<< <i>I pulled up the mintage data on the 2008 w AGE Uncs prior to posting my question and noted the relative mintage. That's why I asked if I was missing something. It just seemed undervalued. If my partner wants to sell for spot (which he said he does) I'll buy his four.
Raufus, there haven't been many sales of the 2008-W 1 oz. AGE lately, so I'm not too sure which way the market is trending, but.............in OGP, I show that most of the sales on ebay have ranged between $1,600 to $1,900.
In NGC or PCGS MS-69, the range has been $1,275 to $1,525.
In NGC or PCGS MS-70, the range has been $1,575 to $1,975.
Based on the data, I'd say that a fair value is around $1,550 for an arm-length transaction, but I'm holding onto mine in anticipation of higher prices. >>
jmski-
Thanks very much for this insightful analysis! It is greatly appreciated.
It will be interesting to see if this no reserve auction will go above the current reserve auction of another set that has a reserve of over $7K. Its already over $6k and the snipers haven't even hit.
It will be interesting to see if this no reserve auction will go above the current reserve auction of another set that has a reserve of over $7K. Its already over $6k and the snipers haven't even hit. >>
from 6000 (watching from about an hour to close) to close at only 6600.
It will be interesting to see if this no reserve auction will go above the current reserve auction of another set that has a reserve of over $7K. Its already over $6k and the snipers haven't even hit. >>
from 6000 (watching from about an hour to close) to close at only 6600.
>>
At only $6600 ????. It rose from $4800 to $6600 in the last 4 hours of the auction. It must have taken cast iron kahonies for that seller to wacth his auction only reach $4800 with a little more than 4 hours to go.
the final price is not too shabby considering recent true auctions for this set have closed recently in the $6700 range. A recent poster to this thread said the buffalo stampede was over and to expect a 15-30% drop off of the highs. It doesn't look to me like this herd is slowing down. Perhaps the uber inflated First Strike ones might but the raw OGP sets are still trading at a nice mark up over purchase price.
I never said you wouldnt make a nice profit over issue I did say you will be experiencing a drop of 15-30% (which is very normal after such a run) Anyone purchasing at current prices must have steel "you know whats" to risk thier $$$ An ungraded set like the one sold should find it's way back into the $4's very soon One should never expect that all auctions end in a completed sale, especially when buyers have very low feedback
<< <i>I never said you wouldnt make a nice profit over issue I did say you will be experiencing a drop of 15-30% (which is very normal after such a run) Anyone purchasing at current prices must have steel "you know whats" to risk thier $$$ An ungraded set like the one sold should find it's way back into the $4's very soon One should never expect that all auctions end in a completed sale, especially when buyers have very low feedback >>
You Know Whats
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
My question is this...are these the numbers we've been tossing around for the plats the last few months? For the Uncs, the 2006 numbers seem way low and for the proofs, the 2005 numbers also seem low. Or am I just imagining things???
I continue to post my chart and no one has ever disputed any of the figures (Not to be arrogant, I'm saying that I believe they are accurate figures). These numbers were taken from the U.S. Mint's website:
And I thank you for continuing to post your chart as I have the *&%#$#*&^(&*)( time trying to find it when I have a question about mintage. This thread has such long legs that I lose track of what page your chart appeared last. Thank you for being so diligent.;
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
<<The Reds Books moderns coverage and mintage tables are a bad joke.... because they just dont care enough about moderns to cross check their work. >>
Soooo...assuming the Red Book is using seriously flawed numbers for moderns, including the Plats...and assuming quite a few collectors are using the Red Book as a reference...this begs the question...is this faulty data negatively impacting the collectibility of the platinum series? And especially the key dates of the series which are being falsely represented from a scarcity point of view?
I know I sat up and took notice late last night and thought...what's going on here with these numbers? And the mintages in the three-digits REALLY took the cake!
<<Just wondering if those figures omit the four-coin sets???>>
Good question...and it's not clear since the section of the book that lists sets does not include mintages.
Another issue is that some of the mintages are presented in parentheses, for example (1,234)...bit in common usage that only should represent an approximate number.
<< <i>And I thank you for continuing to post your chart as I have the *&%#$#*&^(&*)( time trying to find it when I have a question about mintage. This thread has such long legs that I lose track of what page your chart appeared last. Thank you for being so diligent.; >>
You're welcome. I have an ulterior motive...I'm hoping that if it's flawed, someone will tell me.
