My thinking is similar to what pf70collector states.
The bigger issue could be that most collectors who wanted additional sets may be just slowing down due to lack of funds, starting to lose interest etc for various reasons.
From a collector stand point…with so many “high priced” offerings from the mint who really has the money to keep buying and buying all these items when you look at what is going on in the economies here and elsewhere.
As some one else mentioned, the US Mint will have to learn the lesson of the Perth Mint. Over priced, too many items being offered, manufactured collectables (like gold plated quarters). Leading to a souring of the collector community and a fall in sales overall. Example: Baseball cards
Each coin has two sides. That said, one side tells me that the Big TV Retailers have already done their ordering of this special two Eagle coin set. On the flip side, if they do come in and order a bunch of sets in the last few days, then many collectors/speculators will cancel many of their orders. Your Comments .....
<< <i>I think the value of the 2006RP is going to take quit a hit, if this comes in under 200K. >>
The 2006 has a different reverse design and very low First Strike numbers--it should continue to do fine. I believe all three reverse proofs will remain popular with collectors.
The Mint is going to make enough coins to cover the orders they have as of the close of the sales period. You can be certain that they will sell what they have on hand either by taking extra orders after the close and having a large waiting list or a second left overs sale. They have said that they will strike to demand in the 4 weeks period. They did not say they will get stuck with left over inventory because of dead orders. The objective of the Mint was to strike to less than they could sell in a year so the aftermarket does not crash and have zero left over inventory. They will hit these two objectives regardless of our behavior.
Or in a few years from now, those that don't sell will come up for sale again. Much like mint offerings in the past like the westward journey series, etc.
<< <i>Or in a few years from now, those that don't sell will come up for sale again. Much like mint offerings in the past like the westward journey series, etc. >>
Hmmm..... Zombie mint offerings. Just went you thought it was over, they rise again.
Adding the new actual sales and forecast numbers, looks like less than 160K total sales as of today. Intersection of actual, forecast and length of sale makes it interesting. We'll see what happens next as more numbers come in.
<< <i>The Mint is going to make enough coins to cover the orders they have as of the close of the sales period. You can be certain that they will sell what they have on hand either by taking extra orders after the close and having a large waiting list or a second left overs sale. They have said that they will strike to demand in the 4 weeks period. They did not say they will get stuck with left over inventory because of dead orders. The objective of the Mint was to strike to less than they could sell in a year so the aftermarket does not crash and have zero left over inventory. They will hit these two objectives regardless of our behavior.
Eric >>
My read is that they will take orders for the 4-week period and then close the order book. I don't expect them to reopen orders for a leftovers sale. If they do, there will be many unhappy customers who placed their orders during the official ordering period only to see additional coins come on the market later.
Shipping is not scheduled to start until after the ordering period has ended, so the Mint can wait to strike the final batch until after they know the total number of valid orders. They don't need to strike too many coins and wind up with leftovers to melt or sell.
There are two precedents that relate to this situation. The first involves the 1997 Jackie Robinson uncirculated $5 gold coin. There were about 12,000 struck but only 5174 sold during the 6-month official ordering period. Despite pressure from a congressman to extend the ordering period, the Mint melted the unsold coins and maintained the integrity of the ordering period.
The second precedent was set the following year, with a short (I think 2-week) ordering period for the 1998-S RFK/JFK two-coin silver uncirculated set. Only about 62,000 sets were ordered, far short of most everyone's expectations, but again the Mint enforced the ordering period, creating the key Kennedy half and generating a windfall for those brave or lucky enough to order the sets.
If the Mint were to play games with the 4-week ordering period for the 2012-S Silver Eagle sets, I expect it would be an even bigger public relations setback than the controversy surrounding the 2011 25th Anniversary set. I don't think it's going to happen.
Not quite half way...if the number doubles (which would be reasonable to expect), we're looking at 270,000--280,000. Anything over 250K does not bode well for the 75th set.
Flippers buy for a profit, and they buy in bulk. They would have jumped on these the first day. I see no reason at all for a flipper to wait until the last day, not only will they risk not having better dated boxes, but the low hanging fruit has been picked. Those saying there will be a burst of activity on the last day...I just dont see a 60k order day, I think most of the collectors will have ordered their set, the flippers will have already done what they needed to do. I have been known to flip, but i just dont see anything here making me drool that i need 100 units of. The RP is the key, and will probably cover the price of the set, but my experience with the proof coins is that they spot, and this is just an ounce of silver--and the fees with paypal, ebay and grading , well, just no room for any profit. Just my 2 cents.
