Yes, Eric - and it's this thread on this forum, and others like it that have kept us educating each other, contributing to the body of information that is making it possible for us to choose wisely with our dollars.
Hey, PCGS - thanks for this forum!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
however, once one notices a tulip bulb craze, a bubble, or whatever you would like to call the dramatic price increases over the last year of the Buffalo Gold Issues of 2008W - you have to approach these high price levels with caution - as even EricJ96 has mentioned that price decreases of 30% would not be uncommon in the short run based on the action of prices in this issue.
no issue goes straight up and sustains those prices. nothing does.
i don't believe these coins have in any way matured in price. the price levels have approached what i believe is maturity for these coins 5 years out. that in itself is a problem.
if you acquired these coins from the USM directly, or have purchased them for even 2x-3x original issue, you probably have nothing to worry about. enjoy them. they are great looking coins and immensly popular.
7over8, I don't disagree with anything that you've said, and it may well happen that the Gold Buffs drop back 10% or 40% from the top. And if you are going to need money sometime soon, it might make some sense to lighten up.
OTOH, if you also believe that most of the 2006-W, 2007-W, and 2008-W coins are longterm winners, it also makes sense to sit tight instead of trying to sell them off now and then to have regrets later. It is also true that you can be wrong about the timing or the direction and that selling now could be a mistake that only costs you in terms of time & effort, much like churning a stock account.
Furthermore, the transaction costs are still real, and it always makes sense to minimize the amount of horse trading you do with these coins, and to minimize your transaction costs. Precious metals spreads and Modern Bullion premiums can eat you up if you want back in after you've sold.
I'm just sayin' - sell if you must, but do it judiciously.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
One reason I never bought into "classics" was it always seemed like a rigged game.
When I was a kid I collected my lincoln album the old fashioned way.....I found them one at a time.
I never wanted to collect something I'd have to go buy from some B&M or auction house.
For me the appeal of moderns has always been the level playing field.
I can buy directly from mint those issues I want, can put them on my credit card, collect flyer miles, they get delivered to my door and I have just as good a shot at a top grade rare coin as the next guy.
I smile to myself when I go to a coin show and see the countless dealers sitting with their endless trays of over graded 2x2s of worn large cents, bust halves, seated libs, indian pennies, V nickels, standing lib quarters, barber halves etc., etc.
If I ask about Platinum proofs or burnished coins I always get a "No I don't have any."......Usually followed by a sour look.
If I want to sell my coins I can go directly to Ebay and sell them raw or slabbed confident I got a fair price.
Personally I'd rather have any of the gold or platinum 2006-w through 2008-w coins then an equal value of "classic" coins.
I'll let the multimillionares play the ego driven registry game where they hire someone to find and buy their top registry sets.
Where is the fun in that??
Reminds me of the pro football or baseball team owners who never actually played the game.
One reason I never bought into "classics" was it always seemed like a rigged game.
When I was a kid I collected my lincoln album the old fashioned way.....I found them one at a time.
I never wanted to collect something I'd have to go buy from some B&M or auction house.
For me the appeal of moderns has always been the level playing field.
I can buy directly from mint those issues I want, can put them on my credit card, collect flyer miles, they get delivered to my door and I have just as good a shot at a top grade rare coin as the next guy.
I smile to myself when I go to a coin show and see the countless dealers sitting with their endless trays of over graded 2x2s of worn large cents, bust halves, seated libs, indian pennies, V nickels, standing lib quarters, barber halves etc., etc.
If I ask about Platinum proofs or burnished coins I always get a "No I don't have any......"usually followed by a sour look.
If I want to sell my coins I can go directly to Ebay and sell them raw or slabbed confident I got a fair price.
Personally I'd rather have any of the gold or platinum 2006-w through 2008-w coins then an equal value of overpriced "classic" coins.
I'll let the multimillionares play the ego driven registry game where they hire someone to find and buy their top registry sets.
Where is the fun in that??
Reminds me of the pro football or baseball team owners who never actually played the game.
I couldn't agree more! Classic coins get passed around and passed around. Every change of hands usually adds to the existing "value" or "built-in" costs, and the motivation to pass the coin along becomes the motivation for hype, overgrading, crack-outs, doctoring and a host of transgressions that none of us really need. Yeah, maybe some of that will be resolved with the new grading system, but not all of it.
Modern Bullion in particular is the closest thing to collecting like I did when I was a kid that I can do now. Like you said, it's more of a level playing field. When I started collecting, I could find coins and add them to my collection without paying a dealer. The same thing applied when searching rolls and then to OBW rolls. You always had a fair chance. Now, with classic coins, it's simply become a question of: Can you afford the dealer price after he looks it up on the price guide and plugs in his markup? Period.
