2007 PROOF PLATS 9,268 5,845+ ANN SETS 5,824 7,387
2007 "W" PLATS 4,425 3,930 3,900 5,783
2007 "W" GOLD 19,466 11,046 12,130 21,469
2007 "W" SILVER 563,771 >>
Thanks Eric , any inside news on how long the 07W gold will be on sale or when the 08W are due to be released. It almost looks like the 06 w gold may still hold up as far as mintages go
I have been trying to get some kind of idea about what is going to happen to mintages in the platinum and gold eagle series in the coming year.
Gold:
In 2005 with a strong economy in place the mint was offering 4 gold collector coins all proof gold eagles. To buy all of them cost $1260. The public spent about 47 million dollars on gold collector coins in 2005. In 2008 the mint has slated a grand total of 24+ gold eagles with purchase price of about 14,000. This includes 4 unc and 4 proof first spouse, 4 proof eagles, 4 "w" eagles, 4 proof buff, 4 unc buff etc.
Lets assume that collector gold coin spending in 08 will be twice what it was in 2005. $95 million / $14,000 = 6,700 coins. The bottom line is mintages are going to hit the floor in 08 for gold. All the old keys are going to be overtaken. Maybe the 99-w gold eagles and Jackie will survive but thats about it.
Platinum: WILL THE 2004 SURVIVE AS KING?
I have been looking for good data points that tell me what the elasticity of demand is for platinum eagles with the changing reverse. The best example I can think of is the 2002-2004 period. There was little flipper activity in that period to throw off the base line demand and prices were on the way up in a big way. The 2002 plat quarters and halves had mintages of about 9,000 coins. In 2003 prices went up 45 % and mintages dropped about 25 %. In 2004 price went up another 25 % and mintages fell another 25%. That an 80 % price spike in two years and a 45 percent sales drop to go with it.
2007 platinum sales are still a mess so lets look at 2006. Material prices were about $1250 and the halves and quarters sold about 7700 coins each. Lets assume material is $2200 in mid 2008 thats a 75 % price increase. ASSUMING the relationships are something close to reality 7600x.55= 4250+ halves and quarters. Now speculators may jump in and bump the sales up to 5000 + coins but it begs the question will the 2004 half and quarter survive as king?
If the proof platinum mintages stay over 5000 then obviously 2004 should be OK provided melting/mishandling of 2007 proofs isn't too pronounced. But what if 08 or 09 come in with mintages in the mid 4000s will that be doom for 04? The answer is "maybe but maybe not............ Ten years out some will collect the plats in cameo proof series. Some will collect by changing reverse "w" in series. Some will collect by design. Notice that the 04 is in the cross roads of the collector base runs. If you collect Unc "w" plats from 2006 to 2015 you may wish to pick up the designs in the only way you can get them in the early years...proof. If you collect proof obviously you will need the 04 and 05.
This is a listing of the total number of changing reverse plat halves by design in proof or unc.
1997....150,000+ Sun-combined 1998....14,000.... Coast 1999....11,000.... Swamp 2000....11,000.... Farm 2001....8,200..... Desert 2002....8,800..... Lake 2003....7,100..... Patriotic Vig 2004....5,000..... Seated America 2005....6,000..... Plenty 2006....10,200.... Legislative-combined 2007....11,000.... Presidential-combined 2008....7,250..... Legislative-combined- If prices are up 25 % over 07 then mintages may fall to very roughly 4000x.75= 3500+
There is a reason I think this could be important. We have many classic examples of series that are collected by proof and MS sets. In those cases where any issue was issued only as a proof the proof price spikes well beyond what the coin should bring based on relative rarity in the proof series.
If you look through the coins listed you will notice that in general the coins are not great a relative rarity in their proof series but they carry 2-5 times that price of the typical proof. This is a direct result of the over lapping of the unc and proof collector base. I have little doubt that this will show up in the plats too the question is to what extent. This is hard to see at this juncture.
Lets assume that collector gold coin spending in 08 will be twice what it was in 2005. $95 million / $14,000 = 6,700 coins. The bottom line is mintages are going to hit the floor in 08 for gold. All the old keys are going to be overtaken. Maybe the 99-w gold eagles and Jackie will survive but thats about it.
I'm thinking that collector gold coin spending in 2008 could be a lot more than twice what it was in 2005. Interest in gold is spiking as the price moves higher, and the premiums for the collector based one-ounce coins and four-coin sets are typically not exorbitant. Many people find it more convenient, and not that much more expensive, to buy uncirculated and proof gold eagles and buffalos from the Mint rather than from dealers. The buffalo "celebration coin" currently at $1,018.88 is an example. The Dolley Madison uncirculated half ounce at $510 is another. Major dealers are charging only slightly less for generic eagles, and actually more if shipping is factored in.
Unless the spreads widen between Mint prices and bullion values, I expect that the popularity of collector gold coins will rise because of the combined numismatic and bullion-related features they offer.
<< <i>Lets assume that collector gold coin spending in 08 will be twice what it was in 2005. $95 million / $14,000 = 6,700 coins. The bottom line is mintages are going to hit the floor in 08 for gold. All the old keys are going to be overtaken. Maybe the 99-w gold eagles and Jackie will survive but thats about it.
I'm thinking that collector gold coin spending in 2008 could be a lot more than twice what it was in 2005. Interest in gold is spiking as the price moves higher, and the premiums for the collector based one-ounce coins and four-coin sets are typically not exorbitant. Many people find it more convenient, and not that much more expensive, to buy uncirculated and proof gold eagles and buffalos from the Mint rather than from dealers. The buffalo "celebration coin" currently at $1,018.88 is an example. The Dolley Madison uncirculated half ounce at $510 is another. Major dealers are charging only slightly less for generic eagles, and actually more if shipping is factored in.
Unless the spreads widen between Mint prices and bullion values, I expect that the popularity of collector gold coins will rise because of the combined numismatic and bullion-related features they offer. >>
Part of me agrees with you but how does that explain only 11000 or so 2007 w half oz coins sold so far with the current gold frenzy?
Very good points Eric! Speculation on moderns have become the way of life in this hobby (at least for the past few years). The question is, how many speculators will hang on and risk their investments with precious metals at these prices? In 2003, with precious metals prices rising fast, speculators started sitting on the fence (mostly afraid of a reversal in pm prices at any time). By 2004 pm prices were even higher and speculators were even more afraid of a quick price reversal. 2004 gave us great key dates in Platinum; but, as live series go, we might be looking at the next step in Platinum key date evolution in 2008 or 2009. With Platinum prices reaching a new high in 2008, God only knows what the future holds for Platinum collectors!
The good thing about 2004 Plats is this (as Eric always says!):
"The 2004s only came one way". If you need that design for your collection, then there's only one way to get it, in Proof.
Another thing that comes to mind, don't loose your sights on the little coins! With rising pm prices, the $10 and $25 Platinum Eagles may very well become the way to go for collectors on a budget (especially considering that a $25 Plat today costs almost as much as a half cost a year ago!). This is one thing I have been wondering lately: with Platinum prices soaring the way they are, will the quarter become the new half?
How many collectors can afford to keep doubling their investment in platinum almost yearly? In 2003-2005, the price of platinum was increasing - keeping the pressure on collectors. In 2006-7, the Mint decided to add to the burden by offering more and more (expensive) options, including a $500 wooden box. Now, in 2008 platinum prices are off to the races, again.
How many collectors (or speculators, for that matter) are seeing commensurate increases in their discretionary incomes, such that keeping up with the plats is even feasible, let alone advisable? Not many.
