I don't think Canada will intervene, at least not without the US. They don't have the ships or the aircraft to get their troops there without US support. Nor do the have the logistical capacity to sustain a fighting force without US support. No offense to the Canadians on this board but Canada can't do anything militarily without US or British help.
"President Obama found his private moment of political candor caught by a live microphone on Monday as he told President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia that he would have “more flexibility” to negotiate on the delicate issue of missile defense after the November election, which Mr. Obama apparently feels confident he will win."
I think that the Crimea is the key here. If Putin pushes hard enough, he may get this critical Russian outpost under his control without upsetting the delicate balance of power in Ukraine. That may be negotiated away in the UN as we speak.
Russia had their Viet Nam in Afghanistan. The U.S. hasn't won a skirmish in battle for decades. We just call the police. I mean private contractors with guns, to do clean up ! What are we supposed to do in Crimea or Ukraine ? Follow the leader ? These political "battle lines" that are drawn are between what voters wanted, going forward and they opted out of the European Union's offering for Mother Russia. Now Ukraine doesn't want an invasion , either. Whether we trust them (Russia) or not, it's not our fight. AT ALL. It's not even a fight. It's a movement to maintain stability and civility and dictatorial controls.
It's not like COMMUNISM is going to take over, or that Sharia law is threatening society there. Hostilities exist over "super powers". And it seems super powers have a thing for dictatorship in foreign land, all in "defense" of the people's interests.
I guess it's a matter of who has a greater interest in peace, or war. But how do you see metals being dictated by these current events ? Maybe fuel costs, but not metal…. probably.
<< <i>I hope our troops are headed there too. Time put Putin in his place. I notice it not being shown much on fluff TV any more. Don't want get the working poor riled up >>
You can tell that you don't have a son or daughter in our military.
<< <i>I think that the Crimea is the key here. If Putin pushes hard enough, he may get this critical Russian outpost under his control without upsetting the delicate balance of power in Ukraine. That may be negotiated away in the UN as we speak. >>
I agree. If Russia simply occupies the Crimea or even annexes it, and does nothing else, things will settle down and Ukraine will have to accept it as a fait accompli.
However, if Russia decides to "liberate" the rest of Ukraine and shuts off the natural gas to the EU as a warning to stay out of it, all heck could break loose.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
<< <i>I hope our troops are headed there too. Time put Putin in his place. I notice it not being shown much on fluff TV any more. Don't want get the working poor riled up >>
You can tell that you don't have a son or daughter in our military. >>
Gas is a concern but I'd argue it's pretty far down Putin's priorities list right now. #1 is unfettered sea lane access to the Levant, Mediterranean, and Persian Gulf. The only way he can keep that access open is by asserting control of Crimea and Black Sea Naval port facilities in Sevastopol. As a minor secondary benefit it also means Russia can exert de facto oversight of Odessa, Ukraine's larger mainland commercial port, if they don't just decide to seize it first. One of the first acts of the recently deposed former Ukrainian president was to extend the lease of Sevastopol to the Russian Navy for 25-30 years despite popular opinion and his predecessors vehement statements to the contrary.
Crimea is Putin's gateway to the world stage. From there he can sail warships to Russia's shallow water "fueling depot" in Tartus (Syria) to drop off small arms, meddle in Iranian nuclear affairs, provide support to Libyan nationalists, etc. Where do you think all the AK-47s and bullets that shoot at our American and NATO alliance troops originate from? The Syrian chemical weapons? Iran's uncanny ability to further it's nuclear research despite decades of severe embargoes and threats of military intervention by the west?
Patton and Reagan might have been on to something.
Without Sevastopol Russia's influence over events in the area and support for those who stand counter to America's interests in the region becomes dependent on its political and financial clout. Russia becomes much less relevant unless it wants to risk sailing materiel from northern ports past the shores of every major NATO alliance country in Europe. Overland subversion is much harder to deny than foreign flagged cargo ships with mysterious cargo and manipulated bills of lading.
Russia's only other legitimate deep port option in the Black Sea is Novorossiysk, but it hasn't been built out to accommodate a naval fleet yet, it does not offer the same sheltered geography as Sevastopol, and worst of all, it's located in one of the most volatile areas in the whole of the Russian empire. Chechnya, Georgia, Abkhazia, etc, have violently opposed Russia in the near past and Russia is still rightfully worried about what extremists might do to disrupt it's interests in the area. It would be like building a pillow fort in a tiger cage and Putin knows it.
War with Russia is not advisable, but we should be doing more to support Ukraine in it's fight.
Way I see it is the real fighters will be lost on front line throwing rocks. We need to supply the Freedom fighters fast & heavily. Obama cant keep threatening and say we are not already involved. Back up the BS time.
<< <i>Russia gave Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. They want it back.
Impact on the metals markets will be minimal. Afterall, its the evil banksters that control prices, right? >>
Absolutely! Crimea was the site of the Czar's summer residence. Nikita Khrushchev gave that area back to Ukraine when he was the First Sec'y of the Communist Party. He was from Ukraine.
The US will do little or nothing and Putin knows this better than anyone. He has looked into Obama's soul!
