Hey guys, check out the photo 19Lyds,put on the "1994 TDO Kennedy" thread! Are you aware of this DD? Pretty dramatic! I don't know if it is a P or D or even proof? Check it out. -joey
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.
I am looking at what the rolls of fifty 2009 DDR Cents #43, #25 and #14 sell for tomorrow on Ebay. The "sold auctions rolls" seem expensive but it seems like few sources remain when purchasing the better errors in any quanity. Please comment. I have followed the WI Extra Leaf quarters since 01/05. I think the 2009 FY DDR's will do great with Mr. Potter's $ interest in them and if the graded examples make a slow price increase when the coins are published in the next CPG. Thanks.
Well the way I understand it is Mr Potter is one of the key figures in the whole process of choosing which ddr's are going to be in the CPG so I am sure he is stocking up on the right coins. I wish he would tell us so we would not have to guess. I believe it was Mr Potter that was so against the Wisconsin extra leafs but in this case he seems to be on our side and in position to do some good at Whitman. The good errors like the the 006, 14, 16, 25 that are selling in rolls are a good buy when you figure you are getting them at a wholesale price of between 3 and 5 dollars. Those selling them at that price are making a big mistake .
It seems like the right thing to do in the case of the seven 2009 FY DDR Picks is to keep acquiring them at reasonable prices until the collecting world comes aboard. Continued interest and mutual discussion of these up and coming errors will make the "Believer's" time and effort very rewarding. If the values go up, well thats fine. From my perspective, I like to be a part of the coin collecting world and share common interests with others.
Hey Mark, its good to have you on board our little train of believers and your great name for the 7 numbered CPG coins, " the magnificent seven", I like. As more and more collectors come on board we all need to keep pressure on Whitman to keep moving forward with the publication of new edition of the CPG. The 3 people to contact are Bill Fivaz, J T Stanton, and Ken Potter.
I think that T.C. maybe selling enough high dollar rolls in order to get his cost back. Then, he may want to sit on the remaining rolls/singles and get a nice retail price for some graded coins. Time will tell.....
$6 a coin for the 43's...seems reasonable if you intend to hold them until the CPG comes out. They should jump way up in value. I've never come across any in my searches but obviously
they were out there in quantity since this is at least his fourth roll that he's sold and he's got more to list. So how rare are these actually? Worth the $6 each? How many do you all have?
Over a thousand dollars in sales for $2.00 face value in cents in the last couple of weeks. The naysayers may start looking a little closer now.
<< <i>A die, before it's retired, can strike up to 1 million coins. The average is 500-600k. >>
This is where my ignorance of the coin making process shows. I know these are done now with the "single squeeze" method (another thing I'm hazy on) but of these million that the die
produces what percentage are error coins? Are different errors produced by the same die? Does the mint automatically change dies after a certain time frame? I would think that a
quality control foreman would inspect the initial batches for flaws before allowing the die to punch out a million coins. So, the rarity of each individual error is obviously unknown. Do
you think that the CPG and other publications in the future will research actual rarity (numbers of each minted) before issuing values of each error or will it just be based on the "cool and
<< <i>but of these million that the die produces what percentage are error coins? >>
There are 101 "reverse" and 21 "obverse" known variety dies.
<< <i>Are different errors produced by the same die? >>
No, varieties are unique to the die; they do not change, but there are stages to the die, i.e. cracks etc..
<< <i>I would think that a quality control foreman would inspect the initial batches for flaws before allowing the die to punch out a million coins. >>
The Mint was under tremendous pressure to produce all the dies needed for the 4 different 2009 reverses. Obviously QC was not a priority
<< <i>So, the rarity of each individual error is obviously unknown. >>
Only guestimates. Unless they are so rare they are known by TPG population reports or actual known sales that can be counted.
<< <i>Do you think that the CPG and other publications in the future will research actual rarity (numbers of each minted) before issuing values of each error >>
The mint did not keep records of how many "Skeleton Finger" cents were produced.
<< <i>or will it just be based on the "cool and dramatic look" factor? >>
IMO, as long as Ebay continues to be the .99c store for 2009 varieties, the CPG value has little meaning. Price will be driven by collector interest.
