@dbtunr said:
with the disolving of the White House economic councils, it looks like business leaders are moving away from Trump. This puts his ability to reform taxes, healthcare, and get an infrastructure deal in jeopardy. Stock market down hard today. I am mostly in cash.
Jobs do appear "easy" to get but getting a pay raise does not seem easy. the economy also is very local. Here is an excellent map I found on Marketwatch today
The GDP numbers from our "largest" states: If independent countries California, Texas & NY would be 7th, 12th & 14th largest economies in the world. D.C. at $109B is a bit deceiving don't you think?
The old "keep making the same mistakes and expecting a different outcome" comes to mind. While many of the steps to ensure economic disruption are returning/have never dealt with, limiting depositors access to their money will likely once again be the unheard starter's pistol.
As noted by this respected economist advanced economies are still overly reliant on liquidity and leverage.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@gsa1fan said:
Well I'm gonna stop and smell the roses every morning I got time left. I think we should all put our efforts(brain power) to opportunities than dwelling on "matters" we cannot control. I recon I been setting in neutral to long.
Rest in peace gsa1fan. We miss you. Glad you spent your final days counting your many blessings.
This thread brought back so many memories of the past 4 years, thank you cohodk for reviving it, and for the warm greetings!
I've been so busy, and havent had much new to say, 19999 posts seemed like a good place to pause for a while...
But now it looks like the new job will afford more "captive time" (aka desk and airplane hours) and might have time to comment more often.
For this thread, any news out there? How are folks earnings and investments performing? What lies ahead IYO??
Home Depot is one of my favorite companies and they own that part of the US retail market. They do well in a booming economy and they do well in a falling economy. They issue a pretty nice dividend as well
New England is slowly dying (that's where I'm located). Taxes, regulation and high costs of living is slowly eating away at the population and many of us are getting sick of it. To give you some statistics, Connecticut has had a population growth of 0% or a paltry increase population of 58,000 people since 2009 . Trust me, its not millionaires and billionaires moving here. North Carolina, Texas, Colorado etc look better and better each day.
Companies around me are doing well earnings wise, however, they are actively trimming workforces: Aetna, Cigna, Travelers and Prudential have all laid off 200+ each in Q2 in CT.... cheaper to automate and/or outsource jobs to India or other lower cost of living states
@ShadyDave said:
Home Depot is one of my favorite companies and they own that part of the US retail market. They do well in a booming economy and they do well in a falling economy. They issue a pretty nice dividend as well
New England is slowly dying (that's where I'm located). Taxes, regulation and high costs of living is slowly eating away at the population and many of us are getting sick of it. To give you some statistics, Connecticut has had a population growth of 0% or a paltry increase population of 58,000 people since 2009 . Trust me, its not millionaires and billionaires moving here. North Carolina, Texas, Colorado etc look better and better each day.
Companies around me are doing well earnings wise, however, they are actively trimming workforces: Aetna, Cigna, Travelers and Prudential have all laid off 200+ each in Q2 in CT.... cheaper to automate and/or outsource jobs to India or other lower cost of living states
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@MsMorrisine said:
I also see a lot of commercial property
Many areas have too many physical storefronts, especially when the store can be moved into folks' living rooms. Vacancies have little bearing on the economy as previous cycles.
Its a lot more than retirees that are moving. A lot of my friends (I'm 30) have left CT after college to either go to cities to find more job opportunities or moving to lower cost of living areas. If my wife and I weren't close with our families we would have been gone 4 years ago. CT will only be getting worse over the next 10 years due to the unfunded pensions:
QE Corp buybacks and Fed always play parts in the cycling. Debt creates a constant need to turnover. Stick to balancing your investment keep your mind relevant and keep you money accessible while you age out. I’m not concerned at this point but always have knowledge of your industry and the true valuations of your investment. Fed terms are 2% net due never.
Smoke and mirrors, glass is always half full, and most unlikely best case scenario is reason to buy into market....BTFD...support propaganda if you love your country...or else... or else...
They must have wandered pretty far? Or the daytime is mucher longer than you thought?
yep, the FED threw QE dollars on the ground to lead them away, but they know the way home.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Extend and pretend, forever and ever, just like we always have."
The economy is always better in the future when compared to the past. You can see the results in the stock market and in asset prices. We are 300% better than we were in '08-'09. We went from 7k in the DOW to 25k, roughly. You also have to factor time into the equation. We were only in the Great Recession for 1 year. We have been expanding for 10+ years. That is what people don't understand. Even the Great Depression didn't last long when compared to the boom times. It is always a 10/1 minimum, at least.