<< <i>Gas is a concern but I'd argue it's pretty far down Putin's priorities list right now. #1 is unfettered sea lane access to the Levant, Mediterranean, and Persian Gulf. The only way he can keep that access open is by asserting control of Crimea and Black Sea Naval port facilities in Sevastopol. As a minor secondary benefit it also means Russia can exert de facto oversight of Odessa, Ukraine's larger mainland commercial port, if they don't just decide to seize it first. One of the first acts of the recently deposed former Ukrainian president was to extend the lease of Sevastopol to the Russian Navy for 25-30 years despite popular opinion and his predecessors vehement statements to the contrary.
Crimea is Putin's gateway to the world stage. From there he can sail warships to Russia's shallow water "fueling depot" in Tartus (Syria) to drop off small arms, meddle in Iranian nuclear affairs, provide support to Libyan nationalists, etc. Where do you think all the AK-47s and bullets that shoot at our American and NATO alliance troops originate from? The Syrian chemical weapons? Iran's uncanny ability to further it's nuclear research despite decades of severe embargoes and threats of military intervention by the west?
Patton and Reagan might have been on to something.
Without Sevastopol Russia's influence over events in the area and support for those who stand counter to America's interests in the region becomes dependent on its political and financial clout. Russia becomes much less relevant unless it wants to risk sailing materiel from northern ports past the shores of every major NATO alliance country in Europe. Overland subversion is much harder to deny than foreign flagged cargo ships with mysterious cargo and manipulated bills of lading.
Russia's only other legitimate deep port option in the Black Sea is Novorossiysk, but it hasn't been built out to accommodate a naval fleet yet, it does not offer the same sheltered geography as Sevastopol, and worst of all, it's located in one of the most volatile areas in the whole of the Russian empire. Chechnya, Georgia, Abkhazia, etc, have violently opposed Russia in the near past and Russia is still rightfully worried about what extremists might do to disrupt it's interests in the area. It would be like building a pillow fort in a tiger cage and Putin knows it.
War with Russia is not advisable, but we should be doing more to support Ukraine in it's fight. >>
Pete is very observant and knowledgeable. I don't pretend to know Russia's aims but it wouldn't surprise me if they stopped at control of Crimea. Now to put the shoe on the other foot, how many Americans would tolerate meddling by Russia (or any other power) in Cuba or the Yucatan or Baha Mexico or anywhere close by (since the Monroe Doctrine, we haven't really allowed that and Kennedy showed down the Russians when they attempted this 50 years ago), by setting up a huge Russian naval base? How would it look if we go in and try to stop Russia from exercising its own form of the Monroe Doctrine at its only viable port in that area? The Russians are very much land-locked and will defend this area to the death, if my feelings are correct. We wouldn't be wise to interfere here.
And another thing: where do you think all of Europe gets its natural gas from? Does anyone realistically expect the Europeans to bite the hand that feeds them (or keeps them warm) in this case? Give me a break.
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
<< <i>This invasion is exactly what gold needed. The US will do nothing but talk, Putin will move further into Ukraine, gold will go higher. >>
We'll see, so far it's a non issue ... as I type...gold is up less than 1.5% ...not much of a movement in my book. Silver up less than 1% Plat & Pall...less than .5%
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Monday is the usual day I get to talk to my Ukrainian friend after work. I'll get her thoughts on the troop involvement and see if she talked to her family.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
<< <i>Monday is the usual day I get to talk to my Ukrainian friend after work. I'll get her thoughts on the troop involvement and see if she talked to her family. >>
Hope that your friend is well. Communication disruptions were reported in the region over the weekend. Please keep us updated.
Interesting that metals and oil are rising, while the flight to safety 10 year US notes are also rising, with rates dropping.
In the pre Bernanke/Yellen/Bush/Obama world, debt instruments hated inflation. Now they just follow the DC dictated script.
Yeah, it actually is interesting. It does look like an open door for money creation - in "our time of need".
The next thing we know, the debt will hit the levels that were projected for 2025 by next year. And rates will have to remain low or the debt will absolutely explode.
On further reflection, it's going to explode anyway. Ancient Rome did the same thing when they couldn't finance their military with real money. Same thing. Same direction.
I'm firmly of the opinion that it's ALL about government finance, and that means the bond market. The other markets are just collateral damage.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>The next thing we know, the debt will hit the levels that were projected for 2025 by next year. And rates will have to remain low or the debt will absolutely explode.
On further reflection, it's going to explode anyway. Ancient Rome did the same thing when they couldn't finance their military with real money. Same thing. Same direction. >>
There's a famous principle called
Godwin's Law (aka Reductio ad Hitlerum) that applies to public policy discussions.
There should be a corollary for economics discussions about the modern American economy, for when the inevitable comparisons to Weimar, Zimbabwe, and Ancient Rome that tend to be used to support certain arguments and predictions (i.e. hyperinflation, collapse of the empire, etc)
Godwin's Law (aka Reductio ad Hitlerum) that applies to public policy discussions.
There should be a corollary for economics discussions about the modern American economy, for when the inevitable comparisons to Weimar, Zimbabwe, and Ancient Rome that tend to be used to support certain arguments and predictions (i.e. hyperinflation, collapse of the empire, etc)
<< <i>The next thing we know, the debt will hit the levels that were projected for 2025 by next year. And rates will have to remain low or the debt will absolutely explode.
On further reflection, it's going to explode anyway. Ancient Rome did the same thing when they couldn't finance their military with real money. Same thing. Same direction. >>
There's a famous principle called
Godwin's Law (aka Reductio ad Hitlerum) that applies to public policy discussions.