I know that some dealers might find my comments irritating, but the fact remains - it's my money. And like any business, the good ones provide knowledge, and service - and they will continue to do just fine providing value for value. That's where it's really at, if ya ask me.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I also totally agree with the above statements. The MOST fun I have collecting still, is trying to build sets from rolls with my 7 year-old son. That's followed by collecting Moderns from the Mint (and others when I need to). Even the thought of collecting a Classic series makes me feel as if I'm Frodo entering Mordor. Dangers lurk everywhere. (I could carry this analogy a lot further, but it might offend a lot of people).
That said, I DO hope to collect a Classic series one day, when I can figure out a reasonable, fun strategy for doing so--and have the budget for it. For now, though, I'm just having fun admiring my coins from '08 and getting 10 rolls of quarters a week, searching for upgrades to our blue books.
no issue goes straight up and sustains those prices. nothing does.
The Jackie Robinson unc gold coin from what I see did, it went up to $1000 in three years and kept rising to quadruple even that price. The gold buffalo coins appear to have about the same percentage rise at this point so what is happening may not be a "bubble".
Jackie MS69 prices 1 year $315 2 years $415 3 years $980 4 years $1260 9 years $3250
Anyone see the crash in those prices, I don't?
If these were platinum coins I might agree with you but gold is a different metal. The gold price today is holding up in a terrible market, while platinum is going down again.
BTW of the five coins series we discussed 7/8 I begged you to buy the gold buffalo coins but no, you went with the "lowest mintage" plats. I asked you not to go just by mintage but instead go for the ones with the highest demand and potential return relative to mintage. Oh well, its all history now and you picked the ones that performed the worst, and I doubt we get another year like 2008.
Anyway at this point it is safe to say the gold buffalo coins won, it isn't even close. Long -term the plats will do well but in the short-term the hare beat the tortoise. And the hare may not be done running, only time will tell.
jmski - I agree that they are long term winners.........just have to be weary of very high inflated prices if you are investing at these levels.......it may take you a number of years to return to super inflated levels.
half - dont worry, I bought my fair share of Buffalo Gold. I am as happy as you are with them.
Right, but it didn't crash after two to three years it kept rising for over a decade. I think it has backed off recently as the spouse gold unc mintages have crushed that coin, even though they are not part of that series.
So I would rather own 6 lowest mintage spouse gold vs. 1 Jackie unc based on that and probably others see that too. Also 3 ounces of gold vs. 1/4 ounce with a lower mintage for the same value.
Anyway we will see what happens, I checked the Ebay prices and see many higher BIN prices on the gold buffalos that aren't selling, it is not the auctions. The auction prices are still high but the BIN prices are higher.
Something else to consider is that on Ebay i couldn't even find the sale of a Jackie unc having sold in the past few weeks, there was a high BIN that nobody took but no auctions. Also even with higher mintage gold unc comm up to almost 10,000 mintages there are very few sales in that series.
In a couple years there may be very few sales of fractional buffalo coins like this and then what happens to prices? Even the spouse unc gold coins with half the mintage may trade almost no coins.
Let's not get lost in what is happening. If people have bid up the gold eagle 1/4 unc 2008 w coins at that high mintage relative to Jackie and spouse gold then I think we are seeing the start of this, not the end.
Anyway just my two cents, I still have not sold any coins and don't plan to at these prices.
<< <i>Something else to consider is that on Ebay i couldn't even find the sale of a Jackie unc having sold in the past few weeks, there was a high BIN that nobody took but no auctions. Also even with higher mintage gold unc comm up to almost 10,000 mintages there are very few sales in that series."
Guys the $5 mint state gold commems have been cornered. Fractional mint state W mint marked eagles will be soon more than likely.
In time all the killer material will become hard to find. The market will go from issue to issue running the prices up until each segment becomes expensive. The buffs and the W mint marked gold got hit the hardest first but the higher the prices go the greater the risk and the lower the percentage gains will be. Markets eventually seek excellent material thats undervalued. Most of the great material will price out at 2-5K in todays dollars at the time of series maturity.
When our book comes out pay attention to the section showing various rare coin market segments indexed to gold and constant dollars. The strong red line shows very low mintage key date behavior in the midst of cornered markets and promotions as seen in the late 1980s. Serious keys are not the targets of major marketing efforts because they "cant get enough to promote". This kind of material does not tend to spike buts its upward march is relentless.
<< Guys the $5 mint state gold commems have been cornered. Fractional mint state W mint marked eagles will be soon more than likely. >>
There are plenty of un-cornered coins that are probably better values going forward.
