If you intend on selling these coins whilst the numbers aren't final, you get what the market bears. The sale you mention comes in at about a 22% profit in OGP after fees.
The USM Office of Public Affairs apparently intends to give reconciled numbers in Mid January 09.
Patience. Patience. We have been dealing with erroneous sales reports on the unc-w issues for 8 or more weeks.
The most notorious being the 1/4 oz unc and 4 coin unc sets, where they EXPLODED in ORDERS the days AFTER they went b/o, and for 8 and 6 weeks respectively, have not been received by collectors who had standing orders in any bountiful quantity.
We have also been told cancellations of orders have not been included in any sales report to date.
IMO, If you believe that all other product offerings (plat proofs, buff golds, AGE golds) were short struck and the unc plats were not, then you best sell the other products fast at these prices.
Think about the whole scenario as it unfolds. IMO, those who dont hold some unc plats will be teary eyed very soon.
The important thing is, the 2008w plats aren't money losers even at this point. If the numbers change in their favor, things might improve a bit.
At the time the focus was on the platinum uncirculateds -- late October/early November -- the Mint had not yet announced it was killing off a number of coins, including the gold Buffalos. So at that time, the analysis was right to focus on the platinum uncirculateds, which even at current numbers are coins with mintages of about 4,000.
When the announcement was made that other series, including Buffalos, were being ended, the focus shifted and rightly so-- gold coins have a larger base, and the Buffalo design has crossover appeal. We've had a number of back up the truck opportunities this year.
I bought a fair quantity of 2008 w plats. I'm not that concerned if numbers stay where they are. I also bought a fair quantity of gold buffalos.
If you intend on selling these coins whilst the numbers aren't final, you get what the market bears. The sale you mention comes in at about a 22% profit in OGP after fees.
The USM Office of Public Affairs apparently intends to give reconciled numbers in Mid January 09.
Patience. Patience. We have been dealing with erroneous sales reports on the unc-w issues for 8 or more weeks.
The most notorious being the 1/4 oz unc and 4 coin unc sets, where they EXPLODED in ORDERS the days AFTER they went b/o, and for 8 and 6 weeks respectively, have not been received by collectors who had standing orders in any bountiful quantity.
We have also been told cancellations of orders have not been included in any sales report to date.
IMO, If you believe that all other product offerings (plat proofs, buff golds, AGE golds) were short struck and the unc plats were not, then you best sell the other products fast at these prices.
Think about the whole scenario as it unfolds. IMO, those who dont hold some unc plats will be teary eyed very soon. >>
Good summation, but only time will tell. I still feel that the plat. collector community is to small for this series ever to be a substantial money maker. Yes, profits may be made, but not on the level that a lot of plat enthusiast are anticipating or projecting.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
I've mentioned before a trend that is picking up steam....
That is the "Box of Twenty Moderns"
Many dealer friends have noticed customers looking for the rarest of the rare in Moderns to put into their box of 20.
This cuts across all products and metals.
So, to determine that plats will not do as well as golds, because they have a historical smaller collector base.......maybe turned upside down with this trend....
The "problem" is someone could have purchased a 1/10 ounce buffalo for the same price as that 1/10 ounce unc plat and more than doubled his money instead of the tiny 20% he may have gotten, that is the difference.
Also I checked back on the 2006 w unc and 2007 w unc and I didn't see any major changes in those numbers once they settled down after sellout. So if the mint drastically changes the 2008 it would be something they haven't done before. Just look up the final sales reports on the 2006 and 2007 and see if they dropped over 1000 coins, it didn't happen.
Nobody here knows what the final backorder number was regardless of what some claim, the best unc w to show what it might be was the 1/2 ounce which went at over 1250. If you notice in the report it shows that coin is NOW AT 1257 so it is close to what the inventory showed. How can it drop hundreds from there?
PS The proof plats sold out all in one day which was W-A-Y-Y-Y faster than the unc coins. So if the numbers were high you would think it would be with those coins, not the unc. Now I happen to think the proof and unc numbers are close but just trying to point out that the unc were not the fastest to be gone! Anyway I am not telling anyone to sell the 2008 plat unc here as I am holding some here but we have to be realistic in what happened.
Also reports are the only bullion coins the mint is doing for the start of the year is the regular bullion one ounce gold eagle and silver eagle besides the special saint coin. All others are suspended to later in the year, and I think that includes the plat proof and bullion plats. So next year could see another low mintage year for coins in continuing series. That was why I liked the plat proof more than the plat unc but it is all water under the bridge now.
Proof Plats were available sooner than the Unc plats this year and sold in higher quantities without access to return (check the numbers, many proof were bought in May/June, significant downtrend in Platinum Spot occurred in July/August - so most early purchases of Proof plats were retained by buyers....not returned)
With that said, the Plat Uncs come up for sale in July, Sell miserably, Plat Spot is dropping thru the floor, many find there way back as returns in early August (plenty of time to return)
The USM produced some initial quantity based on market trends (sales last year, pricing, etc.) for both proof and unc plats.
Proof plats have a stronger showing (as expected) and time allows for the USM to even run another production run, if necessary for Proofs.
Unc plats sell miserably, large percentages are returned, price of platinum falls through the floor, USM cost of raw material and production is much higher than ANY repriced coin.....
what happens next?
IMO, no more production of plat unc coins. Plat proofs, not so sure. Maybe more produced in June, maybe not.
Fast forward. October.
USM says we will sell "remaining inventory" of Platinum Unc and Proof coins at lower prices.
Plat proof show much lower numbers than expected, in fact plat proof numbers on some issues are lower than plat uncs for the same denomination.
The numbers dont make sense. It just doesnt happen. The numbers as reported on the sales report are skewed.
IMO, look for a significant restatement of numbers in mid January.
Regardless of the final proof vs. unc. outcome, I like the prospects for the unc. better at today's prices.
The 1/10 ounce burnished unc. platinum, available for around $180, appears to have a *worst case* mintage of ~4600, which is 10% less than the 1997 unc. Jackie Robinson gold $5. Bullion 1/10 oz. plats are going for $125 to $150, so a few dollars more will get you a much scarcer coin which is also a one-year type with a distinctive reverse.
Even if the hard-core plat collector base is low, I imagine that many collectors may want to pick up a couple of 2006-2008-W burnished uncs., at least while prices are reasonable, simply because of the low mintage and attractive designs.
7/8 -- I think that there are many of us that admire your passion for the uncs. Also, I'd bet that there are many of us that would like to see the '08 burnished APE's sales numbers drop. I don't think a substantial drop would be detrimental to any of us. That said, I think a 1000 coin drop across any denomination would be a huge shock to most of us. The reasoning for a potential drop is solid, but you haven't factored die life. The average die life for unc dies is ~6000 coins and 300-500 for proofs. Therefore, I have read (can't site a source) that the Mint will strike 50% of the previous years sales on the first proof run (2007 was 7,900 for 1/10=~4,000).
Thanks for your passion and contributions to this thread.
<< <i>anyone have a feeling for what market price is for:
a sealed buffalo gold proof 4 coin set?
buffalo unc 4 coin set?