These are all variables and we have no way of knowing how many of each exist. >>
Yes,this is true,we will never know. Just as any other DD or error coin,know one knows the mintages! This I think is the excitement and mystery of cherrypicking,no?
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.
<< <i> << but of these million that the die produces what percentage are error coins? >>
There are 101 "reverse" and 21 "obverse" known variety dies. >>
Papi you misunderstood the question. or I wasn't clear possibly......you were saying that a single die produces upwards of a million coins. You also stated that only one error/variety
can be made by that single die. The question is: what percentage of that single die's life are these errors produced? The die has no flaws in the beginning of the run I'm assuming so
eventually it begins to wear and start producing errors that go through various stages until the die fails. (is this correct?) If that is correct, then of the million coins produced where did
the failure begin? Half life, 3/4 life? Let's say for discussion that 1/4 of the million coins produced showed the beginning stages through the end stages of the die's failure. Simple math
says 250,000 per die per variety. Generally speaking 250,000 is a low number for a mint run of anything making them "rarer" than the average coin. This translates into collector value.
Of course of those 101 reverse errors and 21 obverse errors that are known only approximately 10-15 of them are regarded as significant or "best of the bests" which again squeezes more
value into a tighter niche. When the Mint produces 250,00 silver eagles, for example, the collectors grab them and are rewarded with big profits because of the limited run. To me, these
should be equally looked at as limited and rare if my assumptions (and math) are correct.
<< <i>Where do you guys come up with this stuff? >>
enlighten us Obi-Wan-Ka-Papi ...
we are simple mortals, not a Jedi collector like you!
<< <i>Something had to have happened to the dies to cause the error and how long the die lasted afterward determines how many were produced. >>
The 2009 and ALL hub doubled die varieties are produced during the hubbing process, and at no other time, ever/never.
<< <i>You mentioned the 006 as an example of one error that we are fairly sure broke early in this process. >>
Sorry, incorrect. The 007 was minted before the 006. Just because the Wexler numbers appear to indicate order, they don't; he simply attributed 006 before 007
How do we know? Because they both have the same obverse. WDDR-007; is only known in LP2 MINT boxes; 2 stages, with NO obverse crack
It was then paired with the famous "Skeleton Finger"; known in LP2 Mint boxes and bank boxes; 5 stages. It was during that time when the obverse cracked. You can't undo a die crack, so the 006 could NOT have come before the 007. It was finally paired with a non-ddr reverse in bank boxes.
Ergo, there are more 006s than 007s.
The point is there are no actual production figures provided for each die, it's all guestimates.
And when a variety starts to FLOOD the market, like your 043s, 025s & 032s, then they may never be more than a $10 coin.
Sure it's fun to sell a penny for $10, but it's gonna take more than a CPG to spark mass appeal.
The problem is they don't look like traditional doubled dies. They don't look like fingers, they look like blobs of metal, an oops.
<< <i>Papi you misunderstood the question. The die has no flaws in the beginning of the run I'm assuming so eventually it begins to wear and start producing errors that go through various stages until the die fails. (is this correct?) >>
The doubled die is "flawed" before it strikes any coin; the doubling is the flaw.
I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding of die failure and how long it may, or may not, take. The steel die required to strike coins is pretty hard stuff.
<< <i>If that is correct, then of the million coins produced where did the failure begin? Half life, 3/4 life? Let's say for discussion that 1/4 of the million coins produced showed the beginning stages through the end stages of the die's failure. Simple math says 250,000 per die per variety. Generally speaking 250,000 is a low number for a mint run of anything making them "rarer" than the average coin. This translates into collector value. >>
In your example: What you are describing are stages. Your "simple math" of 250k is for 1 stage; the die still produced 1 million coins. The die did not become doubled during striking
<< <i>So basically you are saying that each of those dies probably produced 1,000,000 error coins. If that is the case where are they all?
Most of us only have upwards of a few thousand of any one of these errors and there are not many of us collecting them at the present time.
As for them being $10 coins, that is not bad if you have a thousand of them. >>
You still need 1,000 buyers. There were only 9 bids placed on that roll of 043s
Gentlemen, I did not say that each doubled die produced 1 million coins. A single die can produce upwards of 1M coins or more. The average life of a die is 500-600K.
