Did you see Goldbully's post that all the 2008 Eagle Commemoratives have gone dark??? I find that astonishing. I mean, I haven't even checked them for months, but it's a new area ripe for discussion/speculation/hyping/dissing etc... >>
It was planned for months GritsMan....see below Mint PR
Last Chance to Order Bald Eagle Commemorative Coins
Dec. 12 Set as Deadline to Order Coins Honoring Recovery of Our National Emblem
WASHINGTON - Time is running out to order Bald Eagle Commemorative Coins. The United States Mint announced today that it will stop sales of the coins struck to celebrate the recovery of our national emblem, the American Bald Eagle, on Dec. 12, 2008, at 5 p.m. (ET). Surcharges collected from the sale of these coins are authorized to be paid to the American Eagle Foundation of Tennessee to further its work.
Bald Eagle Commemorative Coin options still available include proof and uncirculated versions of a gold coin with a denomination of $5, a silver dollar coin and a half-dollar clad coin. A Coin and Medal Set, featuring an uncirculated Bald Eagle Silver Dollar and a bronze Bald Eagle Medal from the National Wildlife Refuge System Centennial Medal Series, also is available. Individual coin options include a Certificate of Authenticity.
The Bald Eagle Proof Silver Dollar Coin also will be available in the 2008 United States Mint American Legacy Collection®, one of the star attractions in the United States Mint's Gift Catalog scheduled for release in late October.
The maximum mintage for all Bald Eagle Commemorative Coin options, including sets, is limited to 100,000 $5 gold coins, 500,000 silver dollar coins and 750,000 clad half-dollars. There is no order limit on these options.
Itemized pricing information for the Bald Eagle Commemorative Coins is as follows:
Option Price Proof $5 Gold Coin (EA1) $319.95 Uncirculated $5 Gold Coin (EA2) $309.95 Proof Silver Dollar (EA3) $43.95 Uncirculated Silver Dollar (EA4) $37.95 Proof Clad Half-Dollar (EA5) $10.95 Uncirculated Clad Half-Dollar (EA6) $8.95 Coin and Medal Set (EA6) $44.95 American Legacy Collection (AL2) $100.00
To make the Bald Eagle Commemorative Coin options part of your coin collection, visit the United States Mint's secure Web site at www.usmint.gov, or call the toll-free number, 1-800-USA-MINT (872-6468). Hearing- and speech-impaired customers with TTY equipment may place their orders by calling 1-888-321-MINT (6468) from 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. (ET), Monday through Friday.
Customers paying by credit card should ensure that their information remains current to avoid order processing delays. Orders made with credit cards that expire before the products are shipped will be cancelled. After an order has been placed, customers may update credit card information at 1-800-USA-MINT (872-6468).
<< <i>These did not even come close to maximum mintages. For the $5 gold, something in the neighborhood of 33,000 proofs and 14,000 uncs.
In the past, I'd say the uncs would be worth watching, but in this climate, I don't think so--not for a long while. Too many OTHER low mintage issues that make this one seem high--and a dwindling demand due to the economy. Still, I'm glad I got one. >>
This is why I ordered 20 of the UNC Silver Dollars last week.
<< <i>The market already knows that the 2006-W Unc plats are going to be supplanted by the 2008s. I just picked up a $50 2006-W MS69 for $567 on the bay >>
I was watching that coin and I was thinking it would sell for at least $700
IMO, ANY platinum issues which are sub 4,000 mintage and can be purchased at $1100-$1200/oz level WILL be one of the smartest purchases made......
$800 /oz platinum will not last for long. Demand will not always be this low. Tree huggers are multiplying. More "CLEAN" air desired. When the industries that consume the metal get back on track, watch it fly....
The so called theory you refer to is well supported by many pieces of data collected over the last six months. Sales for two releases (July and Oct), returns, repricing, backorder points, delivery of backorder coins, cancellations of orders and when those orders were placed, statements from the USM Public Affairs office, etc.
An educated guess.
However, I do think that forum members that pull out the problematic SALES REPORT as evidence of COINS AVAILABLE / MINTED and do not qualify their statements - such as the report is actually ORDERS (as we have been told by the USM).....and may be adjusted UP and DOWN, do not do the reader any justice....
Their position is a very weak argument, given what has begun to happen with "so-called SALES numbers" on the unc-w plats - especially the 1/4 oz issue, with 337 coin decrease due to returns and cancellations of orders not even considered in the report.
There were 1,228 single issue 2007-w 1/4 oz plats produced. 2007 was a "banner" year for sales. Another ~2,700 in sets. Low platinum material prices, high sales coming off an ultra low mintage year (2006).
2008 began with ultra high material prices (platinum at 1500-2000/oz), the first sale in July was abysmal, returns were enormous because the coins were taken down for repricing, and the USM's own statement of lower pricing to "sell remaining stock".
Given the information above, using the 1/4 oz plat unc-w coin as an example, why would the USM exceeded production of the 07-w single issue format coin of 1,228 ? - and it's not a stretch to say they produced some percentage of that level as a first run.
4 coin sets include the pricey 1 oz coin. In a year with material prices skyrocketing, do you think you go like gangbusters and produce sets like crazy?
Think about some correlation to platinum proofs produced. In 2007, the 4 coin sets in unc were sold to roughly 60% of same year proof 4 coin sets. Single coin options to 80% of same year proof.
