I think these are going to be a keeper. I think the mintage will be alot lower than the mint stated. People who faithfully collect the ASE series WILL need this "variety" for their set. I wasn't lucky enough to find one from a mint order but I did get one raw from eBay at $190 and thought that was alot! I am glad I bought it now.
<< <i> I wouldnt take this too far, remember what killed the value of the Minn DDR Qtrs, TOO MANY VARIETIES. The only clearly visible and discernable variety is the 07 reverse, this shiney vs matte is rediculous
Totally >>
Same here...
~HABE FIDUCIAM IN DOMINO III V VI / III XVI~ POST NUBILA PHOEBUS / AFTER CLOUDS, SUN Love for Music / Collector of Dreck
For those who are watching prices my 2 NGC70s closed at $700 each this P.M..
Looks like the spike in prices this afternoon to the $325-$370 range might have been at least a short term peak. Prices this P.M. are back to $300 raw.
Does anyone see this coin dropping back under $300? Just curious as to updated thoughts on this thing!
I have found Jesse's graphs to be very informative. I also have been reviewing the eBay auctions this weekend. I think a boost to the prices this weekend was the heavy bidding by a small group of buyers, who were bidding higher prices than a number of the buy-it-now listings. That buying seemed to end early Sunday evening and the auctions seems to stabilize at about $300.
The higher prices have brought out a greater supply of coins. I would expect for the coins to trade in the $250 - $300 range until more information is known about mintage or the supply really dries up.
<< <i>It appears that the shiney effect on the 2008 w are also on the non w bullion issues. I was looking at 2008 silver eagle rolls on ebay and came across this listing. 2008 silver eagle non w This picture of the reverse looks alot like mine that are shiney on the reverse. As much as I would like my 08/08s to be worth more than I paid. IMO I do not see them being unique anymore. >>
Is this seller a board member? If so, that is doubly bad as that is a total scam auction. Talking about potential 08/07rev coins and showing an actual 07 mixed into the photos like it was found in a roll from the monster box. More hype in that auction than at a WWE match >>
There is no W on this coin, it is just a 2007 reverse. the auction doesn't mention the 08/07 reverse. Looks like he just used an old photo or an 07, probably not realizing the difference. --Jerry
A lot of people have spent a lot of money on graded and/or raw coins these last few weeks, and demand remains strong. Although it is still too early to know for sure how these coins will do in the long term, in the end it will really depend on two factors: 1. Just how many (or few) were minted, and 2. How many collectors or speculators feel they have to have them.
I may have oversimplified things or just repeated what has been already said in this thread, (no one, not even the experts or big coin dealers know the future). However, if you like the coin you should have one, the price you pay is what you are comfortable with. If it goes up in value... great, if it goes down... then so be it. Everyone collects coins for different reasons. This might prove to be a coin to keep but it might just as easy be a coin that sells for it's mint value by the end of the year.
My opinion for what it's worth as a newbie...I think its going to do well and it's worth keeping. I would'nt be suprised to see the coin settle raw in the $500 - $700 range by the end of summer. And that's all I have to say.
BST transactions Wondercoin, MCM, levinll, Zrlevin and ajaan. Been buying and selling coins on E-Bay since 2002 as Monk2580
I also wanted to add my opinion about the increase in eBay auctions. I think it may be some of the same coins re-appearing, where people are trying to flip them while they are on this rise....just a thought
<< <i>A lot of people have spent a lot of money on graded and/or raw coins these last few weeks, and demand remains strong. Although it is still too early to know for sure how these coins will do in the long term, in the end it will really depend on two factors: 1. Just how many (or few) were minted, and 2. How many collectors or speculators feel they have to have them.
I may have oversimplified things or just repeated what has been already said in this thread, (no one, not even the experts or big coin dealers know the future). However, if you like the coin you should have one, the price you pay is what you are comfortable with. If it goes up in value... great, if it goes down... then so be it. Everyone collects coins for different reasons. This might prove to be a coin to keep but it might just as easy be a coin that sells for it's mint value by the end of the year.
My opinion for what it's worth as a newbie...I think its going to do well and it's worth keeping. I would'nt be suprised to see the coin settle raw in the $500 - $700 range by the end of summer. And that's all I have to say. >>
if i had told you in 1997 to buy every $5.00 Gold Jackie Robinson Unc. you could afford at about $200.00 each since they'd be $6000.00 in ten years, would you have believed me?.. or would you have said "you're nuts!"..
with these.. i'm sitting on the "hold'em" bench.. i'm not saying "buy more raws" because i think the supply is drying up.. i'll find out when my two orders of two show up in the mail in the next week or so.. but that's not a viable statistic that proves anything one way or another.. it's too small a sampling..
what i see happening on eBay and with dealers is prices are steadily rising for the 08/07s.. raws and 69s are hitting $350.00..
now the Jackie Robinson Gold Uncs. had a Mintage barely over 5000, and it had precious metal value FAR above an oz. of Silver, even back in 1997.. the Mintage of 08/07s is purportedly 47,000.. what REALLY matters is how many got out of Memphis, and my gut tells me it's a much smaller number.. due to a LOT of anecdotal evidence posted here about pre-packaged shipments that look like they were rifled through and hastily re-filled with "normal" coins before shipping.. especially on bigger orders..
