I, too, am just treading water....not buying and not selling any stocks. But, my perspective says that the pundits that are saying recession are focusing too much on Europe and it's troubles. Finland is broke and the gov has collapsed and many other countries are not far behind...Universal healthcare can bankrupt a country as it has Finland. There are others in bad shape (not just Greece needs bailing out). This worries investors that put money in "worldwide" companies....But, should not affect our stock market or economy by much. We seem to be on firm ground at the moment.
bob
Registry: CC lowballs (boblindstrom), bobinvegas1989@yahoo.com
"Finland is broke and the gov has collapsed....Universal healthcare can bankrupt a country as it has Finland."
So much for being the happiest people on earth.
Well if you have no money, you don't have to worry about losing it. "Mo' money, mo' problems". That means the Gov't of Finland doesn't have problems, right?
I'm sure Finland's problems won't be blamed on Socialism as usual. Same with Venezuela.
@NIPSZX said:
Best economy in all of history! The markets are up 300% since the '09 bottom.... Plus main street is booming with new packed up restaurants being advertised by Siri..... Plus houses at the highest levels in history!!! Plus oil and gas are still dirt cheap! Amazing!
Repeat of 2007. LOL
Right now the DoW is up 1400% since 1985... That's including your so called big crash of '08.... Try putting your money where your mouth is.... Even if we crash to 100 in the DoW, we will still be massively higher in 2040... You try to time the crash.... Have fun.
@cohodk said:
Ribeyes are $7.99/lb at my local grocer. Do we have an excess of beef? China not buying? If so, then im happy. Yum yum.
Are you forgetting about the lobster? Boy.. our plan of world domination backfired. We ended up victimized ourselves with overweight and high cholesterol.
@NIPSZX said:
Best economy in all of history! The markets are up 300% since the '09 bottom.... Plus main street is booming with new packed up restaurants being advertised by Siri..... Plus houses at the highest levels in history!!! Plus oil and gas are still dirt cheap! Amazing!
Repeat of 2007. LOL
Right now the DoW is up 1400% since 1985... That's including your so called big crash of '08.... Try putting your money where your mouth is.... Even if we crash to 100 in the DoW, we will still be massively higher in 2040... You try to time the crash.... Have fun.
The Greatest Generation (that survived the Great Depression and fought and won our freedom from tyranny in WWII) gave way to the Greediest Generations (Baby Boomers and Gen X). We have milked the USD for several decades now and will park interest rates at historic lows as long as we can milk our cash cow USD.
Your prediction of a "massively higher DOW in 2040" might well prove to be true. 2040 is around the tipping point where we'll be over $50 trillion in Federal Debt alone and running $2 trillion+/year deficits. History will not be kind. The Goose that lays the Golden eggs is being slow cooked in a crockpot of this generations making.
@NIPSZX said:
Best economy in all of history! The markets are up 300% since the '09 bottom.... Plus main street is booming with new packed up restaurants being advertised by Siri..... Plus houses at the highest levels in history!!! Plus oil and gas are still dirt cheap! Amazing!
Repeat of 2007. LOL
Right now the DoW is up 1400% since 1985... That's including your so called big crash of '08.... Try putting your money where your mouth is.... Even if we crash to 100 in the DoW, we will still be massively higher in 2040... You try to time the crash.... Have fun.
The Greatest Generation (that survived the Great Depression and fought and won our freedom from tyranny in WWII) gave way to the Greediest Generations (Baby Boomers and Gen X). We have milked the USD for several decades now and will park interest rates at historic lows as long as we can milk our cash cow USD.
Your prediction of a "massively higher DOW in 2040" might well prove to be true. 2040 is around the tipping point where we'll be over $50 trillion in Federal Debt alone and running $2 trillion+/year deficits. History will not be kind. The Goose that lays the Golden eggs is being slow cooked in a crockpot of this generations making.
That's why the Fed's motto is "extend and pretend." The elite aren't here to care about the future. They just rely on kicking the can down the road and making new policies that try to fix and put a band aid on all the earlier years of wounds. People don't realize that depressions only happen every 77 years. People like to dwell on the negative because the media conditions people with constant scare tactics. BTW, the weather channel always runs the worst hurricane stories during this month. Humans are a sucker for click bait scare tactics. Until we change our traditions into shunning scare tactics instead of clicking on them, we will be stuck in the same place. The legal system holds the scam scare tactics in place because the media is forced by lawsuits to predict the worst just in case. That is why American's can never appreciate massive growth or good news.
