<< <i>Mint state Lititia was at 3152 as of the close of business sunday night. She sold for 3.5 more days and I know of at least 25 in total that were ordered by guys I know in the last 24 hours. Expecting 3,200-3,400 to show up on next weeks sales report less returns. Time will tell but sub 3,000 is not likely.
>>
That is right for Letita and they also pulled Julia which had sales of only 2861.
So Letitia 3152 and Julia 2861.
If Julia sold less than 139 in those 3 days then it may break under 3000 assuming the numbers are accurate. >>
I doubt there were many last minute sales of Julia since I don't think anyone was expecting the Mint to pull her yet. Also, sub 5k on the proofs.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
i just located my voucher for 8 coins as part of the platinum cc benefits. it expired 4/9/10
do you think pcgs will let me use it.
i did renew and have another but it would be a shame to lose out on this benefit.
i am going to call them shortly but i thought i would ask the board what they think.
thank you >>
I wouldn't want to say No since you don't like that but PCGS doesn't seem very good about being flexible on things especially since more than just a few days have gone by.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Don't let what just happened with the mint state Julia Gold escape your attention. This coin will be the Hawaiian of this series in my opinion. This coin has the obverse of a beautiful young woman (who helped get Texas into the union) that owes no apologies to the typical image of liberty seen in the 1800s. The reverse shows a lovely young woman in a long gown dancing at a ball with the president. It is struck on half an once of pure gold and has a mintage of 2650-2900 more than likely. If this coin does not come back up for sale its THE gold coin for sale in 2009, 2010 and likely for the next few years.
We have been expecting 2009 to be the bottom for this series and looks like it was.
Like I said if this coin does not come back up its is going to be A SERIOUS, MAYBE THE SERIOUS COIN OF THIS 40 COIN SET. The only exception being the key to the Liberty Sub Set. I need five coins.... a Julia and the 4 liberty issues. I was hoping the book would not ruin Julia. I am so glad she has closed before it hit the stands.
<< <i>Let's just make sure Julia doesnt show up under "Last Chance" in the next couple days.........before we jump to conclusions... >>
Letitia doesn't show at all in the US mint catalog. Julia still shows, but when you click on it it goes to the Julia Tyler medal set. I really hope Julia goes back up for sale, I would love to buy a couple.
What reason should the 2009 Polk and Taylor be higher mintage than the 2009 Julia?? As of march the 2009 Taylor mintage was just under 1,800.
They already removed the cancel box from my Julia UNC order and must be shipping. I was hoping they would wait a week to ship so I could see the next sales report, but since it looks like it will be under 3000 I won't cancel.
Who would have guessed they do a gold coin with that low a mintage. The Liberty will be the next release and then Mary Lincoln, both of those should cruise through 3000 to 4000 coins no problem.
What reason should the 2009 Polk and Taylor be higher mintage than the 2009 Julia??
Polk has three more months of sales and is already at 2810 so it should break 3000.
Taylor has 6 months to go and is at 2271. That one could be close although people will be more aware of that coin if Julia ends up under 3000 is my guess and will buy too many.
I realize that PCGS is just a guide but I was looking at platinum prices tonight int the PCGS price guide and see that only one issue is green. It is the 2008 W $50 burnished plat. My question is how come the price of this coin is at $2000 and the First Strike Issue is priced at $1350. Has the FS label turned into a liability?
<< <i>Let's just make sure Julia doesnt show up under "Last Chance" in the next couple days.........before we jump to conclusions... >>
I agree it (Julia in general and mint state Julia in particular) could come back up that's why I used the word "if" twice.
Eric >>
If you look at the Mint site it says Julia Tyler is "sold out". That seems pretty clear to me. If they wanted to move it to last chance, seems they would have done it already.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
According to the US Mint Site........It does state that Julia Tyler is "SOLD OUT" ...............
2009 First Spouse Series One-Half Ounce Gold Uncirculated Coin - Julia Tyler (X35)
Price: $766.00
Sold Out This is the third coin released in 2009 in the First Spouse Gold Coin Series and features Julia Tyler, who was the second wife of John Tyler. It is a one-half ounce 24-karat gold coin struck in uncirculated condition, giving it a satin-like finish. The obverse features a portrait of Julia Tyler and the reverse depicts the President and Julia Tyler dancing at a White House ball. This coin is encapsulated and packaged in a custom-designed, highly polished, plush-lined presentation case accompanied by a Certificate of Authenticity signed by the Director of the United States Mint.
<< <i>I dont follow the 2008 buffalos very closely, but apmex is loaded with them. Are people just taking some profits or have they hit the wall?
Gary >>
I'm guessing both. These are due for a pullback--and APMEX's prices aren't exactly cheap. I'm guessing there's still a pretty big supply of "extras" out there and with these high prices, some are liable to come spilling onto the market.
What's just as interesting to me is the apparent shortage of proof platinum eagles. APMEX just doesn't seem to be able to keep them in stock. I'm guessing they keep flowing to IRAs? For coins that apparently have little collector interest, they are mighty difficult to find at reasonable prices.