$10 proof/unc buffalo gold? >>
Here is a link to a site that gives a lot of information concerning gold coins. I just found it recently so I have not yet explored it enough to digest/understand the data. It appears to say the largest spread over spot has been for the $5 buffalo at 339%, the spread for $10 is at 25%. It does not appear to differentiate between, proof, unc, graded or non graded.
When will the Plats catch on??? Where's 7over8 to chime in??
I think the Buffs are far more interesting to the collector base for now!!!! >>
Wow, I sold a raw one a few days ago for just under that. In fact, it was the last of my plat uncs. Sure wish I had bought 4 coin buff sets instead of the plat uncs. At least I still made a few hundred on each plat unc set after all the fees (ebay seller fees for non power-sellers are a killer).
Here is a link to a site that gives a lot of information concerning gold coins. I just found it recently so I have not yet explored it enough to digest/understand the data. It appears to say the largest spread over spot has been for the $5 buffalo at 339%, the spread for $10 is at 25%. It does not appear to differentiate between, proof, unc, graded or non graded.
interesting site; limited usefulness without reference to grade or finish. data seems suspect--- it gives average price for the $10 buffalo at $272 and average price for the $5 buffalo at $381... I have a hard time believing that's correct
7/8 the proofs had sold only about 300 more coins or 4 coins sets per option with the added days except for the one ounce, so that is hardly an enormous amount for the fractionals. Maybe that is why the numbers on the proofs and unc's are so close, they sold within a few hundred coins before the final sellouts.
Also they made as many unc buffalo 1/10 as proof buffalo 1/10 and I am not hearing anyone complain or calling the mint on that, it is just what happened. So if it happened with the buffalo it may have happened with the unc plats, they did what they did.
PS I hope you got a rocking chair for Xmas for your wait on these coin numbers, I have a feeling though the rocking chair wears out before the numbers drop 1000 coins.
If you intend on selling these coins whilst the numbers aren't final, you get what the market bears. The sale you mention comes in at about a 22% profit in OGP after fees.
The USM Office of Public Affairs apparently intends to give reconciled numbers in Mid January 09.
Patience. Patience. We have been dealing with erroneous sales reports on the unc-w issues for 8 or more weeks.
The most notorious being the 1/4 oz unc and 4 coin unc sets, where they EXPLODED in ORDERS the days AFTER they went b/o, and for 8 and 6 weeks respectively, have not been received by collectors who had standing orders in any bountiful quantity.
We have also been told cancellations of orders have not been included in any sales report to date.
IMO, If you believe that all other product offerings (plat proofs, buff golds, AGE golds) were short struck and the unc plats were not, then you best sell the other products fast at these prices.
Think about the whole scenario as it unfolds. IMO, those who dont hold some unc plats will be teary eyed very soon. >>
Good summation, but only time will tell. I still feel that the plat. collector community is to small for this series ever to be a substantial money maker. Yes, profits may be made, but not on the level that a lot of plat enthusiast are anticipating or projecting. >>
The '04 plat proofs at least demonstrate that there are enough plat proof collectors to command very substantial premiums over melt for the plat proof key. I think that this bodes very well for the 08 plat proofs long term.
7over8 presents a compelling argument in favor of the UNCS. Sounds like we'll know in a few weeks. The fact that I sold 3 four coin plat unc sets, four 1/4s and one 1/2 already for a very modest profit also bodes very well for 7over8's position!
Starting next week we should all contact our congressional offices and ask for their help in getting the final AUDITED mintage numbers for Platinum and Gold eagles and Gold Buffalo coins.
I did this in 2006 and was able to get the correct 2005 mintage numbers 6 months before they were posted.
Remember the congressional staffers know nothing about coins so...............
Describe coins exactly as the mint describes them. Cut and paste from the mint web page if possible and definately give the mint product code!!
Such as............
2008 American Eagle One Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8A)
2008 American Eagle One-Half Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8B)
2008 American Eagle One-Quarter Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8C)
2008 American Eagle One-Tenth Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8D)
2008 American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Four-Coin Set (T8E)
You will find the staffers generally very helpful.
Please bring info back to the hive for us to turn into honey!!!!!!!!!
There is increasing concern that the federal reserve is starting to print money and risks a devaluation of the currency.
Rather than raising tarriffs as they did in the 1930s there seems to be an increasing amount of talk by various countries about keeping their currency exchange rates low to stimulate production and exports.
All of this is favorable for hard assets.............things that hurt if you drop them on your foot. Add in a little mideast trouble and well PMs are up significantly this evening. (Gold +20...Plat +40)
I've said before if gold crosses $900 I'd expect a quick sell out of remaining gold eagles and special sets.
Rediculous again. Man you cant get more rediculous than this. Reaching for straws are you?
So, lets see. Let's pretend you are sitting in a marketing/sales meeting at the USM in early 2008 trying to determine potential sales levels of plats and gold coins. What do you use as a basis? Last years numbers? NAAH.
Let's go with HalfStrikes method and mint whatever we feel like. Just make sure they correlate to each other (unc to proof). It doesnt matter that we'll mint waaay to many or too little based on the sales trend from previous years......dont worry about it.
Fast way to get Fired.
Gold Buffs and Plats? Trying to correlate those two? And you totally dismiss historical correlations between plat proof and plat uncs from year to year.
Actually, some of us do care....I, for one, appreciate the different theroys and insights....it is plain to see that the mint screwed up the reporting of sales early on and then fixed the process, but has not yet reported the fixed numbers. The first three items to sell out (1/10 plat uncs, 1/4 plat uncs, and 4 coin set uncs) do not in any way confirm to the ratios and stastitical deviations of EVERYTHING else since then.
From my point of view, it's easy to see that the mint left the "order switch" open on the 1/10 and 1/4 plat uncs way to long. IMO, that much is a given. It is also obvious that this problem had been corrected by the time the 1/2 plat uncs went dark. That only leaves the 4 coin set as a variable. At some point during the sellout and oversell of the 4 coin set, the mint realized the problem and corrected the issue. It could have been done at 1257 sets, or it could have been done at 2000+ sets....but it is very easy to see what happened here:
1/10 plats uncs and 1/4 plat uncs are definately over-reported. The 4 coin set is, at this point, anyone's guess...1250-2250.
Personally, I agree with 7over8 that the Plat Unc numbers are seriously skewed upward (in error), with significant downward revisions likely.
However, bigger picture, I see these having BIG future potential thanks to the small mintages. There are quite a few collectors who strive to own at least one of each U.S. coin minted...many more than the total mintage of any of the 2008 plat issues. Therefore, it may take some time, but I think these coins will gain upward traction even if the numbers don't go down (which IMHO is unlikely).
In the entire universe of U.S. coinage, I imagine these coins as being quite similar to the freaky octogonal Pan Pacific coins minted 100 years ago...not very popular initially...but you can't touch them now. Bottom line is this...we may still make a killing...but your children and grandchildren should definitely be VERY happy!