Where are all the coins? It's called commerce; the coins were "business strikes", not "collectors strikes" They were privately wrapped and boxed for commercial purposes. They came straight from the Mint, only available to banks, armored car services, and coin wrapping firms; 2009 pennies were sold in ballistic bags of 400,000 coins, weighing 2,200 pounds, plus freight charges.
Theoretically one bag could contain the entire run from a single die. But I believe those bags are filled with coins from several presses, so a single variety would be spread into multiple bags and wind up in multiple locations.
<< <i> Sorry, I've spent 4 years on these. You only touch a hot stove once. Buena suerte >>
Unless I'm mis-reading this statement, Papi feels like he's been burned already by sharing information and that we're on our own...but he wishes us luck
I will continue to share what information I have accrued through the years without reservation because this is how houses are built. Pitboss and others (including Papi) have been and are
very unselfish contributors through the years in laying the foundation that this house is being built on. Now we have more and more people interested and joining in on the conversation.
We will all benefit by continuing to share and cheer each other on for every new success we might have in our searches. Buena suerte to all!
Whatever buena suerte means. I think I agree. As I have said we are a small community and need to help each other grow. We ,as a group, may not know everything there is to know about these coins and how they came about but are trying to learn and trying to absorb as much information as is available to us. We also are being watched by the nay-sayers who would love to see us fail. Everyone here needs to try to help everyone else if they know something someone else does not and try not to belittle what what someone has to say.
The discussion concerning the possible mintage of flawed 2009 P FY Cents is very interesting. My take is: sure, many of us were aware of the DDR's found in the USM LP2 white boxes early on. And I assume that very few of us acquired bank boxes of the "P" FY cents early on in order to amass quantities of the "Magnificent Seven" DDR's. So what if 500,000 say #006 of a die marriage were minted, my take is that very few were saved from circulation.
Pardon me if the following topic has already been discussed; a high % of the 2009 FY Cents have very unappealling spots on them. Will this keep the DDR's cents from being desired by serious collectors and potential buyers? The high grade slabbed examples may end up being the coins that are bought /sold on Ebay. The extra leaf quarters collectors never had to be concerned about the coins spotting only the lofty prices due to speculation/promotions.
I agree Mark. Many of these did get into circulation as you say and once that happened the uncirculated coins that are not badly spotted and damaged through circulation will be relatively few. We here on this forum have the bulk of them between us. The good boxes are fast drying up. Get them while you can.
I don't find many of the bicentennial coins (especially the fy's) in circulation but of course when I do it gets special attention and examination. The spotting was caused by a poor rinse in
production and shouldn't affect the overall grade of a coin. Of course the less the better aesthetically. To my knowledge there is no safe way to remove them. Has anyone tried to remove
them with any success? It's quite a challenge to find these that don't have dents and scratches from the dumping and packaging process at the mint. It's a sad feeling for me when I find a
desirable error coin that has pmd (like the forefinger being smashed or cut) right out of the mint roll. Luckily we were in early enough as PB said to cherry pick the best of the bests for
condition (higher grades). I know the bank box boom is on right now so let's go get 'em and hope to find undiscovered treasures!
I think I'm going to soak a few of non-error spotted cents in distilled water, rubbing alcohol, and Keri lotion today as an experiment to see if they can be removed safely and not affect the
coin's integrity/original finish. Has anyone tried this already? Results? I'll let you know what happens later. I've got a couple of prime problem spotters to play with.
The "Skeleton Finger" is the toughest to find of the top CPG listed varieites because the obverse die shared it's production time with the lesser double die reverse (CDDR-006) which failed sometime during the production run and the die was pulled and replaced with a new reverse die which was the CDDR-009 (Skeleton Finger)! As these two reverse DDRs ( CDDR-006 & CDDR-009 with CDDO-002) each shared part of the production run, then each of them would have much less of them being produced as compared to one individual Formative Year DDR that made a full production on its own.
