I think everything that has sold out will be delivered by tomorrow depending on the weather. The mint website order page is delayed by one day on when things ship it seems, but check tomorrow and it should say shipped.
Added, Yes I have had orders with different products and they shipped last. If the order shows in stock and cancel box gone then I bet it shipped today and shows up tomorrow.
<< <i>Since I ordered the Prosperity Set and the plat within the same order, do you think that the questionable status of the availability of the plat is what is holding up my order? Why wouldn't they mail out the Prosperity Set and keep the plat on backorder, or vice versa, assuming at least one of these items will be available? Is my plat on the dreaded "backorder" list, awaiting a return to fill my order? If so, why would my account still say "in stock and reserved"? The cancel boxes disappeared a week ago. >>
paste your order # in the box and put your zip in. fedex
Half still doesnt know what he is talking about.....give it a rest. Read up. Get a little more wise.
he declares the 06w uncs kings when numbers havent moved, clearly there was NO UPDATE made for any additional RETURNS and CANCELLATIONS are still not included in the totals........i'm confused, halfstrike an expert? not quite.
Running off at the mouth again.
Guys - I'm not gonna say this many more times, but you will be surprised when the FINAL numbers are presented on these plat uncs.
8 weeks and counting. No substantial deliveries. I have a total reported count of over 500 cancellations on the 1/4 unc NOT in the numbers and we have heard of over 400 sets NOT deducted as well.
IMO, just on what we know single coin 1/4 unc plats will be at least AT 1/2 oz unc levels of 1200-1250. 4 coin sets will not breach 1250.
The USM - as far as we know - is not as efficient as one might think processing returns. Certain issues returns get processed as a bulk group at times, when other issues numbers dont move, then in the following weeks, its time for other issues to get adjusted. We haven't been able to make rhyme or reason of it. And I guess we never will.
IMO - 2008-w unc plats will be the new kings. With all the other products being short struck, this group was not left out. It would be very foolish to expect it to be minted in high numbers when corroborating evidence shows just the opposite.
Someone just bought a $50 '04 proof plat in OGP for, I think, $1395, on APMEX. HUGE crash in this coin's value. Credit the economy and the '08. It'll be interesting how low these go.
inconceivable? no. someone thinks they bought them. but they'll never receive product.
ask the guys who still have uncancelled orders out there for 8 weeks and nothing ever shows up in their mailbox.
and if you still think that those unc plats were actually struck to those rediculous levels, get ready for huge sales adjustments on our beloved buffalos and proof plats........no say you? then you bet the farm that those unc's are short struck too!!!!
7/8 I think I was fairly accurate in my analysis of these coin series. I know some of you disagreed but in the end I think the aftermarket sales are showing I knew what I was talking about. I am sorry you are mad about the w unc but all we have are the mint numbers and they show the 2006 w unc are still the kings. Until they are lowered by almost 1000 coins per denomination which I think unlikely then the 2006 will stay king forever barring some disaster with the regular strike coins.
<< <i>I wouldn't be surprised in ten years for a set of these proof to be $12,000 or more.
I hope so.
I bought 2 sets in May for the original price (4119.95 each) and 5 $25s ($609.95 each); maybe I'll breakeven on them after all.
Heck, they're still in the sealed box, so remain First Strike eligible. I'm not a fan of the First Strike conceptually, but the low mintages plus First Strike eligibility might help me reach breakeven sooner rather than later. >>
I hear you! I paid nearly $3k for a PCGS 2008 $50 Plat. Proof PR70DCAM FS just after they were taken off sale the first time, thinking that they may be ultra-low (i.e, 500ish) mintage keys. Hopefully, in years to come, I'll at least break even on that one.
Again you are quoting foolishness. I dont even know why I read your rediculous posts anymore.
1000 coins?
You already have experienced a decrease due from returns of 337 1/4 oz unc coins. Cancellations reported of over 500 more.
Nothing substantial delivered lacking a few returns and repackaged coins on this issue for 8 weeks.
4 coins sets, again 900+ sets in question, cancellations of 400 sets reported, nothing substantial delivered in 5 weeks.
