"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@blitzdude said:
The Roaring 20's!!! Probably made more $$$ off my stocks today then what I will get of my metals for the next decade. BOOMIN!
Careful. Only when you sell them. One day you gonna wake up and all those paper gains have gone "poof."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@jmski52 said: Have you really studied economic history from 1865-1914 and concluded that was a better time for the USA than any other, or from 1914-present?
Recessions were much more frequent, lasted longer and were much deeper. Yet you say that was better?
It appears that we are in a global "everything bubble" that is built upon the crazy concept that debt = money, do you not agree?
There is no question the world economy and financial system are in an unprecedented bubble. If this isn't one, what exactly would be? It's a continuation of the 2000 and 2007 bubble which never ended. Far worse than Japan in 1989 or the US in 1929 because it applies to every major economy.
Lowest aggregate credit standards in the history of civilization worldwide in a desperate search for yield combined with financial intermediaries more interested in meeting or beating their benchmarks versus the safety of their client's money.
A US stock market bubble matched only by 2000 which is a total outlier versus practically every other index of any consequence elsewhere. Most foreign markets either peaked around 2007 or even 1999/2000. And it isn't just because of differences in economic "growth" either. I don't believe reported Chinese data but the Shanghai index is off about 50% from it's 2007 high as an example.
Real estate bubbles in numerous cities worldwide which have surpassed the last one from 2006-2007.
US economic growth substantially if not entirely the result of increases in US federal government spending. If the annual increase in outstanding public debt was the same as pre-2008, economic growth since 2009 would be close to zero or even negative much or most of the time. It's taken $11 trillion of incremental government debt and near zero Fed funds for 11 years running to generate about 2.5% growth in this pathetic economic expansion.
I call it pathetic because, while corporate profits have increased noticeably (though flat versus 2014 according to one source I read) and official unemployment is at multi-decade lows, most people are either broke or one bear market and job loss from a noticeable decline or crash landing in their standard of living.
Perpetually increasing debt does not equal wealth. It's a "smoke and mirrors" economy since 2009 (at minimum) from a combination of absurdly lax credit standards and artificially distorted interest rates. "Normalize" federal spending and interest rates and today's narrow and shallow prosperity in the US would vanish.
Yep, the same derivatives that blew up Wall St. in 2008.
But wait, there's more! Citibank has bought $898 Billion in CDSs.
Why do the banks feel they need this much insurance/protection? Stackers know the answer, do you?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Yep, the same derivatives that blew up Wall St. in 2008.
But wait, there's more! Citibank has bought $898 Billion in CDSs.
Why do the banks feel they need this much insurance/protection?
So a net $40 billion to protect $2 trillion in assets is excessive?
Again, you fail to see the point. A CDS is insurance against risky debt. Why is a major bank gambling at such risk and whose funds are they using to do so? Keep in mind this is just one bank.
Was CDS exposure excessive in 2008?
I know, you believe it will be different next time, but that's OK, just buy some "Next Time Swaps."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Is the U.S. economy slowing down? Yes. I think we are dancing in a mine field. Some corporation will hit the debt mine and go poof (insolvent). Then it will depend on who that company owed how much money to. Will one bankruptcy cause a contagion, most likely not. When, where I don't know. So long as jobs remain available the economy will stay "good."
I keep thinking the devaluation of the U.S. dollar will cause inflation, but I have been wrong for years now so doubts have crept in.
There's something unearthly counter-intuitive about amassing trillions of dollars in debt, and not experiencing massive and ruinous inflation. I assume it has much to do with the role of the dollar as the international currency and means (therefore) of geopolitical clout, a role that the Chinese and others are working full bore to change.
Yep, the same derivatives that blew up Wall St. in 2008.
But wait, there's more! Citibank has bought $898 Billion in CDSs.
Why do the banks feel they need this much insurance/protection?
So a net $40 billion to protect $2 trillion in assets is excessive?
Again, you fail to see the point. A CDS is insurance against risky debt. Why is a major bank gambling at such risk and whose funds are they using to do so? Keep in mind this is just one bank.
Was CDS exposure excessive in 2008?
I know, you believe it will be different next time, but that's OK, just buy some "Next Time Swaps."