The early stages of Skelton Finger were found in one single day run in the LP2 boxes on 4/23. The Mint sold 300,000 boxes of LP2 over a 30 day window (my research in tracking date/time stamps). It would be interesting to know how many boxes the Mint produced in a day? Doing rough math, 300,000 spread out over 30+ days is 10,000 boxes a day (making the assumption that equal quantities of boxes were produced over that time period.) However, if rolling with that 10,000 box a day figure, the Skeleton Finger was found only in certain times of that day (early morning). Boxes are hit or miss. Yes, some trickled out, but the main bulk was early morning 4/23.
The key to me is, how many boxes can be produced in the morning hours on April 23? I know this is a big production line, but was is reasonable to assume? If we can figure out how many boxes were produced in that 3-4 hour window, it would really help to pinpoint how many Skeleton Fingers were produced.
My 30 day run over 300,000 estimate is the best I could some up for production span. I can't see more than a few thousand boxes produced in that few hour window however. Let's just say 4 thousand boxes. If there are 1 or 8 in a roll, that could range from 4 to 32 thousand coins. Yes some have none, some more, and this is all an estimate. Are 4 thousand boxes unrealstic? Seems like a big number for a few hours. But the Mint did make 300,000 total, so they certainly have high capacity equipment.
I know too that this variety made it in bank boxes. But those have the progressive die crack and also the full stage of the fatal die crack. Those bank boxes are not shooting fish in a barrell either like the time stamped LP2 boxes. There have not been many found outside of the LP2 4/23 boxes due to the death of the die.
The key is back to the original statement, this die failed quickly. There is no denying it. I have always felt that the Skeleton Finger is the most dramatic visually of the varieties. It is couple with a nice DD on the obverse, as well as the die cracks that not only add interest, but demonstrate scarcity from die failure..
Always looking for the fatal die stage of the (Holy Grail) wddr-006/cddr-009 skeleton finger. So far my best bank boxes had wddr-025's and 016's but alas none of what I consider
the Holy Grail. The fat lady hasn't sung yet...so the search continues. I think your math helps a little bit. Papi should chime in soon with actual figures. Keep the faith
As we speak, I'm frantically into a newly opened "bank box" I'm into my third roll,so far nothing ! While searching for DD's,I'm placing aside all the beautiful,hitless,unmarred,clean fields,flawless ones for maybe future grading? I'm trying to find that elusive "70"! I'd be happy with a "69" even. Are any of you guys,doing the same? I mean,I'm being picky on the ones I'll put aside. They have to be VERY clean,unblemished . I may have found one? The only thing is,it has a die chip on it! See ya guys! We're nearly at that 1000 milestone,huh? Keep on hunting. -joey
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.
This is exactly the kind of comments that this thread needs.
Those of us that have a lot of these coins should want new blood to come in and we should be willing to give out what info we have so that the new people will continue to prosper.
If I could get 10 more people going on these and I did not find another error coin at all I would be happy as it would increase the value of what I now have.
I firmly believe that these coins need more recognition and with it will come success for everyone involved.
<< <i>My 30 day run over 300,000 estimate is the best I could some up for production span. I can't see more than a few thousand boxes produced in that few hour window however. Let's just say 4 thousand boxes. If there are 1 or 8 in a roll, that could range from 4 to 32 thousand coins. Yes some have none, some more, and this is all an estimate. Are 4 thousand boxes unrealstic? Seems like a big number for a few hours. But the Mint did make 300,000 total, so they certainly have high capacity equipment.
I know too that this variety made it in bank boxes. But those have the progressive die crack and also the full stage of the fatal die crack. Those bank boxes are not shooting fish in a barrell either like the time stamped LP2 boxes. There have not been many found outside of the LP2 4/23 boxes due to the death of the die.
The key is back to the original statement, this die failed quickly. There is no denying it. I have always felt that the Skeleton Finger is the most dramatic visually of the varieties. It is couple with a nice DD on the obverse, as well as the die cracks that not only add interest, but demonstrate scarcity from die failure.. >>
LP2 Sets went on sale on May 14, 2009 at 12 noon
The first LP2 "sales" figures of 200,055 sets was published on May 20 2009.
Boxes from the initial LP2 run were dated from 4/13/09 to 5/06/09. They do not work on Sat/Sun, so there were 18 production days.
Assuming all the sets initially sold were boxed during that time, that would be 11,114 sets per day.
