Home U.S. Coin Forum
Options

A new modern key coin in two weeks, secondary market price to double?

2456714

Comments

  • bolivarshagnastybolivarshagnasty Posts: 7,352 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Bingo! I've bought several modern $5 gold commems below spot using eBay Bucks promotions. My favorite is the well-designed 1987 Constitution commem.

    I have bought several during the ebucks promotional periods as well.

    As far as the ability to sell, have not owned these before so I have no prior experience. I'm basically in for an eventual run up in gold after Trump nukes someone and would sell then. LOL

  • ManorcourtmanManorcourtman Posts: 8,175 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If this thread had not been started it would probably have came in below the JR figures. But since it remains on the 1st page you can bet sales will JUMP the last week!! If you doubt that check out how many views it has now......over 1,700!!! I bet more than a couple of the viewers will buy more than one or two.........

  • callawayc7callawayc7 Posts: 303 ✭✭✭
    edited December 26, 2016 6:43PM

    @Manorcourtman said:
    If this thread had not been started it would probably have came in below the JR figures. But since it remains on the 1st page you can bet sales will JUMP the last week!! If you doubt that check out how many views it has now......over 1,700!!! I bet more than a couple of the viewers will buy more than one or two.........

    I agree. Maybe OP has a stash of JR somewhere and didn't want the National Parks to be the new key. LOL!
    FYI, I didn't buy any and don't plan on buying any because even at below 5,000 coins, that's still about double the supply vs collector demand imho.

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @COCollector said:

    @Raufus said:

    @COCollector said:

    @NeoclassicalAnalyst said:
    16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 3,984
    Mint Sale will end on 12/29 12pm et.

    Don't forget the $5 gold in the NPS 3-Coin Proof Set.

    14,283 sales as of 12/18/2016. And another 4500+ stand-alone Proofs.

    Does that mean the Uncirculated gold will be a key commem? Or not? Wish I knew for sure. But right now, I'm thinking it won't be a key.

    Anyway, congrats to bolivarshagnasty. I like your strategy.

    Yes, it's the Unc which may end up key. Y do u C this as unlikely?

    Partly gut feel.

    But mostly I can't buy now... spent way too much this Xmas. So, as bolivarshagnasty suggests, I'm hoping to get one later on-the-cheap at auction.

    We'll know soon enough if it's the new key.

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Manorcourtman said:
    If this thread had not been started it would probably have came in below the JR figures. But since it remains on the 1st page you can bet sales will JUMP the last week!! If you doubt that check out how many views it has now......over 1,700!!! I bet more than a couple of the viewers will buy more than one or two.........

    Great point. I was debating whether to reply to anything here until after the 29th. Would be nice to see it move off of page 1 or even further down. I'll lay low on any replies till the 29th.

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • COCollectorCOCollector Posts: 1,346 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 27, 2016 3:38PM

    @CA5MAN said:
    So it's a great idea to buy the lowest mintages?

    Is this information posted anywhere. A weekly report would be nice.

    Without that a person would have to be a real good guesser about such things.

    Mintage is just one factor. Actual sales -- coins that actually leave the Mint -- are of greater interest to me.

    The USMint updates their sales reports every week: https://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/index83e3.html?action=coin_production

    But low sales isn't a guarantee for future appreciation. Demand for the coin is also a crucial factor.

    For example, if no one besides a handful of hardcore collectors wants a particular gold coin, prices will likely languish somewhere between issue price and melt value.

    The problem is, can you predict the future demand for a coin? And how does that demand compare with the final sales total for that coin?

    Successful BST transactions with forum members thebigeng, SPalladino, Zoidmeister, coin22lover, coinsarefun, jwitten, CommemKing.

  • SpkrmakrSpkrmakr Posts: 107 ✭✭✭

    I have to say, that lead posts of this nature can have negative effects on a number of investors! In the military of past, we used to say that "loose lips sink ships!" This seemingly insignificant post about a modern mint product that has been available for purchase for nearly a year, has attracted over 2k in views and over 50-responses. In the last week another 346 unc coins were purchased. Personally, I look at investment opportunities as things to keep my mouth "shut" about until the door closes, not blab the opportunity to the world to further dilute the mix. Even if collector interest is not high at this time does not foretell interest in generations to come. A true key, is just that! Sorry that this post was ever made!

    Spkrmakr
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 27, 2016 4:07PM

    For what it's worth, how about letting this thread move on down until after noon on the 29th? Every post just keeps in on page 1 and further erodes the chances of a key - which is likely already shot.