Proof First Spouse Gold Year 2007 Washington ...19,167 2007 Adams ...17,149 2007 Jefferson ...19,815 2007 Madison ...17,943 2008 Monroe ...7,800 2008 Adams ...6,581 2008 Jackson ...7,684 2008 Van Buren ...7,364 2009 Harrison ...6,200 2009 Lititia Tyler ...5,000 2009 Julia Tyler ...4,800
Roughly
Mint State First Spouse Gold Year 2007 Washington ...17,661 2007 Adams ...17,142 2007 Jefferson ...19,823 2007 Madison ...12,340 2008 Monroe ...4,462 2008 Adams ...3,885 2008 Jackson ...4,609 2008 Van Buren ...4,191 2009 Harrison ...3,500 2009 Lititia Tyler ...3,200 2009 Julia Tyler ...2,800
At this point it's just too hard to predict what will Spouse will emerge as the lowest mintage because we don't know what the gold price will do over the next six yrs of the program. I have a hunch that gold will keep going up during that time which means sales will be in the toilet, even more so than now. THe high price I think is weeding out folks who initially intended to keep up w/ the series. After the Buchanan Liberty and the Mary Todd we are enter a long multi-year period of nondescript, unknown, ignored and downright homely spouses. Couple that with a high gold price and I think you'll see several low-to-mid 2000 unc spouses.
Eric, thanks for posting these #s. Nice little graph there!
MsM, actually the rare date plat proofs seem to come up more often than the typical garden variety. Right now, they've got a 2004 1/4-oz, I think. And that does seem to be typical. Those that might command a premium are the ones you tend to see. The others are just vacuumed up into, well, wherever proof platinums are going right now!
If I were inclined to try and catch the low mintage Gold Spouse, Julia looks pretty good at the moment, but I wouldn't rule out Taylor or Harrison for the following reason - it does look as if gold is going higher before too long. May is typically the doldrums month for precious metals, and May is over. Besides that, there are too many factors around the world that point to currency devaluation and/or international tensions that could impact gold to the upside.
Whenever gold takes another step up the ladder, the Gold Spouse mintages get hit. If the Mint pricing takes another $100 step up, I'd expect alot of would-be buyers to back down, especially in this economy. If gold rises quickly, it could dampen current sales of any Spouse from now until the end of the series. The good news (if you happen to hold any quantity of these) is that if gold goes up, it lifts all boats.
The bad news is that if gold goes up, it gets harder to justify buying more of anything. But even that kind of bad news isn't too bad, because that's exactly when you need to be prepared to step up swinging.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I wish the Mint would reduce the maximum combined mintage to 7k. With that I think we would see some early sellouts and more excitement in the series overall. Even with that they might not see lower mintage numbers than what Julia will be. I don't think the mint is good at matching demand with production but it appears that they are trying to do better with the reduction to 15k.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
If I were inclined to try and catch the low mintage Gold Spouse, Julia looks pretty good at the moment, but I wouldn't rule out Taylor or Harrison for the following reason - it does look as if gold is going higher before too long. May is typically the doldrums month for precious metals, and May is over. Besides that, there are too many factors around the world that point to currency devaluation and/or international tensions that could impact gold to the upside.
Whenever gold takes another step up the ladder, the Gold Spouse mintages get hit. If the Mint pricing takes another $100 step up, I'd expect alot of would-be buyers to back down, especially in this economy. If gold rises quickly, it could dampen current sales of any Spouse from now until the end of the series. The good news (if you happen to hold any quantity of these) is that if gold goes up, it lifts all boats.
The bad news is that if gold goes up, it gets harder to justify buying more of anything. But even that kind of bad news isn't too bad, because that's exactly when you need to be prepared to step up swinging. >>
I have also felt the pinch with rising gold pricing. I look at the pricing for the spouse and think that it wasn't that long ago when we could get an ounce for the price of a half ounce coin now. The low mintages are now the only thing that keeps me looking at these but it is getting more difficult to pull the trigger. Even so, a small voice tells me that is the time to buy.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I have also felt the pinch with rising gold pricing. I look at the pricing for the spouse and think that it wasn't that long ago when we could get an ounce for the price of a half ounce coin now. The low mintages are now the only thing that keeps me looking at these but it is getting more difficult to pull the trigger. Even so, a small voice tells me that is the time to buy.
That's exactly my point. Some of my best buys from the Mint were right when I was consciously thinking, "boy, this is expensive", but if I hadn't bought when I did, I wouldn't be sitting on some nice holdings now.
One of the best things that helped me with my decisions is this forum and this thread, where we are constantly re-hashing the variables that create modern rarities.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
It's instructive to note that for the last five or so unc. spouse releases, they have been debuting w/ at least 1000 sales in the first 2 weeks of issue, which no doubt comprise the hardcore collectors and the First Strike/ Early Release seekers. Assuming an average take rate of 20/ week for the remainder of the year of offering, which I don't believe is too low if you follow weekly sales data for some of these, you arrive at a floor of about 2000. Of course that assumes they are offered for a full year, which hasn't always been the case obviously --- J tyler was on sale for less than 10 months.
