<< <i>Very funny, but wholesale helpful, stuff Danny!
I agree with many of you here. As painful as it may be for the search of the next holy grail of low mintage Mint Lottery Offerings, it didn't happen in 2012 for me.
I miss the excitement of the first pucks, the 2008-2007' SAE's, Anniversary Sets (the Real ones), and the slow-simmering UHR.
Miles >>
Very well stated Miles, as usual. I too miss the excitement of those days.
Depending on what happens with the 2013 100th Buff. anniversary we may see some times like those this year.
<< <i>I know the spouse numbers are lower but the collector base is so much smaller. I would say there are 6x more proof eagle collectors as spouse collectors easily. With the spouses they all are pretty much getting lumped together. On the half here we are talking about a 40% beat of the prior lowest mintage proof eagle. Will people notice that? I am betting yes. If these numbers are correct we are talking about the second lowest half eagle ever (2007 w burnished $25 is first). It's a proof coin which I think everyone agrees is better than a non proof coin as far as looks are concerned. I think the telemarketers and tv coin shows eat this up. Of course I could be wrong but I am not putting your money on the line, so I am ok with that. And with the recovery gaining strength and my inside source at the mint saying they will accept EBT cards soon, this is a lock >>
Your facts are spot on.
That said, re: proofs vs uncs, it's interesting how well the 2011 W $50 AGE Unc did when it appeared to be the lowest mintage, and then the 2012 W when it came in lower. For that matter, how about the 2008 W $10 AGE Unc. - that was an amazing score considering the low initial cost.
The AGE's are definately more popular than the spouses. Maybe the best thing that can be said of the 2012 AGE proofs is they would decrease in value less than other "common" proofs if gold goes down in price.
The Hawaii 'P' 5oz is another interesting coin. I think a bunch of the 2012 5oz'ers will come in around 15K. If you look at the 1996 olympic coins with similar mintages they can be had for around $200 to $250 in OGP or MS69, so I don't think longer term the 5oz'ers will be able to have much premium over their silver value. Short term some people are going nuts. There's a Hawaii at $575 OGP on ebay as I write this.
<< <i>The AGE's are definately more popular than the spouses. Maybe the best thing that can be said of the 2012 AGE proofs is they would decrease in value less than other "common" proofs if gold goes down in price.
The Hawaii 'P' 5oz is another interesting coin. I think a bunch of the 2012 5oz'ers will come in around 15K. If you look at the 1996 olympic coins with similar mintages they can be had for around $200 to $250 in OGP or MS69, so I don't think longer term the 5oz'ers will be able to have much premium over their silver value. Short term some people are going nuts. There's a Hawaii at $575 OGP on ebay as I write this. >>
Wow, two of them sold raw for $589.99 just yesterday.
I buy one of each just because I like the set. I have not been following prices as I didn't buy them to sell. Pretty cool. Of course, likely that lower mintages will come later.
<< If gold doubles it will be because of great demand. Premiums should increase with such demand. ASE demand recently created a premium increase. >>
Premiums for bullion common-date gold and silver eagles may increase during times of rationing by the Mint, but if gold doubles, numismatic premiums will go down for the better dates.
<< <i><< If gold doubles it will be because of great demand. Premiums should increase with such demand. ASE demand recently created a premium increase. >>
Premiums for bullion common-date gold and silver eagles may increase during times of rationing by the Mint, but if gold doubles, numismatic premiums will go down for the better dates. >>
If Gold Bullion Doubles I will be happy to sell my Gold Eagles for Bullion Value.
Looks like the final sales numbers are out on the 2012 proof gold eagle sets. According to mint news blog, the 2012 proof half has a total mintage 12919 compared to the prior proof half low in 2008 of 22,602.
12919/22602= 57.2%
That my friends is what you call a serious key. It also means that the 2012 proof gold eagle is the 2nd lowest minted half in any finish (with the 2007 w $25 burnished first). I know there are doubters but I think a beat like that will get the attention of collectors and telemarketers alike. I won't guess what they are worth but if you find one near mint issue price, I would definitely buy it.
Looks like the final sales numbers are out on the 2012 proof gold eagle sets. According to mint news blog, the 2012 proof half has a total mintage 12919 compared to the prior proof half low in 2008 of 22,602.
12919/22602= 57.2%
That my friends is what you call a serious key. It also means that the 2012 proof gold eagle is the 2nd lowest minted half in any finish (with the 2007 w $25 burnished first).
I tend to agree with your assessment, but as usual we will have to see what the market thinks about it. One added point is that there are probably more active collectors of the Proofs. There is the usual question about why there were so few sales during the time that the coin was being offered by the Mint.
If the economy is causing collectors to drop out due to a lack of disposable income, then they will all have to ride the same wave along with gold prices, for better or worse. Still, a nice deep key is always a good starting point.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Looks like the final sales numbers are out on the 2012 proof gold eagle sets. According to mint news blog, the 2012 proof half has a total mintage 12919 compared to the prior proof half low in 2008 of 22,602.
12919/22602= 57.2%
That my friends is what you call a serious key. It also means that the 2012 proof gold eagle is the 2nd lowest minted half in any finish (with the 2007 w $25 burnished first). I know there are doubters but I think a beat like that will get the attention of collectors and telemarketers alike. I won't guess what they are worth but if you find one near mint issue price, I would definitely buy it. >>
PR/PF70's should initially retail for about $2K and then drop off.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i><< If gold doubles it will be because of great demand. Premiums should increase with such demand. ASE demand recently created a premium increase. >>
Premiums for bullion common-date gold and silver eagles may increase during times of rationing by the Mint, but if gold doubles, numismatic premiums will go down for the better dates. >>
If Gold Bullion Doubles I will be happy to sell my Gold Eagles for Bullion Value. >>
So will many other people, which is why premiums on the better dates will continue to drop if the gold price rises.
