Your posts make absolutely no sense at all.......you know the reason why the numbers on unc-w's are so high - because of excessive orders after backorder started -
that havent been filled......repeat.....havent been filled.
Do you finally get it?
How about those last 900 - 4 coins sets? That's even if you believe that people piled into those in one week to the tune of 900 sets.
Wow, what a surprise, I know of many orders of those not filled as well...............
So, if you'd like to continue to debate the situation, please come prepared with the facts....
A fool's bet would be to think that they short struck plat proofs and didnt short strike unc-w plats...........and if you really feel the unc's are not short struck....get out of the proofs......because those numbers will hyperinflate as well.
I guess you dont have any of these (along with Coinboy) and will feel left out when they run..........
as much as any coin can run in this tough economy.....
I'm part of the reason the 1/4's Uncs went backwards....my Returns and FloridaBill's, no doubt!
I'm telling you, the new Mint Vendor has installed a NEW point of sale purchase/return system. This is not the PSWeb Vendor's old sales system of the 2006 W Unc's Days.
Remember, the Proof Platinum takes about 2-3 more hits of the die than the Burnished, so you get less coins per die on the Proofs. If you used the same number of Dies per series, you will ALWAYS end up with less Proof Coins than you would Uncs. That's just physics.
Dump those Uncs, 7/8 and this pump you have going or those coins will take you under the water.
The bs about the POS system and vendor stuff has no bearing on what happened with the plat unc's.
There are many assumptions, but a new point of sale system and vendor doesnt explain why orders exceeded actual stock by hundreds if now 1000+ coins for some options, that, my friend, is a "user" setting...........
the most logical explanation being that orders were taken on many of the unc-w product offerings that FAR outstripped actual coins available, to ensure ample orders were available for possible returns.......it got way out of hand, and now we are seeing the reversion of those numbers (through hundreds of cancelled orders) that will continue until they reach much lower totals.
Who said the same amount of dies were used? Just how do you know this? Dreaming? Get a cup of coffee and wake up.
The stats from previous years and demand tells us that the USM produced plat proofs in a ratio of 1 to .6 for unc-w's............apply those ratios and see where it leads you......
for you, probably in tears that you returned all those sub-06w 2008-w plat unc's................
post by 7over8 Sunday December 14, 2008 12:41 PM Coinboy -
The bs about the POS system and vendor stuff has no bearing on what happened with the plat unc's.
There are many assumptions, but a new point of sale system and vendor doesnt explain why orders exceeded actual stock by hundreds if now 1000+ coins for some options, that, my friend, is a "user" setting...........
the most logical explanation being that orders were taken on many of the unc-w product offerings that FAR outstripped actual coins available, to ensure ample orders were available for possible returns.......it got way out of hand, and now we are seeing the reversion of those numbers (through hundreds of cancelled orders) that will continue until they reach much lower totals.
Who said the same amount of dies were used? Just how do you know this? Dreaming? Get a cup of coffee and wake up.
The stats from previous years and demand tells us that the USM produced plat proofs in a ratio of 1 to .6 for unc-w's............apply those ratios and see where it leads you......
for you, probably in tears that you returned all those sub-06w 2008-w plat unc's................
Have some faith. Your theory that the Mint sales figures are due for a substantial downward revision could still be correct and all will be well.
Insulting coinboy won't make the numbers fall any faster, patience is all that is required.
Returns and order cancellations are obviously not reflected. I know of 4 people who had a little more than 400 (FOUR HUNDRED!) 4 pcs 2008W Plat UNC sets "backordered". ALL of these orders were recently canceled. The reported sales numbers have not YET been reduced to reflect these. We were not the only ones who were shut out. The numbers for the UNC's will be reduced SUBSTANTIALLY. The question is when and how deeply. I expect the proof sales figures will increase dramatically before being substantially reduced as well. These all will be winners. The question is, how long will it take for them to be big winners.
Most were on the ball with these and I'm sure some larger orders got through...It's not as if everyone waited to the last minute, and then decided on a whim to order 100's....Those may have been additional, but not all those reporting these huge numbers got shut out completely...Why would they?
Your posts make absolutely no sense at all.......you know the reason why the numbers on unc-w's are so high - because of excessive orders after backorder started -
that havent been filled......repeat.....havent been filled.
Do you finally get it?
How about those last 900 - 4 coins sets? That's even if you believe that people piled into those in one week to the tune of 900 sets.
Wow, what a surprise, I know of many orders of those not filled as well...............
So, if you'd like to continue to debate the situation, please come prepared with the facts.... >>
Those I do believe are the facts so this is why I think the 4 coins sets are around 1500. The mint took many more orders past 1257 on the 4 coins sets before it went backorder.
You seem to think it will be 1250 which is LESS that the sales report numbers 4 days prior to backorder.
I just don't think that makes sense and is why I have been consistent here.
The facts seem to say the 4 coin sets are more than 1257 and less than 2165.
You say it is less than both?
