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    OK...ALL BS aside.....

    Given the following....what would a reasonable person deduce?

    1. The mint reports "orders".

    2. The mint changes it's reports of "orders" based upon returns and cancellations (this must be conceded, given the numbers sometimes move backwards).

    3. The mint is under no mandate to report accurate numbers on a timely basis.

    I propose the following:

    The mint's report of "sales" can be be useful as a guide to the possible top mintage (given a couple of weeks to catch up). It can not be useful in setting a mintage number UNDER that reported number.

    In other words, once a xxxx goes red, and then black, we all look at the reported sales number......

    What we are seeing, after all is done in a couple of weeks....is the MAX for xxxx....

    It won't increase from there.....witness the 08 w plats uncs...it has only decreased. Many other series that have closed out recently will soon be up against their "MAX" number...but the (lower) final number number will take a couple of years...or a FOI demand.

    How much they decrease (all series of 2008 W) is the $64K question....

    FloridaBill

    Text
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    Everyone blames you FB, for sending all those Plats back to the Mint image
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    CasmanCasman Posts: 3,935 ✭✭


    << <i>Hundreds and Hundreds and Hundreds of cancellations of plat unc-w's

    and yet

    THE SALES REPORT STILL DOESNT REFLECT THEM......

    hundreds if not a 1000 orders taken after backorder for the 1/4 uncs and 4 coins sets,

    and yet

    NO ONE RECEIVES ANY SUBSTANTIAL SHIPMENTS ON ANY OF THESE ORDERS FOR 7 WEEKS!!!!!

    If all those coins were produced and sold.......

    WHERE ARE THEY? >>




    But we still don't know how many received substantial orders early on, we don't know everybody, and with small numbers to begin with, it doesn't take too many friends and buddies to pop the numbers...
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Casman -

    The numbers early on - "pre backorder" or "at the point of backorder" are considered in the USM's sales and reported at that time -

    for example - for 1/4 unc's the backorder number was 615 - 1 day prior to backorder point. Our opinion that no more than double that amount - another 615 coins would have been sold in one day.......given the abysmal sales up to that date (they went from high 400's in number to 615 in 3 days......~150 coins in three days, so on a Tuesday after that blistering 50 coins a day we should expect another 1500 coins sold..?

    No. Absolutely not. Rediculous.

    IMO, what happened is the vast majority of buyers came home the evening of the 22nd and saw that the coin had went backorder 10/22 about 5:00-5:30pm, and PILED IN. No stops by the USM, just take the ORDERS. In case of returns, there will be many waiting in line to suck any returns up........

    The next week, the ORDERS taken report stated SALES at 2115 coins!

    And by the way, this happened to tenths (to the tune of about 500 coins), to 4 coin sets and to a lesser extent the other options as well in the plat unc series.

    So, in conclusion orders taken up to backorder point WE ASSUME WERE DELIVERED.

    It's the 1,000+++ orders AFTER that point WHICH WERE NOT DELIVERED.

    7 weeks later. Hundreds and Hundreds of cancelled orders still not reflected in the sales report. No substantial receipts of plat unc's (1/4's in this example) received since then.....save for a few single pieces from returns.

    Several large orders placed by friends of mine the evening of the 22nd, the morning of the 23rd, the 24th as well. NEVER RECEIVED. The orders placed the 23rd and24th and beyond NOW CANCELLED.

    My question still stands "WHERE ARE THE COINS?????"

    Still waiting for intelligent, reasonable responses......(this excludes two forum members who apparently missed the party)
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Half -

    While you were sleeping, smart folks all over are holding on tight to the new king of kings

    the 2008-w plat uncs......

    it's unfortunate you wont be part of that winning team.....
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    GritsManGritsMan Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Half -

    While you were sleeping, smart folks all over are holding on tight to the new king of kings

    the 2008-w plat uncs......

    it's unfortunate you wont be part of that winning team..... >>



    Half and 7/8, thank you for the great entertainment.