whether or not the Mint made 47,000 of these is less relevant than how many actually got / get shipped.. and i think that number is FAR under 47,000.. how far under?.. your guess is as good as mine.. someday we'll know.. probably.. right now, we don't know.. but i'll be damned if i'm going to make the kind of mistake i made in 1999 when i bought two Silver Proof sets for $29.99 each and flipped one of them for $60.00 right after i got them, then they shot up to $400.00..
last year the Mint cranked out something like 650,000 2007-W ASEs.. this year isn't even half over yet.. the 08/07s are definitely stimulating sales, so the 2008-W Mintage could be much higher than last year, which was much higher than 2006, the first year of the 2006-W ASEs..
my advice is, if you got'em, unless you want or need to cash in now, (sell one and buy your wife an iPod .. hold.. but don't kick yourself too hard if these are $1000.00 coins in a few months.. after following this for a month, reading every single post here, watching them on eBay, looking at dealers' prices.. the only gaping hole in the whole thing is how many did they actually ship out of the alleged 47,000 they made..
Sunday auctions on eBay are not typical.. more items are listed to close on Sundays than any other day..
if these 08/07s fall back to fifty bucks in a month.. well.. the joke's on me (and on a lot of us).. i don't think that'll happen.. i see a rising price curve that hasn't a long way to go to reach its peak and that peak is a total unknown.. there are still gaping unknowns and this whole thing doesn't even have a month of history behind it yet..
in my opinion, for whatever it's worth, this is the most "interesting" and obvious error since the Extra Leaf quarters four years ago.. when the late Bob Ford discovered them and took them to a coin show in AZ, he couldn't get $1.25 for them.. maybe i'm being overly-optimistic.. only time will tell.. we need to know how many of the 47,000 escaped.. and i simply don't know how we get that number..
"I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, I won't be laid a hand on.. I don't do these things to other people.. I require the same of them.." - John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
<< <i>Shiney vs matte is a die state, and not a collectable one in my opinion. But everyone should collect what they like. --Jerry >>
I think that you are correct for most of the examples but not with this variety. I have searched, quite litteraly, hundreds of thousands of MS coins, from 30's Whea Lincolns to SAE's, I know what the "shiny" die wear looks like. For the Plats it was from the chrome coating wearing and for many other coins just die wear. These are different in my opinion. These are an unfinished die or from unfinished proof dies, not over struck, worn dies. There is not a single person here who has one in hand that will say it is die wear.
<< <i>So guys, what do you think, sell now or hold?
Does anyone see this coin dropping back under $300? Just curious as to updated thoughts on this thing!
I have found Jesse's graphs to be very informative. I also have been reviewing the eBay auctions this weekend. I think a boost to the prices this weekend was the heavy bidding by a small group of buyers, who were bidding higher prices than a number of the buy-it-now listings. That buying seemed to end early Sunday evening and the auctions seems to stabilize at about $300.
The higher prices have brought out a greater supply of coins. I would expect for the coins to trade in the $250 - $300 range until more information is known about mintage or the supply really dries up. >>
take a look at the graded 20th anniv sets and theres your answer. ditch em when they have seemed to peak
<< <i>A lot of people have spent a lot of money on graded and/or raw coins these last few weeks, and demand remains strong. Although it is still too early to know for sure how these coins will do in the long term, in the end it will really depend on two factors: 1. Just how many (or few) were minted, and 2. How many collectors or speculators feel they have to have them.
I may have oversimplified things or just repeated what has been already said in this thread, (no one, not even the experts or big coin dealers know the future). However, if you like the coin you should have one, the price you pay is what you are comfortable with. If it goes up in value... great, if it goes down... then so be it. Everyone collects coins for different reasons. This might prove to be a coin to keep but it might just as easy be a coin that sells for it's mint value by the end of the year.
My opinion for what it's worth as a newbie...I think its going to do well and it's worth keeping. I would'nt be suprised to see the coin settle raw in the $500 - $700 range by the end of summer. And that's all I have to say. >>
if i had told you in 1997 to buy every $5.00 Gold Jackie Robinson Unc. you could afford at about $200.00 each since they'd be $6000.00 in ten years, would you have believed me?.. or would you have said "you're nuts!"..
with these.. i'm sitting on the "hold'em" bench.. i'm not saying "buy more raws" because i think the supply is drying up.. i'll find out when my two orders of two show up in the mail in the next week or so.. but that's not a viable statistic that proves anything one way or another.. it's too small a sampling..
what i see happening on eBay and with dealers is prices are steadily rising for the 08/07s.. raws and 69s are hitting $350.00..
now the Jackie Robinson Gold Uncs. had a Mintage barely over 5000, and it had precious metal value FAR above an oz. of Silver, even back in 1997.. the Mintage of 08/07s is purportedly 47,000.. what REALLY matters is how many got out of Memphis, and my gut tells me it's a much smaller number.. due to a LOT of anecdotal evidence posted here about pre-packaged shipments that look like they were rifled through and hastily re-filled with "normal" coins before shipping.. especially on bigger orders..
whether or not the Mint made 47,000 of these is less relevant than how many actually got / get shipped.. and i think that number is FAR under 47,000.. how far under?.. your guess is as good as mine.. someday we'll know.. probably.. right now, we don't know.. but i'll be damned if i'm going to make the kind of mistake i made in 1999 when i bought two Silver Proof sets for $29.99 each and flipped one of them for $60.00 right after i got them, then they shot up to $400.00..
last year the Mint cranked out something like 650,000 2007-W ASEs.. this year isn't even half over yet.. the 08/07s are definitely stimulating sales, so the 2008-W Mintage could be much higher than last year, which was much higher than 2006, the first year of the 2006-W ASEs..
my advice is, if you got'em, unless you want or need to cash in now, (sell one and buy your wife an iPod .. hold.. but don't kick yourself too hard if these are $1000.00 coins in a few months.. after following this for a month, reading every single post here, watching them on eBay, looking at dealers' prices.. the only gaping hole in the whole thing is how many did they actually ship out of the alleged 47,000 they made..