I also find it interesting that as gold is rising back towards $900/ounce, it seems to be "dragging" platinum along with it...at a slight premium.
<< <i> Let's go with HalfStrikes method and mint whatever we feel like. Just make sure they correlate to each other (unc to proof). It doesnt matter that we'll mint waaay to many or too little based on the sales trend from previous years......dont worry about it.
Fast way to get Fired.
>>
The mint ran out of blanks so they probably couldn't mint as many coins as they wanted. They had to allocate the blanks to the remaining demand and make that decision on the best available data IMO. So I doubt anyone would be fired under these circumstances.
So let's say the mint ran out of 1/2 ounce platinum blanks first, but had 1/4 and 1/10 ounce blanks remaining. They would mint more 1/4 and 1/10 than they normally would according to "ratios and statistical deviations of EVERYTHING else since then." While to some it now seems they have bad "sales records" it is possible they ran out of blanks for the 1/2 size early.
Again this was not a normal situation from what we have been told.
This would account for why some think the numbers are bad but it could simply be a case of no more blanks in proper proportions. Anyway let's see what they say by the end of January, I don't see why it would take that long to figure out things but they have to have final numbers soon enough.
IMO, no platinum coins were struck after the initial allotments or beyond the July sales.
Period.
All those who believe this extra stock was available and after miserable sales and high percentages of returns in August the the USM would start to mint the uncs again in October has got a screw loose.
A loosing proposition. You dont mint a coin where 1/2 the value is lost with every coin produced.
They were done in July.
Now - for the proofs, they did have some time in June and July to produce more. What did they do with proofs?
Again, if you believe the proofs were tremendously short struck, so where the uncs. No other option. Anything else is a kid's dream.....seems like Half has alot of "zzzz's" by his name so maybe he's been posting his dreams.......
Presumably, the coins were only struck in the beginning of 2008. It is unlikely any platinum uncirculated w coins were struck after July, when sales were suspended. Sales reopened in late-mid October, repriced for the fall of platinum bullion (effectively 50% off), and what was left was sold out in a month.
Comparing 2008 numbers to 2007, if the 2008 numbers are right, it would mean that the Mint did a full run in the beginning of the year (the numbers are for the most part pretty close to 2007 numbers). There are good arguments for and against it. I don't think anyone here knows how the Mint operates when it comes to striking decisions. All these coins are minted at the West Point facility. There aren't a LOT of these coins -- doing a "full run" of platinum uncirculateds at mintages of 5,000 or less certainly wouldn't strain the facility's resources. Even at current sales numbers, we're talking a total of just over 16,000 coins. It might make more sense to strike them in one shot, get it over with, and move on to something else. It might be a bad business decision--certainly easy to see that it was now that we know platinum dropped a lot over the summer. But at the time these coins were struck, I don't know that anyone foresaw that platinum would collapse from 2300 to 700 in a matter of months. And we all know that the Mint's practices aren't always good business decisions (for instance, the 30 day return policy or requiring customers to return and replace rather than credit customers the difference after that quick repricing in November).
So, did the Mint effectively make a "full run" in the beginning of the year, make a quantity of 2008s comparable to the number sold during the 2007 year? Maybe.
When sales reopened in October, there was a lot of pent up demand. Sales numbers at the time were crazy low because of the forced hiatus.
$100--599 $50---579 $25---651 $10---1165
Everyone was aware of this, and if those numbers didn't change, these would have been our PanPacific Golds. (I'm kind of sad that didn't happen). But it didn't, sales were reopened, and some opportunists, myself included, backed up the truck and bought what they could. I've looked at the sales pattern, and don't see any reason to find the sales figures highly suspect. There might be some revision down from here, but I don't see anything to support the belief that any revision will be as significant as 7over8 insists it must be.
This chart displays sales of 2008 w uncirculated platinums from October 20 to December 16
The starting point (August) are reported sales up until that time. Set sales are kept separate from individual coins, since sets sell differently.
When sales reopened, $10 sales jumped. This made a lot of sense-- normally, the smaller less expensive coins are easiest to resell; it's easier to get a 100% return on a $125 coin than on a $2000 set. Those coins quickly sold out.
Focus then turned to the next most affordable coin, the $25. Sales reportedly jumped 1500, to 2115 from 615. However, those numbers have since dropped by 337, settling to a total of 1778. Assuming those 337 reflected overreported sales Oct. 26, the actual sales that week were a more reasonable 1,163. (at the $320 price, that would be about $372,000).
Interestingly, the $50 coins and the sets also had pretty significant increases with the October 26 numbers. The $50 coins increase 477 (over $272,000), the sets by 385 ($2220 at the time, or $855,000).
After the $25s sold out, attention shifted to the sets; sensible, in my opinion, as it was the only way to get the $10 and $25, and pick up the larger coins at the same time. Also, the sets were repriced down to $2090, making the whole thing slightly more affordable. Sets popped an incredible 900 in November 16 ($1.8M). The $50s followed suit and then the $100s.
Our comparator years are imperfect. 2006 was not a normal sales year. 2007 was fairly uneventful, 2008 was a very strange year, with suspended sales and several repricings, including one signficantly up and one very significantly down. Other than the "surprise" that the $25s were 500 over the $50s, instead of 55 to 100 (as in 2006/2007, our imperfect comparator years) I don't see much in these sales figures to suggest a huge downward revision is coming; the drop from 2115 to 1778-- a decrease of 16% -- might reflect the biggest adjustment has already taken place.
I'm not going to pretend to know exactly what the finalized numbers will be, or insist that my expectations must be met. I could be wrong, numbers could drop significantly from here. I just don't see much reason to expect it.
It seems very unlikely that sets were done at 1250. Set sales reportedly broke the 1250 barrier with Nov. 9 sales. If sets were done at 1250, the repricing wouldn't make any sense. I understand that some of the set sales in the week after November 9 could have reflected people who returned sets and replaced them at the repriced amount, but the repricing was from $2220 to $2090. I'm sure some did the return/replace, but I'd be surprised if it was a significant number.
How many coins came off the $50 2007"w" gold from the time sales closed at 24,000 coins on the sales report(really order report) to the time final finals for 2007w came out?
After the inventory is sold a coin goes back order. Orders placed after that are in the weekly sales report and when the mint kills the order it shows up on the e-mail we get at the top "shipped" but at the bottom the same form tell you you are not getting the coins. The mints system counts this as a shipment and it stays on the weekly sales report. Coins we ship back near the end of the 30 days return option come off the sales report and go back out to people with back order status. Sales on the report drop because the older order has been removed and the order now filled with the same coins was already counted.
The weekly sales report is useful up to the time the coins go back order only! I think these Unc"w" plats are going to see 3,000 coins or less on some of the denominations. Just how far it is going to drop I do not know but they are almost certain to fall more.