First, a CDS does not pertain only to "risky debt".
Second, a holder of a CDS does not need to hold the underlying debt.
Third, I've stated a hundred times on this forum that i believe every time is the same or that no time is different.
Forth, ask the bank why they do what they do, or you can play with misinformed conjecture.
Yep, the same derivatives that blew up Wall St. in 2008.
But wait, there's more! Citibank has bought $898 Billion in CDSs.
Why do the banks feel they need this much insurance/protection?
So a net $40 billion to protect $2 trillion in assets is excessive?
Again, you fail to see the point. A CDS is insurance against risky debt. Why is a major bank gambling at such risk and whose funds are they using to do so? Keep in mind this is just one bank.
Was CDS exposure excessive in 2008?
I know, you believe it will be different next time, but that's OK, just buy some "Next Time Swaps."
First, a CDS does not pertain only to "risky debt".
Second, a holder of a CDS does not need to hold the underlying debt.
A credit default swap does pertain to only debt. If the lender was not concerned of a default (risky debt) he would see no need for the CDS. Does the bank hold a CDS on your car loan, or did they proper screen you before making the loan?
I didn't say the holder of a CDS was limited to the holder of the underlying debt. In fact many CDS's involve three or more parties. The more players in on the bet, the merrier. . . until 2008 returns. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Yep, the same derivatives that blew up Wall St. in 2008.
But wait, there's more! Citibank has bought $898 Billion in CDSs.
Why do the banks feel they need this much insurance/protection?
So a net $40 billion to protect $2 trillion in assets is excessive?
Again, you fail to see the point. A CDS is insurance against risky debt. Why is a major bank gambling at such risk and whose funds are they using to do so? Keep in mind this is just one bank.
Was CDS exposure excessive in 2008?
I know, you believe it will be different next time, but that's OK, just buy some "Next Time Swaps."
First, a CDS does not pertain only to "risky debt".
Second, a holder of a CDS does not need to hold the underlying debt.
You need to define your own definition of risk. To me, an asset dropping from 1900 to 1000 or from 50 to 13 is quite risky. Or an asset staying at 15 for 10 years is quite risky.
You always talk of "insurance", so you should understand the role of CDS.
Yep, the same derivatives that blew up Wall St. in 2008.
But wait, there's more! Citibank has bought $898 Billion in CDSs.
Why do the banks feel they need this much insurance/protection?
So a net $40 billion to protect $2 trillion in assets is excessive?
Again, you fail to see the point. A CDS is insurance against risky debt. Why is a major bank gambling at such risk and whose funds are they using to do so? Keep in mind this is just one bank.
Was CDS exposure excessive in 2008?
I know, you believe it will be different next time, but that's OK, just buy some "Next Time Swaps."
First, a CDS does not pertain only to "risky debt".
Second, a holder of a CDS does not need to hold the underlying debt.
You need to define your own definition of risk. To me, an asset dropping from 1900 to 1000 or from 50 to 13 is quite risky. Or an asset staying at 15 for 10 years is quite risky.
You always talk of "insurance", so you should understand the role of CDS.
The role of a CDS is to provide protection to a lender in the event of default. Risky debt is defined by the lenders when they feel the need to buy insurance (a CDS) to protect themselves from default. However, the real risk that CDS's pose to the economy comes from all the third parties that get in on the "action" with very large bets. . . bets large enough to bring down the system. Re 2008.
My own definition of risk? There is some risk in any decision. Risk analysis/management is paramount before a decision is implemented. The greater the consequences of a bad decision, the more important the analysis/management. Also, the results of bad decisions should become effective learning tools for not only the bad decision maker, but for others.
Funny you should bring this up. As a quality assurance instructor I wrote and taught a course on risk analysis to industrial production supervisors. So yes, I have a fairly good idea of what risk involves. I'm fully aware of the risk associated with my stack and with my dollars.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
My Home Depot deck screws I have been buying for 10+ years went from $6.66 in 2018 to $9.99 in mid 2019. A whopping 43% increase. Inflation is creeping in.
Gold is our friend.