There should be a corollary for economics discussions about the modern American economy, for when the inevitable comparisons to Weimar, Zimbabwe, and Ancient Rome that tend to be used to support certain arguments and predictions (i.e. hyperinflation, collapse of the empire, etc) >>
Serious question, Baley. Is there any scenario of deficit spending and/or easy money policy that could create hyperinflation in the US, or are we exempt because hey, this is America?
<< <i>True US hyperinflation theoretically possible? Sure.
Probable? Not in my opinion. What do you think? >>
Thank you for responding, Baley.
My view is that even exceptional nations cannot escape natural law. Economics fall in to that category.
We have expanded the expenditure on medical care from 5% of GDP to nearly 20% since the late 1970's. Not to debate the value of that here, but much of that has not been paid for. Our jump in the national debt over the last 30 years pretty much equates to the full cost of Medicare/Medicaid, over that time.
Rather than tax the citizenry over that period, we have chosen instead to borrow, and now monetize that liability.
In an effort to maintain healthcare and not overburden the taxpayers, the nation has opted to make up the difference by using "free" freshly printed money to make up the difference. I see no changes on the horizon to curtail this practice.
With the 4 fold dilution of the money supply in the last 5 years, those dollars, once fully introduced into economy, will cause a four fold increase in retail prices. We are at the front end of that now with real CPI at about 7%.
Problem will be with our huge $16T debt. As interest rates rise to get in line with the current and rising inflation rate, our debt service cost rises to a further unsustainable level. Interest of the $16T is about $500B annually. When the 10 year rate doubles to 5.5% (which is close to the historical norm) as debt is refunded, we begin a climb to $1T annually for debt service.
Unless we take a Euro crisis austerity stance, which the US has demonstrated no stomach for, the added monetization can only cause an upward spiral of currency printing which will result in the long feared hyperinflation.
<< <i>Putin has blinked and gold is down over 1% from yesterday. Shows over folks, back to your regularly scheduled political theater. >>
He sent his message and knows how long it takes to enforce it. He likes the world stage more in this light more than the Olympics, my guess >>
How did this become a Putin slam ? Not that I agree or disagree, but there weren't too many terrorist attacks at the Olympics or in Crimea. And on the same token, we shut down Boston and how many million people for 2 guys that WE allowed here. Whether they were Russian, Muslim, uneducated or extremely educated is nothing to do with Putin.
As a nation, what do you suppose Mother Russia should do ? If someone came on our block and started this , we'd be in a POLICE state, too. This is how the military responds. Quickly and decisively . Without a SHOT being fired.
Just seeing this from a different angle. No drama or debate intended. Just comparative analysis to a crisis. Although we call it geopolitical, it's actually a product of GEO-Economics.
That's how I see it. The Central Banks could fix this in a minute. We are a civilized people , globally.
FORCES are present , but cooler heads prevail. I think , for a guy that only gets selective news online, that we are blowing some things out of proportion. The market reacts funny to news and rumors. Business is as usual. Diplomacy is an expensive trade. But it works, AND THE PEOPLE pay.
What's new ? We know the history of Putin. We fight over the backgrounds of our own presidents even more.
Unless we take a Euro crisis austerity stance, which the US has demonstrated no stomach for, the added monetization can only cause an upward spiral of currency printing which will result in the long feared hyperinflation.
I understand that other people assign a higher probability than I do, and a more-hyper hyperinflation forecast than I do. It's one of the reasons that I always say, "true" hyperinflation, because that has economic definitions, none of which I expect to experience in my lifetime in this country. (I'm about halfway through life)
I've heard the dire predictions in this country my whole life, and have seen bouts of high inflation (1970's) but to predict Argentine-style dropping of zeroes, or Zimbabwe-style adding of them, such that a loaf of bread costs $50 in 2014 dollars? A gallon of gas is $100? A normal handgun or suit of clothes or ounce of gold is $15,000? or $150,000? No.
<< <i> A gallon of gas is $100? A normal handgun or suit of clothes or ounce of gold is $15,000? or $150,000? >>
In 1975 or so, I was headed to the races with my family friends. Doc Benjamin was the old man. A WWII bomber pilot and business owner that had seen just about everything. We were riding in a new Chevy Caprice that had stickered for about $5000. Doc told us that in 5 years, a new Chevy would cost $10,000. I didn't disbelieve him, but I could not imagine a mid priced car costing $10,000. He was right of course.
Same car today is $30,000 out the door. In a decade it will be $100,000 and maybe a million bucks when our grandkids are adults.
Building cars is difficult, printing unbacked money is free. Million dollar cars will be the result.
Dropping zeros like the third world countries, I don't know. Was post WWI Germany a third world county?
Same car today is $30,000 out the door. In a decade it will be $100,000 and maybe a million bucks when our grandkids are adults.
Building cars is difficult, printing unbacked money is free. Million dollar cars will be the result.
Again, the definition of hyperinflation, all goods and services explode in price/value very fast because of loss of value in the currency.
So, with million dollar cars, you expect tract houses to be 35 million dollars? And a typical professional person will make 5 million per year?
No, not in your lifetime or mine, not even close. The grandkids? Their lives will be the stuff of science fiction. I'm not worried about the grandkids.
