Ride the hype. Get in, get your profits, and go.
Else, sit on them and hope it is more than hype.
I just don't see that many COLLECTORS for many of these...which is why they get the low mintages....then, it is all up to the HYPE (like what I see a lot of in this thread).
The way some are pushing it, reminds me on the speared bison.....
@Bochiman said:
Ride the hype. Get in, get your profits, and go.
Else, sit on them and hope it is more than hype.
I just don't see that many COLLECTORS for many of these...which is why they get the low mintages....then, it is all up to the HYPE (like what I see a lot of in this thread).
The way some are pushing it, reminds me on the speared bison.....
@Overdate said:
Just to keep things in perspective, some of the 2014 First Spouse coins have combined unc. and proof mintages of around 4000 to 4200. This is one-sixth of the combined mintage of the NP gold. Even with a much smaller collector base, I consider the lowest-mintage Spouses (especially in proof) to be better values than the unc. NP.
Just speculation because of a new box on the Mint's website: "Farewell to the First Spouse Program--Shop our collection of products." ...or they could last another two years.
@drei3ree said:
Just speculation because of a new box on the Mint's website: "Farewell to the First Spouse Program--Shop our collection of products." ...or they could last another two years.
With the 2015 Spouses still on sale, I don't expect the 2016s to disappear anytime soon. The 2014 Spouses remained on the Mint's website until their inventory was completely sold out.
@drei3ree said:
Just speculation because of a new box on the Mint's website: "Farewell to the First Spouse Program--Shop our collection of products." ...or they could last another two years.
With the 2015 Spouses still on sale, I don't expect the 2016s to disappear anytime soon. The 2014 Spouses remained on the Mint's website until their inventory was completely sold out.
The mint likely will remove Bess Truman around March.
Btw, quite a few bulk buy and bulk return on b ford and p Nixon uncirculated over the past two months. Maybe they know something we don't know?
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
@NeoclassicalAnalyst said:
Btw, quite a few bulk buy and bulk return on b ford and p Nixon uncirculated over the past two months. Maybe they know something we don't know?
Historically, commem demand has been at least 3 to 1 in favor of proofs over uncirculated specimens. I expect that ratio to be maintained in the aftermarket for First Spouse coins. The 2014 Eleanor Roosevelt currently has about a $500 premium for proofs even though the mintage is 500 higher. The uncircs are fewer in number for a reason - in general they have much less eye appeal than the proofs.
It's after 5:00 and they're still showing Jan 29 production numbers.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Dropped by ten more this week. The NP Unc is now 24 fewer than the Jackie Robinson.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
It's amazing to me that these aren't bringing more and how little publicity that they have received. I know that NN and CW are aware of their new key status. Beating a record held since 1997 is no small deal. Hopefully they'll keep moving up.
It's especially hard to understand why that coin in the lower pop of the two FS labels brought less than other recent non FS coins.
It's amazing to me that some have such weak hands. Selling a FS 70 so early in the game.......unimaginable. As for lack of recognition, we live in an instant gratification world now. If it isn't instantly a hit, something must be wrong. Patience grasshopper.
How is that a surprise? Flippers have had their day on this and not likely to buy on the secondary market. There never was a large cadre of collectors and they had their chance to get their own already. Low demand, poor dispersion leads to price depression.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
What are the raw ones with the original packaging selling for now?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Five MS70's available at $759 eBay BIN, non-FS, looks like price not holding up that much. I think people are spending time tweeting and on Facebook, more than searching on eBay for modern coins.
Even though only 5,150 were minted, there are only about 115 registry sets at PCGS for the gold commemorative series. Considering non-registry collectors, NGC, etc, it still could be possible there are might only be a one or two thousand collectors. The rest flippers, or some long term dealer inventory holdings.
This is now a race to the bottom again, like the gold Kennedy's, and centennial golds. Low mintage is not the only criteria; demand is critical. This is also still more than double the mintage of many first spouse golds, and they are hated and low price, too.