It would be best for the collectors if the flippers would sell out the unc"w" plats now at issue price and let the coins begin the dispersal process. :-) After all the weekly sales report says there are 4,000 coins and we dont want to hold such common issues because we cant flip them for 100% in 3 weeks before our return option is up. :-)
Take the time to look through A Guide to US Type Coins. It lists what the Red Book Guys think the surviving populations are for US type coins from 1792 to present surviving in Mint State grades. Then go look what rank that puts mint state single year issue type coins since 1792 with 2,000-4,000 populations. Also note that almost every really rare design and denomination based type coin was issued for only one year or very few years. You guys need perspective. The reason most guys on this board are so worked up over the weekly sales report for the 2008"w" is it messes up the opportunity to flip right out of the gate............... ARE YOU BUFFET OR A DAY TRADER?
Ericj96
PS: The answer to the first question is 6,000 coins! YES 6,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! COINS! If the report was off 6,000 coins on the gold "w" last year please explain your faith in the "w" plats report this year!
nycounsel, your analysis is very reasonable, and IMO very likely.
While many of us like to think that we can 'predict' what the US Mint is doing, based on some limited previous experiences, we must remember that it is the US Mint we are dealing with, and be prepared to be taken unawares. Expect to be surprised and or disappointed.
I have to wonder if the US Mint might have adjusted their record keeping somewhat. Perhaps they took some criticism the last several years because of their method of keeping track of 'sales' or whatever they call the numbers.... where they had to make late adjustments. And..... just perhaps...... they changed the system to more accurately reflect what is shipped. Yes, I know some have called the Mint and were told certain things.... but we also know that those are not necessarily accurate and up to date. Spokespersons frequently do not have complete understanding of all that the US Mint is doing.
In another month, perhaps 7/8 may turn out to be right. Or.... I'm sure he will be hearing about it for some time, given the intensity with which he is sticking to his convictions. It looks to me like the odds are not in favor of a large adjustment, and I am not willing to place a large bet on that possibility.
Didn't someone mention that they had contacted a congressman.... to contact the Mint to get the revised numbers last year or so?
If that indeed did happen.... this would have been a huge embarassment to any organization. That very well may have pushed the US Mint to change the way they keep track of the numbers.
Starting next week we should all contact our congressional offices and ask for their help in getting the final AUDITED mintage numbers for Platinum and Gold eagles and Gold Buffalo coins.
I did this in 2006 and was able to get the correct 2005 mintage numbers 6 months before they were posted.
Remember the congressional staffers know nothing about coins so...............
Describe coins exactly as the mint describes them. Cut and paste from the mint web page if possible and definately give the mint product code!!
Such as............
2008 American Eagle One Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8A)
2008 American Eagle One-Half Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8B)
2008 American Eagle One-Quarter Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8C)
2008 American Eagle One-Tenth Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8D)
2008 American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Four-Coin Set (T8E)
You will find the staffers generally very helpful.
Please bring info back to the hive for us to turn into honey!!!!!!!!!
How many coins came off the $50 2007"w" gold from the time sales closed at 24,000 coins on the sales report(really order report) to the time final finals for 2007w came out? ***
The weekly sales report is useful up to the time the coins go back order only! I think these Unc"w" plats are going to see 3,000 coins or less on some of the denominations. Just how far it is going to drop I do not know but they are almost certain to fall more.
It would be best for the collectors if the flippers would sell out the unc"w" plats now at issue price and let the coins begin the dispersal process. :-) After all the weekly sales report says there are 4,000 coins and we dont want to hold such common issues because we cant flip them for 100% in 3 weeks before our return option is up. :-)
*** You guys need perspective. The reason most guys on this board are so worked up over the weekly sales report for the 2008"w" is it messes up the opportunity to flip right out of the gate............... ARE YOU BUFFET OR A DAY TRADER?
PS: The answer to the first question is 6,000 coins! YES 6,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! COINS! If the report was off 6,000 coins on the gold "w" last year please explain your faith in the "w" plats report this year!
Eric,
I agree with you that the panic response to the 4,000 sales numbers is ridiculous. I've said before and continue to believe that even if sales numbers don't drop a bit, these are good coins at very low mintages; selling as if these were a disaster is short-sighted. I don't recall the adjustment down on 2007 w golds, didn't follow them much at the time. An adjustment of 6,000 off 24,000 is indeed dramatic, and would support that a similar significant adjustment for the 2008 w uncirculateds is possible. However, possible is not the same as probable, and probable is not the same as a certainty.
To the extent 7over8 and I bump heads on things, it's over those distinctions; I don't think we need to speak of what is possible as if it's a certainty, nor is it necessary when what we know isn't so bad. The numbers as they stand are good enough to make these coins winners; we don't need to act as if they aren't. If the numbers are revised down, as they may be, even better. There's just no need, in my opinion, to act as if a huge adjustment is needed to make these coins winners. It isn't. 2008s don't need to beat 2006 to be winners. They already have low numbers. Instead of arguing about what final numbers will be -- and they will be know eventually -- we should work on building the collector base.
The U.S. Mint has already created the sales pitch for these coins:
In 2006, the United States Mint embarked on a new, three-year series titled The Foundations of American Democracy. Each year, beginning in 2006, the reverse design has featured an image emblematic of one of the three institutional foundations of our American democracy – the Legislative, the Executive and the Judicial branches. This new series of designs was introduced in the order the branches of government appear in the U.S. Constitution.
The Mint defines these as a 3 coin set, and places the significance of the designs in historical perspective. We have across the board low mintages. The largest number for any of the coins is 5,556 for the 2007-w $10 coin. That "big" number is not much more than what we used to think as a really SMALL number-- the 5,172 Jackie Robinson $5 unc gold. This 3 coin series is really incredible, and as collectors start to take note, as I believe they will -- especially now that platinum is not any more expensive than gold -- I don't see how things don't continue to get better from here.
<< <i> If the report was off 6,000 coins on the gold "w" last year please explain your faith in the "w" plats report this year! >>
I think it is not an issue of faith as much as what are the odds of accuracy. It is also possible to point out that the one ounce 2006 w unc went up 568 coins so the numbers from the mint can move in both directions much later.
Also it depends on why the numbers dropped 6000 for the gold w, it may be a case where that was not an issue with backorders at all but was simply added incorrectly to begin with and that was removed later. I don't have the weekly sales data for those coins but I bet it would show a large number of sales early that was incorrectly tabulated compared to what we have alleged here.
PS Overall though I agree and also expect the numbers will drop a small amount eventually for these 2008 w unc, perhaps 200 coins is all per option but not enough to challenge the 2006 w unc kings IMO. It seems the mint made more 2008 w unc than people guessed and that is what happened.
About a year ago now FLBUFFALOHUNTER was hung up on some bad data and fought me on it. The sales report - known cancellations put the 2008w coins into the 2-3 thousand range. When the numbers come in down more than 200 coins each I will not tell you I told you so.
Comments
<< <i>7over8 please explain this one!!
Glad I didn't back up the truck on these Plats....where am I wrong???? >>
sold all of mine, when the selling was good.
Even at $175 the person is making a profit (albeit small) after fees.
The 2008w platinums might not be as hot as other coins right now, but that doesn't make the early enthusiasm wrong.
If you intend on selling these coins whilst the numbers aren't final, you get what the market bears. The sale you mention comes in at about a 22% profit in OGP after fees.
