Because the assumption was that they would not introduce a second ship date which changed the landscape. Therefore those that decided to wait will not get the FS but if they want in they still need to order.
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
<< <i>Because the assumption was that they would not introduce a second ship date which changed the landscape. Therefore those that decided to wait will not get the FS but if they want in they still need to order. >>
Yep....and this was something I posted about when they first went on sale.....I made a very educated guess, knowing how the mint works, and, when folks said they would just wait to order at the end, I warned that this would be a possibility about the shipping time and FS/ER.
This is really getting to be a spectacle. How high will the daily totals increase as we approach the end of ordering. How close to reality will the " Counter" prove to be. How long before the Mint actually releases the final and true mintage numbers.
IMO, I think the price is a little too agressive. Considering the website posted a new price of $259 per set yesterday (which seemed to be a good price point), and emails to "subscribers" went out that "they would be available in the later afternoon" - I tried their website and they never became available.
Of course, available this morning for another $30 bucks a set at $289.
Thanks anyway. Not for me at that price.
So, I guess there is demand at 289+, this makes the story better for the earlier ordered sets, the ones that could receive ER/FS.
IMO, I think the price is a little too agressive. Considering the website posted a new price of $259 per set yesterday, and emails to "subscribers" went out that "they would be available in the later afternoon" - never happened.
Of course, like clockwork, available this morning for another $30 bucks a set at $289.
Thanks anyway. Your might as well submit your own, and make 70 sets at around 230 all in. >>
We honored many hundreds of 70 sets at $229, again many at $259 yesterday (yes, it did happen briefly and sold out), and yes we are now at $289. "Aggressive"? all I know is they keep selling and we will need to pull all the ER/FR in a matter of a day or two if we don't find additional supply. We will sell non FS/FR at some point soon.
No one including myself knew for certain that a wrench would be thrown into this with two different ship dates.
They can price at whatever they see fit and appropriate based on supply and demand. If $289 is the price, or $300, or even $320--- then so be it.
<< <i>again many at $259 yesterday >>
However, yesterday, after receiving emails about being available in the late afternoon - I monitored the website at that time to buy at $259....it never became available.
So - yesterday there must have been a problem with the website availability. It would have been good to offer those who received those emails (subscribers) the ability to order at $259 this morning.
Most of the $259 sets were sold on outgoing calls to earlier requests but there was about a 30 minute period where they were also live on the website. Many have asked about PCGS sets. Don't know when or how much but promise to announce it on BST first. Could be a while.
As for yesterday, I dont know of any 30 minute period where they were available. I was on from 3 to 6 pm. Prior to that they were out of stock as well.
Would have been nice to offer those subscribers attempting to get the product yesterday the 259 price.......but thats just my opinion.
Good deal I believe at $229 for the NGC ER 70 sets. I will have a wait and see for the PCGS sets. I would buy at $239, but that price will not be offered now. I will not rush to buy a PCGS 70 FS Set. Like the 2011 Anniversary Sets last year, these could be become very volatile for the first few months.
<< <i>What is aftermarket price estimate if numbers come in close to 300,000?? >>
I'm predicting that the OGP 75th will always sell at a premium to the Mint's price. However. unless you have 70's, graded sets probably break even for at least a year.
Yes, the $229 people are happy campers and there were many.
7/8--- Don't know what else to say other than: I PERSONALLY added some quantity to the website at $259, and watched it disappear. Granted, most of the $259 sets were call backs and those never appeared on the website.
Two days to purchase. New counter number posted: 217,351 + 16,292 It now seems like 250,000 is a distinct possibility. The Excel forecast has failed projecting 206,580. Hmmmmm??? And it was looking good until the mail orders started bumping the counter up dramatically. Will there be a counter update tomorrow? Stay tuned.
Yes, Thursday July 5th @ 5PM EDT. Friday's counter will determine the winner of this thread. However, mail orders should be accepted after the deadline if post marked no later than July 5th per the customer service person at the 800 number. So I will keep tracking the counter for 1 week after the official closing of the gate.
