"OFFICIAL" 75th Anniversary "S" ASE Set Final Sales Prediction

Kudbegud

As posted in the Official San Francisco Set Ordering thread, guesses are appearing for the final sales count. It was suggested in one post that a separate thread be made for final sales numbers. The first days sales count thread seemed to go over as a fun thing to participate in and I enjoyed hosting that thread. So, having plenty of time, some would say too much time , here is

The Official 75th Anniversary ASE Set Final Sales Prediction Thread

I will update this post each day with the newest posted sales number.

To make this a test of your predictive abilities, only One Guess Per Forum Member Please.

Those who made predictions in the other thread are encouraged to post here again to make your guess
"OFFICIAL"

Predictions will be accepted until 4 PM EDT, Sunday, June 17th only, giving you time to get your crystal balls back from calibration and repair after the work out they received during the first day sales prediction contest.

The winning guess will be the closest to the Official Mint Counter Number posted after sales end July 5th at 5PM EDT. Over or under guesses don't matter. Just closest guess.

The winner will be posted here as soon as possible following the mint's reporting of the final sales numbers, probably on Friday, July 6th ≈ 3 PM EDT. There may or may not be a mint posting on July 4th, but that shouldn't effect the final sales number.



I will start it off with my prognostication ..... 249,512

......................Mint Counter.......Change....Excel Forecast......Change
Fri-8-Jun..............85,341
Mon-11-Jun........115,059.........+29,718.........363,412
Tue-12-Jun.........121,304.........+ 6,245..........338,561
Wed-13-Jun........125,371........ + 4,067..........312,849...........-25,712
Thu-14-Jun.........128,540........ + 3,169..........290,118...........-22,731
Fri-15-Jun...........131,512.........+ 2,972..........271,718...........-18,400
Mon-18-Jun........135,468.........+ 3,956..........227,721...........-43,997
Tue-19-Jun.........136,678.........+ 1,210..........217,243...........-10,477
Wed-20-Jun........138,863 ........+ 2,185..........209,315...........-7,928
Thu-21-Jun.........141,892.........+ 3,029..........203,765...........-5,550
Fri-22-Jun...........145,173.........+ 3,281..........199,945...........-3,820
Mon-25-Jun........152,047.........+ 6,874..........192,168...........-7,777
Tue-26-Jun.........156,569.........+ 4,522..........190,986...........-1,182
Wed-27-Jun........162,581.........+ 6,012..........191,031...........+ 45
Thu-28-Jun.........166,836.........+ 4,255..........191,368...........+ 337
Fri-29-Jun...........175,588.........+ 8,752..........193,024...........+1,656
Mon-2-Jul............201,059........+25,471..........202,068...........+9,044
Tue-3-Jul.............217,351........+16,292..........206,580...........+4,513 A failed Excel forecast model? Maybe not.
Wed-4-Jul...........245,131........+27,780..........213,824...........+7,244
Thu-5-Jul............250,738........+ 5,607...........219,712...........+5,888
Fri-6-Jul..............251,302........+ 564..............223,851...........+4,139 Winner 7over8
++++ Counter Is Gone as of Monday noon &/9 ++++

MsMorrisine

315795

TheRaven

378,934

Pokermandude

521,751

Goldbully

75th Anniversary "S" ASE Set ?
What is that all about? Sorry if I missed something here!

pitboss

376,333

Barney1955

289,978

Kudbegud

<< <i>75th Anniversary "S" ASE Set ?
What is that all about? Sorry if I missed something here! >>



The San Francisco 75th Anniversary Silver Eagle set that went on sale last Thursday. Remember, you made the very first guess for the first day sales number prediction?

Overdate

346,123

CollectingMachine

421,963

pf70collector

329,654

BigA

<< <i>

<< <i>75th Anniversary "S" ASE Set ?
What is that all about? Sorry if I missed something here! >>



The San Francisco 75th Anniversary Silver Eagle set that went on sale last Thursday. Remember, you made the very first guess for the first day sales number prediction? >>



Guess you missed his "wink"

(and the Mint says it's not an Anniversary set)

RichR

I go with: "296,500"

Egger

mine is


281,715

Manorcourtman

234,852

7over8

337,592

Kudbegud

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>75th Anniversary "S" ASE Set ?
What is that all about? Sorry if I missed something here! >>



The San Francisco 75th Anniversary Silver Eagle set that went on sale last Thursday. Remember, you made the very first guess for the first day sales number prediction? >>



Guess you missed his "wink"

(and the Mint says it's not an Anniversary set) >>




Do'h !

