<< <i>Even if the mint strikes more I will keep every single one of my Buchanans. They are part of the liberty subset and the only classic coin design of the series that was originaly designed to be gold. Also they are REAL close the same size as the original 1838 thru 1907 $10 classic eagle. >>
Just checking PCGS Graded First Spouse Populations! The Tyler wives are ruling for now, but it looks like Margaret Taylor is threatening Julia for the PCGS Proof Low.
TOTAL TOTAL PCGS MS70--PCGS PR70--MS70 FS--PR70 FS
2007 Martha Washington 778 631 335 430 2007 Abigail Adoms 792 492 428 227 2007 Jefferson Lib. 1008 786 765 615 2007 Dolley Madison 554 273 396 130 2008 Elizebeth Monroe 233 146 153 105 2008 Louisa Adoms 178 110 95 71 2008 Jackson Lib. 180 161 104 102 2008 Van Burans Lib. 229 167 137 123 2009 Anna Harrison 157 126 95 86 2009 Letitia Tyler (134) 129 (92) 103 2009 Julia Tyler 182 (96) 115 (69) 2009 Sarah Polk 137 156 101 112 2009 Margaret Taylor 146 80 105 68
Who ever Purchased that Julia Tyler Proof 70 first strike for $ 7,500+ must be watching & Hoping !!!!
If the Buchanan numbers as they're currently known turn out to be close to the final totals, how do they stack up vs. the other coins in the spouse liberty subset?
Can someone summarize the "Silver, Gold, Platinum..." champion uber-mega-thread for me?
There's been some good stuff coming from the Mint lately, but that might be over for now, or maybe it's not over yet, so if you are buying make sure to order early or maybe later to insure that you don't get rejects or maybe you will but at a lower price, or a higher one, and if you are worried about a sellout, only buy if you think that they are going to be short-struck, but be careful not to buy until you know for sure that they are, except that if you wait you won't be able to get First Strike, so you won't be able to flip them unless everyone thinks that way and doesn't order until after you do, in which case you can own the market.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I think that they will lose their premiums before they drop below their issue prices, because I think that gold isn't coming down (very far, at least) anytime soon.
And as that premium dissipates and the price of gold rises, some of these will probably hit the melting pot. It's just one of those things.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>I think that they will lose their premiums before they drop below their issue prices, because I think that gold isn't coming down (very far, at least) anytime soon.
And as that premium dissipates and the price of gold rises, some of these will probably hit the melting pot. It's just one of those things. >>
I don't think that it's coming down soon either. However, eventually I believe that it will just as it has every other time that it has spiked.
Which it will, because the supply of dollars is limited, but the government can print all the gold it wants to.
Did I get that right?
Overdate, I think you might be onto something important here. And I do agree with you on the Proof AGEs being a protection against "perceived protection from confiscation". I especially like your subtle use of the word "perceived".
I don't think that it's coming down soon either. However, eventually I believe that it will just as it has every other time that it has spiked.
Raufus - oh, I definitely agree with you on that. It will eventually come down after it has spiked. I'm just waiting patiently for the spike.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Guys it looks like we will see some more $10 Bucks being struck. :-(
Eric >>
Do tell Eric, what is your rationale ???
Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser, Bullsitter, robeck, Nickpatton, jwitten, and many OTHERS
<< <i>Guys it looks like we will see some more $10 Bucks being struck. :-(
Eric >>
If so, some profit opportunity will be lost, but the rising price of gold over the next few years should bail out anyone who bought a bunch.
Also this means the Jackson/Van Buren will be the keys, and will command higher prices than if the Buchanan had come in with a significantly lower mintage.
Remember all - the USM doesnt fire up the presses for a few hundred coins.
Unless there is substantial demand (i.e. 500+ coins - just my opinion, could be 1,000) I wouldnt bet on them wasting their time. There is no substantial profit producing in small numbers after an initial production run. They would have to have a significant amount of backordered coins.......
I would like to see the next round of numbers before jumping to conclusions too early.
Time to swap Buchanans for Margaret Taylor and Jane Pierce?
Edit: Actually, the Margaret Taylor could be an interesting minor speculation. It's scheduled to go off sale in December. We don't know how many were struck, but if supply is exhausted before the off-sale date, it's unlikely that more would be made because the new batch would be back-dated (2009), which current Mint policy does not condone.
While visiting Colonial Williamsburg recently I stopped in the silver smith’s shop while he was forming a 7 once silver cup. He explained to the tourists that in the 1700s this cup contained about 3 weeks wages in silver and the finished product sold for 4 weeks wages. A complete 12 setting silver set with plates, utensils, decanter and serving tray could easily represent 5-10 years wages! Simply put, the family’s silver ware was an enjoyable form of savings that represented a significant portion of the family’s net worth. No wonder people used to be concerned about who got aunt Beth’s silverware! It was an important form of intergenerational wealth transfer. So too is your coin collection.
Most coin collectors are upper middle class or better and are facing a serious intergenerational wealth transfer problem over the next 30 years. Lets take a look at why you might already be in the right place and how you can fine-tune your efforts in this regard.
Successful individuals are facing a pair of long-term threats to their family’s fiscal health. One is the overwhelming un-funded Federal liabilities owed pending retirees with a present value of 60-200 trillion dollars according to estimates based on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data and a July 2010 report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The other is the fact that the lower 75 percent of US households have saved an average of only $15,000 in 401k, IRA and Keogh plans combined and the same groups total financial assets only average $35,000 according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI).
While EBRI numbers are in constant flux due to changing market prices they still give us a good general feel for the magnitudes of national wealth and how it is distributed.
Two thirds of US household net worth is concentrated in the eleven million families that represent the top 10 % of US wealth holders. Allowing the Bush inheritance tax cuts to expire at some point and not indexing the tax free inheritance limit to inflation would allow most of the 50 trillion dollar net worth of the upper 10 percent to get hit with the 55 percent inheritance tax assuming it’s not given to charity. Absorbing 20 trillion dollars in the first cycle of Federal death taxes over the next 30 years should be easily achievable given that almost all heads of house holds in the top 10 percentile are over 45 years old.
The 17 million upper middle class families that inhabit the top 10-25 % of US households have an average net worth of about $700,000 and tend to make between $75,000 and $150,000 a year. Today’s $700,000 net worth will be a $2,100,000 estate in 25 years using Alan Greenspan’s recent base line inflation predictions and the tax free inheritance exemption isn’t necessarily indexed to inflation. The CBO is already planning on various forms of bracket creep in its estimates. We are lucky to see 70 cents on the dollar from the time we make it to the time it ends up in our checking account. If that dollar is saved then it is stacked on the top end of our net worth and it’s likely to get hit for another 55 cents on the dollar through inheritance taxes. Total marginal tax rates on upper middle class and wealthy families could easily hit 70 percent from the time a dollar is earned by a head of household to the time it is given to a younger family member if it is not handled correctly.
We all hope that the US Government will not need to impose such harsh tax burdens on the productive but unfortunately that’s not what’s waiting for us. The July 2010 IMF report stated that “closing the fiscal gap requires a permanent annual fiscal adjustment equal to 14 percent of US GDP” in order to avoid having our debt to GDP ratio expand uncontrollably. That’s a staggering figure because the Federal government is currently absorbing 15% of GDP in all tax forms so an almost immediate doubling of ALL federal taxes that goes on indefinitely is what is being prescribed. Either that or an immediate and permanent 50 percent drop in all Federal spending. Every year we put off this adjustment the larger the distortions and the more painful the necessary corrections will be.