Sunday auctions on eBay are not typical.. more items are listed to close on Sundays than any other day..
if these 08/07s fall back to fifty bucks in a month.. well.. the joke's on me (and on a lot of us).. i don't think that'll happen.. i see a rising price curve that hasn't a long way to go to reach its peak and that peak is a total unknown.. there are still gaping unknowns and this whole thing doesn't even have a month of history behind it yet..
in my opinion, for whatever it's worth, this is the most "interesting" and obvious error since the Extra Leaf quarters four years ago.. when the late Bob Ford discovered them and took them to a coin show in AZ, he couldn't get $1.25 for them.. maybe i'm being overly-optimistic.. only time will tell.. we need to know how many of the 47,000 escaped.. and i simply don't know how we get that number.. >>
.......................................................................................................... I agree that these are keepers until we know how many. I think it's a good bet these may be the key to the silver eagle series. My guess is 18,000, we'll see? I kinda envy a few guys here that are sitting on lage quantity's. Personally, I'd dump the rejects when you feel a short term peak, but hold your most perfect one's for later.
I guess you have to ask yourself why are the 1995-W priced @ $35,000 in the price guide ( PR-70 ) $4,500 for a pr-69. with a mintage of just over 30,000. You do the math.
to board members: I don't drink, haven't in ages anyway, ...maybe a cool one with a pizza, that's it.
Also, I don't tolerate people who try to collect money for coins they know don't even exist. In my book that's a hallmark of a con running some kind of scam. Excuse me if my intolerance conflicts with your business model, crook.
take a look at the graded 20th anniv sets and theres your answer. ditch em when they have seemed to peak >>
Some of us do collect coins. If you bought one or more then you should be comfortable with the cost you bought them at. If you paid too much, then that is the chance you took. If you got them at issue price, then enjoy the ride. In any case, YOU need to feel at ease at when you buy and when you sell ANYTHING. If you sell and regret the price you sold it, then you shouldn't be playing the speculator game.
This is a hobby to some, a business to others and an investment to each of us whether we care to admit it or not (we are all watching the prices increase). What we choose to buy and when we choose to sell is a comfort zone we each need to be able to deal with in order to sleep at night. IMHO.
"What we are never changes, but who we are ... never stops changing."
<< I guess you have to ask yourself why are the 1995-W priced @ $35,000 in the price guide ( PR-70 ) $4,500 for a pr-69. with a mintage of just over 30,000. You do the math. >>
Your example of the 1995-W proof in MS70 at 35K is a faulty comparison.
Out of 1700+ 1995-W ASE Proofs PCGS has graded only one made PR70. Thats about 0.06% of coins graded.
In the case of the 2007/2008 the last numbers I saw showed the PCGS graded MS70s were running about 10% of coins graded.
Lastly there is a very, very well established collector base for the Proof ASEs. They absorb around 500,000-600,000 proof coins per year. For these collectors the 1995-W Proof is king.
How strong of a collectors base there will be for the W uncirculated ASEs is yet to be determined. I would argue its likely less than the collector base for the Proof coins.
I like the 08/07 coin but I doubt it will ever equal the 1995-W in interest or price.
Comparisons between coins like the 1995-W ASE, and varieties are meaningless. Set collectors do not need varieties. The 2008-W with 2007 reverse may do well, or it may not, but people who want a complete set do not need it.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
to board members: I don't drink, haven't in ages anyway, ...maybe a cool one with a pizza, that's it.
Also, I don't tolerate people who try to collect money for coins they know don't even exist. In my book that's a hallmark of a con running some kind of scam. Excuse me if my intolerance conflicts with your business model, crook. >>
The car salesman listings and puffing don't really bother me as much as the talking out of school.
Dhl tracking, then take off the letter from the shipping numbers...In my area they make the hand off to the usps who then delivers within a day or so...
Thanks, I just got this from the DHL site.............5/12/2008 8:10 am With delivery courier. ............its about 10 miles from here now, I don't know if its coming here or going to the uspo.
<< <i>Comparisons between coins like the 1995-W ASE, and varieties are meaningless. Set collectors do not need varieties. The 2008-W with 2007 reverse may do well, or it may not, but people who want a complete set do not need it. >>
I don't profess to be an expert on this just an observer but I would think that ultimately the collectors as a whole will determine if this major variety will be needed. If a majority of collectors feel that their collections are incomplete without this coin then it will have to be there no matter what the rule makers say.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Personally, I see absolutely no reason why this coin will not be required for a complete collection.
I see a regular version and a First Strike™ version being required for the "Silver Eagles Complete Set with First StrikesTM, Circulation Strikes and Proof (1986-Present)" in both PCGS and NGC registries.
Although this is not the first variety coin to hit the bullion market, it is still a significant coin since it affects us common Joe's that do not collect the gold versions. As a result, the collector base is much larger for those that collect "complete" sets.
I decided to change calling the bathroom the John and renamed it the Jim. I feel so much better saying I went to the Jim this morning.