MCM is an example of a company trying to find a market for an item on the fly. I give them credit for starting at such an attractive price and, as with everything, demand affects price. When you look at the graded 2006 sets and see what a 70 set brings then these should be working their way to at LEAST half of that price in the short term.....
<< <i><<217,000 is rolling now. Mid to High 200s here we come if this keeps up.>>
So...Eric...as the man with probably the most knowledge of this series...what would be a "good" number from a future collectibility point of view? >>
I would like to see the 2012S issues come in at roughly 250,000. If somehow they go over 300,000 I think it will hurt the coins badly. Go look at the early to mind 90s ASE proofs as a reference. They did not "run" much with the exception of some lower pop 70s. Just too many of them.
<< <i>I wonder how long the cancel box will remain. >>
My order still says "In Process" "Back ordered, expected to ship 7/27" and the cancel box is there.
I was thinking this on Sunday: "I'm guessing, and only a guess (no Guess The ... thread to follow ) that the cancel box will disappear for the earlier shipping date orders shortly after sales officially close. Maybe as soon as the week of July 8-14. The later shipping date delete box possibly two or three weeks later. I will keep checking for that check box's departure. Some one with a later ship date will have to report when theirs goes away." I'm sticking with this till the mint proves me wrong.
I think people are putting way too much stock in the shipping date and expecting a result. The mint has not been easy to predict in the past not thinking its going to start now.
Currently working with nurmaler. Older transactions....circa 2011 BST transactions Gecko109, Segoja, lpinion, Agblox, oldgumballmachineswanted,pragmaticgoat, CharlieC, onlyroosies, timrutnat, ShinyThingsInPM under login lightcycler
<< <i>John Maben and the MCM crew had it right with the graded ATB's when they sold them during the height of the rush....
and they have it right now with these sets. Kudos to their market timing. Can't be right all the time; yet, 51% or better will do. >>
That's a really nice compliment but not sure it's true.
On the ATB sets, we sold many graded sets at numbers that are now way too high but were the lowest prices we could find at the time. Generally, we ignored all the BINS on eBay, looked at completed sales and then priced well below those. On the one hand, nice profits were made. On the other hand, despite warnings all over our website about volatility and rapidly changing prices some still thought we were somehow responsible for their less than ideal timing.
On these 2 coin sets, we took a brand new strategy. Price at the lowest possible mark up despite what others are doing (we started at $229 and there was at least one other online seller at $299 at that time) because the issue was a strike to demand. The wrench was thrown into the equation when the mint announced a second ship date because we did not go full guns in on initial ordering quantity thinking we could order more and still get FS/FR. At least in this case, we made a lot of customers very happy.
No matter how much you analyze a new product, as you stated it's impossible to get it right every time.
So did we get ithese two situations right? I don't think so. However, by not over-pricing in either case (based on current market conditions at the time of sale) I sleep well at night.
John
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
OK, the original shipping date was 7/27. When sales approached just under 150,000 over the weekend of 6/23-24, drei3ree said the date changed to 9/28. Mach19 reports the current shipping date is now 10/31 as sales near 220,000. There appears to be three batches of cases and or coin pressings possibly causing these increasing ship dates. Does anybody have a different ship date on their order?
I didn't think there would be a counter update today but........245,131 +27,780. WOW! That's a huge jump. Any question that 250,000 will be surpassed with 2 more counter reports to go?
<< <i>Don't look if you have a weak stomach....................
245,000 on todays update.
300,000+ is looking possible......................... >>
I predicted 227,000 last week.
It will be interesting if the last minute orders crash the system. I'm thinking probably not as some of the big players maybe putting in large orders, unlike the 20,000 or so orders that crashed during last year's fiasco.
Here's the latest chart: This is the first time I have used the Excel function FORECAST. It may be more prescient if the data points are more linear. However, the Polynomial Trend Line does seem to show a better track. Yesterday it's projection fell right on the actual count. Maybe someone trained in statistics can explain it better. I am a complete novice.
Anyway, because of mail order transit time and mint processing, I'm going to track the counter for one more week. I will edit the initial post of this thread, like I have been doing, to post this info. If your interested you can quickly check in this first post all next week.