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,735 ✭✭✭
    edited December 27, 2016 6:21PM

    @Spkrmakr said:
    I have to say, that lead posts of this nature can have negative effects on a number of investors! In the military of past, we used to say that "loose lips sink ships!" This seemingly insignificant post about a modern mint product that has been available for purchase for nearly a year, has attracted over 2k in views and over 50-responses. In the last week another 346 unc coins were purchased. Personally, I look at investment opportunities as things to keep my mouth "shut" about until the door closes, not blab the opportunity to the world to further dilute the mix. Even if collector interest is not high at this time does not foretell interest in generations to come. A true key, is just that! Sorry that this post was ever made!

    I was watching the mintage on these for a few months and chose not to post about it. I will buy one uncirculated tonight and see what happens anyway. I remember the generals gold ms which has a similar low mintage close to the Jackie and it took off for a while and than faded away.

    There is also the chance they stopped minting these after 5K. So not waiting for the last day of sales. Can always hope.

    I got lucky with the Eleanor gold MS, I bought one on the last day before they sold out.

  • ernie11ernie11 Posts: 1,982 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm on a very limited budget these days so I was really on the fence about buying this one, but ultimately decided not to, I hope those buying do well by it.

    The thing that also dampened my enthusiasm for purchasing a low-mintage modern commem like this is the fact that there are scads of First Lady gold coins with much lower mintages than this.

  • drei3reedrei3ree Posts: 3,430 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 28, 2016 6:32AM

    @ernie11 said:
    I'm on a very limited budget these days so I was really on the fence about buying this one, but ultimately decided not to, I hope those buying do well by it.

    The thing that also dampened my enthusiasm for purchasing a low-mintage modern commem like this is the fact that there are scads of First Lady gold coins with much lower mintages than this.

    +1 First Lady gold coins I believe these are the real hidden gems of the future!

  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,157 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Oops . . . they just went off sale.

    Can we post here now?

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • CoinlearnerCoinlearner Posts: 2,498 ✭✭✭✭

    The site was very busy. I could not order anything. Just as well ,was on the fence about it anyway. Looks like a lot tried to order stuff. Will be interesting to see how much the mintage shot up in the past days.. :)

  • ManorcourtmanManorcourtman Posts: 8,175 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Not sure why the site was busy. Did anything besides the commems go off sale?

  • Insider2Insider2 Posts: 14,452 ✭✭✭✭✭

    IMO, the modern commemorative gold series will be a winner in the future. Most are low mintage yet get kicked around at prices close to melt. Gold will go up and one day collectors will scramble to get these coins as a set. That is a win, win to me. All this will happen sooner when this series gets hyped on TV and the supply dries up quickly. All it will take is one major HSN supplier for this to happen. Who knows, one may be buying them up around melt right now.

  • CoinlearnerCoinlearner Posts: 2,498 ✭✭✭✭

    Logged in and out just fine. Check out just kept loading,without finalizing order. Tried 3X,in 45 minutes. Plenty of other opportunities around. Will just move along :)

  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    edited December 29, 2016 12:32PM

    It wouldn't surprise me if the NPS gold unc ends up with a higher mintage than the Mark Twain. We will know in a week if it happens.

  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,157 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @HalfStrike said:
    It wouldn't surprise me if the NPS gold unc ends up with a higher mintage than the Mark Twain. We will know in a week if it happens.

    If it does happen there might be quite a few returns, reducing the final net mintage.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭

    It could be over 6000 next week.

  • DCWDCW Posts: 7,609 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Personally, I cant stand the never ending "new key" nonsense. It's like every new issue that is unpopular becomes the "toast of the town" for a brief, fleeting moment. Until the next tacky modern design comes along, fails to sell well, and we repeat conjecture on whether it is the new key.
    Andy Warhol was right about the future...every coin will be famous for 15 minutes.
    Good luck to all who enjoy collecting this way!

    Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
    "Coin collecting for outcasts..."

  • SpkrmakrSpkrmakr Posts: 107 ✭✭✭

    Everyone has an opinion. As P.T. Barnum said, "there is a fool born every minute."

    Spkrmakr
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,735 ✭✭✭

    I will always go after a key if there is a chance it will become one. Jackie held on as the key for quite a while and still may hold on. For $90 over spot I will give a shot. Eleanor seems to be doing well for now.

  • DCWDCW Posts: 7,609 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pf70collector said:
    I will always go after a key if there is a chance it will become one. Jackie held on as the key for quite a while and still may hold on. For $90 over spot I will give a shot. Eleanor seems to be doing well for now.

    I agree it is worth the risk, financially speaking. It's just a little silly to me when collectors act like the "key" to their whole series is the coin that people like the least.

    A true "key," like another member previously stated, should be in demand for what it is. By accident or rising precious metal prices the mintage may be affected, but that mintage shouldn't determine why we should now covet the issue.