<< <i><< If gold doubles it will be because of great demand. Premiums should increase with such demand. ASE demand recently created a premium increase. >>
Premiums for bullion common-date gold and silver eagles may increase during times of rationing by the Mint, but if gold doubles, numismatic premiums will go down for the better dates. >>
If Gold Bullion Doubles I will be happy to sell my Gold Eagles for Bullion Value. >>
So will many other people, which is why premiums on the better dates will continue to drop if the gold price rises. >>
The premium over spot percentage wise may drop if gold rises, but the premium ( in Dollars ) over original USmint prices that most on this message board paid will grow, Maybe not as fast as bullion grows but it will increase in value. Bottom line if you own a key, the price it goes for right now will not go down as long as bullion is rising. However if a new key is born! Look Out Belowwwwwww.
2012 Proof gold will be a waste of time for those who see big things coming from these coins and believe they are serious keys.
First, when the 2001 was thought to be a "serious key", it went down the drain. Second, when 2008 was thought to be a "serious key", it went down the drain.
I predict 2012 proof gold will be the next year to go down the drain especially when we see the mintage figures on 2013 and 2014 proof gold.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
For the 2012 w Proof Eagle 1/2 oz, I think 2k is too optimistic, but they deserve more respect than melt value. I will be a happy camper if they get a premium of 40-60% over melt.
I don't anticipate anything good happening with the 2012 1/2 over the medium to long term. In the short term maybe, but I'd rather gamble on 2013 buffaloes and anything platinum, especially proof eagles.
<< <i>I don't anticipate anything good happening with the 2012 1/2 over the medium to long term. In the short term maybe, but I'd rather gamble on 2013 buffaloes and anything platinum, especially proof eagles. >>
Have any "final final" mintage totals for the 2011 spouses been released?
The 2012 Alice Paul uncirculated, at reported sales of 2250 this week, is approaching the territory inhabited by the 2011 Lucy Hayes and Lucretia Garfield.
The 2012 Alice Paul uncirculated, at reported sales of 2250 this week, is approaching the territory inhabited by the 2011 Lucy Hayes and Lucretia Garfield.
Interesting observation. Do you think that the Mint alters their production planning in response to sales demand between each issue? It seems so from year to year.
But in the case of the 2012 Spouses, they left them until late in the year and then they had problems with metal flow. (Which seems kinda strange too, since they've been in production for 5 years now). They finally ran all of the 2012 Spouses within a fairly short window, so it seems unlikely to me that they would have made many adjustments for demand between batches.
Will the initial sellout be representative of all of the 2012 issues, and when do you think it's coming?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
2012 Proof gold will be a waste of time for those who see big things coming from these coins and believe they are serious keys.
First, when the 2001 was thought to be a "serious key", it went down the drain. Second, when 2008 was thought to be a "serious key", it went down the drain.
I predict 2012 proof gold will be the next year to go down the drain especially when we see the mintage figures on 2013 and 2014 proof gold.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin >>
Do you think the 2013 Buffalos will have a negative / draining impact on the value of the 2008 Buffalos?
I have to disagree with you here. The 2008 proof eagles mintages were high in comparison to the 2006-2008 burnished gold eagles. That's not the case with the 2012 Proof Gold Eagles. The 2012 Proof Gold Eagle Half has the 2nd lowest amount of coins in the $25 gold denomination series and the $10 is the 3rd lowest in its class.
2007w Burnished $25 Gold - Greysheets for - $1,675 (11,458 coins) 2012 w $25 Gold Proof - ? (12919 coins) 2006/8 w $25 gold - 1,450/1,400 (15164/15682 Coins)
Let's try to use actual numbers to try and prove points, not I have a feeling.
These coins should and will have a quick pop in price and long term have very good potential. A large portion of the Gold Eagle sets will be locked away in IRAs, which means the circulating population could in fact be the lowest numbers for each group. Look at the facts, there is a large collector base for these sets and now the key coin has been identified, and its by a large percent!!!
Mr wondercoin, if you are not a believer of these sets and have any for sale, I WOULD BE ECSTATIC to take them off your hands and the current going market rate!!!!
Goldman86: I have none of the 2012's, because I wouldn't touch the coins and tie my money up on them. Obviously, I could have bought a ton of them with just a phone call if I had wanted them last month.
You also cite Greysheet (wholesale?) pricing on other gold coins ... pricing that is simply outdated I believe. For example, do you know anywhere that I can get "$1,450" on a 2006-W $25 gold eagle right now? Or, even $1,675 on the 2007-W $25 Gold Eagle. If you do, please send me a PM and I can lock you up on a small group of them this week.
I am not always right, nor are you. I remember when Proof Buchanans were selling for nearly 2x the price of MS Buchanans and many here were touting the proofs as the big winner on the boards. I came out on a thread and said that I was buying up the MS Buchanan coins as I thought the proofs made no sense at levels above the MS coins. Well, about a year later now, the MS Buchanan sell for MORE than the proofs.
Again, let's see this time next year how the 2012 proof gold has performed. I'll be the first one to tell you that you were right when, and if, the coins sell for a sizeable premum over mint issue price unrelated to a rising gold spot. And, hopefully, you will do the same if I turned out to be right. If I am wrong, it won't be the first time.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
One question regarding the IRA's. Is it a fact or is it just speculations that the IRA's is holding a substantial amount of proof gold eagles?
When the US Mint suspended proof gold eagle in 2009, all proof gold eagle was trading at a premium in 2010 (before the release of 2010 proof gold eagle). Some said it was due to IRA demand. Do you know if it was true from a dealer's prospective?
One question regarding the IRA's. Is it a fact or is it just speculations that the IRA's is holding a substantial amount of proof gold eagles?