Therefore, this convergence of factors can only mean one thing for mintages in 2008. Thankfully, the classics guys never read these posts, so they will be focused on their usual trivial matters, and we won't have to worry about them poaching in our playground
Thank you Eric, for your insightful and comprehensive analysis. Well Done!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"Another thing that comes to mind, don't loose your sights on the little coins! With rising pm prices, the $10 and $25 Platinum Eagles may very well become the way to go for collectors on a budget (especially considering that a $25 Plat today costs almost as much as a half cost a year ago!). This is one thing I have been wondering lately: with Platinum prices soaring the way they are, will the quarter become the new half? >>
"
Ben, I agree the smaller gold and platinum eagles may find larger collector interest as materials go up. The gold and platinum quarters and dimes just don't hurt as bad and as you look out over the years of future mint pruchases trying to hold onto the complete set the numbers are not as daunting.
I like the halves because they are easy to see and are not as expensive as the one oz coins. I collect the quarters and halves but if materials keep going and I just can't afford it all I suspect I will be forced to stick with the quarters. It just depends on how out of hand materials get.
The thing is when all this trouble is over the set will have lower pops than the mintage charts indicate. The changing reverse plats already represent 90 percent of all the lowest design based type coins in MS and cameo proof since 1915. Whats it going to look like after the junk bag is done with them? The complete set could be VERY HARD to put together in the out years........
"Another thing that comes to mind, don't loose your sights on the little coins! With rising pm prices, the $10 and $25 Platinum Eagles may very well become the way to go for collectors on a budget (especially considering that a $25 Plat today costs almost as much as a half cost a year ago!). This is one thing I have been wondering lately: with Platinum prices soaring the way they are, will the quarter become the new half? >>
"
Ben, I agree the smaller gold and platinum eagles may find larger collector interest as materials go up. The gold and platinum quarters and dimes just don't hurt as bad and as you look out over the years of future mint pruchases trying to hold onto the complete set the numbers are not as daunting.
I like the halves because they are easy to see and are not as expensive as the one oz coins. I collect the quarters and halves but if materials keep going and I just can't afford it all I suspect I will be forced to stick with the quarters. It just depends on how out of hand materials get.
The thing is when all this trouble is over the set will have lower pops than the mintage charts indicate. The changing reverse plats already represent 90 percent of all the lowest design based type coins in MS and cameo proof since 1915. Whats it going to look like after the junk bag is done with them? The complete set could be VERY HARD to put together in the out years........
You are right Eric. Considering the already low mintages, an extended period of heightened prices (combined with melting) could be devastating to the APEs in terms of surviving pops!
One should consider not only what happens when prices are rising quickly (see above), but also what might happen if there should be a significant drop in prices. If there should be a 25% pullback in spot platinum (if the mines get power back sooner instead of later), then what happens?
The melt has taken place, and mintage numbers are now unreliable. Nobody knows what's a key, and what's not. All of the "extras" have been "thinned out" in the marketplace. Some people have decided to get rid of their 1 ozers in favor of 1/4 ozers, and so on.
As Eric notes, the whole set becomes harder and harder, as time goes on.
Additional comment - when I first decided to collect Plats, I recognized that it is an area for "heavy hitters" and that at some point, I might have to bail or scale back.
I also realized that if I did have to scale back, inevitably - the timing would be such that when I scaled back, that would be the precise year when low mintages would result in super-rarities. And of course, I would be screwed.
Realizing all of that, I plunged ahead through thick and thin - and here we are. Nothing has changed. When it hurts the most, that's when I debate whether to stay or go. Last year, I didn't buy any proofs or regular uncs, but I bought multiples of the "W" burnished.
Time will tell whether I was prescient or foolish.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>One should consider not only what happens when prices are rising quickly (see above), but also what might happen if there should be a significant drop in prices. If there should be a 25% pullback in spot platinum (if the mines get power back sooner instead of later), then what happens?
The melt has taken place, and mintage numbers are now unreliable. Nobody knows what's a key, and what's not. All of the "extras" have been "thinned out" in the marketplace. Some people have decided to get rid of their 1 ozers in favor of 1/4 ozers, and so on.
As Eric notes, the whole set becomes harder and harder, as time goes on.
Additional comment - when I first decided to collect Plats, I recognized that it is an area for "heavy hitters" and that at some point, I might have to bail or scale back.
I also realized that if I did have to scale back, inevitably - the timing would be such that when I scaled back, that would be the precise year when low mintages would result in super-rarities. And of course, I would be screwed.
Realizing all of that, I plunged ahead through thick and thin - and here we are. Nothing has changed. When it hurts the most, that's when I debate whether to stay or go. Last year, I didn't buy any proofs or regular uncs, but I bought multiples of the "W" burnished.
Time will tell whether I was prescient or foolish. >>
**********************
You are SO right. I know that I must hang in there in the "bad" years because the bad years are the good years. Nothing is new under the sun. I hate to give up on my halves because they are likely to get hit harder than the quarters and end up being the Royal Set.
Notice that the concept of the junk bag or melting pot does not bother me even though I collect moderns. Great series had at least one and frequently many troubled infancy issues. The plats have had many troubled infancy issues and that is precisely why they will be such killers in the out years.
Remember Mellencamp's song, "Hurts So Good?" Well it should be the theme song for platinum.
I've got money ready for the 2008's, but the price is taking off almost daily. Should I buy something platinum, just to go along for the ride, or should I wait?
Argh. Argh. $#&^%$*$%$#)*%#@!*)_%
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Eric, I'm curious about your prediction of the level of collector spending doubling in the past few years. This ignores all of the trouble in the market with rising energy costs and the sub-prime lending collapse that still has a long time-line left in it yet.
Are you assuming that the majority of collectors of gold and plat are not a part of the groups that will be affected by this? I think these issues can help curtail spending on "non-essentials" (for lack of a better term) such as gold and plat.
I agree that the 2004 will likely remain in strong demand, I am beginning to wonder about the 2006 w-unc issues. Given the quick rise in plat price and the factors mentioned above, I'm wondering how many people will drop out of the market, or switch to lower-cost denominations. I agree that 2600 coins is very small, but if plat continues to rise and other economic factors don't improve, the future could be very interesting.
For these reasons alone, I think I'll continue with my $50 plats (both proof and w-unc) no matter how much it hurts...
Eric
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
Ben pointed out to me last night that the grading companies have seen a recent spike in platinum submissions. It would not be surprising that people are using the grading companies to sort the plats they are keeping from the plats they are dumping/melting/throwing in the bag. Thats what I have been doing. Plats that make 70 stay. Duplicates that do not are more likely to see an open bag on the way to Kitco to be traded as junk bullion (at 2.5% back of melt but no ebay or paypal fees). Could be over time that one of the better indicators will be the combined NGC and PCGS 70 pops.
<< <i> Could be over time that one of the better indicators will be the combined NGC and PCGS 70 pops. >>
I have a YN question. People (and companies) don't usually turn in slab inserts when they crack out a coin so how can people tell how many 70's or 69's get melted or not? I know people would be dumb to melt a 70 but some people are dumb.
What Mr. Spock would say about numismatics... ... "Fascinating, but not logical"
I have a YN question. People (and companies) don't usually turn in slab inserts when they crack out a coin so how can people tell how many 70's or 69's get melted or not? I know people would be dumb to melt a 70 but some people are dumb.
You've just nailed the question that revolves around the crackout game when it comes to populations of graded & slabbed coins. This phenomenon is especially pronounced in some classic coin series where crackouts have become routine.
In theory, a series could be melted down to the point where 100 coins could account for a population of 1200 graded coins. Weird, eh?