Lee, I have to agree with you. There is a widespread knowledge of the variety. It is easy to see with the naked eye. It is attributed by the major TPGs. And there is clearly adquate supply to fill many sets. It won't just fade away. --Jerry
One of the aspects which I like on this is its uniqueness: a first reverse of previous year type ON ASE's. Very Appealing!!! My kudos to "EAGLE EYES" John Nanney!
what makes the 08/07s a variety and not an error?.. i already posted PCGS' "lingo" page definitions of both words about 2039820398023981 postings ago.. not that that page is the absolute undispusted, unquestionable authority..
any of you have a Lincoln Cent album?.. a new one, an old blue Whitman.. any kind.. (doesn't everybody?).. how about a Buffalo Nickel album.. is there a hole for the 1955 DDO and a hole for the 1937-D three-legged in those albums?.. there were, by the estimates i've found, something like 20,000 1955 DDOs made.. and i'd hazard a guess that 99% of Lincoln Cent collectors don't have one and, due to its high price, never will.. if you call that coin an error, if you call the three-legged Buffalo nickel an error.. then what makes the 08/07 ASEs a variety and not an error?.. it was a mistake.. isn't it a mistake for a press operator to put the wrong Reverse die into a press?.. but i don't like to speak in absolutes and couch opinions as fact.. in MY OPINION it's an error, not a variety.. i believe it was made unintentionally, and is therefore an error coin.. and future ASE albums will have a hole for it.. i dunno.. someone get Fred Weinberg in here.. i'd like to know what he calls it..
the 1995-W ASE was not an error, and there are 30,000 of those.. they were a FREE or nominally-priced bonus to anyone who felt like coughing up a grand for the 1995 four-coin AGE set back then.. you could opt to buy the set with the ASE in it or without it..
not everyone collects entire series of coins.. some complete series are easy because there aren't any "stoppers".. depends on how deep your pockets are.. if money is no object, you can buy virtually anything..
lastly, just so no one slaps a label on my head that says "flipper scum".. i am a collector, AND an investor, AND a flipper.. and where's the rule that you can't be all three at once?... no matter how many of these 08/07s i end up with, i'll always keep ONE unless the day comes that i'm so destitute i have no choice but to sell it.. and i am NOT an ASE collector.. to me, they all look the same.. ("Heretic! Burn the witch!").. i collect mainly by type.. a little of this, a little of that.. whatever appeals to me at the moment, if i can afford it without having to eat dog food... i just think this is a very exciting coin because you don't need a loupe or a microscope to see the error as you do with many error coins.. there's a finite number of them made, which is generally accepted as 47,000.. why?.. because the Mint says so.. there is NO finite number of them that shipped.. and THAT'S the number that will ultimately determine whether this was just a flash in the pan, or if it becomes a seriously pricey coin.. i'm talkin four figures.. to many collectors, $350.00 is already seriously pricey.. to others, it's lunch money..
enough..
"I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, I won't be laid a hand on.. I don't do these things to other people.. I require the same of them.." - John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
We'll see what this week will bring as far as remaining 08/07's. I wonder when the orders will all be 08/08's (like my last one). I still have 3 small (5/4/5) orders out there to test the waters.
<< <i>what makes the 08/07s a variety and not an error?.. i already posted PCGS' "lingo" page definitions of both words about 2039820398023981 postings ago.. not that that page is the absolute undispusted, unquestionable authority..
.. there's a finite number of them made, which is generally accepted as 47,000.. why?.. because the Mint says so.. there is NO finite number of them that shipped.. and THAT'S the number that will ultimately determine whether this was just a flash in the pan, or if it becomes a seriously pricey coin.. i'm talkin four figures.. to many collectors, $350.00 is already seriously pricey.. to others, it's lunch money..
enough.. >>
Don't forget, we need to subtract all the painted ones too. That could cut the available numismatic numbers in half.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
"I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, I won't be laid a hand on.. I don't do these things to other people.. I require the same of them.." - John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
<< <i>the 1995-W ASE was not an error, and there are 30,000 of those.. they were a FREE or nominally-priced bonus to anyone who felt like coughing up a grand for the 1995 four-coin AGE set back then.. you could opt to buy the set with the ASE in it or without it.. >>
I don;t recall this as an option. The 10th Anniversary set included all 5 coins.
As for error vs variety, IMO the 55/55 is a variety as thats the way the die was created. The 37-D 3 Legger was an error because thats how the die was "modified" via polishing. However, over the years the 3 legger has been accepted by the collecting community as a variety.
But this is truely nit picking to emphatically state that the 08/07 it is one or the other as only time will dictate what it is referred to as. Right now, it looks like it's a variety.
No error.........
No Variety.......
NO ERROR!!
Variety
Error
Variety
Error
Var-Err
I decided to change calling the bathroom the John and renamed it the Jim. I feel so much better saying I went to the Jim this morning.
<< <i>We'll see what this week will bring as far as remaining 08/07's. I wonder when the orders will all be 08/08's (like my last one). I still have 3 small (5/4/5) orders out there to test the waters. >>
The order I received this morning was place on 5/8 and all 4 were 08/08.
I think the big party is over but there may yet still be sporadic celebrations here and there.
I decided to change calling the bathroom the John and renamed it the Jim. I feel so much better saying I went to the Jim this morning.
Whoops....I forgot to mention that last night while I was trying to find what channel the Celtic's game was on (they didn't play) I surfed to the "Coin Vault" which had a 20 min. program on the 08/07's and how they thought the mintage would be much lower than 47k (of course they ARE selling the coins). Nice pictures showing each difference in the reverses. Should get the HSN types interested. .....and they were selling non-ER NGC 69's & 70's for $299/$599 which wasn't too bad a price considering how they usually crank up the prices.