When the US Mint suspended proof gold eagle in 2009, all proof gold eagle was trading at a premium in 2010 (before the release of 2010 proof gold eagle). Some said it was due to IRA demand. Do you know if it was the true from a dealer's prospective? >>
I know of no one putting gold eagle proofs into an IRA. Is anyone here doing so? Most who have done research on bullion IRAs wouldn't dare tie their gold up for that long; bull market will most likely reverse during the wait. Those that are stacking in an IRA are doing so with cheaper gold. Proofs are an expensive way to accumulate gold in an IRA.
As I stated earlier 2012 W $25 AGEs should peak this year at no more than $2K and then drop back off. Just not that many proof collectors; speculators will temporarily drive them up.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Again, let's see this time next year how the 2012 proof gold has performed. I'll be the first one to tell you that you were right when, and if, the coins sell for a sizeable premum over mint issue price unrelated to a rising gold spot. And, hopefully, you will do the same if I turned out to be right. If I am wrong, it won't be the first time.
Wondercoin >>
These may take a couple of years to see what will happen. If the 13's are made in somewhat higher quantities then I think you will see a decent appreciation.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
"These may take a couple of years to see what will happen. If the 13's are made in somewhat higher quantities then I think you will see a decent appreciation."
Fair enough. Obviously, if the 13's are made in somewhat lower quantities, we can at least agree 2013's were the better buy!
Remember, mintages are not all that matter. My opinion takes into account more than just bald mintage figures. If mintages were all that mattered, the 7,000 mintage SSB $5 Gold Commem wouldn't be trading at $575 right now but closer to $1,250 - $1,500 while the CVC with roughly the same mintage is trading at $1,500-$2,000... give or take, and has a price guide value of $3,000 in MS69! Think about it.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Obviously, if the 13's are made in somewhat lower quantities, we can at least agree 2013's were the better buy!
My observation it is possible but not likely. In my mind 2011 Proof AGEs were overproduced and were selling all the way till late 2012 along with 2012-dated Proofs.
I guess USM had a good idea how many 2011 were still in stock going into 2012 production and they consciously chose to strike less of 2012 dated.
Now we're in the very beginning of 2013 and all previous dates are sold out before 2013-dated striking begins. It is very likely they will strike more 2013 than 2012
The 1/2 oz 2007-Ws are fairly strong and the greysheet price isn't out of the question. The 1/2 oz 2006-W is all over the map, but relatively weak, however I do believe that the price recovered to over $1,700 on a recent ebay auction that I tracked.
That being said, the 2012-Ws are Proofs and I suspect that they are a different animal in terms of the collector base. We shall see, and I don't expect it to take longer than a year before we know the trend. I'm not at all sorry that I bought some.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I believe the proof Buchanan's are only selling cheaper than the UNCs right now because there is one group that held a very large quantity of that particular coin. That holder has more or less flooded the market because they simply want out of their position Once that supply is gone, I believe the true market price will be found on Buchanan coins. The problem is, the buyer of that hoard simply does not believe anyone cares about the First spouses and the money would be better spent on newer fresher material.
In regards to Proof Gold sets being put in IRAs, there are companies that push their clients toward putting Gold Proof Sets in IRAs every year, which is where a lot of the demand for the sets come from. That being said, it is not a strategy I would advise
I currently own 1 2012 proof gold Eagle set, but am trying to accumulate a number of these sets ASAP. The upside is way to good compared to the downside. Indeed, I could have ordered sets from the mint last week, but I didn't realize they would sell out...had I known, I would have bought from them...
If a person bought the 2012 proof Gold Eagle sets now, they could follow the mint sales figures next year and make a more educated decision about next years numbers at that time. If the mintage looks like it will surpass the 2012 mintages, then they keep them, if the mintage of 2013 is lower, they can sell out of their position at that time. If you have none on hand though, you may have missed the boat.
Just my 2 cents, but the numbers on the proof Gold eagle half is very exciting...
I am not always correct and have never said as much.
About the SSBs ... I actually think they are good buy at the price they are selling at, and recently purchased a few!!!
One more thing... I have talked with 3 MAJOR players in the coin industry about the 2012 Gold Proof Eagle mintages and all 3 had no idea the mintages were as low as they were. When I notified them exactly how rare they were, all 3 were very interested in the set and wanted to play...
I won't name drop, but they are legitimate major players.
"In regards to Proof Gold sets being put in IRAs, there are companies that push their clients toward putting Gold Proof Sets in IRAs every year, which is where a lot of the demand for the sets come from."
Since some of these clients are already paying $2,500/oz - $2,800/oz for generic proof gold (as far as I know and I assume you know as much), why in the world would they want to bother with 2012 proof gold? Do they start to educate their clients that they should pay $3,000 - $3,500+/oz for the "better dates", or just keep selling 1986 and 1987, etc. for $2,500-$2,800/oz (making great money) and not worry about 2012's? I know one thing ... if I was getting $2,500 - $2,800/oz for generic proof gold from customers (a concept I have no personal interest in pursuing by the way), I wouldn't even pay attention to 2012 proof gold unless it showed up as generics in one of my buys.
Back to my point about SSB $5's ... yes, I know you like them as I like them, BUT the low mintage is meaningless unless and until a whole lot of people like us start to like them at sub $600/coin and the coins move up as many people see just how good the mintage is at sub-7,000 (after returns are calculated). If your point is 2012 proof gold can be hyped and promoted to the uninformed who will start to pay big premiums for the date, then obviously the coins have a chance for that reason. That said, IT IS MY PERSONAL OPINION THAT 2012 PROOF GOLD MINTAGES ARE NOT ALL THAT LOW as will be proven in the next couple years. Stay tuned my friend!
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
"The problem is, the buyer of that hoard simply does not believe anyone cares about the First spouses and the money would be better spent on newer fresher material."
And, he may well prove to be right! For example, he may have bought 2012 proof gold and cash out big time in a year or two! : And, I understand these markets can be "thinly traded", but there was more than one board member that also was buying raw proof Buchanans on ebay and elsewhere around $1,300 - $1,400/coin at the height of the "hype" here and elsewhere. Now don't get me wrong ... I like the Buchanan proof Liberty very much ... my point is I liked (2) Buchanan MS coins even better at the time.