It's not going to take a disaster, only a proper reconciliation by the USM. Cancellations have not been included in ANY numbers.
Sales numbers will not show much movement for the next two weeks, as expected, due to the holiday's.
I understand that reconciled numbers will be available in Mid-January.
As for going "light" on these coins as posted by another forum member, if you went heavier on the rest of the products - good for you, you made some money early on.
IMO, as for these unc-w plats, when the correct numbers are released, as I quoted before, there will be tears in your eyes that either you returned them or listened to the boobs on here proclaiming to know something about this market and didnt get any.
I can quote a list of names you want to avoid reading their opinions, ............dont walk.............run the other way............you will be better off
IMO - my opinion of where you end up on 2008 unc w plats (inclusive of 4 coin sets) give or take 50 pieces in either direction
<<My order for a Prosperity Set and a 1/2-oz. Proof plat was placed on 12-08 at 10:31 PM and is still showing "in stock and reserved" with cancel boxes gone. It has been in this status for some time now. I realize that it is just possible that I may never see the plat, but why, especially in the case of the Prosperity Set (which hasn't even gone "backordered" yet) haven't these coins been sent out? Neither of these have ever shown "backordered" on my account page. >>
Have no fear...my 1/2 ounce plat proofs were in the same state as yours...and they suddenly arrived on my mailbox yesterday and today!!! So don't be surprised if you also get a surprise from Santa via the Mint!
And 7over8, I also highly suspect those plat unc. numbers being put out there...so I'm hanging tough!
<< <i>Me too, I am loaded for bear with these so it would be nice to see the unc numbers drop.
Still I have some proofs so it isn't a total waste of credit, and any sub 4,000 platinum is OK to have in my book.
Worse comes to worse, I can sell them and pay the card off with very little skin off my nose.
Whatever the answer is will come out within a few weeks right?
Peace. >>
>>
That's funny. It took well over a year and a half for the mint to reconcile the 2006 numbers. If anyone thinks that the mint will post good numbers on these 2008 coins in january 2009. well..... all I can say to that is
BWAAAAHAAAAAHAAAAAHAAAAHAAA
This is a 2 year hold before the numbers shake out.
<< <i>Lets go with this because this is all we have for now.
AGE 4 coin proof set product limit - 35,000 Sold out at approximately 1/3rd of limit.
If the fractionals sell out at the same rate as the 4 coin set, the scenario would look something like this:
AGE dimes single product limit - 30,000 If it sells out at 1/3rd, that would be 10,000 plus (approx 10 - 15,000 4 coin sets) = 20 - 25,000 total AGE quarters single product limit - 16,000 If it sells out at 1/3rd, that would be 5,334 plus " " " " " " = 15,334 - 20,334 total AGE halves single product limit - 15,000 If it sells out at 1/3rd, that would be 5,000 plus " " " " " " = 15,000 - 20,000 total
2008 w unc platinum numbers are sales numbers, not mintage numbers
Now's the moment where I say:
"That's true, but sales numbers are the best indication we have for mintage. The only real question is whether "sales" figures are made up of orders taken or orders filled? If sales numbers are orders taken, there could be a significant revision when adjusting for unfilled backorders. If sales numbers are orders filled, no substantial revision is forthcoming."
This is normally followed by a post that someone at the Mint told them it includes backorders.
they'll all be teary eyed when those unc -w's come in lower than 2006w......half, vic, coinboy, the whole lot of self proclaimed experts.....
another bunch of johnny come lately's, they know the market, just dont follow them over the cliff.
half is still quoting sales numbers when he already knows of well over 300 and i have been alerted to well over 500 cancellations not included in the numbers he quotes -at a minimum
additionally, half includes 1/4's in 4 coin sets where HE KNOWS are overstated by at least 700-800 sets, and possibly as many as 900 sets.
add them up half. 500+800=1300 CONSERVATIVELY coins overstated on the 1/4. IMO, it will be much higher. so take your number down by at least 1300 - OH MY GOD, unbelievable, its under 2006w......
half, whenever you want to go toe to toe on math skills, let me know,
your knowledge of the numismatic market seems to be limited to the USM sales report. thats it.
a few very respected members on this forum were told the same thing.