Cheers
@dpoole said:
There's something unearthly counter-intuitive about amassing trillions of dollars in debt, and not experiencing massive and ruinous inflation. I assume it has much to do with the role of the dollar as the international currency and means (therefore) of geopolitical clout, a role that the Chinese and others are working full bore to change.
Agreed, the dollar is the "least worst" place to currently put large amounts of money. It will be interesting to see if the USD ever tests NIRP...
@metalmeister said:
My Home Depot deck screws I have been buying for 10+ years went from $6.66 in 2018 to $9.99 in mid 2019. A whopping 43% increase. Inflation is creeping in.
Gold is our friend.
Cheers
Golly, you must buy a lot of deck screws for a 50% increase to mean enough to post about?
@metalmeister said:
My Home Depot deck screws I have been buying for 10+ years went from $6.66 in 2018 to $9.99 in mid 2019. A whopping 43% increase. Inflation is creeping in.
Gold is our friend.
Cheers
that's because deck screws are the new duct tape.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@metalmeister said:
My Home Depot deck screws I have been buying for 10+ years went from $6.66 in 2018 to $9.99 in mid 2019. A whopping 43% increase. Inflation is creeping in.
Gold is our friend.
Cheers
Inflation? Nah probably just one of them Chinese tariffs.
@metalmeister said:
My Home Depot deck screws I have been buying for 10+ years went from $6.66 in 2018 to $9.99 in mid 2019. A whopping 43% increase. Inflation is creeping in.
Gold is our friend.
Cheers
that's because deck screws are the new duct tape.
That ain't no kinda answer!
How often are you folks buying duct tape? Tie wraps? Sht like that could go up tenfold and almost everyone would be like, oh well, "good luck charging that much , China!" While we chow down on the half price beef and wheat we used to ship to them.
@metalmeister said:
My Home Depot deck screws I have been buying for 10+ years went from $6.66 in 2018 to $9.99 in mid 2019. A whopping 43% increase. Inflation is creeping in.
Gold is our friend.
Cheers
Golly, you must buy a lot of deck screws for a 50% increase to mean enough to post about?
Are you in the deck building industry?
Construction Business. We use a ton of screws in a variety of applications. Should have mentioned it was $7 for a one pound box last year ,now $10 for a one pound box . The kind the common Joe buys for working around the house. Was $7 for years. Just say'n.
& it is ironic that in Southern California most of the metal furnaces & foundrys have furlowed or permanently closed because they can't make money.
Most all metals in California are being shipped overseas. My next door neighbor has the single largest metal scrap yard in Southern California & told me almost 100% of what he processess goes overseas.
@streeter said:
& it is ironic that in Southern California most of the metal furnaces & foundrys have furlowed or permanently closed because they can't make money.
Most all metals in California are being shipped overseas. My next door neighbor has the single largest metal scrap yard in Southern California & told me almost 100% of what he processess goes overseas.
No one here wants to work in a metals furnace or foundry. No one wants to live anywhere near one, not drive past one, nor invest in one, nor have one anywhere near their actual lives.
Yes, it's ironic that the golden state is not still like it was in 1855.
Baley let me expand on my comment so that even you can better understand my thought.
I was responding to the cost of metal screws although I didn't reference it.
One pound of fabricated metal selling for $10 has about 10cents of metal content in it. Maybe 5cents.
And I don't know where 'here' is for you or even if you've ever been in a metal plant which from the tone of your post shows me that it is unlikely. First of all, just so you know, it is important to the U.S.A. to produce our own metal IN THIS COUNTRY.
You can't take scrap in SoCal & ship it to Alabama to process it.(economically) You process it close to where it is located. It is a lot cheaper to process scrap than iron ore. Maybe I could & should give you econ lessons on this.
California processes scrap & has a LOT of scrap. A local furnace & fabrication facilities or two or three is of a NATIONAL INTEREST. Shipping that steel overseas is not in our NATIONAL INTEREST. First, we no longer own that steel. Second, the labor & profit derived from making those screws goes into the pockets of overseas contractors.
BTW, most furnace activity is automated. & there is no shortage of mildly skilled people who jump at the chance to earn that pay scale. You obviously aren't interested in working at one of these businesses(or living nearby-good for you) but the economic activity that is represented from the scrap mode to the finished screw(or whatever) is substantial. Not every worker or even you can live in Saratoga or Woodside or Bel Air. The worker in that mill might be someone who crosses the border last month or a recently discharged US Service member. The workers up the economic trail of that metal are probably half college educated.