And, I personally like a number of coins much better than the 2012 proof gold today. That said, I am prepared to state "you were right" on the 2012 proof gold if and when that becomes warranted. And, thanks to everyone involved in discussing coins like this whether you agree with me, or think I am "out to lunch". I am here to learn like everyone else. I personally overestimated the future excitement level about the 2006 Rev Proof Gold 10,000 mintage type coin and it cost me dearly (by buying way too many in 2006 and losing the opportunity cost for other things). I have avoided most mistakes with proof gold since that time. But, could this be my next proof gold mistake in the past 5 years or so (this time not buying) ... I absolutely believe that is certainly possible... as Goldman86 is no "spring chicken".
Yep, once again, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Mitch and Danny: Your guy's disagreement makes a very educational discussion (which is rarely true on a public forum). It'll be interesting to see how it play's out.
But, could this be my next proof gold mistake in the past 5 years or so (this time not buying) ... I absolutely believe that is certainly possible... as Goldman86 is no "spring chicken".
Yep, once again, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin >>
Oh I doubt you will be kicking yourself too much even if it does do ok. I suspect there will be plenty of interesting things coming down the track to keep your mind off of a minor lost opportunity today.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
The 2012 Hawaii "P" 5 oz. silver ATB coin has sold out with a reported mintage of 14,863. It is selling on eBay for around $600.
The Chaco, Acadia and Denali counterparts all have lower sales totals to date and are still available from the Mint for $230 each.
Hmmm . . . >>
I noticed that too -- it's going the way of the Hot Spring NP1 when it came out. It remains a premium coin in value even though the following ATB mintages were comparable. El Yunque-S Mint quarter rolls are still a high premium above the rest, with comparable mintages. Seems like the first sellout of a annual series takes the prize.
That said, I did pick up a few Acadia and Denali pucks, since they will sell out very soon.
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Just looked at some completed Burnished 1/2 oz gold eagles ebay sales in the last two months: 2006 w raw : $1,238 2008 w PCGS MS70: $1,595 2007 w NGC ER MS69: $1,625 2008 w raw : $1,499 2006 w NGC MS70 : $1,450 2006 w NGC MS70 : $1,425 2006 w NGC MS70 : $1,395 2006 w NGC MS70 : $1,299 2006 w PCGS MS70 : $1,415 2008 w raw : $1,081 2007 w raw : $1,295 2008 w NGC MS69 : $1,129 2006 w NGC MS70 : $1,525
It looks like the 2006 and 2008 are doing quite well even with ~15,000 mintage. If the mint were to sell Burnish 1/2 oz eagle today, the price would have been ~ $980. It means those 1/2 oz burnish eagles were better buy than their bullion 1/2 eagles counterparts.
Jmski52 - Yep ... as I mentioned before, the 07-W gold coins generally do not trade at $1,675 for raw pieces as the sheet suggests. I am not surprised to see $1,727 though for an early release MS70.
MiilesWaits/Weather11am & others. I have had a number of PM exchanges about the 2012 proof gold and other moderns. I am in agreement that should the coins get "promoted" this year, that will likely lead to higher prices, which might even hold up down the road. And, in my opinion, that is exactly what it would take to move the proof gold. My comments over the past couple days assume a "level playing field" for the various 2012 moderns out there that are often discussed here and I am choosing between as everyone else is. Obviously, if the field should become "unlevel", the proof gold might rise beyond what I expected (and the same may be true for any "promoted" 2012 product).
It should be interesting over the next year for those coins as well as many other US mint products.
As always, just my 2 cents. Wondercoin
Edited to add ... Revoldog - A price like "2006 w NGC MS70 : $1,299" is down about 30% from where the coins had been a few years ago even when gold was about $1,000 or so an oz. So, for one closely tracking that particular coin, over the last roughly 30% up move in gold, that particular coin has fallen off about 30%. A number of reasons why that is the case.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
uncirc. burnished W AGEs will always be in demand due to limited issue in limited numbers. Anyone buying AGEs as an investment should start with these, preferably graded.
Collector base of a particular series determines success of lower mintage modern coins. For this reason modern gold commemoratives, including spouses, are not drawing prices one would expect.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I think discussion like what my brother and Mitch had are very good for everyone and is something we have sorely been missing since Eric either had a kid or decided to jump ship. That said we are all big boys and girls and make our own decisions and have to live with their consequences. When you see information presented I would just remind everyone to always verify and form your own opinions.
The 2012 proof gold eagles are practically the highest mintage of the collector gold coins that the mint sold last year.
The 1 ounce at 24,000 mintage is way too high to have much of an impact, and that values about half of the 4 coin set.
I love 1/10 gold but 25,000 is also very high for the 1/10. However a comparison to the 1/10 2006 to 2008 1/10 w unc gold might be good, and checking prices the 2006 w $5 unc does not sell for enough to matter. The 2008 w at 12,500 mintage is doing better so that seems to be a better range. I would think it shows you need about 16,000 for a mintage on the 2012 proof 1/10 and this one is way over that.
The 1/4 and 1/2 coins are interesting in that those mintages are close to the 2008 gold buffalo proof numbers. Those buffalo coins though as a 1 year issue are much more in demand so I am not sure even these will be as spectacular.
Anyway this is why I also passed on these coins, plus you have the 2013 coins and later years to deal with. If the mint had announced this was the last year for this design I would have bought in as these would be the keys and could do well. But I am expecting equal to lower mintages for 2013 and the numbers don't add up enough when you have other coins with more potential.
PS The final nail in the coffin is the 2012 W unc $50 gold eagle at 6100 mintage. That is so dreadfully low it is amazing how much potential that coin has and any more that fall lower. This is almost spouse gold unc low mintages here for 1 ounce gold.