9774 & 9883 (assuming packaging stations/machines #s) = 5,557 each; assuming an 8 hour work day = 695 per hour or 12 sets per minute (all assumptions)
11,114 sets x 50 P cents per set = 555,708 P cents per day
I have found as many as 13 Skeletons in one roll or 26%. So, if we use an average conservative number of 6 per roll that would be 12%.
6% of 555,708 = 33,342 (3 per roll); 8% = 44,457 (4 per roll); 10% = 55,570 (5 per roll); 12% 66,685 (6 per roll)
Of course this is not exact, but it could indicate the possible number of Skeletons that were in LP2 sets. How many in bank boxes???
1000---Thank you all for this great conversation! ok, back to collecting and searching Papi, let's assume there were another 40,000 put into bank boxes
(probably less than that because even in the boxed sets some of the 006's have small die cracks on the obverse between the rim and coat forming which indicates that the die was already
starting to fail...which would have shortened the after-mint-box-production run to be put into the bank boxes). Has anyone found an 006 in a bank box without either the obverse or
reverse die cracks?
By your math (and my assumption of bank box total of 40,000) that's just around 100,000 total between mint sets (6 per roll average) and the bank boxes.
Comments
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.The good errors like the the 006, 14, 16, 25 that are selling in rolls are a good buy when you figure you are getting them at a wholesale price of between 3 and 5 dollars. Those selling them at that price are making a big mistake .
<< <i>Is it going to be bargain night on treazure chests listings or is he going to make a killing again? >>
A killing?
You said
<< <i>Those selling them at that price are making a big mistake >>
He will be sorry later.
I wish someone would put some 16's up!
Would not mind paying for those.
<< <i>I wish someone would put some 16's up! >>
They're not that hard to find, if you know where to look.
Seems to be some people that like the 43's a lot.
I will put some of mine on when I get them back from ANACS.
TC is not going to be happy with me on the trade we made. (25's for 43's)
<< <i>They're not that hard to find, if you know where to look. >>
Ok, Obi-Wan-ka-Papi.....where do we look for 43's and 14"s? haha
<< <i>Ok, Obi-Wan-ka-Papi.....where do we look for 43's and 14"s? haha >>
Sorry, I've spent 4 years on these. You only touch a hot stove once. Buena suerte
they were out there in quantity since this is at least his fourth roll that he's sold and he's got more to list. So how rare are these actually? Worth the $6 each? How many do you all have?
Over a thousand dollars in sales for $2.00 face value in cents in the last couple of weeks. The naysayers may start looking a little closer now.
<< <i>$6 a coin for the 43's...seems reasonable if you intend to hold them until the CPG comes out. They should jump way up in value. >>
If they're gonna jump way up in value, why isn't he holding them until the CPG comes out?
He traded Pitboss 10 rolls of 43's and he's still pumpin' them out by the roll.
Scarce? I think not, but it is one of the nicer ones. A die, before it's retired, can strike up to 1 million coins. The average is 500-600k.
<< <i>A die, before it's retired, can strike up to 1 million coins. The average is 500-600k. >>
This is where my ignorance of the coin making process shows. I know these are done now with the "single squeeze" method (another thing I'm hazy on) but of these million that the die
produces what percentage are error coins? Are different errors produced by the same die? Does the mint automatically change dies after a certain time frame? I would think that a
quality control foreman would inspect the initial batches for flaws before allowing the die to punch out a million coins. So, the rarity of each individual error is obviously unknown. Do
you think that the CPG and other publications in the future will research actual rarity (numbers of each minted) before issuing values of each error or will it just be based on the "cool and
dramatic look" factor?
It also depends on when the damage was done to the die in the process that caused the error.
These errors, unlike the Wisconsin extra leafs, do not appear to have been made before the start of minting.
Not all the errors start to happen at the same time in the minting process.
This will change how many of each error there are.
<< <i>but of these million that the die produces what percentage are error coins? >>
There are 101 "reverse" and 21 "obverse" known variety dies.
<< <i>Are different errors produced by the same die? >>
No, varieties are unique to the die; they do not change, but there are stages to the die, i.e. cracks etc..