The strength of the dollar and the amassing of eye-watering debt (with apparently now widely-believed impunity), have altogether to do with the world's trust in the U.S. economy and in our reliably playing by the rules. The feckless and casual erosion of that trust (fostered by our current policies and sharpened by our adversaries) is ultimately what threatens us the most.
@dpoole said:
The strength of the dollar and the amassing of eye-watering debt (with apparently now widely-believed impunity), have altogether to do with the world's trust in the U.S. economy and in our reliably playing by the rules. The feckless and casual erosion of that trust (fostered by our current policies and sharpened by our adversaries) is ultimately what threatens us the most.
I agree 100%, however, when all other competitors are also doing the same exact thing with debt, interest rates and devaluing currency (China, EU, Japan etc.) it dilutes the issue. When a new competitor comes along, then the US and the dollar are in trouble. Until then, we are the "least worse" option.
When a new competitor comes along, then the US and the dollar are in trouble. Until then, we are the "least worse" option.
Naw, the least worst option is still unsustainable regardless of how bad the other options are. The pension and retirement funds are going to fail, and people will suffer for it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
maybe more people will buy American made stuff, because Chinese stuff will be very expensive with the new tariff. maybe it might even bring back u.s. factories from China also. bring the manufacturing jobs back home where they belong
For 250 weeks (since the end of QE) the FED purchased no US Treasury debt and even unloaded some. For the past two weeks the FED has been buying again, $14 billion so far. Long live QE!
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
@derryb said:
For 250 weeks (since the end of QE) the FED purchased no US Treasury debt and even unloaded some. For the past two weeks the FED has been buying again, $14 billion so far. Long live QE!
@derryb said:
For 250 weeks (since the end of QE) the FED purchased no US Treasury debt and even unloaded some. For the past two weeks the FED has been buying again, $14 billion so far. Long live QE!
New York Fed Lays Out Projections for Future of Fed Holdings
Central bank’s holdings of assets and bonds could again increase sometime between later this year and 2025
By Michael S. Derby
Sept. 3, 2019 3:30 pm ET
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which has recently stopped shrinking, may once again start growing later this year, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Tuesday.
The potential expansion of the Fed’s holdings of assets and bonds, which now stand at $3.8 billion, would be technical, and wouldn’t signal a change in the central bank’s view on the economic outlook.
New York Fed Lays Out Projections for Future of Fed Holdings
Central bank’s holdings of assets and bonds could again increase sometime between later this year and 2025
By Michael S. Derby
Sept. 3, 2019 3:30 pm ET
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which has recently stopped shrinking, may once again start growing later this year, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Tuesday.
The potential expansion of the Fed’s holdings of assets and bonds, which now stand at $3.8 billion, would be technical, and wouldn’t signal a change in the central bank’s view on the economic outlook.
Typical FEDspeak.
Translation: FED buys the treasuries that couldn't be sold elsewhere. FED's balance sheet increases are a direct reflection on it's "view on the economic outlook."
There is only one reason why the FED is involved at all in "open market operations:" to control and influence markets. It's purchases are done as a buyer of last resort.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
@coinpalice said:
maybe more people will buy American made stuff, because Chinese stuff will be very expensive with the new tariff. maybe it might even bring back u.s. factories from China also. bring the manufacturing jobs back home where they belong
I don't believe the manufacturing of the garbage China makes will come back to the US for a few reasons:
China is devaluing their currency, so they're trying to offset the tariffs on their goods. That will help them stay price competitive.
Companies are moving their manufacturing operations to other low cost locations that are not impacted by tariffs: India, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia and Philippines.
The regulations in the US are barriers to re-entry. One of the main reasons why the vast majority of manufacturing is done in that part of the world is that there are few to no environmental/worker regulations.
As I recall, back in 2008 the Fed poofed enough money into existence so that numerous failed banks due to mismanagement of their failed derivatives contracts could be reconstituted with zero consequences for the managements involved.
Back to our discussion about Treasuries. Where did the money come from that enabled the Fed to bail out all those failed banks? Did Bernanke, Blankfein, Dudley and Geitner all chip in with money out of their own pockets?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I should have said that in this particular case the Fed is not the buyer of last resort and won't be until another financial crisis.
