i know its the wrong forum but kinda isn't. i just received 15 BSA unc coins i had order day one. didn't think i would ever see them. i am glad i did as my son is in the scouts and going to the 100th anniversary jamboree this summer. i am hoping for a secondary market demand and perhaps a 70 or more. but i really got them to offer to scouts who go for the coin collecting merit badge which i am trying to qualify as a merit badge counsler.
Ships are safe in harbor but thats not what ships were built for.
It is a major error to simply compare relative coin mintages of various series/demoninations and then try to extrapolate value.
A 10,000 total mintage coin in one denomination/series might be a common place coin while the same mintage coin could be exceedingly rare in another denomination/series .
Even "Key" coins in a series only provide a relative guide to value when compared to other coins in same series and it is incorrect to compare mintages of keys for different coins/series/denominations and then attempt to dertermine value.
The "key" coins for lincoln cents will carry a far different mintages and values than the key coin/s for say flying eagle cents, Roosevelt dimes, $2 1/2 gold indians, $20 Saints or various classic or modern silver commemoratives etc. etc
IMO it is foolish to compare the mintages of first spouse coins to other examples of various modern silver/gold commemoratives or even to various gold/platinum bullion based coins.
These are each different series with different collector bases and in the end it is not solely the mintage that determines value but rather the mintage in relation to collector demand. (Base metal bullion value and condition are other considerations)
The formula is not Value=Mintage but rather Value=Product of surviving Mintage and Demand.
It may be hard to find a $10 2008-w MS gold eagle raw for $2,000 in two years. The coin is the king of known mintage fractional gold eagles and the market is being forced in a corner by very strong hands......
Wouldn't surprise me at all, Eric. Then again, they could fall again.
Just noticed a 1995 gold and silver set with the 1995-W silver eagle for $3,995 on the Bay. If you subtract the gold, then the eagle is only going for about $1500--about 1/3 of what it was, what, a year and a half ago. Interesting...
<< <i>Uh-oh, the 2008 W proof buffalos have dropped in bid price on the latest greysheet... >>
SELL! SELL! SELL! IT'S A RACE TO THE BOTTOM FROM HERE!
But really, I think these 2008 buffs have pretty much disconnected from the price of gold. It's all demand-driven for now--at least until the next hot thing comes along.
BTW, I just got three rolls of Hot Springs quarters I'd let go for the gold spot price. If anything puts these buffs out of favor, it's these quarters...
If you are talking about 4 coin sets maybe.........
Non fancy label single issue 70s will not hit $10,000 unless we see a currency collapse. Guys 12-18,000 fresh new looking coins IS NOT RARE! Go look through pop reports/graysheet numbers and see that in order to hold $10k+ prices the pops need to be SMALL.
Will platinum hit $900 like it did in 07 just in time for this years platinum proof offering from the mint? if it hits 900 could be a precursor to DOW again back to 6000s in 2011.
As painful as it would be in the short term, perversely a lasting decline of platinum prices below $1,000 might be benefical long term in regards to bringing in new collectors.
It certainly could lead to higher sales of new mint products some of which would lead to interest in the earlier issues.
<< <i>If you are talking about 4 coin sets maybe.........
Non fancy label single issue 70s will not hit $10,000 unless we see a currency collapse. Guys 12-18,000 fresh new looking coins IS NOT RARE! Go look through pop reports/graysheet numbers and see that in order to hold $10k+ prices the pops need to be SMALL.
12-18k is not SMALL. >>
Historically this is true, however they have already gone up 100% a year since 2008. Buffalos are an anomally. A wildly popular series. I think even plain ol 70s will continue to appreciate beyond expectations. Did anyone think that the 2008-W buffalos would be at these prices even a year ago? I will be happily holding 1/114th of current PR70 FS $50 Buffalo pop. for years.
As painful as it would be in the short term perversely a lasting decline of platinum prices below $1,000 might be benefical long term in regards to bringing in new collectors.
It certainly could lead to higher sales of new mint products some of which would lead to interest in the earlier issues.
I see what you are saying, but I think that the economy has to be somewhat healthy before we see an influx of new platinum collectors. Essentially, they have the same problem that I have - I want to do some backfilling so that I can shape my "holdings" into a "collection", but my income has declined along with the economy, and I find it about as difficult to buy a 1998-W 1 oz. Proof Plat now as I did to buy a 2008-W 1 oz. Proof Plat in 2008, but a little harder to justify. The decline in platinum prices might help me a little, but it's still not a small purchase for me - and I have a bunch of them I need to acquire.
Lastly, if the price of platinum continues down and/or stays down, it will undoubtedly cause the Mint to take some losses on their "P&L" for 2010, which in turn will put more pressure on them to do something stupid and/or unpredictable. Stay tuned.
Buffaloes are currently dying on the vine......
Huge number of unsold auctions over the last few days......
7over8, isn't that axe shiny enough yet? If you follow the Plats, their performance in the past few weeks has been none-too-spectacular, either. The thing that is potentially troublesome for the high Gold Buff premiums is the same thing that is causing Plats to stumble. My observation is that the Gold Buffs are more tenacious in holding their premiums than the Plats are in holding their price levels. In both cases, it's really not a big deal. Gold and platinum will both be strong before we know it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Buffaloes are currently dying on the vine......The huge influx of high and higher priced BIN Buffalos on ebay and MCM's big buy/sell have slowed the 08 Buffalo's climb and resulted in a price pull back.Once the MCM's are sold out and the ebay sellers pull or slowly sell off their BIN I think the Buff prices will stabilize. Once they're scarce on the open market again I bet their prices will start to climb.Since the APE collector base is fairly small(and most have one or more of the 08w's) it will take some time for the 08w's prices to climb.No doubt the next five to ten years will be interesting for both series........Wonder how quickly the Buchanan Liberties will sell out?
<< <i>What is grey sheet bid/ask for 2008-W Burnished 1/4 oz Uncirculated $10 Gold Eagle?? >>
My latest greysheet issue I have is May 14.
2008 W burnished 1/4 gold eagle Bid.....$985 Ask.....$1,050
One comment about the 2008 gold buffalo market slowing. One major player has been having some serious health problems the last few weeks. I hope your health improves Bob Leece.
Just my 2 cents but...re the recent topping and slight decline in Buff prices...but last week was particularly brutal for any and all things bullion related...even coins with good collector appeal. I think gold slide nearly 5% and platinum fell through the floor.
So the Buffs were really facing a strong head wind last week. If/when gold stabilizes and starts climbing again, IMHO that should encourage some stronger bids. Kinda foolish when you're dealing with coins trading so far over melt...but humans are frequently foolish.
This was an interesting comment pulled from the First Spouse poll by Gritsman:
"Plus, with rising gold values and high US Mint premiums (as with the high relief 1 oz. saint) these overpriced bullion-related pseudo-collectible issues are also pulling a lot of collector dollars away from the classic coin market. "
I guess this poster is concerned about a Giant sucking sound in the market place called moderns. I hate to admit it but this classic collector is correct to some extent. Are you guys familiar with the S curve (otherwise known as the market maturity cycle). It simply states that markets start out with the infancy stage with low market penetration, then move to the rapid growth stage and then finally reach maturity when net market growth on a percentage basis stagnates. Markets (or series) that are say 50+ years old tend to be mature. Thats one of the reasons moderns out perform classics on a percentage basis almost all the time right now. They are in the late infancy/ early growth portion of series development. We will have our book to talk about these topics and many more in about 3 weeks.
The naysayers just can't help themselves, and yet they fail to see their own favorite coins through the same prism. They have no issue with some coins that sell for 100,000X face just because they are the designated as market favorites by virtue of a couple of Sheldon grading points.
When the market for classics got too stagnant, they had to cut the grading scale into finer increments in order to have the ability to squeeze more money out of collectors. The first dealers who supported that idea were the ones who benefited most, but nobody really talks about that because the money's been made now and the next step is stickers and plus grading. I'm not saying that TPGs don't have a purpose, but I do find it ironic when the Mint plays the dealer game with unlimited government funds and on a grander scale than the dealers are able to muster.
And these are the same people who bemoan a Modern Bullion coin that doubles in a year because of popularity with its collecting base. On one hand they pooh-pooh Modern Bullion as being somehow lesser than their favorite classics, but yet they whine and complain about "losing money" that would otherwise be spent in "their market'.
Interesting. I always thought that it was MY money, and I didn't know that I was obligated to spend it anywhere other than what I want to spend it on, except for the abominable health care insurance that was crammed down our throats. So, I have difficulty seeing how something can be dissed on one hand and labelled as a usurper on the other hand. After awhile, it sounds like a broken record.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>The naysayers just can't help themselves, and yet they fail to see their own favorite coins through the same prism. They have no issue with some coins that sell for 100,000X face just because they are the designated as market favorites by virtue of a couple of Sheldon grading points.
When the market for classics got too stagnant, they had to cut the grading scale into finer increments in order to have the ability to squeeze more money out of collectors. The first dealers who supported that idea were the ones who benefited most, but nobody really talks about that because the money's been made now and the next step is stickers and plus grading. I'm not saying that TPGs don't have a purpose, but I do find it ironic when the Mint plays the dealer game with unlimited government funds and on a grander scale than the dealers are able to muster.
And these are the same people who bemoan a Modern Bullion coin that doubles in a year because of popularity with its collecting base. On one hand they pooh-pooh Modern Bullion as being somehow lesser than their favorite classics, but yet they whine and complain about "losing money" that would otherwise be spent in "their market'.
Interesting. I always thought that it was MY money, and I didn't know that I was obligated to spend it anywhere other than what I want to spend it on, except for the abominable health care insurance that was crammed down our throats. So, I have difficulty seeing how something can be dissed on one hand and labelled as a usurper on the other hand. After awhile, it sounds like a broken record. >>
jmski makes good points, and many of us, including myself, believe in the collectability and future price appreciation of many modern issues.
however, once one notices a tulip bulb craze, a bubble, or whatever you would like to call the dramatic price increases over the last year of the Buffalo Gold Issues of 2008W - you have to approach these high price levels with caution - as even EricJ96 has mentioned that price decreases of 30% would not be uncommon in the short run based on the action of prices in this issue.
no issue goes straight up and sustains those prices. nothing does.
i don't believe these coins have in any way matured in price. the price levels have approached what i believe is maturity for these coins 5 years out. that in itself is a problem.
if you acquired these coins from the USM directly, or have purchased them for even 2x-3x original issue, you probably have nothing to worry about. enjoy them. they are great looking coins and immensly popular.
Comments
And Marty Van Buren wasn't the most attractive guy to sit on...!!!
<< <i><<Sounds like the author is sitting on more than a few of the Van Burens>>
And Marty Van Buren wasn't the most attractive guy to sit on...!!! >>
A 10,000 total mintage coin in one denomination/series might be a common place coin while the same mintage coin could be exceedingly rare in another denomination/series .
Even "Key" coins in a series only provide a relative guide to value when compared to other coins in same series and it is incorrect to compare mintages of keys for different coins/series/denominations and then attempt to dertermine value.
The "key" coins for lincoln cents will carry a far different mintages and values than the key coin/s for say flying eagle cents, Roosevelt dimes, $2 1/2 gold indians, $20 Saints or various classic or modern silver commemoratives etc. etc
IMO it is foolish to compare the mintages of first spouse coins to other examples of various modern silver/gold commemoratives or even to various gold/platinum bullion based coins.
These are each different series with different collector bases and in the end it is not solely the mintage that determines value but rather the mintage in relation to collector demand. (Base metal bullion value and condition are other considerations)
The formula is not Value=Mintage but rather Value=Product of surviving Mintage and Demand.
1/10 oz. - 12,657
1/4 oz. - 8,883
1/2 oz. - 15,682
1 oz. - 11,908
These are doing nicely and its raw.
2008 W 1/4 oz AGE
Box of 20
Just noticed a 1995 gold and silver set with the 1995-W silver eagle for $3,995 on the Bay. If you subtract the gold, then the eagle is only going for about $1500--about 1/3 of what it was, what, a year and a half ago. Interesting...
1995 proof set
Well, just Love coins, period.
Thanks for making me smarter!
If gold goes from $1200 to $800, I would expect the price of these coins to also drop.
Likewise, if it goes to $2000, the coins will go up.
However, Golds tripled since Bush became President, I really doubt it will triple again. The easy money's been made.
<< <i>Uh-oh, the 2008 W proof buffalos have dropped in bid price on the latest greysheet... >>
SELL! SELL! SELL! IT'S A RACE TO THE BOTTOM FROM HERE!
But really, I think these 2008 buffs have pretty much disconnected from the price of gold. It's all demand-driven for now--at least until the next hot thing comes along.
BTW, I just got three rolls of Hot Springs quarters I'd let go for the gold spot price. If anything puts these buffs out of favor, it's these quarters...
<< <i>Uh-oh, the 2008 W proof buffalos have dropped in bid price on the latest greysheet... >>
Ebay does nto seem to be slowing down!!!
BUFF SET
I saw these a few days ago. it did seem kind of low since these are going in mid 5K range lately.
Box of 20
Non fancy label single issue 70s will not hit $10,000 unless we see a currency collapse. Guys 12-18,000 fresh new looking coins IS NOT RARE! Go look through pop reports/graysheet numbers and see that in order to hold $10k+ prices the pops need to be SMALL.
12-18k is not SMALL.
Not to start an arguement with OP but value doesn't equal mintage alone.
Rather value is a product of surviving mintage/demand/grade/base metal spot.
Initial Mintage is fixed. Surviving mintage is with time a decreasing percent of original mintage. Grade is 95% fixed.
It is demand and base metal spot value that is most variable for the gold and platinum coins.
Demand and base metal value can rise or fall with time and circumstances.
<< <i>Looks like risk of platinum being melted is $100 less today than yesterday.
Not to start an arguement with OP but value doesn't equal mintage alone.
Rather value is a product of mintage/demand/grade/base metal spot. >>
Oh, start an argument already. That's why we're here, isn't it???
BTW, while I agree that 12-18K is not small, the demand for these buffs--and maybe '08 AGEs--could keep these high for a long time.
Box of 20
It certainly could lead to higher sales of new mint products some of which would lead to interest in the earlier issues.
<< <i>Uh-oh, the 2008 W proof buffalos have dropped in bid price on the latest greysheet... >>
This bubble is about to pop. We witnessed the top here about 2-3 days ago.
==Looking for pre WW2 Commems in PCGS Rattler holders, 1851-O Three Cent Silvers in all grades
Successful, problem free and pleasant transactions with: illini420, coinguy1, weather11am,wayneherndon,wondercoin,Topdollarpaid,Julian, bishdigg,seateddime, peicesofme,ajia,CoinRaritiesOnline,savoyspecial,Boom, TorinoCobra71, ModernCoinMart, WTCG, slinc, Patches, Gerard, pocketpiececommems, BigJohnD, RickMilauskas, mirabella, Smittys, LeeG, TomB, DeusExMachina, tydye
I cant believe what they are selling for.
You get a total of 62 listings.......proof or burnished.
Only 3 are real auctions.
Rest are above market BIN or above market starting prices.
Ebay is less and less an auction place and more and more just another retail on line merchant site.
<< <i>If you are talking about 4 coin sets maybe.........
Non fancy label single issue 70s will not hit $10,000 unless we see a currency collapse. Guys 12-18,000 fresh new looking coins IS NOT RARE! Go look through pop reports/graysheet numbers and see that in order to hold $10k+ prices the pops need to be SMALL.