If we believe that the 2008-w platinum proofs were extremely short struck, and the 4 coin proof sets sold 2000 sets, then why is 1200 sets unimaginable for the uncs? If you test the single coin options, you will see the low numbers that develop for the 08-w unc single issues.
Only time will tell us where these issue end up - the only factual evidence being an Audited Mintage Report for each the issues.
Everything else on this forum is only OPINION and should only be taken as such.
Yeah, I missed the 06-W Unc blitzkrieg, so it was a hole in my collection. I thought it would go for more, too. I saw a BIN that went for $895 just a few days ago. I was quite happy when I logged in to my account and saw that I had won it. I think it was a steal.
<< <i>Yeah, I missed the 06-W Unc blitzkrieg, so it was a hole in my collection. I thought it would go for more, too. I saw a BIN that went for $895 just a few days ago. I was quite happy when I logged in to my account and saw that I had won it. I think it was a steal. >>
You got that right! In a textbook lesson on how NOT to buy on fads, I bought mine for about three times that! Way to go!
I guess the big question is, how long will it take for the numbers to be readjusted? With the Mint, you never know. Could be next week, could be years from now. I just think that for such an obviously underminted issue, these unc. are getting bad, bad press. Do you think when the true numbers are revealed, and the mintages are BELOW 2006, people will even care? Seems like the flavor of the week, every time I log on we are chasing something "new." AGE's anyone? I just hope that when all options are off the table: gold/platinum/silver, we can start to get a better picture of where the "keys" are. I am assuming that people are just covering the board with chips, hoping their number comes up. Maybe '08 will be keys across the board. Certainly wouldn't suprise me, given the circumstances.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
2006 w unc was already an extremely low mintage due to the late release of those coins. Just because the mint had troubles this year with the plats doesn't automatically mean they made less than for 2006.
Historically the 1/4 is minted in more amounts than the 1/2 sizes for proof and unc combined.
The only evidence we have of what 2008 sales were was the backorder date. In all instances the backorder date came AFTER a low sales number BUT , was FOLLOWED by a HIGH sale NUMBER.
So the only evidence is not really evidence, it is only a range of possibilities.
The closest any coin came to being what the sales numbers show is probably the 1/2. At 1251 that seems about what the backorder sales were for that coin say may be very close to what the final number is.
If the 1/4 are made in higher amounts, then possible 1300 or 1350 for the 1/4
The 1/10 perhaps 2150.
4 Coin Sets are the wild card as has been said. It must be about 1500 sets, no less. So any way you slice it I think 2006 and 2008 will be close.
Now these are only my view on what the numbers could be, others have other ideas. I have said based on backorder I think it is unlikely the 1/2 and 1/4 approach 1000 as the 1/2 had sales through 1000 singles and didn't backorder for many days later at around 1250.
Anyway just saying how I see this, we will see what happens. I am holding my 2006 and 2008 and am NOT sweating this.
Also if we assume the 2006 and 2008 come in close together, that is not as good as a coin that has the key position all by itself so the 2006 and 2008 plats may not appreciate as much as some here are hoping short-term.
If the 2008 plat proof come in as low as I hope I wouldn't be surprised to see them within a year or less have a much higher value than the unc perhaps as it would be a sole key coin with the nearest one 25% higher in mintage perhaps. All the proof collectors get squeezed by that year.
With the unc there is nobody around to squeeze, the 2007 unc are dead in the water and another low year won't help things IMO.
Long-term may be a different story as unc tend to be valued higher than proof, but short-term MAYBE NOT.
The low issue key will be the key whether it sits in that position by 50 coins or 500 coins.
Take the 94-P and 93-s morgan. 110k vs 100k. Look at values. We can talk all day long about extant pieces, hoards, etc, but the example is a pure one.
IMO, the 08-w issue unc-w's will be the new keys, will be the lowest issue modern coins, will have much more desirability than even the 08-w plat proofs (btw, I think were in for a surprise increase in those numbers).
The final word on this is that we cant trust the sales report, it's not even known if we can trust the backorder points either. We need hard numbers, coins struck. Not sales, not returns, cancellations, big ol' red signs going up announcing backorder points, trying to determine where sales were at that point in time.......
Thanks for continuing to update and post the spreadsheet of mintages. It is very informative and helpful. >>
Sure, my pleasure. I'm very visual and need to see the numbers! I just edited for the reverse proof sets. I hope everyone will let me know when my figures are off--I take no offense and actually welcome the input.
IMO, the 08-w issue unc-w's will be the new keys, will be the lowest issue modern coins, will have much more desirability than even the 08-w plat proofs (btw, I think were in for a surprise increase in those numbers).
T >>
I do not see how the uncs could drop over a 1,000 each. That is wishfull thinking. The 06' numbers never realized such a large adjustment (the 1oz up 500) nor have I ever seen such dramatic adjustments to mint numbers (feel free to point some out to me). The proof plats have a better shot at key status. I own both so I have horses in both races - I just do not see how the uncs could drop that much - althuogh I would welcome it. I also see a lot of people quoting numbers of back orders but have no idea how you you could actually know how many backorders there are. Does the mint publish backorder numbers too? If not than the number of backorders being quoted is speculation.