From everything reported it seems 1500 is a better possibility.
Better and more logical.
PS The mint did take down the products for one day due to repricing but that isn't enough to change the outcome IMO.
I think half strikes logic is sound. I also think the 4 pc set will be around 1500. It could go lower due to returns that are melted (which were marked as damaged on the return form). I'm expecting a final NET mintage number between the 1250 and 1500 for the set. I'm PREDICTING that the NET mintage numbers come in a little lower than the 06's which are remarkably small to begin with. In the future the mint will be marketing less items and those coins that they continue to sell will will sell in much larger numbers, making these very special coins.
I know of 4 people who had a little more than 400 (FOUR HUNDRED!) 4 pcs 2008W Plat UNC sets "backordered". ALL of these orders were recently canceled. The reported sales numbers have not YET been reduced to reflect these. We were not the only ones who were shut out. The numbers for the UNC's will be reduced SUBSTANTIALLY.
Ummmmm, do you happen to know when those orders for 400 sets were placed?
After reviewing the recent posts, it seems to me that the point 7over8 is making is that as early as Oct. 21st, the Unc sets were out of stock, since orders placed on Oct. 22nd have now been cancelled. This might well render the sales total of 1257 sets on Nov. 9th to be suspect.
I believe that the point 7over8 is making is that if the 1257 total sets on Nov. 9th were suspect, so is the Nov. 13th date on which they went backorder.
So, how many sets were reported sold as of Oct. 21st? Maybe 900? Even if that were the case, there's alot of backing-out from the current numbers to do before we get to sub-2006 numbers on the Uncs. I'm of a mind that nycounsel is right - patience is what's required for now.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
7/8, you are free to keep espousing that convoluted, cocrkamamie theory of how ONLY the 2008 W Unc Platinum have screwed up sales numbers while the other 6-7 Series reporting Sales are normal. I am sure someone will drink your Kool-Aid. In the mean-time, I'll pass on the fantasy you have brewed.
_________________
I've put my money on the Buffs and the Plat Proofs and the facts. For the Plat Proofs, not much thinking is needed, The 2008 W Proof Sales Numbers speak for themselves. These Coins don't need a contrived story on how the final numbers got there, they have a larger Collecting Base, they have a Longer Series Span, they are a Better looking Coin than the Uncs, and they sold out quicker.
The 2008 W Uncs just missed and the 2006 W Uncs are still King.
The 2008 W Proofs are not only the Kings they are the Gods....
BTW: I believe I said: If you used the same number of Dies per series, you will ALWAYS end up with less Proof Coins than you would Uncs. That's just physics.
I hope you are right about the platinum proofs. We need another sales report before we get too excited I believe. They might end up with the same confusion that the unc. have hanging over them.
Hi,I hope you are right coinboy.I been selling all my 08 plat unc for pennies on ebay after fees.I am keeping 2 sets of them and still have 12 1/4 oz left.Probaly keep them depending on next weeks #s.I did buy alot of proof plats and and a bunch of buffalo's.I think they will be the winners.Hopefully the gold eagles take a while before they go crazy,I'm tapped out already.Laters
I'm thinking the gold eagle uncs may have been minted in greater numbers than we'd hope. Maybe 10K for the half-ouncers, for instance? I hope not, but I would think there's been a run on them since the plats and buffs went dark, yet the gold eagles still aren't showing any red. I do still think they will be the kings of unc w gold, though. And given that, it'll be very interesting how they place with the 1991 half. Because really, these gold unc-ws are, IMO, must-haves for anyone collecting the regular unc gold eagles.
It is so much fun contradicting Coinboy....I haven't had my fill since late 06 when I was correct on the 1oz unc production......
As for the die comment.......Coinboy infers in his post that somehow less plat proofs were produced because they take three strikes per die and they naturally have a shorter die life.....
Well, since he is inferring the plat proofs are minted in much lower numbers than the unc's, he is by default inferring that he knows how many dies were utilized in both instances - which is another bunch of bs......
He's just another pesty guy who shows up every once in a while to rattle cages. I'm sure all in good fun.
So, i'll refrain from directly posting my rebuttals to his comments, and only comment once we know that the plat unc's are the undisputed kings of the unc-w series.
The Oct 21 backorder date is for the 1/4 oz uncs, the 4 coin sets went backorder a few weeks later Nov 13
As for 4 coin sets -
Oct 26 - 1053 Nov 2 - 1191 Nov 9 - 1257 Nov 16 - 2165 (no change since then)
The increase in four coin sets over the period above on an average weekly basis (excluding the last week which is blatently incorrect) is 102 sets, dramatically tailing off between Nov 2 and Nov 9.....(+138 then +66)
Returns of sets purchased initially around Oct 17 would start to roll in around the week ending Nov 14 to ensure they were rec'd within 30 days.