12-18k is not SMALL. >>
Historically this is true, however they have already gone up 100% a year since 2008. Buffalos are an anomally. A wildly popular series. I think even plain ol 70s will continue to appreciate beyond expectations. Did anyone think that the 2008-W buffalos would be at these prices even a year ago? I will be happily holding 1/114th of current PR70 FS $50 Buffalo pop. for years.
Huge number of unsold auctions over the last few days......
It certainly could lead to higher sales of new mint products some of which would lead to interest in the earlier issues.
I see what you are saying, but I think that the economy has to be somewhat healthy before we see an influx of new platinum collectors. Essentially, they have the same problem that I have - I want to do some backfilling so that I can shape my "holdings" into a "collection", but my income has declined along with the economy, and I find it about as difficult to buy a 1998-W 1 oz. Proof Plat now as I did to buy a 2008-W 1 oz. Proof Plat in 2008, but a little harder to justify. The decline in platinum prices might help me a little, but it's still not a small purchase for me - and I have a bunch of them I need to acquire.
Lastly, if the price of platinum continues down and/or stays down, it will undoubtedly cause the Mint to take some losses on their "P&L" for 2010, which in turn will put more pressure on them to do something stupid and/or unpredictable. Stay tuned.
Buffaloes are currently dying on the vine......
Huge number of unsold auctions over the last few days......
7over8, isn't that axe shiny enough yet?
I knew it would happen.
the overheated market in gold buffaloes is going cold, just look at all the unsold auctions, there are LOTS of them......
the superheated premiums begged the holders of these coins to take thier profits and run,
dont say I didnt tell you so......
before you all round up a posse and come looking to post one auction here or there that contradicts the MANY unsold pieces,
I am not saying you wont still make a healthy premium on these coins - just expect anywhere from a 15-30% reduction in prices from here....
Searching for Ebay platinum 2006-W or platinum 2007-w or platinum 2008-w it looks like there are appox. 174 total offerings.
That is 174 combined proof and burnished in all 4 denominations and sets.
A grand total of 2 auctions have bids.
Now that is something to worry about.
Ebay is less and less an auction place and more and more just a listing of peoples inventory............
<< <i>What is grey sheet bid/ask for 2008-W Burnished 1/4 oz Uncirculated $10 Gold Eagle?? >>
My latest greysheet issue I have is May 14.
2008 W burnished 1/4 gold eagle
Bid.....$985
Ask.....$1,050
One comment about the 2008 gold buffalo market slowing. One major player has been having some serious health problems the last few weeks. I hope your health improves Bob Leece.
Just my 2 cents but...re the recent topping and slight decline in Buff prices...but last week was particularly brutal for any and all things bullion related...even coins with good collector appeal. I think gold slide nearly 5% and platinum fell through the floor.
So the Buffs were really facing a strong head wind last week. If/when gold stabilizes and starts climbing again, IMHO that should encourage some stronger bids. Kinda foolish when you're dealing with coins trading so far over melt...but humans are frequently foolish.
<< <i>Unloved..........
Searching for Ebay platinum 2006-W or platinum 2007-w or platinum 2008-w it looks like there are appox. 174 total offerings.
That is 174 combined proof and burnished in all 4 denominations and sets.
A grand total of 2 auctions have bids.
Now that is something to worry about.
Ebay is less and less an auction place and more and more just a listing of peoples inventory............ >>
can you blame them?
I just lost my powerseller's status and I don't even care.
I'm just waiting for the better service to come along. Too bad eBay is ditching their original business model and customers.
Google save us!
These auctions seem healthy enough:
Ebay Buffalo Raw Proof Set Auction $6322, 2 days left
Set 2008 w NGC PF 70 ER $6900, 2 days left
2008 W $50 MS70 FS closed for $4561
"Plus, with rising gold values and high US Mint premiums (as with the high relief 1 oz. saint) these overpriced bullion-related pseudo-collectible issues are also pulling a lot of collector dollars away from the classic coin market. "
I guess this poster is concerned about a Giant sucking sound in the market place called moderns. I hate to admit it but this classic collector is correct to some extent. Are you guys familiar with the S curve (otherwise known as the market maturity cycle). It simply states that markets start out with the infancy stage with low market penetration, then move to the rapid growth stage and then finally reach maturity when net market growth on a percentage basis stagnates. Markets (or series) that are say 50+ years old tend to be mature. Thats one of the reasons moderns out perform classics on a percentage basis almost all the time right now. They are in the late infancy/ early growth portion of series development. We will have our book to talk about these topics and many more in about 3 weeks.