The USM Office of Public Affairs apparently intends to give reconciled numbers in Mid January 09.
Patience. Patience. We have been dealing with erroneous sales reports on the unc-w issues for 8 or more weeks.
The most notorious being the 1/4 oz unc and 4 coin unc sets, where they EXPLODED in ORDERS the days AFTER they went b/o, and for 8 and 6 weeks respectively, have not been received by collectors who had standing orders in any bountiful quantity.
We have also been told cancellations of orders have not been included in any sales report to date.
IMO, If you believe that all other product offerings (plat proofs, buff golds, AGE golds) were short struck and the unc plats were not, then you best sell the other products fast at these prices.
Think about the whole scenario as it unfolds. IMO, those who dont hold some unc plats will be teary eyed very soon.
At the time the focus was on the platinum uncirculateds -- late October/early November -- the Mint had not yet announced it was killing off a number of coins, including the gold Buffalos. So at that time, the analysis was right to focus on the platinum uncirculateds, which even at current numbers are coins with mintages of about 4,000.
When the announcement was made that other series, including Buffalos, were being ended, the focus shifted and rightly so-- gold coins have a larger base, and the Buffalo design has crossover appeal. We've had a number of back up the truck opportunities this year.
I bought a fair quantity of 2008 w plats. I'm not that concerned if numbers stay where they are. I also bought a fair quantity of gold buffalos.
<< <i>Guys -
If you intend on selling these coins whilst the numbers aren't final, you get what the market bears. The sale you mention comes in at about a 22% profit in OGP after fees.
The USM Office of Public Affairs apparently intends to give reconciled numbers in Mid January 09.
Patience. Patience. We have been dealing with erroneous sales reports on the unc-w issues for 8 or more weeks.
The most notorious being the 1/4 oz unc and 4 coin unc sets, where they EXPLODED in ORDERS the days AFTER they went b/o, and for 8 and 6 weeks respectively, have not been received by collectors who had standing orders in any bountiful quantity.
We have also been told cancellations of orders have not been included in any sales report to date.
IMO, If you believe that all other product offerings (plat proofs, buff golds, AGE golds) were short struck and the unc plats were not, then you best sell the other products fast at these prices.
Think about the whole scenario as it unfolds. IMO, those who dont hold some unc plats will be teary eyed very soon. >>
Good summation, but only time will tell. I still feel that the plat. collector community is to small for this series ever to be a substantial money maker. Yes, profits may be made, but not on the level that a lot of plat enthusiast are anticipating or projecting.
a sealed buffalo gold proof 4 coin set?
buffalo unc 4 coin set?
$10 proof/unc buffalo gold?
<< <i>anyone have a feeling for what market price is for:
a sealed buffalo gold proof 4 coin set?
buffalo unc 4 coin set?
$10 proof/unc buffalo gold? >>
eBay completed listings indicate..
proof set (raw) ... $3350 - $3500
unc set (raw) .... $2900 (only one completed sale)
$10 proof (unopend box) $525 - $575
$10 unc...sealed box ...$500 -$530
The trend line is up ...
It may be timing and thin trading, but it could be euphoria that is dissipating.....
EBAY is the last place to indicate weakness.......
NYC - I wasn't completely in your camp with your "economy impact on these issues" but have since somewhat converted.....
My point being even in a bad economy, ordinary people flock to PM's and tangible rarities, but, fom what I have seen thus far - - -
The move from paper to PM's hasnt taken hold with the ordinary Joe, that move would bring much needed activity to PM's and ultimately these rarities.
That is the "Box of Twenty Moderns"
Many dealer friends have noticed customers looking for the rarest of the rare in Moderns to put into their box of 20.
This cuts across all products and metals.
So, to determine that plats will not do as well as golds, because they have a historical smaller collector base.......maybe turned upside down with this trend....
Also I checked back on the 2006 w unc and 2007 w unc and I didn't see any major changes in those numbers once they settled down after sellout. So if the mint drastically changes the 2008 it would be something they haven't done before. Just look up the final sales reports on the 2006 and 2007 and see if they dropped over 1000 coins, it didn't happen.
Nobody here knows what the final backorder number was regardless of what some claim, the best unc w to show what it might be was the 1/2 ounce which went at over 1250. If you notice in the report it shows that coin is NOW AT 1257 so it is close to what the inventory showed. How can it drop hundreds from there?
PS The proof plats sold out all in one day which was W-A-Y-Y-Y faster than the unc coins. So if the numbers were high you would think it would be with those coins, not the unc. Now I happen to think the proof and unc numbers are close but just trying to point out that the unc were not the fastest to be gone! Anyway I am not telling anyone to sell the 2008 plat unc here as I am holding some here but we have to be realistic in what happened.
Also reports are the only bullion coins the mint is doing for the start of the year is the regular bullion one ounce gold eagle and silver eagle besides the special saint coin. All others are suspended to later in the year, and I think that includes the plat proof and bullion plats. So next year could see another low mintage year for coins in continuing series. That was why I liked the plat proof more than the plat unc but it is all water under the bridge now.
Think. Take you head out of the sand and think.
Proof Plats were available sooner than the Unc plats this year and sold in higher quantities without access to return (check the numbers, many proof were bought in May/June, significant downtrend in Platinum Spot occurred in July/August - so most early purchases of Proof plats were retained by buyers....not returned)
With that said, the Plat Uncs come up for sale in July, Sell miserably, Plat Spot is dropping thru the floor, many find there way back as returns in early August (plenty of time to return)
The USM produced some initial quantity based on market trends (sales last year, pricing, etc.) for both proof and unc plats.
Proof plats have a stronger showing (as expected) and time allows for the USM to even run another production run, if necessary for Proofs.
Unc plats sell miserably, large percentages are returned, price of platinum falls through the floor, USM cost of raw material and production is much higher than ANY repriced coin.....
what happens next?
IMO, no more production of plat unc coins. Plat proofs, not so sure. Maybe more produced in June, maybe not.
Fast forward. October.
USM says we will sell "remaining inventory" of Platinum Unc and Proof coins at lower prices.
Plat proof show much lower numbers than expected, in fact plat proof numbers on some issues are lower than plat uncs for the same denomination.
The numbers dont make sense. It just doesnt happen. The numbers as reported on the sales report are skewed.
IMO, look for a significant restatement of numbers in mid January.
The 1/10 ounce burnished unc. platinum, available for around $180, appears to have a *worst case* mintage of ~4600, which is 10% less than the 1997 unc. Jackie Robinson gold $5. Bullion 1/10 oz. plats are going for $125 to $150, so a few dollars more will get you a much scarcer coin which is also a one-year type with a distinctive reverse.
Even if the hard-core plat collector base is low, I imagine that many collectors may want to pick up a couple of 2006-2008-W burnished uncs., at least while prices are reasonable, simply because of the low mintage and attractive designs.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Thanks for your passion and contributions to this thread.
<< <i>anyone have a feeling for what market price is for:
a sealed buffalo gold proof 4 coin set?
buffalo unc 4 coin set?