    7/8, all I can say is you must be sitting on a LOT of 2008-w unc plats to be pushing them so hard. I will not be surprised if you're right--or wrong, and am not bothered either way. BUT, my gut says the '08 proofs will fare better in the long run, so just beware that if you crown a new king prematurely, Cromwell might come roaring in with his renegade troops and pull a coup d'etat!
    Winner of the Coveted Devil Award June 8th, 2010
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    GritsManGritsMan Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭
    Drei3ree,

    By any chance have you made a chart of the silver eagles? I'm wondering how the '08s stack up to previous years. I'll bet a lot of other people are curious about that, too! Thanks in advance!
    Winner of the Coveted Devil Award June 8th, 2010
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    << <i>Yeah.................what a bummer.
    Almost a full 24 hours and no pop in price.
    So much for the buy and hold theory.


    it's only natural to hope for/expect some secondary market response when a coin sells out with low numbers. >>



    Yes but we forget the that the info we share on a minute by minute basis is far from general knowledge.
    Those who haunt these boards and especially this thread must realize if we learn of a sellout it will be days, weeks, or months before it becomes general knowledge.

    To expect a bump in prices within 24 hours is a bit unrealistic.......................
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    << <i>Half -

    While you were sleeping, smart folks all over are holding on tight to the new king of kings

    the 2008-w plat uncs......

    it's unfortunate you wont be part of that winning team..... >>



    7over8.............You are sounding increasingly shrill and desperate.
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    PlacidPlacid Posts: 11,301 ✭✭✭
    New mint stats up for dec 18th.
    image
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,532 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Since my 2008-W Uncs will be pretty much worthless, I guess I should go ahead and dump them. Maybe I can get at least the spot price of platinum on ebay and still take the tax loss this year to offset some other gains.

    Do ya'll know anyone that might need a few extra Uncs?image



















    Surely, you didn't think that I was serious - did you?image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    Half -

    While you were sleeping, smart folks all over are holding on tight to the new king of kings

    the 2008-w plat uncs......

    it's unfortunate you wont be part of that winning team.....



    7over8, you forgot to say "IMO"

    If sales figures are comprised of open orders instead of filled orders -- which you say is the case and I'm trying to verify-- a revision down should be coming. It's a theory that eventually will be proven or disproven by the facts. So far, nothing has changed and it doesn't even look close.

    The smart folks who are holding on tight are doing so because the secondary market for the new king of kings sucks right now.

    Dan
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    nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    Surely, you didn't think that I was serious - did you?

    lol, actually, I did!

    I continue to think the 2008-ws will be okay regardless of if they beat 2006 or not. Mintages under 5,000, plus even if the numismatic market doesn't materialize in the short run, the bullion market could recover.
    Dan
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    CasmanCasman Posts: 3,935 ✭✭


    << <i>Casman -

    The numbers early on - "pre backorder" or "at the point of backorder" are considered in the USM's sales and reported at that time -

    for example - for 1/4 unc's the backorder number was 615 - 1 day prior to backorder point. Our opinion that no more than double that amount - another 615 coins would have been sold in one day.......given the abysmal sales up to that date (they went from high 400's in number to 615 in 3 days......~150 coins in three days, so on a Tuesday after that blistering 50 coins a day we should expect another 1500 coins sold..?

    No. Absolutely not. Rediculous.

    IMO, what happened is the vast majority of buyers came home the evening of the 22nd and saw that the coin had went backorder 10/22 about 5:00-5:30pm, and PILED IN. No stops by the USM, just take the ORDERS. In case of returns, there will be many waiting in line to suck any returns up........

    The next week, the ORDERS taken report stated SALES at 2115 coins!

    And by the way, this happened to tenths (to the tune of about 500 coins), to 4 coin sets and to a lesser extent the other options as well in the plat unc series.

    So, in conclusion orders taken up to backorder point WE ASSUME WERE DELIVERED.

    It's the 1,000+++ orders AFTER that point WHICH WERE NOT DELIVERED.

    7 weeks later. Hundreds and Hundreds of cancelled orders still not reflected in the sales report. No substantial receipts of plat unc's (1/4's in this example) received since then.....save for a few single pieces from returns.

    Several large orders placed by friends of mine the evening of the 22nd, the morning of the 23rd, the 24th as well. NEVER RECEIVED. The orders placed the 23rd and24th and beyond NOW CANCELLED.

    My question still stands "WHERE ARE THE COINS?????"