Eric
thier health is on the decline.....
When the market for classics got too stagnant, they had to cut the grading scale into finer increments in order to have the ability to squeeze more money out of collectors. The first dealers who supported that idea were the ones who benefited most, but nobody really talks about that because the money's been made now and the next step is stickers and plus grading. I'm not saying that TPGs don't have a purpose, but I do find it ironic when the Mint plays the dealer game with unlimited government funds and on a grander scale than the dealers are able to muster.
And these are the same people who bemoan a Modern Bullion coin that doubles in a year because of popularity with its collecting base. On one hand they pooh-pooh Modern Bullion as being somehow lesser than their favorite classics, but yet they whine and complain about "losing money" that would otherwise be spent in "their market'.
Interesting. I always thought that it was MY money, and I didn't know that I was obligated to spend it anywhere other than what I want to spend it on, except for the abominable health care insurance that was crammed down our throats. So, I have difficulty seeing how something can be dissed on one hand and labelled as a usurper on the other hand. After awhile, it sounds like a broken record.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>The naysayers just can't help themselves, and yet they fail to see their own favorite coins through the same prism. They have no issue with some coins that sell for 100,000X face just because they are the designated as market favorites by virtue of a couple of Sheldon grading points.
When the market for classics got too stagnant, they had to cut the grading scale into finer increments in order to have the ability to squeeze more money out of collectors. The first dealers who supported that idea were the ones who benefited most, but nobody really talks about that because the money's been made now and the next step is stickers and plus grading. I'm not saying that TPGs don't have a purpose, but I do find it ironic when the Mint plays the dealer game with unlimited government funds and on a grander scale than the dealers are able to muster.
And these are the same people who bemoan a Modern Bullion coin that doubles in a year because of popularity with its collecting base. On one hand they pooh-pooh Modern Bullion as being somehow lesser than their favorite classics, but yet they whine and complain about "losing money" that would otherwise be spent in "their market'.
Interesting. I always thought that it was MY money, and I didn't know that I was obligated to spend it anywhere other than what I want to spend it on, except for the abominable health care insurance that was crammed down our throats. So, I have difficulty seeing how something can be dissed on one hand and labelled as a usurper on the other hand. After awhile, it sounds like a broken record. >>
Jmski Well said...
We are in the right place at the right time.
Eric
I'm sure that you've all seen the May 31 CW cover story "Mint striking fractional gold bullion coins"
The article of course notes that no such fractionals were struck in '09.
Do you think that this has any implication for fractional 2010 W AGEs or Buffs?
Ron
<< <i>Folks-
I'm sure that you've all seen the May 31 CW cover story "Mint striking fractional gold bullion coins"
The article of course notes that no such fractionals were struck in '09.
Do you think that this has any implication for fractional 2010 W AGEs or Buffs?
Ron >>
2009-dated fractional bullion gold eagles were released in December 2009.
I don't think the 2010 bullion fractionals have any implication, pro or con, as to the possibility of "W" collector versions this year.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
however, once one notices a tulip bulb craze, a bubble, or whatever you would like to call the dramatic price increases over the last year of the Buffalo Gold Issues of 2008W - you have to approach these high price levels with caution - as even EricJ96 has mentioned that price decreases of 30% would not be uncommon in the short run based on the action of prices in this issue.
no issue goes straight up and sustains those prices. nothing does.
i don't believe these coins have in any way matured in price. the price levels have approached what i believe is maturity for these coins 5 years out. that in itself is a problem.
if you acquired these coins from the USM directly, or have purchased them for even 2x-3x original issue, you probably have nothing to worry about. enjoy them. they are great looking coins and immensly popular.