Good luck to those buying in on 2012 proof gold eagles, I may be wrong and anything can happen but the numbers aren't low enough I think at this point. It is like riding a roller coaster downhill at this point, you can't get off once you get in and have to pray there is another hill to climb after the bottom.
Well, despite the low mintage on the 2012 W Burnished 1ozer, it seems there was a bigger parade for the 2011W's which sold out in Jan of 2012. That is at least if we look at post count, content, and subsequent rise in price. IIRC, the 2011 w's peaked in and around 80 days post sell out with numbers in and around 4K to 4.5K.
The 2012's seem to have stalled out in and around 3.3K, now 3 months post sellout, and overall the thread seemed to lack the excitement of the 2011 W sellout.
Thank you all for contributing to this discussion - it certainly helps to understand the thought process, exchange ideas and come to individual conclusions. Obviously everybody also has different goals in this game. While 2012 Proofs most likely will not double your money in 3 months in my opinion they have a decent chance to earn 25%-50% return within a year. For some people including myself this may be a well received outcome
There has been significant demand from wholesalers and marketers for the 2012 Proof Gold Eagles that I have seen so far. I have 1 set in hand and a bunch on order that I am hoping gets filled by the mint, but I won't know for a while. That said, if anyone has any information on people holding a number of these sets, I would be interested in knowing where I could get my greasy hands on a few.
And I have MANY MANY references
Whoever brought up the 2012w $50 gold eagles is dead on. That coins long term potential I believe is moon money. I ordered and have none of those and still am kicking myself for missing that one!!! Mitch --- I was wrong on those buddy!!!
I do appreciate the discussions we have on this forum and want every to know that my statements are made in good fun and humor!!!
I think these may end up "Flavor of the Month", which is ideal for a flip. But long term they will be compared to the demand for the 2013 and 2014. I'm not really sure how most collectors can afford these anyway. If they buy the 2012 even at mint prices that's money spent that cannot be spent on the 2013s. That's the issue with a lot of different low mintage products competing against each other for collectors' dollars.
Comments
<< <i>"Nice, low mintage keys!"
And virtually no one will care I suspect.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin >>
<< <i>Very funny, but wholesale helpful, stuff Danny!
I agree with many of you here. As painful as it may be for the search of the next holy grail of low mintage Mint Lottery Offerings, it didn't happen in 2012 for me.
I miss the excitement of the first pucks, the 2008-2007' SAE's, Anniversary Sets (the Real ones), and the slow-simmering UHR.
Miles >>
Very well stated Miles, as usual. I too miss the excitement of those days.
Depending on what happens with the 2013 100th Buff. anniversary we may see some times like those this year.
<< <i>I know the spouse numbers are lower but the collector base is so much smaller. I would say there are 6x more proof eagle collectors as spouse collectors easily. With the spouses they all are pretty much getting lumped together. On the half here we are talking about a 40% beat of the prior lowest mintage proof eagle. Will people notice that? I am betting yes. If these numbers are correct we are talking about the second lowest half eagle ever (2007 w burnished $25 is first). It's a proof coin which I think everyone agrees is better than a non proof coin as far as looks are concerned. I think the telemarketers and tv coin shows eat this up. Of course I could be wrong but I am not putting your money on the line, so I am ok with that. And with the recovery gaining strength and my inside source at the mint saying they will accept EBT cards soon, this is a lock
Your facts are spot on.
That said, re: proofs vs uncs, it's interesting how well the 2011 W $50 AGE Unc did when it appeared to be the lowest mintage, and then the 2012 W when it came in lower. For that matter, how about the 2008 W $10 AGE Unc. - that was an amazing score considering the low initial cost.
The Hawaii 'P' 5oz is another interesting coin. I think a bunch of the 2012 5oz'ers will come in around 15K. If you look at the 1996 olympic coins with similar mintages they can be had for around $200 to $250 in OGP or MS69, so I don't think longer term the 5oz'ers will be able to have much premium over their silver value. Short term some people are going nuts. There's a Hawaii at $575 OGP on ebay as I write this.
<< <i>The AGE's are definately more popular than the spouses. Maybe the best thing that can be said of the 2012 AGE proofs is they would decrease in value less than other "common" proofs if gold goes down in price.
The Hawaii 'P' 5oz is another interesting coin. I think a bunch of the 2012 5oz'ers will come in around 15K. If you look at the 1996 olympic coins with similar mintages they can be had for around $200 to $250 in OGP or MS69, so I don't think longer term the 5oz'ers will be able to have much premium over their silver value. Short term some people are going nuts. There's a Hawaii at $575 OGP on ebay as I write this. >>
Wow, two of them sold raw for $589.99 just yesterday.
I buy one of each just because I like the set. I have not been following prices as I didn't buy them to sell. Pretty cool. Of course, likely that lower mintages will come later.
Premiums for bullion common-date gold and silver eagles may increase during times of rationing by the Mint, but if gold doubles, numismatic premiums will go down for the better dates.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i><< If gold doubles it will be because of great demand. Premiums should increase with such demand. ASE demand recently created a premium increase. >>
Premiums for bullion common-date gold and silver eagles may increase during times of rationing by the Mint, but if gold doubles, numismatic premiums will go down for the better dates. >>
If Gold Bullion Doubles I will be happy to sell my Gold Eagles for Bullion Value.
12919/22602= 57.2%
That my friends is what you call a serious key. It also means that the 2012 proof gold eagle is the 2nd lowest minted half in any finish (with the 2007 w $25 burnished first). I know there are doubters but I think a beat like that will get the attention of collectors and telemarketers alike. I won't guess what they are worth but if you find one near mint issue price, I would definitely buy it.
12919/22602= 57.2%
That my friends is what you call a serious key. It also means that the 2012 proof gold eagle is the 2nd lowest minted half in any finish (with the 2007 w $25 burnished first).
I tend to agree with your assessment, but as usual we will have to see what the market thinks about it. One added point is that there are probably more active collectors of the Proofs. There is the usual question about why there were so few sales during the time that the coin was being offered by the Mint.
If the economy is causing collectors to drop out due to a lack of disposable income, then they will all have to ride the same wave along with gold prices, for better or worse. Still, a nice deep key is always a good starting point.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Looks like the final sales numbers are out on the 2012 proof gold eagle sets. According to mint news blog, the 2012 proof half has a total mintage 12919 compared to the prior proof half low in 2008 of 22,602.
12919/22602= 57.2%
That my friends is what you call a serious key. It also means that the 2012 proof gold eagle is the 2nd lowest minted half in any finish (with the 2007 w $25 burnished first). I know there are doubters but I think a beat like that will get the attention of collectors and telemarketers alike. I won't guess what they are worth but if you find one near mint issue price, I would definitely buy it. >>
PR/PF70's should initially retail for about $2K and then drop off.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
That's about what I would expect as well.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i><< If gold doubles it will be because of great demand. Premiums should increase with such demand. ASE demand recently created a premium increase. >>
Premiums for bullion common-date gold and silver eagles may increase during times of rationing by the Mint, but if gold doubles, numismatic premiums will go down for the better dates. >>
If Gold Bullion Doubles I will be happy to sell my Gold Eagles for Bullion Value.
So will many other people, which is why premiums on the better dates will continue to drop if the gold price rises.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i><< If gold doubles it will be because of great demand. Premiums should increase with such demand. ASE demand recently created a premium increase. >>
Premiums for bullion common-date gold and silver eagles may increase during times of rationing by the Mint, but if gold doubles, numismatic premiums will go down for the better dates. >>
If Gold Bullion Doubles I will be happy to sell my Gold Eagles for Bullion Value.
So will many other people, which is why premiums on the better dates will continue to drop if the gold price rises. >>
The premium over spot percentage wise may drop if gold rises, but the premium ( in Dollars ) over original USmint prices
that most on this message board paid will grow, Maybe not as fast as bullion grows but it will increase in value. Bottom line
if you own a key, the price it goes for right now will not go down as long as bullion is rising. However if a new key is born!
Look Out Belowwwwwww.
2012 Proof gold will be a waste of time for those who see big things coming from these coins and believe they are serious keys.
First, when the 2001 was thought to be a "serious key", it went down the drain. Second, when 2008 was thought to be a "serious key", it went down the drain.
I predict 2012 proof gold will be the next year to go down the drain especially when we see the mintage figures on 2013 and 2014 proof gold.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
I will be a happy camper if they get a premium of 40-60% over melt.
<< <i>I don't anticipate anything good happening with the 2012 1/2 over the medium to long term. In the short term maybe, but I'd rather gamble on 2013 buffaloes and anything platinum, especially proof eagles.
The 2012 Alice Paul uncirculated, at reported sales of 2250 this week, is approaching the territory inhabited by the 2011 Lucy Hayes and Lucretia Garfield.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Interesting observation. Do you think that the Mint alters their production planning in response to sales demand between each issue? It seems so from year to year.
But in the case of the 2012 Spouses, they left them until late in the year and then they had problems with metal flow. (Which seems kinda strange too, since they've been in production for 5 years now). They finally ran all of the 2012 Spouses within a fairly short window, so it seems unlikely to me that they would have made many adjustments for demand between batches.
Will the initial sellout be representative of all of the 2012 issues, and when do you think it's coming?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>You heard it hear first ...
2012 Proof gold will be a waste of time for those who see big things coming from these coins and believe they are serious keys.
First, when the 2001 was thought to be a "serious key", it went down the drain. Second, when 2008 was thought to be a "serious key", it went down the drain.
I predict 2012 proof gold will be the next year to go down the drain especially when we see the mintage figures on 2013 and 2014 proof gold.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin >>
Do you think the 2013 Buffalos will have a negative / draining impact on the value of the 2008 Buffalos?
I have to disagree with you here. The 2008 proof eagles mintages were high in comparison to the 2006-2008 burnished gold eagles. That's not the case with the 2012 Proof Gold Eagles. The 2012 Proof Gold Eagle Half has the 2nd lowest amount of coins in the $25 gold denomination series and the $10 is the 3rd lowest in its class.
2007w Burnished $25 Gold - Greysheets for - $1,675 (11,458 coins)
2012 w $25 Gold Proof - ? (12919 coins)
2006/8 w $25 gold - 1,450/1,400 (15164/15682 Coins)
2008w $10 - $1400 (8,883)
2007w $10 - $700 (12,786)
2012 w $10 Gold Proof - ? (13,926)
2006 w $10 - $800 (15,188)
Let's try to use actual numbers to try and prove points, not I have a feeling.
These coins should and will have a quick pop in price and long term have very good potential. A large portion of the Gold Eagle sets will be locked away in IRAs, which means the circulating population could in fact be the lowest numbers for each group. Look at the facts, there is a large collector base for these sets and now the key coin has been identified, and its by a large percent!!!
Mr wondercoin, if you are not a believer of these sets and have any for sale, I WOULD BE ECSTATIC to take them off your hands and the current going market rate!!!!
You also cite Greysheet (wholesale?) pricing on other gold coins ... pricing that is simply outdated I believe. For example, do you know anywhere that I can get "$1,450" on a 2006-W $25 gold eagle right now? Or, even $1,675 on the 2007-W $25 Gold Eagle. If you do, please send me a PM and I can lock you up on a small group of them this week.
I am not always right, nor are you. I remember when Proof Buchanans were selling for nearly 2x the price of MS Buchanans and many here were touting the proofs as the big winner on the boards. I came out on a thread and said that I was buying up the MS Buchanan coins as I thought the proofs made no sense at levels above the MS coins. Well, about a year later now, the MS Buchanan sell for MORE than the proofs.
Again, let's see this time next year how the 2012 proof gold has performed. I'll be the first one to tell you that you were right when, and if, the coins sell for a sizeable premum over mint issue price unrelated to a rising gold spot. And, hopefully, you will do the same if I turned out to be right. If I am wrong, it won't be the first time.