Drive past California Steel. You wouldn't even recognise what was going on. It is not in a residential neighborhood.
Most parts of Downtown skid row L.A. or parts of S.F. or a lot of Oakland are FAR FAR WORSE. California Steel is like a park compared to those holes and the following: Detroit, inner cities of the NE, So. Chicago or for that matter a lot of places. Even the Oil refineries in the Richmond, CA area & vicinity.
If you'd care to discuss this, I won't be available til late or tomorrow. We could title it: from the ditch digger to the white collar office worker-work for the entire economic spectrum.
Respectfully yours,
S, UC Berkeley 1975. Undergrad School of Chemistry. Earl Cheit School of Business 1976.
Baleyville has a yellow brick road and rainbows. It's not subject to the economic laws the rest of us have to live with.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
Baleyville has a yellow brick road and rainbows. It's not subject to the economic laws the rest of us have to live with.
This is precious! 👍
Those who have moved where things are good for them and created a happy reality for their family are delusional morons,
While those who exist in a perpetual, dismal and miserable panic mode are the wise enlightened ones?
After all these years, we're still having the same conversation!
Mr. Baley
California Steel(Brazilian owned) is the name of the former Kaiser Steel. You are too young to remember but they made ALL THE STEEL FOR THE WW2 BOATS THAT LAUNCHED DIRECTLY INTO THE PACIFIC THEATER from the west coast. You may have a memory of their work if you ever drove over the Carquinez Bridge. Out in Suisun Bay the old anchored boats were referred to as 'THE MOTHBALL FLEET'
They also made Kaisers in the 50's when Detroit/GM-Ford couldn't satisfy demand. They also made rolled steel to make panels & frames for the Oakland GM plant, the Van Nuys GM plant & the Ford Long Beach plant. The last Chevy to roll out of the Oakland plant was a 1957. The state needed to split the plant in half to build Hwy 17(now 880) through it. Look carefully and you can see the bricked up walls on both sides of the freeway. Kaiser Steel proceeded to produce the metal for the GM Fremont plant that became NUMMI.
The problem that arises now is when the bids went out for the new bay bridge....the steel came from China. We had no choice. Billions of dollars sent overseas. Some say we will be building a new bay bridge much sooner than expected.
Without Kaiser Steel, we'd be using wooden battleships in WW2 or have fewer cars on the west coast in the 30's through 60's.
BTW, I don't need a new business but thanks for thinking out for me Mr. Yenta. My meals up through Friday are covered. Maybe a little longer if I'm lucky.
I just love to share West Coast history with you. No charge Sir. I too have a lemon tree. And a cara cara orange. I don't want to go into competition with my neighbor. I like him.
The Fed’s balance sheet is currently about $8.5 trillion. Last March it was $4.2 trillion.
The economy is not getting better, it is twice as bad off as it was last March.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@Icollecteverything said:
Looks like the Dow is the big winner from 1978, 43x what it is now,
Might that have something to do with the money that has been printed since then? See above post for a clue.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
People dont even have to work to get money. 'Merica!!
Better yet, when you are a large bank, your losses are socialized while your gains from government bailouts find their way into your own accounts. Sweet!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@HiBucky You may want to delete your post unless you are trying to get yourself banned.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
@HiBucky said:
MESS, IN THE SEWER, WILL GET WORST, DEMS DISTRROYING THE USA,LOSERS RUNNING THE COUNTRY, FREE FOOD, NO WORK, WE WANT FREE MONEY, HOUSING, HEAT, SCHOOL, BABYSITTERS,NO LAWS, NO RESPONSIBILITY, Really when does it stop !!!!!!! oh .... NO COPS ..... 59 Cops Killed for what !!!!!
Comments
The Cold, Hard Facts Which Prove That The Past Decade Was Actually Quite Awful For The U.S. Economy
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The Roaring 20's!!! Probably made more $$$ off my stocks today then what I will get of my metals for the next decade. BOOMIN!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Careful. Only when you sell them. One day you gonna wake up and all those paper gains have gone "poof."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Fear of missing out fueling stock market AND Money managers with no where else to go in LOW interest rate environment.