@goldminers I see your point. If gold rises a fair amount in the coming years and there is not a lower mintage one, they may go up in price. As I recall the Jackie took awhile to hit its peak and there were a couple of gold run ups between 1997 and 2011
Yes, I agree these will react favorably to a gold price spike for sure. That said, I just sold my spares, and it was a net "double" like the post originally said. Needed some dry powder for the next gold one which could be even lower mintage.
@Goldminers said:
Five MS70's available at $759 eBay BIN, non-FS, looks like price not holding up that much. I think people are spending time tweeting and on Facebook, more than searching on eBay for modern coins.
Even though only 5,150 were minted, there are only about 115 registry sets at PCGS for the gold commemorative series. Considering non-registry collectors, NGC, etc, it still could be possible there are might only be a one or two thousand collectors. The rest flippers, or some long term dealer inventory holdings.
This is now a race to the bottom again, like the gold Kennedy's, and centennial golds. Low mintage is not the only criteria; demand is critical. This is also still more than double the mintage of many first spouse golds, and they are hated and low price, too.
If all these factors are true then what drove the
Jackie to such heights? I don't see this coin having a ton of flippers. Maybe a few dropped in in the last few weeks but the ones before that were mostly true believers, i.e. collectors.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
1) Price is a product of supply in relation to demand.
2) Price is set on the margin.
In it's purest form this means if there is a supply of 100 items and demand for 101 the price will be whatever that 101st person is willing to pay to acquire one of the 100. Conversely if there are 100 items and demand for 99 price will reflect how low price has to go to attract a new or duplicate buyer.
Modern commemorative coins that are PM based will trade using above rules with exception that PM content will provide some protection to downside usually +/- 3% or so of spot. In a rising PM market the numismatic premium can be compressed.
At present some if not most of those last 1,700 NPS sold are working their way through TPG and will eventually come to market. It may require some time for market to digest such a large overhang .
In the end however rules #1 and #2 will prevail and determine long term price.
Five MS70's available at $759 eBay BIN, non-FS, looks like price not holding up that much. I think people are spending time tweeting and on Facebook, more than searching on eBay for modern coins.
Even though only 5,150 were minted, there are only about 115 registry sets at PCGS for the gold commemorative series. Considering non-registry collectors, NGC, etc, it still could be possible there are might only be a one or two thousand collectors. The rest flippers, or some long term dealer inventory holdings.
This is now a race to the bottom again, like the gold Kennedy's, and centennial golds. Low mintage is not the only criteria; demand is critical. This is also still more than double the mintage of many first spouse golds, and they are hated and low price, too.
One sold for $995 yesterday. $759 is a great price. Two now sold they won't last long.
I just pulled the trigger on one of these (PCGS MS70 non-FS). I had a 10% Ebay bucks offer, so it was $683.10 shipped.
Not my series, etc., but "hoard the keys." We'll see how long this one remains key.
Many serious collectors want only MS70's of modern gold coins. Many above ask why the Jackie went up a lot. My opinion is that it is related more directly to PCGS population reports. The Jackie after 20 years only has 65 PCGS MS70's available, the NPS already has 258 MS70's graded and that number is increasing.
Also only 6% of the Jackie's sent to PCGS came back MS70, but 85% of the 2016 NP pops are 70's. Yes I know some new 69's don't show up in the numbers as many ask to only holder the 70's, but clearly the Jackie is much harder to find in 70 than the NP coin, and as such I think it is still basically the key of the series.
The majority of jackies were sold as part of the 4-coin set. Only 1,611 were sold singly. A certain percentage of collectors would wish not to break up their set. That equals fewer singles available. Jackie is the real key
So, no change from last week. This might be the final number.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
@Goldminers said:
Many serious collectors want only MS70's of modern gold coins. Many above ask why the Jackie went up a lot. My opinion is that it is related more directly to PCGS population reports. The Jackie after 20 years only has 65 PCGS MS70's available, the NPS already has 258 MS70's graded and that number is increasing.
