Here's the latest Excel forecast chart. I added "My Revised Forecast" yesterday, starting with today's posted number, after the catalogs hit the customer base and sales took an upward bump. I'm now projecting a final total number of 197,647 including 24,000 in the last 2 days. Pure speculation. Excel forecasts, as of today, 190,986. But Excel only works forward based on previous numbers and not any imagined forward projection.
But it's fair to say they when the USM crossed the 150k sales point, they flipped the ship date two months out. That immediately indicates that their initial supply must be 150k, with additional sets being minted to demand but taking much more time to mint and ship.
This leads to a subset of the mintage being available for FS or ER labeling, with the latter group getting standard labels because of later delivery.
It's gonna be close - but im hoping for a sub 200k mintage set. Maybe the later ship date will keep some late "flippers" out of the issue......
The 2006 had a low number of First Strikes and a low ratio of 70's. Therefore, I don't believe it will be hurt by the 2012. As I asserted early on, I believe the 2006, 2011, and the 2012 will all do well compared to the Mint's offer price.
I ordered 3 units for my collection yesterday. I think that total sales will almost certainly exceed 200K as it is human nature to wait until the last minute to order if there is a stated deadline in place.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I ordered 3 units for my collection yesterday. I think that total sales will almost certainly exceed 200K as it is human nature to wait until the last minute to order if there is a stated deadline in place. >>
I'll stick with my 227,000 projection from a few days ago.
If there are 50-100 thousand orders on the last day my jaw will drop.
<< <i>I forgot to say that the counter is fun to watch, since it reveals ordering patterns, etc. >>
...but very little chance that it will represent final sales numbers. >>
drei3ree Your not asking for a "Guess" thread on how close the final counter number will be to the official total sales report number that will come out later? Are you?
New counter number 166,836 + 4,255 Still a little higher daily sales than before. New excel projection of 191,368 has slowed its change dramatically. Up 382 in the last two days reversing the steep downward curve before the catalog sales kicked in.
<< <i>I forgot to say that the counter is fun to watch, since it reveals ordering patterns, etc. >>
...but very little chance that it will represent final sales numbers. >>
drei3ree Your not asking for a "Guess" thread on how close the final counter number will be to the official total sales report number that will come out later? Are you? >>
Just saw the first dealer add for these...offering an NGC 70 special label set First Releases with a goofy box for 299.99. It's that chatanooga dealer and I personally wouldn't buy anything from them.
Finally, the Mint posted the counter number. This is the latest posting since he beginning. 3:17 PM EDT. Yes, that is "around" 3 PM, but they have posted well before 3 PM on all previous days.
Anyway the number shows a big jump. I'm guessing from the receipt of catalog mail orders reaching and being processed by the mint.
175,588 +8,752 I would expect more mail orders being processed today and Monday. With weekend ordering plus mail orders, there should be another big number posted Monday.
The Excel forecast took an upward jump from today's number too. It now stands at 193,024. As counter numbers get reported and entered into the spread sheet, this forecast will will surely go over 200,000 next week. Probably on Monday.
It now looks like going over 200,000 is assured. Is this the tipping point for low mintage rarity? If the Monday number is close, say 195,000+, or goes over 200,000, will that effect the final day sales?
How will the mint handle mail orders post marked on or before the 5 PM deadline next Thursday? Will they be accepted? Whether they do or not will not effect this prediction thread or the final day sales number thread. Both threads are about the number posted Friday July 6th.
Now the big question is will we pass 20th anniversary set mintage of 2006? A finish under 250k, the 06 RP price level takes a beating. Still a good set.
Over 250k, not a horrendous set, still a decent set.
I think anyone calling this offering total cr&p will look back a year from now and say that it wasnt all that bad. And anyone offering ER/FS 70 sets will make a nice 20%+ on their money.
<< <i>Just saw the first dealer add for these...offering an NGC 70 special label set First Releases with a goofy box for 299.99. It's that chatanooga dealer and I personally wouldn't buy anything from them.
edit: It was in my monthly CW mag. >>
MCM has MS/PF 69's for $189 and 70's for $229..your choice of labels....
That price is very very very competitive, if not unbeatable......70 sets at 229.
It doesn't make sense to send them in for self grading with those prices. I will buy one set from MCM to keep my NGC sets consistent and complete. Probably buy the FS PCGS set also if they stay at their estimate of $239.00.
I wander if they are limiting bulk purchasing from other dealers? I could see them being taken advantage of if they did.
MCM could have easily priced at 259 or 269 without a problem. They priced it right. Now only if they would price their other issues competitively........
<< <i>How many cancellations will take place this week?
I sense the cancel box being removed shortly >>
There has to be some cancellations as would be usual case with every new release. But I don't think there will be a significant amount. Then, how will we know? I can't remember seeing the mint report cancellations before. Would the counter reflect the result of sales - cancellations? Again, how would we know?