I doubt that most people would melt a 70, unless they had no takers when they tried to liquidate it and the premiums had gone to zero due to high bullion prices. We aren't there yet, but it could happen I suppose.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
In the future, plats could be the "new Morgans." Lots of them melted, and only guesstimates as to the surviving populations.
Probably long-term prices will sort out which dates are scarce and which dates largely escaped the melting pot. Of course, there may be hoards of certain dates that are dumped on the market at unpredictable times - but that's true of Morgans, too.
From my vantage point, it appears that fresh Proof platinum coins and sets have severely "dried up" over the past 12-18 months as compared to what was available a couple years ago. And, certainly not entirely due to "melting" I believe. It is simply that 17 or 18 coins in the series have mintages of around just 5,000 - 8,500 and those coins are spread all over the world. Every year, more and more coins come off the market into collectors / investors'/ hands.
On a separate note, consider something near and dear to Eric's heart. ..
A coin like the $25 or $50 Burnished 2006-W Plat has a mintage of roughly 2,600-2,700 and in perfect 70 grade the coins fetch around $1,500-$2,000 (give or take). Now, consider the Cheerios Dollar has a mintage roughly 2x this amount and the MS68 examples trade at between $15,000 - $20,000 already!! Sure, the cheerios coins are "all over the place" and I have no problem with the $20,000 price tag for a top example. But, $1,500-$2,000 for a perfect modern type coin with a scant 2,650 mintage and up to $1,050 in base metal value? What is there not to like?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>From my vantage point, it appears that fresh Proof platinum coins and sets have severely "dried up" over the past 12-18 months as compared to what was available a couple years ago. And, certainly not entirely due to "melting" I believe. It is simply that 17 or 18 coins in the series have mintages of around just 5,000 - 8,500 and those coins are spread all over the world. Every year, more and more coins come off the market into collectors / investors'/ hands.
On a separate note, consider something near and dear to Eric's heart. ..
A coin like the $25 or $50 Burnished 2006-W Plat has a mintage of roughly 2,600-2,700 and in perfect 70 grade the coins fetch around $1,500-$2,000 (give or take). Now, consider the Cheerios Dollar has a mintage roughly 2x this amount and the MS68 examples trade at between $15,000 - $20,000 already!! Sure, the cheerios coins are "all over the place" and I have no problem with the $20,000 price tag for a top example. But, $1,500-$2,000 for a perfect modern type coin with a scant 2,650 mintage and up to $1,050 in base metal value? What is there not to like?
Wondercoin >>
Very well thought out Mitch. It's true that more and more leave the market every year to collectors and it's only a matter of time. I think the reason the cheerios sac is so much is because there is a much larger collector base for the series and that is a must have variety.
A coin like the $25 or $50 Burnished 2006-W Plat has a mintage of roughly 2,600-2,700 and in perfect 70 grade the coins fetch around $1,500-$2,000 (give or take). Now, consider the Cheerios Dollar has a mintage roughly 2x this amount and the MS68 examples trade at between $15,000 - $20,000 already!! Sure, the cheerios coins are "all over the place" and I have no problem with the $20,000 price tag for a top example. But, $1,500-$2,000 for a perfect modern type coin with a scant 2,650 mintage and up to $1,050 in base metal value? What is there not to like?
I like your comparison to the Cheerios Sac, Mitch, but there are different fundamentals (that I'm sure you are aware of).
For those that haven't thought about it before, there are twice as many Cheerios Sacs out there, but many (MANY!) of them were opened by people and spent right away because no one knew that they were different/special. Thus, the number of them that exist in their original packaging is probably a VERY small fraction of the 5,500 production run. The plats, by contrast, have done directly into the hands of collectors (not the general public) and are treated very differently. Sure, some will be melted, but I think there are more of the plats around than MS Cheerios Sacs today.
However, if someone would like to offer me $20,000 for each of my 2006 w-unc $50 plats, please PM me
I do agree the finding "original" plats is becoming more difficult. I still need a few from the early years - I'm glad I started with the more scarce dates!
Eric
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
<< <i>Eric, I'm curious about your prediction of the level of collector spending doubling in the past few years. This ignores all of the trouble in the market with rising energy costs and the sub-prime lending collapse that still has a long time-line left in it yet.
Are you assuming that the majority of collectors of gold and plat are not a part of the groups that will be affected by this? I think these issues can help curtail spending on "non-essentials" (for lack of a better term) such as gold and plat.
I agree that the 2004 will likely remain in strong demand, I am beginning to wonder about the 2006 w-unc issues. Given the quick rise in plat price and the factors mentioned above, I'm wondering how many people will drop out of the market, or switch to lower-cost denominations. I agree that 2600 coins is very small, but if plat continues to rise and other economic factors don't improve, the future could be very interesting.
For these reasons alone, I think I'll continue with my $50 plats (both proof and w-unc) no matter how much it hurts...
Eric >>
***********
I do not think the spending will double. That was an "even if" statement to show that there is SO much gold coming out of the mint this year that there is no way the mintages can't crash.
<< <i>From my vantage point, it appears that fresh Proof platinum coins and sets have severely "dried up" over the past 12-18 months as compared to what was available a couple years ago. And, certainly not entirely due to "melting" I believe. It is simply that 17 or 18 coins in the series have mintages of around just 5,000 - 8,500 and those coins are spread all over the world. Every year, more and more coins come off the market into collectors / investors'/ hands.
On a separate note, consider something near and dear to Eric's heart. ..
A coin like the $25 or $50 Burnished 2006-W Plat has a mintage of roughly 2,600-2,700 and in perfect 70 grade the coins fetch around $1,500-$2,000 (give or take). Now, consider the Cheerios Dollar has a mintage roughly 2x this amount and the MS68 examples trade at between $15,000 - $20,000 already!! Sure, the cheerios coins are "all over the place" and I have no problem with the $20,000 price tag for a top example. But, $1,500-$2,000 for a perfect modern type coin with a scant 2,650 mintage and up to $1,050 in base metal value? What is there not to like?
Cheerios dollars = higher demand and "cache" value on the market, therefore higher price. Ridiculous to some of us but the truth none the less.
I think if everybody dumps the 69s and under of recent plats that the 69s will be less common eventually than the 70s and will not serve to buoy the higher graded coins and the hoopla over 69 vs. 70 in micrograding moderns may well die down.
I do hope that people melt the cra- out of the burnished die Ws of the last two years and drive the total surviving numbers down.
The crazy price of gold and platinum is definately giving me pause even though I have tried to keep up with them each year, and 1 oz. bullion chunks are just that, bullion, now and have SUPER low demand as collector bits. I wonder who bought the majority of the 7k 1 oz. bullion plats struck for '07?
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
I do not think the spending will double. That was an "even if" statement to show that there is SO much gold coming out of the mint this year that there is no way the mintages can't crash.
This one observation should be worth a lot, and I mean a lot - of money.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I agree that the intense discussion of 69 versus 70 may well disappear and price difference will eventually shrink, since often those grades are rather arbitrary to begin with. I have also noticed fewer "fresh" proof plats appear on the market and am curious what's going on. Perhaps people are finally realizing that the plats are more attractive in OGP than in slabs? Or maybe, dare I say it, the collector base really is growing? Whichever, I think there will be some big surprises on which dates eventually turn out to be key. I know I've been looking for one particular date in OGP that is proving very elusive--and shouldn't be hard to get.
I have also noticed fewer "fresh" proof plats appear on the market and am curious what's going on. Perhaps people are finally realizing that the plats are more attractive in OGP than in slabs? Or maybe, dare I say it, the collector base really is growing?