FullStrike

OK heres my best OFFICIAL GUESS for these US MINT moneymakers:


536,384


looking for a 200,000 hit in the final few days.

EricSan

My guess is somewhere in the 300-400k range. But since it has crossed the 100k mark in less than one week, I don't really care anymore - they will still push the 2011s higher...

jmski52

259,500

Kudbegud

Just up-----new Mint numbers: 121,304 up 6,245. From sales that happened on Monday

GOWYO

My OFFICIAL guesstimate is:

321,123

carew4me

199,997

Raufus

305,000

(The higher the better from the perspective of the 25th anniv. sets' value.)

kingkoin56

351,550

mikeyg

I still say over 600k,so my guess is 601,000.

19Lyds

I could almost guarantee that if on July 6th, sales are less the 300,000, that the sales on July 7th will be 50,000 or more. Especially if folaks start paying MORE than $200 for a graded set.

Kudbegud

<< <i>I could almost guarantee that if on July 6th, sales are less the 300,000, that the sales on July 7th will be 50,000 or more. Especially if folaks start paying MORE than $200 for a graded set. >>



19Lyds
The Mint concludes sales on July 5th, the exact time I don't know. They, the Mint, will post the final sales numbers on July 6th about 3pm EDT. Delivery is expected to start July 27th as shown on my order web page. The first graded sets couldn't be in collectors hands much sooner than 2 weeks after that if shipments are expedited to and from the grader. Which sales on July 7th did you mean?

goldbuffalo

i just called the Mint to ask if they are really waiting until late July to ship these.

She felt very confident that the Mint will be waiting until the end of the sales date, and probably to late July to start shipping these.

Of course things can change pretty fast at the Mint, but that's the story.

jetblack740il

212,121

drei3ree

459,736

Kudbegud

New number posted by the Mint. 125,371 +4,067
(I added a daily increase number to the first post in this thread)

Sales are, as expected, slowing. I'm anticipating that by close to the end daily sales will fall below 1,000. It remains to be seen if the last week, including the July 4th holiday, will see demand balloon. I think it will but to what extent is the real question.

BigDaddyz

361527

PinkFloyd

368,247

Still need to get mine.

nags

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I assume that the large buyers would have bought a big chunk right away to try to get the first batch graded and on the market ASAP. If the total mintage is looking low will they buy a bunch more at the end? Doing so would effectively diminish the value of the initial purchases by increasing supply. It seems that the folks who want to capitalize on a flip will be the ones that will make the product unflippable in the end.

fishcooker

600k+. Better be first in, first out.

pf70collector

These sales are not looking good. Everyone waiting it seems for the last few days. If low the mint could extend the buying period which is always possible or not and say collectors had their chance.

mach19

<< <i>These sales are not looking good. Everyone waiting it seems for the last few days. If low the mint could extend the buying period which is always possible or not and say collectors had their chance. >>



Or they can stop production ? who know's ?

CoinMaster1229

244,029

Dice21

My official guess is still 221K.....as mentioned in a prev thread

FullStrike

So what happens if sales are 600,000 and 300,000 get sent back? Will the Mint keep the returns on sale for the next 7 years?

I seem to remember the 2-coin Platinum Anniversary Set was on sale for a really long time.

drei3ree

<< <i>

<< <i>These sales are not looking good. Everyone waiting it seems for the last few days. If low the mint could extend the buying period which is always possible or not and say collectors had their chance. >>



Or they can stop production ? who know's ? >>



It's the Mint's party. They will do whatever they want, with an eye toward profits.

Kudbegud

New numbers just up: 128,540 +3,169 from Wednesday

GBurger717

398,891

WillieBoyd2

444,444

7over8

Im thinking more like 250,000 now

I was earlier in the camp of 300-350k, but given the growth of around 3k sets per day and probably tailing off, then a last minute bump of "lets say" half of the first two days sales, you are looking at around 250k

pitboss

That will sure make a winner out of last years coin.

66Tbird

242,587 seems like a good numbers after the crystal ball got the ol spit shine

Twobitcollector

232,082 looks like a good number to me

7over8

<< <i>That will sure make a winner out of last years coin >>



Correct - but how much more upside from current pricing?

As opposed to this set coming in shy of 250k, may make it a $250-$300 set like the 2006.

Do you have the potential for 65% upside on the 2001 set from current levels......Im not so sure about that.....

pf70collector

Rebellion among ASE collectors. A rehash of the 1995 W. Not as bad but a 100% premium is still price gouging.