<< <i>About a year ago now FLBUFFALOHUNTER was hung up on some bad data and fought me on it. The sales report - known cancellations put the 2008w coins into the 2-3 thousand range. When the numbers come in down more than 200 coins each I will not tell you I told you so.
Ericj96 >>
Hi Eric-
In the end, what is your best guess: Will the 08 W plat uncs come in lower than the 06 Ws, about the same, some lower, some not? Thanks.
The 1/4 can come down 1000 coins and still be more than 2006. The others 800 to 1000. They may drop more then 200 combined including 4 coin sets which is 400, anyway let's wait and see.
BTW I am not the person that puts together the mint sales report so you aren't fighting me.
Have you guys noticed how low the graded POPs are on the 08-W's? This leads me to believe that they are lower POPs than we believe, or PCGS has some serious problems with the POP report. The $25 is a POP 22 in MS70!
For the $100 there are 53 graded coins for the 08-W's, 288 for the 07-W's, and 1371 for the 06-W's. For the $50 there are 267 graded coins for 08-W's, 371 for the 07-W's, and 964 for the 06-W's. For the $25 there are 51 graded coins for 08-W, 313 for the 07's, and 1074 for the 06-W's For the $10 there are 77 graded coins for the 08-W, 326 for the 07-W's, 1028 for the 06-W's
Lower 2008 submission numbers may also reflect less interest in submitting them for grading. This can clearly be seen when comparing the 2006 and 2007s graded populations. We KNOW 2006 pops are lower but submission numbers far exceed 2007s.
I counted the 06 and 07 for both, however the PCGS pop report is showing the exact same numbers for all the 08 issues for both FS and non-FS, so I only counted one - there does seem to be a problem with the POP report.
393078 2008-W $10 Statue of Liberty MS 31 46 77 393079 2008-W $10 Statue of Liberty First Strike MS 31 46 77 393080 2008-W $25 Statue of Liberty MS 29 22 51 393081 2008-W $25 Statue of Liberty First Strike MS 29 22 51 393082 2008-W $50 Statue of Liberty MS 1 87 179 267 393083 2008-W $50 Statue of Liberty First Strike MS 22 22 44 393084 2008-W $100 Statue of Liberty MS 26 27 53 393085 2008-W $100 Statue of Liberty First Strike MS 26 27 53
<< <i>Have you guys noticed how low the graded POPs are on the 08-W's? This leads me to believe that they are lower POPs than we believe, or PCGS has some serious problems with the POP report. The $25 is a POP 22 in MS70! >>
Could it be that people are finally coming to their senses and realizing that grading for Modern Mint issues is absurd, especially when they look so much nicer in OGP?
If you plastic hounds really want a rare set, you should try compiling one in MS68 or lower!
There were very low 2008 FS numbers because you had to be a fool or really, really want that little flag. The window for FS eligibility coincided with a $900 drop in platinum prices.
I returned a large number of FS eligible coins at end of July because I couldn't stomach a $1500+ instant loss on each 4 coin set.
<< <i>Have you guys noticed how low the graded POPs are on the 08-W's? This leads me to believe that they are lower POPs than we believe, or PCGS has some serious problems with the POP report. The $25 is a POP 22 in MS70! >>
Could it be that people are finally coming to their senses and realizing that grading for Modern Mint issues is absurd, especially when they look so much nicer in OGP? If you plastic hounds really want a rare set, you should try compiling one in MS68 or lower! >>
Thats a very Canadian response. If you can't grade I can see that it would seem absurd, but some of us can grade.
<< <i>Have you guys noticed how low the graded POPs are on the 08-W's? This leads me to believe that they are lower POPs than we believe, or PCGS has some serious problems with the POP report. The $25 is a POP 22 in MS70! >>
Could it be that people are finally coming to their senses and realizing that grading for Modern Mint issues is absurd, especially when they look so much nicer in OGP? If you plastic hounds really want a rare set, you should try compiling one in MS68 or lower! >>
Thats a very Canadian response. If you can't grade I can see that it would seem absurd, but some of us can grade. >>
<< <i>Have you guys noticed how low the graded POPs are on the 08-W's? This leads me to believe that they are lower POPs than we believe, or PCGS has some serious problems with the POP report. The $25 is a POP 22 in MS70! >>
Could it be that people are finally coming to their senses and realizing that grading for Modern Mint issues is absurd, especially when they look so much nicer in OGP?
If you plastic hounds really want a rare set, you should try compiling one in MS68 or lower! >>
Very well said Grits! I'm as guilty as anyone for playing the PCGS 70 game, absurd as it may be. However, without doubt, All of these moderns look SOOO much nicer in the OGP.
Actually, I have to say that the packaging I don't like so well is the unc-w plats and gold. They may as well be in slabs, but those buffs and proofs--gotta hand it to the Mint on those!
<< <i>About a year ago now FLBUFFALOHUNTER was hung up on some bad data and fought me on it. The sales report - known cancellations put the 2008w coins into the 2-3 thousand range. When the numbers come in down more than 200 coins each I will not tell you I told you so. Ericj96 >>
I will not continue to belabor the point. Everyone has an opinion. Everyone has numbers and slick analysis. Some people have good sources of data.