I dont understand why you cant comprehend that? You seem like a bright guy ?
The question is not comprehension, it's a question of belief. I haven't seen anything from a knowledgeable source to establish for a certainty that sales numbers include backorders, or that a sale is recorded at the time an order is placed as opposed to when it is filled. On top of that, I think absent good evidence to the contrary, the most reasonable view is that a sale is recorded when something is actually sold, not when it is ordered.
I am certainly open to your theory being right. I'm pretty sure you know that I was right there with you when sales opened in October, in expectation as well as in seizing the opportunity. I'm equally open to the possibility that our early expectation could prove wrong.
The assertion is that 2008s have unseated 2006s. The burden of proof is on the moving party.
*********
Nothing would please me more than to have the backorder theory prove correct, and to wake up a few weeks from now to significantly lower reported sales.
I've got a fair amount of 2008s as well as 2006s -- if 2008s somehow fulfill your expectations, I don't think that makes the 2006 dogs. When it comes to coins with mintages under 3,000, I'd be thrilled to have 2008s join the club.
It's still possible numbers could be revised down signficantly. There's significant circumstantial evidence to suggest it's possible. (1) platinum proofs were short struck compared to 2007. (2) other series were short struck compared to 2007. (3) numbers jumped much higher than expected in a few days. (4) there are STILL open backorders-- I still have an open backorder for 11 sets. If backorders WERE part of the reported sales figures, the adjustment down has yet to take place.
On the other hand, numbers haven't changed for weeks. Even at July 2008 prices-- double the October-November price-- these coins were at 1100 to 1600. We've never seen a series adjusted down by 30%+, as would be required for the 2008s to be under 2006w. We could end up with a significant reduction -- 500 coins across the board--- which would still leave 2006 ahead by a comfortable margin.
<< <i> add them up half. 500+800=1300 CONSERVATIVELY coins overstated on the 1/4. IMO, it will be much higher. so take your number down by at least 1300 - OH MY GOD, unbelievable, its under 2006w......
>>
Meanwhile in the real world the mint numbers aren't changing each week and the 2006 w unc are still king......
PS I got a nice little strike thru with a buffalo from the mint today so thank you mint!
He is right. The actual mintages may be much larger because all sales have not been accounted for yet unless you consider orders to be sales. I beleive the Fed Gov is on a "cash basis" and would not count orders as sales until payment is received.
we already have confirmed that orders have been included in sales numbers by the usm office of public affairs..
right from the horses mouth >>
Maybe we can scan the letter that received from the USM stating this fact. Oh, that's right, it was a phone call, now wasn't it. Who again (name and position) did you talk to?
<< <i>I bought 2 sets in May for the original price (4119.95 each) and 5 $25s ($609.95 each); maybe I'll breakeven on them after all. Heck, they're still in the sealed box, so remain First Strike eligible. I'm not a fan of the First Strike conceptually, but the low mintages plus First Strike eligibility might help me reach breakeven sooner rather than later. >>
Welcome 2009 - and the next installment of how liquidity can be drained out of the Rare Coin Market by a Single Issue Modern (2009 HR)
Last Chapter - 2006, titled "The Bullion Buffalo" ..........
Take some money off the table, it may be a good few months after those 2009 HR's are released before we see these sweet numbers on 2008 issues were have been enjoying......and cash returning to the market
If 2009 is half as good as 2008 was for new Moderns, it'll be a good year. With the economy, though, it'll be a good year to just sit back and watch the 2008 issues appreciate!
Comments
Added, Yes I have had orders with different products and they shipped last. If the order shows in stock and cancel box gone then I bet it shipped today and shows up tomorrow.
<< <i>Since I ordered the Prosperity Set and the plat within the same order, do you think that the questionable status of the availability of the plat is what is holding up my order? Why wouldn't they mail out the Prosperity Set and keep the plat on backorder, or vice versa, assuming at least one of these items will be available? Is my plat on the dreaded "backorder" list, awaiting a return to fill my order? If so, why would my account still say "in stock and reserved"? The cancel boxes disappeared a week ago. >>
paste your order # in the box and put your zip in. fedex
he declares the 06w uncs kings when numbers havent moved, clearly there was NO UPDATE made for any additional RETURNS and CANCELLATIONS are still not included in the totals........i'm confused, halfstrike an expert? not quite.