Wondercoin
Thanks for the information. Looks promising!
One question regarding the IRA's. Is it a fact or is it just speculations that the IRA's is holding a substantial amount of proof gold eagles?
When the US Mint suspended proof gold eagle in 2009, all proof gold eagle was trading at a premium in 2010 (before the release of 2010 proof gold eagle). Some said it was due to IRA demand. Do you know if it was true from a dealer's prospective?
<< <i>Hi Goldman86,
Thanks for the information. Looks promising!
One question regarding the IRA's. Is it a fact or is it just speculations that the IRA's is holding a substantial amount of proof gold eagles?
When the US Mint suspended proof gold eagle in 2009, all proof gold eagle was trading at a premium in 2010 (before the release of 2010 proof gold eagle). Some said it was due to IRA demand. Do you know if it was the true from a dealer's prospective? >>
I know of no one putting gold eagle proofs into an IRA. Is anyone here doing so? Most who have done research on bullion IRAs wouldn't dare tie their gold up for that long; bull market will most likely reverse during the wait. Those that are stacking in an IRA are doing so with cheaper gold. Proofs are an expensive way to accumulate gold in an IRA.
As I stated earlier 2012 W $25 AGEs should peak this year at no more than $2K and then drop back off. Just not that many proof collectors; speculators will temporarily drive them up.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Wondercoin >>
These may take a couple of years to see what will happen. If the 13's are made in somewhat higher quantities then I think you will see a decent appreciation.
Fair enough. Obviously, if the 13's are made in somewhat lower quantities, we can at least agree 2013's were the better buy!
Remember, mintages are not all that matter. My opinion takes into account more than just bald mintage figures. If mintages were all that mattered, the 7,000 mintage SSB $5 Gold Commem wouldn't be trading at $575 right now but closer to $1,250 - $1,500 while the CVC with roughly the same mintage is trading at $1,500-$2,000... give or take, and has a price guide value of $3,000 in MS69! Think about it.
Wondercoin
My observation it is possible but not likely. In my mind 2011 Proof AGEs were overproduced and were selling all the way till late 2012 along with 2012-dated Proofs.
I guess USM had a good idea how many 2011 were still in stock going into 2012 production and they consciously chose to strike less of 2012 dated.
Now we're in the very beginning of 2013 and all previous dates are sold out before 2013-dated striking begins. It is very likely they will strike more 2013 than 2012
Just my opinion backed with some skin in the game
That being said, the 2012-Ws are Proofs and I suspect that they are a different animal in terms of the collector base. We shall see, and I don't expect it to take longer than a year before we know the trend. I'm not at all sorry that I bought some.
I knew it would happen.
I believe the proof Buchanan's are only selling cheaper than the UNCs right now because there is one group that held a very large quantity of that particular coin. That holder has more or less flooded the market because they simply want out of their position
In regards to Proof Gold sets being put in IRAs, there are companies that push their clients toward putting Gold Proof Sets in IRAs every year, which is where a lot of the demand for the sets come from. That being said, it is not a strategy I would advise
I currently own 1 2012 proof gold Eagle set, but am trying to accumulate a number of these sets ASAP. The upside is way to good compared to the downside. Indeed, I could have ordered sets from the mint last week, but I didn't realize they would sell out...had I known, I would have bought from them...
If a person bought the 2012 proof Gold Eagle sets now, they could follow the mint sales figures next year and make a more educated decision about next years numbers at that time. If the mintage looks like it will surpass the 2012 mintages, then they keep them, if the mintage of 2013 is lower, they can sell out of their position at that time. If you have none on hand though, you may have missed the boat.
Just my 2 cents, but the numbers on the proof Gold eagle half is very exciting...
I am not always correct and have never said as much.
About the SSBs ... I actually think they are good buy at the price they are selling at, and recently purchased a few!!!
I won't name drop, but they are legitimate major players.
Since some of these clients are already paying $2,500/oz - $2,800/oz for generic proof gold (as far as I know and I assume you know as much), why in the world would they want to bother with 2012 proof gold? Do they start to educate their clients that they should pay $3,000 - $3,500+/oz for the "better dates", or just keep selling 1986 and 1987, etc. for $2,500-$2,800/oz (making great money) and not worry about 2012's? I know one thing ... if I was getting $2,500 - $2,800/oz for generic proof gold from customers (a concept I have no personal interest in pursuing by the way), I wouldn't even pay attention to 2012 proof gold unless it showed up as generics in one of my buys.
Back to my point about SSB $5's ... yes, I know you like them as I like them, BUT the low mintage is meaningless unless and until a whole lot of people like us start to like them at sub $600/coin and the coins move up as many people see just how good the mintage is at sub-7,000 (after returns are calculated). If your point is 2012 proof gold can be hyped and promoted to the uninformed who will start to pay big premiums for the date, then obviously the coins have a chance for that reason. That said, IT IS MY PERSONAL OPINION THAT 2012 PROOF GOLD MINTAGES ARE NOT ALL THAT LOW as will be proven in the next couple years. Stay tuned my friend!
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
And, he may well prove to be right! For example, he may have bought 2012 proof gold and cash out big time in a year or two!
:
And, I understand these markets can be "thinly traded", but there was more than one board member that also was buying raw proof Buchanans on ebay and elsewhere around $1,300 - $1,400/coin at the height of the "hype" here and elsewhere. Now don't get me wrong ... I like the Buchanan proof Liberty very much ... my point is I liked (2) Buchanan MS coins even better at the time.
