What is your assessment of the current economy?
MGLICKER
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Seems that we are always looking forward and occasionally behind. Where are we today, February 13, 2014?
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Interest rates - record lows since 2009. At some point will adjust upward.
Real Estate - moderate gains since meltdown because of cheap money (low interest rates) that have been artificially manipulated by the Federal Reserve. Once the Fed changes course, look out!
Bonds - lowest yields I can remember. What will happen if interest rates go up??????? Bonds will go down! No real good place to put your money if you are looking for income right now.
Inflation - still waiting for it to take off. When it does, the Fisher hypothesis tells us interest rates will rise. In addition, the upward sloping yield curve indicates higher future rates based on the expectations theory. In my opinion, it takes a lot more dollars to buy my groceries, utilities and gas for my car. Enough said.
Precious metals - has experienced a solid correction. In a holding pattern right now depending on items mentioned above. Market is rigged in my opinion but can still be used as a defensive hedge for serious financial meltdown.
Federal Reserve - waiting to see what Janet Yellen is really going to do. Tapering for now I guess. I think the Fed's hands are tied because the federal funds rate is effectively 0% and has been for years. Open market operations are useless at this point except for keeping the status quo.
Fiscal policy - government spending is out of control without adequate tax revenue. Based on debt ceiling discussions and the new health care reform, don't expect to see an improvement in the near term. Where is the inflation???????
Global outlook - Have not heard a large deal about terrorist activities in the short term. Once the media finds something to latch onto if a major event happens, could have serious short term effects on the markets.
Foreign exchange - I think the Fed likes a weak dollar with its stimulative monetary policy. The dollar is down big time since 2001 versus world currencies by design of the FED. At some point, this course will have to change.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Oh yeah, food prices are so high here in Hawaii and keeps going up!
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Seems that we are always looking forward and occasionally behind. Where are we today, February 13, 2014?
I love this question! Do we mean the world economy, the US economy, or the local economy?
Either way, my answer is the same as my answer to the question, "How is the weather?"
Mixed, constantly changing, some seasonal and long term trends not surprising, and local conditions depend on specific people and places and attitudes!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I love this question! Do we mean the world economy, the US economy, or the local economy? >>
Good question. Though I was thinking US economy, it is impossible to disengage us from the rest of the world, particularly China and Japan, that hold large portions of our debt.
<< <i>it needs major work on almost everything. were due for a major correction on the markets. >>
Nasdaq is showing signs of giddiness. Once a PE is over 30 or non existent, the sky is the limit I suppose.
<< <i>Locally, terrible; Nationally, not good but has opportunities; World, lousy. Cheers, RickO >>
This way my take is: Locally, good; Nationally, below average with strong pockets; World, poor.
I agree with derryb that Nationally things are VERY fragile and still propped by QE, ZIRP, and deficit spending at ALL levels of gov't. My local municipality is $150 million+ in debt, it's everywhere.
<< <i>Great post, hchcoin. Best I have seen in months! >>
I'll second that, but I do stop just short of calling the market rigged, it's more of a place were little guys go to get slaughtered, get up and get slaughtered again.
Nice post, hchcoin
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My view of the US economy is, believe it or not similar to Baley's and cohodk's in that I think that the US is still in the lead position, relatively speaking. Unfortunately, our lead is being torpedoed on almost a daily basis by many of our elected and unelected officials, who seem to act as if the advantages that the US enjoys were never deserved or earned in the first place. I disagree with that opinion.
I see our economy facing unprecedented headwinds from changing world alliances, and some of these changes - including our partial de-industrialization, over-emphasis on regulation & environmental controls, loss of the dollar as the world reserve currency, and newly-formed bilateral trade agreements that circumvent the petrodollar - all of these factors are putting the squeeze on our longterm outlook, especially if we don't start looking forward further than the next mid-term election.
I think that economic data has been wrongly manipulated since the early 1980's, and that the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999 has been harmful to the economy in a systemic way by allowing the big banks to run amok in the markets. I also think that when the FASB caved in and allowed the big banks to change their accounting rules in 2008 during the banking bailout fiesta - such that there is now no accountability for malfeasance or mismanagement, it set the tone for continued massive corruption and failure. I believe that all of this is by design.
The fact that the Fed is buying US Treasuries in order to skew interest rates is symptomatic of the situation and that we are living on/in a house of cards. The math doesn't lie. Nobody wants to stop shipping product. Nobody wants to find out that their bank account or retirement account is cooked. Nobody wants to think the worst. So, every day is just another tenuous step in a direction where nobody's ever been before. What's the economy doing? Who really knows for sure? I'm still waiting to get paid for a large job that was delivered in October. How soon before the non-payment is official? Look at your own business and see how many times that situation is occurring. The proof is in the pudding. I'm a bit worried myself.
In Atlas Shrugged, the productive engines of the world stopped one at a time, for most of the very same reasons that we see happening right now.