The 1995-W unc. Olympic Torch Runner $5 gold (mintage 14,675) currently fetches more than 3 times the price of the 1996-D Olympic Wheelchair Athlete silver dollar (mintage 14,497). Unless gold collectors outnumber silver collectors, I don't see how this ratio can hold up in the long run.
What's your thinking on the '07s? A surprising statement given the mega-high mintage of the RP. Also, when you say 90s, do you mean 97-99?
Those 90s coins are somewhat of a mystery, I think. I'm guessing if many went to the smelter, the 90s would have gone first. That could make surviving pops much lower--but it would take a lot of melting.
As for you guys who like the 1/4s better than the 1/2s, I'm just guessing you are the same people with major commitment problems and just won't spring for the truly BEST series--even though it's the one you secretly crave! >>
Grits--I'm one of those guys, "with major commitment problems," at least when it comes to the BIG plats. I like the small ones for the future, but it's a gamble with the 50 & 100. $5,000 platinum could change everything...
That said, the '07w in $10 and $25 is selling about 1/3 of the price of the '05, but the mintages are equal or lower??? That, plus the '07 came out just before the price of Pt shot up (which likely resulted in some melting)-- signals buy in my book.
Yes, I was referring to the 97-99 plats being overpriced. In the last year, we have seen the # of PCGS70s triple and the price drop by half. With the number of 90s unholdered plats out there, I expect the trend to continue.
Here's a thought...In terms of design & denomination, aren't the four 2004W plats among the lowest mintage coins in US history--certainly when you only look at coins offered to the public?
<< <i>Mintage limits have been reduced for the 2010 First Spouse Series One-Half Ounce Gold Coins. The Jane Pierce First Spouse Gold Coins have a maximum mintage of 15,000 across all product options. The ratio of proof coins to uncirculated coins will be determined by customer demand within the total maximum issuance of 15,000. >>
<< <i>Mintage limits have been reduced for the 2010 First Spouse Series One-Half Ounce Gold Coins. The Jane Pierce First Spouse Gold Coins have a maximum mintage of 15,000 across all product options. The ratio of proof coins to uncirculated coins will be determined by customer demand within the total maximum issuance of 15,000. >>
>>
So suppose you're first in line, and order 14,999 proofs and 1 uncirculated . . .
<< <i>Mintage limits have been reduced for the 2010 First Spouse Series One-Half Ounce Gold Coins. The Jane Pierce First Spouse Gold Coins have a maximum mintage of 15,000 across all product options. The ratio of proof coins to uncirculated coins will be determined by customer demand within the total maximum issuance of 15,000. >>
>>
So suppose you're first in line, and order 14,999 proofs and 1 uncirculated . . . >>
I would go the other way with about a dozen proofs. You save money that way. That would be a great credit card by the way.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I was fortunate enough to receive one of the (6) advance copies of Eric's book this week and let me be the first to tell you that this piece of work will likely be the centerpiece of many forum members' coin libraries for years to come! Eric, what an accomplishment writing this book! When these books start shipping in 3 weeks, this thread should light up like a Christmas Tree! I'll do my part to pass this great book around to all of my friends and business associates. Hoping for a sell out of these first edition 8,000 copies before year end and Krause beginning production of the next 8,000+ second edition very soon! And, thank you for inviting my son Justin to be a "contributing editor" on the business strike Pres. Dollar series portion of the book. I wonder if it will be a "chick magnet" for Justin to show his first year college friends that he is published in the numismatic field!!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
It has to be a labor of love to write a book with a first edition of 8,000. It sure isn't going to earn the money a Limbaugh or Clinton book would. Good luck selling.
<< <i>It has to be a labor of love to write a book with a first edition of 8,000. It sure isn't going to earn the money a Limbaugh or Clinton book would. Good luck selling. >>
You are correct. The books earnings are not going to be significant and I have known that from the start. I wrote the book because the established coin book writers tend to have a focus on only classic coinage and the data in most of the guides is garbage for moderns.
This text is full of accurate raw data and applied coin history. Guys we enjoy collecting our modern coins but we sometimes don't recognize that we represent an up and coming school of thought. This text is not "Eric Jordan's book". It represents the thought patterns and realizations of the heard I run with. I'm just the guy that wrote it all down.
A long time classic/modern collector looked through an early draft of the text and said "I am aware of 80 percent of the concepts in the text but its taken me over 40 years to get there and pulling it all together in a concise form makes the big picture easier to see and you don't have to go looking for the data you want its all there."
You will all have the chance to judge for yourselves very shortly. They tell me the books are due to show up in KP's ware house in 12 days.
Actually, 8,000 is a very nice first print run. I'm surprised they went that big--it shows great promise. Congratulations, Eric. This is a very important achievement that will benefit all of us.
BTW, is there a way we can order this from someone besides Amazon so you can get a bigger royalty? For an author, Amazon has a lot of problems--one being that reviewers sell their free review copies on it so that the author gets zilch. I'd imagine ordering directly from Krause (they're the publisher aren't they) would get Eric a better royalty, which he well deserves.
That kind of book is overdue. Seems like there has been an undeclared hostility for moderns by most coin guide publishers and maybe this book will help turn that around for the future.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Quick ?: I've noticed that the 2008 W AGE UNC $50 is selling for around $1500. Given it's low mintage, this seems undervalued. What am I missing?
I don't think you're missing anything. There's still a lot of market uncertainty about the platinums, and they continue to be plagued by the problems which made them low mintage coins to begin with, namely a small collector base.
In my opinion, there are a number of factors operating to keep prices low, including: (1) small collector base, (2) comparatively high $ price, (3) cash-poor market.
Small collector base means low demand; even at 2,500 mintages, most collectors or speculators interested already have one. The comparatively high $ price doesn't mean that this is a huge premium over melt or issue price-- we can all name many examples where a coin sells for many times the issue price or melt value (for instance, the 1995 w silver eagle or the JR $5 gold unc). However, at the end of the day, $1,500 is still a lot of money, and collectors with that kind of budget have many other options to choose from, including nice examples of well-established keys like the 1909s vdb, 1955 double die, 1942/1 dime, etc., etc. Factor in the uncertain market conditions--- continued high unemployment, stock market fluctuations, concerns about the world economy, euro, N. Korea, Israel, BP oil spill, US state economies, expected tax increases, etc... and people with $1500 might decide they'd rather stay in cash, or buy gold, or pay down debt...
I'm still a believer in the platinum w coins, especially in the long run, but in the short run, I think the $50 and $100 platinum coins are stuck in the 1 to 2x spot range. As a collector, if you want to pick one up, I don't see much downside. But from an investment standpoint, I don't know if there's any compelling reason to jump in -- at $1500, the numismatic premium is already built in (about 2x melt). If you're considering buying as a platinum play, there are coins available closer to melt, so really the most compelling reason to buy a 2008w $50 unc at $1500 is if you think the numismatic demand is going to push the numismatic premium up from here. Something needs to excite the collector market for these coins. Maybe Eric's book will help.
EDITED TO ADD: I'm an idiot. As others have pointed out, the question was about the $50 GOLD eagle. On which I have no opinion but defer to those who, unlike me, know how to read. However, with gold at $1200+, $1500 doesn't sound like a very high premium.
Quick ?: I've noticed that the 2008 W AGE UNC $50 is selling for around $1500. Given it's low mintage, this seems undervalued. What am I missing?
Thanks!!! >>
I think this post is referring to the 2008-W $50 Gold Eagle. In my opinion it's being overshadowed by the 2008-W $10 uncirculated quarter-ounce Gold Eagle with a 25% lower mintage. For set collectors the quarter-ounce is more affordable and probably more popular than the full ounce.
The 2008-W $50 AGE 1 ounce is a bargin at $1,500 imo. Heck generic 1 ounce AGEs sell for around $1,270.
The 2008-W AGE $50 is THE key date of all the 1 ounce AGE and the third lowest mintage of all AGEs with a 11,908 mintage. Only the famous 2008-W $10 AGE (8,883 mintage) and the 2007-W $25 AGE (11,455 mintage) have a lower mintage than the 2008-W $50 AGE.
The Julia Tyler spouse coin was pulled today and it may be the first spouse gold with a mintage under 3000. I got a late order in, hopefully it ends up that low.
It also looks like they will release the gold eagle fractional bullion on June 10th so that series continues.
That 2008 W 1 ounce AGE at 12,000 is a lot when you compare it to the 2008 W 1/10 ounce coin with almost the same mintage. I think there are many more 1/10 collectors based on the registry sets so think the 1/10 has a higher potential return vs. the 1 ounce coin.
<< <i>The Julia Tyler spouse coin was pulled today and it may be the first spouse gold with a mintage under 3000. I got a late order in, hopefully it ends up that low.
It also looks like they will release the gold eagle fractional bullion on June 10th so that series continues. >>
Mint state Lititia was at 3152 as of the close of business sunday night. She sold for 3.5 more days and I know of at least 25 in total that were ordered by guys I know in the last 24 hours. Expecting 3,200-3,400 to show up on next weeks sales report less returns. Time will tell but sub 3,000 is not likely.