This means that even if we increased 102 more sets beyond the 1257 of Nov 9th, returns would have ate up that number during the week ending Nov 14- therefore I am sticking with my call (my opinion) of 1250 sets available. If the plat proofs end up with 2000 sets, 1250 sets sits nicely inline with previous year proportions of plat proof to plat unc set availability of ~1 to .6.
The 900 sets sales recorded after Nov 9th is absolutely insane, many have already been cancelled. However, the number has not been revised as of yet.
So, i'll refrain from directly posting my rebuttals to his comments
To rebut, you must meet the requirement of intellectual honesty, to which you are sorely lacking on this issue.
I am sure it is that mother-load of US Mint Packages full of UNC Platinum that is stacked behind you that is working like Kryptonite against your better judgment and causing you to post the pap.
All will be forgiven in about a 4 days when the Stats post again. You better get to sellin’
however, along with that i dont know how much upside can be had in a sour economy.... (i think NYC said this best many posts ago, to give him the credit)
1. The weekly sale report is orders not coins. 2. The weekly sales report racks up as coins are ordered and reduced as they are returned. 3. Canceled orders are not reduced from the report until the books are rectified. 4. We know that 300+ quarter orders were canceled. 5 If BNB is telling the truth 400 4 coin sets are dead back orders that were placed in the time period the 900 extra sets came onto the report.
so unless the people I know and the guys on this board are a bunch of liars 1800-300=1500 or less that we know of 2100-400=1700 or less that we know of
Now I love the plats and follow them as closely as anyone I know, but its not clear to me that the 2008-w is going to come in higher than the 2006-w issues at this point. The problem is even if the 2008-w plats come in at the back order point number of 2300 coins (and that is the best case as far as I can tell) they are only 200 coin under 2006-w. This is not a overpowering mintage relationship by any stretch of the imagination and the larger denomination 2007-w unc w plats got such bad treatment last year its not clear that the ms-69 grade large denomination kings will not be a 2007-w in ten years. We could end up with 3 crazy rare issues with no key and that is a problem!
I do think the proofs are a safer bet than the unc-w coins are because their collector base is clearly superior and the 2008 proofs are almost certain to beat the socks off 2004. Guys if the 2008-w proofs come in under 3999 coins and the tenths under 5,999 when its all said and done they are going to be something to behold when the economy recovers.
You all realize that the 2008 Plat Unc. vs. Proof argument will also be largely moot once the dollar crashes and gold and plat coins skyrocket far above their underlying numismatic values...
Me thinks that will happen in about 2-3 years when inflation is running at 7-8% annually!
PS...have you also noticed the recent creation of a new word in the lexicon...reflation...excuse me, do you mean INFLATION?!?
And yes, that's very bad for people who actually have money in a bank!
Oct 26 - 1053 Nov 2 - 1191 Nov 9 - 1257 Nov 16 - 2165 (no change since then)
The increase in four coin sets over the period above on an average weekly basis (excluding the last week which is blatently incorrect) is 102 sets, dramatically tailing off between Nov 2 and Nov 9.....(+138 then +66)
>>
7/8 you can believe whatever you want to believe, I am happy if you think there are 1250 4 coins sets. But using sales averages to calculate how many 4 coin sets there are is completely meaningless.
Sales averages are just that, sales averages. Not averages in the last week of sales when people have reported orders FAR IN EXCESS OF AVERAGES.
Anyway good luck to you on what you hope the mintages are, these unc w coins are probably going to be weak kings one way or the other it appears.
The proofs will probably be strong kings.
I own more proof than UNC, we will see if I was right.
PS I am finished debating the numbers here which should make everyone happy. You lost.
Where are the newer numbers coming from on page 155 of this thread. I know they say NN and they got on Saturday. We never have had newer numbers on Saturday. They show the unc. 1/4 oz plat going up over 4000. (Any thoughts on how this happens) They also show the 1 oz. Proof platinums being revised down. (Now that is interesting) Any one else get these numbers.
The sales report is posted every Tuesday for the previous Sunday or Monday. This has been the case for the last five years at least. Right now its posted every Tuesday right here almost as soon as it rolls out of the mints system because its important to us.
Now if a blog comes out with "new" numbers as of a Saturday what conclusions should one draw?
1. The weekly sale report is orders not coins. 2. The weekly sales report racks up as coins are ordered and reduced as they are returned. 3. Canceled orders are not reduced from the report until the books are rectified. 4. We know that 300+ quarter orders were canceled. 5 If B4B is telling the truth 400 4 coin sets are dead back orders that were placed in the time period the 900 extra sets came onto the report.
so unless the people I know and the guys on this board are a bunch of liars 1800-300=1500 or less that we know of 2100-400=1700 or less that we know of
Now I love the plats and follow them as closely as anyone I know, but its not clear to me that the 2008-w is going to come in higher than the 2006-w issues at this point. The problem is even if the 2008-w plats come in at the back order point number of 2300 coins (and that is the best case as far as I can tell) they are only 200 coin under 2006-w. This is not a overpowering mintage relationship by any stretch of the imagination and the larger denomination 2007-w unc w plats got such bad treatment last year its not clear that the ms-69 grade large denomination kings will not be a 2007-w in ten years. We could end up with 3 crazy rare issues with no key and that is a problem!