I'm guessing, and only a guess (no Guess The ... thread to follow ) that the cancel box will disappear for the earlier shipping date orders shortly after sales officially close. Maybe as soon as the week of July 8-14. The later shipping date delete box possibly two or three weeks later. I will keep checking for that check box's departure. Some one with a later ship date will have to report when theirs goes away.
I wonder how fast the mint is in updating the counter for orders received by mail??
You would think there would be some lag in reporting orders received by mail vs. online ordering.
With a federal holiday coming just before end of ordering period and the subsequent delay in mail delivery I believe any numbers reported on 7-3-12 will likely be an undercount of actual orders.
For a fudge factor I'm personally going to bump the reported daily sales for July 2 and 3 by 25% to get an estimate of total sales going into last 2 days of offering.
Price indication yesterday on PCGS 70 sets from MCM was 239....
now indication on PCGS sets is 259.....
I guess even if you signed up for interest and sets your desired at 239 price indication, they will not guarantee the price until they take your order.....ugggghhhhh....
Got to love it. But guys it was not the intention of the mint to serve the wants of the flippers but that the coins end up ok in the aftermarket and that the broader collector base gets the coins and ends up happy with them now and a year from now. These two objectives will be met. We are not one of the Mint's objectives.
The structure of the sale will not allow high flip margins but does allow one to build customer base.
And how many set will have to be submitted to cover every order for a pair of 70's ? Both NGC and PCGS. Can you estimate the percentage for both companies? Out of 100 sets submitted to each, how many paired sets of 70's, of 69's and the rest will then be available for resale?
As far as the handling of mail orders and the counter, I think the recent uptick in daily sales, probably due to mail orders being processed, has been reflected in the counter. Yes there is a delay for mail delivery to the mint. I asked the question in a previous thread (Link) that went by too fast for comment. Please take a look and comment if you like.
Comments
With 9 days left ........................
If next 7 days averaged just 3,500/day that would take it to about 180,000.
Allow 20K for last 2 days and you'd be close to 200K.
<< <i>"Stick a Fork in it" prediction? >>
I only have an opinion. That's it.
But it's fair to say they when the USM crossed the 150k sales point, they flipped the ship date two months out. That immediately indicates that their initial supply must be 150k, with additional sets being minted to demand but taking much more time to mint and ship.
This leads to a subset of the mintage being available for FS or ER labeling, with the latter group getting standard labels because of later delivery.
It's gonna be close - but im hoping for a sub 200k mintage set. Maybe the later ship date will keep some late "flippers" out of the issue......
Now I have a mental image of Lloyd Bridges jumping out of the control room window in Airplane!
<< <i>
It's gonna be close - but im hoping for a sub 200k mintage set. Maybe the later ship date will keep some late "flippers" out of the issue...... >>
I think 227,000 as a final mintage. It's heating up with 9 days left. A huge burst at the end if the site doesn't do a reverse crash.
<< <i>200K is a given. The real winner will be 2011. >>
Also, it may hurt the value of the '06 a bit if it finishes near 250K. Then again the '12 may have more 70 quality coins than the '06 did.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>200K is a given >>
Lets hope not. But these 6k day aren't helping........probably due to the Summer Catalog received in the past few days.....
maybe we will have a dropoff back to the 2-3k days.......
it is human nature to wait until the last minute to order if there is a stated deadline in place.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I ordered 3 units for my collection yesterday. I think that total sales will almost certainly exceed 200K as
it is human nature to wait until the last minute to order if there is a stated deadline in place. >>
I'll stick with my 227,000 projection from a few days ago.
If there are 50-100 thousand orders on the last day my jaw will drop.
<< <i>I forgot to say that the counter is fun to watch, since it reveals ordering patterns, etc. >>
...but very little chance that it will represent final sales numbers.
<< <i>
<< <i>I forgot to say that the counter is fun to watch, since it reveals ordering patterns, etc. >>
...but very little chance that it will represent final sales numbers. >>
drei3ree
Your not asking for a "Guess" thread on how close the final counter number will be to the official total sales report number that will come out later? Are you?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I forgot to say that the counter is fun to watch, since it reveals ordering patterns, etc. >>
...but very little chance that it will represent final sales numbers. >>
drei3ree
Your not asking for a "Guess" thread on how close the final counter number will be to the official total sales report number that will come out later? Are you?
NO, not necessary!
edit: It was in my monthly CW mag.
Anyway the number shows a big jump. I'm guessing from the receipt of catalog mail orders reaching and being processed by the mint.
175,588 +8,752 I would expect more mail orders being processed today and Monday. With weekend ordering plus mail orders, there should be another big number posted Monday.
The Excel forecast took an upward jump from today's number too. It now stands at 193,024. As counter numbers get reported and entered into the spread sheet, this forecast will will surely go over 200,000 next week. Probably on Monday.
It now looks like going over 200,000 is assured. Is this the tipping point for low mintage rarity? If the Monday number is close, say 195,000+, or goes over 200,000, will that effect the final day sales?
