<< <i>Rebellion among ASE collectors. A rehash of the 1995 W. Not as bad but a 100% premium is still price gouging. >>
I was surprised at the $149 price too and felt a little gouged. $119 or even $129 seemed more reasonable. At what point would you consider there not to be any gouging taking into account that both are proof coins and have "Deluxe", sort of, packaging?
This set will be a big disappointment to those that are looking for a winner....not gonna happen. The Mint should learn a lesson from the Perth Mint....Price gouging numismatic products will come back to bite you in the behind. Final sales figures.. less than 200k..My guess, around 175k.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>OPA says: This set will be a big disappointment to those that are looking for a winner....not gonna happen. The Mint should learn a lesson from the Perth Mint....Price gouging numismatic products will come back to bite you in the behind. Final sales figures.. less than 200k..My guess, around 175k. >>
<< <i>This set will be a big disappointment to those that are looking for a winner....not gonna happen. The Mint should learn a lesson from the Perth Mint....Price gouging numismatic products will come back to bite you in the behind. Final sales figures.. less than 200k..My guess, around 175k. >>
At that number (175k) you closest comparison is the 06 anniversary set. Those sets wholesale at 275-300. Remove the regular proof and you have $250.
I think you could be looking at a $250 price tag on this set if numbers are that low.
<< <i>I think some are giving way too much credibility to the "counter." >>
My thoughts too. If there were a way to fool the speculators then manipulating that counter would be on the top of the list. I'd still rather have it than not.
So - a 67% return would be a big disappointment?
If it were 67% after grading fees, eBay fees and shipping fees involved then I'd be into it. But unfortunately once those are taken into account the endeavor quickly falls in line with many other investments IMO.
I used the forecast function in excel and using the daily counter sales summary numbers posted by the OP, excel says 267,969. That's just based on the numbers at their current rate, doesn't take into account a final sales rush.
<< <i>I used the forecast function in excel and using the daily counter sales summary numbers posted by the OP, excel says 267,969. That's just based on the numbers at their current rate, doesn't take into account a final sales rush. >>
So, is this your official guess? Nothing wrong with using any help you can come up with.
<< <i>I used the forecast function in excel and using the daily counter sales summary numbers posted by the OP, excel says 267,969. That's just based on the numbers at their current rate, doesn't take into account a final sales rush. >>
So, is this your official guess? Nothing wrong with using any help you can come up with. >>
I have a guess...I'd be willing to bet that if you haven't already ordered, you have ZERO chance of getting your sets in time to get the First Strike designation. I ordered some 25th sets near the end of the cutoff and did not get them in time for FS--and that was with 100,000 sets.
Not a good tool - it's using average units and forecasting the same over the next 20 or so days.
Run rate over the last few days has been around 3k units/day; I could see those tailing off to 2k or 1k units a day - and then ramp right up on the last day,
Not a good tool - it's using average units and forecasting the same over the next 20 or so days.
Run rate over the last few days has been around 3k units/day; I could see those tailing off to 2k or 1k units a day - and then ramp right up on the last day,
I guess 60k units the last day. >>
Yeah, I agree. The first weekend of unreported sales gets into the average and distorts / skews the final number upward in the spreadsheet.
But, FTR, I think 60K on the last day is optimistic.
Good points. I may have figured it out. At least I'm getting reasonable numbers. I'll post my figures after the guessing closes Sunday. Then I'll update the first post in the thread to reflect the running forecast day by day as new numbers go up at the Mint.
A day and a half to post your prediction if you haven't done so yet. I'm sure you have a number in mind. Come on, no one will laugh at your guess of 1,000,000 sets. Well, 1,000,000, really???
<< <i>When will that Coin Shopping Channel jump in? I expect to see a big bump in sales one day from those puppies.
Will it be on the last day? >>
Unless they already jumped. If the Mint ships by order date, they would want to get them off to the graders as soon as possible and would order on the first day. They may make another buy if it looks like the mintage is comparatively low.