IMO, the USM produced one run at a fraction of the 07w plat unc levels. 60% max. No more were produced. run the numbers. 1/4's at 2350 max.
a pop of 1500 orders on 1/4's on the sales report in one week. eight weeks go by and virtually none delivered. cancellations of orders taken from 10/22 onwards. our count of 1/4 oz cancellations is now over 500 coins. thats only who has reported.
a pop of 900 orders on sets in one week. 6 weeks go by and virtually none delivered. cancellations count 400+ of persons reporting. we have no reason to believe there is more than 1250 sets.
where are all of these coins?
answer = there are no coins. if you are sitting with a backordered unc plat, it will be cancelled if it hasnt been already.
Look for surprisingly low numbers when the final numbers are published on the 08w plats, the new unc-w kings will take out the 06w uncs.
Sounds like i better buy some then, iv'e been idle for a few months now. Everything has been so crazy, i've just tryed to stay out of the way. I think it's finally time, to be bullish! I havn't said that in a while, i noticed the proofs, are in a nice rally now
SEE the BULL!! BUY the BULL!! BE the BULL!! Do your homework first. And, you will learn alot!!
The problem is it doesn't matter how many orders weren't filled, all that matters is how many were minted. Talking about orders not filled is like talking about touchdowns not scored.
All I want is the final numbers whatever they are, if they are less then they are less, but it is better to have the real numbers and see what the truth is.
I still think the best gauge were the 1/2 ounce and if the 1/4 were minted is proportion then they did 1450 1/4's plus whatever 4 coin sets. 1600 4 coin sets puts 1450 is still over 3000 coins so they wouldn't be new keys.
Also as far as me being wrong, i just want to point out for that to happen the buffaloes have to go up 4000, the proof plats have to go up 1500, and the plat unc's have to go down over 1000. That isn't going to happen.
I spread myself out among more than one group of coins so I win no matter what. I still think the buffaloes are incredible coins and am happy I put over half my dough into those. I wish I had bought more. The proof plats will be incredible, and the unc plats we will see. Either way with those I actually win as I own both the 2006 and 2008.
For anyone that holds any four of these series i say hold them all as the mintages are too low no matter what. This is only a discussion on which year is the lowest but whatever happens it is no sweat of my brow.
Nobody has mentioned the gold proofs or gold unc lately but each day they stay available is another day they are worse as far as key coins go. I think the unc gold have a chance still to do well and am hoping they too go dark soon.
The unknown is next year when will the bullion come out as historically the 1/2 and 1/4 gold have not sold well and may tie the 2006 or 2007 years.
The plat bullion may not come out till next Summer and may also be a low mintage.
That could affect the plat unc and gold unc coins but we will see. Anyway good luck to everyone here that plays these coins, this year was amazing no matter what. I love to pull out the 2008 coins to look at, they will be classics to me.
You are correct. Orders do not constitute mintage. You should take a dose of your own medicine.
You have been relying on that order (excuse me, sales) report like it is scripture. You even quote it by saying coins struck cant slip by over 1000 from the numbers currently known. It includes ALL ORDERS TAKEN. ORDERS NOT FILLED are subsequently called CANCELLATIONS, which are NOT DEDUCTED yet from the numbers.
Seems to me like we have already slipped 337 coins from returns and we know of forum members/other customers self reporting another 500+ cancellations, ooooh, just in our small world there is 837 coins.....damn close to a 1000, but the unknown will bring hundreds and hundreds more.
Hopefully the CAPS makes it sink in.
The report is very wrong.
Follow along. It's not that tough.
I dont know where you get 1450 1/4's from, maybe you pull it out of thin air. The 1/4's will not be produced in excess of 1/2 uncs. We all seem to think the 1/2's are less than 1250 coins. Most believe 1100-1200 1/2's.
1600 sets? Too high. 1250? I put my money on the backorder point. 1257.
Add 'em up. Less than 06w.
Get your hanky ready to wipe your eyes. You're gonna need it after you have blown your best chance on owning the true rarities and kings of the unc-w plats.....
7/8 the backorder point for the 4 coin sets was not 1257. You must have been on vacation the week the 4 coin sets sold out, but a few of us remember them being available when the coins were repriced. That was a Thursday many days past 1257 and that is the day they went backorder the second time.
So more than 1257 was the backorder point, not 1257 exactly.
Let me repeat this again,
More than 1257 was the backorder point, not 1257 exactly.
How many past 1257 is the question. Now I have told you this too many times and you pretend that 1257 is still the backorder point. Why is that?
Also I purchased the 2006 unc plats, I have been through this before with the unc plats. You seem to have forgotten all that happened back then. The numbers never dropped, the 1 ounce went up eventually. Etc.
I do admit the numbers went high and have said I expect a drop, but you expect a crash. I am not sure the mint goofed that badly as the 1/2 ounce seems to be accurate.
Anyway we will see eventually, I am happy no matter what.
But if you expect others to believe your story then try to stick to the facts. The backorder for the 4 coin sets was not 1257. No way, no how.
I am being asked if the 06-W MS Burnished Mintage will end up being lower than 08-W when "all the dust settles". Not 100% sure (my guess is 06-W will be the winner), but, this much is clear...
The 06-W MS70FS sets are not available at $5,000/set, nor are non-FS PCGS-MS70 sets at $4,000 - $4,500/set. Meanwhile, 08-W MS70 sets are generally NOT selling at $3,500 asking price right now - more like low $3,000's when they come up on ebay from what I have seen. So, the market is not reacting right now as if the 08-W sets will be the low mintage winners.