Comments
Well, just Love coins, period.
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
A Truth That's Told With Bad Intent
Beats All The Lies You Can Invent
EDIT: Any chance the Mint offers these as singles?
<< <i>Any chance the Mint offers these as singles? >>
Two chances; Nil and Next to None
<< <i>Because the assumption was that they would not introduce a second ship date which changed the landscape. Therefore those that decided to wait will not get the FS but if they want in they still need to order. >>
Yep....and this was something I posted about when they first went on sale.....I made a very educated guess, knowing how the mint works, and, when folks said they would just wait to order at the end, I warned that this would be a possibility about the shipping time and FS/ER.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i>Gonna take a chance and buy em on Ebay after the flood.
EDIT: Any chance the Mint offers these as singles? >>
I'm with you. Going to sit back and wait a bit.
Grab the popcorn!
IMO, I think the price is a little too agressive. Considering the website posted a new price of $259 per set yesterday (which seemed to be a good price point), and emails to "subscribers" went out that "they would be available in the later afternoon" - I tried their website and they never became available.
Of course, available this morning for another $30 bucks a set at $289.
Thanks anyway. Not for me at that price.
So, I guess there is demand at 289+, this makes the story better for the earlier ordered sets, the ones that could receive ER/FS.
<< <i>MCM back up at 289 per set (NGC70)
IMO, I think the price is a little too agressive. Considering the website posted a new price of $259 per set yesterday, and emails to "subscribers" went out that "they would be available in the later afternoon" - never happened.
Of course, like clockwork, available this morning for another $30 bucks a set at $289.
Thanks anyway. Your might as well submit your own, and make 70 sets at around 230 all in. >>
We honored many hundreds of 70 sets at $229, again many at $259 yesterday (yes, it did happen briefly and sold out), and yes we are now at $289. "Aggressive"? all I know is they keep selling and we will need to pull all the ER/FR in a matter of a day or two if we don't find additional supply. We will sell non FS/FR at some point soon.
No one including myself knew for certain that a wrench would be thrown into this with two different ship dates.
John
They can price at whatever they see fit and appropriate based on supply and demand. If $289 is the price, or $300, or even $320--- then so be it.
<< <i>again many at $259 yesterday >>
However, yesterday, after receiving emails about being available in the late afternoon - I monitored the website at that time to buy at $259....it never became available.
So - yesterday there must have been a problem with the website availability. It would have been good to offer those who received those emails (subscribers) the ability to order at $259 this morning.
That's my 2 cents.
Thanks,
John
<< <i>Many have asked about PCGS sets >>
Thanks - in advance -
for "advance warning" of the sale of these sets.
As for yesterday, I dont know of any 30 minute period where they were available. I was on from 3 to 6 pm. Prior to that they were out of stock as well.
Would have been nice to offer those subscribers attempting to get the product yesterday the 259 price.......but thats just my opinion.
Again - just my 2 cents.
Box of 20
<< <i>What is aftermarket price estimate if numbers come in close to 300,000?? >>
I'm predicting that the OGP 75th will always sell at a premium to the Mint's price. However. unless you have 70's, graded sets probably break even for at least a year.
7/8--- Don't know what else to say other than: I PERSONALLY added some quantity to the website at $259, and watched it disappear.
Granted, most of the $259 sets were call backs and those never appeared on the website.
John
Will you be purchasing FS eligible sealed sets on BST?
Joe
70 sets went from 229 to 259 to 289 and those are all but gone now. I may post a BST buy still thinking about it. Probably will.....
John
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
Eric
I have 2 boxes of 10 sets coming and was planning to submit one box.
As has been mentioned it will be tough to get sets FS eligible if not already ordered and Mint ships in two phases as they have led to believe.
Joe
Will there be a counter update tomorrow? Stay tuned.
So...Eric...as the man with probably the most knowledge of this series...what would be a "good" number from a future collectibility point of view?