<< <i> I have also felt the pinch with rising gold pricing. I look at the pricing for the spouse and think that it wasn't that long ago when we could get an ounce for the price of a half ounce coin now. The low mintages are now the only thing that keeps me looking at these but it is getting more difficult to pull the trigger. Even so, a small voice tells me that is the time to buy. >>
Yes, it's times like these that are truly delicious--what I think Eric called "the perfect storm" of bad economic times and high PM prices. Of course sometimes it backfires--like when I bought the 2008 1/2-oz proof plat for $1200 from the Mint--only to have it sell for half of that a few months later. Most of the time it works out really well. Even when PM prices drop--as they surely will--I think most of us will be glad to have our ultra-low mintage coins sitting in the SDB!
<< <i> I have also felt the pinch with rising gold pricing. I look at the pricing for the spouse and think that it wasn't that long ago when we could get an ounce for the price of a half ounce coin now. The low mintages are now the only thing that keeps me looking at these but it is getting more difficult to pull the trigger. Even so, a small voice tells me that is the time to buy. >>
Yes, it's times like these that are truly delicious--what I think Eric called "the perfect storm" of bad economic times and high PM prices. Of course sometimes it backfires--like when I bought the 2008 1/2-oz proof plat for $1200 from the Mint--only to have it sell for half of that a few months later. Most of the time it works out really well. Even when PM prices drop--as they surely will--I think most of us will be glad to have our ultra-low mintage coins sitting in the SDB! >>
Yes, the low mintage numbers should act as somewhat of a hedge in case of lowering pm values. That is why I tend to favor these over Eagles in spite of the surcharge.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
You can buy a lot of rarity in the classic gold eagle and half eagle series due to the fact there's little pressure on the keys because of the cost of collecting the complete series. Add to that fact that the majority of the first spouse coins are ugly, I see little demand for this series in future years. IMHO there are better places to spend your money.
<< <i>You can buy a lot of rarity in the classic gold eagle and half eagle series due to the fact there's little pressure on the keys because of the cost of collecting the complete series. Add to that fact that the majority of the first spouse coins are ugly, I see little demand for this series in future years. IMHO there are better places to spend your money. >>
Thanks for reminding us of that, GAT. Certainly makes me take another look at them.
<< <i>Proof First Spouse Gold NN Numbers Year 2007 Washington ...19,167 .........*20,000 2007 Adams ...17,149 .........*20,000 2007 Jefferson ...19,815 .........*20,000 2007 Madison ...17,943 .........*18,355 2008 Monroe ...7,800 ......... *7,933 2008 Adams ...6,581 ......... *7,454 2008 Jackson ...7,684 ......... *7,806 2008 Van Buren ...7,364 ......... *7,515 2009 Harrison ...6,200 ......... *6,250 2009 Lititia Tyler ...5,000 ......... 5,163 2009 Julia Tyler ...4,800 ......... 4,830
Roughly
Mint State First Spouse Gold Year 2007 Washington ...17,661 ........*20,000 2007 Adams ...17,142 ........*20,000 2007 Jefferson ...19,823 ........*20,000 2007 Madison ...12,340 ........*12,541 2008 Monroe ...4,462 ........* 4,519 2008 Adams ...3,885 ........* 4,223 2008 Jackson ...4,609 ........* 4,754 2008 Van Buren ...4,191 ........* 4,334 2009 Harrison ...3,500 ........* 3,537 2009 Lititia Tyler ...3,200 ........ 3,152 2009 Julia Tyler ...2,800 ........ 2,861
<< <i>You can buy a lot of rarity in the classic gold eagle and half eagle series due to the fact there's little pressure on the keys because of the cost of collecting the complete series. Add to that fact that the majority of the first spouse coins are ugly, I see little demand for this series in future years. IMHO there are better places to spend your money. >>
Ugly has only little to do with the coins value. There are a lot of ugly old and new coins that command a pretty penny. Besides, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. That being said, I think classic gold coinage can be attractive now that the intrinsic value is catching up with the numismatic value on a lot of the common dates.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I see the ascension of some pricing with regards to the lower mintage (I and other's hope) and the the desencion of mintage numbers in correlation with the upper prices (I still hope).
Isn't wonderful that you can still buy, from some dealers, the Gold Julia and others for less than the current Mint pricing.
Albeit, the Mint packaging is nice, but it does take up room and the slabs present the Gold Spouses well.
At around $700 for a slabbed Spouse, I am currently only gambling $100 above spot. Not bad odds.
I may wait on The 2010 Proof Gold Buffs for a bit more time......
<< <i>Guys the First Hag numbers that are not rounded are FINAL FINALS the ones rounded to 100 are rough numbers. >>
Also recall the estimated vs. final numbers for some of the 2006-2008 plats. Considering recent history (including final numbers for the earlier spouses, above), the apparent low mintages for the Tyler spouses could go even lower!