I have many 2008-W MS70 sets available for sale, but still need 2006-W MS70 sets to fill some open orders. I'll pay a $1,000 add on amount this week if someone out there wants to trade their 2006-W PCGS-MS70 Plat 4-pc set for one of my 2008-W PCGS MS70 4-pc Plat sets. Until my PM's are "lighting up' with takers to my offer (or anyone interested in the trade for that matter), it is obviously (to me at least) that the 06-W plats are still "king".
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I have to agree with you for the most part over this whole situation, as a collector I have ALWAYS looked for the coins with the lowest mintages, I watched all year long in 2000 when the one ounce platinum Liberty was GETTING READY TO END PRODUCTION, I dont remember now total mintage but I knew for a fact it was a keeper, I only wish I was able to buy more at the time, that coin will do nothing but sky rocket in the up coming years, I have always believed low mintage high dollars, for the most part that is true with the exception of the ulgy ducklings that come along...the one ounce platinum I knew was the way to go, unfortunatly at the time my bank account thought otherwise....bottom line if you have the money now is an excellent time to buy.....
<< <i>I am being asked if the 06-W MS Burnished Mintage will end up being lower than 08-W when "all the dust settles". Not 100% sure (my guess is 06-W will be the winner), but, this much is clear...
The 06-W MS70FS sets are not available at $5,000/set, nor are non-FS PCGS-MS70 sets at $4,000 - $4,500/set. Meanwhile, 08-W MS70 sets are generally NOT selling at $3,500 asking price right now - more like low $3,000's when they come up on ebay from what I have seen. So, the market is not reacting right now as if the 08-W sets will be the low mintage winners.
I have many 2008-W MS70 sets available for sale, but still need 2006-W MS70 sets to fill some open orders. I'll pay a $1,000 add on amount this week if someone out there wants to trade their 2006-W PCGS-MS70 Plat 4-pc set for one of my 2008-W PCGS MS70 4-pc Plat sets. Until my PM's are "lighting up' with takers to my offer (or anyone interested in the trade for that matter), it is obviously (to me at least) that the 06-W plats are still "king".
Wondercoin >>
The market never lies but can be slow. I think people are tighter now and waiting on the sideline. I have an 08-W MS70 on Ebay right now for $3100. I have a bunch of "watchers" but no takers as of yet. I have an 06-W MS70 set sans the 1/10th OZ and would not begin to think about selling it at $3100.
Looking at the POP's I have to believe that the 08's are more rare than the 06's but no one knows. I do remember that well into 07 the mint revised the $100 plats UP, really was not a welcome, I honestly don't think we will know for a few months.
Can someone do a FOIA request on how the Mint does its accounting and how the "published" sales are calculated?
>>So, the market is not reacting right now as if the 08-W sets will be the low mintage winners.<<
At today's prices, I don't consider the 2008-W burnished plats to be overly risky. For example, the 1/10 oz. is available off and on for under $200. If the mintage is around 4600, that's a very good price. If the mintage turns out to be around 3300, I consider it a screaming buy. You can't find a 2006-W burinshed 1/10 oz. (mintage 3544) at anywhere near that price.
How can the market react properly when the USM sales reports is so skewed?
When buyers *think* there are many more coins than there actually are, pricing acts accordingly.
The pattern of events and data collected about cancellations, etc all point to numbers in the 2000-3000 range - with high possibility sub 06w levels, when numbers are reconciled we could be in for a big pop.
About a year ago now FLBUFFALOHUNTER was hung up on some bad data and fought me on it. The sales report - known cancellations put the 2008w coins into the 2-3 thousand range. When the numbers come in down more than 200 coins each I will not tell you I told you so.
Ericj96
I also think it's likely that numbers will come down a bit.
More than 200 is a bold prediction, but it's also a far cry from the 1,000+ coin drop per denomination needed to get these under 2006, which is what 7over8 insists will happen.
Whatever the drop, I'm not worried about my 2008w uncirculated platinums.
One prediction from 7over8 that I can guarantee will fail.
Everyone has an opinion. Everyone has numbers and slick analysis. Some people have good sources of data.
The sales numbers I provided in the chart a few posts back are the only data on these coins any of us have. Listing them isn't "slick analysis."
IMO, the USM produced one run at a fraction of the 07w plat unc levels. 60% max. No more were produced.
opinion based on what evidence? how do you decide "60% max"? Why not 35% why not 80%? My problem with your analysis is that it is based on only 2 years of data -- 2006, which was a partial year and 1st year of sales, and 2007, which didn't experience the bullion fluctuations, sales hiatus and end of production announcement of 2008, and suggests-- no, insists-- that those 2 years of data have good predictive value for 2008s.
run the numbers. 1/4's at 2350 max.