I think the series is at or close to the mintage bottom. We are only "3,000 coins from none" now.
<< <i>Mint state Lititia was at 3152 as of the close of business sunday night. She sold for 3.5 more days and I know of at least 25 in total that were ordered by guys I know in the last 24 hours. Expecting 3,200-3,400 to show up on next weeks sales report less returns. Time will tell but sub 3,000 is not likely.
>>
That is right for Letita and they also pulled Julia which had sales of only 2861.
So Letitia 3152 and Julia 2861.
If Julia sold less than 139 in those 3 days then it may break under 3000 assuming the numbers are accurate.
Comments
Eric
Yes, Eric - and it's this thread on this forum, and others like it that have kept us educating each other, contributing to the body of information that is making it possible for us to choose wisely with our dollars.
Hey, PCGS - thanks for this forum!
I knew it would happen.
no issue goes straight up and sustains those prices. nothing does.
i don't believe these coins have in any way matured in price. the price levels have approached what i believe is maturity for these coins 5 years out. that in itself is a problem.
if you acquired these coins from the USM directly, or have purchased them for even 2x-3x original issue, you probably have nothing to worry about. enjoy them. they are great looking coins and immensly popular.
7over8, I don't disagree with anything that you've said, and it may well happen that the Gold Buffs drop back 10% or 40% from the top. And if you are going to need money sometime soon, it might make some sense to lighten up.
OTOH, if you also believe that most of the 2006-W, 2007-W, and 2008-W coins are longterm winners, it also makes sense to sit tight instead of trying to sell them off now and then to have regrets later. It is also true that you can be wrong about the timing or the direction and that selling now could be a mistake that only costs you in terms of time & effort, much like churning a stock account.
Furthermore, the transaction costs are still real, and it always makes sense to minimize the amount of horse trading you do with these coins, and to minimize your transaction costs. Precious metals spreads and Modern Bullion premiums can eat you up if you want back in after you've sold.
I'm just sayin' - sell if you must, but do it judiciously.
I knew it would happen.
When I was a kid I collected my lincoln album the old fashioned way.....I found them one at a time.
I never wanted to collect something I'd have to go buy from some B&M or auction house.
For me the appeal of moderns has always been the level playing field.
I can buy directly from mint those issues I want, can put them on my credit card, collect flyer miles, they get delivered to my door and I have just as good a shot at a top grade rare coin as the next guy.
I smile to myself when I go to a coin show and see the countless dealers sitting with their endless trays of over graded 2x2s of worn large cents, bust halves, seated libs, indian pennies, V nickels, standing lib quarters, barber halves etc., etc.
If I ask about Platinum proofs or burnished coins I always get a "No I don't have any."......Usually followed by a sour look.
If I want to sell my coins I can go directly to Ebay and sell them raw or slabbed confident I got a fair price.
Personally I'd rather have any of the gold or platinum 2006-w through 2008-w coins then an equal value of "classic" coins.
I'll let the multimillionares play the ego driven registry game where they hire someone to find and buy their top registry sets.
Where is the fun in that??
Reminds me of the pro football or baseball team owners who never actually played the game.
When I was a kid I collected my lincoln album the old fashioned way.....I found them one at a time.
I never wanted to collect something I'd have to go buy from some B&M or auction house.
For me the appeal of moderns has always been the level playing field.
I can buy directly from mint those issues I want, can put them on my credit card, collect flyer miles, they get delivered to my door and I have just as good a shot at a top grade rare coin as the next guy.
I smile to myself when I go to a coin show and see the countless dealers sitting with their endless trays of over graded 2x2s of worn large cents, bust halves, seated libs, indian pennies, V nickels, standing lib quarters, barber halves etc., etc.
If I ask about Platinum proofs or burnished coins I always get a "No I don't have any......"usually followed by a sour look.
If I want to sell my coins I can go directly to Ebay and sell them raw or slabbed confident I got a fair price.
Personally I'd rather have any of the gold or platinum 2006-w through 2008-w coins then an equal value of overpriced "classic" coins.
I'll let the multimillionares play the ego driven registry game where they hire someone to find and buy their top registry sets.
Where is the fun in that??
Reminds me of the pro football or baseball team owners who never actually played the game.
I couldn't agree more! Classic coins get passed around and passed around. Every change of hands usually adds to the existing "value" or "built-in" costs, and the motivation to pass the coin along becomes the motivation for hype, overgrading, crack-outs, doctoring and a host of transgressions that none of us really need. Yeah, maybe some of that will be resolved with the new grading system, but not all of it.