<< <i>And I thank you for continuing to post your chart as I have the *&%#$#*&^(&*)( time trying to find it when I have a question about mintage. This thread has such long legs that I lose track of what page your chart appeared last. Thank you for being so diligent.; >>
You're welcome. I have an ulterior motive...I'm hoping that if it's flawed, someone will tell me. >>
Overall your numbers look good. Much better than most of the listings I see routinely posted on the net. My chart for these coins is the same with 4 exceptions.
The $100 1997 had a three coin set option from what I understand that included a $100 proof plat. 20,851 The 10 year anniversary set from what I was told by the Mint had a major downward rev when final finals came out and that makes sense because we know there were plenty of us that returned some. 22,873 proof halves in all ofter forms and 16,937 anniversary halves is what I was told.
I am showing 36,993 for the $10 proof plat.
I am showing for the 2007w MS plats 4,177 3,635 3,690 5,556
I'm just sayin that bidders who are either not "long time" users, or are not "frequent buyers", or for some other reason have a small amount of feedback generally dont show up bidding several thousand dollars on a gold set. Many sellers want a bidder on such a high priced item to have a little more feedback than that......
Is this sale a good one? Who knows. Single feedback bidder in the $4k range and then again slightly higher then goes away? Hmmm.
Hopefully the buyer complete's the sale. I know I would be cautiously awaiting payment.
I sold one of my 4 coin Unc Buff sets just a few weeks ago for $6,900 to a first time e-bay buyer. Sure I was a little nervous, but I checked things out and did all I could to ensure there would be no problems and guess what no problems, payment received, coins delivered and positive feedback left.
BST transactions Wondercoin, MCM, levinll, Zrlevin and ajaan. Been buying and selling coins on E-Bay since 2002 as Monk2580
You may deal with a "first time" buyer and may have no problems,
But there are many forum members and I personally know many ebay sellers that would rather deal with more "well established" bidders
Just because you received funds and think it went smooth doesn't necessarily mean there wont be a dreaded "charge-back" in your future, which has also been felt by some as well.......some as long as 6 months past the sale date!!!!
All you can do is protect yourself with electronic signature, shipping only to confirmed addresses, etc, and hope that holds up........if you happen to be surprised later by a claim. '
Checking out / Doing your homework on the buyer involves investigating feedback with other sellers for high $$ items - a little tough to do when they have very little feedback......
<<The Reds Books moderns coverage and mintage tables are a bad joke.... because they just dont care enough about moderns to cross check their work. >>
And I would add that sloppy research is bad enough when one is publishing a alledged reference book....but I'd really like someone to explain how the Red Book is also coming up with higher prices to accompany their bad mintagedata! Now that's a REAL trick and a half!
<< <i>The $100 1997 had a three coin set option from what I understand that included a $100 proof plat. 20,851 The 10 year anniversary set from what I was told by the Mint had a major downward rev when final finals came out and that makes sense because we know there were plenty of us that returned some. 22,873 proof halves in all ofter forms and 16,937 anniversary halves is what I was told.
I am showing 36,993 for the $10 proof plat.
I am showing for the 2007w MS plats 4,177 3,635 3,690 5,556
Everything else we read exactly the same.
Eric >>
Thanks Eric. I was able to verify all the corrections except the 2007 10th Anniversary numbers. There still seems to be some consternation at the Mint?
I was given 16,937 as the final final number for the 10th anniversary platinum set. I asked twice two different people. Thats what I am running with if its not correct not much I can do about it. 19000 or 17000 is too fine a difference for the weekly sales report to help me call them on it. We know that set was for sale forever and many returned them or rolled them for grades. I have not gone back through the two years of weekly sales reports to look for mintage sales reversals that may have indicated a calculation of returns. If if at least one large return reversal does not show up in the weekly sales report you can be certain that the final final recalcuation would impose a big fat downward revision.
The Julia gold unc may come in under 2 of the 2008 plat unc coins, that is pretty amazing considering it is gold. Also looks like they shipped my order, that was fast.
Red represents the lowest for denomination and finish, green 2nd lowest & blue is the highest. The "% lowest" represents the mintage numbers of the lowest year as compared to the 2nd lowest year. The purpose is to show the relationship between mintage figures. Many people believe that to be a clear "King," a coin must have noticeable separation from its peers. For instance, the burnished plats do not have an appreciable delineation in the mintage figures nor do they have a sustained production. The $10 proof clearly exceeds the aforementioned.
How long until the PCGS price guide reflects the market in Spouses? Currently, the uncs range $800-815 and the proofs $810-825 in -69. The unc mintages range 20k to 4k and the proofs run 20k to 7k. At some point in time the recent Spouses should show a premium to the 2007 Ladies.
Give it time brother, good looking mint state gold with a 2.8 to 3.2 thousand mintage or a proof gold issue with a 4.8-5.2 thousand mintage will have its day. Its just a matter of time...................
Its funny. The heard shows up to buy roughly 20,000 mintage seriously ugly coins but misses the boat on good looking ultra low mitnage modern issues struck on gold or platinum. Go figure.
<< <i>How long until the PCGS price guide reflects the market in Spouses? Currently, the uncs range $800-815 and the proofs $810-825 in -69. The unc mintages range 20k to 4k and the proofs run 20k to 7k. At some point in time the recent Spouses should show a premium to the 2007 Ladies. >>
This might be interesting as they have many pics, accept all forms of payment, give a phone number for contact, have strong feedback, and appear to primarily sell coins.
Eric (or others with an opinion on this): Why do you feel that the Julia UNC. will end up being the key to the FS series? As was mentioned, we are coming up upon a lot of little known and plain looking First Ladies. Is it no likely that some of them will end early with even lower sales?
This might be interesting as they have many pics, accept all forms of payment, give a phone number for contact, have strong feedback, and appear to primarily sell coins.
Miles >>
Bestcrystal is the new (years now), ID of Paul Sims Inc. Look him up in the archives if you want to get a ear full.
This might be interesting as they have many pics, accept all forms of payment, give a phone number for contact, have strong feedback, and appear to primarily sell coins.
Miles >>
Well the Top is in at $7750 + free shipping with the BIN's.
Eric (or others with an opinion on this): Why do you feel that the Julia UNC. will end up being the key to the FS series? As was mentioned, we are coming up upon a lot of little known and plain looking First Ladies. Is it no likely that some of them will end early with even lower sales?
Thanks! Ron >>
Comrade Ronski, I would tend to agree with you. The post-Lincoln spouses in conjunction with an economy double-dipping, IMHO, thereafter higher metal prices will produce sub-2000 Spouses. That should happen somewhere between Lady Lincoln and Lady (FDR) Roosevelt. Maybe another year or two of contraction, 2010-2011 followed by hefty inflation, 2012-2014.
Comments
<< <i>7,500 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! >>
And higher than the mintage of many of the coins we're talking about!
<< <i>I pulled up the mintage data on the 2008 w AGE Uncs prior to posting my question and noted the relative mintage. That's why I asked if I was missing something. It just seemed undervalued. If my partner wants to sell for spot (which he said he does) I'll buy his four.
Raufus, there haven't been many sales of the 2008-W 1 oz. AGE lately, so I'm not too sure which way the market is trending, but.............in OGP, I show that most of the sales on ebay have ranged between $1,600 to $1,900.
In NGC or PCGS MS-69, the range has been $1,275 to $1,525.
In NGC or PCGS MS-70, the range has been $1,575 to $1,975.
Based on the data, I'd say that a fair value is around $1,550 for an arm-length transaction, but I'm holding onto mine in anticipation of higher prices. >>
jmski-
Thanks very much for this insightful analysis! It is greatly appreciated.
Ron
<< <i>true auction in USA, no return, ships to USA, MS 4 coin set ending soon >>
It will be interesting to see if this no reserve auction will go above the current reserve auction of another set that has a reserve of over $7K. Its already over $6k and the snipers haven't even hit.
<< <i>true auction in USA, no return, ships to USA, MS 4 coin set ending soon >>
Not very good pics that's for sure!
<< <i>
<< <i>true auction in USA, no return, ships to USA, MS 4 coin set ending soon >>
It will be interesting to see if this no reserve auction will go above the current reserve auction of another set that has a reserve of over $7K. Its already over $6k and the snipers haven't even hit. >>
from 6000 (watching from about an hour to close) to close at only 6600.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>true auction in USA, no return, ships to USA, MS 4 coin set ending soon >>
It will be interesting to see if this no reserve auction will go above the current reserve auction of another set that has a reserve of over $7K. Its already over $6k and the snipers haven't even hit. >>
from 6000 (watching from about an hour to close) to close at only 6600.
At only $6600 ????. It rose from $4800 to $6600 in the last 4 hours of the auction. It must have taken cast iron kahonies for that seller to wacth his auction only reach $4800 with a little more than 4 hours to go.
the final price is not too shabby considering recent true auctions for this set have closed recently in the $6700 range. A recent poster to this thread said the buffalo stampede was over and to expect a 15-30% drop off of the highs. It doesn't look to me like this herd is slowing down. Perhaps the uber inflated First Strike ones might but the raw OGP sets are still trading at a nice mark up over purchase price.