I could run the numbers using any arbitrary figure. 60%, 35%, 80%. The problem isn't simple multiplication, the problem is that as near as I can tell there is NO reason that the 60% figure you insist on must be correct. It may be correct, just as any randomly picked number could be correct. It's a little more complicated than that, of course... we know it isn't 0%, or 10%. The Mint COULD have done a full run, but that is also unlikely. What they actually produced will be known eventually, for know we are just making guesses, mostly based on what WE would do if WE were the Mint. But we also know the Mint does NOT make perfect decisions. Look at the mintage figures for 2007 reverse proof platinum sets, and the pricing and sales of those. None of us would argue that it was a good decision to run that many coins, or think there was market support for 30,000 sets when the collector base was easily under 10,000.
a pop of 1500 orders on 1/4's on the sales report in one week. eight weeks go by and virtually none delivered.
you keep repeating that. How do you know "virtually none delivered"? Absent a survey of every person who ordered coins in the last couple of weeks of sales, there's no way of knowing what was delivered and what wasn't. Even assuming that sales include backorders (which is believed to be true but I haven't seen evidence to show it), we can hobble together a few stories by people with unfilled backorders, but that doesn't mean virtually none were filled, just that some weren't filled.
cancellations of orders taken from 10/22 onwards. our count of 1/4 oz cancellations is now over 500 coins. thats only who has reported. Again, this is assuming that sales figures = order figures and include backorders. I'll take your word on the count of 1/4 cancellations being over 500 coins; I know some reported cancellations, but I haven't counted.
where are all of these coins?
Since none of us have access to the list of all backorders or access to information to show what was filled, this is a question that can't be answered.
But don't let that stop you.
answer = there are no coins.
I guess I had that coming.
if you are sitting with a backordered unc plat, it will be cancelled if it hasnt been already.
I agree with you on this... we can tell from experience that these long term backorders have almost no chance of being filled, and are eventually cancelled.
I have a backorder of 11 sets and no expectation of it being filled. It still hasn't been cancelled. So to the extent that supports your theory, I'm with you.
Look for surprisingly low numbers when the final numbers are published on the 08w plats, the new unc-w kings will take out the 06w uncs.
Again, you lose a ton of credibility when you mix up all this soft data and speculation and then make iron-clad statements like this.
Could the 2008ws be lower than 2006? possibly, but you'll note I along with other long term platinum guys who have played this game from the start, including Eric (who just posted that he expects numbers to drop "over 200" coins) and Wondercoin refrain from making statements like this, because we all recognize the difference between speculation and fact. We're all just making best guesses right now; only the Mint has the facts.
7over 8 now posts with high possibility sub 06w levels
Could he be backing off from iron-clad predictions of 2006 killers??
Add 'em up. Less than 06w. Get your hanky ready to wipe your eyes. You're gonna need it after you have blown your best chance on owning the true rarities and kings of the unc-w plats.....
At today's prices, I don't consider the 2008-W burnished plats to be overly risky. For example, the 1/10 oz. is available off and on for under $200. If the mintage is around 4600, that's a very good price. If the mintage turns out to be around 3300, I consider it a screaming buy. You can't find a 2006-W burinshed 1/10 oz. (mintage 3544) at anywhere near that price.
Overdate, thank you. This is the first logical post I've read since logging in this morning. I agree completely, the 2008s are NOT a big risk at this point; they remain available for a small premium to issue price, and based on reported sales figures, we can say with a good degree of certainty that, worst case scenario, mintages are 3,400 to 4,600 across the board. Low downside risk, and good upside potential, whether from (1) increased collector demand (whether driven by lower final mintage figures, growth in collector base, or both) or (2) rebound in bullion price.
Get out that big hanky to wipe the tears from your face when you read the mintages........in January!!! >>
January 2010 maybe..
Get real, its the US Mint.
There is an opportunity cost to tieing up large amounts of capital in the UNC's. You could very well get a better return selectively buying into the stock market at current levels.
There is an opportunity cost to tieing up large amounts of capital in the UNC's.
True, and not recognized often enough. unless you have no debt at all, money spent on coins (or anything) carries a hidden cost-- the interest you could have saved if you used those funds to pay down existing debt. Also, you need to safeguard them, and selling takes time and carries additional transaction costs.
That said, if you pick what you buy carefully, they don't have the downside that stocks do -- silver, gold and platinum will always have some value, while stock could become worthless. Also, it's typically easier to pick a coin that has good potential for a quick return than a stock... It seems like every year there are a few coins that quickly have a 50% or higher return on investment ... it's a little harder to pick stocks that can do the same.
The real opportunity was recognizing that the Mint screwed up in its reporting prior to the closing of the 30 day return window for the UNC's.
Shrewed speculators returned their UNC's and jumped into the Buff's. We are now reaping a quick reward on the Buff's and getting back into the UNC's .
The other option was to hold tight on the plats, tie up thousands of dollars in capital and miss the opportunity on a short term play in the Buffs.
I now have both Buff's and plats at a lower average cost than mint issue price, simply by knowing when to cut bait on the plats when the mint screwed the numbers up.
Platinum Unc W 1282 $100 (-644) 1007 $50 (-250) 1018 $25 (-760) 1635 $10 (-850) 1318 4 coin set (-840)
2008s are the NEW KINGS! Cry into those hankies!!
**source: 7over8's dreams.
Revised to clarify this was a JOKE. Someone wrote that they almost did a BIN on a set based on these numbers, apologies for whatever panic my joke may have caused.
I am being asked if the 06-W MS Burnished Mintage will end up being lower than 08-W when "all the dust settles". Not 100% sure (my guess is 06-W will be the winner), but, this much is clear...
You do realize that everyone who has their hopes pinned on the plat proofs are actually betting that LESS proofs were produced than Uncs, right? And has that ever happened?