$10 proof/unc buffalo gold? >>
Here is a link to a site that gives a lot of information concerning gold coins. I just found it recently so I have not yet explored it enough to digest/understand the data. It appears to say the largest spread over spot has been for the $5 buffalo at 339%, the spread for $10 is at 25%. It does not appear to differentiate between, proof, unc, graded or non graded.
link
<< <i>
<< <i>nothing in over 24 hours on my favorite thread?? >>
Here you go Raufus.....if this was a 1/2oz Buff, it would have sold for over $1000!!!
This 'un right cheer!!
When will the Plats catch on??? Where's 7over8 to chime in??
I think the Buffs are far more interesting to the collector base for now!!!!
Wow, I sold a raw one a few days ago for just under that. In fact, it was the last of my plat uncs. Sure wish I had bought 4 coin buff sets instead of the plat uncs. At least I still made a few hundred on each plat unc set after all the fees (ebay seller fees for non power-sellers are a killer).
interesting site; limited usefulness without reference to grade or finish. data seems suspect--- it gives average price for the $10 buffalo at $272 and average price for the $5 buffalo at $381... I have a hard time believing that's correct
Also they made as many unc buffalo 1/10 as proof buffalo 1/10 and I am not hearing anyone complain or calling the mint on that, it is just what happened. So if it happened with the buffalo it may have happened with the unc plats, they did what they did.
PS I hope you got a rocking chair for Xmas for your wait on these coin numbers, I have a feeling though the rocking chair wears out before the numbers drop 1000 coins.
<< <i>
<< <i>Guys -
If you intend on selling these coins whilst the numbers aren't final, you get what the market bears. The sale you mention comes in at about a 22% profit in OGP after fees.
The USM Office of Public Affairs apparently intends to give reconciled numbers in Mid January 09.
Patience. Patience. We have been dealing with erroneous sales reports on the unc-w issues for 8 or more weeks.
The most notorious being the 1/4 oz unc and 4 coin unc sets, where they EXPLODED in ORDERS the days AFTER they went b/o, and for 8 and 6 weeks respectively, have not been received by collectors who had standing orders in any bountiful quantity.
We have also been told cancellations of orders have not been included in any sales report to date.
IMO, If you believe that all other product offerings (plat proofs, buff golds, AGE golds) were short struck and the unc plats were not, then you best sell the other products fast at these prices.
Think about the whole scenario as it unfolds. IMO, those who dont hold some unc plats will be teary eyed very soon. >>
Good summation, but only time will tell. I still feel that the plat. collector community is to small for this series ever to be a substantial money maker. Yes, profits may be made, but not on the level that a lot of plat enthusiast are anticipating or projecting. >>
The '04 plat proofs at least demonstrate that there are enough plat proof collectors to command very substantial premiums over melt for the plat proof key. I think that this bodes very well for the 08 plat proofs long term.
7over8 presents a compelling argument in favor of the UNCS. Sounds like we'll know in a few weeks. The fact that I sold 3 four coin plat unc sets, four 1/4s and one 1/2 already for a very modest profit also bodes very well for 7over8's position!
Starting next week we should all contact our congressional offices and ask for their help in getting the final AUDITED mintage numbers for Platinum and Gold eagles and Gold Buffalo coins.
I did this in 2006 and was able to get the correct 2005 mintage numbers 6 months before they were posted.
Remember the congressional staffers know nothing about coins so...............
Describe coins exactly as the mint describes them.
Cut and paste from the mint web page if possible and definately give the mint product code!!
Such as............
2008 American Eagle One Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8A)
2008 American Eagle One-Half Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8B)
2008 American Eagle One-Quarter Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8C)
2008 American Eagle One-Tenth Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8D)
2008 American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Four-Coin Set (T8E)
You will find the staffers generally very helpful.
Please bring info back to the hive for us to turn into honey!!!!!!!!!
There is increasing concern that the federal reserve is starting to print money and risks a devaluation of the currency.
Rather than raising tarriffs as they did in the 1930s there seems to be an increasing amount of talk by various countries about keeping their currency exchange rates low to stimulate production and exports.
All of this is favorable for hard assets.............things that hurt if you drop them on your foot.
Add in a little mideast trouble and well PMs are up significantly this evening. (Gold +20...Plat +40)
I've said before if gold crosses $900 I'd expect a quick sell out of remaining gold eagles and special sets.
get prepared to be shocked by the unc-w numbers drop.......when we get the reconciliation in mid-Jan.
20 more days is not long enough to even put my feet up....
be prepared to be shocked on how rare the unc-w plats are......
talk of devaluation of our currency is the way out of this mess.
this bodes very well for PM's. unfortunately not for dollar denominated assets. great for dollar denominated liabilities.
now they just have to come up with a better word than "devaluation", it's too scary. sort of like when we started calling used cars "pre-owned"
Plat 4 coins sets unc 2158 proof 2607 or 21% more proof.
An even match.
Rediculous again. Man you cant get more rediculous than this. Reaching for straws are you?
So, lets see. Let's pretend you are sitting in a marketing/sales meeting at the USM in early 2008 trying to determine potential sales levels of plats and gold coins. What do you use as a basis? Last years numbers? NAAH.
Let's go with HalfStrikes method and mint whatever we feel like. Just make sure they correlate to each other (unc to proof). It doesnt matter that we'll mint waaay to many or too little based on the sales trend from previous years......dont worry about it.
Fast way to get Fired.
Gold Buffs and Plats? Trying to correlate those two? And you totally dismiss historical correlations between plat proof and plat uncs from year to year.
What a joke. Go back to sleep.
WHO GIVES A CRAP?
If you dont, you dont have to read or post.
Easy enough.
<< <i>We do.
If you dont, you dont have to read or post.
Easy enough. >>
I come to this thread to gain insight... unfortunately it has been taken over of late by your obvious mental illness. Get some help!
<< <i>WHO GIVES A CRAP? >>
Actually, some of us do care....I, for one, appreciate the different theroys and insights....it is plain to see that the mint screwed up the reporting of sales early on and then fixed the process, but has not yet reported the fixed numbers. The first three items to sell out (1/10 plat uncs, 1/4 plat uncs, and 4 coin set uncs) do not in any way confirm to the ratios and stastitical deviations of EVERYTHING else since then.
From my point of view, it's easy to see that the mint left the "order switch" open on the 1/10 and 1/4 plat uncs way to long. IMO, that much is a given. It is also obvious that this problem had been corrected by the time the 1/2 plat uncs went dark. That only leaves the 4 coin set as a variable. At some point during the sellout and oversell of the 4 coin set, the mint realized the problem and corrected the issue. It could have been done at 1257 sets, or it could have been done at 2000+ sets....but it is very easy to see what happened here:
1/10 plats uncs and 1/4 plat uncs are definately over-reported. The 4 coin set is, at this point, anyone's guess...1250-2250.
FloridaBill
However, bigger picture, I see these having BIG future potential thanks to the small mintages. There are quite a few collectors who strive to own at least one of each U.S. coin minted...many more than the total mintage of any of the 2008 plat issues. Therefore, it may take some time, but I think these coins will gain upward traction even if the numbers don't go down (which IMHO is unlikely).