It was a unique year. Many price reductions. Many people talking about returning. Maybe they did. Maybe the mint could see this coming. Maybe they took orders way in excess of inventory. Just because it never has happened doesn't mean it can't. Now, I will admit that I thought the mintage adjustments would have been bigger than they have been and that concerns me. I thought the numbers would have moved a lot last week. The longer it goes the less likely there will be any sort of big adjustment. The main reason people question the numbers was beacause the sales numbers went up so much from the most recent report and in such a short amount of time.
<< <i>How will the plat UNC w get listed in redbook, alone or lumped with the bullion coins?
I received a 2009 redbook today.
The uncirculated-w platinums are NOT distinguished in any meaningful way; they are just listed as "burnished."
If your only source of information was the Redbook, you would think that the only difference was the burnished finish and the "w" mintmark; there is absolutely NO explanation that the "burnished" coins have a different reverse.
For example, the listing for 2006 $100 coins reads:
The estimates for value are, as one would expect, complete fiction.
No mintage figures are provided for any coins after 2005.
Set listings are even worse.
The sets are listed under Platinum Bullion sets, and only show "[2006]W Platinum Set" for proofs, and "[2006]W Platinum Burnished Set" for the w-uncs.
There are NO mintages for any of the sets, and the coins issued as part of the 4 coin sets are NOT included in individual coin listings, creating misleading information for those coins.
For instance, the 2004 proofs: $25 (2,583) $50 (1,070)
The 2005 proofs: $25 (932) $50 (846)
If your only source of information was the redbook, you'd think the 2004 $25 proofs were much more common than 2005 $25 proofs.
It's shameful that a widely relied upon entry-level reference book that really only has to update a few pages each year does such a terrible job. >>
Probably ran by retired US Mint employees! >>
Does anyone know any Redbook editors? They really should be listed separately. The Redbook folks may just not have thought about them as they most likely don't follow plats. It the arguements presented in this forum are presented to them they may list them separately.
The 1/4 oz unc-w plat alone has dropped 337 coins in two weeks from returns. In the last two weeks only members on this forum reported over 311+ cancellations of orders previously included in those numbers. These cancellations have not been included in last weeks sales reports....as stated by the USM Office of Public Affairs......
So, most likely greater than a 648 coin decrease in this one issue alone in two weeks time.
1,000 coin decrease doesnt sound so far off anymore, does it?
It's not wishful thinking, it's reported information.
I would love to see the drop - I just don't think it will happen. If it does you can give me a big "I Told You So". I won't mind as I am holding a number of these.
I just got my 12-16 NN and the numbers have gone down in comparison to drei3ree recent chart.
Plat unc W 3680, 3415, 4063, 4643 and that includes the 2158 4-coin set. Down 429, even, up 127, even respectively. That one ounce is within 136 coins of the 2006W!
Plat proof W 4474, 3248, 3455, 4911 and that includes the 2217 4-coin set. Down 254, 104, 134, 195 respectively.
The low issue key will be the key whether it sits in that position by 50 coins or 500 coins.
Take the 94-P and 93-s morgan. 110k vs 100k. Look at values. We can talk all day long about extant pieces, hoards, etc, but the example is a pure one.
IMO, the 08-w issue unc-w's will be the new keys, will be the lowest issue modern coins, will have much more desirability than even the 08-w plat proofs (btw, I think were in for a surprise increase in those numbers). >>
110k vs 100k is 10%, that is a lot considering it is a silver coin that is very popular.
A 50 coin difference between the 2006 and 2008 w unc is hardly even the same thing, not even close. it is only 2% and it's almost a tie, especially since 50 2006 coins were melted or more.
Like I said we want a coin that is all alone as the undisputed king, not a couple close together by 2%. We will see how it works out but the 2008 proof plats may be better than these as far as appreciation, they won't have another within 20% if the numbers are as low as we think and for the fractionals it is an ended series so they will always be kings.
Also the mint tinkering with the plat unc numbers has damped sales for all these unc coins, there just is no interest right now. The buffaloes are very popular and these are complete sleepers, I am not sure how many unc plat collectors there are but it has to be well less than the 2007 mintages as those are really flat. It might be as low as the 2006 unc mintages as those have dropped off now. The good news is there is no place to go but up from here.
Plat proof W 4474, 3248, 3455, 4911 and that includes the 2217 4-coin set. Down 254, 104, 134, 195 respectively. >>
If the plat proof numbers end up that low prices are going to get scary high real fast IMO, those are all under 5000. They are almost all under the 2007 W unc plats even!
I have to agree about the potential for those Plat proof coins. Very low mintages and they do have a collector base. There remains the possibility that some may end up with lower mintages than the uncs.....!
Plat proof W 4474, 3248, 3455, 4911 and that includes the 2217 4-coin set. Down 254, 104, 134, 195 respectively. >>
If the plat proof numbers end up that low prices are going to get scary high real fast IMO, those are all under 5000. They are almost all under the 2007 W unc plats even! >>
A lot of numbers in very areas of society looks scary now days.
Coin Collector, Chicken Owner, Licensed Tax Preparer & Insurance Broker/Agent. San Diego, CA
<< <i>I just got my 12-16 NN and the numbers have gone down in comparison to drei3ree recent chart.
Plat unc W 3680, 3415, 4063, 4643 and that includes the 2158 4-coin set. Down 429, even, up 127, even respectively. That one ounce is within 136 coins of the 2006W!
Plat proof W 4474, 3248, 3455, 4911 and that includes the 2217 4-coin set. Down 254, 104, 134, 195 respectively.
Ren
clarification >>
Did I get the #'s right?
The last column shows the lowest's percentage of the 2nd lowest (red vs. green).
I ordered a very large number of plat one ounce coins on Dec 1st (multiple orders). When the orders were placed online they showed as "in stock and reserved" for many days. Now they show as back ordered. I believe that some people ordered after me and have already received their coins. I came to this conclusion by comparing the time stamps of my orders with others that ordered the same day. It appears that the mint does not always fill the orders in the order that they were received, which is what they represent. At this point I’m not optimistic and understand that my chances are slim to none that my order will be filled. Importantly, it is logical to assume that there are many other orders like mine that are still open that will not be filled. Therefore, the current numbers are OBVIOUSLY overstated and will be adjusted down substantially in the future as the sales totals are still counting CURRENT unfilled “back ordered” orders. Note: My orders went in BEFORE the back ordered notice was posted on the website. Therefore, it appears that very few if any will be filled that were entered as back ordered. I also ordered large quantities of the 4 pc sets, all of which were canceled. My view is that the final numbers will be very close to the sale numbers before they went back ordered which will likely make the 08's the key to the short series. IMO, strong circumstantial evidence. I also believe the PF Plats will also be the new keys, and probably by a wide margin.
<< <i>I ordered a very large number of plat one ounce coins on Dec 1st (multiple orders). When the orders were placed online they showed as "in stock and reserved" for many days. Now they show as back ordered. I believe that some people ordered after me and have already received their coins. I came to this conclusion by comparing the time stamps of my orders with others that ordered the same day. It appears that the mint does not always fill the orders in the order that they were received, which is what they represent. At this point I’m not optimistic and understand that my chances are slim to none that my order will be filled. Importantly, it is logical to assume that there are many other orders like mine that are still open that will not be filled. Therefore, the current numbers are OBVIOUSLY overstated and will be adjusted down substantially in the future as the sales totals are still counting CURRENT unfilled “back ordered” orders. Note: My orders went in BEFORE the back ordered notice was posted on the website. Therefore, it appears that very few if any will be filled that were entered as back ordered. I also ordered large quantities of the 4 pc sets, all of which were canceled. My view is that the final numbers will be very close to the sale numbers before they went back ordered which will likely make the 08's the key to the short series. IMO, strong circumstantial evidence. I also believe the PF Plats will also be the new keys, and probably by a wide margin. >>
I also ordered a number of 1 and 1/2 ounce proof APEs on evening of 12-8-08. Mine all show in stock and reserved with cancel box gone.
I know of 3 orders of 50 coins of 1/4 oz unc-w plats placed on 10/21 - the first 50 just prior to 5:30pm est and the next two orders later that evening,
Still backorder.
Still not cancelled.
However, I know of two more orders totalling 100 coins placed on Wed, 10/22 that have been cancelled.
If these plat unc-w numbers are "close" to what the sales report quoted, why aren't the orders above filled?
I just sent my Plat 1oz 08-W Unc back to the Mint today because I do not like the way it look To remind myself of a year full of ups-and-downs, I ordered an AE proof gold from the Mint
Apparently some "mainstream" products have been understruck also.
The 2008-S clad proof sets and state quarter proof sets are both showing as "not available", and eBay prices for the full clad set are already over $40.
The numbers will arrive and will be VERY SMALL................
With Plat Proof numbers that small, Plat Unc numbers will knock your socks off. There's enough data pointing to a tiny mintage......anyone who doesnt see it has blinders on.
7over8.......from your mouth to god's ears. I purchased a large amount of the platinum uncirculated coins. I also purchased buffalos. So far it looks like the buffalo 4 coin set is bringing in more money on the secondary market. I agree with you that if the platinum uncirculated coins are that low they will bring moon money. I had five 4 coin sets of the plat unc. on backorder and cancelled them, So your theory of the numbers coming down dramatically is possible......
I would think if the unc w plats were so understruck they wouldn't have had to take so many backorders assuming they did.
And the current numbers are beyond what anyone would take in backorders for so few coins. So that is why many are questioning if these were even shortstruck but had a more normal mintage given the circumstances.
The numbers are just TOO HIGH, that is what many are seeing.
Also the 1/4 is still over 2007 numbers, it isn't even under that mintage.
Could they drop? Sure, but to get to the really low numbers the mint would have had to be asleep at the ordering switch and allow massive backorders which seems unlikely.
This is why I am more optimistic on the proof plats as they went backorder quickly and went unavailable quickly. Few backorders perhaps because they had few coins left to sell.
I agree with you that if the platinum uncirculated coins are that low they will bring moon money. I had five 4 coin sets of the plat unc. on backorder and cancelled them, So your theory of the numbers coming down dramatically is possible......
The 2008-S clad proof sets and state quarter proof sets are both showing as "not available", and eBay prices for the full clad set are already over $40.
That is great evidence, Overdate...
Too many Mint offerings spread over a constrained production capacity, means limited striking runs.
I think that shows the proof are mostly held by the collector base now and the unc are held by flippers which is not what you want for a coin [sorry flippers]. The 2006 W unc made a lot of money so people jumped into the 2008 w unc hoping for the same outcome and it hasn't happened, the good news is it appears the proof were overlooked and were the real keys AND were scary low mintage perhaps.
I am still waiting for this weeks numbers on sales though before saying this is most likely true but it appears to be the case.
Also eventually the 2008 w unc will be absorbed by the market and take on a better valuation perhaps, but it may take some time. If the proof plats are held mostly by collectors then they would appreciate more rapidly and we may see that soon depending on the numbers.
I don't think that the number of these paticular coins for sale on ebay tells us anything. The difference between the 2 is the fact that people have had enough time to receive the unc. send them in to get graded and time to list. Most of the flippers probably have not even received there proofs yet. They ordered during the flurry last week when things were selling out.
Comments
<< <i>Okay, TRUCE on the numbers!
Did you see Goldbully's post that all the 2008 Eagle Commemoratives have gone dark??? I find that astonishing. I mean, I haven't even checked them for months, but it's a new area ripe for discussion/speculation/hyping/dissing etc... >>
It was planned for months GritsMan....see below Mint PR
Last Chance to Order Bald Eagle Commemorative Coins
Dec. 12 Set as Deadline to Order Coins Honoring Recovery of Our National Emblem
WASHINGTON - Time is running out to order Bald Eagle Commemorative Coins. The United States Mint announced today that it will stop sales of the coins struck to celebrate the recovery of our national emblem, the American Bald Eagle, on Dec. 12, 2008, at 5 p.m. (ET). Surcharges collected from the sale of these coins are authorized to be paid to the American Eagle Foundation of Tennessee to further its work.
Bald Eagle Commemorative Coin options still available include proof and uncirculated versions of a gold coin with a denomination of $5, a silver dollar coin and a half-dollar clad coin. A Coin and Medal Set, featuring an uncirculated Bald Eagle Silver Dollar and a bronze Bald Eagle Medal from the National Wildlife Refuge System Centennial Medal Series, also is available. Individual coin options include a Certificate of Authenticity.
The Bald Eagle Proof Silver Dollar Coin also will be available in the 2008 United States Mint American Legacy Collection®, one of the star attractions in the United States Mint's Gift Catalog scheduled for release in late October.
The maximum mintage for all Bald Eagle Commemorative Coin options, including sets, is limited to 100,000 $5 gold coins, 500,000 silver dollar coins and 750,000 clad half-dollars. There is no order limit on these options.
Itemized pricing information for the Bald Eagle Commemorative Coins is as follows:
Option Price
Proof $5 Gold Coin (EA1) $319.95
Uncirculated $5 Gold Coin (EA2) $309.95
Proof Silver Dollar (EA3) $43.95
Uncirculated Silver Dollar (EA4) $37.95
Proof Clad Half-Dollar (EA5) $10.95
Uncirculated Clad Half-Dollar (EA6) $8.95
Coin and Medal Set (EA6) $44.95
American Legacy Collection (AL2) $100.00
To make the Bald Eagle Commemorative Coin options part of your coin collection, visit the United States Mint's secure Web site at www.usmint.gov, or call the toll-free number, 1-800-USA-MINT (872-6468). Hearing- and speech-impaired customers with TTY equipment may place their orders by calling 1-888-321-MINT (6468) from 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. (ET), Monday through Friday.
Customers paying by credit card should ensure that their information remains current to avoid order processing delays. Orders made with credit cards that expire before the products are shipped will be cancelled. After an order has been placed, customers may update credit card information at 1-800-USA-MINT (872-6468).
<< <i>These did not even come close to maximum mintages. For the $5 gold, something in the neighborhood of 33,000 proofs and 14,000 uncs.
In the past, I'd say the uncs would be worth watching, but in this climate, I don't think so--not for a long while. Too many OTHER low mintage issues that make this one seem high--and a dwindling demand due to the economy. Still, I'm glad I got one. >>
This is why I ordered 20 of the UNC Silver Dollars last week.
You make it seem like 1000 coins overstated is huge?
We are already down 337 coins in two weekly sales reports and haven't included 311+ cancellations.......on the 1/4 oz unc-w plat
In about 2-3 more weeks we'll be there......the dominoes are fallin in the right direction.......
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
<< <i>The market already knows that the 2006-W Unc plats are going to be supplanted by the 2008s. I just picked up a $50 2006-W MS69 for $567 on the bay
I was watching that coin and I was thinking it would sell for at least $700
$800 /oz platinum will not last for long. Demand will not always be this low. Tree huggers are multiplying. More "CLEAN" air desired. When the industries that consume the metal get back on track, watch it fly....
If you read my posts, I always preface with "IMO"
That is not stating FACT, it is IN MY OPINION.
So, not to depart with my comments above -
IMO -
The so called theory you refer to is well supported by many pieces of data collected over the last six months. Sales for two releases (July and Oct), returns, repricing, backorder points, delivery of backorder coins, cancellations of orders and when those orders were placed, statements from the USM Public Affairs office, etc.
An educated guess.
However, I do think that forum members that pull out the problematic SALES REPORT as evidence of COINS AVAILABLE / MINTED and do not qualify their statements - such as the report is actually ORDERS (as we have been told by the USM).....and may be adjusted UP and DOWN, do not do the reader any justice....
Their position is a very weak argument, given what has begun to happen with "so-called SALES numbers" on the unc-w plats - especially the 1/4 oz issue, with 337 coin decrease due to returns and cancellations of orders not even considered in the report.
There were 1,228 single issue 2007-w 1/4 oz plats produced. 2007 was a "banner" year for sales. Another ~2,700 in sets. Low platinum material prices, high sales coming off an ultra low mintage year (2006).
2008 began with ultra high material prices (platinum at 1500-2000/oz), the first sale in July was abysmal, returns were enormous because the coins were taken down for repricing, and the USM's own statement of lower pricing to "sell remaining stock".
Given the information above, using the 1/4 oz plat unc-w coin as an example, why would the USM exceeded production of the 07-w single issue format coin of 1,228 ? - and it's not a stretch to say they produced some percentage of that level as a first run.
4 coin sets include the pricey 1 oz coin. In a year with material prices skyrocketing, do you think you go like gangbusters and produce sets like crazy?
Think about some correlation to platinum proofs produced. In 2007, the 4 coin sets in unc were sold to roughly 60% of same year proof 4 coin sets. Single coin options to 80% of same year proof.
If we believe that the 2008-w platinum proofs were extremely short struck, and the 4 coin proof sets sold 2000 sets, then why is 1200 sets unimaginable for the uncs? If you test the single coin options, you will see the low numbers that develop for the 08-w unc single issues.
Only time will tell us where these issue end up - the only factual evidence being an Audited Mintage Report for each the issues.
Everything else on this forum is only OPINION and should only be taken as such.
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
<< <i>Yeah, I missed the 06-W Unc blitzkrieg, so it was a hole in my collection. I thought it would go for more, too. I saw a BIN that went for $895 just a few days ago. I was quite happy when I logged in to my account and saw that I had won it. I think it was a steal. >>
You got that right! In a textbook lesson on how NOT to buy on fads, I bought mine for about three times that! Way to go!
I just hope that when all options are off the table: gold/platinum/silver, we can start to get a better picture of where the "keys" are. I am assuming that people are just covering the board with chips, hoping their number comes up.
Maybe '08 will be keys across the board. Certainly wouldn't suprise me, given the circumstances.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
Historically the 1/4 is minted in more amounts than the 1/2 sizes for proof and unc combined.
The only evidence we have of what 2008 sales were was the backorder date. In all instances the backorder date came AFTER a low sales number BUT , was FOLLOWED by a HIGH sale NUMBER.
So the only evidence is not really evidence, it is only a range of possibilities.
The closest any coin came to being what the sales numbers show is probably the 1/2. At 1251 that seems about what the backorder sales were for that coin say may be very close to what the final number is.
If the 1/4 are made in higher amounts, then possible 1300 or 1350 for the 1/4
The 1/10 perhaps 2150.
4 Coin Sets are the wild card as has been said. It must be about 1500 sets, no less. So any way you slice it I think 2006 and 2008 will be close.
Now these are only my view on what the numbers could be, others have other ideas. I have said based on backorder I think it is unlikely the 1/2 and 1/4 approach 1000 as the 1/2 had sales through 1000 singles and didn't backorder for many days later at around 1250.
Anyway just saying how I see this, we will see what happens. I am holding my 2006 and 2008 and am NOT sweating this.
If the 2008 plat proof come in as low as I hope I wouldn't be surprised to see them within a year or less have a much higher value than the unc perhaps as it would be a sole key coin with the nearest one 25% higher in mintage perhaps. All the proof collectors get squeezed by that year.
With the unc there is nobody around to squeeze, the 2007 unc are dead in the water and another low year won't help things IMO.
Long-term may be a different story as unc tend to be valued higher than proof, but short-term MAYBE NOT.
Thanks for continuing to update and post the spreadsheet of mintages. It is very informative and helpful.
The low issue key will be the key whether it sits in that position by 50 coins or 500 coins.
Take the 94-P and 93-s morgan. 110k vs 100k. Look at values. We can talk all day long about extant pieces, hoards, etc, but the example is a pure one.
IMO, the 08-w issue unc-w's will be the new keys, will be the lowest issue modern coins, will have much more desirability than even the 08-w plat proofs (btw, I think were in for a surprise increase in those numbers).
The final word on this is that we cant trust the sales report, it's not even known if we can trust the backorder points either. We need hard numbers, coins struck. Not sales, not returns, cancellations, big ol' red signs going up announcing backorder points, trying to determine where sales were at that point in time.......
<< <i>drei3ree
Thanks for continuing to update and post the spreadsheet of mintages. It is very informative and helpful. >>
Sure, my pleasure. I'm very visual and need to see the numbers! I just edited for the reverse proof sets. I hope everyone will let me know when my figures are off--I take no offense and actually welcome the input.
<< <i>Half -
IMO, the 08-w issue unc-w's will be the new keys, will be the lowest issue modern coins, will have much more desirability than even the 08-w plat proofs (btw, I think were in for a surprise increase in those numbers).