It appears to me that alot of new investors, not collectors - are soaking up the extras, the 69's, the ungraded coins, etc. If you look back at 1997 and 1998, the volume of Plats sold by the Mint was much larger than compared to now. It stands to reason that investors were present at the launch of the program and now, attracted by the stories of nice profits - they are returning.
Whether or not they ultimately become collectors is anybody's guess. I bought my first Platinum Eagles in '98, but I didn't become a collector until about '03. The difference between now and 1997 is that there is a recognition of inflation and a commodity boom is in process. The dollar is crashing and big money is looking for alternatives. The California Retirement State Retirement Fund, CALPERS announced yesterday that they will be buying into commodities in order to bolster returns. That's just the beginning, IMO.
If I were familiar with this market (which I am), I wouldn't even sell my "extra" Plats yet, but I would be piling as much cash into a big ol' pile, waiting for the next Mint issues to come out.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I would not be shocked if single issue OGP becomes a desirable item in time. Very few of them were issued in single box and thats the way most of us collect.....one denomination not four coin sets. collecting by four coin sets is just crazy money!
Of course, everything being said about the Cheerios Dollar is accurate. But, consider that, generally speaking, the Cheerios Dollar as a pattern coin is simply an "R-1". I have patterns in my pattern Liberty nickel collection that are "R-7" with fewer than 12 coins ever struck by the US mint about 125 years ago (not 12 coins in the top grade - that is 12 coins total mintage) that sell for less than the Cheerios (pattern) coin. So, demand is everything. Now, we just need to wait for someone (one day) to "discover" just how scarce and cool many of these Proof and MS Plats are and want to "corner the market". LOL.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>I would not be shocked if single issue OGP becomes a desirable item in time. Very few of them were issued in single box and thats the way most of us collect.....one denomination not four coin sets. collecting by four coin sets is just crazy money! >>
I was just reading something about this the other day (perhaps elsewhere in this forum) about Moy's new focus on packaging for coins because it IS a big thing in other countries and just might catch on here as well. Finding govt boxes for the $50 06 w-unc plats is not easy. 2600 of them were made, but 2000 of them were part of the 4-coin sets that are WAY beyond my reach for an annual purchase. That leaves just 600 sets of original packaging to go around...
I have OPG for all of my slabbed platinum and its going to stay that way.
Eric
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
I do not think the spending will double. That was an "even if" statement to show that there is SO much gold coming out of the mint this year that there is no way the mintages can't crash.
I suspect that the crash, if any, will be limited to the one-ounce and half-ounce coins. A lot of demand will probably shift to the tenth-ounce and quarter-ounce coins.
The First Spouses might take a hit (except for the "Liberty" issues), but I anticipate that the fractional buffalos will be wildly popular.
If the Mint keeps prices at a reasonable markup to bullion prices, I expect that many people will buy the collector coins for the dual purpose of enhancing their collections and contributing to their bullion stash.
I just don't see overall demand crashing for the Mint's gold products, even if the economy continues to tank.
"I suspect that the crash, if any, will be limited to the one-ounce and half-ounce coins. A lot of demand will probably shift to the tenth-ounce and quarter-ounce coins."
I agree.
******************** "The First Spouses might take a hit (except for the "Liberty" issues), but I anticipate that the fractional buffalos will be wildly popular."
I agree
********************** "I just don't see overall demand crashing for the Mint's gold products"
I agree but the mintage of each option could take a serious beating and still have very high sales in terms of dollars and respectable total units sold (much of what is sold will be fractional Indians more than likely).
Gold eagle bullion, gold eagle "w" and first spouse gold more than likey will see new keys.
<< <i>I would not be shocked if single issue OGP becomes a desirable item in time. Very few of them were issued in single box and thats the way most of us collect.....one denomination not four coin sets. collecting by four coin sets is just crazy money! >>
I agree you don't see platinum very often in the original packaging anyplace.....
As for the 06-W coins, I have never even seen one of these coins in person.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
A few threads back we had a discussion on the possibility of people using TPGs to sort the keepers from the losers given the recent high price bullion situation we are experiencing. This weekend, I was working on sales numbers for Uncirculated 2006W and 2007W Platinum Eagles and I realized how little material graded MS69 by PCGS or NGC has been sold on eBay this last quarter. Considering that some big dealers have stayed out of Platinum these last few weeks since Platinum prices have been going crazy it stands to reason, where are the MS69s going? And, where are they been traded? We already know most dealers are staying out and we know that very few are being sold on the bay!
A few threads back we had a discussion on the possibility of people using TPGs to sort the keepers from the losers given the recent high price bullion situation we are experiencing. This weekend, I was working on sales numbers for Uncirculated 2006W and 2007W Platinum Eagles and I realized how little material graded MS69 by PCGS or NGC has been sold on eBay this last quarter. Considering that some big dealers have stayed out of Platinum these last few weeks since Platinum prices have been going crazy it stands to reason, where are the MS69s going? And, where are they been traded? We already know most dealers are staying out and we know that very few are being sold on the bay!
Food for thought! >>
I suspect they are being directly sold to Kitco.
2.5% back of melt nets a much larger price than one recieves after paypal and ebay takes their cut. Someone can sell a raw or ms69 2006-W plat to kitco for $2135 net. no fees, no nothing. Heck they aren't even fetching bids that high on the bay and then when you factor in your 8+% ebay fees. Its a no brainer. If you need to sell, sell to Kitco.
Thants what I am doing. If I need to sell some plats I pick out the good ones & send them to PCGS. If they do not make it its off to kitco along with the coins that were not worth submitting for 2.5% back of melt. Kitco is the highest offer going for 69 graded plats no contest. They are put in raw bags and rolles then sent back out as non-numismatic bullion coins to investors. The coins are damaged in the process.
This is not a maybe this is happening to these very rare coins. I know for a fact 2006-w $100, 2007-w $100 and 2007-w halves (what were 69) plats are being dumped there.
Think of this........ all the 2007-w presidental platinum quarters that were struck can be stacked on the typical 12" x 12" night stand and be only 1" deap. How much abuse can populations that small stand and not be rare?
The platinum play is occurring but due to Mint purchase changes this year, it was not as easy to raise the required cash to make the minimum purchase. Couple that with the rising price of platinum and the 2008 non-W unc's might have the lowest mintage yet. We've already seen these MS70s as being some of the lowest in the plats.
This is not a maybe this is happening to these very rare coins. I know for a fact 2006-w $100, 2007-w $100 and 2007-w halves (what were 69) plats are being dumped there.
If 2006-W $100 one-ounce burnished plats are being sent to bullionland, it could overturn the rarity rankings in the near future.
The fractional 2006-W burnished plats have enough premium, at least at the moment, to escape the melting pot. The $100 has a reported mintage of slightly less than 3100. The $50 and $25 have mintages of less than 2700. If 400 or more of the $100 coins are melted, this denomination could wind up being the rarest in the set.
This is one time I'm glad I don't own a bunch of 2004-proof plats, as they could be unseated as keys. Nobody in their right mind would melt an '04, so their pops are going to stay the same. Probably the same for '05s. Maybe the '03s or '06s will be the new keys.
Two years ago 2004 Platinum Proof Eagles were the rarest modern coin in more than 75 years. Today, it seems like everything we know or knew to be true then has become numismatic quicksand at best. 2006 brought the W Uncirculated Platinum Eagles and their amazingly low mintages. Today, with incredibly high bullion prices and new mint restrictions, 2007 dated W Uncirculated Platinum Eagles face a limited future:
1. Either they make it into a PCGS or NGC MS70 slab and sell for a little more than melt... 2. Make PCGS or NGC MS69 and risk spending eternity in a bullion bag... 3. Make PCGS or NGC MS69 and risk meeting the "Melting Pot".
