<< <i>I cancelled my order and bought a Bushmaster and a bunch of accessories instead. >>
I agree, you do need a bushmaster to protect the gold!! I have been diverting some coin money also to buy select weapons, although they are much harder to hide from wifey.
<< <i>Some comparisons can be made with the UNC vs Proof gold Buffaloes of 2008, the Proof must be in greater demand. >>
We may even see this with the MOH and Army commemoratives. Though the proofs have out sold the UNC prior to the increase in gold, the buying frenzy of the UNC's may decrease future demand when compared to the proofs.
With the First Strike window closed (though there may still be eligible cons out there), there is currently only 29 DC PR70 MOH coins out there (43 Army). I can see some future potential in those 29 proofs and maybe even the 43 Army coins. >>
Do you think 50 years from now collectors will wonder what Kool-Aid we were drinking to pay anything exrtra for "first strike" ?
<< <i> I have been diverting some coin money also to buy select weapons, although they are much harder to hide from wifey. >>
Tell me about it!
As for the First Strike thingy, it really doesn't matter to me personally but the history and profit is there. No Kool Aid for me but there is a demand for them. It has been debated several times here but the bottom line is they have made me money. They sell for more than the non-First Strike.
<< <i>Some comparisons can be made with the UNC vs Proof gold Buffaloes of 2008, the Proof must be in greater demand. >>
We may even see this with the MOH and Army commemoratives. Though the proofs have out sold the UNC prior to the increase in gold, the buying frenzy of the UNC's may decrease future demand when compared to the proofs.
With the First Strike window closed (though there may still be eligible cons out there), there is currently only 29 DC PR70 MOH coins out there (43 Army). I can see some future potential in those 29 proofs and maybe even the 43 Army coins. >>
Do you think 50 years from now collectors will wonder what Kool-Aid we were drinking to pay anything exrtra for "first strike" ? >>
FINAL FINAL numbers on many of the Gold Spouses will be coming at the end of September.
IMO, some of those numbers will surprise many on these boards. Sales numbers from the US Mint are about as good as our current inflation statistics released by our trusted Government. Don't bank on them at all.
<< <i>FINAL FINAL numbers on many of the Gold Spouses will be coming at the end of September.
IMO, some of those numbers will surprise many on these boards. Sales numbers from the US Mint are about as good as our current inflation statistics released by our trusted Government. Don't bank on them at all. >>
<< <i>Question for gang ... is there any logical reason why (2) MOH $5 gold coins (roughly 1/2 oz. of gold) with close to a 6,500 mintage already (and possibly going up from there) should be worth more than say a 1/2 oz. Buchanan $10 Liberty MS with an even lower mintage and part of the prized Liberty Unc. series? Each sells for about the same as the other right now (i.e. -2- MOH vs. -1- Buchanan)? Thoughts?
Wondercoin >>
The Buchanan MS has the second highest mintage in the Liberty series, substantially higher than the Jackson and Van Buren. So it's not a stopper for anyone attempting to complete the set of 4. Also, the non-Spouse gold commems are more widely collected than the spouses - the key Jackie Robinson unc. is worth considerably more than several spouses with lower mintages.
I have another question for the gang: why is the 2007-W burnished half-ounce Gold Eagle (mintage 11.4K) worth 5 times as much as the 2008-W 1/10 ounce burnished Gold Eagle (mintage 12.6K). Both are the keys to their respective denominations, but I would think that the 1/10 ounce would be much more popular with collectors due to the affordability of a complete set. (For comparison, there are more than 3 times as many 1/10 ounce registry sets as there are half-ounce registry sets.) >>
Because one is being promoted and the other is not.
It may also be that there are far more people who admire and want to honor our service men and women then there are who know we had a president named Bucannan much less that he didn't have a spouse.
Price is not just a product of mintaage and base metal content, rather it is a product of demand, mintage and base metal content.
Never, ever underestimate that demand factor.
Just look at UHR with 100K+ mintage...................
I have another question for the gang: why is the 2007-W burnished half-ounce Gold Eagle (mintage 11.4K) worth 5 times as much as the 2008-W 1/10 ounce burnished Gold Eagle (mintage 12.6K).
Some coins have been "in play" for years, while others have not been "in play" ever. Those coins not in play could have exact same gold content and exact same mintage and still not have virtually any numismatic premium whatsoever at this time.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>Some coins have been "in play" for years, while others have not been "in play" ever. Those coins not in play could have exact same gold content and exact same mintage and still not have virtually any numismatic premium whatsoever at this time.
Wondercoin >>
Would you cite an example?