Even if the DOW went back down to 7000, which is theoretically impossible due to the creation of the Fed and what they stand for, we would only be where we were 10 years ago. And that is an impossible example that has never happened in all of history. People say they don't like debt, but they freak out when the market goes down 0.5%. It is hilarious and it actually is a protection mechanism built in, so that the system always goes up and never goes down, while Americans remain unhappy and ungrateful. Buy at least one index fund and make a deal with yourself to hold it for your entire life just for fun and you will learn. It is that simple. It's a guaranteed no lose situation. Give it to your kids and explain what you have learned. Don't talk about the purchasing power of the sale in the future. And please don't bring up the Nikkei. My grandfather bought it at 100 in 1950. You snooze, you lose!
Markets go up and down and are all cyclical. Some are correlated and some are counter-correlated (move in similar directions at the same time, or move mostly opposite at the same time... stocks and bonds tend to move in similar directions, with bond cycles leading stock cycles by about 9-18 months with about 87% correlation, and commodities tend to move opposite of stocks). With that said; individuals, corporations, governments, political parties, and special interests in all countries tend to view or report their perspective of "the economy" through their specific perspective...which can vary greatly to say the least :-) Regardless, I believe an old adage (that doesn't seem as popular as it once did) is relevant regardless of the status or direction of the economy: "Live on less than you earn, Save for a rainy day, Invest for the future, and Avoid debt like the plague". And today I would add, if I may be so bold, "Learn how to profit in both good times AND bad.
Wow! This is an old thread.
Now:
Actually, what is happening is that the rate of growth in corporate profits is slowing down. That does not mean we are in (or will SOON enter) an economic recession. It means we are in an earnings recession. They are different.
Plus, Four out of the last five times the 2/10 yield curve inverted (since 1978), we had a positive stock market over the next 12 months. What matters is the type of company in which you are invested.
Yorkshireman,Obsessed collector of round, metallic pieces of history.Hunting for Latin American colonial portraits plus cool US & British coins.
CNBC talking heads saying the inverted yield curve precedes a recession by like 2 years. (when it does precede)
"Since the 2008 financial crisis, central banks around the globe have never been able to return interest rates to historically normal levels. They lowered interest rates to zero, and even below in some cases, to fight the Great Recession. Interest rates and bond yields have been low all through the recovery and expansion that followed, and they’re low still. So no reason to panic, some market observers say, because this is the new normal."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Fascinating! Well-written! How can I read more confirmation-biassed content??
*Tuesday, August 27, 2019
The Fantasy of Central Bank "Growth"
Having destroyed discipline, central banks have no way out of the corner they've painted us into.
It was such a wonderful fantasy: just give a handful of bankers, financiers and corporations trillions of dollars ..
(Clip bulk of rant)
That collapse is currently underway in slow motion, but given the increasing instability of asset bubbles, it could accelerate at any time.
**Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 ebook, $12 print, $13.08 audiobook): Read the first section for free in PDF format.
My new mystery The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake is a ridiculously affordable $1.29 (Kindle) or $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)
My book Money and Work Unchained is now $6.95 for the Kindle ebook and $15 for the print edition. Read the first section for free in PDF format.
If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com..**
(If you were entertained by this post, please send me a wheat cent)
Truth is painful for those who deny it; doesn't matter if its 'free' or 'paid for' words.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Best economy in all of history! The markets are up 300% since the '09 bottom.... Plus main street is booming with new packed up restaurants being advertised by Siri..... Plus houses at the highest levels in history!!! Plus oil and gas are still dirt cheap! Amazing!
@NIPSZX said:
Best economy in all of history! The markets are up 300% since the '09 bottom.... Plus main street is booming with new packed up restaurants being advertised by Siri..... Plus houses at the highest levels in history!!! Plus oil and gas are still dirt cheap! Amazing!
Repeat of 2007. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Comments
The GDP numbers from our "largest" states: If independent countries California, Texas & NY would be 7th, 12th & 14th largest economies in the world. D.C. at $109B is a bit deceiving don't you think?
Bunch Chicken stuff are the ones to scared to follow the President and his plan! Get with it or Go to Mexico! I say!!!
After 10 years, policy makers still haven’t learned the right lessons from the financial crisis
The old "keep making the same mistakes and expecting a different outcome" comes to mind. While many of the steps to ensure economic disruption are returning/have never dealt with, limiting depositors access to their money will likely once again be the unheard starter's pistol.
As noted by this respected economist advanced economies are still overly reliant on liquidity and leverage.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The economy is so bad that penny pinchers turned my coins into AU specimens.
Interesting old thread, a look back at recent history
Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb
Bad transactions with : nobody to date
Been a year since last comment. Sure is amusing to reread these old threads. Easy to discern the wheat from the chaff.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Damn, some of us were in rare form back in the day!