Since the meltdown started, a few here have already narrated their tales about sending their slab rejects to meet the smelter. Others have simply used the TPGs as a sorting facility to figure out what they are keeping and what they are sending to Kitco. Let's face it, these high bullion price days have turned our collecting panorama upside down. We don't know that 2004 might make it out of this one untouched; nor we know if the $100s are being excessively melted and may become the king set of modern coins. A few things are very possible right now:
1. 2008 dated bullion might set a new record low. 2. 2008 dated Changing Reverse Proof Eagles might see their lowest mintage yet. 3. As bullion prices continue to rise, the mintage of 2007 dated W Uncirculated Platinum Eagles with Changing Reverse might be melted beyond recognition. 4. 2008 W Uncirculated Platinum Eagles with Changing Reverse might become the new bullion.
Another thing comes to mind, when did the meltdown start for Platinum Eagles? By 2003, 1997 and 1998 dated coins had doubled their original price. Platinum Eagles are a "good way for collectors/investors to put Platinum in their investment portfolios"; but, knowing that APEs have been selling for little more than just bullion in MS/PR 69 for years, do we know that collectors/investors have been the only ones buying them. Platinum has always had great industrial demand. The existing situation in Africa only accentuates what has been an issue for years now, the demand for Platinum has been higher than the resources available above ground for a while.
I see nothing to suggest 04 Proof Plats will do anything other than continue to be the keys to the Proof Plat series - if not all Platinum coins for some time to come. On top of that, my buy price today is HIGHER for 2004 Proof Platinum than it was a year ago this time even factoring in the possible "great melt of 07/08" and the possible low mintage 2008 coins to come.
One additional comment about 2003 Proof Plat sets - I also was a huge fan of this date (and still am). I have been buying them, non-stop, for many years (and selling some as well). But, what is very strange is the number of 2003 Proof Plat sets on the market today. I have received more 2003 Proof Plat sets in the past 2-3 months than ANY other dated Proof Plat set! Explanation? Possibly that collectors and dealers held back this date as a slightly better date and now that Platinum has exploded in value, this date has lost its "premium" entirely. Hence, out they come.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Comments
2007 PROOF PLATS
9,268
5,845+ ANN SETS
5,824
7,387
2007 "W" PLATS
4,425
3,930
3,900
5,783
2007 "W" GOLD
19,466
11,046
12,130
21,469
2007 "W" SILVER
563,771
<< <i>WEEKLY SALES REPORT FEB 26 2008
2007 PROOF PLATS
9,268
5,845+ ANN SETS
5,824
7,387
2007 "W" PLATS
4,425
3,930
3,900
5,783
2007 "W" GOLD
19,466
11,046
12,130
21,469
2007 "W" SILVER
563,771 >>
Thanks Eric , any inside news on how long the 07W gold will be on sale or when the 08W are due to be released. It almost looks like the 06 w gold may still hold up as far as mintages go
Gold:
In 2005 with a strong economy in place the mint was offering 4 gold collector coins all proof gold eagles. To buy all of them cost $1260. The public spent about 47 million dollars on gold collector coins in 2005. In 2008 the mint has slated a grand total of 24+ gold eagles with purchase price of about 14,000. This includes 4 unc and 4 proof first spouse, 4 proof eagles, 4 "w" eagles, 4 proof buff, 4 unc buff etc.
Lets assume that collector gold coin spending in 08 will be twice what it was in 2005. $95 million / $14,000 = 6,700 coins. The bottom line is mintages are going to hit the floor in 08 for gold. All the old keys are going to be overtaken. Maybe the 99-w gold eagles and Jackie will survive but thats about it.
Platinum: WILL THE 2004 SURVIVE AS KING?
I have been looking for good data points that tell me what the elasticity of demand is for platinum eagles with the changing reverse. The best example I can think of is the 2002-2004 period. There was little flipper activity in that period to throw off the base line demand and prices were on the way up in a big way. The 2002 plat quarters and halves had mintages of about 9,000 coins. In 2003 prices went up 45 % and mintages dropped about 25 %. In 2004 price went up another 25 % and mintages fell another 25%. That an 80 % price spike in two years and a 45 percent sales drop to go with it.
2007 platinum sales are still a mess so lets look at 2006. Material prices were about $1250 and the halves and quarters sold about 7700 coins each. Lets assume material is $2200 in mid 2008 thats a 75 % price increase. ASSUMING the relationships are something close to reality 7600x.55= 4250+ halves and quarters. Now speculators may jump in and bump the sales up to 5000 + coins but it begs the question will the 2004 half and quarter survive as king?
If the proof platinum mintages stay over 5000 then obviously 2004 should be OK provided melting/mishandling of 2007 proofs isn't too pronounced. But what if 08 or 09 come in with mintages in the mid 4000s will that be doom for 04? The answer is "maybe but maybe not............
Ten years out some will collect the plats in cameo proof series. Some will collect by changing reverse "w" in series.
Some will collect by design. Notice that the 04 is in the cross roads of the collector base runs. If you collect Unc "w" plats from 2006 to 2015 you may wish to pick up the designs in the only way you can get them in the early years...proof. If you collect proof obviously you will need the 04 and 05.
This is a listing of the total number of changing reverse plat halves by design in proof or unc.
1997....150,000+ Sun-combined
1998....14,000.... Coast
1999....11,000.... Swamp
2000....11,000.... Farm
2001....8,200..... Desert
2002....8,800..... Lake
2003....7,100..... Patriotic Vig
2004....5,000..... Seated America
2005....6,000..... Plenty
2006....10,200.... Legislative-combined
2007....11,000.... Presidential-combined
2008....7,250..... Legislative-combined- If prices are up 25 % over 07 then mintages may fall to very roughly 4000x.75= 3500+
There is a reason I think this could be important. We have many classic examples of series that are collected by proof and MS sets. In those cases where any issue was issued only as a proof the proof price spikes well beyond what the coin should bring based on relative rarity in the proof series.
Examples of this are:
1831 1/2 cent
1877 3 cent nickle
1878 3 cent nickle
1886 3 cent nickle
1877 V nickle
1878 V nickle
1873 2 cent copper
1863 quarter Eagle
1875 Eagle
1887 Double Eagle
1887 Half Eagle
1875 $3 Gold
1876 $3 Gold
If you look through the coins listed you will notice that in general the coins are not great a relative rarity in their proof series but they carry 2-5 times that price of the typical proof. This is a direct result of the over lapping of the unc and proof collector base. I have little doubt that this will show up in the plats too the question is to what extent. This is hard to see at this juncture.
Will finish later.
Ericj96
Always a thought provoking response
Lets assume that collector gold coin spending in 08 will be twice what it was in 2005. $95 million / $14,000 = 6,700 coins. The bottom line is mintages are going to hit the floor in 08 for gold. All the old keys are going to be overtaken. Maybe the 99-w gold eagles and Jackie will survive but thats about it.
I'm thinking that collector gold coin spending in 2008 could be a lot more than twice what it was in 2005. Interest in gold is spiking as the price moves higher, and the premiums for the collector based one-ounce coins and four-coin sets are typically not exorbitant. Many people find it more convenient, and not that much more expensive, to buy uncirculated and proof gold eagles and buffalos from the Mint rather than from dealers. The buffalo "celebration coin" currently at $1,018.88 is an example. The Dolley Madison uncirculated half ounce at $510 is another. Major dealers are charging only slightly less for generic eagles, and actually more if shipping is factored in.