Modern Bullion in particular is the closest thing to collecting like I did when I was a kid that I can do now. Like you said, it's more of a level playing field. When I started collecting, I could find coins and add them to my collection without paying a dealer. The same thing applied when searching rolls and then to OBW rolls. You always had a fair chance. Now, with classic coins, it's simply become a question of: Can you afford the dealer price after he looks it up on the price guide and plugs in his markup? Period.
I know that some dealers might find my comments irritating, but the fact remains - it's my money. And like any business, the good ones provide knowledge, and service - and they will continue to do just fine providing value for value. That's where it's really at, if ya ask me.
I knew it would happen.
That said, I DO hope to collect a Classic series one day, when I can figure out a reasonable, fun strategy for doing so--and have the budget for it. For now, though, I'm just having fun admiring my coins from '08 and getting 10 rolls of quarters a week, searching for upgrades to our blue books.
<< <i>I also totally agree with the above statements. >>
Man, we're feeling the love today!
The Jackie Robinson unc gold coin from what I see did, it went up to $1000 in three years and kept rising to quadruple even that price. The gold buffalo coins appear to have about the same percentage rise at this point so what is happening may not be a "bubble".
Jackie MS69 prices 1 year $315 2 years $415 3 years $980 4 years $1260 9 years $3250
Anyone see the crash in those prices, I don't?
If these were platinum coins I might agree with you but gold is a different metal. The gold price today is holding up in a terrible market, while platinum is going down again.
BTW of the five coins series we discussed 7/8 I begged you to buy the gold buffalo coins but no, you went with the "lowest mintage" plats. I asked you not to go just by mintage but instead go for the ones with the highest demand and potential return relative to mintage. Oh well, its all history now and you picked the ones that performed the worst, and I doubt we get another year like 2008.
Anyway at this point it is safe to say the gold buffalo coins won, it isn't even close. Long -term the plats will do well but in the short-term the hare beat the tortoise. And the hare may not be done running, only time will tell.
half - dont worry, I bought my fair share of Buffalo Gold. I am as happy as you are with them.
So I would rather own 6 lowest mintage spouse gold vs. 1 Jackie unc based on that and probably others see that too. Also 3 ounces of gold vs. 1/4 ounce with a lower mintage for the same value.
Anyway we will see what happens, I checked the Ebay prices and see many higher BIN prices on the gold buffalos that aren't selling, it is not the auctions. The auction prices are still high but the BIN prices are higher.
In a couple years there may be very few sales of fractional buffalo coins like this and then what happens to prices? Even the spouse unc gold coins with half the mintage may trade almost no coins.
Let's not get lost in what is happening. If people have bid up the gold eagle 1/4 unc 2008 w coins at that high mintage relative to Jackie and spouse gold then I think we are seeing the start of this, not the end.
Anyway just my two cents, I still have not sold any coins and don't plan to at these prices.
<< <i>Something else to consider is that on Ebay i couldn't even find the sale of a Jackie unc having sold in the past few weeks, there was a high BIN that nobody took but no auctions. Also even with higher mintage gold unc comm up to almost 10,000 mintages there are very few sales in that series."
Guys the $5 mint state gold commems have been cornered. Fractional mint state W mint marked eagles will be soon more than likely.
In time all the killer material will become hard to find. The market will go from issue to issue running the prices up until each segment becomes expensive. The buffs and the W mint marked gold got hit the hardest first but the higher the prices go the greater the risk and the lower the percentage gains will be. Markets eventually seek excellent material thats undervalued. Most of the great material will price out at 2-5K in todays dollars at the time of series maturity.
When our book comes out pay attention to the section showing various rare coin market segments indexed to gold and constant dollars. The strong red line shows very low mintage key date behavior in the midst of cornered markets and promotions as seen in the late 1980s. Serious keys are not the targets of major marketing efforts because they "cant get enough to promote". This kind of material does not tend to spike buts its upward march is relentless.
Eric
There are plenty of un-cornered coins that are probably better values going forward.
The 1995-W unc. Olympic Torch Runner $5 gold (mintage 14,675) currently fetches more than 3 times the price of the 1996-D Olympic Wheelchair Athlete silver dollar (mintage 14,497). Unless gold collectors outnumber silver collectors, I don't see how this ratio can hold up in the long run.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
selling into the strength can be done as well...
however, I wonder about demand destruction simply because "they are hard to find at a good price"
<< <i>cornering the market is one thing....
selling into the strength can be done as well...
however, I wonder about demand destruction simply because "they are hard to find at a good price"
I don't know about that, but I do have to admit your avatar just creeps me out!