<< <i>So, with million dollar cars, you expect tract houses to be 35 million dollars? And a typical professional person will make 5 million per year? >>
They are only numbers, Baley. We have a perception of what things should cost and imagining a million dollar car is insane. Just as a $100,000 auto (Tesla perhaps) would be to my long deceased grandfather.
A decent auto has risen 30 fold in price since the end of the Depression, that would be about 75 years. The question is, how long will it take for it to rise 30 fold again. I suppose the better question is, how long will it take the fed to increase the money supply by that multiple.
We are already four fold on money creation since 2008. Another two doublings and we will have set the stage for the million dollar auto.
It may take ten more years for that or perhaps twenty. That should occur in both of our lifetimes.
Maybe car prices don't continue to rise at the same rate.
What happens to car prices when we hit "PEAK AUTO" ?
As a halfway decent mechanic I would say we are nearly there now. Added complexity is rapidly overwhelming the value of new features. Fixing these newer vehicles has become very difficult for people like me to keep up with.
Outside of warranty who wants to bring a newer car to a dealership for them to fix an uncommon problem? When your check engine light is set by a minor emission's part you can wind up throwing a car away because it isn't worth the labor hours to fix. Solution .... go buy a new car that is even more complex??????
I wouldn't even be fixing cars for people if we hadn't already hit "PEAK HOUSE" .
Well i sure wish it would hurry up, I'd like to sell a couple of ounces of gold and pay off a mortgage. If i were as sure as you, I'd go into debt to the eyeballs to buy real estate in good areas at fixed interest rates
<< <i>Ukraine may dictate the metals markets for a few weeks. >>
How about less than 1 day ... back to normal sideways gold & silver movement. >>
...and you think this is over? >>
Yup...the politicians will resolve this...Russia will get to keep the Crimea or assurances of sovereignty of their Naval and army bases. Ukraine will guarantee the safety of the Russian speaking population with a pledge to eliminate corruption in their government with an equal voice for the Russian populace. That's my take....only time will tell if it plays out this way.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Jim Willie's latest The Ukraine apparently has tons of newly-discovered natural gas fields and oil fields. Jim Sinclair alluded to this a couple weeks ago.
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>The Ukrainian government also needs $15 Billion to stay solvent. My father was Ukrainian and I have relatives over there. Putin is already amassing troops on the border. So not just default, but possibly war or civil war. Kerry offered $1 Billion in aid, though not enough to prevent chaos.
I see this as another Arab Spring for them. The Ukrainians see how corrupt their government is and Putin fears it will spill over to Russia. Both countries are being run by the mob. Ukrainian's former President lived very opulently and now is being hunted for war crimes.
It is very personal for me also - my family is Ukrainian and Russian, we have family there in the E. part of Ukraine and lots of friends there from when I lived there. We were just talking with some of them on skype earlier this evening. What is very fascinating is there are a lot of pro-Ukrainian peaceful protests that are NOT getting coverage in the west. The Russians literally bussed in hundreds of protesters to takeover the regional government building - kind of like "phantom residents" and they are doing it in Krim also.
But my friend sends pictures from the pro-Ukraine protests last night:
Oh I tell them they will start invasion of single American soldiers.
Problem is in Ukraine as you note, not many in politics are without blood on their hands. Yatsunyak is not a bad guy really, but having talked to his campaign people during the 2010 election I can tell you he is WAY over his head being thrust into the Prime Minister position. He also has problem in that though he is a practicing Orthodox Christian he has alleged Jewish ancestry in a country where that is not so popular or accepted.
Tymoschenko is lucky she was in jail - otherwise she would have been run out just like Yanukovych. She has blood all over her. When I lived there there were whispers of her being involved in disappearances of political opponents. This is all pretty foreign concept to people in America - but we were pretty used to this fun and games even 20 years after fall of USSR.
Back on topic here now, in Ukraine nobody stored any value in money in anything but dollars or gold. Gold made doors open to government offices very easily.
In memory of my kitty Seryozha 14.2.1996 ~ 13.9.2016 and Shadow 3.4.2015 - 16.4.21
<< <i>Ukraine may dictate the metals markets for a few weeks. >>
How about less than 1 day ... back to normal sideways gold & silver movement. >>
...and you think this is over? >>
Yup...the politicians will resolve this...Russia will get to keep the Crimea or assurances of sovereignty of their Naval and army bases. Ukraine will guarantee the safety of the Russian speaking population with a pledge to eliminate corruption in their government with an equal voice for the Russian populace. That's my take....only time will tell if it plays out this way. >>
Not so easy. I can understand Ukrainian, but not speak it. I lived in E. part of Ukraine where Russian is the spoken language, even if many of the speakers themselves are Ukrainian. The government especially under President Yuschenko made it so that everybody had to learn Ukrainian and not Russian. All documents must be done in Ukrainian. Try growing up speaking Russian all your life and then being told now you need to speak another language - while I am pro-Ukrainian in all of this - I can totally understand where Russian speakers feel something is wrong. I can understand from living in Texas a few years ago, even though I speak Spanish in addition to Russian - I do not expect to HAVE to speak Spanish like was expected in some part of Houston say government office, fast food restaurant etc.
The first thing this coup government did was roll back the language law to the laws that Yuschenko rammed through, in effect making Russian not a legal language again.
Stupid politicians on both sides are going to posture back and forth and the only real losers will be all Ukrainians. Again. I was supposed to go back next month. With all of unrest it is not likely now - I sure would love to be there stirring up stuff like I want to. At least I can create slogans and give advice over there.