    The first spouses are an example of such nonense. Terrible, arcade token like designs on pure gold planchets. Not many collectors buy them because of their cost and complete lack of artistry.
    Are we truly to believe that in the future they will be celebrated for their low mintages?

    I guess time will tell, but I wouldn't want my money tied up in them waiting to find out.

    Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
    "Coin collecting for outcasts..."

  • U1chicagoU1chicago Posts: 6,503 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The perfect key dates are the ones that are both low mintage and have a great design. There are few that fit that criteria, but the 2008 proof platinum coins and the 2015 1 oz proof platinum are both good examples. One could add in the 2008 gold buffalo coins but those have the same design as the rest of the 2006-2016 coins (the fractionals are a different size so those can somewhat count).

  • jwittenjwitten Posts: 5,231 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I went ahead and bought 3,000 of these, which is probably why they took them off sell. There, now yall can stop thinking about buying one, cause it won't be a key anymore :)

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭

    Never take investment advice from a collector... ever...

    keceph `anah
  • GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 17,907 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 29, 2016 3:24PM

    @jwitten said:
    I went ahead and bought 3,000 of these, which is probably why they took them off sell. There, now yall can stop thinking about buying one, cause it won't be a key anymore :)

    Are they shipping via common carrier?

  • jwittenjwitten Posts: 5,231 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Goldbully said:

    @jwitten said:
    I went ahead and bought 3,000 of these, which is probably why they took them off sell. There, now yall can stop thinking about buying one, cause it won't be a key anymore :)

    Are they shipping via common carrier?

    Registered mail, shipped via rail cars, just like Ft. Knox ;)

  • GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 17,907 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jwitten said:

    @Goldbully said:

    @jwitten said:
    I went ahead and bought 3,000 of these, which is probably why they took them off sell. There, now yall can stop thinking about buying one, cause it won't be a key anymore :)

    Are they shipping via common carrier?

    Registered mail, shipped via rail cars, just like Ft. Knox ;)

  • jwittenjwitten Posts: 5,231 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Here's my Dad hitting a ball towards the vault after we picked up our coins

  • Oh....... if it were just so easy.

    Regardless of whether the unc. NPS comes in at or below the magic JR number it is unlikely to be as much of a winner as JR.

    The last 500-1,000 NPS coins sold went mostly to speculators who will quickly have them TPG'd.

    Ebay by mid Feb. will be awash with NGC and PCGS MS70 examples announcing the new king.

    High BIN prices with Best Offers accepted.

    Those who are nimble and accept the Best Offers may make some money but the clock is ticking down on all the commemorative $5 gold.

    How many real collectors??

    Just look at the mintage numbers..................A slow motion version of the Gold First Spouse coins.

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,141 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The gold unc may end up not being a key, but the unc clad half most definitely will be by a wide margin . :)

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • The proof may be a winner , everyone is talking about buying the unc . The proof could end up the low mintage key .

    Viet Nam Vet 66/67.
    Retired Coin Shop Owner .
    Still Collecting
    Love my Grandkids and my German Shepherd Dogs . Kind of like my wifes Cat.
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 29, 2016 9:04PM

    @TRADECOIN said:
    The proof may be a winner , everyone is talking about buying the unc . The proof could end up the low mintage key .

    Wow. That could absolutely happen!! Wouldn't that be ironic? It sure will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

    Jackie Unc mintage is 5174. Parks Unc sales as of Dec. 25 report is 4459. Would have to have sold 715 from Dec. 25 thru noon today.

    This thread sure had a LOT of views in that time!!

    Sales for prior weeks going back to Nov. 27 were: 346, 129, 285, 243

    We'll know soon enough.

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,141 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TRADECOIN said:
    The proof may be a winner , everyone is talking about buying the unc . The proof could end up the low mintage key .

    Not likely....The $5 proof was part of a 3 coin proof set, with over 14k sets sold. Add that to the approx 5k single proofs sold, which would make it a far cry from a low ball.

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 29, 2016 8:55PM

    @OPA said:

    @TRADECOIN said:
    The proof may be a winner , everyone is talking about buying the unc . The proof could end up the low mintage key .

    Not likely....The $5 proof was part of a 3 coin proof set, with over 14k sets sold. Add that to the approx 5k single proofs sold, which would make it a far cry from a low ball.

    Forgot about that! Correct.

    14456 of those sets sold!

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • COCollectorCOCollector Posts: 1,346 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 29, 2016 10:11PM

    For REALLY low-mintage gold, take a look at the Royal Canadian Mint. Prices are high and sell-outs are common.