I knew it would happen.
from my vantage point the economy -- in particular the jobs market -- seems very weak. Was notified last September (over 5 months ago) that my job was being eliminated and became officially unemployed at the end of December. I'm quite specialized in my profession, so there aren't a lot of appropriate job positions to begin with... but I've been really surprised at how hard it even is to get interviews. my credentials and qualifications are very strong... probably top 1 or 2% in my field... yet even I have had a hard time landing something. I can't imagine what it's like in the rest of the job market.
Manufacturing is a backbone for everything else. Yet we have largely de-industrialized and our politicians and others don't care much at all. Ponder this:
"America's manufacturing sector has retreated faster and further in relative terms than that of any other large, affluent nation. US manufacturing as a percentage of GDP declined from 27 percent in 1950 to 11 percent in 2009. While manufacturing as a share of GDP has also declined in Germany and Japan, both countries have retained relatively larger manufacturing sectors at 17 and 21 percent, respectively." Link.
From the same article: "From 1896 to the early 1970s, the United States had a trade surplus. In 1976, America's trade deficit was just $6 billion, but by 1990, the trade deficit was more than 13 times larger at $80 billion (all in nominal terms). By 2006 it was almost 10 times bigger still: $759 billion. While the economic downturn reduced the annual total to $375 billion in 2009, it rose again in 2010 to nearly $500 billion. Indeed, America's trade deficit is larger than the individual GDPs of all but 19 countries in the world."
Is there any wonder the American economy is weak?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The cost of medical care continues to skyrocket with much of the burden landing on those at or near the middle class. It is not enough at they have to pay the $8000 annually per person for themselves and their families, but for the retirees and low or no income residents as well. The real cost to a family earning say $100k is closer to $33k than $18K. I am including the benefit earned from their employer in the equation.
Next up is the deteriorating pension problem for the baby boomers and beyond. Nothing is free, and the governments decision to buy their way out of financial distress with unsupported currency will cause a large real loss to paper assets. Many pensions are fixed and will offer the retirees significantly less buying power than many have imagined.
Perhaps the greatest challenge will be reversing the trend to reward non producers and penalize those that work hard. I am seeing instances where members of my middle aged cohort are fed up and just mailing it in. Any extra effort or work hours are rejected and relegated to the next slob.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
It still applies today.
But 'when will it fall' is the real question.
Put another way, it's an 'unreal, manipulative' market , yet acting in a 'real, unmanipulative' way.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
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I suppose that the higher produce prices resulting from the drought will be considered a one time event and disregarded in consideration of monetary policy.
<< <i>America was sold out by industrial, financial and political leaders who are apparently immune from accountability for their actions. The rest of America is left to suffer the consequences. >>
That is it in a nutshell.
I am seeing who is doing the buying from those doing the selling out, first hand.
<< <i>Not to disparage HCH's insightful comment but....coincidence???
Thats great!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Inflation, sure, but that's nothing new. Have you seen those property prices in Monopoly? Houses used to cost $50 to 400!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
A statement such as "Inflation, sure, but that's nothing new" proves my point.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
And what point is that?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>They know that lopping off zeros causes riots. Lopping off fractions of a penny at a time seems to go unnoticed (by most).
A statement such as "Inflation, sure, but that's nothing new" proves my point. >>
We have not yet reached the lopping off point and hope that it never comes to that. I wonder though what the reaction might be to an overnight dumping of treasuries by the Asians with the accompanying soaring and economy crippling interest rate hike.
If the last 6 years are a guide, The US will no doubt accelerate money creation to try to absorb the supply of bonds and bring us to the brink of lopping off digits from our over diluted currency.
As we have wasted half a decade, or really a third of a century making no attempt to balance the books, that fate seems to be on the horizon.
<< <i>A statement such as "Inflation, sure, but that's nothing new" proves my point
And what point is that? >>
that lopping off of fractions of a penny at a time is somehow acceptable:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>A statement such as "Inflation, sure, but that's nothing new" proves my point
And what point is that? >>
that lopping off fractions of a penny at a time via inflation seems to go unnoticed by most.
A slow devaluation is apparantly acceptable even though when years of it are added up it amounts to lopping off a zero or two. >>
Absolutely. And this is because people spend most of their income in the year received, so it's irrelevant (with respect to those particular dollars, and the earner) how many goods and services such an amount of dollars bought 100 or 50 or 10 years ago.
And for invested dollars, well the whole point of investing is to buy something that grows in value faster than inflation, or, better, a basket of things that grow at different rates under different conditions, so that the whole basket does better than inflation.
A good example is the comparison of inflation and the gold price during the time period of 1982 through 1999, 17 years of price inflation in most things (salary, food, energy, stock prices, housing prices)
How did gold prices perform during those 17 years?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>The American way - slowly take something from them and they might not notice. >>
What is slowly being taken? The purchasing power of dollars stored as federal reserve notes or bank deposits that do not earn interest?