In memory of my kitty Seryozha 14.2.1996 ~ 13.9.2016 and Shadow 3.4.2015 - 16.4.21
<< <i>Back on topic here now, in Ukraine nobody stored any value in money in anything but dollars or gold. Gold made doors open to government offices very easily. >>
Interesting, so nobody saved in the hryvnia? Since you lived there and have a better perspective on this than anyone else here, what do you think will happen? Will the people of Crimea willing leave the Ukraine and join the Russians?
Comments
"President Obama found his private moment of political candor caught by a live microphone on Monday as he told President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia that he would have “more flexibility” to negotiate on the delicate issue of missile defense after the November election, which Mr. Obama apparently feels confident he will win."
It's not like COMMUNISM is going to take over, or that Sharia law is threatening society there. Hostilities exist over "super powers". And it seems super powers have a thing for dictatorship in foreign land, all in "defense" of the people's interests.
I guess it's a matter of who has a greater interest in peace, or war. But how do you see metals being dictated by these current events ? Maybe fuel costs, but not metal…. probably.
<< <i>I hope our troops are headed there too. Time put Putin in his place. I notice it not being shown much on fluff TV any more. Don't want get the working poor riled up
You can tell that you don't have a son or daughter in our military.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>I think that the Crimea is the key here. If Putin pushes hard enough, he may get this critical Russian outpost under his control without upsetting the delicate balance of power in Ukraine. That may be negotiated away in the UN as we speak. >>
I agree. If Russia simply occupies the Crimea or even annexes it, and does nothing else, things will settle down and Ukraine will have to accept it as a fait accompli.
However, if Russia decides to "liberate" the rest of Ukraine and shuts off the natural gas to the EU as a warning to stay out of it, all heck could break loose.
<< <i>
<< <i>I hope our troops are headed there too. Time put Putin in his place. I notice it not being shown much on fluff TV any more. Don't want get the working poor riled up
You can tell that you don't have a son or daughter in our military. >>
Military is for soldiers, they signed up for it~?
<< <i>Military is for soldiers, they signed up for it~? >>
You seem to have a misunderstanding of the oath that they take as does the civilians who continually put them in harms way.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>My understanding is they ripped my 2 older brothers away to Vietnam in 1967 via the draft for no good reason. >>
"no good reason" says it all.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Crimea is Putin's gateway to the world stage. From there he can sail warships to Russia's shallow water "fueling depot" in Tartus (Syria) to drop off small arms, meddle in Iranian nuclear affairs, provide support to Libyan nationalists, etc. Where do you think all the AK-47s and bullets that shoot at our American and NATO alliance troops originate from? The Syrian chemical weapons? Iran's uncanny ability to further it's nuclear research despite decades of severe embargoes and threats of military intervention by the west?
Patton and Reagan might have been on to something.
Without Sevastopol Russia's influence over events in the area and support for those who stand counter to America's interests in the region becomes dependent on its political and financial clout. Russia becomes much less relevant unless it wants to risk sailing materiel from northern ports past the shores of every major NATO alliance country in Europe. Overland subversion is much harder to deny than foreign flagged cargo ships with mysterious cargo and manipulated bills of lading.
Russia's only other legitimate deep port option in the Black Sea is Novorossiysk, but it hasn't been built out to accommodate a naval fleet yet, it does not offer the same sheltered geography as Sevastopol, and worst of all, it's located in one of the most volatile areas in the whole of the Russian empire. Chechnya, Georgia, Abkhazia, etc, have violently opposed Russia in the near past and Russia is still rightfully worried about what extremists might do to disrupt it's interests in the area. It would be like building a pillow fort in a tiger cage and Putin knows it.
War with Russia is not advisable, but we should be doing more to support Ukraine in it's fight.
<< <i>Russia gave Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. They want it back.
Impact on the metals markets will be minimal. Afterall, its the evil banksters that control prices, right? >>
Absolutely! Crimea was the site of the Czar's summer residence. Nikita Khrushchev gave that area back to Ukraine when
he was the First Sec'y of the Communist Party. He was from Ukraine.
The US will do little or nothing and Putin knows this better than anyone. He has looked into Obama's soul!
<< <i>Gas is a concern but I'd argue it's pretty far down Putin's priorities list right now. #1 is unfettered sea lane access to the Levant, Mediterranean, and Persian Gulf. The only way he can keep that access open is by asserting control of Crimea and Black Sea Naval port facilities in Sevastopol. As a minor secondary benefit it also means Russia can exert de facto oversight of Odessa, Ukraine's larger mainland commercial port, if they don't just decide to seize it first. One of the first acts of the recently deposed former Ukrainian president was to extend the lease of Sevastopol to the Russian Navy for 25-30 years despite popular opinion and his predecessors vehement statements to the contrary.
Crimea is Putin's gateway to the world stage. From there he can sail warships to Russia's shallow water "fueling depot" in Tartus (Syria) to drop off small arms, meddle in Iranian nuclear affairs, provide support to Libyan nationalists, etc. Where do you think all the AK-47s and bullets that shoot at our American and NATO alliance troops originate from? The Syrian chemical weapons? Iran's uncanny ability to further it's nuclear research despite decades of severe embargoes and threats of military intervention by the west?
Patton and Reagan might have been on to something.