In the entire universe of U.S. coinage, I imagine these coins as being quite similar to the freaky octogonal Pan Pacific coins minted 100 years ago...not very popular initially...but you can't touch them now. Bottom line is this...we may still make a killing...but your children and grandchildren should definitely be VERY happy!
I also find it interesting that as gold is rising back towards $900/ounce, it seems to be "dragging" platinum along with it...at a slight premium.
<< <i>You know. all of this bickering is getting very tiresome.
<< <i>
I AGREE, appreciate your differences, however, the personal attacks are not merited nor appreciated.
<< <i>
Let's go with HalfStrikes method and mint whatever we feel like. Just make sure they correlate to each other (unc to proof). It doesnt matter that we'll mint waaay to many or too little based on the sales trend from previous years......dont worry about it.
Fast way to get Fired.
>>
The mint ran out of blanks so they probably couldn't mint as many coins as they wanted. They had to allocate the blanks to the remaining demand and make that decision on the best available data IMO. So I doubt anyone would be fired under these circumstances.
So let's say the mint ran out of 1/2 ounce platinum blanks first, but had 1/4 and 1/10 ounce blanks remaining. They would mint more 1/4 and 1/10 than they normally would according to "ratios and statistical deviations of EVERYTHING else since then." While to some it now seems they have bad "sales records" it is possible they ran out of blanks for the 1/2 size early.
Again this was not a normal situation from what we have been told.
This would account for why some think the numbers are bad but it could simply be a case of no more blanks in proper proportions. Anyway let's see what they say by the end of January, I don't see why it would take that long to figure out things but they have to have final numbers soon enough.
Period.
All those who believe this extra stock was available and after miserable sales and high percentages of returns in August the the USM would start to mint the uncs again in October has got a screw loose.
A loosing proposition. You dont mint a coin where 1/2 the value is lost with every coin produced.
They were done in July.
Now - for the proofs, they did have some time in June and July to produce more. What did they do with proofs?
Again, if you believe the proofs were tremendously short struck, so where the uncs. No other option. Anything else is a kid's dream.....seems like Half has alot of "zzzz's" by his name so maybe he's been posting his dreams.......
Still my opinion the sets were done at 1250.
7/8
Platinum Unc W coins
numbers right now:
2008w
$100--4084
$50----3415
$25----3936
$10----4643
2007w2007w
$100--4177
$50----3635
$25----3690
$10----5556
2006w
$100--3068
$50----2577
$25----2676
$10----3544
Presumably, the coins were only struck in the beginning of 2008. It is unlikely any platinum uncirculated w coins were struck after July, when sales were suspended. Sales reopened in late-mid October, repriced for the fall of platinum bullion (effectively 50% off), and what was left was sold out in a month.
Comparing 2008 numbers to 2007, if the 2008 numbers are right, it would mean that the Mint did a full run in the beginning of the year (the numbers are for the most part pretty close to 2007 numbers). There are good arguments for and against it. I don't think anyone here knows how the Mint operates when it comes to striking decisions. All these coins are minted at the West Point facility. There aren't a LOT of these coins -- doing a "full run" of platinum uncirculateds at mintages of 5,000 or less certainly wouldn't strain the facility's resources. Even at current sales numbers, we're talking a total of just over 16,000 coins. It might make more sense to strike them in one shot, get it over with, and move on to something else. It might be a bad business decision--certainly easy to see that it was now that we know platinum dropped a lot over the summer. But at the time these coins were struck, I don't know that anyone foresaw that platinum would collapse from 2300 to 700 in a matter of months. And we all know that the Mint's practices aren't always good business decisions (for instance, the 30 day return policy or requiring customers to return and replace rather than credit customers the difference after that quick repricing in November).
So, did the Mint effectively make a "full run" in the beginning of the year, make a quantity of 2008s comparable to the number sold during the 2007 year? Maybe.
When sales reopened in October, there was a lot of pent up demand. Sales numbers at the time were crazy low because of the forced hiatus.
$100--599
$50---579
$25---651
$10---1165
Everyone was aware of this, and if those numbers didn't change, these would have been our PanPacific Golds. (I'm kind of sad that didn't happen). But it didn't, sales were reopened, and some opportunists, myself included, backed up the truck and bought what they could. I've looked at the sales pattern, and don't see any reason to find the sales figures highly suspect. There might be some revision down from here, but I don't see anything to support the belief that any revision will be as significant as 7over8 insists it must be.
The starting point (August) are reported sales up until that time. Set sales are kept separate from individual coins, since sets sell differently.
When sales reopened, $10 sales jumped. This made a lot of sense-- normally, the smaller less expensive coins are easiest to resell; it's easier to get a 100% return on a $125 coin than on a $2000 set. Those coins quickly sold out.
Focus then turned to the next most affordable coin, the $25. Sales reportedly jumped 1500, to 2115 from 615. However, those numbers have since dropped by 337, settling to a total of 1778. Assuming those 337 reflected overreported sales Oct. 26, the actual sales that week were a more reasonable 1,163. (at the $320 price, that would be about $372,000).
Interestingly, the $50 coins and the sets also had pretty significant increases with the October 26 numbers. The $50 coins increase 477 (over $272,000), the sets by 385 ($2220 at the time, or $855,000).
After the $25s sold out, attention shifted to the sets; sensible, in my opinion, as it was the only way to get the $10 and $25, and pick up the larger coins at the same time. Also, the sets were repriced down to $2090, making the whole thing slightly more affordable. Sets popped an incredible 900 in November 16 ($1.8M). The $50s followed suit and then the $100s.
Our comparator years are imperfect. 2006 was not a normal sales year. 2007 was fairly uneventful, 2008 was a very strange year, with suspended sales and several repricings, including one signficantly up and one very significantly down. Other than the "surprise" that the $25s were 500 over the $50s, instead of 55 to 100 (as in 2006/2007, our imperfect comparator years) I don't see much in these sales figures to suggest a huge downward revision is coming; the drop from 2115 to 1778-- a decrease of 16% -- might reflect the biggest adjustment has already taken place.
I'm not going to pretend to know exactly what the finalized numbers will be, or insist that my expectations must be met. I could be wrong, numbers could drop significantly from here. I just don't see much reason to expect it.
Still my opinion the sets were done at 1250.
7/8
It seems very unlikely that sets were done at 1250. Set sales reportedly broke the 1250 barrier with Nov. 9 sales. If sets were done at 1250, the repricing wouldn't make any sense. I understand that some of the set sales in the week after November 9 could have reflected people who returned sets and replaced them at the repriced amount, but the repricing was from $2220 to $2090. I'm sure some did the return/replace, but I'd be surprised if it was a significant number.
How many coins came off the $50 2007"w" gold from the time sales closed at 24,000 coins on the sales report(really order report) to the time final finals for 2007w came out?