<< <i>But this is truely nit picking to emphatically state that the 08/07 it is one or the other as only time will dictate what it is referred to as. Right now, it looks like it's a variety.
No error.........
No Variety.......
NO ERROR!!
Variety
Error
Variety
Error
Var-Err >>
I put it this way: It was a human error (or not) that led to this variety.
Comments
<< <i>i think this will be just like the first spouse... people got crazy when it came out...then ebay got flodded and dove the price down,.. >>
Silver Eagles much more popular than Quarters and 1st spouse .........many Silver Eagle full sets will need the error 2008/07 to be complete
<< <i>
<< <i>i think this will be just like the first spouse... people got crazy when it came out...then ebay got flodded and dove the price down,.. >>
Silver Eagles much more popular than Quarters and 1st spouse .........many Silver Eagle full sets will need the error 2008/07 to be complete >>
<< <i> I wouldnt take this too far, remember what killed the value of the Minn DDR Qtrs, TOO MANY VARIETIES. The only clearly visible and discernable variety is the 07 reverse, this shiney vs matte is rediculous
Same here...
POST NUBILA PHOEBUS / AFTER CLOUDS, SUN
Love for Music / Collector of Dreck
Looks like the spike in prices this afternoon to the $325-$370 range might have been at least a short term peak.
Prices this P.M. are back to $300 raw.
<< <i>It looks like Lee L. has taken note of how crooked a boardmember's auctions are getting. >>
I do not know that any of those three are forum members here.
The name is LEE!
Does anyone see this coin dropping back under $300? Just curious as to updated thoughts on this thing!
commoncents123, JrGMan2004, Coll3ctor (2), Dabigkahuna, BAJJERFAN, Boom, GRANDAM, newsman, cohodk, kklambo, seateddime, ajia, mirabela, Weather11am, keepdachange, gsa1fan, cone10
-------------------------
Does anyone see this coin dropping back under $300? Just curious as to updated thoughts on this thing!
I have found Jesse's graphs to be very informative. I also have been reviewing the eBay auctions this weekend.
I think a boost to the prices this weekend was the heavy bidding by a small group of buyers, who were bidding higher prices than
a number of the buy-it-now listings. That buying seemed to end early Sunday evening and the auctions seems to stabilize at about $300.
The higher prices have brought out a greater supply of coins. I would expect for the coins to trade in the $250 - $300 range until more information is known about mintage or the supply really dries up.
<< <i>
<< <i>It appears that the shiney effect on the 2008 w are also on the non w bullion issues. I was looking at 2008 silver eagle rolls on ebay and came across this listing. 2008 silver eagle non w This picture of the reverse looks alot like mine that are shiney on the reverse. As much as I would like my 08/08s to be worth more than I paid. IMO I do not see them being unique anymore. >>
Is this seller a board member? If so, that is doubly bad as that is a total scam auction. Talking about potential 08/07rev coins and showing an actual 07 mixed into the photos like it was found in a roll from the monster box. More hype in that auction than at a WWE match >>
There is no W on this coin, it is just a 2007 reverse. the auction doesn't mention the 08/07 reverse. Looks like he just used an old photo or an 07, probably not realizing the difference. --Jerry
I may have oversimplified things or just repeated what has been already said in this thread, (no one, not even the experts or big coin dealers know the future). However, if you like the coin you should have one, the price you pay is what you are comfortable with. If it goes up in value... great, if it goes down... then so be it. Everyone collects coins for different reasons. This might prove to be a coin to keep but it might just as easy be a coin that sells for it's mint value by the end of the year.
My opinion for what it's worth as a newbie...I think its going to do well and it's worth keeping. I would'nt be suprised to see the coin settle raw in the $500 - $700 range by the end of summer. And that's all I have to say.
<< <i>A lot of people have spent a lot of money on graded and/or raw coins these last few weeks, and demand remains strong. Although it is still too early to know for sure how these coins will do in the long term, in the end it will really depend on two factors: 1. Just how many (or few) were minted, and 2. How many collectors or speculators feel they have to have them.
I may have oversimplified things or just repeated what has been already said in this thread, (no one, not even the experts or big coin dealers know the future). However, if you like the coin you should have one, the price you pay is what you are comfortable with. If it goes up in value... great, if it goes down... then so be it. Everyone collects coins for different reasons. This might prove to be a coin to keep but it might just as easy be a coin that sells for it's mint value by the end of the year.
My opinion for what it's worth as a newbie...I think its going to do well and it's worth keeping. I would'nt be suprised to see the coin settle raw in the $500 - $700 range by the end of summer. And that's all I have to say. >>
if i had told you in 1997 to buy every $5.00 Gold Jackie Robinson Unc. you could afford at about $200.00 each since they'd be $6000.00 in ten years, would you have believed me?.. or would you have said "you're nuts!"..
with these.. i'm sitting on the "hold'em" bench.. i'm not saying "buy more raws" because i think the supply is drying up.. i'll find out when my two orders of two show up in the mail in the next week or so.. but that's not a viable statistic that proves anything one way or another.. it's too small a sampling..
what i see happening on eBay and with dealers is prices are steadily rising for the 08/07s.. raws and 69s are hitting $350.00..