Without Sevastopol Russia's influence over events in the area and support for those who stand counter to America's interests in the region becomes dependent on its political and financial clout. Russia becomes much less relevant unless it wants to risk sailing materiel from northern ports past the shores of every major NATO alliance country in Europe. Overland subversion is much harder to deny than foreign flagged cargo ships with mysterious cargo and manipulated bills of lading.
Russia's only other legitimate deep port option in the Black Sea is Novorossiysk, but it hasn't been built out to accommodate a naval fleet yet, it does not offer the same sheltered geography as Sevastopol, and worst of all, it's located in one of the most volatile areas in the whole of the Russian empire. Chechnya, Georgia, Abkhazia, etc, have violently opposed Russia in the near past and Russia is still rightfully worried about what extremists might do to disrupt it's interests in the area. It would be like building a pillow fort in a tiger cage and Putin knows it.
War with Russia is not advisable, but we should be doing more to support Ukraine in it's fight. >>
Pete is very observant and knowledgeable. I don't pretend to know Russia's aims but it wouldn't surprise me if they stopped at control of Crimea. Now to put the shoe on the other foot, how many Americans would tolerate meddling by Russia (or any other power) in Cuba or the Yucatan or Baha Mexico or anywhere close by (since the Monroe Doctrine, we haven't really allowed that and Kennedy showed down the Russians when they attempted this 50 years ago), by setting up a huge Russian naval base? How would it look if we go in and try to stop Russia from exercising its own form of the Monroe Doctrine at its only viable port in that area? The Russians are very much land-locked and will defend this area to the death, if my feelings are correct. We wouldn't be wise to interfere here.
And another thing: where do you think all of Europe gets its natural gas from? Does anyone realistically expect the Europeans to bite the hand that feeds them (or keeps them warm) in this case? Give me a break.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
further into Ukraine, gold will go higher.
<< <i>This invasion is exactly what gold needed. The US will do nothing but talk, Putin will move
further into Ukraine, gold will go higher. >>
We'll see, so far it's a non issue ... as I type...gold is up less than 1.5% ...not much of a movement in my book.
Silver up less than 1%
Plat & Pall...less than .5%
In the pre Bernanke/Yellen/Bush/Obama world, debt instruments hated inflation. Now they just follow the DC dictated script.
<< <i>Monday is the usual day I get to talk to my Ukrainian friend after work. I'll get her thoughts on the troop involvement and see if she talked to her family. >>
Hope that your friend is well. Communication disruptions were reported in the region over the weekend. Please keep us updated.
Obama's soul? Interesting. He definitely has an agenda, but a soul?
I knew it would happen.
In the pre Bernanke/Yellen/Bush/Obama world, debt instruments hated inflation. Now they just follow the DC dictated script.
Yeah, it actually is interesting. It does look like an open door for money creation - in "our time of need".
The next thing we know, the debt will hit the levels that were projected for 2025 by next year. And rates will have to remain low or the debt will absolutely explode.
On further reflection, it's going to explode anyway. Ancient Rome did the same thing when they couldn't finance their military with real money. Same thing. Same direction.
I'm firmly of the opinion that it's ALL about government finance, and that means the bond market. The other markets are just collateral damage.
I knew it would happen.
A map for those that need a geography refresher.
<< <i>The next thing we know, the debt will hit the levels that were projected for 2025 by next year. And rates will have to remain low or the debt will absolutely explode.
On further reflection, it's going to explode anyway. Ancient Rome did the same thing when they couldn't finance their military with real money. Same thing. Same direction. >>
There's a famous principle called
Godwin's Law (aka Reductio ad Hitlerum) that applies to public policy discussions.
There should be a corollary for economics discussions about the modern American economy, for when the inevitable comparisons to Weimar, Zimbabwe, and Ancient Rome that tend to be used to support certain arguments and predictions (i.e. hyperinflation, collapse of the empire, etc)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>There's a famous principle called
Godwin's Law (aka Reductio ad Hitlerum) that applies to public policy discussions.
There should be a corollary for economics discussions about the modern American economy, for when the inevitable comparisons to Weimar, Zimbabwe, and Ancient Rome that tend to be used to support certain arguments and predictions (i.e. hyperinflation, collapse of the empire, etc)
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The next thing we know, the debt will hit the levels that were projected for 2025 by next year. And rates will have to remain low or the debt will absolutely explode.
On further reflection, it's going to explode anyway. Ancient Rome did the same thing when they couldn't finance their military with real money. Same thing. Same direction. >>
There's a famous principle called
Godwin's Law (aka Reductio ad Hitlerum) that applies to public policy discussions.
There should be a corollary for economics discussions about the modern American economy, for when the inevitable comparisons to Weimar, Zimbabwe, and Ancient Rome that tend to be used to support certain arguments and predictions (i.e. hyperinflation, collapse of the empire, etc) >>
Serious question, Baley. Is there any scenario of deficit spending and/or easy money policy that could create hyperinflation in the US, or are we exempt because hey, this is America?
Probable? Not in my opinion. What do you think?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Of course, it depends on your definition of hyper ... say more than 50 % per year.
Hyperinflation (like other catastrophes) would require a sequence of severe events that cascade.
For anyone who believe that hyperinflation could occur in the US, please define what that sequence of cascading events is.
<< <i>True US hyperinflation theoretically possible? Sure.