100% Positive BST transactions
Go Gold™℠® © I did! Poof!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
$1550 right now. Happy in NUGT.
100% Positive BST transactions
There is no question the world economy and financial system are in an unprecedented bubble. If this isn't one, what exactly would be? It's a continuation of the 2000 and 2007 bubble which never ended. Far worse than Japan in 1989 or the US in 1929 because it applies to every major economy.
Lowest aggregate credit standards in the history of civilization worldwide in a desperate search for yield combined with financial intermediaries more interested in meeting or beating their benchmarks versus the safety of their client's money.
A US stock market bubble matched only by 2000 which is a total outlier versus practically every other index of any consequence elsewhere. Most foreign markets either peaked around 2007 or even 1999/2000. And it isn't just because of differences in economic "growth" either. I don't believe reported Chinese data but the Shanghai index is off about 50% from it's 2007 high as an example.
Real estate bubbles in numerous cities worldwide which have surpassed the last one from 2006-2007.
US economic growth substantially if not entirely the result of increases in US federal government spending. If the annual increase in outstanding public debt was the same as pre-2008, economic growth since 2009 would be close to zero or even negative much or most of the time. It's taken $11 trillion of incremental government debt and near zero Fed funds for 11 years running to generate about 2.5% growth in this pathetic economic expansion.
I call it pathetic because, while corporate profits have increased noticeably (though flat versus 2014 according to one source I read) and official unemployment is at multi-decade lows, most people are either broke or one bear market and job loss from a noticeable decline or crash landing in their standard of living.
Perpetually increasing debt does not equal wealth. It's a "smoke and mirrors" economy since 2009 (at minimum) from a combination of absurdly lax credit standards and artificially distorted interest rates. "Normalize" federal spending and interest rates and today's narrow and shallow prosperity in the US would vanish.
Citibank has sold $858 Billion in credit default swaps
Yep, the same derivatives that blew up Wall St. in 2008.
But wait, there's more! Citibank has bought $898 Billion in CDSs.
Why do the banks feel they need this much insurance/protection? Stackers know the answer, do you?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Seems that homelessness is increasing. Maybe it is the same and just getting more coverage.
California is the mecca for street people. I guess rental rates are out of reach for many low income workers.
For me currently it sucks but for others it is same as it was yesterday. So slow and steady we go. Hoping 2020 brings me better news then 2019 ended.
Metal markets always keep us balanced if you ignore all else.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
So a net $40 billion to protect $2 trillion in assets is excessive?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Again, you fail to see the point. A CDS is insurance against risky debt. Why is a major bank gambling at such risk and whose funds are they using to do so? Keep in mind this is just one bank.
Was CDS exposure excessive in 2008?
I know, you believe it will be different next time, but that's OK, just buy some "Next Time Swaps."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
double post
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
triple post.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Is the U.S. economy slowing down? Yes. I think we are dancing in a mine field. Some corporation will hit the debt mine and go poof (insolvent). Then it will depend on who that company owed how much money to. Will one bankruptcy cause a contagion, most likely not. When, where I don't know. So long as jobs remain available the economy will stay "good."
I keep thinking the devaluation of the U.S. dollar will cause inflation, but I have been wrong for years now so doubts have crept in.
There's something unearthly counter-intuitive about amassing trillions of dollars in debt, and not experiencing massive and ruinous inflation. I assume it has much to do with the role of the dollar as the international currency and means (therefore) of geopolitical clout, a role that the Chinese and others are working full bore to change.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
First, a CDS does not pertain only to "risky debt".
Second, a holder of a CDS does not need to hold the underlying debt.
Third, I've stated a hundred times on this forum that i believe every time is the same or that no time is different.
Forth, ask the bank why they do what they do, or you can play with misinformed conjecture.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A credit default swap does pertain to only debt. If the lender was not concerned of a default (risky debt) he would see no need for the CDS. Does the bank hold a CDS on your car loan, or did they proper screen you before making the loan?