I have said in many threads QE money and asset purchase money was keystroked into existence.
Now that the precedent has been set, it could happen again, but it isn't so in the above $14 billion case. They always had real cash from member banks to do OMO. Before the financial crisis the balance sheet was over 1 T in assets.
@coinpalice said:
maybe more people will buy American made stuff, because Chinese stuff will be very expensive with the new tariff. maybe it might even bring back u.s. factories from China also. bring the manufacturing jobs back home where they belong
I think that was the plan and would be outstanding I just wonder if it is a little to late, if this would of been addressed a few presidents ago and many companies ago it might of worked. Across from one of my shops a man had a crating business and he was crating equipment for companies leaving the USA lets say he was very busy the last 12 years. When it comes to the government we spare no expense he showed me a crate that was built to move a piece of machinery to a base in Texas cost was $19,000 and 15 inspections for one create. The special Government bolts were only $85 for one bolt I wonder who's son had the nuts and bolts contact.
Back to our discussion about Treasuries. Where did the money come from that enabled the Fed to bail out all those failed banks? Did Bernanke, Blankfein, Dudley and Geitner all chip in with money out of their own pockets?
Well, Buffett did chip in $5 billion. The rest was chipped in by the US taxpayer, who has reaped a $100 billion profit.
Back to our discussion about Treasuries. Where did the money come from that enabled the Fed to bail out all those failed banks? Did Bernanke, Blankfein, Dudley and Geitner all chip in with money out of their own pockets?
Well, Buffett did chip in $5 billion. The rest was chipped in by the US taxpayer, who has reaped a $100 billion profit.
Your link is just a portion of the bailout and covers the $700 billion in spending authorized by congress. In reality, The US loaned out $3.3 Trillion in bailout money. Did we get all of that back?
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Back to our discussion about Treasuries. Where did the money come from that enabled the Fed to bail out all those failed banks? Did Bernanke, Blankfein, Dudley and Geitner all chip in with money out of their own pockets?
Well, Buffett did chip in $5 billion. The rest was chipped in by the US taxpayer, who has reaped a $100 billion profit.
Your link is just a portion of the bailout and covers the $700 billion in spending authorized by congress. In reality, The US loaned out $3.3 Trillion in bailout money. Did we get all of that back?
Id like to see these said documents, but it does appear from your link that even if that is an accurate number--for which i have strong reservations--the monies were indeed paid back.
Suppose i borrow $10 from you in the morning and pay it back at the end of the day, every day, for a year. Did i borrow $10, or $3650?
Back to our discussion about Treasuries. Where did the money come from that enabled the Fed to bail out all those failed banks? Did Bernanke, Blankfein, Dudley and Geitner all chip in with money out of their own pockets?
Well, Buffett did chip in $5 billion. The rest was chipped in by the US taxpayer, who has reaped a $100 billion profit.
Your link is just a portion of the bailout and covers the $700 billion in spending authorized by congress. In reality, The US loaned out $3.3 Trillion in bailout money. Did we get all of that back?
My assessment: you can look at what is right in front of you, or you can try to read all of the tea leaves and "expert" opinions and then mentally create an economic picture that others have crafted for you.
We are in the greatest, most expansive, most prosperous time in the history of the world. Is there a lot of debt? Yes. Are there trade imbalances? Yes. Is there this that and the other? Yes. Will there be economic pain, suffering and loss for many in the near present and near future?" Yes.
The fact remains - we are in the most prosperous time in the history of the world. What you do with it is up to you. Don't make excuses, find scapegoats, use rationales. Work to earn, save diligently, invest wisely and be kind and generous with others. You will prosper. I promise that.
Back to our discussion about Treasuries. Where did the money come from that enabled the Fed to bail out all those failed banks? Did Bernanke, Blankfein, Dudley and Geitner all chip in with money out of their own pockets?
Well, Buffett did chip in $5 billion. The rest was chipped in by the US taxpayer, who has reaped a $100 billion profit.
Your link is just a portion of the bailout and covers the $700 billion in spending authorized by congress. In reality, The US loaned out $3.3 Trillion in bailout money. Did we get all of that back?