<< <i>I would think that a quality control foreman would inspect the initial batches for flaws before allowing the die to punch out a million coins. >>
The Mint was under tremendous pressure to produce all the dies needed for the 4 different 2009 reverses. Obviously QC was not a priority
<< <i>So, the rarity of each individual error is obviously unknown. >>
Only guestimates. Unless they are so rare they are known by TPG population reports or actual known sales that can be counted.
<< <i>Do you think that the CPG and other publications in the future will research actual rarity (numbers of each minted) before issuing values of each error >>
The mint did not keep records of how many "Skeleton Finger" cents were produced.
<< <i>or will it just be based on the "cool and dramatic look" factor? >>
IMO, as long as Ebay continues to be the .99c store for 2009 varieties, the CPG value has little meaning. Price will be driven by collector interest.
<< <i>It also depends on when the damage was done to the die in the process that caused the error.
These errors, unlike the Wisconsin extra leafs, do not appear to have been made before the start of minting.
Not all the errors start to happen at the same time in the minting process. >>
Where do you guys come up with this stuff?
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.Something had to have happened to the dies to cause the error and how long the die lasted afterward determines how many were produced.
You mentioned the 006 as an example of one error that we are fairly sure broke early in this process.
These are all variables and we have no way of knowing how many of each exist.
These are all variables and we have no way of knowing how many of each exist. >>
Yes,this is true,we will never know. Just as any other DD or error coin,know one knows the mintages! This I think is the excitement and mystery of cherrypicking,no?
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.<< <i>
<< but of these million that the die produces what percentage are error coins? >>
There are 101 "reverse" and 21 "obverse" known variety dies. >>
Papi you misunderstood the question. or I wasn't clear possibly......you were saying that a single die produces upwards of a million coins. You also stated that only one error/variety
can be made by that single die. The question is: what percentage of that single die's life are these errors produced? The die has no flaws in the beginning of the run I'm assuming so
eventually it begins to wear and start producing errors that go through various stages until the die fails. (is this correct?) If that is correct, then of the million coins produced where did
the failure begin? Half life, 3/4 life? Let's say for discussion that 1/4 of the million coins produced showed the beginning stages through the end stages of the die's failure. Simple math
says 250,000 per die per variety. Generally speaking 250,000 is a low number for a mint run of anything making them "rarer" than the average coin. This translates into collector value.
Of course of those 101 reverse errors and 21 obverse errors that are known only approximately 10-15 of them are regarded as significant or "best of the bests" which again squeezes more
value into a tighter niche. When the Mint produces 250,00 silver eagles, for example, the collectors grab them and are rewarded with big profits because of the limited run. To me, these
should be equally looked at as limited and rare if my assumptions (and math) are correct.
<< <i>Where do you guys come up with this stuff? >>
enlighten us Obi-Wan-Ka-Papi ...
we are simple mortals, not a Jedi collector like you!
may the Force be with us!
<< <i>Something had to have happened to the dies to cause the error and how long the die lasted afterward determines how many were produced. >>
The 2009 and ALL hub doubled die varieties are produced during the hubbing process, and at no other time, ever/never.
<< <i>You mentioned the 006 as an example of one error that we are fairly sure broke early in this process. >>
Sorry, incorrect. The 007 was minted before the 006. Just because the Wexler numbers appear to indicate order, they don't; he simply attributed 006 before 007
How do we know? Because they both have the same obverse. WDDR-007; is only known in LP2 MINT boxes; 2 stages, with NO obverse crack
It was then paired with the famous "Skeleton Finger"; known in LP2 Mint boxes and bank boxes; 5 stages. It was during that time when the obverse cracked. You can't undo a die crack, so the 006 could NOT have come before the 007. It was finally paired with a non-ddr reverse in bank boxes.
Ergo, there are more 006s than 007s.
The point is there are no actual production figures provided for each die, it's all guestimates.
And when a variety starts to FLOOD the market, like your 043s, 025s & 032s, then they may never be more than a $10 coin.
Sure it's fun to sell a penny for $10, but it's gonna take more than a CPG to spark mass appeal.
The problem is they don't look like traditional doubled dies. They don't look like fingers, they look like blobs of metal, an oops.