The key to successfully navigating this situation is to focus on the continuity of family wealth not personal net worth.
The first step every household should take is develop a reasonable current net worth estimate and then index that to some rational annual inflation rate between now and the head(s) of household average life expectancy. There is no real reason to expect an unindexed to inflation tax-free estate allowable beyond one million dollars per parent given the governments disastrous long-term commitments. This gives us some idea of how much of our family’s net worth is vulnerable if any and how long we have to work with. The second task in a well thought out wealth management strategy is to consistently “scuff off” the upper portion of the household’s net worth into highly liquid invisible assets that do not create taxable events for an extremely long time, have long appreciation cycles and can be given to younger family members under uniform gift acts.
Family Heirlooms- How To Pick Them
Dr. Laurence Kotlikoff near the end of his very well written book “Generational Storm” that brings home in great detail our Federal Government’s massive fiscal problems suggested that his readers “build an alternative portfolio”. One of the best ways to do this is though the use of serious highly liquid family heirlooms. But which ones should we consider and what useful rules of thumb should we apply?
Strangely enough the US Treasury has unintentionally given us some first class pointers on its public affairs website regarding what we should be interested in. They state:
"Precious metals, precious stones, and jewels constitute easily transportable, highly concentrated forms of wealth. They serve as international mediums of exchange that can be converted into cash anywhere in the world. In addition, precious metals, especially gold, silver, and platinum, have a ready, actively traded market, and can be melted and poured into various forms, thereby obliterating refinery marks and leaving them virtually untraceable."
Proposed Rule, 31 CFR Part 103, RIN 1506-AA28, Page 5
Occasionally collectors on the PCGS message board will make the comment that high dollar collections can end up at the pawn shop and that the best thing to do in regard to your collection is sell it for cash or gold and jointly gift it to the grand kids at $25,000 a year under the uniform gift acts. Another frequently suggested option is write a check to responsible young family members, have them cash it and progressively buy family coins from the parent or grandparent’s collection every year. Put their name on the lock box and keep the keys at home. No real cash changed hands and the family collection remains. Exactly how you accomplish this is based on many variables and you may need to talk to your tax specialist but the point is “scuff” the net worth off your books and build “cost basis” on theirs and do it every year.
Family heirlooms that are being used as intergenerational wealth transfer mechanisms need to have durable long-term value. Unfortunately sky-high collector premiums over intrinsic value are based on very thin markets that are directly dependent on the currently existing structural preferences of collector’s sets and the disposable income of US citizens. If anything were to happen to either one over the younger family member’s lifetime the heirlooms’ importance as a long-term family asset is compromised. This is why many prefer to stay completely way from numismatics when managing family wealth but this is likely an error. Just as the silver ware example in the opening was an improved form of the base material so too rare coins are a superior form of holding material that has been regarded as money for thousands of years because they have dual supply and demand curves.
An excellent example of this type of favorable dual structure can be seen in high bullion content modern eagles with low mintages. Most attractive classic key date coinage issued in the last century have matured into the 50 to 100+ times melt value range and have become almost completely divorced from the value of the metal they are struck on. Key date modern silver, gold and platinum Eagles that are still in their infancy can be purchased for 2 to 3 times their intrinsic value in many cases. The chart below illustrates the approximate price behavior of a high intrinsic value key date as its series progresses from infancy to full maturity. Constant dollar price maturity tends to show up within 30-50 years after a series is no longer available from governmental inventory or sooner.
When the rarest coin in a large series or a coin with a rare design (type coin) can be picked up for less than 2-3 times melt you are essentially acquiring a highly liquid, low risk art form that has the potential to display white hot appreciation during the growth phase of its life cycle. By the time this process is complete its normal to see the four rarest coins in any given set to represent over 50% of the entire sets value and that’s why its good policy to stay away from coinage new or old that’s trading for more than about 1.5 times melt if its common in its set. If you are going to pay over twice melt you might as well be buying the lead coin of a young set.
For Example: Buying a 20 coin mint state series whose common dates trade just over melt that includes four cheap strong keys is a beautiful thing because 75% of the set purchase price is bullion and four strong keys as they mature have no problem driving the whole set to multiples of melt. If precious metals go hyperbolic at some point because our nations long-term financial mismanagement catches up with us intrinsic value expansion will carry the day. If its morning in America again and metals prices become soft, a good-looking popular and affordable series can display excellent long-term growth.
The main point of all this is to couple young family members youth with the long appreciation cycle that rare coinage can create without absorbing sky high collector premiums. What other potential family heirlooms can we buy that enjoys the benefit of having been struck on the materials humanity has regarded as money for most of recorded history and enjoys a relatively bullet proof value floor as a result?
A rare silver, gold or platinum Eagle collection:
Is not someone else’s liability and as such cannot be defaulted on. Is not impacted by inflation or foreign investors willingness to hold dollars. Can appreciate in constant dollar terms for 30-50 years as the series mature. Can be held almost indefinitely. Is not subject to property tax. Offers excellent liquidity. Normally survives bankruptcy. Serves as an invisible form of wealth. Minimizes the impact of means testing. Can be exchanged in large or small increments. Is an enjoyable form of long-term savings.
Allan Greenspan made the comment in the “Age of Turbulence” that “How governments finesse the transfer of real resources from the shrinking shares of their populations who make up their work force to a growing retirement population is likely to be the defining question of the next quarter century.” 401K, IRA, Keogh, and insurance policy shelters all have the same set of problems; they are high profile targets with huge monetary value, owned by a narrow voting block, accessible by amending currently existing tax law and the cost of enforcement is negligible. Whatever high potential, high intrinsic value family heirlooms you choose to transfer under the currently exiting laws are effectively off the table. Systematically move as much as you can off the table between now and 2017 when the CBO models indicate the real Federal bills begin to come due and our deficits are no longer discretionary but structural.
What an outstanding article, Eric. It gives me some guidelines for leaving my children something besides a large tax bill. I think I have enough time remaining to implement this and allow my heirs to escape from any tax burden. Thanks for sharing your insight and knowledge.
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
Even though my conscious tells me to believe Eric's sources regarding the restrike of more $10 Buch, somehow, my subconscious always remains and gives me some false hope that there might still be a tiny chance that there will be no more.
I understand that it is hard to predict what the Mint will do, but is it possible to have a rough time frame to expect when we will get a Yes or No from the mint? Or put it in other word, if the Mint has already placed an order to West Point to mint more Buch, how long does it take to have them delivered?
Thanks so much for this extremely worthwhile yet sobering - if not depressing - article. The degree to which the hard working, successful citizens of this nation are punished just astounds me.
"A rare silver, gold or platinum Eagle collection" as a source of wealth for future generations...............
Not to pick a fight with OP but I must take major exception to the idea that great wealth for future generations can achieved quite so easily.
First the bullet points................
Is not someone else’s liability and as such cannot be defaulted on. .......If paid for in full and held personally you still face risk of home fires, robbery, crooked lawyers/family members and trust/will administrators.