Even raw and MS69 Jackies were fetching around $4000 at one point, so the price spike was not caused by the limited number of MS70s. The low mintage compared to other $5 commems of the time helped drive the price up to unsustainable levels. Something similar happened with the 1986 uncirculated Statue of Liberty $5 gold, when the "low mintage" of 95,000 led to a speculative frenzy and drove the price to $700 for a time (over $1500 in today's dollars). It's all relative.
Comments
Sealed box goes for $675 today on eBay.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/232197174856?_trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK:MEBIDX:IT
http://offer.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBidsLogin&item=232197174856&item_hash4=8a667a25&LH_Complete=1&LH_BIN=1&_pgn=1&rc=nt&_trksid=p3750801.m370.h1613&rmvSB=true
Ride the hype. Get in, get your profits, and go.
Else, sit on them and hope it is more than hype.
I just don't see that many COLLECTORS for many of these...which is why they get the low mintages....then, it is all up to the HYPE (like what I see a lot of in this thread).
The way some are pushing it, reminds me on the speared bison.....
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
That's a whole different animal!
Three clad 69FS available for $2549.99. Git em while you can!! Great price!
ebay.com/itm/182444498323?ul_noapp=true
That guy is selling box of 20. ($127.45 each).
Oops. My mistake :-(
Well, the Ford MS Gold looks like to be the key, at 1533 with Nixon running close at 1547 if they go off sale. Unfortunately, I don't have the funds.
Box of 20
Did I miss something? What information is saying the first spouse coins are going off sale?
Just speculation because of a new box on the Mint's website: "Farewell to the First Spouse Program--Shop our collection of products." ...or they could last another two years.
Got some grades today on my last batch of UNC's. Pretty happy about them! I am guessing the pop report will see some significant increases next week!
That would have been Rowan and Martin's Laugh-in
"Is this the party to whom I am speaking?"
With the 2015 Spouses still on sale, I don't expect the 2016s to disappear anytime soon. The 2014 Spouses remained on the Mint's website until their inventory was completely sold out.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The mint likely will remove Bess Truman around March.
Btw, quite a few bulk buy and bulk return on b ford and p Nixon uncirculated over the past two months. Maybe they know something we don't know?
Historically, commem demand has been at least 3 to 1 in favor of proofs over uncirculated specimens. I expect that ratio to be maintained in the aftermarket for First Spouse coins. The 2014 Eleanor Roosevelt currently has about a $500 premium for proofs even though the mintage is 500 higher. The uncircs are fewer in number for a reason - in general they have much less eye appeal than the proofs.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
These are good looking coins! Maybe I should open my sealed box and enjoy it? haha
New numbers out soon!! Wonder if there will be any change.
They're sure waiting until the last minute to post the new numbers...
It's 17:00. Not up yet??
It's after 5:00 and they're still showing Jan 29 production numbers.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Do the Mint employees work after 5:00pm?
Must be a secret government holiday. Or maybe the Mint didn't sell anything last week.
.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Dropped by ten more this week. The NP Unc is now 24 fewer than the Jackie Robinson.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Ah, that's good news. I'd have to have to spend a lot of $$$ on a design that was just awful.
As of February 9, 2017
Yet again, One more Non FS 69 and fifteen more Non FS 70's
Just curious, but what is the difference between 598547 & 598549? They both have an identical title, yet different quantities for MS69 & MS70. thanks.
I asked that same question.
One is FS Flag label, the other is FS 'designer' label.
Oh, sorry, didn't see that reply.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/112288805012?_trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK:MEBIDX:IT&autorefresh=true
Latest eBay Auction
$910
It's amazing to me that these aren't bringing more and how little publicity that they have received. I know that NN and CW are aware of their new key status. Beating a record held since 1997 is no small deal. Hopefully they'll keep moving up.
It's especially hard to understand why that coin in the lower pop of the two FS labels brought less than other recent non FS coins.
It's amazing to me that some have such weak hands. Selling a FS 70 so early in the game.......unimaginable. As for lack of recognition, we live in an instant gratification world now. If it isn't instantly a hit, something must be wrong. Patience grasshopper.
How is that a surprise? Flippers have had their day on this and not likely to buy on the secondary market. There never was a large cadre of collectors and they had their chance to get their own already. Low demand, poor dispersion leads to price depression.