I did say you will be experiencing a drop of 15-30% (which is very normal after such a run)
Anyone purchasing at current prices must have steel "you know whats" to risk thier $$$
An ungraded set like the one sold should find it's way back into the $4's very soon
One should never expect that all auctions end in a completed sale, especially when buyers have very low feedback
<< <i>I never said you wouldnt make a nice profit over issue
I did say you will be experiencing a drop of 15-30% (which is very normal after such a run)
Anyone purchasing at current prices must have steel "you know whats" to risk thier $$$
An ungraded set like the one sold should find it's way back into the $4's very soon
One should never expect that all auctions end in a completed sale, especially when buyers have very low feedback >>
You Know Whats
also lots of activity from bidders with under 100 feedback.....
<< <i>pretty big bids for user with 1 feedback.....
also lots of activity from bidders with under 100 feedback..... >>
low feedback == low money???
that's a new one...
<< <i>
<< <i>pretty big bids for user with 1 feedback.....
also lots of activity from bidders with under 100 feedback..... >>
low feedback == low money???
that's a new one... >>
exactly, 7uber8 makes a lot of broad sweeping claims based on his opinions....... just sayin, seems to me.
$10 Tenth Ounce
2006W: 1,555
2007W: 3,080
2008W: 2,465
$25 Quarter Ounce
2006W: 687
2007W: 1,204
2008W: 1,736
$50 Half Ounce
2006W: 588
2007W: 1,149
2008W: 1,257
$100 One Ounce
2006W: 1,079
2007W: 1,691
2008W: 1,905
And for the Proof issues:
$10 Tenth Ounce
2005W: 2,583
2006W: 4,899
2007W: 3,581
2008W: 3,052
$25 Quarter Ounce
2005W: 932
2006W: 2,507
2007W: 1,422
2008W: 1,293
$50 Half Ounce
2005W: 846
2006W: 2,343
2007W: 1,341
2008W: 1,056
$100 One Ounce
2005W: 1,663
2006W: 3,846
2007W: 3,768
2008W: 2,432
My question is this...are these the numbers we've been tossing around for the plats the last few months? For the Uncs, the 2006 numbers seem way low and for the proofs, the 2005 numbers also seem low. Or am I just imagining things???
Wondercoin
What is your thread?
Wondercoin
Soooo...assuming the Red Book is using seriously flawed numbers for moderns, including the Plats...and assuming quite a few collectors are using the Red Book as a reference...this begs the question...is this faulty data negatively impacting the collectibility of the platinum series? And especially the key dates of the series which are being falsely represented from a scarcity point of view?
I know I sat up and took notice late last night and thought...what's going on here with these numbers? And the mintages in the three-digits REALLY took the cake!
Good question...and it's not clear since the section of the book that lists sets does not include mintages.
Another issue is that some of the mintages are presented in parentheses, for example (1,234)...bit in common usage that only should represent an approximate number.
<< <i>And I thank you for continuing to post your chart as I have the *&%#$#*&^(&*)( time trying to find it when I have a question about mintage. This thread has such long legs that I lose track of what page your chart appeared last. Thank you for being so diligent.;
You're welcome. I have an ulterior motive...I'm hoping that if it's flawed, someone will tell me.
<< <i>
<< <i>And I thank you for continuing to post your chart as I have the *&%#$#*&^(&*)( time trying to find it when I have a question about mintage. This thread has such long legs that I lose track of what page your chart appeared last. Thank you for being so diligent.;
You're welcome. I have an ulterior motive...I'm hoping that if it's flawed, someone will tell me.
Overall your numbers look good. Much better than most of the listings I see routinely posted on the net. My chart for these coins is the same with 4 exceptions.
The $100 1997 had a three coin set option from what I understand that included a $100 proof plat. 20,851
The 10 year anniversary set from what I was told by the Mint had a major downward rev when final finals came out and that makes sense because we know there were plenty of us that returned some. 22,873 proof halves in all ofter forms and 16,937 anniversary halves is what I was told.
I am showing 36,993 for the $10 proof plat.
I am showing for the 2007w MS plats
4,177
3,635
3,690
5,556
Everything else we read exactly the same.
Eric
I'm just sayin that bidders who are either not "long time" users, or are not "frequent buyers", or for some other reason have a small amount of feedback generally dont show up bidding several thousand dollars on a gold set. Many sellers want a bidder on such a high priced item to have a little more feedback than that......
Is this sale a good one? Who knows. Single feedback bidder in the $4k range and then again slightly higher then goes away? Hmmm.
Hopefully the buyer complete's the sale. I know I would be cautiously awaiting payment.
new does not mean "not serious" or "not worthy."