Looking forward to updated outlooks on The Economy and Weather
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I hope I was the first person to read your 20,000th post. A lot of people here have been looking forward to this moment!
Oh, Gawd, Baley! We gotta bronze that comment!
(Welcome back)
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
20K!
I knew it would happen.
Welcome back Baley.
The best in my lifetime...
Rest in peace gsa1fan. We miss you. Glad you spent your final days counting your many blessings.
This thread brought back so many memories of the past 4 years, thank you cohodk for reviving it, and for the warm greetings!
I've been so busy, and havent had much new to say, 19999 posts seemed like a good place to pause for a while...
But now it looks like the new job will afford more "captive time" (aka desk and airplane hours) and might have time to comment more often.
For this thread, any news out there? How are folks earnings and investments performing? What lies ahead IYO??
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Baley, Baley, Baley, Baley, Baley......Ok. A year later and 20,999.
Too funny. Hahaha. You gonna make us chuckle today. Well done my friend., well done.
So, has economy changed much in the last year in everyone's neck of the woods?
More or less cranes in your nearest city skyline?
Hows the corn in the Midwest?
Still lots of traffic in CA?
Your neighbors house for sale? Where they moving to?
Loser brother-in-law still holding onto his job?
Or we all sitting on our hands waiting for the next tweet before making an economic decision?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
We eat out all the time, and I see people out visiting eateries all the time, prices have gone up but it hasn't kept them from coming.
Lowes and home depot are constantly busy as well, buying appliances, plants.shrubs, home improvements etc
I will add , one negative I see is an abundance of commercial property available for lease (at least in this area)
Home Depot is one of my favorite companies and they own that part of the US retail market. They do well in a booming economy and they do well in a falling economy. They issue a pretty nice dividend as well
New England is slowly dying (that's where I'm located). Taxes, regulation and high costs of living is slowly eating away at the population and many of us are getting sick of it. To give you some statistics, Connecticut has had a population growth of 0% or a paltry increase population of 58,000 people since 2009
. Trust me, its not millionaires and billionaires moving here. North Carolina, Texas, Colorado etc look better and better each day.
Companies around me are doing well earnings wise, however, they are actively trimming workforces: Aetna, Cigna, Travelers and Prudential have all laid off 200+ each in Q2 in CT.... cheaper to automate and/or outsource jobs to India or other lower cost of living states
I also see a lot of commercial property
Lowes just reported great earnings
I want to move from new England, too.
the retirees can have it all.
chickens are coming home to roost
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Retirees are the ones who are moving.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
They must have wandered pretty far? Or the daytime is mucher longer than you thought?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Many areas have too many physical storefronts, especially when the store can be moved into folks' living rooms. Vacancies have little bearing on the economy as previous cycles.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yeah they are too.
However the working people have to flee when jobs disappear. There are plenty of dumb retirees who enjoy the area and are willing to get soaked.
just the things we need to live on is so high, food, gas, water, heat, just dont make sense. thanks
Its a lot more than retirees that are moving. A lot of my friends (I'm 30) have left CT after college to either go to cities to find more job opportunities or moving to lower cost of living areas. If my wife and I weren't close with our families we would have been gone 4 years ago. CT will only be getting worse over the next 10 years due to the unfunded pensions:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/connecticut-pensions-fiscal-trouble
IF the economy is so good WHY is everyone still trying to beat me out of a few more bucks.
If I hear do ME a favor ONE more time.....
QE Corp buybacks and Fed always play parts in the cycling. Debt creates a constant need to turnover. Stick to balancing your investment keep your mind relevant and keep you money accessible while you age out. I’m not concerned at this point but always have knowledge of your industry and the true valuations of your investment. Fed terms are 2% net due never.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
Smoke and mirrors, glass is always half full, and most unlikely best case scenario is reason to buy into market....BTFD...support propaganda if you love your country...or else...
or else... 
yep, the FED threw QE dollars on the ground to lead them away, but they know the way home.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I think interest rates are too low. Some countries even have negative interest rates on bonds. Not normal.
Purely coincidence, I assure you 😉
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Pay attention to NO ONE except Soldi ! As I am the Son of an Ohio Garage Mechanic
Focus on the world and all the money is coming here, all of it. We're the only false "float" out there paying interest on T s and Bonds.
I don't pay interest on a thing. The way I choose to live. Semper Fi!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Mazatlan in retirement is the way to go!
ooohhh Rah !! .....................You pay taxes don't you?
https://steemit.com/finance/@unscammable/why-active-shooter-situations-and-terror-attacks-are-great-for-the-stock-market
"Extend and pretend, forever and ever, just like we always have."