I didn't say the holder of a CDS was limited to the holder of the underlying debt. In fact many CDS's involve three or more parties. The more players in on the bet, the merrier. . . until 2008 returns. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
You keep saying "risky debt".
You need to define your own definition of risk. To me, an asset dropping from 1900 to 1000 or from 50 to 13 is quite risky. Or an asset staying at 15 for 10 years is quite risky.
You always talk of "insurance", so you should understand the role of CDS.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The role of a CDS is to provide protection to a lender in the event of default. Risky debt is defined by the lenders when they feel the need to buy insurance (a CDS) to protect themselves from default. However, the real risk that CDS's pose to the economy comes from all the third parties that get in on the "action" with very large bets. . . bets large enough to bring down the system. Re 2008.
My own definition of risk? There is some risk in any decision. Risk analysis/management is paramount before a decision is implemented. The greater the consequences of a bad decision, the more important the analysis/management. Also, the results of bad decisions should become effective learning tools for not only the bad decision maker, but for others.
Funny you should bring this up. As a quality assurance instructor I wrote and taught a course on risk analysis to industrial production supervisors. So yes, I have a fairly good idea of what risk involves. I'm fully aware of the risk associated with my stack and with my dollars.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Here's 🍻🥂 to another big economic Selection Event🍹🍸 during ongoing series of Punctuated Equilibrium. 🥃🍺
Chips are placed, spin that wheel, big daddies! 🍾🍷
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
My Home Depot deck screws I have been buying for 10+ years went from $6.66 in 2018 to $9.99 in mid 2019. A whopping 43% increase. Inflation is creeping in.
Gold is our friend.
Cheers
100% Positive BST transactions
Agreed, the dollar is the "least worst" place to currently put large amounts of money. It will be interesting to see if the USD ever tests NIRP...
Golly, you must buy a lot of deck screws for a 50% increase to mean enough to post about?
Are you in the deck building industry?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
that's because deck screws are the new duct tape.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Inflation? Nah probably just one of them Chinese tariffs.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
That ain't no kinda answer!
How often are you folks buying duct tape? Tie wraps? Sht like that could go up tenfold and almost everyone would be like, oh well, "good luck charging that much , China!" While we chow down on the half price beef and wheat we used to ship to them.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Construction Business. We use a ton of screws in a variety of applications. Should have mentioned it was $7 for a one pound box last year ,now $10 for a one pound box . The kind the common Joe buys for working around the house. Was $7 for years. Just say'n.
100% Positive BST transactions
Stagflation 1q2020, downturn 2q2020
Lemons and oranges cost $0.00 each in Baleyville.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
& it is ironic that in Southern California most of the metal furnaces & foundrys have furlowed or permanently closed because they can't make money.
Most all metals in California are being shipped overseas. My next door neighbor has the single largest metal scrap yard in Southern California & told me almost 100% of what he processess goes overseas.
No one here wants to work in a metals furnace or foundry. No one wants to live anywhere near one, not drive past one, nor invest in one, nor have one anywhere near their actual lives.
Yes, it's ironic that the golden state is not still like it was in 1855.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Baley let me expand on my comment so that even you can better understand my thought.
I was responding to the cost of metal screws although I didn't reference it.
One pound of fabricated metal selling for $10 has about 10cents of metal content in it. Maybe 5cents.
And I don't know where 'here' is for you or even if you've ever been in a metal plant which from the tone of your post shows me that it is unlikely. First of all, just so you know, it is important to the U.S.A. to produce our own metal IN THIS COUNTRY.
You can't take scrap in SoCal & ship it to Alabama to process it.(economically) You process it close to where it is located. It is a lot cheaper to process scrap than iron ore. Maybe I could & should give you econ lessons on this.
California processes scrap & has a LOT of scrap. A local furnace & fabrication facilities or two or three is of a NATIONAL INTEREST. Shipping that steel overseas is not in our NATIONAL INTEREST. First, we no longer own that steel. Second, the labor & profit derived from making those screws goes into the pockets of overseas contractors.