I just got a Summer Catalog from the US Mint. I don't check my PO Box very often so no telling when it was mailed. Are a lot of US Mint customers just finding out about these sets? Time will tell.
<< <i>They would have jumped on these the first day. I see no reason at all for a flipper to wait until the last day, not only will they risk not having better dated boxes, but the low hanging fruit has been picked >>
Not when all sets are apparently being shipped at the same time in late July......boxes will not be "better" or "worse" dated as many suspect the ship dates will all fall within a week or so of late July.
So, a potential flipper watches the numbers and then decides if there is any room for profit. Best of both worlds.
Does anyone think that silver under $27 is going to impact the final number of these sets sold. Are we all programmed to buy regardless of silver price? At what price ( if any) would you cancel your order?
New numbers posted 141,892 +3,029 Another uptick from the decreasing sales trend earlier this week and last.
As to the silver price falling below $27, it is like stock prices and swings for no apparent reason sometimes. A temporary dip? Maybe. Will it effect the buys for the "S" set? Maybe a little. For collectors probably not. They either already ordered or will still purchase at least one.
Please make a prediction of the final day, July 5th, sales number. The thread was started today and guesses will be open for one week. Final Days Sales Prediction Thread Thanks for playing.
<< <i>Does anyone think that silver under $27 is going to impact the final number of these sets sold. Are we all programmed to buy regardless of silver price? At what price ( if any) would you cancel your order? >>
I don't think it makes sense to cancel an order based on the silver price.
If silver goes up, it lowers the financial risk of buying the sets, since they can always be sold at spot plus a small premium. If silver goes down, new collectors will be attracted to the AE series because it's more affordable, thus increasing demand for the 2012-S set.
For flipping purposes only, it might make sense to cancel an order if you think that the final total number of orders is too high to sustain a premium price in the aftermarket.
The uptick in daily sales for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday shows there is still interest in this set. It could be a result of the mailed out Mint's summer catalog reaching customers starting Wednesday. A whole new group of collectors has been made aware of the sets, and they are ordering. The weekend should see a similar increase in sales. We shall see on Monday.
If more collectors, from serious to casual to impulse buyers, are buying these sets now, how will this effect the possible last minute buys to get in on a low mintage issue? Does the low mintage possibility even figure in for a lot of these recent buyers? Or did they get the catalog, like the set and placed an order? Or did they remember hearing something about the 25th Anniversary set controversy and wanted in right away while ordering was still open? Will these people who are ordering since the catalog arrived in their mail make a second buy in the closing moments of the ordering period? Probably not for 99% of them.
You had a theory before the catalogs got delivered. Did you even think about a Mint catalog coming in the mail to a hugh group of consumers? I didn't. Does this effect your theory? How will this effect the low mintage possibility? Or does it matter? At what ordering level would you consider it a low mintage set? Under 200,000? Under 250,000? Under 300,000?
Has your prediction of the final days sales changed? Think about it. Ponder some more. Then post a guess in the Final Day Sales Prediction thread. Guess eligibility will remain open till Wednesday evening.
The shipping date change more or less confirms the contention that 150,000 sets were minted if Fridays 145,000 number is referenced. As the mint had orders approaching what they had on hand they moved the expected shipping day out to allow minting more to fill the demand.
Thanks to Big A's noting the lack of a prize for the Final Day Sales Prediction thread for opening my eyes. I thought of offering a prize, however, our hosts "Win a St. Gaudens" at the top of the forum overshadowed my prospective offering. Big A pointed out that any prize would be appreciated. Therefore I have updated the Final Day Sales Predictions thread to include a prize.
The closest to the final day sales number will receive a 2005 Maui trade Dollar. CuNi, 39.2 mm crown size.
So, if you have a theory of the final day sales number which will be posted on Friday July 6th on the Mints web page, head over to the companion thread and post a guess.
The S proof will be the semi new key unseating the 1993 and 1994 Regular ASE Proofs, unless the mint manages to sell over 370,000. It will take several years though for this fact to effect prices on this S Regular Proof which requires holding on to your sets. However, the 1993 and 1994 raws have fallen in prices (from $150s to the 70-90s range in the past few years) due to fewer collectors collecting the entire series maybe.
<< <i>The S proof will be the semi new key unseating the 1993 and 1994 Regular ASE Proofs, unless the mint manages to sell over 370,000. It will take several years though for this fact to effect prices on this S Regular Proof which requires holding on to your sets. However, the 1993 and 1994 raws have fallen in prices (from $150s to the 70-90s range in the past few years) due to fewer collectors collecting the entire series maybe. >>
Many collectors buy only the annual proofs for their sets, bypassing special issues such as the 1995-W and the reverse proofs.
