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  • nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    700! imageimageimageimageimageimageimage
    Dan
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    After the "purge" is over, how are surviving numbers determined? A census? Educated guess?

    This price run-up changes a lot of population assumptions - like practically all of them. The problem is, what level of assurance is there that the new population assumptions are even close to reality?

    This is not even the first time that platinum coin prices have been overtaken by an increasing bullion price. In fact, this has been happening with great regularity since 1998.

    I was curious, so I looked at some of my old records. I bought some 1 oz. Unc. Plats in Dec. 1998 when platinum was at $365.00/oz., and sold them in 2000 for a healthy profit, at a price of $560.00/oz. Apparently, at that time, I couldn't stand the suspense, so I cashed out. However, this platinum market has never looked back - the rate of increase has actually increased since back then.

    The salient question is - how many of those 1998 1 ozers have survived until today as this process has kept repeating itself every year or two? Although those weren't Proofs, the principal is the same - how many coins survive the lure of a nice profit in such a short time frame, especially when this turnover is continuous over a period of several years?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • RarityRarity Posts: 1,420 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Since yesterday, I have found four (4) Platinum proof 2005-W $50 listed for bidding on Ebay.

    Thanks for the heads-up. I'll track those auctions. I bet they don't go for melt.

    Added on 2-14: Rarity, I can't find them. What search criteria did you use to locate them? >>



    This is one, I saw about 5 but I have to track them now to see where they are
    $50 Plat Proof

    Another $50 Proof Plat that could not sell



  • TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    You could set up some type of survey on the net, just like other coin societies have and that could be one portion of determining numbers.....

    Debating if I want to go and fine the 97,98,99 & 00 proof coins I need for my collection.....

    Sure I can find them for melt, if I can find them at all locally.....
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This is one, I saw about 5 but I have to track them now to see where they are
    $50 Plat Proof


    Ah, I don't usually track buy-it-now or minimum bid auctions because I don't consider them to always reflect actual bidding activity like a real auction. That's why I might have missed them.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,982 ✭✭✭✭✭

    High platinum prices don't necessarily translate into massive melts. Many investors and PM enthusiasts may hang on to their platinum if they expect even higher prices ahead. There's also the "inertia factor" from platinum holders who aren't aware of the price rise or don't need to sell immediately to raise money.

    There's also the issue of how many plat collectors are wealthy enough to continue collecting the series regardless of price. There's a certain cachet to owning a large, rare coin made of a premium precious metal. This could actually encourage some high-end collectors to buy into this series. With mintages in the low thousands, not that many collectors would be needed to sustain an active market in plats going forward.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • I'm taking about 4 oz. of PCGS FS MS and PR69's to sell to the bullion guy today. Can't sell them on TT or eBay and net what you can get from the bullion guy. What he does with them I don't know. If the price keeps rising, my 2006-W FS MS69's will follow!

    I love the coins, but I'm not going to add to my collection (or hold my collection) knowing that the price could be back at $500 at some point. I'm still young, I'll wait buy back in down the road.

    Randy
  • NeoStarNeoStar Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭
    It's amazing how much the Platinum collecting field has changed in the past few weeks. With the ongoing situation in Africa I think Platinum will see higher prices before this whole mess is over. I think it is time to re-prioritize our collecting goals. I think that in the months to come we will see common date PAEs leaving weak hands in large amounts. Like jmski52 mentioned in an earlier post, PAE offerings on eBay have nearly triple in the past week.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    High platinum prices don't necessarily translate into massive melts. Many investors and PM enthusiasts may hang on to their platinum if they expect even higher prices ahead. There's also the "inertia factor" from platinum holders who aren't aware of the price rise or don't need to sell immediately to raise money.

    There's also the issue of how many plat collectors are wealthy enough to continue collecting the series regardless of price. There's a certain cachet to owning a large, rare coin made of a premium precious metal. This could actually encourage some high-end collectors to buy into this series. With mintages in the low thousands, not that many collectors would be needed to sustain an active market in plats going forward.


    I'm taking about 4 oz. of PCGS FS MS and PR69's to sell to the bullion guy today. Can't sell them on TT or eBay and net what you can get from the bullion guy. What he does with them I don't know. If the price keeps rising, my 2006-W FS MS69's will follow!

    I love the coins, but I'm not going to add to my collection (or hold my collection) knowing that the price could be back at $500 at some point. I'm still young, I'll wait buy back in down the road.


    These are perfect examples of the cross-currents we are seeing in platinum now. Some coins are bound to be disappearing, and some new collectors might be brought into the mix. This is new territory - very interesting territory at that.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    How high can we go without any dip at all, amazing.....