So when the revised numbers come out, the Unc collectors might not be the only ones in for a shock!
Comments
<< <i>About a year ago now FLBUFFALOHUNTER was hung up on some bad data and fought me on it. The sales report - known cancellations put the 2008w coins into the 2-3 thousand range. When the numbers come in down more than 200 coins each I will not tell you I told you so.
Ericj96 >>
Hi Eric-
In the end, what is your best guess: Will the 08 W plat uncs come in lower than the 06 Ws, about the same, some lower, some not? Thanks.
BTW I am not the person that puts together the mint sales report so you aren't fighting me.
For the $100 there are 53 graded coins for the 08-W's, 288 for the 07-W's, and 1371 for the 06-W's.
For the $50 there are 267 graded coins for 08-W's, 371 for the 07-W's, and 964 for the 06-W's.
For the $25 there are 51 graded coins for 08-W, 313 for the 07's, and 1074 for the 06-W's
For the $10 there are 77 graded coins for the 08-W, 326 for the 07-W's, 1028 for the 06-W's
Lower 2008 submission numbers may also reflect less interest in submitting them for grading.
This can clearly be seen when comparing the 2006 and 2007s graded populations.
We KNOW 2006 pops are lower but submission numbers far exceed 2007s.
<< <i>Are you counting both FS and non FS?? >>
I counted the 06 and 07 for both, however the PCGS pop report is showing the exact same numbers for all the 08 issues for both FS and non-FS, so I only counted one - there does seem to be a problem with the POP report.
393079 2008-W $10 Statue of Liberty First Strike MS 31 46 77
393080 2008-W $25 Statue of Liberty MS 29 22 51
393081 2008-W $25 Statue of Liberty First Strike MS 29 22 51
393082 2008-W $50 Statue of Liberty MS 1 87 179 267
393083 2008-W $50 Statue of Liberty First Strike MS 22 22 44
393084 2008-W $100 Statue of Liberty MS 26 27 53
393085 2008-W $100 Statue of Liberty First Strike MS 26 27 53
<< <i>Have you guys noticed how low the graded POPs are on the 08-W's? This leads me to believe that they are lower POPs than we believe, or PCGS has some serious problems with the POP report. The $25 is a POP 22 in MS70!
>>
Could it be that people are finally coming to their senses and realizing that grading for Modern Mint issues is absurd, especially when they look so much nicer in OGP?
If you plastic hounds really want a rare set, you should try compiling one in MS68 or lower!
The window for FS eligibility coincided with a $900 drop in platinum prices.
I returned a large number of FS eligible coins at end of July because I couldn't stomach a $1500+ instant loss on each 4 coin set.
<< <i>
<< <i>Have you guys noticed how low the graded POPs are on the 08-W's? This leads me to believe that they are lower POPs than we believe, or PCGS has some serious problems with the POP report. The $25 is a POP 22 in MS70!
>>
Could it be that people are finally coming to their senses and realizing that grading for Modern Mint issues is absurd, especially when they look so much nicer in OGP?
If you plastic hounds really want a rare set, you should try compiling one in MS68 or lower! >>
Thats a very Canadian response. If you can't grade I can see that it would seem absurd, but some of us can grade.
Checking from the Registry sets it shows the following MS70 for the W 1/4 Plat
2008 102
2007 245
2006 221
Joe
Edited to add PCGS # 393080 for 2008
PCGS # 393081 shows 22 for 2008 1st Strike
Edited again to add:
Started a registry set with a 2008 W MS69 to see total pops
393080 81 in MS69 with 102 higher (TOTAL 183)
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Have you guys noticed how low the graded POPs are on the 08-W's? This leads me to believe that they are lower POPs than we believe, or PCGS has some serious problems with the POP report. The $25 is a POP 22 in MS70!
>>
Could it be that people are finally coming to their senses and realizing that grading for Modern Mint issues is absurd, especially when they look so much nicer in OGP?
If you plastic hounds really want a rare set, you should try compiling one in MS68 or lower! >>
Thats a very Canadian response. If you can't grade I can see that it would seem absurd, but some of us can grade. >>
Oooooh! Major Burn!
<< <i>
<< <i>Have you guys noticed how low the graded POPs are on the 08-W's? This leads me to believe that they are lower POPs than we believe, or PCGS has some serious problems with the POP report. The $25 is a POP 22 in MS70!
>>
Could it be that people are finally coming to their senses and realizing that grading for Modern Mint issues is absurd, especially when they look so much nicer in OGP?
If you plastic hounds really want a rare set, you should try compiling one in MS68 or lower! >>
Very well said Grits! I'm as guilty as anyone for playing the PCGS 70 game, absurd as it may be. However, without doubt, All of these moderns look SOOO much nicer in the OGP.
<< <i>About a year ago now FLBUFFALOHUNTER was hung up on some bad data and fought me on it. The sales report - known cancellations put the 2008w coins into the 2-3 thousand range. When the numbers come in down more than 200 coins each I will not tell you I told you so. Ericj96 >>
FLBUFFALOHUNTER = 7/8, They are same guy..
insists that his alter ego (FLBUFFALOHUNTER) is me........
I can assure you that I am the farthest thing from the hunter........another character of epic proportions who has not posted here in some time.
I will not continue to belabor the point. Everyone has an opinion. Everyone has numbers and slick analysis. Some people have good sources of data.