Here is something that people may want to think about. In a potentially very clever way the US mint may be maximizing sales (at east in terms of units sold compared to other special sets, i.e. 25th anniversary) at the same time securing a relatively low "household limit" without actually imposing a strict household limit. If the mint does not ship these until the availability period is over, the mintage will likely be very low because all of the people that ordered early and hoping for a quick flip and then maybe another re-buy or two will be out of luck (a round about way of imposing an indirect household limit). Since these buyers would be unable to unload the early buys and will gain no information about the demand, they would be less likely to add quantity to their order during the availability window. I bought 10 sets with the speculation that early graded sets may sell at a premium but if they do not ship soon, I will not be able to re-buy for additional flip opportunities. I probably could have explained that a lot more clearly, but I was in a hurry - essentially delaying shipment until July will eliminate a bunch of flippers due to the loss of early information on price/demand.
There were 46 guesses The High guess was 601,000 The Low guess was 180,001 The Average of all 46 guesses is 310,407
Thanks to epcjimi1 post about Excel doing a forecast, I made up a spread sheet to track the Mint's counter numbers and forecast the final number. As more sales numbers get updated, the forecast will become more accurate. The current forecast using the Friday June 8th counter through the Friday June 15th counter is 271,718. I think this may be high. We shall see.
I interpolated the Saturday and Sunday counter numbers creating pseudo entries so a smoother calculation could be done. No false bumps for weekend sales.
I will edit the first post in this thread each day to reflect the newest poster counter numbers and the updated Excel forecast.
Of course, it remains to be seen what will happen in the last week. Will there be burst of orders if the mintage looks like it is going to be relatively low? I can't really figure this in because it may or may not happen.
Here's a graph out to 40 days correlating the current Us Mint actual sales vs KBG's forecast numbers from his spreadsheet. I put a vertical line at 28 days out to mark the end of sales and reflect the current accuracy I think is in the data known. As actual sales data is added by the Mint and additional forecast numbers are calculated, I think the curves will come together.
Then again, if everyone goes out and buys 80K of these S mint proofs on the last day, then all bets are off.
LOL Once I got started, I just couldn't stop ! I know, I'm a little weird, but I like playing with Excel, so I had a good time yesterday puzzling this all out.
Did you guys notice that the new 4 week sales program looks much like page 47 of the new moderns book?
It was written last fall. KP and Mint marketing has a little conference call in regard to page 47 and executed the contents. The program is now back loaded on sales just as 7/8 pointed out.
No regression analysis needed. Your forecast fails on the last day.
The key is in the volume and the USM's ability to deal with those volumes thru their pipes on the last day. >>
I see your reasoning, as far as it goes. However, the rate of daily sales is falling of at an anticipated rate and not holding steady at 3k a day. I predict the daily sales rate in the mid 1,000's in next weeks Friday report and falling under 1,000 a day early in the following week of June 25th.
I agree there will be a sales jump in the last couple of days. I don't know if they will reach 60K. That's a pretty big percentage of first day sales. I'm going to be somewhat more conservative and put total sales from Friday's counter of 131,512 at 50-60K for a final sales number of 180,000 to 190,000. It all hinges on how much people want to get a low mintage set, if sales stay at current levels, and place orders, even if ordering on the last day will negatively effect that low mintage status, defeating the whole idea of getting in on a low mintage set.
The last weeks sales are so up in the air in fact, I think I'm just going to have to start a thread to guess the final day sales. I'll make it to start next Thursday the 21st and run through Wednesday the 27th. After all, I'm all set up for it.
Angry customers at the price gouging from the mint. I think the mint lost a lot of collectors because of the 2011 Anniversary Set. Replay of the 1995W. Summer sales are always weak. Poor economy. Sales ending near a Federal holiday. All these will also play a role in possible lower mintages.
<< <i>However, the rate of daily sales is falling of at an anticipated rate and not holding steady at 3k a day >>
Agreed - my opinion is "high end" daily rate holding steady at ~3k per day. I think the rate will fall as well in the coming days to closer to 2k or even less.
There will be a "pop" in sales on the last day - if large enough, my prediction is the USM failing to keep their ordering system up and running smoothly, a loss of time to order,
and the usual bunch of complainers that waited till the very end and couldnt get a set.
There is no silver bullet for the preferred sales method.......I still like the low maximum mintages----- modified to have very low HH limits on day 1, then open the floodgates until sold out.
Comments
<< <i>Rebellion among ASE collectors. A rehash of the 1995 W. Not as bad but a 100% premium is still price gouging. >>
I was surprised at the $149 price too and felt a little gouged. $119 or even $129 seemed more reasonable. At what point would you consider there not to be any gouging taking into account that both are proof coins and have "Deluxe", sort of, packaging?
