Mark Twain and the 1916 anniversary coins. I don't know that that particular combination of events is likely anytime soon.
Great observation Grits. I couldn't figure a reason why the NPS unc was coming in so low. Not a bad looking coin and the Parks are popular. Your theory makes sense.
If Congress authorized 100k of the National Parks $5 gold to be minted, did they mint that many? What will be of the remaining unsold examples?
It doesn't mean that 100k were minted, but whatever the excess mintage is should be melted after the cutoff for sales.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Don't forget the $5 gold in the NPS 3-Coin Proof Set.
14,283 sales as of 12/18/2016. And another 4500+ stand-alone Proofs.
Does that mean the Uncirculated gold will be a key commem? Or not? Wish I knew for sure. But right now, I'm thinking it won't be a key.
Anyway, congrats to bolivarshagnasty. I like your strategy.
Successful BST transactions with forum members thebigeng, SPalladino, Zoidmeister, coin22lover, coinsarefun, jwitten, CommemKing.
Yes, it's the Unc which may end up key. Y do u C this as unlikely?
Partly gut feel.
But mostly I can't buy now... spent way too much this Xmas. So, as bolivarshagnasty suggests, I'm hoping to get one later on-the-cheap at auction.
Successful BST transactions with forum members thebigeng, SPalladino, Zoidmeister, coin22lover, coinsarefun, jwitten, CommemKing.
Bingo! I've bought several modern $5 gold commems below spot using eBay Bucks promotions. My favorite is the well-designed 1987 Constitution commem.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