    For example, the RCM produced only 250 of these 2017 coins: 1 oz. Pure Gold Coin – 150 Years of Passion: The Maple Leaf

    Successful BST transactions with forum members thebigeng, SPalladino, Zoidmeister, coin22lover, coinsarefun, jwitten, CommemKing.

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @COCollector said:
    For REALLY low-mintage gold, take a look at the Royal Canadian Mint. Prices are high and sell-outs are common.

    For example, the RCM produced only 250 of these 2017 coins: 1 oz. Pure Gold Coin – 150 Years of Passion: The Maple Leaf

    That and many other RCM issues are very beautiful and low mintage.

    I've messed with RCM stuff for about 10 years. If you want to buy for the sheer beauty and just to collect it's fine. If you hope to have some appreciation and or to flip it's a much harder game.

    Just look at the premium to spot on that coin - and folks think that the U.S. Mint sells high relative to spot!

    They have a lot of low mintage issues. However, it's a much smaller country and with smaller damand and very high premiums to spot.

    Most of the issues that I thought would do well when I started messing with the RCM stuff did not. Some that I blew off such as the first Superman Gold issues have done extremely well. Overall, it's a hard game to play I think if you hope for appreciation.

    Same for the Perth Mint. Some such as the Red Backed Spider from the Deadly and Dangerous series have done incredibly well. But, hard to predict and high premium to spot.

    Just my 0.02 of course.

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • COCollectorCOCollector Posts: 1,346 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Raufus, well said. Completely agree.

    BTW, on a lark I recently bought a 1oz silver Superman. Surprised that I really like it! So, I'm not surprised to hear the gold is doing extremely well.

    Successful BST transactions with forum members thebigeng, SPalladino, Zoidmeister, coin22lover, coinsarefun, jwitten, CommemKing.

  • SpkrmakrSpkrmakr Posts: 107 ✭✭✭

    When might we expect final numbers? I ordered a single MS. Opted for "budget shipping." Arrived in 72-hours. Absolute solid 70. Nice piece.

    Spkrmakr
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,387 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Should have the next numbers on Wednesday when Mint posts the weekly sales totals. (I think they usually do that on Tuesday, but this last one was on Wednesday... probably due to holidays). I suspect numbers will be close to Jackie R. number.... but who knows?? Could miss by a mile....

    It was worth a gamble.

    ----- kj
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Numbers come out on Tuesdays by 5 pm Eastern.

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • Coin FinderCoin Finder Posts: 7,392 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Will the First Strike Slabs be worth a premium over the regular slabs in the case?

  • GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 17,907 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @thebigeng said:
    Will the First Strike Slabs be worth a premium over the regular slabs in the case?

    I see very little value added for First Strike on this issue.

    Now a 2008-W Gold Buffalo First Strike is a whole different animal.

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2016 8:32PM

    @Goldbully said:

    @thebigeng said:
    Will the First Strike Slabs be worth a premium over the regular slabs in the case?

    I see very little value added for First Strike on this issue.

    Now a 2008-W Gold Buffalo First Strike is a whole different animal.

    Hi bully-

    Just curious, why do you say that? The FS always seem to bring a premium.

    I think that the FS census is quite low on these as well.

    Best, R

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Two of the UNCs that I ordered arrived today.

    The packaging of one of them was torn up and broken up. I thought that the coin might be missing. I was going to keep them all sealed but I had to be sure that the coin was in this one. It was - loose with the capsule in two pieces. How does this happen???!! Ugh!!

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,141 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Goldbully said:

    @thebigeng said:
    Will the First Strike Slabs be worth a premium over the regular slabs in the case?

    I see very little value added for First Strike on this issue.

    Now a 2008-W Gold Buffalo First Strike is a whole different animal.

    I disagree. Very low pop for the PCGS FS pop. And it's a moot issue...FS deadline has long passed.
    598547 2016-W $5 100th Anniv. Nat'l Parks First Strike MS (18-69) (100-MS70) 118 total
    598549 2016-W $5 100th Anniv. Nat'l Parks First Strike MS (15-69's) ( 52-70's) 67 total

    http://www.pcgs.com/pop/detail.aspx?c=1647

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2016 9:25PM

    I wonder whether there will be much of a difference in the value of the two different FS labels. This of course assumes that it's the key which is a HUGE assumption!

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I chased the last "key" clad UNC. Don't remember what is was. Army something? Anyway, do the clad unc keys do much appreciation wise? I don't think that the current one has done much. Of course, not being able to recall exactly what one it is shows how much I follow them.

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,141 ✭✭✭✭✭

    FYI...the most recent completed $5 F/S PCGS MS70 sold for $895.00 on 12/30..I did not find any PCGS MS69 F/S currently available on eBay.

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file