<< <i>Papi you misunderstood the question. The die has no flaws in the beginning of the run I'm assuming so eventually it begins to wear and start producing errors that go through various stages until the die fails. (is this correct?) >>
The doubled die is "flawed" before it strikes any coin; the doubling is the flaw.
I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding of die failure and how long it may, or may not, take. The steel die required to strike coins is pretty hard stuff.
<< <i>If that is correct, then of the million coins produced where did the failure begin? Half life, 3/4 life? Let's say for discussion that 1/4 of the million coins produced showed the beginning stages through the end stages of the die's failure. Simple math says 250,000 per die per variety. Generally speaking 250,000 is a low number for a mint run of anything making them "rarer" than the average coin. This translates into collector value. >>
In your example: What you are describing are stages. Your "simple math" of 250k is for 1 stage; the die still produced 1 million coins. The die did not become doubled during striking
If that is the case where are they all?
Most of us only have upwards of a few thousand of any one of these errors and there are not many of us collecting them at the present time.
As for them being $10 coins, that is not bad if you have a thousand of them.
<< <i>So basically you are saying that each of those dies probably produced 1,000,000 error coins.
1,000,000?
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.<< <i>So basically you are saying that each of those dies probably produced 1,000,000 error coins. If that is the case where are they all?
Most of us only have upwards of a few thousand of any one of these errors and there are not many of us collecting them at the present time.
As for them being $10 coins, that is not bad if you have a thousand of them. >>
You still need 1,000 buyers. There were only 9 bids placed on that roll of 043s
Gentlemen, I did not say that each doubled die produced 1 million coins. A single die can produce upwards of 1M coins or more. The average life of a die is 500-600K.
Where are all the coins? It's called commerce; the coins were "business strikes", not "collectors strikes" They were privately wrapped and boxed for commercial purposes.
They came straight from the Mint, only available to banks, armored car services, and coin wrapping firms; 2009 pennies were sold in ballistic bags of 400,000 coins, weighing 2,200 pounds, plus freight charges.
Theoretically one bag could contain the entire run from a single die. But I believe those bags are filled with coins from several presses, so a single variety would be spread into multiple bags and wind up in multiple locations.
I would imagine most of the ballestic bags have all been placed in rolls shortly after minting.
I know you don't like to talk about this stuff but we do find it helpful when you do.
This is a rather small community that is saving these coins at the present time and any of your hard earned knowledge is appreciated.
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Sorry, I've spent 4 years on these. You only touch a hot stove once. Buena suerte >>
Unless I'm mis-reading this statement, Papi feels like he's been burned already by sharing information and that we're on our own...but he wishes us luck
I will continue to share what information I have accrued through the years without reservation because this is how houses are built. Pitboss and others (including Papi) have been and are
very unselfish contributors through the years in laying the foundation that this house is being built on. Now we have more and more people interested and joining in on the conversation.
We will all benefit by continuing to share and cheer each other on for every new success we might have in our searches. Buena suerte to all!
production and shouldn't affect the overall grade of a coin. Of course the less the better aesthetically. To my knowledge there is no safe way to remove them. Has anyone tried to remove
them with any success? It's quite a challenge to find these that don't have dents and scratches from the dumping and packaging process at the mint. It's a sad feeling for me when I find a
desirable error coin that has pmd (like the forefinger being smashed or cut) right out of the mint roll. Luckily we were in early enough as PB said to cherry pick the best of the bests for
condition (higher grades). I know the bank box boom is on right now so let's go get 'em and hope to find undiscovered treasures!
coin's integrity/original finish. Has anyone tried this already? Results? I'll let you know what happens later. I've got a couple of prime problem spotters to play with.
The early stages of Skelton Finger were found in one single day run in the LP2 boxes on 4/23. The Mint sold 300,000 boxes of LP2 over a 30 day window (my research in tracking date/time stamps). It would be interesting to know how many boxes the Mint produced in a day? Doing rough math, 300,000 spread out over 30+ days is 10,000 boxes a day (making the assumption that equal quantities of boxes were produced over that time period.) However, if rolling with that 10,000 box a day figure, the Skeleton Finger was found only in certain times of that day (early morning). Boxes are hit or miss. Yes, some trickled out, but the main bulk was early morning 4/23.