Probable? Not in my opinion. What do you think? >>
Thank you for responding, Baley.
My view is that even exceptional nations cannot escape natural law. Economics fall in to that category.
We have expanded the expenditure on medical care from 5% of GDP to nearly 20% since the late 1970's. Not to debate the value of that here, but much of that has not been paid for. Our jump in the national debt over the last 30 years pretty much equates to the full cost of Medicare/Medicaid, over that time.
Rather than tax the citizenry over that period, we have chosen instead to borrow, and now monetize that liability.
In an effort to maintain healthcare and not overburden the taxpayers, the nation has opted to make up the difference by using "free" freshly printed money to make up the difference. I see no changes on the horizon to curtail this practice.
With the 4 fold dilution of the money supply in the last 5 years, those dollars, once fully introduced into economy, will cause a four fold increase in retail prices. We are at the front end of that now with real CPI at about 7%.
Problem will be with our huge $16T debt. As interest rates rise to get in line with the current and rising inflation rate, our debt service cost rises to a further unsustainable level. Interest of the $16T is about $500B annually. When the 10 year rate doubles to 5.5% (which is close to the historical norm) as debt is refunded, we begin a climb to $1T annually for debt service.
Unless we take a Euro crisis austerity stance, which the US has demonstrated no stomach for, the added monetization can only cause an upward spiral of currency printing which will result in the long feared hyperinflation.
<< <i>Putin has blinked and gold is down over 1% from yesterday. Shows over folks, back to your regularly scheduled political theater. >>
He sent his message and knows how long it takes to enforce it. He likes the world stage more in this light more than the Olympics, my guess
<< <i>True US hyperinflation theoretically possible? Sure.
Probable? Not in my opinion. What do you think? >>
Possible in today's world? ..."only when Hell freezes over."
<< <i>
<< <i>Putin has blinked and gold is down over 1% from yesterday. Shows over folks, back to your regularly scheduled political theater. >>
He sent his message and knows how long it takes to enforce it. He likes the world stage more in this light more than the Olympics, my guess >>
How did this become a Putin slam ? Not that I agree or disagree, but there weren't too many terrorist attacks at the Olympics or in Crimea. And on the same token, we shut down Boston and how many million people for 2 guys that WE allowed here. Whether they were Russian, Muslim, uneducated or extremely educated is nothing to do with Putin.
As a nation, what do you suppose Mother Russia should do ? If someone came on our block and started this , we'd be in a POLICE state, too. This is how the military responds. Quickly and decisively . Without a SHOT being fired.
Just seeing this from a different angle. No drama or debate intended. Just comparative analysis to a crisis. Although we call it geopolitical, it's actually a product of GEO-Economics.
That's how I see it. The Central Banks could fix this in a minute. We are a civilized people , globally.
FORCES are present , but cooler heads prevail. I think , for a guy that only gets selective news online, that we are blowing some things out of proportion. The market reacts funny to news and rumors. Business is as usual. Diplomacy is an expensive trade. But it works, AND THE PEOPLE pay.
What's new ? We know the history of Putin. We fight over the backgrounds of our own presidents even more.
<< <i>Ukraine may dictate the metals markets for a few weeks. >>
How about less than 1 day ... back to normal sideways gold & silver movement.
I understand that other people assign a higher probability than I do, and a more-hyper hyperinflation forecast than I do. It's one of the reasons that I always say, "true" hyperinflation, because that has economic definitions, none of which I expect to experience in my lifetime in this country. (I'm about halfway through life)
I've heard the dire predictions in this country my whole life, and have seen bouts of high inflation (1970's) but to predict Argentine-style dropping of zeroes, or Zimbabwe-style adding of them, such that a loaf of bread costs $50 in 2014 dollars? A gallon of gas is $100? A normal handgun or suit of clothes or ounce of gold is $15,000? or $150,000?
No.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i> A gallon of gas is $100? A normal handgun or suit of clothes or ounce of gold is $15,000? or $150,000? >>
In 1975 or so, I was headed to the races with my family friends. Doc Benjamin was the old man. A WWII bomber pilot and business owner that had seen just about everything. We were riding in a new Chevy Caprice that had stickered for about $5000. Doc told us that in 5 years, a new Chevy would cost $10,000. I didn't disbelieve him, but I could not imagine a mid priced car costing $10,000. He was right of course.
Same car today is $30,000 out the door. In a decade it will be $100,000 and maybe a million bucks when our grandkids are adults.
Building cars is difficult, printing unbacked money is free. Million dollar cars will be the result.
Dropping zeros like the third world countries, I don't know. Was post WWI Germany a third world county?
Building cars is difficult, printing unbacked money is free. Million dollar cars will be the result.
Again, the definition of hyperinflation, all goods and services explode in price/value very fast because of loss of value in the currency.
So, with million dollar cars, you expect tract houses to be 35 million dollars? And a typical professional person will make 5 million per year?
No, not in your lifetime or mine, not even close. The grandkids? Their lives will be the stuff of science fiction. I'm not worried about the grandkids.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>So, with million dollar cars, you expect tract houses to be 35 million dollars? And a typical professional person will make 5 million per year? >>
They are only numbers, Baley. We have a perception of what things should cost and imagining a million dollar car is insane. Just as a $100,000 auto (Tesla perhaps) would be to my long deceased grandfather.