So even if the 2012-S comes in with a lower mintage than the 1993/94, it will not necessarily surpass them in price because demand will be lower.
Comments
<< <i>100
Well, they've already surpassed 100.
The bigger issue could be that most collectors who wanted additional sets may be just slowing
down due to lack of funds, starting to lose interest etc for various reasons.
From a collector stand point…with so many “high priced” offerings from the mint who really has the money
to keep buying and buying all these items when you look at what is going on in the economies here and elsewhere.
my 2 cents
I still say hold off on buying these.
<< <i>I think the value of the 2006RP is going to take quit a hit, if this comes in under 200K. >>
It won't be under 200k.....
I think I am absolutely almost maybe positive.....
If the numbers on Monday July 2nd are around 180k there is NO way this will be below 250k. That Monday will start the buying binge......
edited to add: of course my prediction of a tad over 500k is toast either way
<< <i>I think the value of the 2006RP is going to take quit a hit, if this comes in under 200K. >>
The 2006 has a different reverse design and very low First Strike numbers--it should continue to do fine. I believe all three reverse proofs will remain popular with collectors.
Eric
Box of 20
<< <i>Or in a few years from now, those that don't sell will come up for sale again. Much like mint offerings in the past like the westward journey series, etc. >>
Hmmm..... Zombie mint offerings. Just went you thought it was over, they rise again.
of sale makes it interesting. We'll see what happens next as more numbers come in.
<< <i>The Mint is going to make enough coins to cover the orders they have as of the close of the sales period. You can be certain that they will sell what they have on hand either by taking extra orders after the close and having a large waiting list or a second left overs sale. They have said that they will strike to demand in the 4 weeks period. They did not say they will get stuck with left over inventory because of dead orders. The objective of the Mint was to strike to less than they could sell in a year so the aftermarket does not crash and have zero left over inventory. They will hit these two objectives regardless of our behavior.
Eric >>
My read is that they will take orders for the 4-week period and then close the order book. I don't expect them to reopen orders for a leftovers sale. If they do, there will be many unhappy customers who placed their orders during the official ordering period only to see additional coins come on the market later.
Shipping is not scheduled to start until after the ordering period has ended, so the Mint can wait to strike the final batch until after they know the total number of valid orders. They don't need to strike too many coins and wind up with leftovers to melt or sell.
There are two precedents that relate to this situation. The first involves the 1997 Jackie Robinson uncirculated $5 gold coin. There were about 12,000 struck but only 5174 sold during the 6-month official ordering period. Despite pressure from a congressman to extend the ordering period, the Mint melted the unsold coins and maintained the integrity of the ordering period.
The second precedent was set the following year, with a short (I think 2-week) ordering period for the 1998-S RFK/JFK two-coin silver uncirculated set. Only about 62,000 sets were ordered, far short of most everyone's expectations, but again the Mint enforced the ordering period, creating the key Kennedy half and generating a windfall for those brave or lucky enough to order the sets.
If the Mint were to play games with the 4-week ordering period for the 2012-S Silver Eagle sets, I expect it would be an even bigger public relations setback than the controversy surrounding the 2011 25th Anniversary set. I don't think it's going to happen.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Box of 20
<< <i>They would have jumped on these the first day. I see no reason at all for a flipper to wait until the last day, not only will they risk not having better dated boxes, but the low hanging fruit has been picked >>
Not when all sets are apparently being shipped at the same time in late July......boxes will not be "better" or "worse" dated as many suspect the ship dates will all fall within a week or so of late July.
So, a potential flipper watches the numbers and then decides if there is any room for profit. Best of both worlds.
As to the silver price falling below $27, it is like stock prices and swings for no apparent reason sometimes. A temporary dip? Maybe. Will it effect the buys for the "S" set? Maybe a little. For collectors probably not. They either already ordered or will still purchase at least one.
Daily numbers going down - more people thinking "the total mintage will be lower than we thought" and buy more
Daily numbers going up - people stop buying thinking the total numbers will be going up
Rinse and repeat
<< <i>Does anyone think that silver under $27 is going to impact the final number of these sets sold. Are we all programmed to buy regardless of silver price? At what price ( if any) would you cancel your order? >>
I don't think it makes sense to cancel an order based on the silver price.
If silver goes up, it lowers the financial risk of buying the sets, since they can always be sold at spot plus a small premium. If silver goes down, new collectors will be attracted to the AE series because it's more affordable, thus increasing demand for the 2012-S set.