Unless the spreads widen between Mint prices and bullion values, I expect that the popularity of collector gold coins will rise because of the combined numismatic and bullion-related features they offer.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Lets assume that collector gold coin spending in 08 will be twice what it was in 2005. $95 million / $14,000 = 6,700 coins. The bottom line is mintages are going to hit the floor in 08 for gold. All the old keys are going to be overtaken. Maybe the 99-w gold eagles and Jackie will survive but thats about it.
I'm thinking that collector gold coin spending in 2008 could be a lot more than twice what it was in 2005. Interest in gold is spiking as the price moves higher, and the premiums for the collector based one-ounce coins and four-coin sets are typically not exorbitant. Many people find it more convenient, and not that much more expensive, to buy uncirculated and proof gold eagles and buffalos from the Mint rather than from dealers. The buffalo "celebration coin" currently at $1,018.88 is an example. The Dolley Madison uncirculated half ounce at $510 is another. Major dealers are charging only slightly less for generic eagles, and actually more if shipping is factored in.
Unless the spreads widen between Mint prices and bullion values, I expect that the popularity of collector gold coins will rise because of the combined numismatic and bullion-related features they offer. >>
Part of me agrees with you but how does that explain only 11000 or so 2007 w half oz coins sold so far with the current gold frenzy?
The good thing about 2004 Plats is this (as Eric always says!):
"The 2004s only came one way". If you need that design for your collection, then there's only one way to get it, in Proof.
Another thing that comes to mind, don't loose your sights on the little coins! With rising pm prices, the $10 and $25 Platinum Eagles may very well become the way to go for collectors on a budget (especially considering that a $25 Plat today costs almost as much as a half cost a year ago!). This is one thing I have been wondering lately: with Platinum prices soaring the way they are, will the quarter become the new half?
How many collectors (or speculators, for that matter) are seeing commensurate increases in their discretionary incomes, such that keeping up with the plats is even feasible, let alone advisable? Not many.
Therefore, this convergence of factors can only mean one thing for mintages in 2008. Thankfully, the classics guys never read these posts, so they will be focused on their usual trivial matters, and we won't have to worry about them poaching in our playground
Thank you Eric, for your insightful and comprehensive analysis. Well Done!
I knew it would happen.
"Another thing that comes to mind, don't loose your sights on the little coins! With rising pm prices, the $10 and $25 Platinum Eagles may very well become the way to go for collectors on a budget (especially considering that a $25 Plat today costs almost as much as a half cost a year ago!). This is one thing I have been wondering lately: with Platinum prices soaring the way they are, will the quarter become the new half? >>
"
Ben, I agree the smaller gold and platinum eagles may find larger collector interest as materials go up. The gold and platinum quarters and dimes just don't hurt as bad and as you look out over the years of future mint pruchases trying to hold onto the complete set the numbers are not as daunting.
I like the halves because they are easy to see and are not as expensive as the one oz coins. I collect the quarters and halves but if materials keep going and I just can't afford it all I suspect I will be forced to stick with the quarters. It just depends on how out of hand materials get.
The thing is when all this trouble is over the set will have lower pops than the mintage charts indicate. The changing reverse plats already represent 90 percent of all the lowest design based type coins in MS and cameo proof since 1915. Whats it going to look like after the junk bag is done with them? The complete set could be VERY HARD to put together in the out years........
Ericj96
"Another thing that comes to mind, don't loose your sights on the little coins! With rising pm prices, the $10 and $25 Platinum Eagles may very well become the way to go for collectors on a budget (especially considering that a $25 Plat today costs almost as much as a half cost a year ago!). This is one thing I have been wondering lately: with Platinum prices soaring the way they are, will the quarter become the new half? >>
"
Ben, I agree the smaller gold and platinum eagles may find larger collector interest as materials go up. The gold and platinum quarters and dimes just don't hurt as bad and as you look out over the years of future mint pruchases trying to hold onto the complete set the numbers are not as daunting.
I like the halves because they are easy to see and are not as expensive as the one oz coins. I collect the quarters and halves but if materials keep going and I just can't afford it all I suspect I will be forced to stick with the quarters. It just depends on how out of hand materials get.
The thing is when all this trouble is over the set will have lower pops than the mintage charts indicate. The changing reverse plats already represent 90 percent of all the lowest design based type coins in MS and cameo proof since 1915. Whats it going to look like after the junk bag is done with them? The complete set could be VERY HARD to put together in the out years........
Ericj96
The melt has taken place, and mintage numbers are now unreliable. Nobody knows what's a key, and what's not. All of the "extras" have been "thinned out" in the marketplace. Some people have decided to get rid of their 1 ozers in favor of 1/4 ozers, and so on.
As Eric notes, the whole set becomes harder and harder, as time goes on.
Additional comment - when I first decided to collect Plats, I recognized that it is an area for "heavy hitters" and that at some point, I might have to bail or scale back.
I also realized that if I did have to scale back, inevitably - the timing would be such that when I scaled back, that would be the precise year when low mintages would result in super-rarities. And of course, I would be screwed.
Realizing all of that, I plunged ahead through thick and thin - and here we are. Nothing has changed. When it hurts the most, that's when I debate whether to stay or go. Last year, I didn't buy any proofs or regular uncs, but I bought multiples of the "W" burnished.
Time will tell whether I was prescient or foolish.
I knew it would happen.
Figured the 2008 could be a low low mintage.....
Oh course it was the 1/10 oz, for $226.....
There was actually a few platinum coins at the show which was surprising to see.....
Asked him about platinum and he mentioned he bought his typical handful for the few that want them and that will be it for the year.....
<< <i>One should consider not only what happens when prices are rising quickly (see above), but also what might happen if there should be a significant drop in prices. If there should be a 25% pullback in spot platinum (if the mines get power back sooner instead of later), then what happens?
The melt has taken place, and mintage numbers are now unreliable. Nobody knows what's a key, and what's not. All of the "extras" have been "thinned out" in the marketplace. Some people have decided to get rid of their 1 ozers in favor of 1/4 ozers, and so on.
As Eric notes, the whole set becomes harder and harder, as time goes on.
Additional comment - when I first decided to collect Plats, I recognized that it is an area for "heavy hitters" and that at some point, I might have to bail or scale back.
I also realized that if I did have to scale back, inevitably - the timing would be such that when I scaled back, that would be the precise year when low mintages would result in super-rarities. And of course, I would be screwed.
Realizing all of that, I plunged ahead through thick and thin - and here we are. Nothing has changed. When it hurts the most, that's when I debate whether to stay or go. Last year, I didn't buy any proofs or regular uncs, but I bought multiples of the "W" burnished.
Time will tell whether I was prescient or foolish. >>
**********************
You are SO right. I know that I must hang in there in the "bad" years because the bad years are the good years. Nothing is new under the sun. I hate to give up on my halves because they are likely to get hit harder than the quarters and end up being the Royal Set.
Notice that the concept of the junk bag or melting pot does not bother me even though I collect moderns. Great series had at least one and frequently many troubled infancy issues. The plats have had many troubled infancy issues and that is precisely why they will be such killers in the out years.
This set has all the ingredients to be a real winner!
I've got money ready for the 2008's, but the price is taking off almost daily. Should I buy something platinum, just to go along for the ride, or should I wait?
Argh. Argh. $#&^%$*$%$#)*%#@!*)_%
I knew it would happen.
Are you assuming that the majority of collectors of gold and plat are not a part of the groups that will be affected by this? I think these issues can help curtail spending on "non-essentials" (for lack of a better term) such as gold and plat.
I agree that the 2004 will likely remain in strong demand, I am beginning to wonder about the 2006 w-unc issues. Given the quick rise in plat price and the factors mentioned above, I'm wondering how many people will drop out of the market, or switch to lower-cost denominations. I agree that 2600 coins is very small, but if plat continues to rise and other economic factors don't improve, the future could be very interesting.