Running off at the mouth again.
Guys - I'm not gonna say this many more times, but you will be surprised when the FINAL numbers are presented on these plat uncs.
8 weeks and counting. No substantial deliveries. I have a total reported count of over 500 cancellations on the 1/4 unc NOT in the numbers and we have heard of over 400 sets NOT deducted as well.
IMO, just on what we know single coin 1/4 unc plats will be at least AT 1/2 oz unc levels of 1200-1250. 4 coin sets will not breach 1250.
The USM - as far as we know - is not as efficient as one might think processing returns. Certain issues returns get processed as a bulk group at times, when other issues numbers dont move, then in the following weeks, its time for other issues to get adjusted. We haven't been able to make rhyme or reason of it. And I guess we never will.
IMO - 2008-w unc plats will be the new kings. With all the other products being short struck, this group was not left out. It would be very foolish to expect it to be minted in high numbers when corroborating evidence shows just the opposite.
<< <i>You have gone insane! I am truly concerned..... >>
I guess it's just inconceivable to these guys that somebody may have bought them.
I knew I would drag you out of the shadows.....
did you recover from that thrashing you got on the other thread a few days back?
inconceivable? no. someone thinks they bought them. but they'll never receive product.
ask the guys who still have uncancelled orders out there for 8 weeks and nothing ever shows up in their mailbox.
and if you still think that those unc plats were actually struck to those rediculous levels, get ready for huge sales adjustments on our beloved buffalos and proof plats........no say you? then you bet the farm that those unc's are short struck too!!!!
I would hate to be sitting heavy on the APE UNCs!
<< <i>I wouldn't be surprised in ten years for a set of these proof to be $12,000 or more.
I hope so.
I bought 2 sets in May for the original price (4119.95 each) and 5 $25s ($609.95 each); maybe I'll breakeven on them after all.
Heck, they're still in the sealed box, so remain First Strike eligible. I'm not a fan of the First Strike conceptually, but the low mintages plus First Strike eligibility might help me reach breakeven sooner rather than later. >>
I hear you! I paid nearly $3k for a PCGS 2008 $50 Plat. Proof PR70DCAM FS just after they were taken off sale the first time, thinking that they may be ultra-low (i.e, 500ish) mintage keys. Hopefully, in years to come, I'll at least break even on that one.
Again you are quoting foolishness. I dont even know why I read your rediculous posts anymore.
1000 coins?
You already have experienced a decrease due from returns of 337 1/4 oz unc coins. Cancellations reported of over 500 more.
Nothing substantial delivered lacking a few returns and repackaged coins on this issue for 8 weeks.
4 coins sets, again 900+ sets in question, cancellations of 400 sets reported, nothing substantial delivered in 5 weeks.
It's not going to take a disaster, only a proper reconciliation by the USM. Cancellations have not been included in ANY numbers.
Sales numbers will not show much movement for the next two weeks, as expected, due to the holiday's.
I understand that reconciled numbers will be available in Mid-January.
As for going "light" on these coins as posted by another forum member, if you went heavier on the rest of the products - good for you, you made some money early on.
IMO, as for these unc-w plats, when the correct numbers are released, as I quoted before, there will be tears in your eyes that either you returned them or listened to the boobs on here proclaiming to know something about this market and didnt get any.
I can quote a list of names you want to avoid reading their opinions, ............dont walk.............run the other way............you will be better off
IMO - my opinion of where you end up on 2008 unc w plats (inclusive of 4 coin sets) give or take 50 pieces in either direction
1 oz 2500
1/2 oz 2350
1/4 oz 2350
1/10 oz 3350
Have no fear...my 1/2 ounce plat proofs were in the same state as yours...and they suddenly arrived on my mailbox yesterday and today!!! So don't be surprised if you also get a surprise from Santa via the Mint!