I do think the proofs are a safer bet than the unc-w coins are because their collector base is clearly superior and the 2008 proofs are almost certain to beat the socks off 2004. Guys if the 2008-w proofs come in under 3999 coins and the tenths under 5,999 when its all said and done they are going to be something to behold when the economy recovers.
Ericj96 >>
It is about time you made a reply!
I have been watching this debate and adding to it from time to time to get people to think. The mint took a long time to pull off the proof 4-coin sets after all the others went.... "Product is not Available" ...after the panic buying....hmmmm....I am anticipating huge numbers on that sales report which is really going to throw a kink in things. If not....then I will be pleasantly surprised.
As most proof collectors all know, once that sales report comes out they may not revise it for over 2 years...long time to speculate if you ask me. At that point I will personally return the excess and keep what I like for my collection playing it smart. It is best to keep all emotion and dollar signs out of it....so you still have plenty of money to play again in the near future.
It is best to think through your decisions...do not feel through your decisions....then stand behind your decision. That is how I made a fortune on precious metals. I am just dabbling in coin collecting...couple dollars here and there.
Oct 26 - 1053 Nov 2 - 1191 Nov 9 - 1257 Nov 16 - 2165 (no change since then)
The increase in four coin sets over the period above on an average weekly basis (excluding the last week which is blatently incorrect) is 102 sets, dramatically tailing off between Nov 2 and Nov 9.....(+138 then +66)
New conspiracy theory. Look at the range on the 4-coin. I think the Mint purposely did this superficial entry to throw us off and send back our coins so that Moy and Co. can purchase these. Moy may be out of a job and he needs a little boost when he leaves the Mint. Since he has put a little "classic" back into moderns he wants to bene a little bit. I may be off a little but that's my theory. Ren
I have been watching this debate and adding to it from time to time to get people to think. The mint took a long time to pull off the proof 4-coin sets after all the others went.... "Product is not Available" ...after the panic buying....hmmmm....I am anticipating huge numbers on that sales report which is really going to throw a kink in things. If not....then I will be pleasantly surprised.
As most proof collectors all know, once that sales report comes out they may not revise it for over 2 years...long time to speculate if you ask me. At that point I will personally return the excess and keep what I like for my collection playing it smart. It is best to keep all emotion and dollar signs out of it....so you still have plenty of money to play again in the near future.
It is best to think through your decisions...do not feel through your decisions....then stand behind your decision. That is how I made a fortune on precious metals. I am just dabbling in coin collecting...couple dollars here and there. >>
Good points groht5. If you can hang on to them there is no need to sell right away. 2008-W's of all flavors will probably do well when seasoned. Some, like the Buffs, are no brainers. The Plats are debate-able. I think both Plat are great holders. This is something one looks back on 5-7 years and go, why did I send those back? I'm holding onto my 08W's for a long time.
Thanks Eric - quoting you - the following is a portion of one of your most intuitive posts to date:
" its not clear to me that the 2008-w is going to come in higher than the 2006-w issues at this point. The problem is even if the 2008-w plats come in at the back order point number of 2300 coins (and that is the best case as far as I can tell) they are only 200 coin under 2006-w. This is not a overpowering mintage relationship "
Evident that there is no particular reason, other than the I wanna be right posts, to continue to crunch these numbers.
Most posters are saying the buffs are a "no brainer." What is the rationale for investing in the buffs? It's not so obvious to me...what makes them better than the plats? Is there one buff that is King?
In the interest of full disclosure, I guess that I should mention that I'm somewhat biased. I like the buff nickels and see the buff gold as a "Franklin Mint" style reproduction!
<< <i>Most posters are saying the buffs are a "no brainer." What is the rationale for investing in the buffs? It's not so obvious to me...what makes them better than the plats? Is there one buff that is King?
Please educate me. Thanks >>
1 year only, low mintage, affordable, fractional, classic design, established collector base, and Gold to boot....
Again, look at the silver Buffs from 2001 to get an idea of the popularity of the design. For those that can afford it now, you gotta have a gold one or two for your set. For those that can't afford it now, just wait until they can...
Most posters are saying the buffs are a "no brainer." What is the rationale for investing in the buffs? It's not so obvious to me...what makes them better than the plats? Is there one buff that is King?
Please educate me. Thanks
If you see one in-hand, you'll know what is causing the commotion. I don't know if you can call them "better" than the Plats, because that depends on your criteria for "better".
Aesthetically, I think that the Gold Buffs are a Knockout. I hadn't seen one before this year.
Investment-wise, I can't imagine them not gaining traction. The mintages are what I consider to be in the "sweet spot" - enough to be promotable, few enough to be scarce.
It's quite possible that the King will be the 1 oz. "W" Unc. It currently shows a total of 9,699 which places it lower than any other Modern Gold Bullion piece, including the Reverse Proof AGE.