Comments
Warren Buffett sees what's true
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I, too, am just treading water....not buying and not selling any stocks. But, my perspective says that the pundits that are saying recession are focusing too much on Europe and it's troubles. Finland is broke and the gov has collapsed and many other countries are not far behind...Universal healthcare can bankrupt a country as it has Finland. There are others in bad shape (not just Greece needs bailing out). This worries investors that put money in "worldwide" companies....But, should not affect our stock market or economy by much. We seem to be on firm ground at the moment.
bob
"Finland is broke and the gov has collapsed....Universal healthcare can bankrupt a country as it has Finland."
So much for being the happiest people on earth.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Well if you have no money, you don't have to worry about losing it. "Mo' money, mo' problems". That means the Gov't of Finland doesn't have problems, right?
I'm sure Finland's problems won't be blamed on Socialism as usual. Same with Venezuela.
The truth he is showing os that dollars have value and its worth hoarding them.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
only because everything besides PMs is going to $hit, as predicted. Remember, you were warned. LOL
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Another dire warning from derryb. 🧚♂️🧚♀️
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm scared of those hands...
.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Wow! Who knew?
Every single thing?
Golly!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
(derrybs arent made of gold, hehe)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Come to think of it, neither is silver..
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
And when doesn’t buffet sit on a big ole pile of cash??
Opportunity reserves are not out of fashion, ever.....
Ribeyes are $7.99/lb at my local grocer. Do we have an excess of beef? China not buying? If so, then im happy. Yum yum.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Your savings on beef will be taken in taxes to support the unemployed ranchers. Everything has a cost.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Right now the DoW is up 1400% since 1985... That's including your so called big crash of '08.... Try putting your money where your mouth is.... Even if we crash to 100 in the DoW, we will still be massively higher in 2040... You try to time the crash.... Have fun.
China's gonna pay for the tariffs. Our Prez said so.🤪
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Are you forgetting about the lobster? Boy.. our plan of world domination backfired. We ended up victimized ourselves with overweight and high cholesterol.
$4.99 in Baleyville this week..
Beautiful thick marbly ones too, almost 2 lbs each...
Pictures to follow
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The Greatest Generation (that survived the Great Depression and fought and won our freedom from tyranny in WWII) gave way to the Greediest Generations (Baby Boomers and Gen X). We have milked the USD for several decades now and will park interest rates at historic lows as long as we can milk our cash cow USD.
Your prediction of a "massively higher DOW in 2040" might well prove to be true. 2040 is around the tipping point where we'll be over $50 trillion in Federal Debt alone and running $2 trillion+/year deficits. History will not be kind. The Goose that lays the Golden eggs is being slow cooked in a crockpot of this generations making.
That's why the Fed's motto is "extend and pretend." The elite aren't here to care about the future. They just rely on kicking the can down the road and making new policies that try to fix and put a band aid on all the earlier years of wounds. People don't realize that depressions only happen every 77 years. People like to dwell on the negative because the media conditions people with constant scare tactics. BTW, the weather channel always runs the worst hurricane stories during this month. Humans are a sucker for click bait scare tactics. Until we change our traditions into shunning scare tactics instead of clicking on them, we will be stuck in the same place. The legal system holds the scam scare tactics in place because the media is forced by lawsuits to predict the worst just in case. That is why American's can never appreciate massive growth or good news.
The properly crafted threads are timeless.
The strength of the dollar and the amassing of eye-watering debt (with apparently now widely-believed impunity), have altogether to do with the world's trust in the U.S. economy and in our reliably playing by the rules. The feckless and casual erosion of that trust (fostered by our current policies and sharpened by our adversaries) is ultimately what threatens us the most.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
**
**
I agree 100%, however, when all other competitors are also doing the same exact thing with debt, interest rates and devaluing currency (China, EU, Japan etc.) it dilutes the issue. When a new competitor comes along, then the US and the dollar are in trouble. Until then, we are the "least worse" option.
When a new competitor comes along, then the US and the dollar are in trouble. Until then, we are the "least worse" option.
Naw, the least worst option is still unsustainable regardless of how bad the other options are. The pension and retirement funds are going to fail, and people will suffer for it.
I knew it would happen.
It's a house of cards.
maybe more people will buy American made stuff, because Chinese stuff will be very expensive with the new tariff. maybe it might even bring back u.s. factories from China also. bring the manufacturing jobs back home where they belong
For 250 weeks (since the end of QE) the FED purchased no US Treasury debt and even unloaded some. For the past two weeks the FED has been buying again, $14 billion so far. Long live QE!