    Still waiting for intelligent, reasonable responses......(this excludes two forum members who apparently missed the party) >>




    They started back on sale on the 17th, there was a 6 day window of orders, I highly doubt only 150 were sold in 3 days. Just look at the poll of how many were ordered and how many were actually received by just by the guys here, Oh we didn't do one of those....image
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,532 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Surely, you didn't think that I was serious - did you?

    lol, actually, I did!

    I continue to think the 2008-ws will be okay regardless of if they beat 2006 or not. Mintages under 5,000, plus even if the numismatic market doesn't materialize in the short run, the bullion market could recover.


    Man, I just have to sit back and marvel at the guys who "expect" to double their money in a week or two, and who really have such a short time horizon.

    They'll be missing out on some of the lowest mintage coins in a century by selling way, way, way too early. They've had the benefit of some very sage advice and some very good market analysis in this thread, and yet - it goes into one ear, and out the other!!!

    My opinion - if you don't buy platinum to hold onto for at least a little while then you really ought not to be buying it. Some investments just take awhile to mature.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    LALASD4LALASD4 Posts: 3,602 ✭✭✭
    If the 2008 w proof Platinums are so good, why are they being sold for only $2150 a set? Below Mint price, way below after fees. Just something else to think above this morning.

    Maybe no one wants platinum.image
    Coin Collector, Chicken Owner, Licensed Tax Preparer & Insurance Broker/Agent.
    San Diego, CA


    image
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,980 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>If the 2008 w proof Platinums are so good, why are they being sold for only $2150 a set? Below Mint price, way below after fees. Just something else to think above this morning.

    Maybe no one wants platinum.image >>



    I wish I had backed up the truck for those Golden Buff Fractionals!!!!image
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    smokincoinsmokincoin Posts: 2,631 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Maybe no one wants platinum.image >>


    I'm one of those "no one"s!
    Other than those who've got more money than the bank; who can afford it? It's a rich man's game.
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    drei3reedrei3ree Posts: 3,430 ✭✭✭✭
    This is my post from another thread:

    See if I have this right. Top 10 non-error/variety U.S. moderns:

    1. 2,577; 2006-W UNC $50 APE

    2. 2,676; 2006-W UNC $25 APE

    3. 3,068; 2006-W UNC $100 APE

    4. 3,415; 2008-W UNC $50 APE

    5. 3,544; 2006-W UNC $10 APE

    6. 3,672; 2008-W PR $50 APE

    7. 3,900; 2007-W UNC $25 APE

    8. 3,909; 2008-W PR $25 APE

    9. 3,930; 2007-W UNC $50 APE

    10. 3,936; 2008-W UNC $25 APE


    ALL under 4,000! WOW
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    Yeah..........WOW
    And the 2008s are subject to revision.
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wow, Plat proof #s blow '04 away so far. It's hard to imagine that they won't be the new Plat Proof Kings by a substantial margin.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>If the 2008 w proof Platinums are so good, why are they being sold for only $2150 a set? Below Mint price, way below after fees. Just something else to think above this morning.

    Maybe no one wants platinum.image >>



    An excellent question. It's possible that the sellers don't realize that the latest numbers post sell-out look extremely good for the 08 proof plats. Note that acutions at this level sell in a couple of hours. The latest seller at this level does not even have them in hand and his auctions still sell very, very quickly at this price. If no one wants plats, why have the '04 done so well over the past few years?
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    drei3reedrei3ree Posts: 3,430 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>This is my post from another thread:

    See if I have this right. Top 10 non-error/variety U.S. moderns:

    1. 2,577; 2006-W UNC $50 APE

    2. 2,676; 2006-W UNC $25 APE

    3. 3,068; 2006-W UNC $100 APE

    4. 3,415; 2008-W UNC $50 APE

    5. 3,544; 2006-W UNC $10 APE

    6. 3,672; 2008-W PR $50 APE

    7. 3,900; 2007-W UNC $25 APE

    8. 3,909; 2008-W PR $25 APE

    9. 3,930; 2007-W UNC $50 APE

    10. 3,936; 2008-W UNC $25 APE


    ALL under 4,000! WOW >>




    If you don't believe that "someday" the aforementioned coins will be worth LOTS more than they are today, then you're really out of touch! How soon...??? But, they will. If you're looking for a quick 100% return, you might want to consider prostitution, drugs, or gaming.
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    drei3reedrei3ree Posts: 3,430 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>image