BTW, most furnace activity is automated. & there is no shortage of mildly skilled people who jump at the chance to earn that pay scale. You obviously aren't interested in working at one of these businesses(or living nearby-good for you) but the economic activity that is represented from the scrap mode to the finished screw(or whatever) is substantial. Not every worker or even you can live in Saratoga or Woodside or Bel Air. The worker in that mill might be someone who crosses the border last month or a recently discharged US Service member. The workers up the economic trail of that metal are probably half college educated.
Drive past California Steel. You wouldn't even recognise what was going on. It is not in a residential neighborhood.
Most parts of Downtown skid row L.A. or parts of S.F. or a lot of Oakland are FAR FAR WORSE. California Steel is like a park compared to those holes and the following: Detroit, inner cities of the NE, So. Chicago or for that matter a lot of places. Even the Oil refineries in the Richmond, CA area & vicinity.
If you'd care to discuss this, I won't be available til late or tomorrow. We could title it: from the ditch digger to the white collar office worker-work for the entire economic spectrum.
Respectfully yours,
S, UC Berkeley 1975. Undergrad School of Chemistry. Earl Cheit School of Business 1976.
Baleyville has a yellow brick road and rainbows. It's not subject to the economic laws the rest of us have to live with.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
So start a successful scrapery business!
Make California steel, why not?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Berkeley...early 70s. That explains a lot.
Im gonna get the popcorn started.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This is precious! 👍
Those who have moved where things are good for them and created a happy reality for their family are delusional morons,
While those who exist in a perpetual, dismal and miserable panic mode are the wise enlightened ones?
After all these years, we're still having the same conversation!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Well Baley, perception is fact. Ya aint never gonna reason with that.
Lol
Even after almost 16 years on this forum i still havent heard it all.
Man i love this place!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Mr. Baley
California Steel(Brazilian owned) is the name of the former Kaiser Steel. You are too young to remember but they made ALL THE STEEL FOR THE WW2 BOATS THAT LAUNCHED DIRECTLY INTO THE PACIFIC THEATER from the west coast. You may have a memory of their work if you ever drove over the Carquinez Bridge. Out in Suisun Bay the old anchored boats were referred to as 'THE MOTHBALL FLEET'
They also made Kaisers in the 50's when Detroit/GM-Ford couldn't satisfy demand. They also made rolled steel to make panels & frames for the Oakland GM plant, the Van Nuys GM plant & the Ford Long Beach plant. The last Chevy to roll out of the Oakland plant was a 1957. The state needed to split the plant in half to build Hwy 17(now 880) through it. Look carefully and you can see the bricked up walls on both sides of the freeway. Kaiser Steel proceeded to produce the metal for the GM Fremont plant that became NUMMI.
The problem that arises now is when the bids went out for the new bay bridge....the steel came from China. We had no choice. Billions of dollars sent overseas. Some say we will be building a new bay bridge much sooner than expected.
Without Kaiser Steel, we'd be using wooden battleships in WW2 or have fewer cars on the west coast in the 30's through 60's.
BTW, I don't need a new business but thanks for thinking out for me Mr. Yenta. My meals up through Friday are covered. Maybe a little longer if I'm lucky.
I just love to share West Coast history with you. No charge Sir. I too have a lemon tree. And a cara cara orange. I don't want to go into competition with my neighbor. I like him.
Possibly the best thing on this thread:
Well, whats your current view of the economy?
Prices higher for things in short supply and lower for things in excess?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
We have millions of new inhabitants. They'll pick Bailey's fruit for him and they might even shine cohodks shoes, for less.
Currently? BOOMIN! RGDS!!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Looks like the Dow is the big winner from 1978, 43x what it is now,
Successful BST deals with mustangt and jesbroken. Now EVERYTHING is for sale.
Contagion!
The Fed’s balance sheet is currently about $8.5 trillion. Last March it was $4.2 trillion.
The economy is not getting better, it is twice as bad off as it was last March.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Might that have something to do with the money that has been printed since then? See above post for a clue.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
What you talking about? People dont even have to work to get money. 'Merica!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
People dont even have to work to get money. 'Merica!!
Better yet, when you are a large bank, your losses are socialized while your gains from government bailouts find their way into your own accounts. Sweet!
I knew it would happen.
@HiBucky You may want to delete your post unless you are trying to get yourself banned.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
He calls it as he sees it.