Since the 1 oz. Bullion Gold Buffs will continue in Regular Issue and Proof form, and the fractionals are a one-year only phenomenon, the 1 oz. coin will be essential for collectors in both directions - as a one-year type set, and as the key in a continuing series. That's significant.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
What about the AGE? Did everyone shoot their wad on the plats and buffs? I can figure out why they are not moving. The mintages seems to be really low and yet they just sit there. This seems really strange.
Did everyone shoot their wad on the plats and buffs?
I think that's possible. There have been too many "can't miss" opportunities this year.
First it was the uncirculated platinums. Then the gold buffalos. Then the platinum proofs.
There's only so much money out there, and I think at this point we're seeing people exhausted from all these opportunities. It would help if we saw a lot of action on the secondary market, but nothing has really caught fire as of yet.
<< <i>Most posters are saying the buffs are a "no brainer." What is the rationale for investing in the buffs? It's not so obvious to me...what makes them better than the plats? Is there one buff that is King?
Please educate me. Thanks >>
Take everything you read here with a grain of salt. The same thing was said about the Jefferson First Spouse coins.
Comments
Your posts make absolutely no sense at all.......you know the reason why the numbers on unc-w's are so high - because of excessive orders after backorder started -
that havent been filled......repeat.....havent been filled.
Do you finally get it?
How about those last 900 - 4 coins sets? That's even if you believe that people piled into those in one week to the tune of 900 sets.
Wow, what a surprise, I know of many orders of those not filled as well...............
So, if you'd like to continue to debate the situation, please come prepared with the facts....
A fool's bet would be to think that they short struck plat proofs and didnt short strike unc-w plats...........and if you really feel the unc's are not short struck....get out of the proofs......because those numbers will hyperinflate as well.
I guess you dont have any of these (along with Coinboy) and will feel left out when they run..........
as much as any coin can run in this tough economy.....
I'm telling you, the new Mint Vendor has installed a NEW point of sale purchase/return system. This is not the PSWeb Vendor's old sales system of the 2006 W Unc's Days.
Remember, the Proof Platinum takes about 2-3 more hits of the die than the Burnished, so you get less coins per die on the Proofs. If you used the same number of Dies per series, you will ALWAYS end up with less Proof Coins than you would Uncs. That's just physics.
Dump those Uncs, 7/8 and this pump you have going or those coins will take you under the water.
The bs about the POS system and vendor stuff has no bearing on what happened with the plat unc's.
There are many assumptions, but a new point of sale system and vendor doesnt explain why orders exceeded actual stock by hundreds if now 1000+ coins for some options, that, my friend, is a "user" setting...........
the most logical explanation being that orders were taken on many of the unc-w product offerings that FAR outstripped actual coins available, to ensure ample orders were available for possible returns.......it got way out of hand, and now we are seeing the reversion of those numbers (through hundreds of cancelled orders) that will continue until they reach much lower totals.
Who said the same amount of dies were used? Just how do you know this? Dreaming? Get a cup of coffee and wake up.
The stats from previous years and demand tells us that the USM produced plat proofs in a ratio of 1 to .6 for unc-w's............apply those ratios and see where it leads you......
for you, probably in tears that you returned all those sub-06w 2008-w plat unc's................
Coinboy -
The bs about the POS system and vendor stuff has no bearing on what happened with the plat unc's.
There are many assumptions, but a new point of sale system and vendor doesnt explain why orders exceeded actual stock by hundreds if now 1000+ coins for some options, that, my friend, is a "user" setting...........
the most logical explanation being that orders were taken on many of the unc-w product offerings that FAR outstripped actual coins available, to ensure ample orders were available for possible returns.......it got way out of hand, and now we are seeing the reversion of those numbers (through hundreds of cancelled orders) that will continue until they reach much lower totals.
Who said the same amount of dies were used? Just how do you know this? Dreaming? Get a cup of coffee and wake up.
The stats from previous years and demand tells us that the USM produced plat proofs in a ratio of 1 to .6 for unc-w's............apply those ratios and see where it leads you......
for you, probably in tears that you returned all those sub-06w 2008-w plat unc's................
Have some faith. Your theory that the Mint sales figures are due for a substantial downward revision could still be correct and all will be well.
Insulting coinboy won't make the numbers fall any faster, patience is all that is required.
<< <i>Half -
Your posts make absolutely no sense at all.......you know the reason why the numbers on unc-w's are so high - because of excessive orders after backorder started -
that havent been filled......repeat.....havent been filled.
Do you finally get it?
How about those last 900 - 4 coins sets? That's even if you believe that people piled into those in one week to the tune of 900 sets.
Wow, what a surprise, I know of many orders of those not filled as well...............
So, if you'd like to continue to debate the situation, please come prepared with the facts....
>>
Here are some facts.
Nov. 9 sales 4 coin sets 1257
Nov. 13 4 coin sets go backorder
Nov. 16 sales 4 coin sets 2165
Nov. 18 4 coin sets go unavailable
Those I do believe are the facts so this is why I think the 4 coins sets are around 1500. The mint took many more orders past 1257 on the 4 coins sets before it went backorder.
You seem to think it will be 1250 which is LESS that the sales report numbers 4 days prior to backorder.
I just don't think that makes sense and is why I have been consistent here.
The facts seem to say the 4 coin sets are more than 1257 and less than 2165.
You say it is less than both?
From everything reported it seems 1500 is a better possibility.
Better and more logical.
PS The mint did take down the products for one day due to repricing but that isn't enough to change the outcome IMO.
Ummmmm, do you happen to know when those orders for 400 sets were placed?
After reviewing the recent posts, it seems to me that the point 7over8 is making is that as early as Oct. 21st, the Unc sets were out of stock, since orders placed on Oct. 22nd have now been cancelled. This might well render the sales total of 1257 sets on Nov. 9th to be suspect.
I believe that the point 7over8 is making is that if the 1257 total sets on Nov. 9th were suspect, so is the Nov. 13th date on which they went backorder.
So, how many sets were reported sold as of Oct. 21st? Maybe 900? Even if that were the case, there's alot of backing-out from the current numbers to do before we get to sub-2006 numbers on the Uncs. I'm of a mind that nycounsel is right - patience is what's required for now.
I knew it would happen.
_________________
I've put my money on the Buffs and the Plat Proofs and the facts. For the Plat Proofs, not much thinking is needed, The 2008 W Proof Sales Numbers speak for themselves. These Coins don't need a contrived story on how the final numbers got there, they have a larger Collecting Base, they have a Longer Series Span, they are a Better looking Coin than the Uncs, and they sold out quicker.
The 2008 W Uncs just missed and the 2006 W Uncs are still King.
The 2008 W Proofs are not only the Kings they are the Gods....
BTW: I believe I said: If you used the same number of Dies per series, you will ALWAYS end up with less Proof Coins than you would Uncs. That's just physics.
That is different from using the SAME dies.
Yeah well, that's a no-brainer!!
they (proofs) have a larger Collecting Base
true!
they have a Longer Series Span
true!
they are a Better looking Coin than the Uncs
true!
and they sold out quicker.
they did? are you sure about that? I don't think so.
The 2008 W Uncs just missed and the 2006 W Uncs are still King
I don't know about that, Coinboy. And neither do you, yet.
The 2008 W Proofs are not only the Kings they are the Gods....
The numbers do look good at the moment, but I think we'd be smart to wait a bit on that pronouncement.
(Don't look now, but the AGEs are extremely low mintages as well. I wonder how short that run was?)
I knew it would happen.
As for the die comment.......Coinboy infers in his post that somehow less plat proofs were produced because they take three strikes per die and they naturally have a shorter die life.....
Well, since he is inferring the plat proofs are minted in much lower numbers than the unc's, he is by default inferring that he knows how many dies were utilized in both instances - which is another bunch of bs......
He's just another pesty guy who shows up every once in a while to rattle cages. I'm sure all in good fun.
So, i'll refrain from directly posting my rebuttals to his comments, and only comment once we know that the plat unc's are the undisputed kings of the unc-w series.
The Oct 21 backorder date is for the 1/4 oz uncs, the 4 coin sets went backorder a few weeks later Nov 13
As for 4 coin sets -
Oct 26 - 1053
Nov 2 - 1191
Nov 9 - 1257
Nov 16 - 2165 (no change since then)
The increase in four coin sets over the period above on an average weekly basis (excluding the last week which is blatently incorrect) is 102 sets, dramatically tailing off between Nov 2 and Nov 9.....(+138 then +66)
Returns of sets purchased initially around Oct 17 would start to roll in around the week ending Nov 14 to ensure they were rec'd within 30 days.
This means that even if we increased 102 more sets beyond the 1257 of Nov 9th, returns would have ate up that number during the week ending Nov 14- therefore I am sticking with my call (my opinion) of 1250 sets available. If the plat proofs end up with 2000 sets, 1250 sets sits nicely inline with previous year proportions of plat proof to plat unc set availability of ~1 to .6.
The 900 sets sales recorded after Nov 9th is absolutely insane, many have already been cancelled. However, the number has not been revised as of yet.
A Burnished takes 3-4.
Platinum is the hardest metal to strike.
This information was on the Discovery Channel show, "Mysteries of the Mint" showing Platinum Coins being struck.
Only you make stuff up, 7/8, not me.
To rebut, you must meet the requirement of intellectual honesty, to which you are sorely lacking on this issue.
I am sure it is that mother-load of US Mint Packages full of UNC Platinum that is stacked behind you that is working like Kryptonite against your better judgment and causing you to post the pap.
All will be forgiven in about a 4 days when the Stats post again. You better get to sellin’
Maybe the member will go away and hibernate, like pesty gnats hovering around your head
just like the time when they were proven wrong in 06.......its amazing what short memories they have
I knew it would happen.