Is not impacted by inflation or foreign investors willingness to hold dollars. .............it is most certainly impacted by inflation. In fact that accounts for a large part of last 100 years of gains. Less reccognized is that it is also impacted by lack of inflation and risk of deflation. Also faces risk of swings in base PM price with added variable of spot metal price change vs. inflation over same time period. Even if spot price rises it may lag natural inflation rate. Also risk of changes in supply and demand. Not something to easily discount. Doubt it?? Look at effect of Comstock load on price of silver.
Can appreciate in constant dollar terms for 30-50 years as the series mature. ...........Perhaps but past examples of such performance do not guarantee future gains.
Can be held almost indefinitely. ...............in the elemental sense yes but practically speaking safety, storage, transport, etc. are major concerns.
Is not subject to property tax. ................Tax law is very fluid. I expect in some locales taxes on "Real property" could now or in the future be interpeted to include holdings of PMs and other collectables.
Offers excellent liquidity. ...............Very questionable. Right now PM trading has no restrictions but that could easily change. Do you sell for spot less 3-5-10-20%?? Depends on your skill/knowledge or more importantly your heirs skill, knowledge and efforts. Sell 100K today and get paid today. Not so easy. Sell a $1000 in PM with a $99K numismatic premium for 100K quickly. Certainly more difficult without your accepting a haircut but may far more difficult in the future. Who can predict demand and laws/regulations 10-50-100 years from now??
Normally survives bankruptcy. ...............May depend on the laws of your locale, skill of your creditors in finding your assets and your tolerance of fraud.
Serves as an invisible form of wealth. ...................Invisible or perceived "wealth" is of no value unless it can be used to pay bills or make purchases. Likely will be far more difficult to avoid tax consequences of a sale in the future. Just consider recent 1099 reporting changes. Also in the end it comes down to your tolerance of tax evasion. Whether it is bartered or sold a potential taxable event will occur if a profit is made.
Minimizes the impact of means testing. ......................Again it comes down to that pesky question of reporting requirements and your compliance.
Can be exchanged in large or small increments. ...............................large increments will almost certainly become more difficult and more visible in the future.
Is an enjoyable form of long-term savings. ..............................certainly enjoyable. Just how good a form of savings remains to be seen. You will have to be right in your choice of coins, will have to conserve and preserve them for many decades, will have to educate your heirs, will have to be right about direction of PM prices, inflation and collecting interests and finally you will remain subject to all local, state and federal laws.
<< <i>"A rare silver, gold or platinum Eagle collection" as a source of wealth for future generations...............
Not to pick a fight with OP but I must take major exception to the idea that great wealth for future generations can achieved quite so easily.
First the bullet points................
Is not someone else’s liability and as such cannot be defaulted on. .......If paid for in full and held personally you still face risk of home fires, robbery, crooked lawyers/family members and trust/will administrators.
ANSWER: Someone can always rip you off if you handle it poorly. Get a safe deposit box with the kids name on it.
Is not impacted by inflation or foreign investors willingness to hold dollars. .............it is most certainly impacted by inflation. In fact that accounts for a large part of last 100 years of gains. Less reccognized is that it is also impacted by lack of inflation and risk of deflation. Also faces risk of swings in base PM price with added variable of spot metal price change vs. inflation over same time period. Even if spot price rises it may lag natural inflation rate. Also risk of changes in supply and demand. Not something to easily discount. Doubt it?? Look at effect of Comstock load on price of silver.
Answer: The metals have been an imperfect store of wealth for over 4,000 years. Having to print money because the govt can't tax enough to cover its bills will not hurt the metals or the coins struck on them. Foreigners may not want to hold your sovereign debt (the dollars as a federal reserve note is a form of sovereign debt) but they will except your gold. See the balance sheet of the BIS where a currency swap showed up this spring to help covers a pigs debt.
Deflation could hurt the metals but I did not claim resistance to deflation. I think the precious metals may be a little high right now because we may get a break in the 2012-2015 period before our off the books debts really start to kick out butt in the 2017-2025 period. As far as another Comstock load showing up and wrecking the price of the metals it is important to note that it is getting harder and harder to find excellent large ore bodies world wide. They may find some more and it may have an impact on the spot price for a while but the price of mining keeps going up (permits, enviro, energy cost) and this is the long term price floor for anything.
Can appreciate in constant dollar terms for 30-50 years as the series mature. ...........Perhaps but past examples of such performance do not guarantee future gains.
Answer: Did not claim that it would for certain I said it "can".
Can be held almost indefinitely. ...............in the elemental sense yes but practically speaking safety, storage, transport, etc. are major concerns.
Answer I have friends that have held family collections for 150 years....
Is not subject to property tax. ................Tax law is very fluid. I expect in some locales taxes on "Real property" could now or in the future be interpeted to include holdings of PMs and other collectibles.
Answer: There is almost no way to enforce a property tax on material that is not changing hands and has no numbers associated with it. See the treasury comments above. You do not have to believe me. They cant legislate no rain. Laws must be enforceable to be meaningful.
Offers excellent liquidity. ...............Very questionable. Right now PM trading has no restrictions but that could easily change. Do you sell for spot less 3-5-10-20%?? Depends on your skill/knowledge or more importantly your heirs skill, knowledge and efforts. Sell 100K today and get paid today. Not so easy. Sell a $1000 in PM with a $99K numismatic premium for 100K quickly. Certainly more difficult without your accepting a haircut but may far more difficult in the future. Who can predict demand and laws/regulations 10-50-100 years from now??
Answer: I cant predict laws and regulations in the out years other than to say most classes of assets in households with a high net worth are going to get killed and you need to find a way to give yourself a fighting chance. Pay your taxes now and get into things that are hard to access and have long term value. Build the kids and grand kids cost basis through the currently existing uniform gift laws.
Normally survives bankruptcy. ...............May depend on the laws of your locale, skill of your creditors in finding your assets and your tolerance of fraud.
Answer: You speak in theory. Well before you go bankrupt start selling off you material to other family members or good friends at face or intrinsic. The bottom line is most people that I have known that got in financial trouble did in fact find ways to see to it that their collections survived. Its only fraud if you don't think ahead. I have to assume that you have common sense.
Serves as an invisible form of wealth. ...................Invisible or perceived "wealth" is of no value unless it can be used to pay bills or make purchases. Likely will be far more difficult to avoid tax consequences of a sale in the future. Just consider recent 1099 reporting changes. Also in the end it comes down to your tolerance of tax evasion. Whether it is bartered or sold a potential taxable event will occur if a profit is made.
Answer: Wealth is of no value if you cant use it to pay your bills. Thats true of all things. I am not saying you should break the law. Pay your taxes now and get the kids basis up so when they use it they will only owe on the growth in the asset. If you dont get the net worth off your books if you are wealthy the death tax is going to rape you.
Minimizes the impact of means testing. ......................Again it comes down to that pesky question of reporting requirements and your compliance. Answer: Yes but at least thats a decision you can make at that time.
Can be exchanged in large or small increments. ...............................large increments will almost certainly become more difficult and more visible in the future. Answer: True for everything.
Is an enjoyable form of long-term savings. ..............................certainly enjoyable. Just how good a form of savings remains to be seen. You will have to be right in your choice of coins, will have to conserve and preserve them for many decades, will have to educate your heirs, will have to be right about direction of PM prices, inflation and collecting interests and finally you will remain subject to all local, state and federal laws. >>
If you had a friend who made several purchases from the US Mint in recent years what would you tell him to do?