IMO, the USM produced one run at a fraction of the 07w plat unc levels. 60% max. No more were produced. run the numbers. 1/4's at 2350 max.
a pop of 1500 orders on 1/4's on the sales report in one week. eight weeks go by and virtually none delivered. cancellations of orders taken from 10/22 onwards. our count of 1/4 oz cancellations is now over 500 coins. thats only who has reported.
a pop of 900 orders on sets in one week. 6 weeks go by and virtually none delivered. cancellations count 400+ of persons reporting. we have no reason to believe there is more than 1250 sets.
where are all of these coins?
answer = there are no coins. if you are sitting with a backordered unc plat, it will be cancelled if it hasnt been already.
Look for surprisingly low numbers when the final numbers are published on the 08w plats, the new unc-w kings will take out the 06w uncs.
All I want is the final numbers whatever they are, if they are less then they are less, but it is better to have the real numbers and see what the truth is.
I still think the best gauge were the 1/2 ounce and if the 1/4 were minted is proportion then they did 1450 1/4's plus whatever 4 coin sets. 1600 4 coin sets puts 1450 is still over 3000 coins so they wouldn't be new keys.
Also as far as me being wrong, i just want to point out for that to happen the buffaloes have to go up 4000, the proof plats have to go up 1500, and the plat unc's have to go down over 1000. That isn't going to happen.
I spread myself out among more than one group of coins so I win no matter what. I still think the buffaloes are incredible coins and am happy I put over half my dough into those. I wish I had bought more. The proof plats will be incredible, and the unc plats we will see. Either way with those I actually win as I own both the 2006 and 2008.
For anyone that holds any four of these series i say hold them all as the mintages are too low no matter what. This is only a discussion on which year is the lowest but whatever happens it is no sweat of my brow.
Nobody has mentioned the gold proofs or gold unc lately but each day they stay available is another day they are worse as far as key coins go. I think the unc gold have a chance still to do well and am hoping they too go dark soon.
The unknown is next year when will the bullion come out as historically the 1/2 and 1/4 gold have not sold well and may tie the 2006 or 2007 years.
The plat bullion may not come out till next Summer and may also be a low mintage.
That could affect the plat unc and gold unc coins but we will see. Anyway good luck to everyone here that plays these coins, this year was amazing no matter what. I love to pull out the 2008 coins to look at, they will be classics to me.
Patience. Wait and see what will happen.
You are correct. Orders do not constitute mintage. You should take a dose of your own medicine.
You have been relying on that order (excuse me, sales) report like it is scripture. You even quote it by saying coins struck cant slip by over 1000 from the numbers currently known. It includes ALL ORDERS TAKEN. ORDERS NOT FILLED are subsequently called CANCELLATIONS, which are NOT DEDUCTED yet from the numbers.
Seems to me like we have already slipped 337 coins from returns and we know of forum members/other customers self reporting another 500+ cancellations, ooooh, just in our small world there is 837 coins.....damn close to a 1000, but the unknown will bring hundreds and hundreds more.
Hopefully the CAPS makes it sink in.
The report is very wrong.
Follow along. It's not that tough.
I dont know where you get 1450 1/4's from, maybe you pull it out of thin air. The 1/4's will not be produced in excess of 1/2 uncs. We all seem to think the 1/2's are less than 1250 coins. Most believe 1100-1200 1/2's.
1600 sets? Too high. 1250? I put my money on the backorder point. 1257.
Add 'em up. Less than 06w.
Get your hanky ready to wipe your eyes. You're gonna need it after you have blown your best chance on owning the true rarities and kings of the unc-w plats.....
So more than 1257 was the backorder point, not 1257 exactly.
Let me repeat this again,
More than 1257 was the backorder point, not 1257 exactly.
How many past 1257 is the question. Now I have told you this too many times and you pretend that 1257 is still the backorder point. Why is that?
Also I purchased the 2006 unc plats, I have been through this before with the unc plats. You seem to have forgotten all that happened back then. The numbers never dropped, the 1 ounce went up eventually. Etc.
I do admit the numbers went high and have said I expect a drop, but you expect a crash. I am not sure the mint goofed that badly as the 1/2 ounce seems to be accurate.
Anyway we will see eventually, I am happy no matter what.
But if you expect others to believe your story then try to stick to the facts. The backorder for the 4 coin sets was not 1257. No way, no how.
Its like conjuring up the devil, say a few words....*BLAM* resident evil appears!
The 06-W MS70FS sets are not available at $5,000/set, nor are non-FS PCGS-MS70 sets at $4,000 - $4,500/set. Meanwhile, 08-W MS70 sets are generally NOT selling at $3,500 asking price right now - more like low $3,000's when they come up on ebay from what I have seen. So, the market is not reacting right now as if the 08-W sets will be the low mintage winners.
I have many 2008-W MS70 sets available for sale, but still need 2006-W MS70 sets to fill some open orders. I'll pay a $1,000 add on amount this week if someone out there wants to trade their 2006-W PCGS-MS70 Plat 4-pc set for one of my 2008-W PCGS MS70 4-pc Plat sets. Until my PM's are "lighting up' with takers to my offer (or anyone interested in the trade for that matter), it is obviously (to me at least) that the 06-W plats are still "king".