The economy is always better in the future when compared to the past. You can see the results in the stock market and in asset prices. We are 300% better than we were in '08-'09. We went from 7k in the DOW to 25k, roughly. You also have to factor time into the equation. We were only in the Great Recession for 1 year. We have been expanding for 10+ years. That is what people don't understand. Even the Great Depression didn't last long when compared to the boom times. It is always a 10/1 minimum, at least.
Even if the DOW went back down to 7000, which is theoretically impossible due to the creation of the Fed and what they stand for, we would only be where we were 10 years ago. And that is an impossible example that has never happened in all of history. People say they don't like debt, but they freak out when the market goes down 0.5%. It is hilarious and it actually is a protection mechanism built in, so that the system always goes up and never goes down, while Americans remain unhappy and ungrateful. Buy at least one index fund and make a deal with yourself to hold it for your entire life just for fun and you will learn. It is that simple. It's a guaranteed no lose situation. Give it to your kids and explain what you have learned. Don't talk about the purchasing power of the sale in the future. And please don't bring up the Nikkei. My grandfather bought it at 100 in 1950. You snooze, you lose!
Markets go up and down and are all cyclical. Some are correlated and some are counter-correlated (move in similar directions at the same time, or move mostly opposite at the same time... stocks and bonds tend to move in similar directions, with bond cycles leading stock cycles by about 9-18 months with about 87% correlation, and commodities tend to move opposite of stocks). With that said; individuals, corporations, governments, political parties, and special interests in all countries tend to view or report their perspective of "the economy" through their specific perspective...which can vary greatly to say the least :-) Regardless, I believe an old adage (that doesn't seem as popular as it once did) is relevant regardless of the status or direction of the economy: "Live on less than you earn, Save for a rainy day, Invest for the future, and Avoid debt like the plague". And today I would add, if I may be so bold, "Learn how to profit in both good times AND bad.
Wow! This is an old thread.
Now:
Actually, what is happening is that the rate of growth in corporate profits is slowing down. That does not mean we are in (or will SOON enter) an economic recession. It means we are in an earnings recession. They are different.
Plus, Four out of the last five times the 2/10 yield curve inverted (since 1978), we had a positive stock market over the next 12 months. What matters is the type of company in which you are invested.
CNBC talking heads saying the inverted yield curve precedes a recession by like 2 years. (when it does precede)
"Since the 2008 financial crisis, central banks around the globe have never been able to return interest rates to historically normal levels. They lowered interest rates to zero, and even below in some cases, to fight the Great Recession. Interest rates and bond yields have been low all through the recovery and expansion that followed, and they’re low still. So no reason to panic, some market observers say, because this is the new normal."
OMG no, not the new normal.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/the-inverted-yield-curve-explained-and-what-it-means-for-your-money.html
A ‘recession dashboard’ from Credit Suisse indicates the economy is nowhere near a recession
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/a-recession-dashboard-from-credit-suisse-indicates-the-economy-is-nowhere-near-a-recession.html
Morgan Stanley: Risk of a global recession is ‘high and rising’
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/morgan-stanley-risk-of-a-global-recession-is-high-and-rising.html
_**
Excellent summary of the past 10 years
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Fascinating! Well-written! How can I read more confirmation-biassed content??
*Tuesday, August 27, 2019
The Fantasy of Central Bank "Growth"
Having destroyed discipline, central banks have no way out of the corner they've painted us into.
It was such a wonderful fantasy: just give a handful of bankers, financiers and corporations trillions of dollars ..
(Clip bulk of rant)
That collapse is currently underway in slow motion, but given the increasing instability of asset bubbles, it could accelerate at any time.
**Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 ebook, $12 print, $13.08 audiobook): Read the first section for free in PDF format.
My new mystery The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake is a ridiculously affordable $1.29 (Kindle) or $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)
My book Money and Work Unchained is now $6.95 for the Kindle ebook and $15 for the print edition. Read the first section for free in PDF format.
If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com..**
(If you were entertained by this post, please send me a wheat cent)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Truth is painful for those who deny it; doesn't matter if its 'free' or 'paid for' words.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Best economy in all of history! The markets are up 300% since the '09 bottom.... Plus main street is booming with new packed up restaurants being advertised by Siri..... Plus houses at the highest levels in history!!! Plus oil and gas are still dirt cheap! Amazing!
There was no truth in that writing. No facts. No absolute numbers. Nothing.
Just sour grapes and whining. Oohh...now I'm thirsty.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Rest In Peace GSA1fan. The market and economy have a long shelf life. Man, not so much.
Repeat of 2007. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey