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"OFFICIAL" 75th Anniversary "S" ASE Set Final Sales Prediction

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  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Does anybody remember how long it typically is after sales close that the official mintage number is published?
    edited to add: I found info in the Mint News Blog, mintage's but not reporting dates.
    "The 25th Anniversary Set, which contained the unique 2011-S Uncirculated and 2011-P Reverse Proof Silver Eagles had a total mintage of 100,000. This made the two unique coins tied for the second lowest mintage (non-variety) numismatic issue after the 1995-W Proof, which had a mere 30,125.
    The 20th Anniversary Set, which contained the unique 2006-P Reverse Proof, had a final audited mintage of 248,875.
    The lowest mintage regular proof of the series is the 1994-P Proof Silver Eagle with a final mintage of 372,168.
    This year’s regular issue 2012-W Proof Silver Eagle debuted with sales of 299,539 after four days of availability. The latest figures indicate sales have reached 404,985."


    It doesn't say on the mint site that mail orders need to be post marked on or before July 5th. I was told this by customer service when I asked. I'll check again in the morning

  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭


    << <i>It doesn't say on the mint site that mail orders need to be post marked on or before July 5th >>



    I would guarantee the postmark of July 5th will matter, as you cant order after July 5 - 5pm.

    What I would like to know is if the USM must RECEIVE the mail on or before July 5th - 5pm, or is the postmark of July 5th good enough, even if received by the USM on July 6,7,8 or ?

    The latter allows the ticker to keep incrememnting up beyond tomorrow......
  • MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,324 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Fortuitous Fork........

    in it.

    Some are fortuitous and some are clever.

    The "Early Releaser's" are the latter.
    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    If there is any money in this offering

    It will be in ER/FS labelling.
  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>It doesn't say on the mint site that mail orders need to be post marked on or before July 5th >>



    I would guarantee the postmark of July 5th will matter, as you cant order after July 5 - 5pm.

    What I would like to know is if the USM must RECEIVE the mail on or before July 5th - 5pm, or is the postmark of July 5th good enough, even if received by the USM on July 6,7,8 or ?

    The latter allows the ticker to keep incrememnting up beyond tomorrow...... >>


    I called the customer service line, asked if my mail order would be accepted if it was postmarked July 5th but received because of mail transit time after 5 PM July 5th. The best I could receive, having been bumped two times to supervisors, was it may, or may not, be accepted. That there was no policy (this has to be a first for the government to not have a policy) that said definitively concerning post marked or received by 5 PM. There was no guarantee my order, if mailed today, would be accepted if not received by close of business today. But it might be. Then I was put on terminal hold hoping I would go away.

    The first person put me on hold, came back and suggested I get an American Express Gift Card, how or where she couldn't say, and call back before 5 PM EDT. I was bumped to her supervisor when I wanted a more solid answer than "may or may not". That supervisor repeated that there was no guarantee my order would be accepted after 5 PM and I was bumped again. This supervisor said there was no phone number for the mint director or public relations. That phone calls must be arranged by mail. Even if I was the editor-in-chief of the New York Times that wanted to clarify a breaking news story involving the mint, I would have to send a letter. Then I was put on hold until I hung up 15 minutes later.

    I guess we will see if the counter changes on Monday. That would mean that they, the mint, had accepted some portion of mail orders received after 5 PM July 5th.

  • FullStrikeFullStrike Posts: 4,353 ✭✭✭
    When I cancel my one set on Friday, after seeing sales of 300,000+, a person who orders by slow mail may or may not get that set.

    And what about returns? The rules clearly state orders will be accepted during a 4 week window. But nothing is said about when Coins for orders will be minted. The Mint could very well send returns from the first wave to the later customers.

    Good luck to everyone taking part in this new Mint issue.

    image
  • fivecentsfivecents Posts: 11,207 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Mail in orders should not be that big of an issue final count wise. If most people are savy enough to buy these sets more than likely they also have internet access. imho
  • 7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 7,411 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Caveat emptor is the old saying that DEFINATELY applies. Go mint, and thanks for scorching this one as an "interesting" collectable. I say, stick a fork in this one, and really in the 25th and 20th Anniv. sets as well for that matter.

    Dum---- me still buys this crap, and it is the old loyal collector in me that is responsible for a dutiful one of each....
    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
  • Coins101Coins101 Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭
    So, with some people reporting that their 2nd day orders now have a ship date in Sept, 2012, does that mean the first day sales of approx. 85,000 will be the only FS/ER coins, assuming they all ship within the 30 day window after 7/27/2012?
  • BigABigA Posts: 2,715 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>So, with some people reporting that their 2nd day orders now have a ship date in Sept, 2012, does that mean the first day sales of approx. 85,000 will be the only FS/ER coins, assuming they all ship within the 30 day window after 7/27/2012? >>



    Bogus....my 2nd order placed 7 days after my initial order has the 7/27 ship date

    Order Date: 06/14/2012 at 08:40 AM Order Status: Your order request is in process.