For flipping purposes only, it might make sense to cancel an order if you think that the final total number of orders is too high to sustain a premium price in the aftermarket.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The uptick in daily sales for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday shows there is still interest in
this set. It could be a result of the mailed out Mint's summer catalog reaching customers
starting Wednesday. A whole new group of collectors has been made aware of the sets, and they
are ordering. The weekend should see a similar increase in sales. We shall see on Monday.
If more collectors, from serious to casual to impulse buyers, are buying these sets now, how
will this effect the possible last minute buys to get in on a low mintage issue? Does the low
mintage possibility even figure in for a lot of these recent buyers? Or did they get the
catalog, like the set and placed an order? Or did they remember hearing something about the
25th Anniversary set controversy and wanted in right away while ordering was still open? Will
these people who are ordering since the catalog arrived in their mail make a second buy in the
closing moments of the ordering period? Probably not for 99% of them.
You had a theory before the catalogs got delivered. Did you even think about a Mint catalog
coming in the mail to a hugh group of consumers? I didn't. Does this effect your theory?
How will this effect the low mintage possibility? Or does it matter? At what ordering level
would you consider it a low mintage set? Under 200,000? Under 250,000? Under 300,000?
Has your prediction of the final days sales changed? Think about it. Ponder some more. Then
post a guess in the Final Day Sales Prediction thread. Guess eligibility will remain open
till Wednesday evening.
<< <i>...to my latest prediction: The Mint just changed the ship date to 9/28. That should put a crimp in sales!!! >>
Prolly a Large demand with the catalogs going out last week ?
Only 2 days left to get your prediction of the final day sales number. Post your guess in the other thread. Thanks.
<< <i>Mondays number up : 152,047 +6,874 This has to be the result of the Mint's summer catalogs being delivered. Thanks. >>
...or the extra w/e days. No number Sat or Sun so it should have been higher than a one day number
<< <i>Mine still shows 7/27 as the expected ship date. >>
Ship date on sets ordered over the last few days is 9/28...previous orders are unchanged
Is it just me but there are more and more "contests" without any prizes.....kinda lame
Thanks to Big A's noting the lack of a prize for the Final Day Sales Prediction thread for opening my eyes. I thought of offering a prize, however, our hosts "Win a St. Gaudens" at the top of the forum overshadowed my prospective offering. Big A pointed out that any prize would be appreciated. Therefore I have updated the Final Day Sales Predictions thread to include a prize.
The closest to the final day sales number will receive a 2005 Maui trade Dollar. CuNi, 39.2 mm crown size.
So, if you have a theory of the final day sales number which will be posted on Friday July 6th on the Mints web page, head over to the companion thread and post a guess.
<< <i>Ship date on sets ordered over the last few days is 9/28...previous orders are unchanged >>
Now it looks like we have a big deviation in ship dates......oh boy.....
Looks like some will get coveted FS or ER, and others wont........chalk up another 20% gain.
<< <i>
<< <i>Ship date on sets ordered over the last few days is 9/28...previous orders are unchanged >>
Now it looks like we have a big deviation in ship dates......oh boy.....
Looks like some will get coveted FS or ER, and others wont........chalk up another 20% gain. >>
You can slice the nuance all you like. These are DOA for any type of appreciation or profit.
Loves me some shiny!
<< <i>You can slice the nuance all you like. These are DOA for any type of appreciation or profit. >>
Not a chance my friend. This makes it much more interesting.
The next thing we would like to see is sub 200k sets. With the delayed delivery dates, it should cool sales just a bit.
Box of 20
<< <i>You can slice the nuance all you like. These are DOA for any type of appreciation or profit. >>
Au contrair mon ami ..... This sets up two possibilities....
.....this now limits FS/ER possibilities to the announced mintage of approx. 150k on Friday
..and...
..the potential for the procrastinators to whine and blow off the set now which could keep numbers low
<< <i>correctomundo...... >>
Is this another one of your: "Stick a Fork in it" prediction?
<< <i>The S proof will be the semi new key unseating the 1993 and 1994 Regular ASE Proofs, unless the mint manages to sell over 370,000. It will take several years though for this fact to effect prices on this S Regular Proof which requires holding on to your sets. However, the 1993 and 1994 raws have fallen in prices (from $150s to the 70-90s range in the past few years) due to fewer collectors collecting the entire series maybe. >>
Many collectors buy only the annual proofs for their sets, bypassing special issues such as the 1995-W and the reverse proofs.
So even if the 2012-S comes in with a lower mintage than the 1993/94, it will not necessarily surpass them in price because demand will be lower.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
If need be, they could strike up more - at some point.