And, I personally like a number of coins much better than the 2012 proof gold today. That said, I am prepared to state "you were right" on the 2012 proof gold if and when that becomes warranted. And, thanks to everyone involved in discussing coins like this whether you agree with me, or think I am "out to lunch". I am here to learn like everyone else. I personally overestimated the future excitement level about the 2006 Rev Proof Gold 10,000 mintage type coin and it cost me dearly (by buying way too many in 2006 and losing the opportunity cost for other things). I have avoided most mistakes with proof gold since that time. But, could this be my next proof gold mistake in the past 5 years or so (this time not buying) ... I absolutely believe that is certainly possible... as Goldman86 is no "spring chicken".
Yep, once again, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
The 2012 Hawaii "P" 5 oz. silver ATB coin has sold out with a reported mintage of 14,863. It is selling on eBay for around $600.
The Chaco, Acadia and Denali counterparts all have lower sales totals to date and are still available from the Mint for $230 each.
Hmmm . . .
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Yep, once again, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin >>
Oh I doubt you will be kicking yourself too much even if it does do ok. I suspect there will be plenty of interesting things coming down the track to keep your mind off of a minor lost opportunity today.
<< <i>Alert (for what it's worth):
The 2012 Hawaii "P" 5 oz. silver ATB coin has sold out with a reported mintage of 14,863. It is selling on eBay for around $600.
The Chaco, Acadia and Denali counterparts all have lower sales totals to date and are still available from the Mint for $230 each.
Hmmm . . . >>
I noticed that too -- it's going the way of the Hot Spring NP1 when it came out. It remains a premium coin in value even though the following ATB mintages were comparable. El Yunque-S Mint quarter rolls are still a high premium above the rest, with comparable mintages. Seems like the first sellout of a annual series takes the prize.
That said, I did pick up a few Acadia and Denali pucks, since they will sell out very soon.
One is closing in about 7 minutes, NGC MS-70 ER @ $1,727.52 plus $15.00 S&H - key for the 1/2 oz. denomination
Added: That is where it finished.
I knew it would happen.
2006 w raw : $1,238
2008 w PCGS MS70: $1,595
2007 w NGC ER MS69: $1,625
2008 w raw : $1,499
2006 w NGC MS70 : $1,450
2006 w NGC MS70 : $1,425
2006 w NGC MS70 : $1,395
2006 w NGC MS70 : $1,299
2006 w PCGS MS70 : $1,415
2008 w raw : $1,081
2007 w raw : $1,295
2008 w NGC MS69 : $1,129
2006 w NGC MS70 : $1,525
It looks like the 2006 and 2008 are doing quite well even with ~15,000 mintage.
If the mint were to sell Burnish 1/2 oz eagle today, the price would have been ~ $980. It means those 1/2 oz burnish eagles were better buy than their bullion 1/2 eagles counterparts.
MiilesWaits/Weather11am & others. I have had a number of PM exchanges about the 2012 proof gold and other moderns. I am in agreement that should the coins get "promoted" this year, that will likely lead to higher prices, which might even hold up down the road. And, in my opinion, that is exactly what it would take to move the proof gold. My comments over the past couple days assume a "level playing field" for the various 2012 moderns out there that are often discussed here and I am choosing between as everyone else is. Obviously, if the field should become "unlevel", the proof gold might rise beyond what I expected (and the same may be true for any "promoted" 2012 product).
It should be interesting over the next year for those coins as well as many other US mint products.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Edited to add ... Revoldog - A price like "2006 w NGC MS70 : $1,299" is down about 30% from where the coins had been a few years ago even when gold was about $1,000 or so an oz. So, for one closely tracking that particular coin, over the last roughly 30% up move in gold, that particular coin has fallen off about 30%. A number of reasons why that is the case.
<< <i>Thank you Mitch and Danny for the face to Face. It helps me with my future buy or not buy decisions! >>
Hell yes I agree 100%, good stuff ty.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Collector base of a particular series determines success of lower mintage modern coins. For this reason modern gold commemoratives, including spouses, are not drawing prices one would expect.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The 1 ounce at 24,000 mintage is way too high to have much of an impact, and that values about half of the 4 coin set.
I love 1/10 gold but 25,000 is also very high for the 1/10. However a comparison to the 1/10 2006 to 2008 1/10 w unc gold might be good, and checking prices the 2006 w $5 unc does not sell for enough to matter. The 2008 w at 12,500 mintage is doing better so that seems to be a better range. I would think it shows you need about 16,000 for a mintage on the 2012 proof 1/10 and this one is way over that.
The 1/4 and 1/2 coins are interesting in that those mintages are close to the 2008 gold buffalo proof numbers. Those buffalo coins though as a 1 year issue are much more in demand so I am not sure even these will be as spectacular.
Anyway this is why I also passed on these coins, plus you have the 2013 coins and later years to deal with. If the mint had announced this was the last year for this design I would have bought in as these would be the keys and could do well. But I am expecting equal to lower mintages for 2013 and the numbers don't add up enough when you have other coins with more potential.
PS The final nail in the coffin is the 2012 W unc $50 gold eagle at 6100 mintage. That is so dreadfully low it is amazing how much potential that coin has and any more that fall lower. This is almost spouse gold unc low mintages here for 1 ounce gold.
Good luck to those buying in on 2012 proof gold eagles, I may be wrong and anything can happen but the numbers aren't low enough I think at this point. It is like riding a roller coaster downhill at this point, you can't get off once you get in and have to pray there is another hill to climb after the bottom.
The 2012's seem to have stalled out in and around 3.3K, now 3 months post sellout, and overall the thread seemed to lack the excitement of the 2011 W sellout.
The 2011 W parade post count 320
2012 W snooze thread post count 96
Maybe it's just to early to tell how the 2012's will fare.
And I have MANY MANY references
Whoever brought up the 2012w $50 gold eagles is dead on. That coins long term potential I believe is moon money. I ordered and have none of those and still am kicking myself for missing that one!!! Mitch --- I was wrong on those buddy!!!
I do appreciate the discussions we have on this forum and want every to know that my statements are made in good fun and humor!!!
Do you have a rough idea of the wholesale bid/ask price for the 2012 w gold eagle proof set?