Wondercoin
"Because I can"
myurl The Franklin All Old Green Holder Set
"Because I can"
myurl The Franklin All Old Green Holder Set
<< <i>I am being asked if the 06-W MS Burnished Mintage will end up being lower than 08-W when "all the dust settles". Not 100% sure (my guess is 06-W will be the winner), but, this much is clear...
The 06-W MS70FS sets are not available at $5,000/set, nor are non-FS PCGS-MS70 sets at $4,000 - $4,500/set. Meanwhile, 08-W MS70 sets are generally NOT selling at $3,500 asking price right now - more like low $3,000's when they come up on ebay from what I have seen. So, the market is not reacting right now as if the 08-W sets will be the low mintage winners.
I have many 2008-W MS70 sets available for sale, but still need 2006-W MS70 sets to fill some open orders. I'll pay a $1,000 add on amount this week if someone out there wants to trade their 2006-W PCGS-MS70 Plat 4-pc set for one of my 2008-W PCGS MS70 4-pc Plat sets. Until my PM's are "lighting up' with takers to my offer (or anyone interested in the trade for that matter), it is obviously (to me at least) that the 06-W plats are still "king".
Wondercoin >>
The market never lies but can be slow. I think people are tighter now and waiting on the sideline. I have an 08-W MS70 on Ebay right now for $3100. I have a bunch of "watchers" but no takers as of yet. I have an 06-W MS70 set sans the 1/10th OZ and would not begin to think about selling it at $3100.
Looking at the POP's I have to believe that the 08's are more rare than the 06's but no one knows. I do remember that well into 07 the mint revised the $100 plats UP, really was not a welcome, I honestly don't think we will know for a few months.
Can someone do a FOIA request on how the Mint does its accounting and how the "published" sales are calculated?
At today's prices, I don't consider the 2008-W burnished plats to be overly risky. For example, the 1/10 oz. is available off and on for under $200. If the mintage is around 4600, that's a very good price. If the mintage turns out to be around 3300, I consider it a screaming buy. You can't find a 2006-W burinshed 1/10 oz. (mintage 3544) at anywhere near that price.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
How can the market react properly when the USM sales reports is so skewed?
When buyers *think* there are many more coins than there actually are, pricing acts accordingly.
The pattern of events and data collected about cancellations, etc all point to numbers in the 2000-3000 range - with high possibility sub 06w levels, when numbers are reconciled we could be in for a big pop.
1257.
1257.
1257.
Yes, 1257.
Get out that big hanky to wipe the tears from your face when you read the mintages........in January!!!
How are those Washington Dollar FDc's doing? How about all those Spouse Coins you were pumping?
Ericj96
I also think it's likely that numbers will come down a bit.
More than 200 is a bold prediction, but it's also a far cry from the 1,000+ coin drop per denomination needed to get these under 2006, which is what 7over8 insists will happen.
Whatever the drop, I'm not worried about my 2008w uncirculated platinums.
I will not continue to belabor the point.
One prediction from 7over8 that I can guarantee will fail.
Everyone has an opinion. Everyone has numbers and slick analysis. Some people have good sources of data.
The sales numbers I provided in the chart a few posts back are the only data on these coins any of us have. Listing them isn't "slick analysis."
IMO, the USM produced one run at a fraction of the 07w plat unc levels. 60% max. No more were produced.
opinion based on what evidence? how do you decide "60% max"? Why not 35% why not 80%? My problem with your analysis is that it is based on only 2 years of data -- 2006, which was a partial year and 1st year of sales, and 2007, which didn't experience the bullion fluctuations, sales hiatus and end of production announcement of 2008, and suggests-- no, insists-- that those 2 years of data have good predictive value for 2008s.
run the numbers. 1/4's at 2350 max.
I could run the numbers using any arbitrary figure. 60%, 35%, 80%. The problem isn't simple multiplication, the problem is that as near as I can tell there is NO reason that the 60% figure you insist on must be correct. It may be correct, just as any randomly picked number could be correct. It's a little more complicated than that, of course... we know it isn't 0%, or 10%. The Mint COULD have done a full run, but that is also unlikely. What they actually produced will be known eventually, for know we are just making guesses, mostly based on what WE would do if WE were the Mint. But we also know the Mint does NOT make perfect decisions. Look at the mintage figures for 2007 reverse proof platinum sets, and the pricing and sales of those. None of us would argue that it was a good decision to run that many coins, or think there was market support for 30,000 sets when the collector base was easily under 10,000.
a pop of 1500 orders on 1/4's on the sales report in one week. eight weeks go by and virtually none delivered.
you keep repeating that. How do you know "virtually none delivered"? Absent a survey of every person who ordered coins in the last couple of weeks of sales, there's no way of knowing what was delivered and what wasn't. Even assuming that sales include backorders (which is believed to be true but I haven't seen evidence to show it), we can hobble together a few stories by people with unfilled backorders, but that doesn't mean virtually none were filled, just that some weren't filled.
cancellations of orders taken from 10/22 onwards. our count of 1/4 oz cancellations is now over 500 coins. thats only who has reported.
Again, this is assuming that sales figures = order figures and include backorders. I'll take your word on the count of 1/4 cancellations being over 500 coins; I know some reported cancellations, but I haven't counted.
where are all of these coins?
Since none of us have access to the list of all backorders or access to information to show what was filled, this is a question that can't be answered.