now the Jackie Robinson Gold Uncs. had a Mintage barely over 5000, and it had precious metal value FAR above an oz. of Silver, even back in 1997.. the Mintage of 08/07s is purportedly 47,000.. what REALLY matters is how many got out of Memphis, and my gut tells me it's a much smaller number.. due to a LOT of anecdotal evidence posted here about pre-packaged shipments that look like they were rifled through and hastily re-filled with "normal" coins before shipping.. especially on bigger orders..
whether or not the Mint made 47,000 of these is less relevant than how many actually got / get shipped.. and i think that number is FAR under 47,000.. how far under?.. your guess is as good as mine.. someday we'll know.. probably.. right now, we don't know.. but i'll be damned if i'm going to make the kind of mistake i made in 1999 when i bought two Silver Proof sets for $29.99 each and flipped one of them for $60.00 right after i got them, then they shot up to $400.00..
last year the Mint cranked out something like 650,000 2007-W ASEs.. this year isn't even half over yet.. the 08/07s are definitely stimulating sales, so the 2008-W Mintage could be much higher than last year, which was much higher than 2006, the first year of the 2006-W ASEs..
my advice is, if you got'em, unless you want or need to cash in now, (sell one and buy your wife an iPod
Sunday auctions on eBay are not typical.. more items are listed to close on Sundays than any other day..
if these 08/07s fall back to fifty bucks in a month.. well.. the joke's on me (and on a lot of us).. i don't think that'll happen.. i see a rising price curve that hasn't a long way to go to reach its peak and that peak is a total unknown.. there are still gaping unknowns and this whole thing doesn't even have a month of history behind it yet..
in my opinion, for whatever it's worth, this is the most "interesting" and obvious error since the Extra Leaf quarters four years ago.. when the late Bob Ford discovered them and took them to a coin show in AZ, he couldn't get $1.25 for them.. maybe i'm being overly-optimistic.. only time will tell.. we need to know how many of the 47,000 escaped.. and i simply don't know how we get that number..
- John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
<< <i>Shiney vs matte is a die state, and not a collectable one in my opinion. But everyone should collect what they like. --Jerry >>
I think that you are correct for most of the examples but not with this variety. I have searched, quite litteraly, hundreds of thousands of MS coins, from 30's Whea Lincolns to SAE's, I know what the "shiny" die wear looks like. For the Plats it was from the chrome coating wearing and for many other coins just die wear. These are different in my opinion. These are an unfinished die or from unfinished proof dies, not over struck, worn dies. There is not a single person here who has one in hand that will say it is die wear.
<< <i>So guys, what do you think, sell now or hold?
Does anyone see this coin dropping back under $300? Just curious as to updated thoughts on this thing!
I have found Jesse's graphs to be very informative. I also have been reviewing the eBay auctions this weekend.
I think a boost to the prices this weekend was the heavy bidding by a small group of buyers, who were bidding higher prices than
a number of the buy-it-now listings. That buying seemed to end early Sunday evening and the auctions seems to stabilize at about $300.
The higher prices have brought out a greater supply of coins. I would expect for the coins to trade in the $250 - $300 range until more information is known about mintage or the supply really dries up. >>
take a look at the graded 20th anniv sets and theres your answer. ditch em when they have seemed to peak
<< <i>
<< <i>A lot of people have spent a lot of money on graded and/or raw coins these last few weeks, and demand remains strong. Although it is still too early to know for sure how these coins will do in the long term, in the end it will really depend on two factors: 1. Just how many (or few) were minted, and 2. How many collectors or speculators feel they have to have them.
I may have oversimplified things or just repeated what has been already said in this thread, (no one, not even the experts or big coin dealers know the future). However, if you like the coin you should have one, the price you pay is what you are comfortable with. If it goes up in value... great, if it goes down... then so be it. Everyone collects coins for different reasons. This might prove to be a coin to keep but it might just as easy be a coin that sells for it's mint value by the end of the year.
My opinion for what it's worth as a newbie...I think its going to do well and it's worth keeping. I would'nt be suprised to see the coin settle raw in the $500 - $700 range by the end of summer. And that's all I have to say. >>
if i had told you in 1997 to buy every $5.00 Gold Jackie Robinson Unc. you could afford at about $200.00 each since they'd be $6000.00 in ten years, would you have believed me?.. or would you have said "you're nuts!"..
with these.. i'm sitting on the "hold'em" bench.. i'm not saying "buy more raws" because i think the supply is drying up.. i'll find out when my two orders of two show up in the mail in the next week or so.. but that's not a viable statistic that proves anything one way or another.. it's too small a sampling..
what i see happening on eBay and with dealers is prices are steadily rising for the 08/07s.. raws and 69s are hitting $350.00..
now the Jackie Robinson Gold Uncs. had a Mintage barely over 5000, and it had precious metal value FAR above an oz. of Silver, even back in 1997.. the Mintage of 08/07s is purportedly 47,000.. what REALLY matters is how many got out of Memphis, and my gut tells me it's a much smaller number.. due to a LOT of anecdotal evidence posted here about pre-packaged shipments that look like they were rifled through and hastily re-filled with "normal" coins before shipping.. especially on bigger orders..
whether or not the Mint made 47,000 of these is less relevant than how many actually got / get shipped.. and i think that number is FAR under 47,000.. how far under?.. your guess is as good as mine.. someday we'll know.. probably.. right now, we don't know.. but i'll be damned if i'm going to make the kind of mistake i made in 1999 when i bought two Silver Proof sets for $29.99 each and flipped one of them for $60.00 right after i got them, then they shot up to $400.00..