    2012 AE SILVER 2-COIN SET 3 $149.95 $449.85 3 units backordered. Expected to ship on 07/27/2012.
  • CasmanCasman Posts: 3,935 ✭✭
    250,738??

    Is this todays update?
  • AkbeezAkbeez Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    250,738 just updated. Looks like the rush has slowed.

    Guess I shouldn't cancel those first day orders? Still holding at 7/27 shipping.
    Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser,and many OTHERS
  • Hi,I think most of these will be shipped in first strike time. I thought I seen a video awhile back the S mint was already making these before they even went on sale. I think that they have already made most of what was sold already and since the first day orders have not even shipped yet makes it more likely they could all make ER/FS. Plus these orders will get shipped out faster due to you could order as many as you wanted and I'm sure there was some real large orders.Just my thoughts. Laters
  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes, 250,738 is the new counter number. The earliest the update has ever been posted. A +5,607 from yesterday. One more posting and we will all know who has the shiniest crystal ball.

  • Coins101Coins101 Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>So, with some people reporting that their 2nd day orders now have a ship date in Sept, 2012, does that mean the first day sales of approx. 85,000 will be the only FS/ER coins, assuming they all ship within the 30 day window after 7/27/2012? >>



    Bogus....my 2nd order placed 7 days after my initial order has the 7/27 ship date

    Order Date: 06/14/2012 at 08:40 AM Order Status: Your order request is in process.

    2012 AE SILVER 2-COIN SET 3 $149.95 $449.85 3 units backordered. Expected to ship on 07/27/2012. >>



    10/31/2012 ship date

    "I'm not sure the 10/31/2012 shipping date is accurate. I know it moved to September 27/28 last week, but now all of my orders are showing 10/31/2012 (including those placed on the second day)."


    Just relaying what has been posting in the thread above! But, the way the mint does things, they may still use the dart board method for shipping.
  • HIGHLOWLEAVESHIGHLOWLEAVES Posts: 783 ✭✭✭
    Three Hours left to place your BET !! No wait calling in. Have a great day !! Mark.
    Specialized Investments
  • edgaredgar Posts: 886 ✭✭✭✭
    This is becoming quite interesting. What will happen when the ER/FS window closes, will many cancel? How many Will order this afternoon, hoping for a late shipped variety, How many will save their blemished/damaged/sub 70s, and ship them back after later orders received.
    The final numbers (FS/ER/Final POPs) will be interesting image

    (l8-)>>

  • drei3reedrei3ree Posts: 3,430 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I hope there are 2 variations of 150K each.

    Maybe a reverse of 2013?? >>



    Would the USM actually throw us a bone? Maybe, but an error is more likely than a deliberate variety.
  • AkbeezAkbeez Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Going, going, ....
    Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser,and many OTHERS
  • fivecentsfivecents Posts: 11,207 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ...GONE!!!!!!!!!image
  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The set has disappeared from the Mints home page

  • AkbeezAkbeez Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Got my last minute order in for 100,000 sets.

    Or at least a couple "late variety" sets.
    Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser,and many OTHERS
  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm not sure what to do now. The counter is gone. Unless the sales number is reported very soon, the total and last days sales won't be known as planned.

    Suggestions?

  • AkbeezAkbeez Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The counter is still there on the "unavailable" coins list. Will it still be updated is the question.
    Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser,and many OTHERS
  • youniqueyounique Posts: 882 ✭✭✭
    Placed some in my cart prior to 5 and they are still sitting in it. Wondering if they'll allow me to check out.
  • AkbeezAkbeez Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Now says it will updated July 6...
    Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser,and many OTHERS
  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Now says it will updated July 6... >>


    Will you give a link...I can't seem to find it

    edited to add: No wait, I found it
    Unavailable List
    A B I G thank you to Akbeezimage

  • youniqueyounique Posts: 882 ✭✭✭
    While checking out with them, arrived at the payment page and its a no go. Payment page says not available.
  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭
    From the unavailable page for this product:
    Orders will begin shipping on or about July 27, 2012. Orders are fulfilled on a first in, first served basis. Fulfillment of these sets will occur between July 27, 2012 and mid-October, 2012.

  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    Has anyones cancel box been removed yet on first day orders?
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I just checked...cancel box is there.

  • morgansforevermorgansforever Posts: 8,447 ✭✭✭✭✭
    How soon before the flood of pre-sales begin?
    Any chance those that ordered several will part with them for less than issue price?


    World coins FSHO Hundreds of successful BST transactions U.S. coins FSHO
  • DieClashDieClash Posts: 3,688 ✭✭✭


    << <i>How soon before the flood of pre-sales begin?
    Any chance those that ordered several will part with them for less than issue price? >>



    While I agree that the purchase price was excessive, I think the 250K+ "limited" mintage and the ASE purists who must have a complete set, will keep the secondary market price high for a while. I'm not an ASE purist myself, but I'm only missing the 10th Anniv. Proof coin go be complete! That's a pricey coin and maybe some day, I'll own it too.
    "Please help us keep these boards professional and informative…. And fun." - DW
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  • 250,738* I cant remember what my guess was.image
  • edgaredgar Posts: 886 ✭✭✭✭
    I am wondering exactly where the final numbers will be. How many sets have the TV people ordered? How many sets were international customers (mail order)? How many "large orders" will be cancelled (only listed to drive up the daily counter)? How many "to late for FS/ER" orders will be cancelled? How many sets will be returned for "quality control issues" ? How many orders will slab across the street or elsewhere? and what will the PCGS 70 First Strike numbers be? I believe that is where the mid-long term value will be. I wonder if the daily ticker tally is a good thing or can be used to manipulate final mintages.

    How long will the tally ticker be updated?

    image

    (l8-)>>

  • fivecentsfivecents Posts: 11,207 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>How many "large orders" will be cancelled (only listed to drive up the daily counter)? >>

    Very good point. image
  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm checking for updates already considering they posted yesterdays at 2 PM, almost an hour early. Well, the earliest counter so far.
    We just don't know if the mint will keep updating the counter. Customer service couldn't even tell me if they would accept mail orders if they were post marked July 5th.
    I don't think the mint has ever reported cancellations or returns. We may get an idea if the audited mintage differs from the final counter number, whenever that may stop changing. If there is continued counter activity after today, you can follow it here as I will post new reply's as well as update the 1st post of this thread.

  • CasmanCasman Posts: 3,935 ✭✭
    251,302?
  • 08HALA2008HALA20 Posts: 3,066 ✭✭✭
    Just checked Mint site

    251,302


    Is that correct?


    Joe

    Edited: Casman beat me to it.

  • CasmanCasman Posts: 3,935 ✭✭
    If it is, then you guys are the only ones buying...LOL...image
  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes, 251,302. An amazingly low number cosidering the speculation of a mad rush even crashing the mints order servers. Give me a second to check for the winner

  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭
    7over8 polished his crystal ball the best with his prognostication of 250,000 only off by 1,302.
    imageimageimageimageimageimageimage

  • drei3reedrei3ree Posts: 3,430 ✭✭✭✭
    251,302 is just a number, but I don't believe it is representative of the actual sales number--for many reasons. One reason, I know of last day orders that were placed for thousands more than the counter reflects...odd, you would think the counter would estimate to the high end.

    I'll be very interested to see how the "real" final numbers come out.
  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Here's the last chart:
    image
    Interesting results. All the lines converge in a close range with the actual counter number but not completely accurate. It was fun, for me, to track the counter and make this chart. A couple have said they liked seeing this chart. Was it worth it? Sure, if only for the experience I got improving my skills with Excel.

    The final day number did not live up to expectations. +564. Really? Absolutely no swamping of the servers yesterday. I guess people saw the 250k number and lost some enthusiasm for a low mintage bonanza.
    Did the mint handle this correctly?
    One month limited ordering period mint to demand?
    Was the counter a positive addition or negative?
    Would you want to see a counter used more often? On all products? Or just special occasions?

  • drei3reedrei3ree Posts: 3,430 ✭✭✭✭
    Looks like the 2012-S proof will be a home run! The 1994 in PR69 is selling at $110 (372,000 minted), give or take $20, so the 2012-S in 1st Strike should stay above $150.


    ...just imagine if there is a die variety in the second batch of ASEs minted.
  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>251,302 is just a number, but I don't believe it is representative of the actual sales number--for many reasons. One reason, I know of last day orders that were placed for thousands more than the counter reflects...odd, you would think the counter would estimate to the high end.

    I'll be very interested to see how the "real" final numbers come out. >>


    Could the thousands of ordered be included in Thursdays counter? since it went up at 2 PM?
    Yes, that audited sales number will be interesting. It should include cancellations, which may or may not have been included along the way.
    The cancel box is still there, all other info remains the same...status and ship date.

  • Coins101Coins101 Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Looks like the 2012-S proof will be a home run! The 1994 in PR69 is selling at $110 (372,000 minted), give or take $20, so the 2012-S in 1st Strike should stay above $150.


    ...just imagine if there is a die variety in the second batch of ASEs minted. >>



    Imagine if there is a die variety in part of the first batch!
  • BigABigA Posts: 2,715 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i> I guess my prediction of a "tad" over 250k will be a BIG "tad"....but still closer than the 200k crowd >>



    Actually my number was a small tad off.............of course this was my 2nd number......doesn't count

    I should add that it is very hard to believe that the last day sales were only 500-ish.....250k is a great number if it holds
  • drei3reedrei3ree Posts: 3,430 ✭✭✭✭
    Considering the fact that 251,000 reflects "orders placed," and nothing else, I could see the final number being 5-10% less.
  • bigolebigole Posts: 385 ✭✭✭
    I know "relative analysis" is sometimes flawed, but either these sets are cheap or the 2006 sets need to come down.

    The 2006 set was a similar mintage, but runs a minimum of $300 in 69 for the set. And only one of three coins is unique to the set (the RP).

    Here you have both unique coins for $150?

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