For these reasons alone, I think I'll continue with my $50 plats (both proof and w-unc) no matter how much it hurts...
Eric
Ericj96
<< <i> Could be over time that one of the better indicators will be the combined NGC and PCGS 70 pops.
>>
I have a YN question. People (and companies) don't usually turn in slab inserts when they crack out a coin so how can people tell how many 70's or 69's get melted or not? I know people would be dumb to melt a 70 but some people are dumb.
"Live long and prosper"
My "How I Started" columns
You've just nailed the question that revolves around the crackout game when it comes to populations of graded & slabbed coins. This phenomenon is especially pronounced in some classic coin series where crackouts have become routine.
In theory, a series could be melted down to the point where 100 coins could account for a population of 1200 graded coins. Weird, eh?
I doubt that most people would melt a 70, unless they had no takers when they tried to liquidate it and the premiums had gone to zero due to high bullion prices. We aren't there yet, but it could happen I suppose.
I knew it would happen.
In the future, plats could be the "new Morgans." Lots of them melted, and only guesstimates as to the surviving populations.
Probably long-term prices will sort out which dates are scarce and which dates largely escaped the melting pot. Of course, there may be hoards of certain dates that are dumped on the market at unpredictable times - but that's true of Morgans, too.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
On a separate note, consider something near and dear to Eric's heart. ..
A coin like the $25 or $50 Burnished 2006-W Plat has a mintage of roughly 2,600-2,700 and in perfect 70 grade the coins fetch around $1,500-$2,000 (give or take). Now, consider the Cheerios Dollar has a mintage roughly 2x this amount and the MS68 examples trade at between $15,000 - $20,000 already!! Sure, the cheerios coins are "all over the place" and I have no problem with the $20,000 price tag for a top example. But, $1,500-$2,000 for a perfect modern type coin with a scant 2,650 mintage and up to $1,050 in base metal value? What is there not to like?
Wondercoin
<< <i>From my vantage point, it appears that fresh Proof platinum coins and sets have severely "dried up" over the past 12-18 months as compared to what was available a couple years ago. And, certainly not entirely due to "melting" I believe. It is simply that 17 or 18 coins in the series have mintages of around just 5,000 - 8,500 and those coins are spread all over the world. Every year, more and more coins come off the market into collectors / investors'/ hands.
On a separate note, consider something near and dear to Eric's heart. ..
A coin like the $25 or $50 Burnished 2006-W Plat has a mintage of roughly 2,600-2,700 and in perfect 70 grade the coins fetch around $1,500-$2,000 (give or take). Now, consider the Cheerios Dollar has a mintage roughly 2x this amount and the MS68 examples trade at between $15,000 - $20,000 already!! Sure, the cheerios coins are "all over the place" and I have no problem with the $20,000 price tag for a top example. But, $1,500-$2,000 for a perfect modern type coin with a scant 2,650 mintage and up to $1,050 in base metal value? What is there not to like?
Wondercoin >>
Very well thought out Mitch. It's true that more and more leave the market every year to collectors and it's only a matter of time. I think the reason the cheerios sac is so much is because there is a much larger collector base for the series and that is a must have variety.
Wondercoin
For those that haven't thought about it before, there are twice as many Cheerios Sacs out there, but many (MANY!) of them were opened by people and spent right away because no one knew that they were different/special. Thus, the number of them that exist in their original packaging is probably a VERY small fraction of the 5,500 production run. The plats, by contrast, have done directly into the hands of collectors (not the general public) and are treated very differently. Sure, some will be melted, but I think there are more of the plats around than MS Cheerios Sacs today.
However, if someone would like to offer me $20,000 for each of my 2006 w-unc $50 plats, please PM me
I do agree the finding "original" plats is becoming more difficult. I still need a few from the early years - I'm glad I started with the more scarce dates!
Eric
Figured the 2008 could be a low low mintage.....
Oh course it was the 1/10 oz, for $226.....
Ahem, Raven..........where did you get that coin for such a reasonable price?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Eric, I'm curious about your prediction of the level of collector spending doubling in the past few years. This ignores all of the trouble in the market with rising energy costs and the sub-prime lending collapse that still has a long time-line left in it yet.
Are you assuming that the majority of collectors of gold and plat are not a part of the groups that will be affected by this? I think these issues can help curtail spending on "non-essentials" (for lack of a better term) such as gold and plat.
I agree that the 2004 will likely remain in strong demand, I am beginning to wonder about the 2006 w-unc issues. Given the quick rise in plat price and the factors mentioned above, I'm wondering how many people will drop out of the market, or switch to lower-cost denominations. I agree that 2600 coins is very small, but if plat continues to rise and other economic factors don't improve, the future could be very interesting.
For these reasons alone, I think I'll continue with my $50 plats (both proof and w-unc) no matter how much it hurts...
Eric >>
***********
I do not think the spending will double. That was an "even if" statement to show that there is SO much gold coming out of the mint this year that there is no way the mintages can't crash.
<< <i>From my vantage point, it appears that fresh Proof platinum coins and sets have severely "dried up" over the past 12-18 months as compared to what was available a couple years ago. And, certainly not entirely due to "melting" I believe. It is simply that 17 or 18 coins in the series have mintages of around just 5,000 - 8,500 and those coins are spread all over the world. Every year, more and more coins come off the market into collectors / investors'/ hands.
On a separate note, consider something near and dear to Eric's heart. ..
A coin like the $25 or $50 Burnished 2006-W Plat has a mintage of roughly 2,600-2,700 and in perfect 70 grade the coins fetch around $1,500-$2,000 (give or take). Now, consider the Cheerios Dollar has a mintage roughly 2x this amount and the MS68 examples trade at between $15,000 - $20,000 already!! Sure, the cheerios coins are "all over the place" and I have no problem with the $20,000 price tag for a top example. But, $1,500-$2,000 for a perfect modern type coin with a scant 2,650 mintage and up to $1,050 in base metal value? What is there not to like?
*******
Good to hear from you Mitch.
EricJ
I think if everybody dumps the 69s and under of recent plats that the 69s will be less common eventually than the 70s and will not serve to buoy the higher graded coins and the hoopla over 69 vs. 70 in micrograding moderns may well die down.
I do hope that people melt the cra- out of the burnished die Ws of the last two years and drive the total surviving numbers down.
The crazy price of gold and platinum is definately giving me pause even though I have tried to keep up with them each year, and 1 oz. bullion chunks are just that, bullion, now and have SUPER low demand as collector bits. I wonder who bought the majority of the 7k 1 oz. bullion plats struck for '07?
Well, just Love coins, period.
This one observation should be worth a lot, and I mean a lot - of money.
I knew it would happen.
Thanks for all the great discussion everyone!
It appears to me that alot of new investors, not collectors - are soaking up the extras, the 69's, the ungraded coins, etc. If you look back at 1997 and 1998, the volume of Plats sold by the Mint was much larger than compared to now. It stands to reason that investors were present at the launch of the program and now, attracted by the stories of nice profits - they are returning.
Whether or not they ultimately become collectors is anybody's guess. I bought my first Platinum Eagles in '98, but I didn't become a collector until about '03. The difference between now and 1997 is that there is a recognition of inflation and a commodity boom is in process. The dollar is crashing and big money is looking for alternatives. The California Retirement State Retirement Fund, CALPERS announced yesterday that they will be buying into commodities in order to bolster returns. That's just the beginning, IMO.
If I were familiar with this market (which I am
I knew it would happen.