last year the Mint cranked out something like 650,000 2007-W ASEs.. this year isn't even half over yet.. the 08/07s are definitely stimulating sales, so the 2008-W Mintage could be much higher than last year, which was much higher than 2006, the first year of the 2006-W ASEs..
my advice is, if you got'em, unless you want or need to cash in now, (sell one and buy your wife an iPod
Sunday auctions on eBay are not typical.. more items are listed to close on Sundays than any other day..
if these 08/07s fall back to fifty bucks in a month.. well.. the joke's on me (and on a lot of us).. i don't think that'll happen.. i see a rising price curve that hasn't a long way to go to reach its peak and that peak is a total unknown.. there are still gaping unknowns and this whole thing doesn't even have a month of history behind it yet..
in my opinion, for whatever it's worth, this is the most "interesting" and obvious error since the Extra Leaf quarters four years ago.. when the late Bob Ford discovered them and took them to a coin show in AZ, he couldn't get $1.25 for them.. maybe i'm being overly-optimistic.. only time will tell.. we need to know how many of the 47,000 escaped.. and i simply don't know how we get that number.. >>
..........................................................................................................
I agree that these are keepers until we know how many.
I think it's a good bet these may be the key to the silver eagle series. My guess is 18,000, we'll see?
I kinda envy a few guys here that are sitting on lage quantity's.
Personally, I'd dump the rejects when you feel a short term peak, but hold your most perfect one's for later.
Have a good one!!!
<< <i>That's a 13 year old coin and had 2/3 of the mintage. I'd take thad kind of profit in 13 years. >>
So the 08/07's should be $20,000, $3000 in 13 years??? Sounds good to me
-69 45/167 26.9%
-70 21/167 12.6
Other 101/167 60.5
.
to board members: I don't drink, haven't in ages anyway, ...maybe a cool one with a pizza, that's it.
Also, I don't tolerate people who try to collect money for coins they know don't even exist. In my book that's a hallmark of a con running some kind of scam. Excuse me if my intolerance conflicts with your business model, crook.
take a look at the graded 20th anniv sets and theres your answer. ditch em when they have seemed to peak >>
Some of us do collect coins. If you bought one or more then you should be comfortable with the cost you bought them at. If you paid too much, then that is the chance you took. If you got them at issue price, then enjoy the ride. In any case, YOU need to feel at ease at when you buy and when you sell ANYTHING. If you sell and regret the price you sold it, then you shouldn't be playing the speculator game.
This is a hobby to some, a business to others and an investment to each of us whether we care to admit it or not (we are all watching the prices increase). What we choose to buy and when we choose to sell is a comfort zone we each need to be able to deal with in order to sleep at night. IMHO.
Your example of the 1995-W proof in MS70 at 35K is a faulty comparison.
Out of 1700+ 1995-W ASE Proofs PCGS has graded only one made PR70.
Thats about 0.06% of coins graded.
In the case of the 2007/2008 the last numbers I saw showed the PCGS graded MS70s were running about 10% of coins graded.
Lastly there is a very, very well established collector base for the Proof ASEs.
They absorb around 500,000-600,000 proof coins per year.
For these collectors the 1995-W Proof is king.
How strong of a collectors base there will be for the W uncirculated ASEs is yet to be determined. I would argue its likely less than the collector base for the Proof coins.
I like the 08/07 coin but I doubt it will ever equal the 1995-W in interest or price.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
<< <i>167 auctions
-69 45/167 26.9%
-70 21/167 12.6
Other 101/167 60.5
.
to board members: I don't drink, haven't in ages anyway, ...maybe a cool one with a pizza, that's it.
Also, I don't tolerate people who try to collect money for coins they know don't even exist. In my book that's a hallmark of a con running some kind of scam. Excuse me if my intolerance conflicts with your business model, crook. >>
The car salesman listings and puffing don't really bother me as much as the talking out of school.
I think I read somewhere here how to track the snailmail shipments from the mint...anybody have a link? thanks
Thanks, I just got this from the DHL site.............5/12/2008 8:10 am With delivery courier. ............its about 10 miles from here now, I don't know if its coming here or going to the uspo.
<< <i>Comparisons between coins like the 1995-W ASE, and varieties are meaningless. Set collectors do not need varieties. The 2008-W with 2007 reverse may do well, or it may not, but people who want a complete set do not need it. >>
I don't profess to be an expert on this just an observer but I would think that ultimately the collectors as a whole will determine if this major variety will be needed. If a majority of collectors feel that their collections are incomplete without this coin then it will have to be there no matter what the rule makers say.
I see a regular version and a First Strike™ version being required for the "Silver Eagles Complete Set with First StrikesTM, Circulation Strikes and Proof (1986-Present)" in both PCGS and NGC registries.
Although this is not the first variety coin to hit the bullion market, it is still a significant coin since it affects us common Joe's that do not collect the gold versions. As a result, the collector base is much larger for those that collect "complete" sets.
The name is LEE!