    Those 2008 bullion coins are going to be really low mintage this year.....

    The numbers for the W Unc & Proof are likely to break low mintage records this year if this keeps up.....
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
  • GritsManGritsMan Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I'm taking about 4 oz. of PCGS FS MS and PR69's to sell to the bullion guy today. Can't sell them on TT or eBay and net what you can get from the bullion guy. What he does with them I don't know.
    >>



    Ask him! We're all dying to know!

    And I, too, have never seen so many coins on eBay. Interesting to see how many slabbed bullion coins are coming out of the woodwork. With little or no collector base, these have all got to be going to speculators, I would think.

    Neo, you're right. What a difference a couple weeks makes!
    Winner of the Coveted Devil Award June 8th, 2010
  • ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭
    Well just my view. The Proofs and W Unc's don't have large numbers produced any year even in the high years. If Indursty use is really needed that bad I think they'll go after the regular bullion coins first since that's what they were sold as to investors for the most part and not collectors. There's a lot more of those not to mention we aren't the only ones that produce platinum coins so unless this really last a long time I think there will be very few collector coins gone after. JMO
  • nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    I just made a purchase which a month ago would have been unthinkable- a 1998 PCGS PF69 DCAM 4 coin set for $3774.50, shipped

    The only reasons I did it: (1) its actually less than current melt value, and (2) the auction allowed payment using paypal, which gets me 3,775 frequent flier points on AMEX.

    Transaction fees are the biggest deterrent to quick flip opportunities, ebay fees and paypal cut away about 5%. I need to sell for over $3990 (if using ebay/paypal) to hit breakeven (at $3990 my profit would be the AMEX points, minus timevalue of $3800 until sale, or about .50 a day).

    Dan
  • I'm worried about a few back date fractionals from the late 90s I am missing myself.
  • @ nycounsel - I sent you an important private message. check your e-mail box when you get a chance.

    @ all: could someone post the real (final) mintage figures for proof plats? (of course there is no final numbers for 2007 yet). I find out there's a significant difference between the numbers on the Mint web site and those copy/pasted here by neostar. I'd really appreciate it.

    Regards,
    Marcin.
  • GraveDigger,

    Hi!

    ****These are the numbers I have. The numbers came directly from the mint's website.****imageimage

    image
    image
  • Its a very curious effect that the rising price of platinum can have on these coins. Yes, many will be melted, completely destroying our understanding of the mintage figures from the mint.

    On the other hand, it can bring new collectors into the game as the surging prices attract attention. What drew me into several series of coins are the discussions that happen here and also in the popular press. It happened with the Goodacre Presenation Sacagawea Dollars from 2000. Major news sites were reporting that they were selling for $400 each and soon after the prices surged to 2x to 3x that. They have fallen a little, but have remained well above the initial levels that attracted attention. The same thing happened with 2004 plat proofs. They drew a great deal of attention and sent the prices surging. Yes, they have fallen since then, but have generally remained at 3x to 4x issue price.

    I think the run up in the price of platinum will serve to bring new collectors to this coin simply because of its price performance (there certainly is a renewed vigor to the discussion here and quite a few new "faces" as well). Combine that with the increasing "sell off" that results gives the appearance that these coins are "plentiful" which further increases their appeal: Easy to find, low mintage, rapidly increasing price: what a winning combination. Don't forget that many will be melted. Thus, in one major price run-up, we have a growing collector base (don't forget the mint moved over 15,000 10th anniv sets) combined with a decreasing population of coin.

    I think that a number of years from now (assuming there is no "major" retreat in the price of platinum), the entire set will become VERY difficult to find. When they begin to disappear from e-bay, TT, and other popular venues, the prices will begin to climb rather quickly. I've been thinking that the window for catching up on past issues has been closing for the past 2 years now.

    Eric
    EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
  • nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    I think that a number of years from now (assuming there is no "major" retreat in the price of platinum), the entire set will become VERY difficult to find.

    And a heck of a lot more difficult to afford!

    With no numismatic premium the eleven 4-coin proof sets from 1997 to 2007 would cost $43,000 at current spot of $2100/ounce.

    Toss in the burnished uncirculateds for 2006 and 2007 priced at melt and that's another $7800.

    Add in the non-w uncirculateds, and a negligible premium for the keys (2004 proof and 2006 w unc) and you're easily looking at total acquisition cost of $100,000.

    Every $100 increase in spot = $185 increase in the price of each 4 coin set. On the 11 proof sets alone that's $2035 each time spot moves $100.

    Dan
  • Correct but those that are on a budget may just buy the tenths or the quarters, have complete denominational sets and side step all the big coins metal cost.

    Full type set of quarters is

    97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 06-w, 07-w, old RP bullion , matte bullion,

    Thats a 15 coin set. Its getting pretty big.

    Grand total cost = roughly $8500.

    The tenths full set comes in about $4500.

    Granted thats a major price tag but what classic set can you buy with mintages running from 2,700 to 18,000 for that kind of money that are design based type coins every year?
    ********

    The big plats have problems....way to much money for the common dates. Guys on a budget may dump them if they already have them or not start collecting them if they don't. Thing is the big coins could be the ones that take it on the chin the hardest and end up being the ones to hold long term because few survive. People with money tend to like the big coins but there are not enough heavy hitters around right now and may not be for 10+ years.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,982 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Annual shortfall between platinum supply and demand is now being reported as 400,000 oz. or higher.

    That's nearly equal to the total mintage of U.S. platinum coins since 1997, including all bullion and collector versions!


    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,982 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I read that some platinum exchange traded funds available in Europe are becoming more popular - an additional source of demand.


    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)



  • << <i>Annual shortfall between platinum supply and demand is now being reported as 400,000 oz. or higher.

    That's nearly equal to the total mintage of U.S. platinum coins since 1997, including all bullion and collector versions! >>




    Thanks for the data....interesting!
  • With the price of platinum going nuts I was wondering if our friends at the mint were considering the use of palladium as a substitute for platinum and if they were going to continue striking plats in the next few years. After talking to our friends they made several good points.

    1. The mint has to follow the enabling legislation. The legislation calls for platinum not palladium so thats what the program is until the mints authority or instructions change.
    2. The mint was instructed to strike platinum eagles and they will do so. Just like Nickels are a major loss every time they have a run.

    SO

    I guess we can expect some platinum eagles next year but the question is how many? If I were the mint I would not strike many up front and I will be one of the first to buy them this year at whatever the cost. Normally I don't start getting active until about November.
  • NeoStarNeoStar Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭
    Eric,

    I will be there with you at 12:00 Noon on the first day of release. With the price of bullion so volatile I doubt the mint will strike tons of these at once and risk loosing money on a big drop. If the price of Platinum continues to rise, new keys will be made...
  • TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    I agree that when the W unc & Proof coins go on sale you have to get these right away.
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
  • GATGAT Posts: 3,146
    The Mint should melt whatever 2007 platinum coins they have left and use it to mint 2008 coins.
    USAF vet 1951-59
  • Do you think I will ever see these.......B/O


    2007 AMER EAGLE PLAT 1/2 OZ UNC W/MNT 4 $830.95 $3,323.80 4 units backordered. Expected to ship on 03/06/2008.


  • << <i>Do you think I will ever see these.......B/O


    2007 AMER EAGLE PLAT 1/2 OZ UNC W/MNT 4 $830.95 $3,323.80 4 units backordered. Expected to ship on 03/06/2008. >>



    I would think that your chances are slim. Sounds like they are waiting on returns in order to fill your order. Given the rise in plat spot, I'd be surprised to see any returns...

    Eric
    EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
  • NeoStarNeoStar Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭
    The Mint should melt whatever 2007 platinum coins they have left and use it to mint 2008 coins.

    That would be an excellent move provided that the stock they have in hand was purchased at a reasonable cost (compared to today's prices). That would fill the first orders without taking a risk on a price drop. Will they do it? That is definitely a different matter. A very good idea indeed!
  • GrivGriv Posts: 2,804


    << <i>Eric,

    I will be there with you at 12:00 Noon on the first day of release. With the price of bullion so volatile I doubt the mint will strike tons of these at once and risk loosing money on a big drop. If the price of Platinum continues to rise, new keys will be made... >>



    Any idea when that might be? image
  • I was also wondering when we would see 2008 plat coins this year. If the mint is looking to move the greatest number of plat coins this year (thus maximizing profits), do they issue them early (anticipating that the price will continue to rise) or issue them later (anticipating the price to fall back) ??

    "Inquiring minds what to know"

    Eric
    EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,551 ✭✭✭
    If the mint offers palladiium I sure won't be buying. It's either platinum or nothing for me, since I have been collecting platinum now for 4 years.