<< <i>That will sure make a winner out of last years coin. >>
Yes I agree. But it also makes the 2012S set ok two.
Eric
<< <i>OPA says: This set will be a big disappointment to those that are looking for a winner....not gonna happen. The Mint should learn a lesson from the Perth Mint....Price gouging numismatic products will come back to bite you in the behind. Final sales figures.. less than 200k..My guess, around 175k. >>
Care to make specific numerical guess?
There will be a rush to order in the final week.
<< <i>The mint must be bummed about how sales are going at this point. >>
This is fascinating. Will deep pocketed speculators really jump in at the end, or just a lot of SAE collectors? My guess is no.
Is collector interest really fatigued? My guess is yes.
Twenty days to go.
A final mintage near the 2006 Reverse Proof (250,000), or significantly less? Well, I definitely think it won't exceed 300,000.
I'm gonna guess 235,500.
<< <i>This set will be a big disappointment to those that are looking for a winner....not gonna happen. The Mint should learn a lesson from the Perth Mint....Price gouging numismatic products will come back to bite you in the behind. Final sales figures.. less than 200k..My guess, around 175k. >>
At that number (175k) you closest comparison is the 06 anniversary set. Those sets wholesale at 275-300. Remove the regular proof and you have $250.
I think you could be looking at a $250 price tag on this set if numbers are that low.
So - a 67% return would be a big disappointment?
Can't speak for others...but at anything near that number I'll be buying a few more as I'm eating a hot dog on the Fourth!
<< <i>I think some are giving way too much credibility to the "counter." >>
My thoughts too. If there were a way to fool the speculators then manipulating that counter would be on the top of the list. I'd still rather have it than not.
So - a 67% return would be a big disappointment?
If it were 67% after grading fees, eBay fees and shipping fees involved then I'd be into it. But unfortunately once those are taken into account the endeavor quickly falls in line with many other investments IMO.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>If it were 67% after grading fees, eBay fees and shipping fees >>
Keep in mind - WHOLESALE, thats across the counter to dealers, no fees, no shipping.
If the number comes in at 175k, and you grade and retail, you'll do better than 67% return
<< <i>I used the forecast function in excel and using the daily counter sales summary numbers posted by the OP, excel says 267,969. That's just based on the numbers at their current rate, doesn't take into account a final sales rush. >>
So, is this your official guess? Nothing wrong with using any help you can come up with.
<< <i>epcjimi1 says:
<< <i>I used the forecast function in excel and using the daily counter sales summary numbers posted by the OP, excel says 267,969. That's just based on the numbers at their current rate, doesn't take into account a final sales rush. >>
So, is this your official guess? Nothing wrong with using any help you can come up with. >>
Sure, lock it in.
DATE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UNITS ORDERED . . CHANGE FROM PRIOR DAY
Jun 07, 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .n/a
Jun 08, 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .85,341
Jun 11, 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115,059. . . . . . . . . . . . . .29,718
Jun 12, 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121,304. . . . . . . . . . . . . .6,245
Jun 13, 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .125,371. . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,067
Jun 14, 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128,540. . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,169
Jun 15, 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .131,512. . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,972
My Guess would be 253,276.
<< <i>I used the forecast function in excel >>
Not a good tool - it's using average units and forecasting the same over the next 20 or so days.
Run rate over the last few days has been around 3k units/day; I could see those tailing off to 2k or 1k units a day - and then ramp right up on the last day,
I guess 60k units the last day.
<< <i>
<< <i>I used the forecast function in excel >>
Not a good tool - it's using average units and forecasting the same over the next 20 or so days.
Run rate over the last few days has been around 3k units/day; I could see those tailing off to 2k or 1k units a day - and then ramp right up on the last day,
I guess 60k units the last day. >>
Yeah, I agree. The first weekend of unreported sales gets into the average and distorts / skews the final number upward in the spreadsheet.
But, FTR, I think 60K on the last day is optimistic.
I'll go 17.5K on the last day.
Let's see what happens!
Good points. I may have figured it out. At least I'm getting reasonable numbers. I'll post my figures after the guessing closes Sunday. Then I'll update the first post in the thread to reflect the running forecast day by day as new numbers go up at the Mint.
Will it be on the last day?