After the inventory is sold a coin goes back order. Orders placed after that are in the weekly sales report and when the mint kills the order it shows up on the e-mail we get at the top "shipped" but at the bottom the same form tell you you are not getting the coins. The mints system counts this as a shipment and it stays on the weekly sales report. Coins we ship back near the end of the 30 days return option come off the sales report and go back out to people with back order status. Sales on the report drop because the older order has been removed and the order now filled with the same coins was already counted.
The weekly sales report is useful up to the time the coins go back order only! I think these Unc"w" plats are going to see 3,000 coins or less on some of the denominations. Just how far it is going to drop I do not know but they are almost certain to fall more.
It would be best for the collectors if the flippers would sell out the unc"w" plats now at issue price and let the coins begin the dispersal process. :-) After all the weekly sales report says there are 4,000 coins and we dont want to hold such common issues because we cant flip them for 100% in 3 weeks before our return option is up. :-)
Take the time to look through A Guide to US Type Coins. It lists what the Red Book Guys think the surviving populations are for US type coins from 1792 to present surviving in Mint State grades. Then go look what rank that puts mint state single year issue type coins since 1792 with 2,000-4,000 populations. Also note that almost every really rare design and denomination based type coin was issued for only one year or very few years. You guys need perspective. The reason most guys on this board are so worked up over the weekly sales report for the 2008"w" is it messes up the opportunity to flip right out of the gate............... ARE YOU BUFFET OR A DAY TRADER?
Ericj96
PS: The answer to the first question is 6,000 coins! YES 6,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! COINS! If the report was off 6,000 coins on the gold "w" last year please explain your faith in the "w" plats report this year!
While many of us like to think that we can 'predict' what the US Mint is doing, based on some limited previous experiences, we must remember that it is the US Mint we are dealing with, and be prepared to be taken unawares. Expect to be surprised and or disappointed.
I have to wonder if the US Mint might have adjusted their record keeping somewhat. Perhaps they took some criticism the last several years because of their method of keeping track of 'sales' or whatever they call the numbers.... where they had to make late adjustments. And..... just perhaps...... they changed the system to more accurately reflect what is shipped. Yes, I know some have called the Mint and were told certain things.... but we also know that those are not necessarily accurate and up to date. Spokespersons frequently do not have complete understanding of all that the US Mint is doing.
In another month, perhaps 7/8 may turn out to be right. Or.... I'm sure he will be hearing about it for some time, given the intensity with which he is sticking to his convictions. It looks to me like the odds are not in favor of a large adjustment, and I am not willing to place a large bet on that possibility.
Step right up and place your bets........
If that indeed did happen.... this would have been a huge embarassment to any organization. That very well may have pushed the US Mint to change the way they keep track of the numbers.
REMINDER.............
Starting next week we should all contact our congressional offices and ask for their help in getting the final AUDITED mintage numbers for Platinum and Gold eagles and Gold Buffalo coins.
I did this in 2006 and was able to get the correct 2005 mintage numbers 6 months before they were posted.
Remember the congressional staffers know nothing about coins so...............
Describe coins exactly as the mint describes them.
Cut and paste from the mint web page if possible and definately give the mint product code!!
Such as............
2008 American Eagle One Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8A)
2008 American Eagle One-Half Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8B)
2008 American Eagle One-Quarter Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8C)
2008 American Eagle One-Tenth Ounce Platinum Uncirculated Coin (T8D)
2008 American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Four-Coin Set (T8E)
You will find the staffers generally very helpful.
Please bring info back to the hive for us to turn into honey!!!!!!!!!
The weekly sales report is useful up to the time the coins go back order only! I think these Unc"w" plats are going to see 3,000 coins or less on some of the denominations. Just how far it is going to drop I do not know but they are almost certain to fall more.
It would be best for the collectors if the flippers would sell out the unc"w" plats now at issue price and let the coins begin the dispersal process. :-) After all the weekly sales report says there are 4,000 coins and we dont want to hold such common issues because we cant flip them for 100% in 3 weeks before our return option is up. :-)
***
You guys need perspective. The reason most guys on this board are so worked up over the weekly sales report for the 2008"w" is it messes up the opportunity to flip right out of the gate............... ARE YOU BUFFET OR A DAY TRADER?
PS: The answer to the first question is 6,000 coins! YES 6,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! COINS! If the report was off 6,000 coins on the gold "w" last year please explain your faith in the "w" plats report this year!
Eric,
I agree with you that the panic response to the 4,000 sales numbers is ridiculous. I've said before and continue to believe that even if sales numbers don't drop a bit, these are good coins at very low mintages; selling as if these were a disaster is short-sighted. I don't recall the adjustment down on 2007 w golds, didn't follow them much at the time. An adjustment of 6,000 off 24,000 is indeed dramatic, and would support that a similar significant adjustment for the 2008 w uncirculateds is possible. However, possible is not the same as probable, and probable is not the same as a certainty.
To the extent 7over8 and I bump heads on things, it's over those distinctions; I don't think we need to speak of what is possible as if it's a certainty, nor is it necessary when what we know isn't so bad. The numbers as they stand are good enough to make these coins winners; we don't need to act as if they aren't. If the numbers are revised down, as they may be, even better. There's just no need, in my opinion, to act as if a huge adjustment is needed to make these coins winners. It isn't. 2008s don't need to beat 2006 to be winners. They already have low numbers. Instead of arguing about what final numbers will be -- and they will be know eventually -- we should work on building the collector base.
In 2006, the United States Mint embarked on a new, three-year series titled The Foundations of American Democracy. Each year, beginning in 2006, the reverse design has featured an image emblematic of one of the three institutional foundations of our American democracy – the Legislative, the Executive and the Judicial branches. This new series of designs was introduced in the order the branches of government appear in the U.S. Constitution.
The Mint defines these as a 3 coin set, and places the significance of the designs in historical perspective. We have across the board low mintages. The largest number for any of the coins is 5,556 for the 2007-w $10 coin. That "big" number is not much more than what we used to think as a really SMALL number-- the 5,172 Jackie Robinson $5 unc gold. This 3 coin series is really incredible, and as collectors start to take note, as I believe they will -- especially now that platinum is not any more expensive than gold -- I don't see how things don't continue to get better from here.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
No significance. There are fewer than 10 2008-w 1/10 oz plats on ebay right now.
<< <i> If the report was off 6,000 coins on the gold "w" last year please explain your faith in the "w" plats report this year! >>
I think it is not an issue of faith as much as what are the odds of accuracy. It is also possible to point out that the one ounce 2006 w unc went up 568 coins so the numbers from the mint can move in both directions much later.
Also it depends on why the numbers dropped 6000 for the gold w, it may be a case where that was not an issue with backorders at all but was simply added incorrectly to begin with and that was removed later. I don't have the weekly sales data for those coins but I bet it would show a large number of sales early that was incorrectly tabulated compared to what we have alleged here.
PS Overall though I agree and also expect the numbers will drop a small amount eventually for these 2008 w unc, perhaps 200 coins is all per option but not enough to challenge the 2006 w unc kings IMO. It seems the mint made more 2008 w unc than people guessed and that is what happened.
Ericj96