Let's say he is concerned with the continued devaluation of the US Dollar as well as the continual erosion of potential buyers of high-end coins. So, liquidity is a concern. Also, let's say he is considering the sell of his collectible coins and taking the funds and just buying gold and/or silver bullion. What would you tell him to do in this scenario?
Let's say all coins have the box, COA, etc and none are slabbed.
1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2006 $10.00 1/4 GOLD UNC W 1- 2006 $25.00 1/2 GOLD UNC W 1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2007 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2007 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2008 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2008 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo UNC 1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo UNC 1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo 1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo 1- 2007 $20.00 UHR
I would tell him to hold his coins because in 10 - 15 - 20+ years from now he will have transportable intrinsic wealth that can leave a lasting family legacy (is this too over the top?)!
<< <i>Although they can sell the Buchanans well into 2011, they can't mint anymore after 12/31/2010. So by law, they've got 3 more months to strike more... >>
They could produce the remaining max mintage with no problem by then,
<< <i>If you had a friend who made several purchases from the US Mint in recent years what would you tell him to do?
Let's say he is concerned with the continued devaluation of the US Dollar as well as the continual erosion of potential buyers of high-end coins. So, liquidity is a concern. Also, let's say he is considering the sell of his collectible coins and taking the funds and just buying gold and/or silver bullion. What would you tell him to do in this scenario?
Let's say all coins have the box, COA, etc and none are slabbed.
1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2006 $10.00 1/4 GOLD UNC W 1- 2006 $25.00 1/2 GOLD UNC W 1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2007 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2007 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2008 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2008 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo UNC 1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo UNC 1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo 1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo 1- 2007 $20.00 UHR
I would tell him to hold his coins because in 10 - 15 - 20+ years from now he will have transportable intrinsic wealth that can leave a lasting family legacy (is this too over the top?)!
Let me know your opinions! >>
I would not think so. I would even add some more gold to that portfolio. let's say the 2010 AGE proof set to start with, and a few First Souses.
<< <i>They could produce the remaining max mintage with no problem by then, >>
Possible, but extremely unlikely.
Let's face it guys, the sales numbers arent exactly jumping for the last two sales reports - and I dont expect them to trend up anytime soon. Without a sizeable backlog of orders, why would the USM ever strike more? Think about it. This is not an operation that strikes piece by piece as orders come in.
Especially when gold is rising and the possibility of another price increase looms.
My opinion is that the proof will be the short strike of the liberty subset proofs. That alone will make it a winner. Not to mention it's great design and the only liberty subset design to be "right" for the metal and "right" for the size and denomination (Liberty $10 Gold).
<< <i>If you had a friend who made several purchases from the US Mint in recent years what would you tell him to do?
Let's say he is concerned with the continued devaluation of the US Dollar as well as the continual erosion of potential buyers of high-end coins. So, liquidity is a concern. Also, let's say he is considering the sell of his collectible coins and taking the funds and just buying gold and/or silver bullion. What would you tell him to do in this scenario?
Let's say all coins have the box, COA, etc and none are slabbed.
1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2006 $10.00 1/4 GOLD UNC W 1- 2006 $25.00 1/2 GOLD UNC W 1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2007 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2007 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2008 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2008 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo UNC 1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo UNC 1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo 1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo 1- 2007 $20.00 UHR
I would tell him to hold his coins because in 10 - 15 - 20+ years from now he will have transportable intrinsic wealth that can leave a lasting family legacy (is this too over the top?)!
<< <i>If you had a friend who made several purchases from the US Mint in recent years what would you tell him to do?
Let's say he is concerned with the continued devaluation of the US Dollar as well as the continual erosion of potential buyers of high-end coins. So, liquidity is a concern. Also, let's say he is considering the sell of his collectible coins and taking the funds and just buying gold and/or silver bullion. What would you tell him to do in this scenario?
Let's say all coins have the box, COA, etc and none are slabbed.
1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W.......SELL IT TO ME 1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2006 $10.00 1/4 GOLD UNC W.........SELL IT TO ME, JOHN WANTS IT 1- 2006 $25.00 1/2 GOLD UNC W.........SELL IT TO ME, JOHN WANTS IT 1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2007 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W 1- 2007 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W 1- 2008 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W........SELL IT TO ME 1- 2008 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W........SELL IT TO ME 1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo UNC............SELL IT TO ME 1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo UNC 1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo 1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo 1- 2007 $20.00 UHR
IF YOU DONT NEED THE MONEY FOLLOW WARREN BUFFETS ADVICE..... SIT DOWN ON GOOD ASSETS AND LET THEM MATURE.
I would tell him to hold his coins because in 10 - 15 - 20+ years from now he will have transportable intrinsic wealth that can leave a lasting family legacy (is this too over the top?)!
My answer depends on what else your friend has in his portfolio. I've invested in all of those same coins, and I am quite attached to them. However, if they were my only assets then I might be tempted to cash in some of them in order to cement the gains that they have enjoyed due to increases in their individual premiums.
But, if those coins were only a portion of my total assets, which they are - I would evaluate things as we go along. It also depends on the nature of your friend's other assets. If those other assets were paper-based, I would set about to liquidate the paper assets and to phase into pms gradually over time instead of selling the heirloom coins. If those assets were already mostly pms, I would stand pat.
If I had to think of a situation in which I would sell the heirlooms in order to buy pms, it would be a situation in which the heirlooms were my only financial assets. In that case, I might be tempted to sell about 1/2 of them in order to diversify into pm bullion and a little cash.
The problem with selling them when you aren't forced to sell them is that you automatically trigger a taxable event, and you incur additional transaction costs. There is really no need to do either. The flip side is that these heirloom coins may lose some of their premium as bullion goes higher, so the financial leverage is actually less as pms increase.
But remember - you've already seen gains whether you cash them in or not, and the heirloom coins will still continue to do their job of protecting your purchasing power as pms continue to rise.
On balance, the reasons for holding outweigh the reasons for trading them in, at this time. My opinion.
Tax laws can change at the whim of the politicians. With pms, you can decide what your position will be. With paper, you cannot. If the politicians want to make criminals of every pm owner, they will do it. That's when the power to make decisions becomes even more important.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
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Comments
Uncirculated 3,540
Proof 5,028
Link
Unc. sales may be higher than number struck if oversold, as has happened in the past.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Even if the mint strikes more I will keep every single one of my Buchanans. They are part of the liberty subset and the only classic coin design of the series that was originaly designed to be gold. Also they are REAL close the same size as the original 1838 thru 1907 $10 classic eagle. >>
The Tyler wives are ruling for now, but it looks like Margaret
Taylor is threatening Julia for the PCGS Proof Low.
TOTAL TOTAL
PCGS MS70--PCGS PR70--MS70 FS--PR70 FS
2007 Martha Washington 778 631 335 430
2007 Abigail Adoms 792 492 428 227
2007 Jefferson Lib. 1008 786 765 615
2007 Dolley Madison 554 273 396 130
2008 Elizebeth Monroe 233 146 153 105
2008 Louisa Adoms 178 110 95 71
2008 Jackson Lib. 180 161 104 102
2008 Van Burans Lib. 229 167 137 123
2009 Anna Harrison 157 126 95 86
2009 Letitia Tyler (134) 129 (92) 103
2009 Julia Tyler 182 (96) 115 (69)
2009 Sarah Polk 137 156 101 112
2009 Margaret Taylor 146 80 105 68
Who ever Purchased that Julia Tyler Proof 70 first strike for $ 7,500+
must be watching & Hoping !!!!
If the Buchanan numbers as they're currently known turn out to be close to the final totals, how do they stack up vs. the other coins in the spouse liberty subset?
current gold range: 4-coin set $2,845.50
next gold level: 4-coin set $2,938.00
I'm still in for 1
Who is out because of the price?
We went through this with the UHR, the 2009 & 2010 Platinum Proof, and now, the 2010 Gold eagle Proof Set.
Which of these do you believe will be worth less than issue price?
Miles
<< <i>
TOTAL TOTAL
MS70 FS--PR70 FS
2007 Jefferson Lib. 765 615
2008 Jackson Lib. 104 102
2008 Van Burans Lib. 137 123
>>
2010 Buchanan Lib. 189 188 (as of Sept 23)
Just check the pop report today. In terms of First Strike population, Buchanan is already more than Van Buren and Jackson.
<< <i>Can someone summarize the "Silver, Gold, Platinum..." champion uber-mega-thread for me?
I will try.
Platinum is great. Gold is good. Look at them Buffalos. We hate the Hags. We love Eric. Great Book. What's the deal with them Spouses?
There's been some good stuff coming from the Mint lately, but that might be over for now, or maybe it's not over yet, so if you are buying make sure to order early or maybe later to insure that you don't get rejects or maybe you will but at a lower price, or a higher one, and if you are worried about a sellout, only buy if you think that they are going to be short-struck, but be careful not to buy until you know for sure that they are, except that if you wait you won't be able to get First Strike, so you won't be able to flip them unless everyone thinks that way and doesn't order until after you do, in which case you can own the market.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I am in regardless of the price.
We went through this with the UHR, the 2009 & 2010 Platinum Proof, and now, the 2010 Gold eagle Proof Set.
Which of these do you believe will be worth less than issue price?
Miles >>
I believe that they will drop below issue when gold eventually drops. They will be a high mintage AGE Proof issue.
And as that premium dissipates and the price of gold rises, some of these will probably hit the melting pot. It's just one of those things.
I knew it would happen.
Which it will, because the supply of dollars is limited, but the government can print all the gold it wants to.
Did I get that right?
Seriously, I think proof Gold Eagles will always carry a premium due to IRA demand and perceived protection from confiscation.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>I think that they will lose their premiums before they drop below their issue prices, because I think that gold isn't coming down (very far, at least) anytime soon.
And as that premium dissipates and the price of gold rises, some of these will probably hit the melting pot. It's just one of those things. >>
I don't think that it's coming down soon either. However, eventually I believe that it will just as it has every other time that it has spiked.
Did I get that right?
Overdate, I think you might be onto something important here. And I do agree with you on the Proof AGEs being a protection against "perceived protection from confiscation". I especially like your subtle use of the word "perceived".
I don't think that it's coming down soon either. However, eventually I believe that it will just as it has every other time that it has spiked.
Raufus - oh, I definitely agree with you on that. It will eventually come down after it has spiked. I'm just waiting patiently for the spike.
I knew it would happen.
Eric
<< <i>Guys it looks like we will see some more $10 Bucks being struck. :-(
Eric >>
Do tell Eric, what is your rationale ???
<< <i>Guys it looks like we will see some more $10 Bucks being struck. :-(
Eric >>
If so, some profit opportunity will be lost, but the rising price of gold over the next few years should bail out anyone who bought a bunch.
Also this means the Jackson/Van Buren will be the keys, and will command higher prices than if the Buchanan had come in with a significantly lower mintage.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
what about demand??
Unless there is substantial demand (i.e. 500+ coins - just my opinion, could be 1,000) I wouldnt bet on them wasting their time. There is no substantial profit producing in small numbers after an initial production run. They would have to have a significant amount of backordered coins.......
I would like to see the next round of numbers before jumping to conclusions too early.
Edit: Actually, the Margaret Taylor could be an interesting minor speculation. It's scheduled to go off sale in December. We don't know how many were struck, but if supply is exhausted before the off-sale date, it's unlikely that more would be made because the new batch would be back-dated (2009), which current Mint policy does not condone.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Proof totals are 31,896 so far.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Coinage Heirlooms, Life Boats for Family Wealth
While visiting Colonial Williamsburg recently I stopped in the silver smith’s shop while he was forming a 7 once silver cup. He explained to the tourists that in the 1700s this cup contained about 3 weeks wages in silver and the finished product sold for 4 weeks wages. A complete 12 setting silver set with plates, utensils, decanter and serving tray could easily represent 5-10 years wages! Simply put, the family’s silver ware was an enjoyable form of savings that represented a significant portion of the family’s net worth. No wonder people used to be concerned about who got aunt Beth’s silverware! It was an important form of intergenerational wealth transfer. So too is your coin collection.
Most coin collectors are upper middle class or better and are facing a serious intergenerational wealth transfer problem over the next 30 years. Lets take a look at why you might already be in the right place and how you can fine-tune your efforts in this regard.
Successful individuals are facing a pair of long-term threats to their family’s fiscal health. One is the overwhelming un-funded Federal liabilities owed pending retirees with a present value of 60-200 trillion dollars according to estimates based on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data and a July 2010 report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The other is the fact that the lower 75 percent of US households have saved an average of only $15,000 in 401k, IRA and Keogh plans combined and the same groups total financial assets only average $35,000 according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI).
While EBRI numbers are in constant flux due to changing market prices they still give us a good general feel for the magnitudes of national wealth and how it is distributed.
Percentile..... Retirement Plans... Total Financial Assets....Total Net Worth
Top 10%...... $5.3 Trillion.......... $19 Trillion.................$50 Trillion
75-90 %...... $2.1 Trillion.......... $4 Trillion..................$12 Trillion
50-75%....... $1.1 Trillion.......... $2 Trillion..................$10 Trillion
Lower 50%... $.3 Trillion........... $.7 Trillion.................$4 Trillion
Two thirds of US household net worth is concentrated in the eleven million families that represent the top 10 % of US wealth holders. Allowing the Bush inheritance tax cuts to expire at some point and not indexing the tax free inheritance limit to inflation would allow most of the 50 trillion dollar net worth of the upper 10 percent to get hit with the 55 percent inheritance tax assuming it’s not given to charity. Absorbing 20 trillion dollars in the first cycle of Federal death taxes over the next 30 years should be easily achievable given that almost all heads of house holds in the top 10 percentile are over 45 years old.
The 17 million upper middle class families that inhabit the top 10-25 % of US households have an average net worth of about $700,000 and tend to make between $75,000 and $150,000 a year. Today’s $700,000 net worth will be a $2,100,000 estate in 25 years using Alan Greenspan’s recent base line inflation predictions and the tax free inheritance exemption isn’t necessarily indexed to inflation. The CBO is already planning on various forms of bracket creep in its estimates. We are lucky to see 70 cents on the dollar from the time we make it to the time it ends up in our checking account. If that dollar is saved then it is stacked on the top end of our net worth and it’s likely to get hit for another 55 cents on the dollar through inheritance taxes. Total marginal tax rates on upper middle class and wealthy families could easily hit 70 percent from the time a dollar is earned by a head of household to the time it is given to a younger family member if it is not handled correctly.
We all hope that the US Government will not need to impose such harsh tax burdens on the productive but unfortunately that’s not what’s waiting for us. The July 2010 IMF report stated that “closing the fiscal gap requires a permanent annual fiscal adjustment equal to 14 percent of US GDP” in order to avoid having our debt to GDP ratio expand uncontrollably. That’s a staggering figure because the Federal government is currently absorbing 15% of GDP in all tax forms so an almost immediate doubling of ALL federal taxes that goes on indefinitely is what is being prescribed. Either that or an immediate and permanent 50 percent drop in all Federal spending. Every year we put off this adjustment the larger the distortions and the more painful the necessary corrections will be.
The key to successfully navigating this situation is to focus on the continuity of family wealth not personal net worth.
The first step every household should take is develop a reasonable current net worth estimate and then index that to some rational annual inflation rate between now and the head(s) of household average life expectancy. There is no real reason to expect an unindexed to inflation tax-free estate allowable beyond one million dollars per parent given the governments disastrous long-term commitments. This gives us some idea of how much of our family’s net worth is vulnerable if any and how long we have to work with. The second task in a well thought out wealth management strategy is to consistently “scuff off” the upper portion of the household’s net worth into highly liquid invisible assets that do not create taxable events for an extremely long time, have long appreciation cycles and can be given to younger family members under uniform gift acts.
Family Heirlooms- How To Pick Them
Dr. Laurence Kotlikoff near the end of his very well written book “Generational Storm” that brings home in great detail our Federal Government’s massive fiscal problems suggested that his readers “build an alternative portfolio”. One of the best ways to do this is though the use of serious highly liquid family heirlooms. But which ones should we consider and what useful rules of thumb should we apply?
Strangely enough the US Treasury has unintentionally given us some first class pointers
on its public affairs website regarding what we should be interested in. They state:
"Precious metals, precious stones, and jewels constitute easily transportable, highly concentrated forms of wealth. They serve as international mediums of exchange that can be converted into cash anywhere in the world. In addition, precious metals, especially gold, silver, and platinum, have a ready, actively traded market, and can be melted and poured into various forms, thereby obliterating refinery marks and leaving them virtually untraceable."
Proposed Rule, 31 CFR Part 103, RIN 1506-AA28, Page 5
Occasionally collectors on the PCGS message board will make the comment that high dollar collections can end up at the pawn shop and that the best thing to do in regard to your collection is sell it for cash or gold and jointly gift it to the grand kids at $25,000 a year under the uniform gift acts. Another frequently suggested option is write a check to responsible young family members, have them cash it and progressively buy family coins from the parent or grandparent’s collection every year. Put their name on the lock box and keep the keys at home. No real cash changed hands and the family collection remains. Exactly how you accomplish this is based on many variables and you may need to talk to your tax specialist but the point is “scuff” the net worth off your books and build “cost basis” on theirs and do it every year.
Family heirlooms that are being used as intergenerational wealth transfer mechanisms need to have durable long-term value. Unfortunately sky-high collector premiums over intrinsic value are based on very thin markets that are directly dependent on the currently existing structural preferences of collector’s sets and the disposable income of US citizens. If anything were to happen to either one over the younger family member’s lifetime the heirlooms’ importance as a long-term family asset is compromised. This is why many prefer to stay completely way from numismatics when managing family wealth but this is likely an error. Just as the silver ware example in the opening was an improved form of the base material so too rare coins are a superior form of holding material that has been regarded as money for thousands of years because they have dual supply and demand curves.
An excellent example of this type of favorable dual structure can be seen in high bullion content modern eagles with low mintages. Most attractive classic key date coinage issued in the last century have matured into the 50 to 100+ times melt value range and have become almost completely divorced from the value of the metal they are struck on. Key date modern silver, gold and platinum Eagles that are still in their infancy can be purchased for 2 to 3 times their intrinsic value in many cases. The chart below illustrates the approximate price behavior of a high intrinsic value key date as its series progresses from infancy to full maturity. Constant dollar price maturity tends to show up within 30-50 years after a series is no longer available from governmental inventory or sooner.
When the rarest coin in a large series or a coin with a rare design (type coin) can be picked up for less than 2-3 times melt you are essentially acquiring a highly liquid, low risk art form that has the potential to display white hot appreciation during the growth phase of its life cycle. By the time this process is complete its normal to see the four rarest coins in any given set to represent over 50% of the entire sets value and that’s why its good policy to stay away from coinage new or old that’s trading for more than about 1.5 times melt if its common in its set. If you are going to pay over twice melt you might as well be buying the lead coin of a young set.
For Example: Buying a 20 coin mint state series whose common dates trade just over melt that includes four cheap strong keys is a beautiful thing because 75% of the set purchase price is bullion and four strong keys as they mature have no problem driving the whole set to multiples of melt. If precious metals go hyperbolic at some point because our nations long-term financial mismanagement catches up with us intrinsic value expansion will carry the day. If its morning in America again and metals prices become soft, a good-looking popular and affordable series can display excellent long-term growth.
The main point of all this is to couple young family members youth with the long appreciation cycle that rare coinage can create without absorbing sky high collector premiums. What other potential family heirlooms can we buy that enjoys the benefit of having been struck on the materials humanity has regarded as money for most of recorded history and enjoys a relatively bullet proof value floor as a result?
A rare silver, gold or platinum Eagle collection:
Is not someone else’s liability and as such cannot be defaulted on.
Is not impacted by inflation or foreign investors willingness to hold dollars.
Can appreciate in constant dollar terms for 30-50 years as the series mature.
Can be held almost indefinitely.
Is not subject to property tax.
Offers excellent liquidity.
Normally survives bankruptcy.
Serves as an invisible form of wealth.
Minimizes the impact of means testing.
Can be exchanged in large or small increments.
Is an enjoyable form of long-term savings.
Allan Greenspan made the comment in the “Age of Turbulence” that “How governments finesse the transfer of real resources from the shrinking shares of their populations who make up their work force to a growing retirement population is likely to be the defining question of the next quarter century.” 401K, IRA, Keogh, and insurance policy shelters all have the same set of problems; they are high profile targets with huge monetary value, owned by a narrow voting block, accessible by amending currently existing tax law and the cost of enforcement is negligible. Whatever high potential, high intrinsic value family heirlooms you choose to transfer under the currently exiting laws are effectively off the table. Systematically move as much as you can off the table between now and 2017 when the CBO models indicate the real Federal bills begin to come due and our deficits are no longer discretionary but structural.
$10 Proof Gold Buchanon 5,448
$10 Unc Gold Buchanon 3,607
Eric
I'm betting the number of unc. Buchanans struck (so far) is less than the number sold. Backorder date is now 10/12, and advancing one day each day.
Of course if the Mint strikes additional Buchanans, it doesn't much matter.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I understand that it is hard to predict what the Mint will do, but is it possible to have a rough time frame to expect when we will get a Yes or No from the mint? Or put it in other word, if the Mint has already placed an order to West Point to mint more Buch, how long does it take to have them delivered?
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
Hard to keep up.....
Thanks so much for this extremely worthwhile yet sobering - if not depressing - article. The degree to which the hard working, successful citizens of this nation are punished just astounds me.
Ron
Not to pick a fight with OP but I must take major exception to the idea that great wealth for future generations can achieved quite so easily.
First the bullet points................
Is not someone else’s liability and as such cannot be defaulted on.
.......If paid for in full and held personally you still face risk of home fires, robbery, crooked lawyers/family members and trust/will administrators.
Is not impacted by inflation or foreign investors willingness to hold dollars.
.............it is most certainly impacted by inflation. In fact that accounts for a large part of last 100 years of gains. Less reccognized is that it is also impacted by lack of inflation and risk of deflation. Also faces risk of swings in base PM price with added variable of spot metal price change vs. inflation over same time period. Even if spot price rises it may lag natural inflation rate. Also risk of changes in supply and demand. Not something to easily discount. Doubt it?? Look at effect of Comstock load on price of silver.
Can appreciate in constant dollar terms for 30-50 years as the series mature.
...........Perhaps but past examples of such performance do not guarantee future gains.
Can be held almost indefinitely.
...............in the elemental sense yes but practically speaking safety, storage, transport, etc. are major concerns.
Is not subject to property tax.
................Tax law is very fluid. I expect in some locales taxes on "Real property" could now or in the future be interpeted to include holdings of PMs and other collectables.
Offers excellent liquidity.
...............Very questionable. Right now PM trading has no restrictions but that could easily change. Do you sell for spot less 3-5-10-20%?? Depends on your skill/knowledge or more importantly your heirs skill, knowledge and efforts. Sell 100K today and get paid today. Not so easy. Sell a $1000 in PM with a $99K numismatic premium for 100K quickly. Certainly more difficult without your accepting a haircut but may far more difficult in the future. Who can predict demand and laws/regulations 10-50-100 years from now??
Normally survives bankruptcy.
...............May depend on the laws of your locale, skill of your creditors in finding your assets and your tolerance of fraud.
Serves as an invisible form of wealth.
...................Invisible or perceived "wealth" is of no value unless it can be used to pay bills or make purchases. Likely will be far more difficult to avoid tax consequences of a sale in the future. Just consider recent 1099 reporting changes. Also in the end it comes down to your tolerance of tax evasion. Whether it is bartered or sold a potential taxable event will occur if a profit is made.
Minimizes the impact of means testing.
......................Again it comes down to that pesky question of reporting requirements and your compliance.
Can be exchanged in large or small increments.
...............................large increments will almost certainly become more difficult and more visible in the future.
Is an enjoyable form of long-term savings.
..............................certainly enjoyable. Just how good a form of savings remains to be seen.
You will have to be right in your choice of coins, will have to conserve and preserve them for many decades, will have to educate your heirs, will have to be right about direction of PM prices, inflation and collecting interests and finally you will remain subject to all local, state and federal laws.
<< <i>"A rare silver, gold or platinum Eagle collection" as a source of wealth for future generations...............
Not to pick a fight with OP but I must take major exception to the idea that great wealth for future generations can achieved quite so easily.
First the bullet points................
Is not someone else’s liability and as such cannot be defaulted on.
.......If paid for in full and held personally you still face risk of home fires, robbery, crooked lawyers/family members and trust/will administrators.
ANSWER: Someone can always rip you off if you handle it poorly. Get a safe deposit box with the kids name on it.
Is not impacted by inflation or foreign investors willingness to hold dollars.
.............it is most certainly impacted by inflation. In fact that accounts for a large part of last 100 years of gains. Less reccognized is that it is also impacted by lack of inflation and risk of deflation. Also faces risk of swings in base PM price with added variable of spot metal price change vs. inflation over same time period. Even if spot price rises it may lag natural inflation rate. Also risk of changes in supply and demand. Not something to easily discount. Doubt it?? Look at effect of Comstock load on price of silver.
Answer: The metals have been an imperfect store of wealth for over 4,000 years. Having to print money because the govt can't tax enough to cover its bills will not hurt the metals or the coins struck on them.
Foreigners may not want to hold your sovereign debt (the dollars as a federal reserve note is a form of sovereign debt) but they will except your gold. See the balance sheet of the BIS where a currency swap showed up this spring to help covers a pigs debt.
Deflation could hurt the metals but I did not claim resistance to deflation. I think the precious metals may be a little high right now because we may get a break in the 2012-2015 period before our off the books debts really start to kick out butt in the 2017-2025 period. As far as another Comstock load showing up and wrecking the price of the metals it is important to note that it is getting harder and harder to find excellent large ore bodies world wide. They may find some more and it may have an impact on the spot price for a while but the price of mining keeps going up (permits, enviro, energy cost) and this is the long term price floor for anything.
Can appreciate in constant dollar terms for 30-50 years as the series mature.
...........Perhaps but past examples of such performance do not guarantee future gains.
Answer: Did not claim that it would for certain I said it "can".
Can be held almost indefinitely.
...............in the elemental sense yes but practically speaking safety, storage, transport, etc. are major concerns.
Answer I have friends that have held family collections for 150 years....
Is not subject to property tax.
................Tax law is very fluid. I expect in some locales taxes on "Real property" could now or in the future be interpeted to include holdings of PMs and other collectibles.
Answer: There is almost no way to enforce a property tax on material that is not changing hands and has no numbers associated with it. See the treasury comments above. You do not have to believe me. They cant legislate no rain. Laws must be enforceable to be meaningful.
Offers excellent liquidity.
...............Very questionable. Right now PM trading has no restrictions but that could easily change. Do you sell for spot less 3-5-10-20%?? Depends on your skill/knowledge or more importantly your heirs skill, knowledge and efforts. Sell 100K today and get paid today. Not so easy. Sell a $1000 in PM with a $99K numismatic premium for 100K quickly. Certainly more difficult without your accepting a haircut but may far more difficult in the future. Who can predict demand and laws/regulations 10-50-100 years from now??
Answer: I cant predict laws and regulations in the out years other than to say most classes of assets in households with a high net worth are going to get killed and you need to find a way to give yourself a fighting chance. Pay your taxes now and get into things that are hard to access and have long term value. Build the kids and grand kids cost basis through the currently existing uniform gift laws.
Normally survives bankruptcy.
...............May depend on the laws of your locale, skill of your creditors in finding your assets and your tolerance of fraud.
Answer: You speak in theory. Well before you go bankrupt start selling off you material to other family members or good friends at face or intrinsic. The bottom line is most people that I have known that got in financial trouble did in fact find ways to see to it that their collections survived. Its only fraud if you don't think ahead. I have to assume that you have common sense.
Serves as an invisible form of wealth.
...................Invisible or perceived "wealth" is of no value unless it can be used to pay bills or make purchases. Likely will be far more difficult to avoid tax consequences of a sale in the future. Just consider recent 1099 reporting changes. Also in the end it comes down to your tolerance of tax evasion. Whether it is bartered or sold a potential taxable event will occur if a profit is made.
Answer: Wealth is of no value if you cant use it to pay your bills. Thats true of all things. I am not saying you should break the law. Pay your taxes now and get the kids basis up so when they use it they will only owe on the growth in the asset. If you dont get the net worth off your books if you are wealthy the death tax is going to rape you.
Minimizes the impact of means testing.
......................Again it comes down to that pesky question of reporting requirements and your compliance.
Answer: Yes but at least thats a decision you can make at that time.
Can be exchanged in large or small increments.
...............................large increments will almost certainly become more difficult and more visible in the future.
Answer: True for everything.
Is an enjoyable form of long-term savings.
..............................certainly enjoyable. Just how good a form of savings remains to be seen.
You will have to be right in your choice of coins, will have to conserve and preserve them for many decades, will have to educate your heirs, will have to be right about direction of PM prices, inflation and collecting interests and finally you will remain subject to all local, state and federal laws. >>
Answer: T Bills always work.
It's possible (not certain) that Buffalo proofs and First Spouse coins will be priced up another increment by the Mint this week.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Let's say he is concerned with the continued devaluation of the US Dollar as well as the continual erosion of potential buyers of high-end coins. So, liquidity is a concern. Also, let's say he is considering the sell of his collectible coins and taking the funds and just buying gold and/or silver bullion. What would you tell him to do in this scenario?
Let's say all coins have the box, COA, etc and none are slabbed.
1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2006 $10.00 1/4 GOLD UNC W
1- 2006 $25.00 1/2 GOLD UNC W
1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2007 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2007 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2008 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2008 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo UNC
1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo UNC
1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo
1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo
1- 2007 $20.00 UHR
I would tell him to hold his coins because in 10 - 15 - 20+ years from now he will have transportable intrinsic wealth that can leave a lasting family legacy (is this too over the top?)!
Let me know your opinions!
<< <i>Although they can sell the Buchanans well into 2011, they can't mint anymore after 12/31/2010. So by law, they've got 3 more months to strike more... >>
They could produce the remaining max mintage with no problem by then,
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
<< <i>If you had a friend who made several purchases from the US Mint in recent years what would you tell him to do?
Let's say he is concerned with the continued devaluation of the US Dollar as well as the continual erosion of potential buyers of high-end coins. So, liquidity is a concern. Also, let's say he is considering the sell of his collectible coins and taking the funds and just buying gold and/or silver bullion. What would you tell him to do in this scenario?
Let's say all coins have the box, COA, etc and none are slabbed.
1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2006 $10.00 1/4 GOLD UNC W
1- 2006 $25.00 1/2 GOLD UNC W
1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2007 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2007 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2008 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2008 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo UNC
1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo UNC
1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo
1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo
1- 2007 $20.00 UHR
I would tell him to hold his coins because in 10 - 15 - 20+ years from now he will have transportable intrinsic wealth that can leave a lasting family legacy (is this too over the top?)!
Let me know your opinions! >>
I would not think so. I would even add some more gold to that portfolio. let's say the 2010 AGE proof set to start with, and a few First Souses.
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
<< <i>They could produce the remaining max mintage with no problem by then, >>
Possible, but extremely unlikely.
Let's face it guys, the sales numbers arent exactly jumping for the last two sales reports - and I dont expect them to trend up anytime soon. Without a sizeable backlog of orders, why would the USM ever strike more? Think about it. This is not an operation that strikes piece by piece as orders come in.
Especially when gold is rising and the possibility of another price increase looms.
My opinion is that the proof will be the short strike of the liberty subset proofs. That alone will make it a winner. Not to mention it's great design and the only liberty subset design to be "right" for the metal and "right" for the size and denomination (Liberty $10 Gold).
<< <i>If you had a friend who made several purchases from the US Mint in recent years what would you tell him to do?
Let's say he is concerned with the continued devaluation of the US Dollar as well as the continual erosion of potential buyers of high-end coins. So, liquidity is a concern. Also, let's say he is considering the sell of his collectible coins and taking the funds and just buying gold and/or silver bullion. What would you tell him to do in this scenario?
Let's say all coins have the box, COA, etc and none are slabbed.
1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2006 $10.00 1/4 GOLD UNC W
1- 2006 $25.00 1/2 GOLD UNC W
1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2007 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2007 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2008 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2008 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo UNC
1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo UNC
1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo
1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo
1- 2007 $20.00 UHR
I would tell him to hold his coins because in 10 - 15 - 20+ years from now he will have transportable intrinsic wealth that can leave a lasting family legacy (is this too over the top?)!
Let me know your opinions! >>
WOW first post after 3 yrs of joining.
<< <i>If you had a friend who made several purchases from the US Mint in recent years what would you tell him to do?
Let's say he is concerned with the continued devaluation of the US Dollar as well as the continual erosion of potential buyers of high-end coins. So, liquidity is a concern. Also, let's say he is considering the sell of his collectible coins and taking the funds and just buying gold and/or silver bullion. What would you tell him to do in this scenario?
Let's say all coins have the box, COA, etc and none are slabbed.
1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W.......SELL IT TO ME
1- 2006 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2006 $10.00 1/4 GOLD UNC W.........SELL IT TO ME, JOHN WANTS IT
1- 2006 $25.00 1/2 GOLD UNC W.........SELL IT TO ME, JOHN WANTS IT
1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2006 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2007 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W
1- 2007 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W
1- 2008 $25.00 ¼ Platinum UNC W........SELL IT TO ME
1- 2008 $50.00 ½ Platinum UNC W........SELL IT TO ME
1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo UNC............SELL IT TO ME
1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo UNC
1- 2008 $10.00 1/4 Buffalo
1- 2008 $25.00 1/2 Buffalo
1- 2007 $20.00 UHR
IF YOU DONT NEED THE MONEY FOLLOW WARREN BUFFETS ADVICE..... SIT DOWN ON GOOD ASSETS AND LET THEM MATURE.
I would tell him to hold his coins because in 10 - 15 - 20+ years from now he will have transportable intrinsic wealth that can leave a lasting family legacy (is this too over the top?)!
Let me know your opinions! >>
My answer depends on what else your friend has in his portfolio. I've invested in all of those same coins, and I am quite attached to them. However, if they were my only assets then I might be tempted to cash in some of them in order to cement the gains that they have enjoyed due to increases in their individual premiums.
But, if those coins were only a portion of my total assets, which they are - I would evaluate things as we go along. It also depends on the nature of your friend's other assets. If those other assets were paper-based, I would set about to liquidate the paper assets and to phase into pms gradually over time instead of selling the heirloom coins. If those assets were already mostly pms, I would stand pat.
If I had to think of a situation in which I would sell the heirlooms in order to buy pms, it would be a situation in which the heirlooms were my only financial assets. In that case, I might be tempted to sell about 1/2 of them in order to diversify into pm bullion and a little cash.
The problem with selling them when you aren't forced to sell them is that you automatically trigger a taxable event, and you incur additional transaction costs. There is really no need to do either. The flip side is that these heirloom coins may lose some of their premium as bullion goes higher, so the financial leverage is actually less as pms increase.
But remember - you've already seen gains whether you cash them in or not, and the heirloom coins will still continue to do their job of protecting your purchasing power as pms continue to rise.
On balance, the reasons for holding outweigh the reasons for trading them in, at this time. My opinion.
Tax laws can change at the whim of the politicians. With pms, you can decide what your position will be. With paper, you cannot. If the politicians want to make criminals of every pm owner, they will do it. That's when the power to make decisions becomes even more important.
I knew it would happen.
Sounds like production started on Sept 20. From the photo, looks like a decent coin.
Full article is HERE
Which mint will strike them?
Will there be a mintmark?
How much of a premium will be charged to distributors?
Will initial retail demand drive prices way up?
Will the 2010 issues be the keys to the series (at 100,000 each)?
-- and --
Will albums be available for the complete set?
What are the chances for an MS70?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Recession? What recession?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>This image was just posted in Numismatic News of the coin, provided by the Mint.
Sounds like production started on Sept 20. From the photo, looks like a decent coin.
Full article is HERE >>
And silver is at a 30 year high.