Frankly, it's hard to pick a loser this year. But that's how I felt in 2006 when I bought way too many 1/2 oz. AGE "W" Uncs. (I still have them.)
I knew it would happen.
08-w plat uncs will be sub-06w
however, along with that i dont know how much upside can be had in a sour economy.... (i think NYC said this best many posts ago, to give him the credit)
1. The weekly sale report is orders not coins.
2. The weekly sales report racks up as coins are ordered and reduced as they are returned.
3. Canceled orders are not reduced from the report until the books are rectified.
4. We know that 300+ quarter orders were canceled.
5 If BNB is telling the truth 400 4 coin sets are dead back orders that were placed in the time period the 900 extra sets came onto the report.
so unless the people I know and the guys on this board are a bunch of liars
1800-300=1500 or less that we know of
2100-400=1700 or less that we know of
Now I love the plats and follow them as closely as anyone I know, but its not clear to me that the 2008-w is going to come in higher than the 2006-w issues at this point. The problem is even if the 2008-w plats come in at the back order point number of 2300 coins (and that is the best case as far as I can tell) they are only 200 coin under 2006-w. This is not a overpowering mintage relationship by any stretch of the imagination and the larger denomination 2007-w unc w plats got such bad treatment last year its not clear that the ms-69 grade large denomination kings will not be a 2007-w in ten years. We could end up with 3 crazy rare issues with no key and that is a problem!
I do think the proofs are a safer bet than the unc-w coins are because their collector base is clearly superior and the 2008 proofs are almost certain to beat the socks off 2004. Guys if the 2008-w proofs come in under 3999 coins and the tenths under 5,999 when its all said and done they are going to be something to behold when the economy recovers.
Ericj96
Me thinks that will happen in about 2-3 years when inflation is running at 7-8% annually!
PS...have you also noticed the recent creation of a new word in the lexicon...reflation...excuse me, do you mean INFLATION?!?
And yes, that's very bad for people who actually have money in a bank!
<< <i>
As for 4 coin sets -
Oct 26 - 1053
Nov 2 - 1191
Nov 9 - 1257
Nov 16 - 2165 (no change since then)
The increase in four coin sets over the period above on an average weekly basis (excluding the last week which is blatently incorrect) is 102 sets, dramatically tailing off between Nov 2 and Nov 9.....(+138 then +66)
>>
7/8 you can believe whatever you want to believe, I am happy if you think there are 1250 4 coins sets. But using sales averages to calculate how many 4 coin sets there are is completely meaningless.
Sales averages are just that, sales averages. Not averages in the last week of sales when people have reported orders FAR IN EXCESS OF AVERAGES.
Anyway good luck to you on what you hope the mintages are, these unc w coins are probably going to be weak kings one way or the other it appears.
The proofs will probably be strong kings.
I own more proof than UNC, we will see if I was right.
PS I am finished debating the numbers here which should make everyone happy. You lost.
Huh?
Another great use of adjectives Half......you are the self proclaimed winner and the crowd proclaimer loser....
A king is a king whether it is by 1 or 100 coins, the market will price it accordingly......
All that is needed is a good promotion, that could do more good than any perceived demand could........
Now if a blog comes out with "new" numbers as of a Saturday what conclusions should one draw?
<< <i>WE KNOW:
1. The weekly sale report is orders not coins.
2. The weekly sales report racks up as coins are ordered and reduced as they are returned.
3. Canceled orders are not reduced from the report until the books are rectified.
4. We know that 300+ quarter orders were canceled.
5 If B4B is telling the truth 400 4 coin sets are dead back orders that were placed in the time period the 900 extra sets came onto the report.
so unless the people I know and the guys on this board are a bunch of liars
1800-300=1500 or less that we know of
2100-400=1700 or less that we know of
Now I love the plats and follow them as closely as anyone I know, but its not clear to me that the 2008-w is going to come in higher than the 2006-w issues at this point. The problem is even if the 2008-w plats come in at the back order point number of 2300 coins (and that is the best case as far as I can tell) they are only 200 coin under 2006-w. This is not a overpowering mintage relationship by any stretch of the imagination and the larger denomination 2007-w unc w plats got such bad treatment last year its not clear that the ms-69 grade large denomination kings will not be a 2007-w in ten years. We could end up with 3 crazy rare issues with no key and that is a problem!
I do think the proofs are a safer bet than the unc-w coins are because their collector base is clearly superior and the 2008 proofs are almost certain to beat the socks off 2004. Guys if the 2008-w proofs come in under 3999 coins and the tenths under 5,999 when its all said and done they are going to be something to behold when the economy recovers.
Ericj96 >>
It is about time you made a reply!
I have been watching this debate and adding to it from time to time to get people to think. The mint took a long time to pull off the proof 4-coin sets after all the others went.... "Product is not Available" ...after the panic buying....hmmmm....I am anticipating huge numbers on that sales report which is really going to throw a kink in things. If not....then I will be pleasantly surprised.