The key to me is, how many boxes can be produced in the morning hours on April 23? I know this is a big production line, but was is reasonable to assume? If we can figure out how many boxes were produced in that 3-4 hour window, it would really help to pinpoint how many Skeleton Fingers were produced.
My 30 day run over 300,000 estimate is the best I could some up for production span. I can't see more than a few thousand boxes produced in that few hour window however. Let's just say 4 thousand boxes. If there are 1 or 8 in a roll, that could range from 4 to 32 thousand coins. Yes some have none, some more, and this is all an estimate. Are 4 thousand boxes unrealstic? Seems like a big number for a few hours. But the Mint did make 300,000 total, so they certainly have high capacity equipment.
I know too that this variety made it in bank boxes. But those have the progressive die crack and also the full stage of the fatal die crack. Those bank boxes are not shooting fish in a barrell either like the time stamped LP2 boxes. There have not been many found outside of the LP2 4/23 boxes due to the death of the die.
The key is back to the original statement, this die failed quickly. There is no denying it. I have always felt that the Skeleton Finger is the most dramatic visually of the varieties. It is couple with a nice DD on the obverse, as well as the die cracks that not only add interest, but demonstrate scarcity from die failure..
the Holy Grail. The fat lady hasn't sung yet...so the search continues. I think your math helps a little bit. Papi should chime in soon with actual figures. Keep the faith
"Believers"
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.Those of us that have a lot of these coins should want new blood to come in and we should be willing to give out what info we have so that the new people will continue to prosper.
If I could get 10 more people going on these and I did not find another error coin at all I would be happy as it would increase the value of what I now have.
I firmly believe that these coins need more recognition and with it will come success for everyone involved.
Get on the bandwagon guys and gals.
<< <i>My 30 day run over 300,000 estimate is the best I could some up for production span. I can't see more than a few thousand boxes produced in that few hour window however. Let's just say 4 thousand boxes. If there are 1 or 8 in a roll, that could range from 4 to 32 thousand coins. Yes some have none, some more, and this is all an estimate. Are 4 thousand boxes unrealstic? Seems like a big number for a few hours. But the Mint did make 300,000 total, so they certainly have high capacity equipment.
I know too that this variety made it in bank boxes. But those have the progressive die crack and also the full stage of the fatal die crack. Those bank boxes are not shooting fish in a barrell either like the time stamped LP2 boxes. There have not been many found outside of the LP2 4/23 boxes due to the death of the die.
The key is back to the original statement, this die failed quickly. There is no denying it. I have always felt that the Skeleton Finger is the most dramatic visually of the varieties. It is couple with a nice DD on the obverse, as well as the die cracks that not only add interest, but demonstrate scarcity from die failure.. >>
LP2 Sets went on sale on May 14, 2009 at 12 noon
The first LP2 "sales" figures of 200,055 sets was published on May 20 2009.
Boxes from the initial LP2 run were dated from 4/13/09 to 5/06/09. They do not work on Sat/Sun, so there were 18 production days.
Assuming all the sets initially sold were boxed during that time, that would be 11,114 sets per day.
9774 & 9883 (assuming packaging stations/machines #s) = 5,557 each; assuming an 8 hour work day = 695 per hour or 12 sets per minute (all assumptions)
11,114 sets x 50 P cents per set = 555,708 P cents per day
I have found as many as 13 Skeletons in one roll or 26%. So, if we use an average conservative number of 6 per roll that would be 12%.
6% of 555,708 = 33,342 (3 per roll); 8% = 44,457 (4 per roll); 10% = 55,570 (5 per roll); 12% 66,685 (6 per roll)
Of course this is not exact, but it could indicate the possible number of Skeletons that were in LP2 sets. How many in bank boxes???
(probably less than that because even in the boxed sets some of the 006's have small die cracks on the obverse between the rim and coat forming which indicates that the die was already
starting to fail...which would have shortened the after-mint-box-production run to be put into the bank boxes). Has anyone found an 006 in a bank box without either the obverse or
reverse die cracks?
By your math (and my assumption of bank box total of 40,000) that's just around 100,000 total between mint sets (6 per roll average) and the bank boxes.
Thanks for getting your calculator out Papi!