Well, just Love coins, period.
Well I don't speak for everyone only myself. It should be painfully obvious by now I'm not a dealer or a flipper.
Movin on up
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-W-PCGS-MS70-100th-Anniversary-National-Park-Parks-5-Uncirculated-Gold-Coin-/262841482327?hash=item3d3292bc57:g:kjMAAOSwjDZYkCtE
What are the raw ones with the original packaging selling for now?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
One raw just ended at $646, true auction
Here's an MS69FS that sold for $650 today.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/232215025972?_trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK:MEBIDX:IT
Five MS70's available at $759 eBay BIN, non-FS, looks like price not holding up that much. I think people are spending time tweeting and on Facebook, more than searching on eBay for modern coins.
Even though only 5,150 were minted, there are only about 115 registry sets at PCGS for the gold commemorative series. Considering non-registry collectors, NGC, etc, it still could be possible there are might only be a one or two thousand collectors. The rest flippers, or some long term dealer inventory holdings.
This is now a race to the bottom again, like the gold Kennedy's, and centennial golds. Low mintage is not the only criteria; demand is critical. This is also still more than double the mintage of many first spouse golds, and they are hated and low price, too.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
@goldminers I see your point. If gold rises a fair amount in the coming years and there is not a lower mintage one, they may go up in price. As I recall the Jackie took awhile to hit its peak and there were a couple of gold run ups between 1997 and 2011
Yes, I agree these will react favorably to a gold price spike for sure. That said, I just sold my spares, and it was a net "double" like the post originally said. Needed some dry powder for the next gold one which could be even lower mintage.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
If all these factors are true then what drove the
Jackie to such heights? I don't see this coin having a ton of flippers. Maybe a few dropped in in the last few weeks but the ones before that were mostly true believers, i.e. collectors.
Things to remember........
1) Price is a product of supply in relation to demand.
2) Price is set on the margin.
In it's purest form this means if there is a supply of 100 items and demand for 101 the price will be whatever that 101st person is willing to pay to acquire one of the 100. Conversely if there are 100 items and demand for 99 price will reflect how low price has to go to attract a new or duplicate buyer.
Modern commemorative coins that are PM based will trade using above rules with exception that PM content will provide some protection to downside usually +/- 3% or so of spot. In a rising PM market the numismatic premium can be compressed.
At present some if not most of those last 1,700 NPS sold are working their way through TPG and will eventually come to market. It may require some time for market to digest such a large overhang .
In the end however rules #1 and #2 will prevail and determine long term price.
I just pulled the trigger on one of these (PCGS MS70 non-FS). I had a 10% Ebay bucks offer, so it was $683.10 shipped.
Not my series, etc., but "hoard the keys." We'll see how long this one remains key.
Many serious collectors want only MS70's of modern gold coins. Many above ask why the Jackie went up a lot. My opinion is that it is related more directly to PCGS population reports. The Jackie after 20 years only has 65 PCGS MS70's available, the NPS already has 258 MS70's graded and that number is increasing.
Also only 6% of the Jackie's sent to PCGS came back MS70, but 85% of the 2016 NP pops are 70's. Yes I know some new 69's don't show up in the numbers as many ask to only holder the 70's, but clearly the Jackie is much harder to find in 70 than the NP coin, and as such I think it is still basically the key of the series.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
The majority of jackies were sold as part of the 4-coin set. Only 1,611 were sold singly. A certain percentage of collectors would wish not to break up their set. That equals fewer singles available. Jackie is the real key
10℅ eBay bucks. I NEVER get these offers.
5150
So, no change from last week. This might be the final number.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Even raw and MS69 Jackies were fetching around $4000 at one point, so the price spike was not caused by the limited number of MS70s. The low mintage compared to other $5 commems of the time helped drive the price up to unsustainable levels. Something similar happened with the 1986 uncirculated Statue of Liberty $5 gold, when the "low mintage" of 95,000 led to a speculative frenzy and drove the price to $700 for a time (over $1500 in today's dollars). It's all relative.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Do you see this # changing?