And 7over8, I also highly suspect those plat unc. numbers being put out there...so I'm hanging tough!
Still I have some proofs so it isn't a total waste of credit, and any sub 4,000 platinum is OK to have in my book.
Worse comes to worse, I can sell them and pay the card off with very little skin off my nose.
Whatever the answer is will come out within a few weeks right?
Peace.
<< <i>Me too, I am loaded for bear with these so it would be nice to see the unc numbers drop.
Still I have some proofs so it isn't a total waste of credit, and any sub 4,000 platinum is OK to have in my book.
Worse comes to worse, I can sell them and pay the card off with very little skin off my nose.
Whatever the answer is will come out within a few weeks right?
Peace. >>
<< <i>
<< <i>Me too, I am loaded for bear with these so it would be nice to see the unc numbers drop.
Still I have some proofs so it isn't a total waste of credit, and any sub 4,000 platinum is OK to have in my book.
Worse comes to worse, I can sell them and pay the card off with very little skin off my nose.
Whatever the answer is will come out within a few weeks right?
Peace. >>
>>
That's funny. It took well over a year and a half for the mint to reconcile the 2006 numbers. If anyone thinks that the mint will post good numbers on these 2008 coins in january 2009. well..... all I can say to that is
BWAAAAHAAAAAHAAAAAHAAAAHAAA
This is a 2 year hold before the numbers shake out.
JMHO
Doesn't matter if it takes over a year for good numbers to come out, I am confident these will do fine and I can wait.
Merry Christmas and signing off.
"
<< <i>Yep !! Love those numbers !!! >>
Are these #'s the lowest in the series ???
<< <i>Lets go with this because this is all we have for now.
AGE 4 coin proof set product limit - 35,000 Sold out at approximately 1/3rd of limit.
If the fractionals sell out at the same rate as the 4 coin set, the scenario would look something like this:
AGE dimes single product limit - 30,000 If it sells out at 1/3rd, that would be 10,000 plus (approx 10 - 15,000 4 coin sets) = 20 - 25,000 total
AGE quarters single product limit - 16,000 If it sells out at 1/3rd, that would be 5,334 plus " " " " " " = 15,334 - 20,334 total
AGE halves single product limit - 15,000 If it sells out at 1/3rd, that would be 5,000 plus " " " " " " = 15,000 - 20,000 total
The numbers are good enough for me.
<< <i>
Now's the moment where I say:
"That's true, but sales numbers are the best indication we have for mintage. The only real question is whether "sales" figures are made up of orders taken or orders filled? If sales numbers are orders taken, there could be a significant revision when adjusting for unfilled backorders. If sales numbers are orders filled, no substantial revision is forthcoming."
This is normally followed by a post that someone at the Mint told them it includes backorders.
Wait a week and repeat.
your the only smart one in the lot.
they'll all be teary eyed when those unc -w's come in lower than 2006w......half, vic, coinboy, the whole lot of self proclaimed experts.....
another bunch of johnny come lately's, they know the market, just dont follow them over the cliff.
half is still quoting sales numbers when he already knows of well over 300 and i have been alerted to well over 500 cancellations not included in the numbers he quotes -at a minimum
additionally, half includes 1/4's in 4 coin sets where HE KNOWS are overstated by at least 700-800 sets, and possibly as many as 900 sets.
add them up half. 500+800=1300 CONSERVATIVELY coins overstated on the 1/4. IMO, it will be much higher. so take your number down by at least 1300 - OH MY GOD, unbelievable, its under 2006w......
half, whenever you want to go toe to toe on math skills, let me know,
your knowledge of the numismatic market seems to be limited to the USM sales report. thats it.
Wow, look at those 1/2oz AGE Proofs!!!!
a few very respected members on this forum were told the same thing.
I dont understand why you cant comprehend that? You seem like a bright guy ?
they'll all be teary eyed when those unc -w's come in lower than 2006w......half, vic, coinboy, the whole lot of self proclaimed experts.....
another bunch of johnny come lately's, they know the market, just dont follow them over the cliff.
Thus answering the question "what's the difference between being a proponent of a theory and needlessly insulting?"
a few very respected members on this forum were told the same thing.