A decent auto has risen 30 fold in price since the end of the Depression, that would be about 75 years. The question is, how long will it take for it to rise 30 fold again. I suppose the better question is, how long will it take the fed to increase the money supply by that multiple.
We are already four fold on money creation since 2008. Another two doublings and we will have set the stage for the million dollar auto.
It may take ten more years for that or perhaps twenty. That should occur in both of our lifetimes.
Maybe car prices don't continue to rise at the same rate.
What happens to car prices when we hit "PEAK AUTO" ?
As a halfway decent mechanic I would say we are nearly there now. Added complexity is rapidly overwhelming the value of new features. Fixing these newer vehicles has become very difficult for people like me to keep up with.
Outside of warranty who wants to bring a newer car to a dealership for them to fix an uncommon problem? When your check engine light is set by a minor emission's part you can wind up throwing a car away because it isn't worth the labor hours to fix. Solution .... go buy a new car that is even more complex??????
I wouldn't even be fixing cars for people if we hadn't already hit "PEAK HOUSE" .
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i> I'd go into debt to the eyeballs to buy real estate in good areas at fixed interest rates >>
Or coins!
Good discussion btw, Baley!
<< <i>
<< <i>Ukraine may dictate the metals markets for a few weeks. >>
How about less than 1 day ... back to normal sideways gold & silver movement. >>
...and you think this is over?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Ukraine may dictate the metals markets for a few weeks. >>
How about less than 1 day ... back to normal sideways gold & silver movement. >>
...and you think this is over? >>
Yup...the politicians will resolve this...Russia will get to keep the Crimea or assurances of sovereignty of their Naval and army bases. Ukraine will guarantee the safety of the Russian speaking population with a pledge to eliminate corruption in their government with an equal voice for the Russian populace. That's my take....only time will tell if it plays out this way.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>The Ukrainian government also needs $15 Billion to stay solvent. My father was Ukrainian and I have relatives over there. Putin is already amassing troops on the border. So not just default, but possibly war or civil war. Kerry offered $1 Billion in aid, though not enough to prevent chaos.
I see this as another Arab Spring for them. The Ukrainians see how corrupt their government is and Putin fears it will spill over to Russia. Both countries are being run by the mob. Ukrainian's former President lived very opulently and now is being hunted for war crimes.
Putin Outfoxes Ukrainian Protestors >>
It is very personal for me also - my family is Ukrainian and Russian, we have family there in the E. part of Ukraine and lots of friends there from when I lived there. We were just talking with some of them on skype earlier this evening. What is very fascinating is there are a lot of pro-Ukrainian peaceful protests that are NOT getting coverage in the west. The Russians literally bussed in hundreds of protesters to takeover the regional government building - kind of like "phantom residents" and they are doing it in Krim also.
But my friend sends pictures from the pro-Ukraine protests last night:
Oh I tell them they will start invasion of single American soldiers.
Problem is in Ukraine as you note, not many in politics are without blood on their hands. Yatsunyak is not a bad guy really, but having talked to his campaign people during the 2010 election I can tell you he is WAY over his head being thrust into the Prime Minister position. He also has problem in that though he is a practicing Orthodox Christian he has alleged Jewish ancestry in a country where that is not so popular or accepted.
Tymoschenko is lucky she was in jail - otherwise she would have been run out just like Yanukovych. She has blood all over her. When I lived there there were whispers of her being involved in disappearances of political opponents. This is all pretty foreign concept to people in America - but we were pretty used to this fun and games even 20 years after fall of USSR.
Back on topic here now, in Ukraine nobody stored any value in money in anything but dollars or gold. Gold made doors open to government offices very easily.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Ukraine may dictate the metals markets for a few weeks. >>
How about less than 1 day ... back to normal sideways gold & silver movement. >>
...and you think this is over? >>
Yup...the politicians will resolve this...Russia will get to keep the Crimea or assurances of sovereignty of their Naval and army bases. Ukraine will guarantee the safety of the Russian speaking population with a pledge to eliminate corruption in their government with an equal voice for the Russian populace. That's my take....only time will tell if it plays out this way. >>
Not so easy. I can understand Ukrainian, but not speak it. I lived in E. part of Ukraine where Russian is the spoken language, even if many of the speakers themselves are Ukrainian. The government especially under President Yuschenko made it so that everybody had to learn Ukrainian and not Russian. All documents must be done in Ukrainian. Try growing up speaking Russian all your life and then being told now you need to speak another language - while I am pro-Ukrainian in all of this - I can totally understand where Russian speakers feel something is wrong. I can understand from living in Texas a few years ago, even though I speak Spanish in addition to Russian - I do not expect to HAVE to speak Spanish like was expected in some part of Houston say government office, fast food restaurant etc.
The first thing this coup government did was roll back the language law to the laws that Yuschenko rammed through, in effect making Russian not a legal language again.
Stupid politicians on both sides are going to posture back and forth and the only real losers will be all Ukrainians. Again. I was supposed to go back next month. With all of unrest it is not likely now - I sure would love to be there stirring up stuff like I want to. At least I can create slogans and give advice over there.
<< <i>Back on topic here now, in Ukraine nobody stored any value in money in anything but dollars or gold. Gold made doors open to government offices very easily. >>
Interesting, so nobody saved in the hryvnia? Since you lived there and have a better perspective on this than anyone else here, what do you think will happen? Will the people of Crimea willing leave the Ukraine and join the Russians?