But there are many forum members and I personally know many ebay sellers that would rather deal with more "well established" bidders
Just because you received funds and think it went smooth doesn't necessarily mean there wont be a dreaded "charge-back" in your future, which has also been felt by some as well.......some as long as 6 months past the sale date!!!!
All you can do is protect yourself with electronic signature, shipping only to confirmed addresses, etc, and hope that holds up........if you happen to be surprised later by a claim. '
Checking out / Doing your homework on the buyer involves investigating feedback with other sellers for high $$ items - a little tough to do when they have very little feedback......
And I would add that sloppy research is bad enough when one is publishing a alledged reference book....but I'd really like someone to explain how the Red Book is also coming up with higher prices to accompany their bad mintagedata! Now that's a REAL trick and a half!
<< <i>The $100 1997 had a three coin set option from what I understand that included a $100 proof plat. 20,851
The 10 year anniversary set from what I was told by the Mint had a major downward rev when final finals came out and that makes sense because we know there were plenty of us that returned some. 22,873 proof halves in all ofter forms and 16,937 anniversary halves is what I was told.
I am showing 36,993 for the $10 proof plat.
I am showing for the 2007w MS plats
4,177
3,635
3,690
5,556
Everything else we read exactly the same.
Eric >>
Thanks Eric. I was able to verify all the corrections except the 2007 10th Anniversary numbers. There still seems to be some consternation at the Mint?
<< <i>what is the meaning behind %Lowest? >>
Red represents the lowest for denomination and finish, green 2nd lowest & blue is the highest. The "% lowest" represents the mintage numbers of the lowest year as compared to the 2nd lowest year. The purpose is to show the relationship between mintage figures. Many people believe that to be a clear "King," a coin must have noticeable separation from its peers. For instance, the burnished plats do not have an appreciable delineation in the mintage figures nor do they have a sustained production. The $10 proof clearly exceeds the aforementioned.
Its funny. The heard shows up to buy roughly 20,000 mintage seriously ugly coins but misses the boat on good looking ultra low mitnage modern issues struck on gold or platinum. Go figure.
<< <i>How long until the PCGS price guide reflects the market in Spouses? Currently, the uncs range $800-815 and the proofs $810-825 in -69. The unc mintages range 20k to 4k and the proofs run 20k to 7k. At some point in time the recent Spouses should show a premium to the 2007 Ladies. >>
DITTO
This might be interesting as they have many pics, accept all forms of payment, give a phone number for contact, have strong feedback, and appear to primarily sell coins.
Miles
Just curious, when did you order your Julia Unc.?
Did/are folks buying the Julia Proof?
Eric (or others with an opinion on this): Why do you feel that the Julia UNC. will end up being the key to the FS series? As was mentioned, we are coming up upon a lot of little known and plain looking First Ladies. Is it no likely that some of them will end early with even lower sales?
Thanks! Ron
<< <i>WOW, a Real Proof Buffalo Gold Set Auction with no BIN!!
This might be interesting as they have many pics, accept all forms of payment, give a phone number for contact, have strong feedback, and appear to primarily sell coins.
Miles >>
Bestcrystal is the new (years now), ID of Paul Sims Inc. Look him up in the archives if you want to get a ear full.
"I can't get this cleaned Indian shipped back quickly enough" to Sims GAT?
Miles
<< <i>I bought a PR69 Julia Proof from MCM, just cause Raufus (a bit above spot helps) and you are referring to the:
"I can't get this cleaned Indian shipped back quickly enough" to Sims GAT?
Miles >>
The only thing I am referring to Miles, is their reputation. If you read the archive for Paul Sims Inc you will instantly see what I mean.
<< <i>WOW, a Real Proof Buffalo Gold Set Auction with no BIN!!
This might be interesting as they have many pics, accept all forms of payment, give a phone number for contact, have strong feedback, and appear to primarily sell coins.
Miles >>
Well the Top is in at $7750 + free shipping with the BIN's.
Prices are softening.
<< <i>Hi Half-
Just curious, when did you order your Julia Unc.?
Did/are folks buying the Julia Proof?
Eric (or others with an opinion on this): Why do you feel that the Julia UNC. will end up being the key to the FS series? As was mentioned, we are coming up upon a lot of little known and plain looking First Ladies. Is it no likely that some of them will end early with even lower sales?
Thanks! Ron >>
Comrade Ronski, I would tend to agree with you. The post-Lincoln spouses in conjunction with an economy double-dipping, IMHO, thereafter higher metal prices will produce sub-2000 Spouses. That should happen somewhere between Lady Lincoln and Lady (FDR) Roosevelt. Maybe another year or two of contraction, 2010-2011 followed by hefty inflation, 2012-2014.
Comrade Renski