I dont understand why you cant comprehend that? You seem like a bright guy ?
The question is not comprehension, it's a question of belief. I haven't seen anything from a knowledgeable source to establish for a certainty that sales numbers include backorders, or that a sale is recorded at the time an order is placed as opposed to when it is filled. On top of that, I think absent good evidence to the contrary, the most reasonable view is that a sale is recorded when something is actually sold, not when it is ordered.
I am certainly open to your theory being right. I'm pretty sure you know that I was right there with you when sales opened in October, in expectation as well as in seizing the opportunity. I'm equally open to the possibility that our early expectation could prove wrong.
The assertion is that 2008s have unseated 2006s. The burden of proof is on the moving party.
*********
Nothing would please me more than to have the backorder theory prove correct, and to wake up a few weeks from now to significantly lower reported sales.
I've got a fair amount of 2008s as well as 2006s -- if 2008s somehow fulfill your expectations, I don't think that makes the 2006 dogs. When it comes to coins with mintages under 3,000, I'd be thrilled to have 2008s join the club.
It's still possible numbers could be revised down signficantly. There's significant circumstantial evidence to suggest it's possible. (1) platinum proofs were short struck compared to 2007. (2) other series were short struck compared to 2007. (3) numbers jumped much higher than expected in a few days. (4) there are STILL open backorders-- I still have an open backorder for 11 sets. If backorders WERE part of the reported sales figures, the adjustment down has yet to take place.
On the other hand, numbers haven't changed for weeks. Even at July 2008 prices-- double the October-November price-- these coins were at 1100 to 1600. We've never seen a series adjusted down by 30%+, as would be required for the 2008s to be under 2006w. We could end up with a significant reduction -- 500 coins across the board--- which would still leave 2006 ahead by a comfortable margin.
<< <i>
add them up half. 500+800=1300 CONSERVATIVELY coins overstated on the 1/4. IMO, it will be much higher. so take your number down by at least 1300 - OH MY GOD, unbelievable, its under 2006w......
>>
Meanwhile in the real world the mint numbers aren't changing each week and the 2006 w unc are still king......
PS I got a nice little strike thru with a buffalo from the mint today so thank you mint!
<< <i>littleeagle -
your the only smart one in the lot. >>
Remember 7over8, your are part of "the lot"
He is right. The actual mintages may be much larger because all sales have not been accounted for yet unless you consider orders to be sales. I beleive the Fed Gov is on a "cash basis" and would not count orders as sales until payment is received.
we already have confirmed that orders have been included in sales numbers by the usm office of public affairs..
right from the horses mouth
<< <i>coins101
we already have confirmed that orders have been included in sales numbers by the usm office of public affairs..
right from the horses mouth >>
Maybe we can scan the letter that received from the USM stating this fact. Oh, that's right, it was a phone call, now wasn't it. Who again (name and position) did you talk to?
your name says it all
re-enroll in that class, you might need it
That's OK, he needed it.
<< <i>coins101
your name says it all
re-enroll in that class, you might need it >>
Dude! Me thinks you have sampled too much Christmas eggnog!
YES! Great Call!
<< <i>I bought 2 sets in May for the original price (4119.95 each) and 5 $25s ($609.95 each); maybe I'll breakeven on them after all. Heck, they're still in the sealed box, so remain First Strike eligible. I'm not a fan of the First Strike conceptually, but the low mintages plus First Strike eligibility might help me reach breakeven sooner rather than later. >>
Great Scott! Outta of the Park Home Run, Dan!
Welcome 2009 - and the next installment of how liquidity can be drained out of the Rare Coin Market by a Single Issue Modern (2009 HR)
Last Chapter - 2006, titled "The Bullion Buffalo" ..........
Take some money off the table, it may be a good few months after those 2009 HR's are released before we see these sweet numbers on 2008 issues were have been enjoying......and cash returning to the market
I knew it would happen.
If 2009 is half as good as 2008 was for new Moderns, it'll be a good year. With the economy, though, it'll be a good year to just sit back and watch the 2008 issues appreciate!
Merry Christmas.
Ren(W)