    So is the final mintage for the 10th Anniversary Platinum Set going to be around 17K. I see the mint price for the set now around $2500. Certainly it would be the nail in the coffin to finally put these to rest.
  • 2008 Platinum is the most attractive design yet....IMHO
  • ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>If the mint offers palladiium I sure won't be buying. It's either platinum or nothing for me, since I have been collecting platinum now for 4 years.

    So is the final mintage for the 10th Anniversary Platinum Set going to be around 17K. I see the mint price for the set now around $2500. Certainly it would be the nail in the coffin to finally put these to rest. >>




    They've been reporting that figure for quite some time now and it won't stand once all the backorder are filled. The mints always been slow of reporting mintages and on the Plat's it seems to take at least a year or two before they can agree on the finial mintage. So I wouldn't hold your breath.
  • The anniversary platinum are over. They will not be selling these anytime soon.
  • NeoStarNeoStar Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭
    << Eric,

    I will be there with you at 12:00 Noon on the first day of release. With the price of bullion so volatile I doubt the mint will strike tons of these at once and risk loosing money on a big drop. If the price of Platinum continues to rise, new keys will be made... >>



    Any idea when that might be?


    Some day sir some day!!! image Maybe at some point before 2009???
  • April, May, June, July or August........ isn't it nice to be able to nail it down so closely! LOLOLOL!


    Eric


  • << <i>April, May, June, July or August........ >>



    Yep, that would be my guess as well based on past performance. Precision is such a great tool!

    Eric
    EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
  • goldman86goldman86 Posts: 497 ✭✭✭
    This is easily the most informative thread I've read in a long time!!! Thanks to all who are participating!!!
    The Stealth Ninja


  • << <i>2008 Platinum is the most attractive design yet....IMHO >>

    image
    I like the 98, as well!!image
    SEE the BULL!! BUY the BULL!! BE the BULL!! Do your homework first. And, you will learn alot!!
  • thanks a lot PandaNation for those mintage figures - appreciate it. I'm such a dumbass sometimes image. I just forgot to add the numbers for 4 coin sets, that's where this difference were coming from.

    Mint has finally published the numbers for uncirculated 2007 platinum (and gold) eagles. Do you guys think these numbers include "w" platinum coins as well? I don't think so, but to be on a safe side - I just have to ask.

    Best,
    Marcin.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,118 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Mint finally has published the numbers for uncirculated 2007 platinum (and gold) eagles. Do you guys think these numbers include "w" platinum coins as well? I don't think so, but to be on a safe side - I just have to ask >>



    They do not include the W's ...Plat. AGE's & ASE's .... btw the 2007-W AGE's & ASE's are still for sale by the Mint.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,982 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Everybody is going to buy the 2008 plats because they're going to be rare because they are too expensive so nobody's going to buy them! image

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • RarityRarity Posts: 1,420 ✭✭✭✭
    Eventually only astute collectors can afford platinum coins while the average collectors will drop by the sideway
  • TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    The 2008 1/10 Proof coins is probably going to cost $300 bucks.....

    WOW
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
  • When I first got interested in the $50 proofs, they cost $600 each - I thought that was a lot of money. I started (slowly) catching up on back issues, but didn't get very far. Now that they have introduced the w-unc plats, keeping up with the $50s this year will probably cost in excess of $2500! image

    Like others here, I'm ordering mine at 12:00p on the day of issue.

    Eric
    EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
  • ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭
    Well I'm sure I'm one of the only one here that collects the Platinum bullion coins. I've purchased one every year in MS69 either from PCGS or NGC (1/10 ounce). Not this year they just aren't out there, I can't even buy them on Ebay and there been only a few high dollars pieces that can be purchased there. I had to buy a raw one from APEX for $235 which was way high for what I've been buying graded ones for in the past. Now they are over $250. These might be very rare this year since the mint tends to make most of these at the first of the year and they've always been over looked by collectors.

    For me I'm a collector so even if they go way up or down it's fine. Boy back in 1999 I was buying these for $42 each image
  • NeoStarNeoStar Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭
    $42 a piece, WOW! It's amazing how things change!
  • I believe that there are two different scenerios that can make the 2008 platinums rare issues. First off is once issued, platinum continues to climb into 2009,
    causing most collectors to put off purchases based on not being able to afford them. Scenerio #2 is initial purchases are at highs and then price of platinum begins
    to drop into 2009. In this case collectors are afraid to reach out for the falling knife, and as such will not take chance. Either way should produce some rare birds! image
    Audentes fortuna juvat
  • RarityRarity Posts: 1,420 ✭✭✭✭
    Or the Mint will introduce a No Return policy on Platinum and causes mintage to drop off significantly image

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