As most proof collectors all know, once that sales report comes out they may not revise it for over 2 years...long time to speculate if you ask me. At that point I will personally return the excess and keep what I like for my collection playing it smart. It is best to keep all emotion and dollar signs out of it....so you still have plenty of money to play again in the near future.
It is best to think through your decisions...do not feel through your decisions....then stand behind your decision. That is how I made a fortune on precious metals. I am just dabbling in coin collecting...couple dollars here and there.
<< <i>
<< <i>
As for 4 coin sets -
Oct 26 - 1053
Nov 2 - 1191
Nov 9 - 1257
Nov 16 - 2165 (no change since then)
The increase in four coin sets over the period above on an average weekly basis (excluding the last week which is blatently incorrect) is 102 sets, dramatically tailing off between Nov 2 and Nov 9.....(+138 then +66)
New conspiracy theory. Look at the range on the 4-coin. I think the Mint purposely did this superficial entry to throw us off and send back our coins so that Moy and Co. can purchase these. Moy may be out of a job and he needs a little boost when he leaves the Mint. Since he has put a little "classic" back into moderns he wants to bene a little bit. I may be off a little but that's my theory.
Ren
Ericj96 >>
It is about time you made a reply!
I have been watching this debate and adding to it from time to time to get people to think. The mint took a long time to pull off the proof 4-coin sets after all the others went.... "Product is not Available" ...after the panic buying....hmmmm....I am anticipating huge numbers on that sales report which is really going to throw a kink in things. If not....then I will be pleasantly surprised.
As most proof collectors all know, once that sales report comes out they may not revise it for over 2 years...long time to speculate if you ask me. At that point I will personally return the excess and keep what I like for my collection playing it smart. It is best to keep all emotion and dollar signs out of it....so you still have plenty of money to play again in the near future.
It is best to think through your decisions...do not feel through your decisions....then stand behind your decision. That is how I made a fortune on precious metals. I am just dabbling in coin collecting...couple dollars here and there.
Good points groht5. If you can hang on to them there is no need to sell right away. 2008-W's of all flavors will probably do well when seasoned. Some, like the Buffs, are no brainers. The Plats are debate-able. I think both Plat are great holders. This is something one looks back on 5-7 years and go, why did I send those back? I'm holding onto my 08W's for a long time.
Ren
Thanks Eric - quoting you - the following is a portion of one of your most intuitive posts to date:
" its not clear to me that the 2008-w is going to come in higher than the 2006-w issues at this point. The problem is even if the 2008-w plats come in at the back order point number of 2300 coins (and that is the best case as far as I can tell) they are only 200 coin under 2006-w. This is not a overpowering mintage relationship "
Evident that there is no particular reason, other than the I wanna be right posts, to continue to crunch these numbers.
Sounds optimistic to me. (Or did you accidentally place a dash in your inflation estimate?)
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Otherwise, this would be the most boring place on the face of the earth
Please educate me. Thanks
<< <i>Most posters are saying the buffs are a "no brainer." What is the rationale for investing in the buffs? It's not so obvious to me...what makes them better than the plats? Is there one buff that is King?
Please educate me. Thanks >>
1 year only, low mintage, affordable, fractional, classic design, established collector base, and Gold to boot....
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
Please educate me. Thanks
If you see one in-hand, you'll know what is causing the commotion. I don't know if you can call them "better" than the Plats, because that depends on your criteria for "better".
Aesthetically, I think that the Gold Buffs are a Knockout. I hadn't seen one before this year.
Investment-wise, I can't imagine them not gaining traction. The mintages are what I consider to be in the "sweet spot" - enough to be promotable, few enough to be scarce.
It's quite possible that the King will be the 1 oz. "W" Unc. It currently shows a total of 9,699 which places it lower than any other Modern Gold Bullion piece, including the Reverse Proof AGE.
Since the 1 oz. Bullion Gold Buffs will continue in Regular Issue and Proof form, and the fractionals are a one-year only phenomenon, the 1 oz. coin will be essential for collectors in both directions - as a one-year type set, and as the key in a continuing series. That's significant.
I knew it would happen.
I think that's possible. There have been too many "can't miss" opportunities this year.
First it was the uncirculated platinums. Then the gold buffalos. Then the platinum proofs.
There's only so much money out there, and I think at this point we're seeing people exhausted from all these opportunities. It would help if we saw a lot of action on the secondary market, but nothing has really caught fire as of yet.
<< <i>Most posters are saying the buffs are a "no brainer." What is the rationale for investing in the buffs? It's not so obvious to me...what makes them better than the plats? Is there one buff that is King?
Please educate me. Thanks >>
Take everything you read here with a grain of salt. The same thing was said about the Jefferson First Spouse coins.
That's certainly good advice.
For instance, a comment comparing the Buffalos to the Jefferson First Spouse coins should be taken with a grain of salt.