    The last column shows the lowest's percentage of the 2nd lowest (red vs. green). >>



    I removed the bullion--since their relevance is practically nil.
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,980 ✭✭✭✭✭
    12/18/08 Charts.......


    image

    image

    image

    image
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    Coins101Coins101 Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭
    Anyone have a chart showing the mintages of the AGE Unc and PR by year like the one drei3ree posted above for the Plats?
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,980 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Anyone have a chart showing the mintages of the AGE Unc and PR by year like the one above for the Plats? >>



    Never mind this post
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    coolestcoolest Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭
    Is it now a fact that the 08 Proof Plats are the lowest mintage Proofs?
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    nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    I wouldn't call it a Fact, since the mintages aren't finalized. It's more of a foregone conclusion.
    Dan
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    Has anyone gotten delivery of any of those Proof Platinums purchased the last day before the close of sales.

    I've got some pending....in stock and reserved with no cancel box but no shipment.

    Anyone receive their last minute orders??
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    Coins101Coins101 Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Has anyone gotten delivery of any of those Proof Platinums purchased the last day before the close of sales.

    I've got some pending....in stock and reserved with no cancel box but no shipment.

    Anyone receive their last minute orders?? >>



    I am in the same boat.
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    Where can I buy these Plat sets ($2,150)? Or, just buy them and I'll give you a profit!
    "There's no free lunch" MF
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    HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Half -

    While you were sleeping, smart folks all over are holding on tight to the new king of kings

    the 2008-w plat uncs......

    it's unfortunate you wont be part of that winning team..... >>



    My buffaloes are trampling all over the 2008 w unc coins it appears.

    image

    I begged you to listen 7/8 on how good the buffaloes would be but you refused my detailed analysis, oh well.

    Here is a coin tip for you, check the bottom of the latest mint statistics, do you see anything unusual?

    ....

    ....

    It is the date, it was compiled on a Tuesday so this weeks numbers took into account the canceled orders from Monday already.

    I still want to see another couple of weeks on the proof numbers to be sure they are as low as I hope but I still have my 30 day generous return privilege from the mint to use. You should have used that on the 2008 w unc when you had the chance and gotten into the buffaloes and proofs. We begged you but oh well, it is all water under the bridge now.

    image
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    << <i>I wouldn't call it a Fact, since the mintages aren't finalized. It's more of a foregone conclusion. >>




    Agreed, we can all go on and worry about something else ....like if the 2008-w unc plat will be the lowest mintage modern type coin or not.
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,532 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Oh - please, please, please...............will someone please take these 2008-W Unc Plats off my hands................they are so passe' and will never be worth anything..................oh please...............












    Just Kidding.image

    Again.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Are the 2008 W AGE Uncs. going off sale on 12/31? Other threads say this is the case. I thought that they were selling into mid 09. Thanks.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,532 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Are the 2008 W AGE Uncs. going off sale on 12/31? Other threads say this is the case. I thought that they were selling into mid 09. Thanks.

    Raufus, the AGE "W" Uncs are "minted to demand" according to the Mint's own terminology.

    That means that the coins will be sold until they are gone, or until the Mint decides to pull them. In past years, Dec. 31st is not a date of any significance.

    In 2006, the "W" Uncs weren't released until the 2nd half of the year, and even then, they weren't big sellers until along around October, when the "W" Plats started selling out and people realized that they weren't going to be re-supplied. The AGE "W" Uncs didn't sell out until December, but when they did, they went quickly.

    In 2008, we have a situation where they are still "minted to demand" and we know that the Mint pronounced about 2 months ago that they were not buying any more fractional precious metal blanks, because - due to the shortage of metals they were going to focus on 1 oz. coins the rest of the year.

    Now, I may be an idiot, but that seems to tell me that when the "W" Uncs run out, there will be ***instant recognition*** of the fact that these are low mintage coins, last of the "W" series, which when folded into the regular unc issue series will be major keys.