Wondercoin
<< <i>I would not be shocked if single issue OGP becomes a desirable item in time. Very few of them were issued in single box and thats the way most of us collect.....one denomination not four coin sets. collecting by four coin sets is just crazy money! >>
I was just reading something about this the other day (perhaps elsewhere in this forum) about Moy's new focus on packaging for coins because it IS a big thing in other countries and just might catch on here as well. Finding govt boxes for the $50 06 w-unc plats is not easy. 2600 of them were made, but 2000 of them were part of the 4-coin sets that are WAY beyond my reach for an annual purchase. That leaves just 600 sets of original packaging to go around...
I have OPG for all of my slabbed platinum and its going to stay that way.
Eric
I do not think the spending will double. That was an "even if" statement to show that there is SO much gold coming out of the mint this year that there is no way the mintages can't crash.
I suspect that the crash, if any, will be limited to the one-ounce and half-ounce coins. A lot of demand will probably shift to the tenth-ounce and quarter-ounce coins.
The First Spouses might take a hit (except for the "Liberty" issues), but I anticipate that the fractional buffalos will be wildly popular.
If the Mint keeps prices at a reasonable markup to bullion prices, I expect that many people will buy the collector coins for the dual purpose of enhancing their collections and contributing to their bullion stash.
I just don't see overall demand crashing for the Mint's gold products, even if the economy continues to tank.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I agree.
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"The First Spouses might take a hit (except for the "Liberty" issues), but I anticipate that the fractional buffalos will be wildly popular."
I agree
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"I just don't see overall demand crashing for the Mint's gold products"
I agree but the mintage of each option could take a serious beating and still have very high sales in terms of dollars and respectable total units sold (much of what is sold will be fractional Indians more than likely).
Gold eagle bullion, gold eagle "w" and first spouse gold more than likey will see new keys.
<< <i>I actually picked up my first platinum bullion coin over the weekend.....
Figured the 2008 could be a low low mintage.....
Oh course it was the 1/10 oz, for $226.....
Ahem, Raven..........where did you get that coin for such a reasonable price?
I picked it up at a show that it went to last weekend. The dealer had a few 1/10, 1/4 & 1/2 oz coins he was selling.....
I liked the price of that coin alot.....
<< <i>I would not be shocked if single issue OGP becomes a desirable item in time. Very few of them were issued in single box and thats the way most of us collect.....one denomination not four coin sets. collecting by four coin sets is just crazy money! >>
I agree you don't see platinum very often in the original packaging anyplace.....
As for the 06-W coins, I have never even seen one of these coins in person.....
A few threads back we had a discussion on the possibility of people using TPGs to sort the keepers from the losers given the recent high price bullion situation we are experiencing. This weekend, I was working on sales numbers for Uncirculated 2006W and 2007W Platinum Eagles and I realized how little material graded MS69 by PCGS or NGC has been sold on eBay this last quarter. Considering that some big dealers have stayed out of Platinum these last few weeks since Platinum prices have been going crazy it stands to reason, where are the MS69s going? And, where are they been traded? We already know most dealers are staying out and we know that very few are being sold on the bay!
Food for thought!
<< <i>2008 Meltdown:
A few threads back we had a discussion on the possibility of people using TPGs to sort the keepers from the losers given the recent high price bullion situation we are experiencing. This weekend, I was working on sales numbers for Uncirculated 2006W and 2007W Platinum Eagles and I realized how little material graded MS69 by PCGS or NGC has been sold on eBay this last quarter. Considering that some big dealers have stayed out of Platinum these last few weeks since Platinum prices have been going crazy it stands to reason, where are the MS69s going? And, where are they been traded? We already know most dealers are staying out and we know that very few are being sold on the bay!
Food for thought! >>
I suspect they are being directly sold to Kitco.
2.5% back of melt nets a much larger price than one recieves after paypal and ebay takes their cut. Someone can sell a raw or ms69 2006-W plat to kitco for $2135 net. no fees, no nothing. Heck they aren't even fetching bids that high on the bay and then when you factor in your 8+% ebay fees. Its a no brainer. If you need to sell, sell to Kitco.
Thants what I am doing. If I need to sell some plats I pick out the good ones & send them to PCGS. If they do not make it its off to kitco along with the coins that were not worth submitting for 2.5% back of melt. Kitco is the highest offer going for 69 graded plats no contest. They are put in raw bags and rolles then sent back out as non-numismatic bullion coins to investors. The coins are damaged in the process.
This is not a maybe this is happening to these very rare coins. I know for a fact 2006-w $100, 2007-w $100 and 2007-w halves (what were 69) plats are being dumped there.
Think of this........ all the 2007-w presidental platinum quarters that were struck can be stacked on the typical 12" x 12" night stand and be only 1" deap. How much abuse can populations that small stand and not be rare?
Ericj96
This is not a maybe this is happening to these very rare coins. I know for a fact 2006-w $100, 2007-w $100 and 2007-w halves (what were 69) plats are being dumped there.
If 2006-W $100 one-ounce burnished plats are being sent to bullionland, it could overturn the rarity rankings in the near future.
The fractional 2006-W burnished plats have enough premium, at least at the moment, to escape the melting pot. The $100 has a reported mintage of slightly less than 3100. The $50 and $25 have mintages of less than 2700. If 400 or more of the $100 coins are melted, this denomination could wind up being the rarest in the set.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
1. Either they make it into a PCGS or NGC MS70 slab and sell for a little more than melt...
2. Make PCGS or NGC MS69 and risk spending eternity in a bullion bag...
3. Make PCGS or NGC MS69 and risk meeting the "Melting Pot".
Since the meltdown started, a few here have already narrated their tales about sending their slab rejects to meet the smelter. Others have simply used the TPGs as a sorting facility to figure out what they are keeping and what they are sending to Kitco. Let's face it, these high bullion price days have turned our collecting panorama upside down. We don't know that 2004 might make it out of this one untouched; nor we know if the $100s are being excessively melted and may become the king set of modern coins. A few things are very possible right now:
1. 2008 dated bullion might set a new record low.
2. 2008 dated Changing Reverse Proof Eagles might see their lowest mintage yet.
3. As bullion prices continue to rise, the mintage of 2007 dated W Uncirculated Platinum Eagles with Changing Reverse might be melted beyond recognition.
4. 2008 W Uncirculated Platinum Eagles with Changing Reverse might become the new bullion.
Another thing comes to mind, when did the meltdown start for Platinum Eagles? By 2003, 1997 and 1998 dated coins had doubled their original price. Platinum Eagles are a "good way for collectors/investors to put Platinum in their investment portfolios"; but, knowing that APEs have been selling for little more than just bullion in MS/PR 69 for years, do we know that collectors/investors have been the only ones buying them. Platinum has always had great industrial demand. The existing situation in Africa only accentuates what has been an issue for years now, the demand for Platinum has been higher than the resources available above ground for a while.
I see nothing to suggest 04 Proof Plats will do anything other than continue to be the keys to the Proof Plat series - if not all Platinum coins for some time to come. On top of that, my buy price today is HIGHER for 2004 Proof Platinum than it was a year ago this time even factoring in the possible "great melt of 07/08" and the possible low mintage 2008 coins to come.
One additional comment about 2003 Proof Plat sets - I also was a huge fan of this date (and still am). I have been buying them, non-stop, for many years (and selling some as well). But, what is very strange is the number of 2003 Proof Plat sets on the market today. I have received more 2003 Proof Plat sets in the past 2-3 months than ANY other dated Proof Plat set! Explanation? Possibly that collectors and dealers held back this date as a slightly better date and now that Platinum has exploded in value, this date has lost its "premium" entirely. Hence, out they come.
Wondercoin