T >>
I do not see how the uncs could drop over a 1,000 each. That is wishfull thinking. The 06' numbers never realized such a large adjustment (the 1oz up 500) nor have I ever seen such dramatic adjustments to mint numbers (feel free to point some out to me). The proof plats have a better shot at key status. I own both so I have horses in both races - I just do not see how the uncs could drop that much - althuogh I would welcome it. I also see a lot of people quoting numbers of back orders but have no idea how you you could actually know how many backorders there are. Does the mint publish backorder numbers too? If not than the number of backorders being quoted is speculation.
<< <i>
<< <i>How will the plat UNC w get listed in redbook, alone or lumped with the bullion coins?
I received a 2009 redbook today.
The uncirculated-w platinums are NOT distinguished in any meaningful way; they are just listed as "burnished."
If your only source of information was the Redbook, you would think that the only difference was the burnished finish and the "w" mintmark; there is absolutely NO explanation that the "burnished" coins have a different reverse.
For example, the listing for 2006 $100 coins reads:
_______________________Unc.__PF______
$100 2006............................$2,700
$100 2006W, Burnished.....$2,700
$100 2006W........................................$1,800
The estimates for value are, as one would expect, complete fiction.
No mintage figures are provided for any coins after 2005.
Set listings are even worse.
The sets are listed under Platinum Bullion sets, and only show "[2006]W Platinum Set" for proofs, and "[2006]W Platinum Burnished Set" for the w-uncs.
There are NO mintages for any of the sets, and the coins issued as part of the 4 coin sets are NOT included in individual coin listings, creating misleading information for those coins.
For instance, the 2004 proofs:
$25 (2,583)
$50 (1,070)
The 2005 proofs:
$25 (932)
$50 (846)
If your only source of information was the redbook, you'd think the 2004 $25 proofs were much more common than 2005 $25 proofs.
It's shameful that a widely relied upon entry-level reference book that really only has to update a few pages each year does such a terrible job. >>
Probably ran by retired US Mint employees!
Does anyone know any Redbook editors? They really should be listed separately. The Redbook folks may just not have thought about them as they most likely don't follow plats. It the arguements presented in this forum are presented to them they may list them separately.
The 1/4 oz unc-w plat alone has dropped 337 coins in two weeks from returns. In the last two weeks only members on this forum reported over 311+ cancellations of orders previously included in those numbers. These cancellations have not been included in last weeks sales reports....as stated by the USM Office of Public Affairs......
So, most likely greater than a 648 coin decrease in this one issue alone in two weeks time.
1,000 coin decrease doesnt sound so far off anymore, does it?
It's not wishful thinking, it's reported information.
Plat unc W
3680, 3415, 4063, 4643 and that includes the 2158 4-coin set. Down 429, even, up 127, even respectively.
That one ounce is within 136 coins of the 2006W!
Plat proof W
4474, 3248, 3455, 4911 and that includes the 2217 4-coin set. Down 254, 104, 134, 195 respectively.
Ren
clarification
<< <i>Half -
The low issue key will be the key whether it sits in that position by 50 coins or 500 coins.
Take the 94-P and 93-s morgan. 110k vs 100k. Look at values. We can talk all day long about extant pieces, hoards, etc, but the example is a pure one.
IMO, the 08-w issue unc-w's will be the new keys, will be the lowest issue modern coins, will have much more desirability than even the 08-w plat proofs (btw, I think were in for a surprise increase in those numbers).
>>
110k vs 100k is 10%, that is a lot considering it is a silver coin that is very popular.
A 50 coin difference between the 2006 and 2008 w unc is hardly even the same thing, not even close. it is only 2% and it's almost a tie, especially since 50 2006 coins were melted or more.
Like I said we want a coin that is all alone as the undisputed king, not a couple close together by 2%. We will see how it works out but the 2008 proof plats may be better than these as far as appreciation, they won't have another within 20% if the numbers are as low as we think and for the fractionals it is an ended series so they will always be kings.
Also the mint tinkering with the plat unc numbers has damped sales for all these unc coins, there just is no interest right now. The buffaloes are very popular and these are complete sleepers, I am not sure how many unc plat collectors there are but it has to be well less than the 2007 mintages as those are really flat. It might be as low as the 2006 unc mintages as those have dropped off now. The good news is there is no place to go but up from here.
<< <i>
Plat proof W
4474, 3248, 3455, 4911 and that includes the 2217 4-coin set. Down 254, 104, 134, 195 respectively.
>>
If the plat proof numbers end up that low prices are going to get scary high real fast IMO, those are all under 5000. They are almost all under the 2007 W unc plats even!
2008 W Proof Platinum (4-Coin Set 2,296 Units Added to Singles) :
$100 - 2008 W = 4,728 vs. 2004 W = 6,007 - The Difference = 1,279
$50 - 2008 W = 3,352 vs. 2004 W = 5,063 - The Difference = 1,711
$25 - 2008 W = 3,589 vs. 2004 W = 5,193 - The Difference = 1,604
$10 - 2008 W = 5,106 vs. 2004 W = 7,161 - The Difference = 2,055
Even with next weeks numbers added, I really can't see how the 2008 W Platinum Proofs will NOT become the New KEYs of the series!
<< <i>
<< <i>
Plat proof W
4474, 3248, 3455, 4911 and that includes the 2217 4-coin set. Down 254, 104, 134, 195 respectively.