How will the mint handle mail orders post marked on or before the 5 PM deadline next Thursday? Will they be accepted? Whether they do or not will not effect this prediction thread or the final day sales number thread. Both threads are about the number posted Friday July 6th.
Now the big question is will we pass 20th anniversary set mintage of 2006? A finish under 250k, the 06 RP price level takes a beating. Still a good set.
Over 250k, not a horrendous set, still a decent set.
I think anyone calling this offering total cr&p will look back a year from now and say that it wasnt all that bad. And anyone offering ER/FS 70 sets will make a nice 20%+ on their money.
<< <i>Just saw the first dealer add for these...offering an NGC 70 special label set First Releases with a goofy box for 299.99. It's that chatanooga dealer and I personally wouldn't buy anything from them.
edit: It was in my monthly CW mag. >>
MCM has MS/PF 69's for $189 and 70's for $229..your choice of labels....
<< <i>MCM has MS/PF 69's for $189 and 70's for $229..your choice of labels.... >>
That price is very very very competitive, if not unbeatable......70 sets at 229.
And free shipping.
<< <i>
<< <i>MCM has MS/PF 69's for $189 and 70's for $229..your choice of labels.... >>
That price is very very very competitive, if not unbeatable......70 sets at 229.
And free shipping. >>
A very affordable price with a razor thin margin. Will have to think about sending in mine for grading with out any guarantee of getting 70's or 69's.
<< <i>Those prices are for NGC. >>
Ahhhhhh. Never mind.
It doesn't make sense to send them in for self grading with those prices. I will buy one set from MCM to keep my NGC sets consistent and complete. Probably buy the FS PCGS set also if they stay at their estimate of $239.00.
I wander if they are limiting bulk purchasing from other dealers? I could see them being taken advantage of if they did.
Box of 20
<< <i>Flipper's fork... >>
In it - agreed.
MCM could have easily priced at 259 or 269 without a problem. They priced it right. Now only if they would price their other issues competitively........
How many cancellations will take place this week?
I sense the cancel box being removed shortly
<< <i>How many cancellations will take place this week?
I sense the cancel box being removed shortly
There has to be some cancellations as would be usual case with every new release. But I don't think there will be a significant amount. Then, how will we know? I can't remember seeing the mint report cancellations before. Would the counter reflect the result of sales - cancellations? Again, how would we know?
I'm guessing, and only a guess (no Guess The ... thread to follow
Waiting for a final mintage on these will be the really interesting thing. Could take a good while to ever see that one.
You would think there would be some lag in reporting orders received by mail vs. online ordering.
With a federal holiday coming just before end of ordering period and the subsequent delay in mail delivery I believe any numbers reported on 7-3-12 will likely be an undercount of actual orders.
For a fudge factor I'm personally going to bump the reported daily sales for July 2 and 3 by 25% to get an estimate of total sales going into last 2 days of offering.
<< <i>What do you suppose the Mint will do with returns after the ordering period is way gone and orders have begun to ship? >>
Destroy them - just like the 85,000+ UHR's that were minted and unsold at closure of ordering period.
Glad I got in on some.
UPDATE: MCM sets.....
Look like items are still "out of stock", now there is a two set limit, and the price has increased to $259 for 70 sets.......
now indication on PCGS sets is 259.....
I guess even if you signed up for interest and sets your desired at 239 price indication, they will not guarantee the price until they take your order.....ugggghhhhh....
come on John - let us place the order!!
Seller- thebigeng; morgansforever; bolivarshagnasty
Buyer-nibanny; derryb; zubie; smittys; konsole; tootawl; socalbigmark; fullcameo; coinkid855
Money has been paid to MCM. Those are locked.
Got to love it. But guys it was not the intention of the mint to serve the wants of the flippers but that the coins end up ok in the aftermarket and that the broader collector base gets the coins and ends up happy with them now and a year from now. These two objectives will be met. We are not one of the Mint's objectives.
The structure of the sale will not allow high flip margins but does allow one to build customer base.
Eric
As far as the handling of mail orders and the counter, I think the recent uptick in daily sales, probably due to mail orders being processed, has been reflected in the counter. Yes there is a delay for mail delivery to the mint. I asked the question in a previous thread (Link) that went by too fast for comment. Please take a look and comment if you like.
3 days to go. This is getting a little exciting.
<< <i>Weekend counter numbers just up on the web page: 201,059 + 25,471. Thats quite a bump
Probably MCM reordering after getting so many requests.
<< <i>
<< <i>Weekend counter numbers just up on the web page: 201,059 + 25,471. Thats quite a bump
Probably MCM reordering after getting so many requests.
Kinda makes ya wonder if they will get delivery of those new additional orders in time to get ER labels as advertised.....
<< <i>Looks like 250K might be possible. >>
I think even 250k is toast....300k might be safe