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Sure... consider the 2002 MS SLC $5 gold commem with its roughly 10,600 mintage which is worth close to melt (one recently sold on the BST board for melt as I recall and another for the high $400's on ebay recently) as compared to a 1995 $5 MS Stadium with nearly the identical mintage and the exact amount of gold, but is worth many multiples of the SLC coin. And, I'll buy every MS stadium offered to me today at multiples of the typical SLC $5 price even though both coins are near identical mintage coins with identical gold content.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
7/8 those Final Final must be for the 2010 coins, or is the mint revising things yet again. I see a couple of the unc could push under Julia Tyler perhaps, i guess you are holding out for the proof Buchs.
Kind of on the same note I visited a major b&M last weekend and saw multiple melt buckets chock full of modern silver commem dollars. Talked with an employee and he said there was plenty more where that came from, and they do indeed get melted.
<< <i>Sure... consider the 2002 MS SLC $5 gold commem with its roughly 10,600 mintage which is worth close to melt (one recently sold on the BST board for melt as I recall and another for the high $400's on ebay recently) as compared to a 1995 $5 MS Stadium with nearly the identical mintage and the exact amount of gold, but is worth many multiples of the SLC coin. And, I'll buy every MS stadium offered to me today at multiples of the typical SLC $5 price even though both coins are near identical mintage coins with identical gold content.
Wondercoin >>
That is an interesting situation. Must be that mysterious factor-x.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>Sure... consider the 2002 MS SLC $5 gold commem with its roughly 10,600 mintage which is worth close to melt (one recently sold on the BST board for melt as I recall and another for the high $400's on ebay recently) as compared to a 1995 $5 MS Stadium with nearly the identical mintage and the exact amount of gold, but is worth many multiples of the SLC coin. And, I'll buy every MS stadium offered to me today at multiples of the typical SLC $5 price even though both coins are near identical mintage coins with identical gold content. >>
Another example is the 2003 $10 gold commem unc first flight. Mintage is only 10,003 yet greysheet bid is around melt.
<< <i>Sure... consider the 2002 MS SLC $5 gold commem with its roughly 10,600 mintage which is worth close to melt (one recently sold on the BST board for melt as I recall and another for the high $400's on ebay recently) as compared to a 1995 $5 MS Stadium with nearly the identical mintage and the exact amount of gold, but is worth many multiples of the SLC coin. And, I'll buy every MS stadium offered to me today at multiples of the typical SLC $5 price even though both coins are near identical mintage coins with identical gold content.
Wondercoin >>
That is an interesting situation. Must be that mysterious factor-x. >>
Cannot argue with that. Ultimately it is supply and demand. Sometimes there can even be a temporary supply shortage with higher mintage coins that acts to distort the normal price structure for a time. Often caused by promotion. I suppose some of the state quarters like Tennessee and Illinois were examples of this. Some coins do puzzle me that they have what seems like distorted valuations for a relative long time. I suppose inertia carries these along.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I don't follow silver commems as much as gold and plat.
Question for the gang: with all of the offerings out there now, the high prices and the bad economy, are there any no-brainer silver commems. on sale now?
<< <i>Question for the gang: with all of the offerings out there now, the high prices and the bad economy, are there any no-brainer silver commems. on sale now? >>
The uncirculated 1999 Yellowstone commemorative dollar. The mintage is a low 23,650 and it has a greysheet price of only $40.
<< <i>Question for the gang: with all of the offerings out there now, the high prices and the bad economy, are there any no-brainer silver commems. on sale now? >>
The uncirculated 1999 Yellowstone commemorative dollar. The mintage is a low 23,650 and it has a greysheet price of only $40. >>
<< <i>Sure... consider the 2002 MS SLC $5 gold commem with its roughly 10,600 mintage which is worth close to melt (one recently sold on the BST board for melt as I recall and another for the high $400's on ebay recently) as compared to a 1995 $5 MS Stadium with nearly the identical mintage and the exact amount of gold, but is worth many multiples of the SLC coin. And, I'll buy every MS stadium offered to me today at multiples of the typical SLC $5 price even though both coins are near identical mintage coins with identical gold content. Wondercoin >>
That is an interesting situation. Must be that mysterious factor-x. >>
That mysterious factor-x is called "DEMAND". >>
Which brings up the question, why are coins such as the 1995 $5 MS Stadium or the 2006-2008-W $10 and $25 Gold Eagles so highly in demand? I get it that they're being actively acquired by certain dealers, but who are their target clients? I would think that at current prices, the upside for these coins is limited and there is significant downside risk.
Which brings up the question, why are coins such as the 1995 $5 MS Stadium or the 2006-2008-W $10 and $25 Gold Eagles so highly in demand? I get it that they're being actively acquired by certain dealers, but who are their target clients?
I track these on ebay and demand seems to be strong & consistant. Since the design is the same as the regular issue coins, it looks like the burnished "W" AGEs are considered by many collectors as the keys in the AGE series because of their significantly lower mintages.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Which brings up the question, why are coins such as the 1995 $5 MS Stadium or the 2006-2008-W $10 and $25 Gold Eagles so highly in demand? I get it that they're being actively acquired by certain dealers, but who are their target clients?
I track these on ebay and demand seems to be strong & consistant. Since the design is the same as the regular issue coins, it looks like the burnished "W" AGEs are considered by many collectors as the keys in the AGE series because of their significantly lower mintages. >>
I would agree, except for two unexplained circumstances:
1) The 2006-W and 2007-W $10 Gold Eagles are bringing near-identical prices, even though the mintage of the 2006-W is considerably higher. Ditto for those two dates regarding the $25 Gold Eagle. If collector demand were driving these prices, the 2007-W coins would be bringing significantly higher prices than the 2006-W.
2) The "W" tenth-ounce $5 Gold Eagles are conspicuously *not* participating in this rally, even though they are more widely collected than the higher denominations. For example, the *key* 2008-W $5 (mintage 12,657) is selling for half the price of the *non-key* 2007-W $10 (mintage 12,766) despite its slightly lower mintage. Both coins are selling at well above bullion value, so that does not explain the discrepancy.
So the question remains, why are the "W" $10 and $25 burnished Gold Eagles and the 1995 (but not 2002) unc. Olympic gold coins bringing such hefty premiums compared to many of their equally scarce counterparts?
I picked up a $5 2008-W burnished AGE a little while back (I was not paying much attention to coins in 2008 unfortunately). I figured that they weren't much participating in the rally, were the key to the $5 AGE series, and that key status was probably not going to get beat anytime soon due to the fractional burnished pieces getting axed. The next highest mintage in the $5 AGE series is 10,000 pieces higher! I thought it was a good buy in my amateurish studies but maybe my thought-train is off kilter?
Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
1) The 2006-W and 2007-W $10 Gold Eagles are bringing near-identical prices, even though the mintage of the 2006-W is considerably higher.
The difference between the 1/4th oz. 2006-W (15,164 mintage) vs. the 1/4 oz. 2007-W (12,766 mintage) is the difference between two semi-keys, both of which are *significantly lower* in mintage than the previous key, the 1991 - which was not a very deep key (mintage 36,100). I just think that the absorption process is still ongoing for these denominations, and that the sub-10,000 key - the 1/4 oz 2008-W has overshadowed the two semi-keys pricewise for the time being, but in the process it has brought them along for the ride - at least part way along.
Ditto for those two dates regarding the $25 Gold Eagle.
The difference here is that the 1/2 oz. 2006-W (mintage 15,164) is a semi-key, but the 1/2 oz. 2007-W (mintage 11,455) is the bona fide key to the series. The previous key, the 1991 Unc had a significantly higher mintage of 24,100, and my observation is that prior to 2006 when the burnished "W" issues were introduced, the 1991 Unc had already been rising nicely for several years and this has helped to drag the new keys along into the higher price brackets more quickly than would have otherwise happened through absorption over time.
So the question remains, why are the "W" $10 and $25 burnished Gold Eagles................................................bringing such hefty premiums compared to many of their equally scarce counterparts?
The answer to the question as it regards the $10 and $25 "W" Gold Eagles is that there are no equally scarce counterparts to the "W" issues in terms of mintage. Except for the 1/4 oz. 2008-W, mintage hasn't seemed to affect pricing differentials as much, because the dispersal process isn't yet complete, in my opinion. The 1/4 oz. 2008-W was the first to react pricewise to a significant low mintage, and I expect the 1/2 oz. 2007-W to be the next one in this group to show some positive differential price increases (over its own semi-keys) due to its low mintage. Over time, I do think that we will see the mintage numbers affect pricing more so than now.
2) The "W" tenth-ounce $5 Gold Eagles are conspicuously *not* participating in this rally, even though they are more widely collected than the higher denominations. For example, the *key* 2008-W $5 (mintage 12,657) is selling for half the price of the *non-key* 2007-W $10 (mintage 12,766) despite its slightly lower mintage. Both coins are selling at well above bullion value, so that does not explain the discrepancy.
I wouldn't expect the premiums for 1/10 oz and 1/4 oz AGEs to be comparable because they are not the same series. The 2008-W $5 is selling for nice premiums above it's own competing semi-keys, so there is nothing inconsistant here. The burnished "W" AGEs sell for higher premiums than the burnished "W" platinum Eagles, in spite of the burnished "W" platinum Eagles having tiny mintages compared to the burnished AGEs. I know that gold is much more popular with collectors than is platinum, and this seems to corroborate it.
Pricing is a reflection of demand, and mintage both. I think that the 1/4 oz and 1/2 oz AGEs might just happen to be in the sweet spot for collector budgets. I know that I personally like the 1/4 oz and 1/2 oz coins better than the 1/10 oz coins, mainly because the 1/10 oz coins strike me as being a tad too small to appreciate.
I picked up a $5 2008-W burnished AGE a little while back (I was not paying much attention to coins in 2008 unfortunately). I figured that they weren't much participating in the rally, were the key to the $5 AGE series, and that key status was probably not going to get beat anytime soon due to the fractional burnished pieces getting axed. The next highest mintage in the $5 AGE series is 10,000 pieces higher! I thought it was a good buy but maybe my thought-train is off kilter?
Being the most affordable key in the most affordable AGE series is not a bad thing, especially with a mintage of 12,657. In terms of pricing leverage, that's comparable to the 2008-W 1/4 oz's mintage of 8,883.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
No reason to overthink these things. Certain coins have strong marketing behind them and others don't (and may never for years or decades to come). No better example than the burnished platinum coins that are exceedingly scarce (e.g. 2006-w $25 and $50) and have languished in price (if not dropped and dropped and dropped in the past few years) because the coins have yet to be properly "promoted". And, they might never get promoted as the coins are far too difficult to obtain in any meaningful quantity to properly promote. It all starts to make perfect sense when one looks at it objectively and not purely as a collector who ranks coins by mintage figures only.
On a side note, I own a few pattern coins from the 19th century where the US Mint produced fewer than 20 total specimens (and the coins are close to 125+ years old already)(REPEAT .... THE MINTAGE IS -20- COINS TOTAL) and are worth LESS than some of my modern coins with mintages of 35,000 or 40,000 coins. For those of you not familiar with pattern coins, see pages 358-361 of the 2012 Red Book.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Maybe I'm missing something, but are the 2006-2008-W $10 and $25 burnished Gold Eagles, along with the 1995-96 Olympic gold unc. $5, really being promoted to retail investors in a big way? If so, I haven't seen the ads.
The plats have been such a profound let-down for me. I think that I have nearly $9K in my 2006 W PCGS MS70FS burnished set. I can remember all of the hype at the time - the ads for this set at $11K in CW, etc.
Then there are the 2008 W plats. While they've done O.K., they have certainly not met my expectations. I thought that my 2008 W $50 APE PCGS PR70DCAM FS would be killer (rarest of the plats, pop of 24, the 26th rarest proof type coin since 1859 per Eric's book) yet when I see them move (the non-FS, I have not seen a FS for a while) the prices are disappointing.
On the other hand, I thank G-d for my heard of Buffs. I am so grateful for this thread for those! I can remember getting back in town just as they went back-ordered - which I only knew about because of this thread. I ordered many, many buffs - sets and singles, MS and Proof. All were delivered except for one of the denominations of singles (can't remember which). At least there is that.... Like most with the plats, if only I had put that $ into the Buffs....
I've only really been messing with the moderns since 2006, just as the 20th anniv. sets were being sold. Like most, I've had real winners (2008 W buffs, Burnished AGEs, etc.) and some duds. This forum has been truly invaluable. On the other hand, when I strike out, at least they're made of silver, gold and plat. Unlike stocks, at least they have that floor.
The 2008 W AGE Unc set is a bit of a painful memory for me... I ordered three sets. I kept one and sold the other two in the same FeeBay sale for $2400 each. Ugh.
On the other hand, also thanks to this thread, I bought 5 $10 2008 W AGE singles which I still have in five separate sealed boxes as well as several NGC MS70s which I got for barely over issue.
And how about those 2011 Gold commems?? I have two Army and two MOH uncs on the way. I don't know whether to keep them or not. Hard to say how they'll do at this point. On the other hand, before they went dark for re-pricing they were barely higher than spot.
I think the problem with the platinum coins is they are platinum and few even know what that is. Also there are 9 different sets one could collect (4 proof sizes, 5 unc adding in the bullion). That means we need 4 times as many collectors for the plats as the uglies.
If someone marketed the plats in China where platinum is more popular the coin pops on the market might drop enough to push prices higher. We need less supply at this point but nobody here is buying.
If I had to choose between plats or uglies right now as a set I would take the uglies, much lower average mintage and 24k gold, plus true type coins obverse and reverse.
No one cares about a low mintage coin if it's ugly.
Remember that when selling those uglies at 5% back of spot (Although that's been pretty profitable lately for early issues).
Designs matter. Design "topics" matter. The only "good part" that comes out of the series is the Liberty Short Set.
Long, drawn out series of ugly old women won't attract much demand. I view these sitting right next to the "American Arts Medallions" (with about as much interest) in dealer's cases in a few years time.
Focus should be on where the interest will lie with the next generation of collectors.
You have a whole world of collectors opening up in the far east, and by judging by the "dealer offers" for pre-Commie Chinese material - that may be where you want to be.......
<< <i>I think the problem with the platinum coins is they are platinum and few even know what that is. Also there are 9 different sets one could collect (4 proof sizes, 5 unc adding in the bullion). That means we need 4 times as many collectors for the plats as the uglies.
If someone marketed the plats in China where platinum is more popular the coin pops on the market might drop enough to push prices higher. We need less supply at this point but nobody here is buying.
If I had to choose between plats or uglies right now as a set I would take the uglies, much lower average mintage and 24k gold, plus true type coins obverse and reverse. >>
Long, drawn out series of ugly old women won't attract much demand. I view these sitting right next to the "American Arts Medallions" (with about as much interest) in dealer's cases in a few years time. >>
I find it unfair to compare the "uglies" to AAMs. The mintages were much higher on those. If the mintages were the same I would agree with your point. People have been slamming these coins since the begining and yet look at the valuations in good grades. The attitude reminds me of old timers who still believe we never walked on the moon because back in the 40's and 50's everyone said it was impossible.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Just got my MOH MS Gold Commem. Sent it back for an exchange. Had a nasty blotch on the obverse. Hope these are all not the rejects they are shipping now. Almost hope they do a second minting of these to get a better one. Proof version should be here tomorrow. That is the problem ordering these so late in the year.
There is an article in Coin World that the Army and MOH coins are pulled while mint develops a new pricing grid for commemorative gold coins similar to the pricing grid for gold eagles.
Last week was likely the last opportunity to scalp the mint on squeeze between spot price and posted sales price of any gold products.
Comments
<< <i>I cancelled my order and bought a Bushmaster and a bunch of accessories instead. >>
I agree, you do need a bushmaster to protect the gold!! I have been diverting some coin money also to buy select weapons, although they are much harder to hide from wifey.
<< <i>
<< <i>Some comparisons can be made with the UNC vs Proof gold Buffaloes of 2008, the Proof must be in greater demand. >>
We may even see this with the MOH and Army commemoratives. Though the proofs have out sold the UNC prior to the increase in gold, the buying frenzy of the UNC's may decrease future demand when compared to the proofs.
With the First Strike window closed (though there may still be eligible cons out there), there is currently only 29 DC PR70 MOH coins out there (43 Army). I can see some future potential in those 29 proofs and maybe even the 43 Army coins. >>
Do you think 50 years from now collectors will wonder what Kool-Aid we were drinking to pay anything exrtra for "first strike" ?
<< <i> I have been diverting some coin money also to buy select weapons, although they are much harder to hide from wifey.
Tell me about it!
As for the First Strike thingy, it really doesn't matter to me personally but the history and profit is there. No Kool Aid for me but there is a demand for them. It has been debated several times here but the bottom line is they have made me money. They sell for more than the non-First Strike.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Some comparisons can be made with the UNC vs Proof gold Buffaloes of 2008, the Proof must be in greater demand. >>
We may even see this with the MOH and Army commemoratives. Though the proofs have out sold the UNC prior to the increase in gold, the buying frenzy of the UNC's may decrease future demand when compared to the proofs.
With the First Strike window closed (though there may still be eligible cons out there), there is currently only 29 DC PR70 MOH coins out there (43 Army). I can see some future potential in those 29 proofs and maybe even the 43 Army coins. >>
Do you think 50 years from now collectors will wonder what Kool-Aid we were drinking to pay anything exrtra for "first strike" ? >>
Yes! I wonder myself all the time....
Miles
IMO, some of those numbers will surprise many on these boards. Sales numbers from the US Mint are about as good as our current inflation statistics released by our trusted Government. Don't bank on them at all.
<< <i>FINAL FINAL numbers on many of the Gold Spouses will be coming at the end of September.
IMO, some of those numbers will surprise many on these boards. Sales numbers from the US Mint are about as good as our current inflation statistics released by our trusted Government. Don't bank on them at all. >>
I have them all
<< <i>The MOH is up for repricing. Glad I grabbed a few. Thanks for the heads-up guys!!
Miles >>
............................................................................
Yeah...............thanks to everyone for all the up to date info.
I scraped out some 2006-W 1 ounce 20th Anniversary AGE MS69s to pick up some raw 2011-W AGEs and some Army/MOHs.
Swapping out gold with no or an exhausted numismatic premium for some possible future players.
Check back in a couple of years for an update...................
Not good for future appreciation - most likely too many sold already
Although I like the MOH design
Still at close to melt hard to lose if you are swapping generic 1 ounce slugs for 1/4 (.24) ounce pieces.
Bulk submit.......skim off 70s and scrap 69s.
<< <i>
<< <i>Question for gang ... is there any logical reason why (2) MOH $5 gold coins (roughly 1/2 oz. of gold) with close to a 6,500 mintage already (and possibly going up from there) should be worth more than say a 1/2 oz. Buchanan $10 Liberty MS with an even lower mintage and part of the prized Liberty Unc. series? Each sells for about the same as the other right now (i.e. -2- MOH vs. -1- Buchanan)? Thoughts?
Wondercoin >>
The Buchanan MS has the second highest mintage in the Liberty series, substantially higher than the Jackson and Van Buren. So it's not a stopper for anyone attempting to complete the set of 4. Also, the non-Spouse gold commems are more widely collected than the spouses - the key Jackie Robinson unc. is worth considerably more than several spouses with lower mintages.
I have another question for the gang: why is the 2007-W burnished half-ounce Gold Eagle (mintage 11.4K) worth 5 times as much as the 2008-W 1/10 ounce burnished Gold Eagle (mintage 12.6K). Both are the keys to their respective denominations, but I would think that the 1/10 ounce would be much more popular with collectors due to the affordability of a complete set. (For comparison, there are more than 3 times as many 1/10 ounce registry sets as there are half-ounce registry sets.) >>
Because one is being promoted and the other is not.
Price is not just a product of mintaage and base metal content, rather it is a product of demand, mintage and base metal content.
Never, ever underestimate that demand factor.
Just look at UHR with 100K+ mintage...................
Box of 20
Because the 2007 has 5 times as much gold?
Wondercoin
<< <i>Some coins have been "in play" for years, while others have not been "in play" ever. Those coins not in play could have exact same gold content and exact same mintage and still not have virtually any numismatic premium whatsoever at this time.
Wondercoin >>
Would you cite an example?
Wondercoin
<< <i>Sure... consider the 2002 MS SLC $5 gold commem with its roughly 10,600 mintage which is worth close to melt (one recently sold on the BST board for melt as I recall and another for the high $400's on ebay recently) as compared to a 1995 $5 MS Stadium with nearly the identical mintage and the exact amount of gold, but is worth many multiples of the SLC coin. And, I'll buy every MS stadium offered to me today at multiples of the typical SLC $5 price even though both coins are near identical mintage coins with identical gold content.
Wondercoin >>
That is an interesting situation. Must be that mysterious factor-x.
Wondercoin
<< <i>Sure... consider the 2002 MS SLC $5 gold commem with its roughly 10,600 mintage which is worth close to melt (one recently sold on the BST board for melt as I recall and another for the high $400's on ebay recently) as compared to a 1995 $5 MS Stadium with nearly the identical mintage and the exact amount of gold, but is worth many multiples of the SLC coin. And, I'll buy every MS stadium offered to me today at multiples of the typical SLC $5 price even though both coins are near identical mintage coins with identical gold content. >>
Another example is the 2003 $10 gold commem unc first flight. Mintage is only 10,003 yet greysheet bid is around melt.
The PCGS MS 70s go for $900.
Box of 20
<< <i>The PCGS MS 70s go for $900. >>
I was talking about raw or MS69 or below....of course.
<< <i>
<< <i>Sure... consider the 2002 MS SLC $5 gold commem with its roughly 10,600 mintage which is worth close to melt (one recently sold on the BST board for melt as I recall and another for the high $400's on ebay recently) as compared to a 1995 $5 MS Stadium with nearly the identical mintage and the exact amount of gold, but is worth many multiples of the SLC coin. And, I'll buy every MS stadium offered to me today at multiples of the typical SLC $5 price even though both coins are near identical mintage coins with identical gold content.
Wondercoin >>
That is an interesting situation. Must be that mysterious factor-x. >>
..........................................................................................................
That mysterious factor-x is called "DEMAND".
Question for the gang: with all of the offerings out there now, the high prices and the bad economy, are there any no-brainer silver commems. on sale now?
Thanks! R-
<< <i>Question for the gang: with all of the offerings out there now, the high prices and the bad economy, are there any no-brainer silver commems. on sale now? >>
The uncirculated 1999 Yellowstone commemorative dollar. The mintage is a low 23,650 and it has a greysheet price of only $40.
<< <i>
<< <i>Question for the gang: with all of the offerings out there now, the high prices and the bad economy, are there any no-brainer silver commems. on sale now? >>
The uncirculated 1999 Yellowstone commemorative dollar. The mintage is a low 23,650 and it has a greysheet price of only $40. >>
^^This^^
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Sure... consider the 2002 MS SLC $5 gold commem with its roughly 10,600 mintage which is worth close to melt (one recently sold on the BST board for melt as I recall and another for the high $400's on ebay recently) as compared to a 1995 $5 MS Stadium with nearly the identical mintage and the exact amount of gold, but is worth many multiples of the SLC coin. And, I'll buy every MS stadium offered to me today at multiples of the typical SLC $5 price even though both coins are near identical mintage coins with identical gold content.
Wondercoin >>
That is an interesting situation. Must be that mysterious factor-x. >>
That mysterious factor-x is called "DEMAND". >>
Which brings up the question, why are coins such as the 1995 $5 MS Stadium or the 2006-2008-W $10 and $25 Gold Eagles so highly in demand? I get it that they're being actively acquired by certain dealers, but who are their target clients? I would think that at current prices, the upside for these coins is limited and there is significant downside risk.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Perhaps this will guage what the interest will be in the national parks 5 oz series with the 2010's Ps barely selling out at 27K.
Box of 20
I liked the design and was the 1st us mint coin that has Braille.
To me it’s has a nice elegant design especially the reverse.
I track these on ebay and demand seems to be strong & consistant. Since the design is the same as the regular issue coins, it looks like the burnished "W" AGEs are considered by many collectors as the keys in the AGE series because of their significantly lower mintages.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Which brings up the question, why are coins such as the 1995 $5 MS Stadium or the 2006-2008-W $10 and $25 Gold Eagles so highly in demand? I get it that they're being actively acquired by certain dealers, but who are their target clients?
I track these on ebay and demand seems to be strong & consistant. Since the design is the same as the regular issue coins, it looks like the burnished "W" AGEs are considered by many collectors as the keys in the AGE series because of their significantly lower mintages. >>
I would agree, except for two unexplained circumstances:
1) The 2006-W and 2007-W $10 Gold Eagles are bringing near-identical prices, even though the mintage of the 2006-W is considerably higher. Ditto for those two dates regarding the $25 Gold Eagle. If collector demand were driving these prices, the 2007-W coins would be bringing significantly higher prices than the 2006-W.
2) The "W" tenth-ounce $5 Gold Eagles are conspicuously *not* participating in this rally, even though they are more widely collected than the higher denominations. For example, the *key* 2008-W $5 (mintage 12,657) is selling for half the price of the *non-key* 2007-W $10 (mintage 12,766) despite its slightly lower mintage. Both coins are selling at well above bullion value, so that does not explain the discrepancy.
So the question remains, why are the "W" $10 and $25 burnished Gold Eagles and the 1995 (but not 2002) unc. Olympic gold coins bringing such hefty premiums compared to many of their equally scarce counterparts?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The difference between the 1/4th oz. 2006-W (15,164 mintage) vs. the 1/4 oz. 2007-W (12,766 mintage) is the difference between two semi-keys, both of which are *significantly lower* in mintage than the previous key, the 1991 - which was not a very deep key (mintage 36,100). I just think that the absorption process is still ongoing for these denominations, and that the sub-10,000 key - the 1/4 oz 2008-W has overshadowed the two semi-keys pricewise for the time being, but in the process it has brought them along for the ride - at least part way along.
Ditto for those two dates regarding the $25 Gold Eagle.
The difference here is that the 1/2 oz. 2006-W (mintage 15,164) is a semi-key, but the 1/2 oz. 2007-W (mintage 11,455) is the bona fide key to the series. The previous key, the 1991 Unc had a significantly higher mintage of 24,100, and my observation is that prior to 2006 when the burnished "W" issues were introduced, the 1991 Unc had already been rising nicely for several years and this has helped to drag the new keys along into the higher price brackets more quickly than would have otherwise happened through absorption over time.
So the question remains, why are the "W" $10 and $25 burnished Gold Eagles................................................bringing such hefty premiums compared to many of their equally scarce counterparts?
The answer to the question as it regards the $10 and $25 "W" Gold Eagles is that there are no equally scarce counterparts to the "W" issues in terms of mintage. Except for the 1/4 oz. 2008-W, mintage hasn't seemed to affect pricing differentials as much, because the dispersal process isn't yet complete, in my opinion. The 1/4 oz. 2008-W was the first to react pricewise to a significant low mintage, and I expect the 1/2 oz. 2007-W to be the next one in this group to show some positive differential price increases (over its own semi-keys) due to its low mintage. Over time, I do think that we will see the mintage numbers affect pricing more so than now.
2) The "W" tenth-ounce $5 Gold Eagles are conspicuously *not* participating in this rally, even though they are more widely collected than the higher denominations. For example, the *key* 2008-W $5 (mintage 12,657) is selling for half the price of the *non-key* 2007-W $10 (mintage 12,766) despite its slightly lower mintage. Both coins are selling at well above bullion value, so that does not explain the discrepancy.
I wouldn't expect the premiums for 1/10 oz and 1/4 oz AGEs to be comparable because they are not the same series. The 2008-W $5 is selling for nice premiums above it's own competing semi-keys, so there is nothing inconsistant here. The burnished "W" AGEs sell for higher premiums than the burnished "W" platinum Eagles, in spite of the burnished "W" platinum Eagles having tiny mintages compared to the burnished AGEs. I know that gold is much more popular with collectors than is platinum, and this seems to corroborate it.
Pricing is a reflection of demand, and mintage both. I think that the 1/4 oz and 1/2 oz AGEs might just happen to be in the sweet spot for collector budgets. I know that I personally like the 1/4 oz and 1/2 oz coins better than the 1/10 oz coins, mainly because the 1/10 oz coins strike me as being a tad too small to appreciate.
I picked up a $5 2008-W burnished AGE a little while back (I was not paying much attention to coins in 2008 unfortunately). I figured that they weren't much participating in the rally, were the key to the $5 AGE series, and that key status was probably not going to get beat anytime soon due to the fractional burnished pieces getting axed. The next highest mintage in the $5 AGE series is 10,000 pieces higher! I thought it was a good buy but maybe my thought-train is off kilter?
Being the most affordable key in the most affordable AGE series is not a bad thing, especially with a mintage of 12,657. In terms of pricing leverage, that's comparable to the 2008-W 1/4 oz's mintage of 8,883.
I knew it would happen.
On a side note, I own a few pattern coins from the 19th century where the US Mint produced fewer than 20 total specimens (and the coins are close to 125+ years old already)(REPEAT .... THE MINTAGE IS -20- COINS TOTAL) and are worth LESS than some of my modern coins with mintages of 35,000 or 40,000 coins. For those of you not familiar with pattern coins, see pages 358-361 of the 2012 Red Book.
Wondercoin
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The plats have been such a profound let-down for me. I think that I have nearly $9K in my 2006 W PCGS MS70FS burnished set. I can remember all of the hype at the time - the ads for this set at $11K in CW, etc.
Then there are the 2008 W plats. While they've done O.K., they have certainly not met my expectations. I thought that my 2008 W $50 APE PCGS PR70DCAM FS would be killer (rarest of the plats, pop of 24, the 26th rarest proof type coin since 1859 per Eric's book) yet when I see them move (the non-FS, I have not seen a FS for a while) the prices are disappointing.
On the other hand, I thank G-d for my heard of Buffs. I am so grateful for this thread for those! I can remember getting back in town just as they went back-ordered - which I only knew about because of this thread. I ordered many, many buffs - sets and singles, MS and Proof. All were delivered except for one of the denominations of singles (can't remember which). At least there is that.... Like most with the plats, if only I had put that $ into the Buffs....
I've only really been messing with the moderns since 2006, just as the 20th anniv. sets were being sold. Like most, I've had real winners (2008 W buffs, Burnished AGEs, etc.) and some duds. This forum has been truly invaluable. On the other hand, when I strike out, at least they're made of silver, gold and plat. Unlike stocks, at least they have that floor.
Like you, I like the "floor" of PM content when I am buying moderns and with the ascent of PM prices, the Buffs were as close to a sure bet as we had.
Like the UHR, like the 2008-W's AGE, like the 2011 gold Commems??.......
Miles
On the other hand, also thanks to this thread, I bought 5 $10 2008 W AGE singles which I still have in five separate sealed boxes as well as several NGC MS70s which I got for barely over issue.
And how about those 2011 Gold commems?? I have two Army and two MOH uncs on the way. I don't know whether to keep them or not. Hard to say how they'll do at this point. On the other hand, before they went dark for re-pricing they were barely higher than spot.
If someone marketed the plats in China where platinum is more popular the coin pops on the market might drop enough to push prices higher. We need less supply at this point but nobody here is buying.
If I had to choose between plats or uglies right now as a set I would take the uglies, much lower average mintage and 24k gold, plus true type coins obverse and reverse.
Remember that when selling those uglies at 5% back of spot (Although that's been pretty profitable lately for early issues).
Designs matter. Design "topics" matter. The only "good part" that comes out of the series is the Liberty Short Set.
Long, drawn out series of ugly old women won't attract much demand. I view these sitting right next to the "American Arts Medallions" (with about as much interest) in dealer's cases in a few years time.
You have a whole world of collectors opening up in the far east, and by judging by the "dealer offers" for pre-Commie Chinese material - that may be where you want to be.......
<< <i>I think the problem with the platinum coins is they are platinum and few even know what that is. Also there are 9 different sets one could collect (4 proof sizes, 5 unc adding in the bullion). That means we need 4 times as many collectors for the plats as the uglies.
If someone marketed the plats in China where platinum is more popular the coin pops on the market might drop enough to push prices higher. We need less supply at this point but nobody here is buying.
If I had to choose between plats or uglies right now as a set I would take the uglies, much lower average mintage and 24k gold, plus true type coins obverse and reverse. >>
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It is interesting that the US Mint is still able to sell so many of the 1 oz. $100 W platinum pieces.
You would think that in time some of of these buyers would gravitate to the earlier issues.
I find it unfair to compare the "uglies" to AAMs. The mintages were much higher on those. If the mintages were the same I would agree with your point. People have been slamming these coins since the begining and yet look at the valuations in good grades. The attitude reminds me of old timers who still believe we never walked on the moon because back in the 40's and 50's everyone said it was impossible.
Box of 20
Last week was likely the last opportunity to scalp the mint on squeeze between spot price and posted sales price of any gold products.