<< <i>drei3,
What's your thinking on the '07s? A surprising statement given the mega-high mintage of the RP. Also, when you say 90s, do you mean 97-99?
Those 90s coins are somewhat of a mystery, I think. I'm guessing if many went to the smelter, the 90s would have gone first. That could make surviving pops much lower--but it would take a lot of melting.
As for you guys who like the 1/4s better than the 1/2s, I'm just guessing you are the same people with major commitment problems and just won't spring for the truly BEST series--even though it's the one you secretly crave!
Grits--I'm one of those guys, "with major commitment problems," at least when it comes to the BIG plats. I like the small ones for the future, but it's a gamble with the 50 & 100. $5,000 platinum could change everything...
That said, the '07w in $10 and $25 is selling about 1/3 of the price of the '05, but the mintages are equal or lower??? That, plus the '07 came out just before the price of Pt shot up (which likely resulted in some melting)-- signals buy in my book.
Yes, I was referring to the 97-99 plats being overpriced. In the last year, we have seen the # of PCGS70s triple and the price drop by half. With the number of 90s unholdered plats out there, I expect the trend to continue.
Here's a thought...In terms of design & denomination, aren't the four 2004W plats among the lowest mintage coins in US history--certainly when you only look at coins offered to the public?
but
<< <i>Mintage limits have been reduced for the 2010 First Spouse Series One-Half Ounce Gold Coins. The Jane Pierce First Spouse Gold Coins have a maximum mintage of 15,000 across all product options. The ratio of proof coins to uncirculated coins will be determined by customer demand within the total maximum issuance of 15,000. >>
<< <i>no household order limits
but
<< <i>Mintage limits have been reduced for the 2010 First Spouse Series One-Half Ounce Gold Coins. The Jane Pierce First Spouse Gold Coins have a maximum mintage of 15,000 across all product options. The ratio of proof coins to uncirculated coins will be determined by customer demand within the total maximum issuance of 15,000. >>
>>
So suppose you're first in line, and order 14,999 proofs and 1 uncirculated . . .
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>no household order limits
but
<< <i>Mintage limits have been reduced for the 2010 First Spouse Series One-Half Ounce Gold Coins. The Jane Pierce First Spouse Gold Coins have a maximum mintage of 15,000 across all product options. The ratio of proof coins to uncirculated coins will be determined by customer demand within the total maximum issuance of 15,000. >>
>>
So suppose you're first in line, and order 14,999 proofs and 1 uncirculated . . .
I would go the other way with about a dozen proofs. You save money that way. That would be a great credit card by the way.
<< <i>and finally a true auction for these >>
A true auction for "box and capsules"??
I hope I can get over $8000 for those!
Miles
but it'll be interesting to see what one goes for craziness wise...
an Unc. OGP just sold BIN for $22.95
but we've all seen how high empty boxes have gone.
I did buy a set of these "empties" for myself months ago just in case I want to store dimes, nickels, and quarters somewhere exciting.
Miles
Wondercoin
<< <i>where do I send my check for the book?!?!?!?!? >>
<< <i>It has to be a labor of love to write a book with a first edition of 8,000. It sure isn't going to earn the money a Limbaugh or Clinton book would. Good luck selling. >>
You are correct. The books earnings are not going to be significant and I have known that from the start. I wrote the book because the established coin book writers tend to have a focus on only classic coinage and the data in most of the guides is garbage for moderns.
This text is full of accurate raw data and applied coin history. Guys we enjoy collecting our modern coins but we sometimes don't recognize that we represent an up and coming school of thought. This text is not "Eric Jordan's book". It represents the thought patterns and realizations of the heard I run with. I'm just the guy that wrote it all down.
A long time classic/modern collector looked through an early draft of the text and said "I am aware of 80 percent of the concepts in the text but its taken me over 40 years to get there and pulling it all together in a concise form makes the big picture easier to see and you don't have to go looking for the data you want its all there."
You will all have the chance to judge for yourselves very shortly. They tell me the books are due to show up in KP's ware house in 12 days.
Eric
Order Eric's Book at amazon.com
I am looking forward to getting my copy!
I've done my part...my copy of Eric's book is on backorder at Borders!
Quick ?: I've noticed that the 2008 W AGE UNC $50 is selling for around $1500. Given it's low mintage, this seems undervalued. What am I missing?
Thanks!!!
BTW, is there a way we can order this from someone besides Amazon so you can get a bigger royalty? For an author, Amazon has a lot of problems--one being that reviewers sell their free review copies on it so that the author gets zilch. I'd imagine ordering directly from Krause (they're the publisher aren't they) would get Eric a better royalty, which he well deserves.