But don't let that stop you.
answer = there are no coins.
I guess I had that coming.
if you are sitting with a backordered unc plat, it will be cancelled if it hasnt been already.
I agree with you on this... we can tell from experience that these long term backorders have almost no chance of being filled, and are eventually cancelled.
I have a backorder of 11 sets and no expectation of it being filled. It still hasn't been cancelled. So to the extent that supports your theory, I'm with you.
Look for surprisingly low numbers when the final numbers are published on the 08w plats, the new unc-w kings will take out the 06w uncs.
Again, you lose a ton of credibility when you mix up all this soft data and speculation and then make iron-clad statements like this.
Could the 2008ws be lower than 2006? possibly, but you'll note I along with other long term platinum guys who have played this game from the start, including Eric (who just posted that he expects numbers to drop "over 200" coins) and Wondercoin refrain from making statements like this, because we all recognize the difference between speculation and fact. We're all just making best guesses right now; only the Mint has the facts.
Could he be backing off from iron-clad predictions of 2006 killers??
Add 'em up. Less than 06w. Get your hanky ready to wipe your eyes. You're gonna need it after you have blown your best chance on owning the true rarities and kings of the unc-w plats.....
I guess not.
Overdate, thank you. This is the first logical post I've read since logging in this morning. I agree completely, the 2008s are NOT a big risk at this point; they remain available for a small premium to issue price, and based on reported sales figures, we can say with a good degree of certainty that, worst case scenario, mintages are 3,400 to 4,600 across the board. Low downside risk, and good upside potential, whether from (1) increased collector demand (whether driven by lower final mintage figures, growth in collector base, or both) or (2) rebound in bullion price.
<< <i>Half -
1257.
1257.
1257.
Yes, 1257.
Get out that big hanky to wipe the tears from your face when you read the mintages........in January!!! >>
January 2010 maybe..
Get real, its the US Mint.
There is an opportunity cost to tieing up large amounts of capital in the UNC's. You could very well get a better return selectively buying into the stock market at current levels.
True, and not recognized often enough. unless you have no debt at all, money spent on coins (or anything) carries a hidden cost-- the interest you could have saved if you used those funds to pay down existing debt. Also, you need to safeguard them, and selling takes time and carries additional transaction costs.
That said, if you pick what you buy carefully, they don't have the downside that stocks do -- silver, gold and platinum will always have some value, while stock could become worthless. Also, it's typically easier to pick a coin that has good potential for a quick return than a stock... It seems like every year there are a few coins that quickly have a 50% or higher return on investment ... it's a little harder to pick stocks that can do the same.
Shrewed speculators returned their UNC's and jumped into the Buff's. We are now reaping a quick reward on the Buff's and getting back into the UNC's .
The other option was to hold tight on the plats, tie up thousands of dollars in capital and miss the opportunity on a short term play in the Buffs.
I now have both Buff's and plats at a lower average cost than mint issue price, simply by knowing when to cut bait on the plats when the mint screwed the numbers up.
No harm, no foul. Only smiles.
Is today skewed number release day at the Mint?!?
Gotta get people fired up around here for another week of sniping!
THIS IS A JOKE. NOT REAL
Big changes on the platinum unc-ws!
Platinum Unc W
1282 $100 (-644)
1007 $50 (-250)
1018 $25 (-760)
1635 $10 (-850)
1318 4 coin set (-840)
2008s are the NEW KINGS! Cry into those hankies!!
**source: 7over8's dreams.
Revised to clarify this was a JOKE. Someone wrote that they almost did a BIN on a set based on these numbers, apologies for whatever panic my joke may have caused.
<< <i>Numbers as of December 28**
Big changes on the platinum unc-ws!
Platinum Unc W
1282 $100 (-644)
1007 $50 (-250)
1018 $25 (-760)
1635 $10 (-850)
1318 4 coin set (-840)
2008s are the NEW KINGS! Cry into those hankies!!
**source: 7over8's dreams.
That's cold man
<< <i>Numbers as of December 28**
Big changes on the platinum unc-ws!
Platinum Unc W
1282 $100 (-644)
1007 $50 (-250)
1018 $25 (-760)
1635 $10 (-850)
1318 4 coin set (-840)
2008s are the NEW KINGS! Cry into those hankies!!
**source: 7over8's dreams.
Took me a minute but that some funny chit.
Now that's just WRONG!
Please don't do sh*t like that!
Big changes on the platinum unc-ws!
Platinum Unc W
1282 $100 (-644)
1007 $50 (-250)
1018 $25 (-760)
1635 $10 (-850)
1318 4 coin set (-840)
2008s are the NEW KINGS! Cry into those hankies!!
**source: 7over8's dreams.
GAAAAAAAAAAA! I was putting those numbers into my chart!!!
I knew it would happen.
Me too!
Enough said!
Short of EBay, Mitch is the Market Maker.
This used to be a top notch thread.......
So when the revised numbers come out, the Unc collectors might not be the only ones in for a shock!
LOL! Other than the pictures I have seen, that's as close to a Spouse Coin I would get.
I owned a couple for 2 hrs. , quickly wrapped it up for sale, and shipped.
These GW Covers are holding 100%+ over issue, right NOW.
Considering I got most at issue price, I'd say that's much Better than that huge stack of 2008 W Unc Plats, sitting behind you.