I'd argue that freedom from risk (for those dollars) of unpredictable losses of magnitude are being traded for the safety and security of a virtually guaranteed slow loss, at the expense of inflation-beating returns.
Want to make a profit? Take a risk! Like we do when we buy precious metals! Might make money, might lose money when we go to sell!
(oops, but then we'd have to blame our own selves for the results of our efforts, instead of the nebulous "them")
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>And for invested dollars, well the whole point of investing is to buy something that grows in value faster than inflation, or, better, a basket of things that grow at different rates under different conditions, so that the whole basket does better than inflation. >>
Some investors beat the inflation rate but most do not. Gold from 1982-97 is a prime example. So is the Japanese stock market from 1989 until today, which is still down over 60% from the peak. Even if the investment holds to the rate of inflation over 20 or 30 years until retirement, we get nailed with a cap gains tax which removes what, 15% or more from our life savings.
Sadly, investing in cash is no longer viable in a free spending, live for today cash printing society. Folks that have absolutely no business buying stocks or gold feel forced into these vehicles and typically get slaughtered. They should have the option of a small but safe return on bank deposits, but that option has long been off the table.
Of course they also unfortunately depend on these same leaders to protect many other things that are slowly being taken away from them. As I said earlier, slow change seems to be more acceptable. Most people have been conditioned not to notice it - an "acceptable" 2% inflation rate each year for example.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There would be ups & downs, and there would be inequalities galore. And in so doing, the talented would benefit more so than the lazy or unqualified. Even amongst the poor, there are the deserving and the undeserving. Basic law and a stable social order sorts those inequalities out much better than any government program ever will.
Want to make money? Yes, take a risk! But then give most of it back to the government to waste on people and things with which you vehemently disagree? Aye, THAT is the rub.
I knew it would happen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
To paraphrase, "The US is the most unfair, corrupt, and limiting place to live, except for all the other countries on earth"
It's a package deal. Want a different package? Go get it! what's stopping you? (and I mean the generic "you", not anyone here in particular)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>It's a package deal. Want a different package? Go get it! what's stopping you? (and I mean the generic "you", not anyone here in particular) >>
Specious argument, Baley. Reminds me of the Archie Bunker love it or leave it rants of the early 70's.
Rather than leave it, about half of us want to return to responsible and limited spending, ditto on taxation. Problem is, the other half encourage and absorb the waste or do not care. When groceries jump 10% in price, it is Wal Mart's fault, and not the dolts that they elected to congress.
Been fun, but I gotta run. Got WORK to do, and inflation to beat, and windmills to tilt
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Couldn't agree more. But it's still a great system! >>
yes it is. Unfortunately many of us remember when it was a much better system. We also know that at the rate things are going it's greatness is being eroded. Just because it's a slow erosion does not make it acceptable, only unnoticeable (to most).
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The U.S. population is 4 people sitting around a kitchen table and they're worth a combined $1,000,000. One person at the table is worth $990,000, one person has no net worth, and the other two split the remaining $10,000 between them.
Our current fiscal "policies" exacerbate the situation and accelerate the disparity. With no return to normal monetary policy on the horizon? Expect more of the same. If you're that one person with $990,000? Of course you think everything's grand.
<< <i> One person at the table is worth $990,000, one person has no net worth, and the other two split the remaining $10,000 between them. >>
You forgot to add that the two guys with the 10k have to cover health insurance for the zero money fellow and use the rest to bail out the $990k bloke.
And that's where much of the newly-created debted-financed money continues to go. In other words, the bankers will own everything, not just the politicians and it will be paid for by the labor of whoever is left to work.
I knew it would happen.
Logic would dictate to keep you hard earned dollars within your own country as far as manufacturing-buying what your own economy produces providing jobs for your fellow Americans so they can buy those same U.S. manufactured products-keeping the wheels of the economy churning. We have been exporting those hard earned dollars to China and others and now you are in the situation where the middle class is decimated.
Our economy has become more service based and less manufactured based. The problem with our economy is structural and printing to infinity only creates the illusion of a healthy economy and will only work for so long. We never tried to fix the structure of our economy. Even if we put those QE dollars to helping restore the collapsing infrastructure of America would be better instead of inflating the stock market. The Fed's $85 billion a month of buying bad bank debt only helps the 1%.
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Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>When people get old they need services, not things. Demand in this country for services will be greater than demand for things for another 25 years. >>
All those service providers will still demand things.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>When people get old they need services, not things. Demand in this country for services will be greater than demand for things for another 25 years. >>
All those service providers will still demand things.
Actually in 25 years those service providers will be complaining about the economy and talking about the "good old days". "Where have all my customers gone?", they will ask.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Or we could think about all free stuff available on the internet ... (how does this affect inflation!) ...
<< <i>Or we could think about all free stuff available on the internet ... (how does this affect inflation!) ... >>
Good point. Internet has dramatically cut my spending on periodicals, music and communications. On the other hand, the price for the same service level has jumped from $39 to $63 per month in 5 years.
Sad, profound, but so very, very true.
Dave