>>
If the plat proof numbers end up that low prices are going to get scary high real fast IMO, those are all under 5000. They are almost all under the 2007 W unc plats even! >>
A lot of numbers in very areas of society looks scary now days.
San Diego, CA
<< <i>I just got my 12-16 NN and the numbers have gone down in comparison to drei3ree recent chart.
Plat unc W
3680, 3415, 4063, 4643 and that includes the 2158 4-coin set. Down 429, even, up 127, even respectively.
That one ounce is within 136 coins of the 2006W!
Plat proof W
4474, 3248, 3455, 4911 and that includes the 2217 4-coin set. Down 254, 104, 134, 195 respectively.
Ren
clarification >>
Did I get the #'s right?
The last column shows the lowest's percentage of the 2nd lowest (red vs. green).
you bet those unc-w numbers will fall dramatically over the next several weeks once all returns and cancellations are processed.
Just like others have surmised, the rush for unc-w plats caused the USM to take tremendous amts of orders in excess of available stock.
Over-orders well in excess of 1000 coins on some denominations and excess 900 set orders have seen no deliveries since going backorder.
The proofs are always minted in more quantity than unc's, most times to a factor of 1 proof to .6 unc's, and I believe this year will be no exception.
<< <i>I ordered a very large number of plat one ounce coins on Dec 1st (multiple orders). When the orders were placed online they showed as "in stock and reserved" for many days. Now they show as back ordered. I believe that some people ordered after me and have already received their coins. I came to this conclusion by comparing the time stamps of my orders with others that ordered the same day. It appears that the mint does not always fill the orders in the order that they were received, which is what they represent. At this point I’m not optimistic and understand that my chances are slim to none that my order will be filled. Importantly, it is logical to assume that there are many other orders like mine that are still open that will not be filled. Therefore, the current numbers are OBVIOUSLY overstated and will be adjusted down substantially in the future as the sales totals are still counting CURRENT unfilled “back ordered” orders. Note: My orders went in BEFORE the back ordered notice was posted on the website. Therefore, it appears that very few if any will be filled that were entered as back ordered. I also ordered large quantities of the 4 pc sets, all of which were canceled. My view is that the final numbers will be very close to the sale numbers before they went back ordered which will likely make the 08's the key to the short series. IMO, strong circumstantial evidence. I also believe the PF Plats will also be the new keys, and probably by a wide margin. >>
I also ordered a number of 1 and 1/2 ounce proof APEs on evening of 12-8-08.
Mine all show in stock and reserved with cancel box gone.
Still backorder.
Still not cancelled.
However, I know of two more orders totalling 100 coins placed on Wed, 10/22 that have been cancelled.
If these plat unc-w numbers are "close" to what the sales report quoted, why aren't the orders above filled?
8 weeks and counting.
To remind myself of a year full of ups-and-downs, I ordered an AE proof gold from the Mint
Anyone know the 20+ Year Mintages of the American Gold Eagle $50, $25, $10 and $5?
The 2008-S clad proof sets and state quarter proof sets are both showing as "not available", and eBay prices for the full clad set are already over $40.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The numbers will arrive and will be VERY SMALL................
With Plat Proof numbers that small, Plat Unc numbers will knock your socks off. There's enough data pointing to a tiny mintage......anyone who doesnt see it has blinders on.
And the current numbers are beyond what anyone would take in backorders for so few coins. So that is why many are questioning if these were even shortstruck but had a more normal mintage given the circumstances.
The numbers are just TOO HIGH, that is what many are seeing.
Also the 1/4 is still over 2007 numbers, it isn't even under that mintage.
Could they drop? Sure, but to get to the really low numbers the mint would have had to be asleep at the ordering switch and allow massive backorders which seems unlikely.
This is why I am more optimistic on the proof plats as they went backorder quickly and went unavailable quickly. Few backorders perhaps because they had few coins left to sell.
1/10 ounce, 21 unc., 5 proof.
1/4 ounce, 15 unc., 5 proof.
1/2 ounce, 18 unc., 1 proof.
1 ounce, 10 unc., 3 proof.
Theories welcome!
Edited to add: 4-coin sets, 8 unc., 4 proof.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
They are losers, kid, trust me!
That is great evidence, Overdate...
Too many Mint offerings spread over a constrained production capacity, means limited striking runs.
<< <i>I just did a quick check of 2008-W plats for sale/auction on eBay, counted the following:
1/10 ounce, 21 unc., 5 proof.
1/4 ounce, 15 unc., 5 proof.
1/2 ounce, 18 unc., 1 proof.
1 ounce, 10 unc., 3 proof.
Theories welcome!
Edited to add: 4-coin sets, 8 unc., 4 proof. >>
I think that shows the proof are mostly held by the collector base now and the unc are held by flippers which is not what you want for a coin [sorry flippers]. The 2006 W unc made a lot of money so people jumped into the 2008 w unc hoping for the same outcome and it hasn't happened, the good news is it appears the proof were overlooked and were the real keys AND were scary low mintage perhaps.
I am still waiting for this weeks numbers on sales though before saying this is most likely true but it appears to be the case.
Also eventually the 2008 w unc will be absorbed by the market and take on a better valuation perhaps, but it may take some time. If the proof plats are held mostly by collectors then they would appreciate more rapidly and we may see that soon depending on the numbers.