<< <i>When will that Coin Shopping Channel jump in? I expect to see a big bump in sales one day from those puppies.
Will it be on the last day? >>
Unless they already jumped. If the Mint ships by order date, they would want to get them off to the graders as soon as possible and would order on the first day. They may make another buy if it looks like the mintage is comparatively low.
Here is something that people may want to think about. In a potentially very clever way the US mint may be maximizing sales (at east in terms of units sold compared to other special sets, i.e. 25th anniversary) at the same time securing a relatively low "household limit" without actually imposing a strict household limit. If the mint does not ship these until the availability period is over, the mintage will likely be very low because all of the people that ordered early and hoping for a quick flip and then maybe another re-buy or two will be out of luck (a round about way of imposing an indirect household limit). Since these buyers would be unable to unload the early buys and will gain no information about the demand, they would be less likely to add quantity to their order during the availability window. I bought 10 sets with the speculation that early graded sets may sell at a premium but if they do not ship soon, I will not be able to re-buy for additional flip opportunities. I probably could have explained that a lot more clearly, but I was in a hurry - essentially delaying shipment until July will eliminate a bunch of flippers due to the loss of early information on price/demand.
Jeff
Thank you to all who made a guess. Be right back with the first data analysis.
The High guess was 601,000
The Low guess was 180,001
The Average of all 46 guesses is 310,407
Thanks to epcjimi1 post about Excel doing a forecast, I made up a spread sheet to track the Mint's counter numbers and forecast the final number. As more sales numbers get updated, the forecast will become more accurate. The current forecast using the Friday June 8th counter through the Friday June 15th counter is 271,718. I think this may be high. We shall see.
I interpolated the Saturday and Sunday counter numbers creating pseudo entries so a smoother calculation could be done. No false bumps for weekend sales.
I will edit the first post in this thread each day to reflect the newest poster counter numbers and the updated Excel forecast.
Of course, it remains to be seen what will happen in the last week. Will there be burst of orders if the mintage looks like it is going to be relatively low? I can't really figure this in because it may or may not happen.
Then again, if everyone goes out and buys 80K of these S mint proofs on the last day, then all bets are off.
Once I got started, I just couldn't stop !
I know, I'm a little weird, but I like playing with Excel, so I had a good time yesterday puzzling this all out.
60K final day
= sub 250K units.
No regression analysis needed. Your forecast fails on the last day.
The key is in the volume and the USM's ability to deal with those volumes thru their pipes on the last day.
It was written last fall. KP and Mint marketing has a little conference call in regard to page 47 and executed the contents. The program is now back loaded on sales just as 7/8 pointed out.
<< <i>3K per day x 17 days = 51K
60K final day
= sub 250K units.
No regression analysis needed. Your forecast fails on the last day.
The key is in the volume and the USM's ability to deal with those volumes thru their pipes on the last day. >>
I see your reasoning, as far as it goes. However, the rate of daily sales is falling of at an anticipated rate and not holding steady at 3k a day. I predict the daily sales rate in the mid 1,000's in next weeks Friday report and falling under 1,000 a day early in the following week of June 25th.
I agree there will be a sales jump in the last couple of days. I don't know if they will reach 60K. That's a pretty big percentage of first day sales. I'm going to be somewhat more conservative and put total sales from Friday's counter of 131,512 at 50-60K for a final sales number of 180,000 to 190,000. It all hinges on how much people want to get a low mintage set, if sales stay at current levels, and place orders, even if ordering on the last day will negatively effect that low mintage status, defeating the whole idea of getting in on a low mintage set.
The last weeks sales are so up in the air in fact, I think I'm just going to have to start a thread to guess the final day sales. I'll make it to start next Thursday the 21st and run through Wednesday the 27th. After all, I'm all set up for it.
Box of 20
<< <i>However, the rate of daily sales is falling of at an anticipated rate and not holding steady at 3k a day >>
Agreed - my opinion is "high end" daily rate holding steady at ~3k per day. I think the rate will fall as well in the coming days to closer to 2k or even less.
There will be a "pop" in sales on the last day - if large enough, my prediction is the USM failing to keep their ordering system up and running smoothly, a loss of time to order,
and the usual bunch of complainers that waited till the very end and couldnt get a set.
There is no silver bullet for the preferred sales method.......I still like the low maximum mintages----- modified to have very low HH limits on day 1, then open the floodgates until sold out.