    Don't say that I never told you so. Regards, jmski.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    jmski, I agree with you. I have backed up the truck on this one.
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    Coins101Coins101 Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭
    Stange, I put in a bid earlier today on a 2008 GOLD American Eagle 4 coin PROOF set and just got an email I won it for 1874.99. Boy, I sure didn't think they would be selling for less than issue price with the 1 oz coin being sold-out.
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    RichRRichR Posts: 3,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    <<It is the date, it was compiled on a Tuesday so this weeks numbers took into account the canceled orders from Monday already.>>

    <<I still want to see another couple of weeks on the proof numbers to be sure they are as low as I hope but I still have my 30 day generous return privilege from the mint to use. You should have used that on the 2008 w unc when you had the chance and gotten into the buffaloes and proofs. We begged you but oh well, it is all water under the bridge now.>>


    Now...now...lets not go sniping after 7over8 because I also believe those Unc Plat numbers have yet to be corrected to anything close to reality yet.

    And one major factor playing into his/our court is that rarely, if ever, are Uncs. produced in excess of Proofs for the same issue...really...has this EVER been the case in modern times? So therefore, either the Proof numbers need to go up or the Unc. numbers will be coming down! And I think this is the strongest argument regardless of all the fun with numbers we've all been having courtesy of the Mint's creative bookkeeping.
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    2004 Plat set!!!!!!!!!

    HOLY CARP!!!!!! image
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    nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    2004 Plat set!!!!!!!!!

    HOLY CARP!!!!!!


    price drop to be expected-- and considering the non-existent feedback of the seller, that's really not so bad.
    Dan
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    GritsManGritsMan Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭


    << <i>2004 Plat set!!!!!!!!!

    HOLY CARP!!!!!! image >>



    Yes...KABOOM!
    Winner of the Coveted Devil Award June 8th, 2010
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    I'll pay 10% over for sealed 2008 UNC. plat sets. I'll take up to 25 sets. I don't think I can buy any. What does that mean?
    "There's no free lunch" MF
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    nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    And one major factor playing into his/our court is that rarely, if ever, are Uncs. produced in excess of Proofs for the same issue...really...has this EVER been the case in modern times? So therefore, either the Proof numbers need to go up or the Unc. numbers will be coming down! And I think this is the strongest argument regardless of all the fun with numbers we've all been having courtesy of the Mint's creative bookkeeping.

    Isn't it equally possible that the Mint ran a certain number of uncirculateds and proofs early in the year, with the expectation that they would make more as the year progressed, and then changed course?

    We don't know much here, but we do know that 2008 has been an unusual year; I'm not sure that the historical relationship between proof and uncirculated numbers is required to hold true. It's a logical fallacy to claim that because we've come to expect it, it must happen.

    I've said it numerous times, and I guess I'll say it again. The ONLY relevant question is what the Mint means by "sales."

    If a "sale" is recorded when an order is placed, eventually the numbers will be reduced by the number of open orders that will never be filled.

    If a "sale" is recorded when an order is filled, any drop in sales numbers is limited to the number of coins that are returned.
    Dan
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    **********2004 Plat set!!!!!!!!!

    HOLY CARP!!!!!!

    price drop to be expected-- and considering the non-existent feedback of the seller, that's really not so bad.**********


    Lets not forget it is right before Christmas with rising unemployment, a crashing stock market, falling home prices, constrained credit, falling commodities, a hint of deflation and the worse recession since the 1930s.

    Not a good time to be selling any collectables.......................
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    ebizgobroebizgobro Posts: 595 ✭✭✭
    Regarding the 2004 Platinum Proof Set, it is too bad that the seller didn't know that WonderCoins was buying them for $4,000+.
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    I ordered the night of the frinzy, and they were all shipped yesterday by registered mail. Even the 1/2 oz that was backordered has been shipped.
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    DCWDCW Posts: 7,093 ✭✭✭✭✭
    How do you know they shipped? I never get a good status from the mint webpage. It always says "in process," until I get the coins on my doorstep. The next day, I get a "order has been shipped" update.
    Your coins that were backordered were shipped, too? At what point if at any time, did they go "in stock and reserved?" I've had a 4 coin set, and 2 1/10ths on backorder since the afternoon of the 8th, and they still show "backordered."

    Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
    "Coin collecting for outcasts..."

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    CasmanCasman Posts: 3,935 ✭✭
    Try fedex.com alternate reference tracking, put order number in the box, country and zip, that's the first place that knows when it's on the way...

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