I have to agree with you. There is a widespread knowledge of the variety. It is easy to see with the naked eye. It is attributed by the major TPGs. And there is clearly adquate supply to fill many sets. It won't just fade away. --Jerry
My kudos to "EAGLE EYES" John Nanney!
any of you have a Lincoln Cent album?.. a new one, an old blue Whitman.. any kind.. (doesn't everybody?).. how about a Buffalo Nickel album.. is there a hole for the 1955 DDO and a hole for the 1937-D three-legged in those albums?.. there were, by the estimates i've found, something like 20,000 1955 DDOs made.. and i'd hazard a guess that 99% of Lincoln Cent collectors don't have one and, due to its high price, never will.. if you call that coin an error, if you call the three-legged Buffalo nickel an error.. then what makes the 08/07 ASEs a variety and not an error?.. it was a mistake.. isn't it a mistake for a press operator to put the wrong Reverse die into a press?.. but i don't like to speak in absolutes and couch opinions as fact.. in MY OPINION it's an error, not a variety.. i believe it was made unintentionally, and is therefore an error coin.. and future ASE albums will have a hole for it.. i dunno.. someone get Fred Weinberg in here.. i'd like to know what he calls it..
the 1995-W ASE was not an error, and there are 30,000 of those.. they were a FREE or nominally-priced bonus to anyone who felt like coughing up a grand for the 1995 four-coin AGE set back then.. you could opt to buy the set with the ASE in it or without it..
not everyone collects entire series of coins.. some complete series are easy because there aren't any "stoppers".. depends on how deep your pockets are.. if money is no object, you can buy virtually anything..
lastly, just so no one slaps a label on my head that says "flipper scum".. i am a collector, AND an investor, AND a flipper.. and where's the rule that you can't be all three at once?... no matter how many of these 08/07s i end up with, i'll always keep ONE unless the day comes that i'm so destitute i have no choice but to sell it.. and i am NOT an ASE collector.. to me, they all look the same.. ("Heretic! Burn the witch!").. i collect mainly by type.. a little of this, a little of that.. whatever appeals to me at the moment, if i can afford it without having to eat dog food... i just think this is a very exciting coin because you don't need a loupe or a microscope to see the error as you do with many error coins.. there's a finite number of them made, which is generally accepted as 47,000.. why?.. because the Mint says so.. there is NO finite number of them that shipped.. and THAT'S the number that will ultimately determine whether this was just a flash in the pan, or if it becomes a seriously pricey coin.. i'm talkin four figures.. to many collectors, $350.00 is already seriously pricey.. to others, it's lunch money..
enough..
- John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
Great Post, hrlaser ! Bravo!
<< <i>How do I find the current PCGS pops on these? I went to the pop section and did not see them.....thanks >>
The only coin number I know of associated with this coin is for the First Strike™ Variant which is 396437
Current Populations show:
MS69 = 1,042
MS70 = 113
Since the coin is not in the registry, these numbers may or may not be valid right now.
Does anybody have a coin number for the non-First Strike™ ?
The name is LEE!
<< <i>what makes the 08/07s a variety and not an error?.. i already posted PCGS' "lingo" page definitions of both words about 2039820398023981 postings ago.. not that that page is the absolute undispusted, unquestionable authority..
.. there's a finite number of them made, which is generally accepted as 47,000.. why?.. because the Mint says so.. there is NO finite number of them that shipped.. and THAT'S the number that will ultimately determine whether this was just a flash in the pan, or if it becomes a seriously pricey coin.. i'm talkin four figures.. to many collectors, $350.00 is already seriously pricey.. to others, it's lunch money..
enough.. >>
Don't forget, we need to subtract all the painted ones too. That could cut the available numismatic numbers in half.
<< <i>
Great Post, hrlaser ! Bravo! >>
Thanks
- John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
<< <i>the 1995-W ASE was not an error, and there are 30,000 of those.. they were a FREE or nominally-priced bonus to anyone who felt like coughing up a grand for the 1995 four-coin AGE set back then.. you could opt to buy the set with the ASE in it or without it.. >>
I don;t recall this as an option. The 10th Anniversary set included all 5 coins.
As for error vs variety, IMO the 55/55 is a variety as thats the way the die was created. The 37-D 3 Legger was an error because thats how the die was "modified" via polishing. However, over the years the 3 legger has been accepted by the collecting community as a variety.
But this is truely nit picking to emphatically state that the 08/07 it is one or the other as only time will dictate what it is referred to as. Right now, it looks like it's a variety.
No error.........
No Variety.......
NO ERROR!!
Variety
Error
Variety
Error
Var-Err
The name is LEE!
<< <i>We'll see what this week will bring as far as remaining 08/07's. I wonder when the orders will all be 08/08's (like my last one). I still have 3 small (5/4/5) orders out there to test the waters. >>
The order I received this morning was place on 5/8 and all 4 were 08/08.
I think the big party is over but there may yet still be sporadic celebrations here and there.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>
<< <i>How do I find the current PCGS pops on these? I went to the pop section and did not see them.....thanks >>
The only coin number I know of associated with this coin is for the First Strike™ Variant which is 396437
Current Populations show:
MS69 = 1,042
MS70 = 113
Since the coin is not in the registry, these numbers may or may not be valid right now.
Does anybody have a coin number for the non-First Strike™ ? >>
396411 2008-W $1 Reverse of 2007 Eagle
MS69 = 8
MS70=8
2008 W Rev. of 07......................ms69........ms70.......Total
..................................................... 968.........974.........1942
2008 W E/R Rev. of 07...............3744.........3078........6823
<< <i>But this is truely nit picking to emphatically state that the 08/07 it is one or the other as only time will dictate what it is referred to as. Right now, it looks like it's a variety.
No error.........
No Variety.......
NO ERROR!!
Variety
Error
Variety
Error
Var-Err >>
I put it this way: It was a human error (or not) that led to this variety.
Dan