However, mail orders should be accepted after the deadline if post marked no later than July 5th per the customer service person at the 800 number. So I will keep tracking the counter for 1 week after the official closing of the gate.
<< <i><<217,000 is rolling now. Mid to High 200s here we come if this keeps up.>>
So...Eric...as the man with probably the most knowledge of this series...what would be a "good" number from a future collectibility point of view? >>
I would like to see the 2012S issues come in at roughly 250,000. If somehow they go over 300,000 I think it will hurt the coins badly. Go look at the early to mind 90s ASE proofs as a reference. They did not "run" much with the exception of some lower pop 70s. Just too many of them.
and they have it right now with these sets. Kudos to their market timing. Can't be right all the time; yet, 51% or better will do.
<< <i>I wonder how long the cancel box will remain. >>
My order still says "In Process" "Back ordered, expected to ship 7/27" and the cancel box is there.
I was thinking this on Sunday:
"I'm guessing, and only a guess (no Guess The ... thread to follow ) that the cancel box will disappear for the earlier shipping date orders shortly after sales officially close. Maybe as soon as the week of July 8-14. The later shipping date delete box possibly two or three weeks later. I will keep checking for that check box's departure. Some one with a later ship date will have to report when theirs goes away."
I'm sticking with this till the mint proves me wrong.
<< <i>John Maben and the MCM crew had it right with the graded ATB's when they sold them during the height of the rush....
and they have it right now with these sets. Kudos to their market timing. Can't be right all the time; yet, 51% or better will do. >>
That's a really nice compliment but not sure it's true.
On the ATB sets, we sold many graded sets at numbers that are now way too high but were the lowest prices we could find at the time. Generally, we ignored all the BINS on eBay, looked at completed sales and then priced well below those. On the one hand, nice profits were made. On the other hand, despite warnings all over our website about volatility and rapidly changing prices some still thought we were somehow responsible for their less than ideal timing.
On these 2 coin sets, we took a brand new strategy. Price at the lowest possible mark up despite what others are doing (we started at $229 and there was at least one other online seller at $299 at that time) because the issue was a strike to demand. The wrench was thrown into the equation when the mint announced a second ship date because we did not go full guns in on initial ordering quantity thinking we could order more and still get FS/FR. At least in this case, we made a lot of customers very happy.
No matter how much you analyze a new product, as you stated it's impossible to get it right every time.
So did we get ithese two situations right? I don't think so. However, by not over-pricing in either case (based on current market conditions at the time of sale) I sleep well at night.
John
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
There appears to be three batches of cases and or coin pressings possibly causing these increasing ship dates. Does anybody have a different ship date on their order?
One order on Thurs and one on Fri.
Joe
245,000 on todays update.
300,000+ is looking possible.........................
<< <i>Don't look if you have a weak stomach....................
245,000 on todays update.
300,000+ is looking possible......................... >>
I predicted 227,000 last week.
It will be interesting if the last minute orders crash the system. I'm thinking probably not as some of the big players maybe putting in large orders, unlike the 20,000 or so orders that crashed during last year's fiasco.
Maybe a reverse of 2013??
This is the first time I have used the Excel function FORECAST. It may be more prescient if the data points are more linear. However, the Polynomial Trend Line does seem to show a better track. Yesterday it's projection fell right on the actual count. Maybe someone trained in statistics can explain it better. I am a complete novice.
Anyway, because of mail order transit time and mint processing, I'm going to track the counter for one more week. I will edit the initial post of this thread, like I have been doing, to post this info. If your interested you can quickly check in this first post all next week.
- if thats the case - the postmark - we can see numbers rise throughout next week for late receipts of "mail" ordered sets
We know where the money will be made on these sets - in ER and FS of the first 150k.
Without even getting into the merits of ER/FS labels I'll say the market place gives more value to ER/FS label if it is applied to a small % of total.
150,000 ER/FS labels out of 300,000 sets may not give much value long term.
The true "final" number may yet turn out lower than initially indicated by the sales counter.
300k is not out of reach but I doubt it... (yeah, right!)
There will be some last day cancellations of the later orders so that will adjust the final number down a bit