Let us know!
Quick ?: I've noticed that the 2008 W AGE UNC $50 is selling for around $1500. Given it's low mintage, this seems undervalued. What am I missing?
I don't think you're missing anything. There's still a lot of market uncertainty about the platinums, and they continue to be plagued by the problems which made them low mintage coins to begin with, namely a small collector base.
In my opinion, there are a number of factors operating to keep prices low, including: (1) small collector base, (2) comparatively high $ price, (3) cash-poor market.
Small collector base means low demand; even at 2,500 mintages, most collectors or speculators interested already have one. The comparatively high $ price doesn't mean that this is a huge premium over melt or issue price-- we can all name many examples where a coin sells for many times the issue price or melt value (for instance, the 1995 w silver eagle or the JR $5 gold unc). However, at the end of the day, $1,500 is still a lot of money, and collectors with that kind of budget have many other options to choose from, including nice examples of well-established keys like the 1909s vdb, 1955 double die, 1942/1 dime, etc., etc. Factor in the uncertain market conditions--- continued high unemployment, stock market fluctuations, concerns about the world economy, euro, N. Korea, Israel, BP oil spill, US state economies, expected tax increases, etc... and people with $1500 might decide they'd rather stay in cash, or buy gold, or pay down debt...
I'm still a believer in the platinum w coins, especially in the long run, but in the short run, I think the $50 and $100 platinum coins are stuck in the 1 to 2x spot range. As a collector, if you want to pick one up, I don't see much downside. But from an investment standpoint, I don't know if there's any compelling reason to jump in -- at $1500, the numismatic premium is already built in (about 2x melt). If you're considering buying as a platinum play, there are coins available closer to melt, so really the most compelling reason to buy a 2008w $50 unc at $1500 is if you think the numismatic demand is going to push the numismatic premium up from here. Something needs to excite the collector market for these coins. Maybe Eric's book will help.
EDITED TO ADD: I'm an idiot. As others have pointed out, the question was about the $50 GOLD eagle. On which I have no opinion but defer to those who, unlike me, know how to read.
<< <i>Hi Folks-
Quick ?: I've noticed that the 2008 W AGE UNC $50 is selling for around $1500. Given it's low mintage, this seems undervalued. What am I missing?
Thanks!!! >>
I think this post is referring to the 2008-W $50 Gold Eagle. In my opinion it's being overshadowed by the 2008-W $10 uncirculated quarter-ounce Gold Eagle with a 25% lower mintage. For set collectors the quarter-ounce is more affordable and probably more popular than the full ounce.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The 2008-W AGE $50 is THE key date of all the 1 ounce AGE and the third lowest mintage of all AGEs with a 11,908 mintage. Only the famous 2008-W $10 AGE (8,883 mintage) and the 2007-W $25 AGE (11,455 mintage) have a lower mintage than the 2008-W $50 AGE.
<< <i>I bought the book on Amazon weeks ago. Thats where you can buy it. >>
Amazon shows "This title has not yet been released." Have you received it yet?
Fivecents, where can you get an 2008-W 1 oz UNC GAE for less than $1600?
Andy
Modern Commemorative Coins by Eric Jordan
It also looks like they will release the gold eagle fractional bullion on June 10th so that series continues.
Let's not forget the 2006-W 1 oz. Reverse Proof, at 10,000 mintage.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>The Julia Tyler spouse coin was pulled today and it may be the first spouse gold with a mintage under 3000. I got a late order in, hopefully it ends up that low.
It also looks like they will release the gold eagle fractional bullion on June 10th so that series continues. >>
Mint state Lititia was at 3152 as of the close of business sunday night. She sold for 3.5 more days and I know of at least 25 in total that were ordered by guys I know in the last 24 hours. Expecting 3,200-3,400 to show up on next weeks sales report less returns. Time will tell but sub 3,000 is not likely.
I think the series is at or close to the mintage bottom. We are only "3,000 coins from none" now.
<< <i>Mint state Lititia was at 3152 as of the close of business sunday night. She sold for 3.5 more days and I know of at least 25 in total that were ordered by guys I know in the last 24 hours. Expecting 3,200-3,400 to show up on next weeks sales report less returns. Time will tell but sub 3,000 is not likely.
>>
That is right for Letita and they also pulled Julia which had sales of only 2861.
So Letitia 3152
and Julia 2861.
If Julia sold less than 139 in those 3 days then it may break under 3000 assuming the numbers are accurate.
<<I just ordered two of Eric's books at Amazon. >>
But can we get Eric's book sealed in an "Early Releases" slab?