<< <i>The naysayers just can't help themselves, and yet they fail to see their own favorite coins through the same prism. They have no issue with some coins that sell for 100,000X face just because they are the designated as market favorites by virtue of a couple of Sheldon grading points.
When the market for classics got too stagnant, they had to cut the grading scale into finer increments in order to have the ability to squeeze more money out of collectors. The first dealers who supported that idea were the ones who benefited most, but nobody really talks about that because the money's been made now and the next step is stickers and plus grading. I'm not saying that TPGs don't have a purpose, but I do find it ironic when the Mint plays the dealer game with unlimited government funds and on a grander scale than the dealers are able to muster.
And these are the same people who bemoan a Modern Bullion coin that doubles in a year because of popularity with its collecting base. On one hand they pooh-pooh Modern Bullion as being somehow lesser than their favorite classics, but yet they whine and complain about "losing money" that would otherwise be spent in "their market'.
Interesting. I always thought that it was MY money, and I didn't know that I was obligated to spend it anywhere other than what I want to spend it on, except for the abominable health care insurance that was crammed down our throats. So, I have difficulty seeing how something can be dissed on one hand and labelled as a usurper on the other hand. After awhile, it sounds like a broken record. >>
jmski-
Just checking in on the BEST thread on the boards after a few days off....
Quick ?: I've noticed that the 2008 W AGE UNC $50 is selling for around $1500. Given it's low mintage, this seems undervalued. What am I missing?
I don't think you're missing anything. There's still a lot of market uncertainty about the platinums, and they continue to be plagued by the problems which made them low mintage coins to begin with, namely a small collector base.
In my opinion, there are a number of factors operating to keep prices low, including: (1) small collector base, (2) comparatively high $ price, (3) cash-poor market.
Small collector base means low demand; even at 2,500 mintages, most collectors or speculators interested already have one. The comparatively high $ price doesn't mean that this is a huge premium over melt or issue price-- we can all name many examples where a coin sells for many times the issue price or melt value (for instance, the 1995 w silver eagle or the JR $5 gold unc). However, at the end of the day, $1,500 is still a lot of money, and collectors with that kind of budget have many other options to choose from, including nice examples of well-established keys like the 1909s vdb, 1955 double die, 1942/1 dime, etc., etc. Factor in the uncertain market conditions--- continued high unemployment, stock market fluctuations, concerns about the world economy, euro, N. Korea, Israel, BP oil spill, US state economies, expected tax increases, etc... and people with $1500 might decide they'd rather stay in cash, or buy gold, or pay down debt...
I'm still a believer in the platinum w coins, especially in the long run, but in the short run, I think the $50 and $100 platinum coins are stuck in the 1 to 2x spot range. As a collector, if you want to pick one up, I don't see much downside. But from an investment standpoint, I don't know if there's any compelling reason to jump in -- at $1500, the numismatic premium is already built in (about 2x melt). If you're considering buying as a platinum play, there are coins available closer to melt, so really the most compelling reason to buy a 2008w $50 unc at $1500 is if you think the numismatic demand is going to push the numismatic premium up from here. Something needs to excite the collector market for these coins. Maybe Eric's book will help.
EDITED TO ADD: I'm an idiot. As others have pointed out, the question was about the $50 GOLD eagle. On which I have no opinion but defer to those who, unlike me, know how to read. However, with gold at $1200+, $1500 doesn't sound like a very high premium. >>
Thanks NYC!
I quickly wrote that post as one of my partners mentioned that he had purchased a few of them and wanted to know what he could get for them.
It turns out that he randomly chose the 2008 W Unc. AGE when he logged onto the Mint web site. I told him what the case would have been had he spoken with me first and chosen the $50 2008 Buffs instead. Explicatives followed.
<< <i>The 2008-W $50 AGE 1 ounce is a bargin at $1,500 imo. Heck generic 1 ounce AGEs sell for around $1,270.
The 2008-W AGE $50 is THE key date of all the 1 ounce AGE and the third lowest mintage of all AGEs with a 11,908 mintage. Only the famous 2008-W $10 AGE (8,883 mintage) and the 2007-W $25 AGE (11,455 mintage) have a lower mintage than the 2008-W $50 AGE. >>
yes, .05, this I pulled up the mintage data on the 2008 w AGE Uncs prior to posting my question and noted the relative mintage. That's why I asked if I was missing something. It just seemed undervalued. If my partner wants to sell for spot (which he said he does) I'll buy his four.
I pulled up the mintage data on the 2008 w AGE Uncs prior to posting my question and noted the relative mintage. That's why I asked if I was missing something. It just seemed undervalued. If my partner wants to sell for spot (which he said he does) I'll buy his four.
Raufus, there haven't been many sales of the 2008-W 1 oz. AGE lately, so I'm not too sure which way the market is trending, but.............in OGP, I show that most of the sales on ebay have ranged between $1,600 to $1,900.
In NGC or PCGS MS-69, the range has been $1,275 to $1,525.
In NGC or PCGS MS-70, the range has been $1,575 to $1,975.
Based on the data, I'd say that a fair value is around $1,550 for an arm-length transaction, but I'm holding onto mine in anticipation of higher prices.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>Mint state Lititia was at 3152 as of the close of business sunday night. She sold for 3.5 more days and I know of at least 25 in total that were ordered by guys I know in the last 24 hours. Expecting 3,200-3,400 to show up on next weeks sales report less returns. Time will tell but sub 3,000 is not likely.
>>
That is right for Letita and they also pulled Julia which had sales of only 2861.
So Letitia 3152
and Julia 2861.
If Julia sold less than 139 in those 3 days then it may break under 3000 assuming the numbers are accurate. >>
I doubt there were many last minute sales of Julia since I don't think anyone was expecting the Mint to pull her yet. Also, sub 5k on the proofs.
<< <i>Fivecents, where can you get an 2008-W 1 oz UNC GAE for less than $1600? >>
I can't find them for $1,500 either....I was quoting current greysheet bid.
<< <i>Let's not forget the 2006-W 1 oz. Reverse Proof, at 10,000 mintage. >>
Thanks jmski52....I completely forgot about the reverse proof AGE.
<< <i>I doubt there were many last minute sales of Julia since I don't think anyone was expecting the Mint to pull her yet. >>
I ordered a unc Leititia on June 2. I didn't order the Julia because I thought sells for it would end in September.
Should we be ordering the 2009 Polk and Taylor be for they are pulled from the US mint catalog????
<< <i>
<< <i>Fivecents, where can you get an 2008-W 1 oz UNC GAE for less than $1600? >>
I can't find them for $1,500 either....I was quoting current greysheet bid.
<< <i>Let's not forget the 2006-W 1 oz. Reverse Proof, at 10,000 mintage. >>
Thanks jmski52....I completely forgot about the reverse proof AGE.
<< <i>I doubt there were many last minute sales of Julia since I don't think anyone was expecting the Mint to pull her yet. >>
I ordered a unc Leititia on June 2. I didn't order the Julia because I thought sells for it would end in September.
Should we be ordering the 2009 Polk and Taylor be for they are pulled from the US mint catalog???? >>
No. Lets see how Loooooooow they can go.
i just located my voucher for 8 coins as part of the platinum cc benefits. it expired 4/9/10
do you think pcgs will let me use it.
i did renew and have another but it would be a shame to lose out on this benefit.
i am going to call them shortly but i thought i would ask the board what they think.
thank you
<< <i>i hate hearing no.
i just located my voucher for 8 coins as part of the platinum cc benefits. it expired 4/9/10
do you think pcgs will let me use it.
i did renew and have another but it would be a shame to lose out on this benefit.
i am going to call them shortly but i thought i would ask the board what they think.
thank you >>
I wouldn't want to say No since you don't like that but PCGS doesn't seem very good about being flexible on things especially since more than just a few days have gone by.
Don't let what just happened with the mint state Julia Gold escape your attention. This coin will be the Hawaiian of this series in my opinion. This coin has the obverse of a beautiful young woman (who helped get Texas into the union) that owes no apologies to the typical image of liberty seen in the 1800s. The reverse shows a lovely young woman in a long gown dancing at a ball with the president. It is struck on half an once of pure gold and has a mintage of 2650-2900 more than likely. If this coin does not come back up for sale its THE gold coin for sale in 2009, 2010 and likely for the next few years.
We have been expecting 2009 to be the bottom for this series and looks like it was.
Like I said if this coin does not come back up its is going to be A SERIOUS, MAYBE THE SERIOUS COIN OF THIS 40 COIN SET. The only exception being the key to the Liberty Sub Set. I need five coins.... a Julia and the 4 liberty issues. I was hoping the book would not ruin Julia. I am so glad she has closed before it hit the stands.
Eric
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Let's just make sure Julia doesnt show up under "Last Chance" in the next couple days.........before we jump to conclusions... >>
Letitia doesn't show at all in the US mint catalog. Julia still shows, but when you click on it it goes to the Julia Tyler medal set. I really hope Julia goes back up for sale, I would love to buy a couple.
What reason should the 2009 Polk and Taylor be higher mintage than the 2009 Julia?? As of march the 2009 Taylor mintage was just under 1,800.
<< <i>As far as the Julia coin, are we talking about the proof, the uncirculated or both? >>
The Uncirculated.
<< <i>Let's just make sure Julia doesnt show up under "Last Chance" in the next couple days.........before we jump to conclusions... >>
I agree it (Julia in general and mint state Julia in particular) could come back up that's why I used the word "if" twice.
Eric
Who would have guessed they do a gold coin with that low a mintage. The Liberty will be the next release and then Mary Lincoln, both of those should cruise through 3000 to 4000 coins no problem.
Polk has three more months of sales and is already at 2810 so it should break 3000.
Taylor has 6 months to go and is at 2271. That one could be close although people will be more aware of that coin if Julia ends up under 3000 is my guess and will buy too many.
<< <i>Taylor has 6 months to go and is at 2271. >>
Unless the Mint stops selling the Polk and Taylor early.
<< <i>
<< <i>Let's just make sure Julia doesnt show up under "Last Chance" in the next couple days.........before we jump to conclusions... >>
I agree it (Julia in general and mint state Julia in particular) could come back up that's why I used the word "if" twice.
Eric >>
If you look at the Mint site it says Julia Tyler is "sold out". That seems pretty clear to me. If they wanted to move it to last chance, seems they would have done it already.
Miles, about 4800 on the proof Julia and 2800 on the mint state but from this must be subtracted returns and added 3 days of sales.
Thanks.
Miles
2009 First Spouse Series One-Half Ounce Gold Uncirculated Coin - Julia Tyler (X35)
Price: $766.00
Sold Out
This is the third coin released in 2009 in the First Spouse Gold Coin Series and features Julia Tyler, who was the second wife of John Tyler. It is a one-half ounce 24-karat gold coin struck in uncirculated condition, giving it a satin-like finish. The obverse features a portrait of Julia Tyler and the reverse depicts the President and Julia Tyler dancing at a White House ball. This coin is encapsulated and packaged in a custom-designed, highly polished, plush-lined presentation case accompanied by a Certificate of Authenticity signed by the Director of the United States Mint.
Good job on those of you who got some of these! Looks like I missed the boat...
Gary
<< <i>I dont follow the 2008 buffalos very closely, but apmex is loaded with them. Are people just taking some profits or have they hit the wall?
Gary >>
I'm guessing both. These are due for a pullback--and APMEX's prices aren't exactly cheap. I'm guessing there's still a pretty big supply of "extras" out there and with these high prices, some are liable to come spilling onto the market.
What's just as interesting to me is the apparent shortage of proof platinum eagles. APMEX just doesn't seem to be able to keep them in stock. I'm guessing they keep flowing to IRAs? For coins that apparently have little collector interest, they are mighty difficult to find at reasonable prices.
(low mintage have anything to do with it? low demand? sounds like a "thin market" in stock market parlance. agree?)
Year
2007 Washington ...19,167
2007 Adams ...17,149
2007 Jefferson ...19,815
2007 Madison ...17,943
2008 Monroe ...7,800
2008 Adams ...6,581
2008 Jackson ...7,684
2008 Van Buren ...7,364
2009 Harrison ...6,200
2009 Lititia Tyler ...5,000
2009 Julia Tyler ...4,800
Roughly
Mint State First Spouse Gold
Year
2007 Washington ...17,661
2007 Adams ...17,142
2007 Jefferson ...19,823
2007 Madison ...12,340
2008 Monroe ...4,462
2008 Adams ...3,885
2008 Jackson ...4,609
2008 Van Buren ...4,191
2009 Harrison ...3,500
2009 Lititia Tyler ...3,200
2009 Julia Tyler ...2,800
Roughly
MsM, actually the rare date plat proofs seem to come up more often than the typical garden variety. Right now, they've got a 2004 1/4-oz, I think. And that does seem to be typical. Those that might command a premium are the ones you tend to see. The others are just vacuumed up into, well, wherever proof platinums are going right now!
If I were inclined to try and catch the low mintage Gold Spouse, Julia looks pretty good at the moment, but I wouldn't rule out Taylor or Harrison for the following reason - it does look as if gold is going higher before too long. May is typically the doldrums month for precious metals, and May is over. Besides that, there are too many factors around the world that point to currency devaluation and/or international tensions that could impact gold to the upside.
Whenever gold takes another step up the ladder, the Gold Spouse mintages get hit. If the Mint pricing takes another $100 step up, I'd expect alot of would-be buyers to back down, especially in this economy. If gold rises quickly, it could dampen current sales of any Spouse from now until the end of the series. The good news (if you happen to hold any quantity of these) is that if gold goes up, it lifts all boats.
The bad news is that if gold goes up, it gets harder to justify buying more of anything. But even that kind of bad news isn't too bad, because that's exactly when you need to be prepared to step up swinging.
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Volatility Rules!
If I were inclined to try and catch the low mintage Gold Spouse, Julia looks pretty good at the moment, but I wouldn't rule out Taylor or Harrison for the following reason - it does look as if gold is going higher before too long. May is typically the doldrums month for precious metals, and May is over. Besides that, there are too many factors around the world that point to currency devaluation and/or international tensions that could impact gold to the upside.
Whenever gold takes another step up the ladder, the Gold Spouse mintages get hit. If the Mint pricing takes another $100 step up, I'd expect alot of would-be buyers to back down, especially in this economy. If gold rises quickly, it could dampen current sales of any Spouse from now until the end of the series. The good news (if you happen to hold any quantity of these) is that if gold goes up, it lifts all boats.
The bad news is that if gold goes up, it gets harder to justify buying more of anything. But even that kind of bad news isn't too bad, because that's exactly when you need to be prepared to step up swinging. >>
I have also felt the pinch with rising gold pricing. I look at the pricing for the spouse and think that it wasn't that long ago when we could get an ounce for the price of a half ounce coin now. The low mintages are now the only thing that keeps me looking at these but it is getting more difficult to pull the trigger. Even so, a small voice tells me that is the time to buy.
That's exactly my point. Some of my best buys from the Mint were right when I was consciously thinking, "boy, this is expensive", but if I hadn't bought when I did, I wouldn't be sitting on some nice holdings now.
One of the best things that helped me with my decisions is this forum and this thread, where we are constantly re-hashing the variables that create modern rarities.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
I have also felt the pinch with rising gold pricing. I look at the pricing for the spouse and think that it wasn't that long ago when we could get an ounce for the price of a half ounce coin now. The low mintages are now the only thing that keeps me looking at these but it is getting more difficult to pull the trigger. Even so, a small voice tells me that is the time to buy. >>
Yes, it's times like these that are truly delicious--what I think Eric called "the perfect storm" of bad economic times and high PM prices. Of course sometimes it backfires--like when I bought the 2008 1/2-oz proof plat for $1200 from the Mint--only to have it sell for half of that a few months later. Most of the time it works out really well. Even when PM prices drop--as they surely will--I think most of us will be glad to have our ultra-low mintage coins sitting in the SDB!
<< <i>
<< <i>
I have also felt the pinch with rising gold pricing. I look at the pricing for the spouse and think that it wasn't that long ago when we could get an ounce for the price of a half ounce coin now. The low mintages are now the only thing that keeps me looking at these but it is getting more difficult to pull the trigger. Even so, a small voice tells me that is the time to buy. >>
Yes, it's times like these that are truly delicious--what I think Eric called "the perfect storm" of bad economic times and high PM prices. Of course sometimes it backfires--like when I bought the 2008 1/2-oz proof plat for $1200 from the Mint--only to have it sell for half of that a few months later. Most of the time it works out really well. Even when PM prices drop--as they surely will--I think most of us will be glad to have our ultra-low mintage coins sitting in the SDB! >>
Yes, the low mintage numbers should act as somewhat of a hedge in case of lowering pm values. That is why I tend to favor these over Eagles in spite of the surcharge.
<< <i>You can buy a lot of rarity in the classic gold eagle and half eagle series due to the fact there's little pressure on the keys because of the cost of collecting the complete series. Add to that fact that the majority of the first spouse coins are ugly, I see little demand for this series in future years. IMHO there are better places to spend your money. >>
Thanks for reminding us of that, GAT. Certainly makes me take another look at them.
<< <i>Proof First Spouse Gold NN Numbers
Year
2007 Washington ...19,167 .........*20,000
2007 Adams ...17,149 .........*20,000
2007 Jefferson ...19,815 .........*20,000
2007 Madison ...17,943 .........*18,355
2008 Monroe ...7,800 ......... *7,933
2008 Adams ...6,581 ......... *7,454
2008 Jackson ...7,684 ......... *7,806
2008 Van Buren ...7,364 ......... *7,515
2009 Harrison ...6,200 ......... *6,250
2009 Lititia Tyler ...5,000 ......... 5,163
2009 Julia Tyler ...4,800 ......... 4,830
Roughly
Mint State First Spouse Gold
Year
2007 Washington ...17,661 ........*20,000
2007 Adams ...17,142 ........*20,000
2007 Jefferson ...19,823 ........*20,000
2007 Madison ...12,340 ........*12,541
2008 Monroe ...4,462 ........* 4,519
2008 Adams ...3,885 ........* 4,223
2008 Jackson ...4,609 ........* 4,754
2008 Van Buren ...4,191 ........* 4,334
2009 Harrison ...3,500 ........* 3,537
2009 Lititia Tyler ...3,200 ........ 3,152
2009 Julia Tyler ...2,800 ........ 2,861
Roughly >>
<< <i>You can buy a lot of rarity in the classic gold eagle and half eagle series due to the fact there's little pressure on the keys because of the cost of collecting the complete series. Add to that fact that the majority of the first spouse coins are ugly, I see little demand for this series in future years. IMHO there are better places to spend your money. >>
Ugly has only little to do with the coins value. There are a lot of ugly old and new coins that command a pretty penny. Besides, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. That being said, I think classic gold coinage can be attractive now that the intrinsic value is catching up with the numismatic value on a lot of the common dates.
I see the ascension of some pricing with regards to the lower mintage (I and other's hope) and the the desencion of mintage numbers in correlation with the upper prices (I still hope).
Isn't wonderful that you can still buy, from some dealers, the Gold Julia and others for less than the current Mint pricing.
Albeit, the Mint packaging is nice, but it does take up room and the slabs present the Gold Spouses well.
At around $700 for a slabbed Spouse, I am currently only gambling $100 above spot. Not bad odds.
I may wait on The 2010 Proof Gold Buffs for a bit more time......
Miles
<< <i>Guys the First Hag numbers that are not rounded are FINAL FINALS the ones rounded to 100 are rough numbers. >>
Also recall the estimated vs. final numbers for some of the 2006-2008 plats. Considering recent history (including final numbers for the earlier spouses, above), the apparent low mintages for the Tyler spouses could go even lower!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>The naysayers just can't help themselves, and yet they fail to see their own favorite coins through the same prism. They have no issue with some coins that sell for 100,000X face just because they are the designated as market favorites by virtue of a couple of Sheldon grading points.
When the market for classics got too stagnant, they had to cut the grading scale into finer increments in order to have the ability to squeeze more money out of collectors. The first dealers who supported that idea were the ones who benefited most, but nobody really talks about that because the money's been made now and the next step is stickers and plus grading. I'm not saying that TPGs don't have a purpose, but I do find it ironic when the Mint plays the dealer game with unlimited government funds and on a grander scale than the dealers are able to muster.
And these are the same people who bemoan a Modern Bullion coin that doubles in a year because of popularity with its collecting base. On one hand they pooh-pooh Modern Bullion as being somehow lesser than their favorite classics, but yet they whine and complain about "losing money" that would otherwise be spent in "their market'.
Interesting. I always thought that it was MY money, and I didn't know that I was obligated to spend it anywhere other than what I want to spend it on, except for the abominable health care insurance that was crammed down our throats. So, I have difficulty seeing how something can be dissed on one hand and labelled as a usurper on the other hand. After awhile, it sounds like a broken record. >>
jmski-
Just checking in on the BEST thread on the boards after a few days off....
FANTASTIC post!! Thanks.
<< <i>Hi Folks-
Quick ?: I've noticed that the 2008 W AGE UNC $50 is selling for around $1500. Given it's low mintage, this seems undervalued. What am I missing?
I don't think you're missing anything. There's still a lot of market uncertainty about the platinums, and they continue to be plagued by the problems which made them low mintage coins to begin with, namely a small collector base.
In my opinion, there are a number of factors operating to keep prices low, including: (1) small collector base, (2) comparatively high $ price, (3) cash-poor market.
Small collector base means low demand; even at 2,500 mintages, most collectors or speculators interested already have one. The comparatively high $ price doesn't mean that this is a huge premium over melt or issue price-- we can all name many examples where a coin sells for many times the issue price or melt value (for instance, the 1995 w silver eagle or the JR $5 gold unc). However, at the end of the day, $1,500 is still a lot of money, and collectors with that kind of budget have many other options to choose from, including nice examples of well-established keys like the 1909s vdb, 1955 double die, 1942/1 dime, etc., etc. Factor in the uncertain market conditions--- continued high unemployment, stock market fluctuations, concerns about the world economy, euro, N. Korea, Israel, BP oil spill, US state economies, expected tax increases, etc... and people with $1500 might decide they'd rather stay in cash, or buy gold, or pay down debt...
I'm still a believer in the platinum w coins, especially in the long run, but in the short run, I think the $50 and $100 platinum coins are stuck in the 1 to 2x spot range. As a collector, if you want to pick one up, I don't see much downside. But from an investment standpoint, I don't know if there's any compelling reason to jump in -- at $1500, the numismatic premium is already built in (about 2x melt). If you're considering buying as a platinum play, there are coins available closer to melt, so really the most compelling reason to buy a 2008w $50 unc at $1500 is if you think the numismatic demand is going to push the numismatic premium up from here. Something needs to excite the collector market for these coins. Maybe Eric's book will help.
EDITED TO ADD: I'm an idiot. As others have pointed out, the question was about the $50 GOLD eagle. On which I have no opinion but defer to those who, unlike me, know how to read.
Thanks NYC!
I quickly wrote that post as one of my partners mentioned that he had purchased a few of them and wanted to know what he could get for them.
It turns out that he randomly chose the 2008 W Unc. AGE when he logged onto the Mint web site. I told him what the case would have been had he spoken with me first and chosen the $50 2008 Buffs instead. Explicatives followed.
<< <i>The 2008-W $50 AGE 1 ounce is a bargin at $1,500 imo. Heck generic 1 ounce AGEs sell for around $1,270.
The 2008-W AGE $50 is THE key date of all the 1 ounce AGE and the third lowest mintage of all AGEs with a 11,908 mintage. Only the famous 2008-W $10 AGE (8,883 mintage) and the 2007-W $25 AGE (11,455 mintage) have a lower mintage than the 2008-W $50 AGE. >>
yes, .05, this I pulled up the mintage data on the 2008 w AGE Uncs prior to posting my question and noted the relative mintage. That's why I asked if I was missing something. It just seemed undervalued. If my partner wants to sell for spot (which he said he does) I'll buy his four.
Raufus, there haven't been many sales of the 2008-W 1 oz. AGE lately, so I'm not too sure which way the market is trending, but.............in OGP, I show that most of the sales on ebay have ranged between $1,600 to $1,900.
In NGC or PCGS MS-69, the range has been $1,275 to $1,525.
In NGC or PCGS MS-70, the range has been $1,575 to $1,975.
Based on the data, I'd say that a fair value is around $1,550 for an arm-length transaction, but I'm holding onto mine in anticipation of higher prices.
I knew it would happen.