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
have a link that isn't seeking alpha?
linky
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
this doesn't read like QE, just open market operations.
then there are the conspiracy theories that I don't subscribe to.
someone with WSJ access will need to post the full article.
here is a news article blurb on google news:
New York Fed Lays Out Projections for Future of Fed Holdings
The Fed's bond purchases would add to what is called the System Open Market
Account.
The Fed's bond-buying “will have the same purpose as pre-financial-crisis
purchases of Treasury securities—expanding the size of the SOMA ...
here is the article link:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-fed-lays-out-projections-for-future-of-fed-holdings-11567539055
New York Fed Lays Out Projections for Future of Fed Holdings
Central bank’s holdings of assets and bonds could again increase sometime between later this year and 2025
By Michael S. Derby
Sept. 3, 2019 3:30 pm ET
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which has recently stopped shrinking, may once again start growing later this year, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Tuesday.
The potential expansion of the Fed’s holdings of assets and bonds, which now stand at $3.8 billion, would be technical, and wouldn’t signal a change in the central bank’s view on the economic outlook.
Typical FEDspeak.
Translation: FED buys the treasuries that couldn't be sold elsewhere. FED's balance sheet increases are a direct reflection on it's "view on the economic outlook."
There is only one reason why the FED is involved at all in "open market operations:" to control and influence markets. It's purchases are done as a buyer of last resort.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
https://www.stlouisfed.org/in-plain-english/a-closer-look-at-open-market-operations
Influencer of interest rates - yes
Buyer of last resort - no
I don't believe the manufacturing of the garbage China makes will come back to the US for a few reasons:
The Ugly Truth About The Trade War (liar's poker)
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Buyer of last resort - no
As I recall, back in 2008 the Fed poofed enough money into existence so that numerous failed banks due to mismanagement of their failed derivatives contracts could be reconstituted with zero consequences for the managements involved.
Back to our discussion about Treasuries. Where did the money come from that enabled the Fed to bail out all those failed banks? Did Bernanke, Blankfein, Dudley and Geitner all chip in with money out of their own pockets?
I knew it would happen.
I should have said that in this particular case the Fed is not the buyer of last resort and won't be until another financial crisis.
I have said in many threads QE money and asset purchase money was keystroked into existence.
Now that the precedent has been set, it could happen again, but it isn't so in the above $14 billion case. They always had real cash from member banks to do OMO. Before the financial crisis the balance sheet was over 1 T in assets.
I love a perfect marbled juicy Ribeye and for $7.99 would like them even more
I think that was the plan and would be outstanding I just wonder if it is a little to late, if this would of been addressed a few presidents ago and many companies ago it might of worked. Across from one of my shops a man had a crating business and he was crating equipment for companies leaving the USA lets say he was very busy the last 12 years. When it comes to the government we spare no expense he showed me a crate that was built to move a piece of machinery to a base in Texas cost was $19,000 and 15 inspections for one create. The special Government bolts were only $85 for one bolt I wonder who's son had the nuts and bolts contact.
Well, Buffett did chip in $5 billion. The rest was chipped in by the US taxpayer, who has reaped a $100 billion profit.
https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Your link is just a portion of the bailout and covers the $700 billion in spending authorized by congress. In reality, The US loaned out $3.3 Trillion in bailout money. Did we get all of that back?
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Id like to see these said documents, but it does appear from your link that even if that is an accurate number--for which i have strong reservations--the monies were indeed paid back.
Suppose i borrow $10 from you in the morning and pay it back at the end of the day, every day, for a year. Did i borrow $10, or $3650?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Have at it
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
My assessment: you can look at what is right in front of you, or you can try to read all of the tea leaves and "expert" opinions and then mentally create an economic picture that others have crafted for you.
We are in the greatest, most expansive, most prosperous time in the history of the world. Is there a lot of debt? Yes. Are there trade imbalances? Yes. Is there this that and the other? Yes. Will there be economic pain, suffering and loss for many in the near present and near future?" Yes.
The fact remains - we are in the most prosperous time in the history of the world. What you do with it is up to you. Don't make excuses, find scapegoats, use rationales. Work to earn, save diligently, invest wisely and be kind and generous with others. You will prosper. I promise that.
if you cant save from your pay check its hard, food, gas. lights. kids wife .school. food.
Yes....and ive answered these $3.3 trillion claims in my question above.
That 3.3 trillion number is another conspiracy theory used to influence those who wish to be influenced.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear