This is what I'm trying to figure out...Is the total for silver w's 563,771???? or is it 563,771 plus whatever?? I would think total mintage would be TOTAL mintage which would INCLUDE the dollar sets
<< <i>Congratulations on your 800 post, ericj96. >>
Thanks
Eric
PS: Kitco says they have been getting loads of modern eagles in for bullion trades in the last month. Its so heavy that thier turn around times are slipping. Only time will tell how much this has helped us.
Who or what is manipulating the market at this point? If the conditions are the same in the South African mines how can platinum be losing so much ground? Is it a correction or is it being manipulated, along with gold and silver, by the govenment(s)? Are we at the top of the hill of the roller coaster and getting ready for a swift drop before climbing again or is this a normal sequence? The dollar certainly isn't getting any stronger
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
I don't have any solid answers for your questions, rons, but I'll speculate about the falling price of platinum.
1) this has been a HUGE run-up in price. History shows that when this happens, things come back down fairly soon. I wouldn't be surprised to see platinum return to $1400-1600 in the next few months.
2) the run-up seems to be associated with the power problem in South Africa mines. This power problem will eventually be ironed out to one degree or another. When it does, the prices will stabilize and likely retreat a bit.
3) the run-up seems to be caused by fears of a shortage of plat in the market (see #2 above). Perhaps we've been seeing a panic buying to insure that organizations have the resources that they need in order to conduct business over the next few months and not have to worry about any shortages of platinum. When organizations are satisfied that they have "enough" stock, the rampant purchasing will subside and prices will stabilize and likely retreat.
Each of the above factors will tend to reduce the price in the next 6-8 months (I'm guess on all of them).
Then there is the falling dollar. This generally sends the prices of commodities up, but its effect is limited to times of economic downturn. China is becoming industrialized, this will send the prices of commodities up - this effect is more enduring than all of the factors mentioned before.
Overall, I predict a price drop over the rest of the year to reasonable levels, but prices will still be higher than they were in the middle of 2007. This will hold for a brief while, and then begin a more steady increase over the following years.
All of this is conjecture on my part, however.
Eric
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
The new legislation HR 5614 producing ultra high relief $20 gold & palladium eagles with the classic reverse is full of very important points.
1) The mint thinks correctly that an ultra high relief $20 gold eagle would be a very hot seller. No question they are correct.
2) The mint is showing a preference for .999 fine products now. The new eagle will be .999 fine. They want to sell not just to domestic .9 fine buyers but also grow their foreign sales trade that has little respect for impure gold. Other than previously existing $5 gold commems and the old gold eagle program .9 gold is clearly yesterdays product.
3) The legislation states flatly that " platinum coinage has become too expensive for the average investor". This is the first clear statement I have seen indicating that the top governmental decision makers (Castle was the state quarters chief sponsor and one of if not the most important congressional leader in mint programing) are starting to look for alternatives to platinum.
GOLD So what happens when the high relief $20 pure gold Saint has sales that are on fire and stay on fire. Add to that the fractional pure gold buffalo coming this year. Its fairly obvious to me that the 90% gold eagles in the next 2 years are going to be cannibalized in a very serious way. The mint has gone from a grand total of 8 gold coin offerings in 2005 costing about $2500 to at least 30 issues costing about $20,000 by 2009. Guys mintages on the gold eagles in going to crash. The obvious will show up and the mint will need to reduce its product line. The gold eagles with the family of eagles on the back may be a dead in the next few years. How would that impact the gold eagle series?
I don't know about you guys but closing a series so the cash outlay is not open ended suits me fine.
Platinum What if the palladium eagle is a hit? Will it pull sales from the changing reverse plats? May well. If mintages fall from the already crazy low numbers that are currently showing up what will the mint do if it wants to get the cost of its offerings down? Stop the platinum eagles is my guess.
Now from what I understand the 2008 platinum eagles will be produced. With roughly 20,000 oz of platinum currently in the mints inventory I have little doubt the they would like to sell 08s. But what about 2009 or 2010? The legislation says the palladium High relief Saints may be put off until 2010 depending on what goes on with the gold issue. If the palladium issue is put off until 2010 would that indicate that a 2009 platinum eagle is very likely? If they start off with the first year of the "Preamble " series does that indicate they will carry on though 2015 as proposed? I think 2009 will be the year to watch.
Any comment guys?
*I think the mint is going .999 fine gold and if its not .999 fine its likely on the way out.
*Castle has said in legislation platinum is too expensive and is sponsoring palladium coinage.
* If platinum sales falter and palladium sells well the plats could be on the way out too sometime after 2008.
*Would you be shocked if we end up with twin proof platinum eagle keys the 04 and 08? Right before the series closes? Would closing the series help it or hurt it from a long term collector perspective?
How many coins need to be issued to make for a decent set? These sets stand out as respected set and subsets..... $2.5 gold Indians have a total coin count of 15pcs. Peace dollars 25 coins. Trade dollars 15 coins Silver war nickels 14 coins.
Westward Journey nickels 4 coins.....and they don't display much set or subset strength like the fifty states quarters do so I think that 4 coins is too few to get much set traction.
The plats are right on the verge of being large enough to survive as a set. The rational type count would be at least:
1997 Reverse Proof -Eagle over the sun 1997 Proof -Eagle over the sun 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Proof -Presidential 2007 Presidential -reverse proof 2008
Thats 14 coins with proof aspects from a type perspective............and would the market consider the three "w" 2006-2008 coins to be a separate set or the 15th, 16th and 17th members of the overall type set above? Three coins is more than likely not enough to stand on its own from what I can see.
Highly unlikely that anything will trump 2004 Proof Plats - I know of people "lining up" to buy Proof 2008 Plats in the quest to produce perfect "70" coins. The Mint quality has been spectacular over the past couple years - meaning - there will likely be a high "70" rate on 08 Proof Plats - meaning plenty of perfect sets will be hoarded right from the outset. Distribution is the key - the 04 is so darn scarce because 5,000 sets are spread over the entire world! Unlike 06-W sets which (believe it or not) are plentiful right now and in the hands of a much smaller group of "investors" just waiting for the tide to turn to flip the hoards of 06-W Burnished coins. Longer term, these 06-W burnished look great to me, but, short term, plenty of product available, unlike 04 Proof Plat sets with 2x the mintage and 3-5x the difficulty to locate right now IMHO.
So, I believe distribution on 2008 Proofs will be like 06-W burnished -plenty of product in the hands of a few folks - and 2004 will continue to be the "king" of the series.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
You may be right about 2008 proof plats. Everyone I know is saying the 08s will be rare and are saving money to buy them at all cost. If they do show up to buy the 2004 will endure. I do expect from a design perspective the seated woman will be rarer than the legislative coins because they will come two ways (MS AND proof) not just proof.
The bill authorizing palladium coins first has to pass both houses of Congress and be signed by the President. I don't think it's a done deal yet.
Palladium is much cheaper than platinum and less than half the price of gold, but I don't think the Saint-Gaudens design will look nearly as good in palladium as in gold. The palladium version may not be a hot seller even if it's offered at a much lower price than the gold version.
Palladium has not really "caught on" as a coinage metal, and it may not in the future. Continuing the platinum series beyond 2008 may make sense, at least for the smaller sizes and denominations.
I don't think the gold buffaloes, fractional or otherwise, will necessarily replace the Gold Eagle series. There's a market for both, and collectors can choose between them (or collect both as types). I expect that demand for gold coins in general will increase as the dollar continues to implode.
If platinum coinage is discontinued after 2008, I think it will help the popularity of the series. But if the cost of platinum continues to soar, any increased popularity may not have much effect on the price of scarce platinum coins.
The bill authorizing palladium coins first has to pass both houses of Congress and be signed by the President. I don't think it's a done deal yet.
TRUE
Palladium is much cheaper than platinum and less than half the price of gold, but I don't think the Saint-Gaudens design will look nearly as good in palladium as in gold.
I AGREE
The palladium version may not be a hot seller even if it's offered at a much lower price than the gold version.
COULD BE
Palladium has not really "caught on" as a coinage metal, and it may not in the future. Continuing the platinum series beyond 2008 may make sense, at least for the smaller sizes and denominations.
WOULD THEY DROP THE BIG COINS AND KEEP THE LITTLE ONES?
I don't think the gold buffaloes, fractional or otherwise, will necessarily replace the Gold Eagle series. There's a market for both, and collectors can choose between them (or collect both as types). I expect that demand for gold coins in general will increase as the dollar continues to implode.
HOW MANY DIFFERENT GOLD COINS CAN THEY SELL AND HAVE THE SALES NUMBERS STAY UP? HOW MANY YEARS IS LONG ENOUGH FOR A SERIES?
If platinum coinage is discontinued after 2008, I think it will help the popularity of the series.
I AGREE
But if the cost of platinum continues to soar, any increased popularity may not have much effect on the price of scarce platinum coins.
I AGREE IN THE RELATIVELY SHORT RUN
Thanks Overdate,
Thats the kind of constructive counter points we need.
I don't have a crystal ball but I want to talk about what COULD be.....
The caps are just to make my reply clear in the midst of your statements.
Highly unlikely that anything will trump 2004 Proof Plats - I know of people "lining up" to buy Proof 2008 Plats in the quest to produce perfect "70" coins. The Mint quality has been spectacular over the past couple years - meaning - there will likely be a high "70" rate on 08 Proof Plats - meaning plenty of perfect sets will be hoarded right from the outset. Distribution is the key - the 04 is so darn scarce because 5,000 sets are spread over the entire world! Unlike 06-W sets which (believe it or not) are plentiful right now and in the hands of a much smaller group of "investors" just waiting for the tide to turn to flip the hoards of 06-W Burnished coins. Longer term, these 06-W burnished look great to me, but, short term, plenty of product available, unlike 04 Proof Plat sets with 2x the mintage and 3-5x the difficulty to locate right now IMHO.
So, I believe distribution on 2008 Proofs will be like 06-W burnished -plenty of product in the hands of a few folks - and 2004 will continue to be the "king" of the series.
Wondercoin >>
I tend to agree that the 06w has been "hoarded" and we are starting to see their prices loosen up on Ebay,(and lots of cheaper "buy it nows "not even attracting bids) My concern for the 2004W is this years melt . There is a good possibility that 2005W or even 2003 w proofs are the new keys and we would have no way to verify survival numbers. I know that this has already been discussed but it may be generations before they realize their true potential based on "appearances at auction". I am a hoard the keys kind of guy and I have no idea where this series is going.
WOULD THEY DROP THE BIG COINS AND KEEP THE LITTLE ONES?
Maybe, if sales of the big platinum coins fell off a cliff. If bullion prices go up sufficiently, demand would probably shift in a big way to the tenth-ounce and quarter-ounce coins. At some point, supply would have to follow. An early indication of this possibility is last year's 10th anniversary set, which broke symmetry with the gold and silver sets by having two coins instead of three, and half-ounce coins instead of one-ounce coins.
HOW MANY DIFFERENT GOLD COINS CAN THEY SELL AND HAVE THE SALES NUMBERS STAY UP? HOW MANY YEARS IS LONG ENOUGH FOR A SERIES?
Canada has an extensive product line of coins, and the market for U.S. coins is much bigger. I don't think we're approaching saturation yet. As long as reasonable demand for a series exists, the Mint will probably keep it alive. The Gold Eagle and the Gold Buffalo are bullion coins, and bullion demand could keep both series going indefinitely. First Spouse mintages may fall off, but this series is legislatively mandated and will continue regardless of demand. The attraction of potential rarities will probably keep mintages from falling too low, as in the Jackie Robinson commem.
For most people, it is too costly to collect every coin the Mint produces each year. But it is still possible for collectors to specialize in one or more particular series, much as we do with past and present series of coins minted for circulation.
The bill authorizing palladium coins first has to pass both houses of Congress and be signed by the President. I don't think it's a done deal yet.
Palladium is much cheaper than platinum and less than half the price of gold, but I don't think the Saint-Gaudens design will look nearly as good in palladium as in gold. The palladium version may not be a hot seller even if it's offered at a much lower price than the gold version.
Palladium has not really "caught on" as a coinage metal, and it may not in the future. Continuing the platinum series beyond 2008 may make sense, at least for the smaller sizes and denominations.
Isn't palladium production more concentrated in Russia? As I recall, one of the reasons that palladium was pulled from consideration by the automotive industry as an alternative for platinum was due to the price spike which resulted from Russia's price manipulation of the palladium market after the car manufacturers started making committments to change over to palladium. I think that any use of palladium for coinage would be subject to the same issue, and therefore is not necessarily a good idea.
I don't think the gold buffaloes, fractional or otherwise, will necessarily replace the Gold Eagle series. There's a market for both, and collectors can choose between them (or collect both as types). I expect that demand for gold coins in general will increase as the dollar continues to implode.
I agree that as the dollar implodes, demand will (probably) increase for both AGEs and all denominations of gold Buffs. This may be great for the general public as a means to evade inflation, and it might even increase collector demand while simultaneously distributing collector purchases among many more options. I think that the net result will be declining mintages of AGEs, and if the price of gold continues to increase, collector premiums will continue to be eroded.
Continuing the platinum series beyond 2008 may make sense, at least for the smaller sizes and denominations.....
....If platinum coinage is discontinued after 2008, I think it will help the popularity of the series. But if the cost of platinum continues to soar, any increased popularity may not have much effect on the price of scarce platinum coins.
I think that the collector premiums for Plats will be re-established after the platinum market has a chance to stabilize. The current problem is that nobody knows what price is needed to stabilize the market.
If platinum prices stay high or continue higher, I expect to see significant destruction of Platinum Eagles over time. When the dust settles, especially if the APE Program is discontinued or scaled back, I think that an accounting process will begin for all of the remaining Plats.
I was interested to learn recently that such a process is ongoing in the Large Cent arena, which involves detailed cataloging and photos for the major Large Cent holdings. With Plats, this might be harder to accomplish, so there may be more uncertainty in establishing relative scarcity data and numismatic values in the Plat Series for some time to come.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Joflax - IMHO, virtually no 05 Proof plats have been melted and very few 03 coins. These sets will not challenge the 04. I have active buys on 03, 04, 05 Proof Plats daily. I buy plenty of 03 and 05 coins - virtually every week, sometimes nearly every day or two. I am now buying 04 coins maybe once or twice a month even though I often post the highest dealer buy in the country. This is just a guess - if someone wanted (25) fresh 2004 Proof plat sets and wanted them fairly quickly (say 30 days) - I suspect they would need to raise bid to something approaching $10,000.00 - $12,000/set to have a shot at getting them. Think about that!!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>Joflax - IMHO, virtually no 05 Proof plats have been melted and very few 03 coins. These sets will not challenge the 04. I have active buys on 03, 04, 05 Proof Plats daily. I buy plenty of 03 and 05 coins - virtually every week, sometimes nearly every day or two. I am now buying 04 coins maybe once or twice a month even though I often post the highest dealer buy in the country. This is just a guess - if someone wanted (25) fresh 2004 Proof plat sets and wanted them fairly quickly (say 30 days) - I suspect they would need to raise bid to something approaching $10,000.00 - $12,000/set to have a shot at getting them. Think about that!!
Wondercoin >>
I wouldnt dream of selling my 2004s but was tempted to lighten up on my 03s and 05s along with the common dates when platinum was barreling along...I paid mint prices and below at the time of purchase, and 300% profit in 3-4 years would have been sweet if I had somewhere smarter to put the dollars.
Interesting developments - thanks for the report, EricJ! I was beginning to wonder how long high priced products that only sell 4,000-6,000 units would last...
I was thinking that Buffalos alone would kill off the Gold Eagle series, especially after fractionals were introduced. Throwing a high-relief gold into the mix will certainly be the death blow of the more traditional 90% eagles. I suspect that all three coins will be issued (gold eagle, gold buffalo, high-relief) and then the 90% gold eagle will go away the following year. This last year could easily become the new key date.
I suspect the same would happen with the platinum series as palladium is introduced. I would be nice, though, (which means it probably won't happen) if the switch in metals took place between the themes of the current short sets. Say, at the end of the "Pillars of democracy" in 2008 and before the start of the "preamble" coins in 2009. This would be much nicer than beginning the preamble set (if one is going to happen at all) with a one year platinum issue and then changing the composition to palladium for the remainder of the run.
An interesting question is would a series made of palladium have a larger or smaller collector base than the platinums? The exotic, esoteric, etc appeal of the platinum series would be gone and I think this would undermine the interest in a metal change for this series. Since palladium is worth less than gold, the denomination would likely be of lower value. I wonder how this would impact demand?
Eric
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
<< <i>Joflax - IMHO, virtually no 05 Proof plats have been melted and very few 03 coins. These sets will not challenge the 04. I have active buys on 03, 04, 05 Proof Plats daily. I buy plenty of 03 and 05 coins - virtually every week, sometimes nearly every day or two. I am now buying 04 coins maybe once or twice a month even though I often post the highest dealer buy in the country. This is just a guess - if someone wanted (25) fresh 2004 Proof plat sets and wanted them fairly quickly (say 30 days) - I suspect they would need to raise bid to something approaching $10,000.00 - $12,000/set to have a shot at getting them. Think about that!!
Wondercoin >>
Wondercoin,
I always appreciate your observations. Thank you.
It's interesting to me that despite the '04's low mintage, there are always plenty for sale on eBay. Any observations on the 2000-2002 coins from a dealer perspective? Some of these seem to come up less often, despite much higher mintages. One thing that strikes me is that the designs of the '98-2002 are so much prettier than the later ones. Could that be an influence?
<< <i>Interesting developments - thanks for the report, EricJ! I was beginning to wonder how long high priced products that only sell 4,000-6,000 units would last...
I was thinking that Buffalos alone would kill off the Gold Eagle series, especially after fractionals were introduced. Throwing a high-relief gold into the mix will certainly be the death blow of the more traditional 90% eagles. I suspect that all three coins will be issued (gold eagle, gold buffalo, high-relief) and then the 90% gold eagle will go away the following year. This last year could easily become the new key date.
I suspect the same would happen with the platinum series as palladium is introduced. I would be nice, though, (which means it probably won't happen) if the switch in metals took place between the themes of the current short sets. Say, at the end of the "Pillars of democracy" in 2008 and before the start of the "preamble" coins in 2009. This would be much nicer than beginning the preamble set (if one is going to happen at all) with a one year platinum issue and then changing the composition to palladium for the remainder of the run.
An interesting question is would a series made of palladium have a larger or smaller collector base than the platinums? The exotic, esoteric, etc appeal of the platinum series would be gone and I think this would undermine the interest in a metal change for this series. Since palladium is worth less than gold, the denomination would likely be of lower value. I wonder how this would impact demand?
Eric >>
I thought the new high relief was a one year deal? If they do it right I'm a buyer for multiple years, being double thick the devices are just amazing and make the old eagle look like crap. Which I always thought it did anyway.
"Any observations on the 2000-2002 coins from a dealer perspective?"
Yes - I buy those particular coins at 1%-2% back of spot depending upon the denomination/year (as does a few other dealers). But, if you tried to sell them on ebay or sell them on Teletrade, you would face fees of roughly 6% (ebay/paypal)-12% (teletrade buyer's preminum, not to mention a smaller seller's premium). So, take a 2001 Proof $100 Plat @ $1,875/oz. on the metal spot. I would buy the coin right now @ $1,850 - no mess, no fuss. But, to net $1,850 on ebay, you would need to sell the coin for about $1,950+. Not easily done. And, the coin would have to sell for about $2,050+ on Teletrade to net that (and seller needs to wait about 37 days for sale to "clear" the TT system vs. next day check selling it off to a dealer). IMHO, this explains, to a great extent, why you are seeing so few 1997-2002 Proof Plats appearing for sale these past 3-6 months. It has nothing to do with them "drying up" I believe.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Is the high relief Saint design they are coming out with next year replacing the Buffalo coins? I think they should just stop with the Gold Eagles and stick to one design..... We don't really need all these different gold coins.....
A one year proof only high relief saint is that what we are talking about?
As far as platinum continuing don't stop in the middle of a run of series. if you replaced platinum with pladium I think a number of the platinum collectors would collect pladium instead of platinum, but if you had both running at the same time, you would likely split the potential collector base.....
I am surprised that Congress would think that platinum is to expensive for investors? Just drop the 1 oz coins if that is the case.
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
An interesting question is would a series made of palladium have a larger or smaller collector base than the platinums? The exotic, esoteric, etc appeal of the platinum series would be gone and I think this would undermine the interest in a metal change for this series. Since palladium is worth less than gold, the denomination would likely be of lower value. I wonder how this would impact demand?
If they drop platinum in favor of paladium, I sincerely might be inclined to simply focus on the platinum series and to leave the paladium to others.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>"Any observations on the 2000-2002 coins from a dealer perspective?"
Yes - I buy those particular coins at 1%-2% back of spot depending upon the denomination/year (as does a few other dealers). But, if you tried to sell them on ebay or sell them on Teletrade, you would face fees of roughly 6% (ebay/paypal)-12% (teletrade buyer's preminum, not to mention a smaller seller's premium). So, take a 2001 Proof $100 Plat @ $1,875/oz. on the metal spot. I would buy the coin right now @ $1,850 - no mess, no fuss. But, to net $1,850 on ebay, you would need to sell the coin for about $1,950+. Not easily done. And, the coin would have to sell for about $2,050+ on Teletrade to net that (and seller needs to wait about 37 days for sale to "clear" the TT system vs. next day check selling it off to a dealer). IMHO, this explains, to a great extent, why you are seeing so few 1997-2002 Proof Plats appearing for sale these past 3-6 months. It has nothing to do with them "drying up" I believe.
Wondercoin >>
Thanks, Wondercoin! I hadn't thought of that at all, but it makes perfect sense.
It's interesting to me that despite the '04's low mintage, there are always plenty for sale on eBay.
I haven't noticed many '04 proofs for sale on ebay in actual auctions until perhaps the past month or so. Usually, except for a minimum bid entry or two, the '04s are never offered. Lately, it's true that a few have been shaken loose.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I haven't heard the details about the high-relief. Is this to be a 1-year only issue? In my thinking above, I wrote it up as if this would be a new and continuing series - I don't know that this is the case...
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
Regarding 2004 Proof Plats - I did see a few items out on ebay over the past several weeks and, overall, the couple items that did sell pulled very strong money (nothing I could compete to buy). For example, my highest published bid in the country on the $100 2004-W Proof Plat resulted in a "plus" on the 3/21/08 CDN to $2,600 bid (and $2,750 ask). The ebay coin sold on a best offer for $3,400! A couple of the $25 coins were also offered out there for 25%+ over sheet. Surprisingly, a $50 coin did sell right at the CDN bid (so that seller actually lost money after fees rather than just selling the coin at bid to a dealer). You will see that the $50 was sold on open bid rather than the fixed price route the $100 coin sold at. Open bid auctions are generally yielding below average levels IMHO right now on these Eagle coins.
At the monent, there are very few 04 proofs available for sale on the bay.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>GOLD So what happens when the high relief $20 pure gold Saint has sales that are on fire and stay on fire. Add to that the fractional pure gold buffalo coming this year. Its fairly obvious to me that the 90% gold eagles in the next 2 years are going to be cannibalized in a very serious way. The mint has gone from a grand total of 8 gold coin offerings in 2005 costing about $2500 to at least 30 issues costing about $20,000 by 2009. Guys mintages on the gold eagles in going to crash. The obvious will show up and the mint will need to reduce its product line. The gold eagles with the family of eagles on the back may be a dead in the next few years. How would that impact the gold eagle series? >>
The longevity of the AGE series will depend on whether Congress allows the alternate products to be included in IRAs or only allows AGEs.
I wanted to offer some comments on the questions that Eric asked.
I think that the US Mint is beginning to offer too many coin options. The amount of money needed to purchase all the issues has become more than most collectors can spend. Also, the US Mint service seems to be lagging with more coin issues and their overly friendly policy of 30 day returns. We have all experienced the poor website response time on initial days of new offerings.
There will be probably be some low mintage rarities as collectors are bored or confused, similar to the late 1990's with some many commemoratives.
I personally don't like the palladium coins. I used to own the Tonga Palladium set and the finish was very dull and not as attractive as gold and silver. But I guess it will be more affordable since Platinum has increased so much in price over the past few years.
I will have to focus my collecting activities on the coins that I think that I will enjoy - the fractional buffaloes and the platinum quarters and halves.
I wouldn't mind if they killed platinum after 2008. I like the 3 coin series for 2006-2008, and am not sure that there's much reason to continue with it beyond that. When the program started, platinum was $400 an ounce. Demand has been falling as bullion increased.
I think the Mint should consider terminating the series, or at least killing the $100. I don't know what the impact on collectibility will be, but I don't think it will hurt things any.
At $2,000/oz, the acquisition cost for a new collector looking for a raw four coin proof set from 1997-2008, with a small premium for keys, is around $50,000. The 2006-2008 w uncirculated coins adds $13,000 or so to that price.
Other than a couple of keys, the platinums haven't shown much numismatic premium even at $1,400 an ounce.
If the Mint terminates the program, the group of people who currently budget $3,000++ a year for the latest 4 coin proof set (double that to include the w uncirculated set), might have an incentive to start working backwards to 1997.
If the Mint doesn't end the program, I fear we will just limp along, never knowing if the keys will hold, and always wondering about the surviving population of the rest.
Of course, I'm looking at this from the perspective of a set collector --for those who are content to stick to fractionals, the price tag isn't as scary. The Mint could also consider killing the $100 coin, and just going with the $10-$50 from here on out.
A shame, because the $100 coins are great, but at $2000+ a pop, they are just too darn expensive for most of us to collect (1997 to 2008 in PF69 = about $28,000+ and another $6,000+ for the 2006-2008 w in MS69).
I always hear talk about if you purchase everything from the mint it costs, X dollars.....How many people actually do that?
It's a good point. I certainly don't collect everything the Mint produces, and pick and choose among offerings. With respect to platinums, I've always been a set buyer from the Mint, but acquisition costs are getting too high. In 2008, depending on the bullion price, we could easily expect a $4,000+ pricetag on a 4 coin set. Will I pay that? yes, I suppose I will. But we're approaching (if we haven't already reached) the point where there is little room for numismatic value. The annual holding cost of buying a set for $4,000 is $200 a year at 5% simple interest (more if you compound). Platinum has been doing great lately, so it hasn't been an issue. But if that changes, as it very well could, that $4,000 is better spent paying down an interest-bearing debt rather than sitting on a shelf.
Granted, that's not a collector way of looking at it, but the way I see it, when I was a kid pulling pennies from circulation, I was a collector. When I write a check for $4,000, I might be doing so as a collector, but I'd be foolish not to think of it from an investment perspective as well.
I think that for the mint it would make sense to kill the platinum coins, but I hope they dont. These are really great coins. I'm kinda suprised they are not more sought after. All I need are 3 more coins and I'll have a complete set of proofs. Ah, maybe there time just hasn't come yet.
I hope they kill the series. Less temptation to buy. Either that or make it into a $50, $25, $10 and $5 platinum following the gold denominations. Can they make the planchets thinner to make the circumference of each coin larger. They should end the $100 Platinum.
I've been critical of the Mint for numerous reasons, but I've never suggested that they kill the whole series.
It would be much more manageable if they limited the number of platinum issues to either proofs or burnished changing reverses, and eliminate the platinum bullion program entirely.
If they make it, someone collects it - but there is no good reason why they should continue to pretend that they need 3 different platinum series. There is no synergy in the way that the Mint operates when they try to suck every last cent from every last collector.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
If they do make a radical change to platinum like dropping the 1 oz coins, I would like to see a new obverse, so those collectors with the 1 oz coins have a complete collection and not one where the series gets chopped off for them.....
I don't think there is the need or demand for a 1/20 oz platinum coin.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
<< <i>If they do make a radical change to platinum like dropping the 1 oz coins, I would like to see a new obverse, so those collectors with the 1 oz coins have a complete collection and not one where the series gets chopped off for them.....
I don't think there is the need or demand for a 1/20 oz platinum coin..... >>
How about a little vial with platinum shavings in it? The Mint could call it "Eagle Droppings", and it might be affordable to almost everyone.
Comments
<< <i>Sales report as of 3/11/2008
Gold-w Mint State
one...21,274
half...12,854
quart..12,854
tenth..22,509
Proof Platinum
9,268
5,845 + 10th ann. sets
5,824
7,667
MS-w Platinum
4,425
3,930
3,900
5,783
Silver Eagle MS-w
563,771 + multi-dollar sets >>
Eric , is that a typo that the 1/2 and 1/4 oz gold have the same mintage??
Gold-w Mint State
one...21,274
half...11,929 ...CORRECTED
quart..12,854
tenth..22,509
Proof Platinum
9,268
5,845 + 10th ann. sets
5,824
7,667
MS-w Platinum
4,425
3,930
3,900
5,783
Silver Eagle MS-w
563,771 + multi-dollar sets
Must have been huge buying since last night
<< <i> ASE's 563,771 + multi-dollar sets >>
This is what I'm trying to figure out...Is the total for silver w's 563,771???? or is it 563,771 plus whatever?? I would think total mintage would be TOTAL mintage which would INCLUDE the dollar sets
<< <i>Congratulations on your 800 post, ericj96. >>
Thanks
Eric
PS: Kitco says they have been getting loads of modern eagles in for bullion trades in the last month. Its so heavy that thier turn around times are slipping. Only time will tell how much this has helped us.
Kitco says they have been getting loads of modern eagles in for bullion trades in the last month.
Gold, silver, platinum or all three?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
1) this has been a HUGE run-up in price. History shows that when this happens, things come back down fairly soon. I wouldn't be surprised to see platinum return to $1400-1600 in the next few months.
2) the run-up seems to be associated with the power problem in South Africa mines. This power problem will eventually be ironed out to one degree or another. When it does, the prices will stabilize and likely retreat a bit.
3) the run-up seems to be caused by fears of a shortage of plat in the market (see #2 above). Perhaps we've been seeing a panic buying to insure that organizations have the resources that they need in order to conduct business over the next few months and not have to worry about any shortages of platinum. When organizations are satisfied that they have "enough" stock, the rampant purchasing will subside and prices will stabilize and likely retreat.
Each of the above factors will tend to reduce the price in the next 6-8 months (I'm guess on all of them).
Then there is the falling dollar. This generally sends the prices of commodities up, but its effect is limited to times of economic downturn. China is becoming industrialized, this will send the prices of commodities up - this effect is more enduring than all of the factors mentioned before.
Overall, I predict a price drop over the rest of the year to reasonable levels, but prices will still be higher than they were in the middle of 2007. This will hold for a brief while, and then begin a more steady increase over the following years.
All of this is conjecture on my part, however.
Eric
The European platinum exchange traded fund is becoming popular, and may cushion the fall in platinum prices.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
1) The mint thinks correctly that an ultra high relief $20 gold eagle would be a very hot seller. No question they are correct.
2) The mint is showing a preference for .999 fine products now. The new eagle will be .999 fine. They want to sell not just to domestic .9 fine buyers but also grow their foreign sales trade that has little respect for impure gold. Other than previously existing $5 gold commems and the old gold eagle program .9 gold is clearly yesterdays product.
3) The legislation states flatly that " platinum coinage has become too expensive for the average investor". This is the first clear statement I have seen indicating that the top governmental decision makers (Castle was the state quarters chief sponsor and one of if not the most important congressional leader in mint programing) are starting to look for alternatives to platinum.
GOLD
So what happens when the high relief $20 pure gold Saint has sales that are on fire and stay on fire. Add to that the fractional pure gold buffalo coming this year. Its fairly obvious to me that the 90% gold eagles in the next 2 years are going to be cannibalized in a very serious way. The mint has gone from a grand total of 8 gold coin offerings in 2005 costing about $2500 to at least 30 issues costing about $20,000 by 2009. Guys mintages on the gold eagles in going to crash. The obvious will show up and the mint will need to reduce its product line. The gold eagles with the family of eagles on the back may be a dead in the next few years. How would that impact the gold eagle series?
I don't know about you guys but closing a series so the cash outlay is not open ended suits me fine.
Platinum
What if the palladium eagle is a hit? Will it pull sales from the changing reverse plats? May well. If mintages fall from the already crazy low numbers that are currently showing up what will the mint do if it wants to get the cost of its offerings down? Stop the platinum eagles is my guess.
Now from what I understand the 2008 platinum eagles will be produced. With roughly 20,000 oz of platinum currently in the mints inventory I have little doubt the they would like to sell 08s. But what about 2009 or 2010? The legislation says the palladium High relief Saints may be put off until 2010 depending on what goes on with the gold issue. If the palladium issue is put off until 2010 would that indicate that a 2009 platinum eagle is very likely? If they start off with the first year of the "Preamble " series does that indicate they will carry on though 2015 as proposed? I think 2009 will be the year to watch.
Any comment guys?
*I think the mint is going .999 fine gold and if its not .999 fine its likely on the way out.
*Castle has said in legislation platinum is too expensive and is sponsoring palladium coinage.
* If platinum sales falter and palladium sells well the plats could be on the way out too sometime after 2008.
*Would you be shocked if we end up with twin proof platinum eagle keys the 04 and 08? Right before the series closes? Would closing the series help it or hurt it from a long term collector perspective?
How many coins need to be issued to make for a decent set? These sets stand out as respected set and subsets.....
$2.5 gold Indians have a total coin count of 15pcs.
Peace dollars 25 coins.
Trade dollars 15 coins
Silver war nickels 14 coins.
Westward Journey nickels 4 coins.....and they don't display much set or subset strength like the fifty states quarters do so I think that 4 coins is too few to get much set traction.
The plats are right on the verge of being large enough to survive as a set. The rational type count would be at least:
1997 Reverse Proof -Eagle over the sun
1997 Proof -Eagle over the sun
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 Proof -Presidential
2007 Presidential -reverse proof
2008
Thats 14 coins with proof aspects from a type perspective............and would the market consider the three "w" 2006-2008 coins to be a separate set or the 15th, 16th and 17th members of the overall type set above? Three coins is more than likely not enough to stand on its own from what I can see.
Ericj96
Highly unlikely that anything will trump 2004 Proof Plats - I know of people "lining up" to buy Proof 2008 Plats in the quest to produce perfect "70" coins. The Mint quality has been spectacular over the past couple years - meaning - there will likely be a high "70" rate on 08 Proof Plats - meaning plenty of perfect sets will be hoarded right from the outset. Distribution is the key - the 04 is so darn scarce because 5,000 sets are spread over the entire world! Unlike 06-W sets which (believe it or not) are plentiful right now and in the hands of a much smaller group of "investors" just waiting for the tide to turn to flip the hoards of 06-W Burnished coins. Longer term, these 06-W burnished look great to me, but, short term, plenty of product available, unlike 04 Proof Plat sets with 2x the mintage and 3-5x the difficulty to locate right now IMHO.
So, I believe distribution on 2008 Proofs will be like 06-W burnished -plenty of product in the hands of a few folks - and 2004 will continue to be the "king" of the series.
Wondercoin
ericj
The bill authorizing palladium coins first has to pass both houses of Congress and be signed by the President. I don't think it's a done deal yet.
Palladium is much cheaper than platinum and less than half the price of gold, but I don't think the Saint-Gaudens design will look nearly as good in palladium as in gold. The palladium version may not be a hot seller even if it's offered at a much lower price than the gold version.
Palladium has not really "caught on" as a coinage metal, and it may not in the future. Continuing the platinum series beyond 2008 may make sense, at least for the smaller sizes and denominations.
I don't think the gold buffaloes, fractional or otherwise, will necessarily replace the Gold Eagle series. There's a market for both, and collectors can choose between them (or collect both as types). I expect that demand for gold coins in general will increase as the dollar continues to implode.
If platinum coinage is discontinued after 2008, I think it will help the popularity of the series. But if the cost of platinum continues to soar, any increased popularity may not have much effect on the price of scarce platinum coins.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The bill authorizing palladium coins first has to pass both houses of Congress and be signed by the President. I don't think it's a done deal yet.
TRUE
Palladium is much cheaper than platinum and less than half the price of gold, but I don't think the Saint-Gaudens design will look nearly as good in palladium as in gold.
I AGREE
The palladium version may not be a hot seller even if it's offered at a much lower price than the gold version.
COULD BE
Palladium has not really "caught on" as a coinage metal, and it may not in the future. Continuing the platinum series beyond 2008 may make sense, at least for the smaller sizes and denominations.
WOULD THEY DROP THE BIG COINS AND KEEP THE LITTLE ONES?
I don't think the gold buffaloes, fractional or otherwise, will necessarily replace the Gold Eagle series. There's a market for both, and collectors can choose between them (or collect both as types). I expect that demand for gold coins in general will increase as the dollar continues to implode.
HOW MANY DIFFERENT GOLD COINS CAN THEY SELL AND HAVE THE SALES NUMBERS STAY UP? HOW MANY YEARS IS LONG ENOUGH FOR A SERIES?
If platinum coinage is discontinued after 2008, I think it will help the popularity of the series.
I AGREE
But if the cost of platinum continues to soar, any increased popularity may not have much effect on the price of scarce platinum coins.
I AGREE IN THE RELATIVELY SHORT RUN
Thanks Overdate,
Thats the kind of constructive counter points we need.
I don't have a crystal ball but I want to talk about what COULD be.....
The caps are just to make my reply clear in the midst of your statements.
Ericj96
<< <i>"Any comment guys?"
Highly unlikely that anything will trump 2004 Proof Plats - I know of people "lining up" to buy Proof 2008 Plats in the quest to produce perfect "70" coins. The Mint quality has been spectacular over the past couple years - meaning - there will likely be a high "70" rate on 08 Proof Plats - meaning plenty of perfect sets will be hoarded right from the outset. Distribution is the key - the 04 is so darn scarce because 5,000 sets are spread over the entire world! Unlike 06-W sets which (believe it or not) are plentiful right now and in the hands of a much smaller group of "investors" just waiting for the tide to turn to flip the hoards of 06-W Burnished coins. Longer term, these 06-W burnished look great to me, but, short term, plenty of product available, unlike 04 Proof Plat sets with 2x the mintage and 3-5x the difficulty to locate right now IMHO.
So, I believe distribution on 2008 Proofs will be like 06-W burnished -plenty of product in the hands of a few folks - and 2004 will continue to be the "king" of the series.
Wondercoin >>
I tend to agree that the 06w has been "hoarded" and we are starting to see their prices loosen up on Ebay,(and lots of cheaper "buy it nows "not even attracting bids) My concern for the 2004W is this years melt . There is a good possibility that 2005W or even 2003 w proofs are the new keys and we would have no way to verify survival numbers. I know that this has already been discussed but it may be generations before they realize their true potential based on "appearances at auction". I am a hoard the keys kind of guy and I have no idea where this series is going.
A few thoughts . . .
WOULD THEY DROP THE BIG COINS AND KEEP THE LITTLE ONES?
Maybe, if sales of the big platinum coins fell off a cliff. If bullion prices go up sufficiently, demand would probably shift in a big way to the tenth-ounce and quarter-ounce coins. At some point, supply would have to follow. An early indication of this possibility is last year's 10th anniversary set, which broke symmetry with the gold and silver sets by having two coins instead of three, and half-ounce coins instead of one-ounce coins.
HOW MANY DIFFERENT GOLD COINS CAN THEY SELL AND HAVE THE SALES NUMBERS STAY UP? HOW MANY YEARS IS LONG ENOUGH FOR A SERIES?
Canada has an extensive product line of coins, and the market for U.S. coins is much bigger. I don't think we're approaching saturation yet. As long as reasonable demand for a series exists, the Mint will probably keep it alive. The Gold Eagle and the Gold Buffalo are bullion coins, and bullion demand could keep both series going indefinitely. First Spouse mintages may fall off, but this series is legislatively mandated and will continue regardless of demand. The attraction of potential rarities will probably keep mintages from falling too low, as in the Jackie Robinson commem.
For most people, it is too costly to collect every coin the Mint produces each year. But it is still possible for collectors to specialize in one or more particular series, much as we do with past and present series of coins minted for circulation.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Palladium is much cheaper than platinum and less than half the price of gold, but I don't think the Saint-Gaudens design will look nearly as good in palladium as in gold. The palladium version may not be a hot seller even if it's offered at a much lower price than the gold version.
Palladium has not really "caught on" as a coinage metal, and it may not in the future. Continuing the platinum series beyond 2008 may make sense, at least for the smaller sizes and denominations.
Isn't palladium production more concentrated in Russia? As I recall, one of the reasons that palladium was pulled from consideration by the automotive industry as an alternative for platinum was due to the price spike which resulted from Russia's price manipulation of the palladium market after the car manufacturers started making committments to change over to palladium. I think that any use of palladium for coinage would be subject to the same issue, and therefore is not necessarily a good idea.
I don't think the gold buffaloes, fractional or otherwise, will necessarily replace the Gold Eagle series. There's a market for both, and collectors can choose between them (or collect both as types). I expect that demand for gold coins in general will increase as the dollar continues to implode.
I agree that as the dollar implodes, demand will (probably) increase for both AGEs and all denominations of gold Buffs. This may be great for the general public as a means to evade inflation, and it might even increase collector demand while simultaneously distributing collector purchases among many more options. I think that the net result will be declining mintages of AGEs, and if the price of gold continues to increase, collector premiums will continue to be eroded.
Continuing the platinum series beyond 2008 may make sense, at least for the smaller sizes and denominations.....
....If platinum coinage is discontinued after 2008, I think it will help the popularity of the series. But if the cost of platinum continues to soar, any increased popularity may not have much effect on the price of scarce platinum coins.
I think that the collector premiums for Plats will be re-established after the platinum market has a chance to stabilize. The current problem is that nobody knows what price is needed to stabilize the market.
If platinum prices stay high or continue higher, I expect to see significant destruction of Platinum Eagles over time. When the dust settles, especially if the APE Program is discontinued or scaled back, I think that an accounting process will begin for all of the remaining Plats.
I was interested to learn recently that such a process is ongoing in the Large Cent arena, which involves detailed cataloging and photos for the major Large Cent holdings. With Plats, this might be harder to accomplish, so there may be more uncertainty in establishing relative scarcity data and numismatic values in the Plat Series for some time to come.
I knew it would happen.
Wondercoin
<< <i>Joflax - IMHO, virtually no 05 Proof plats have been melted and very few 03 coins. These sets will not challenge the 04. I have active buys on 03, 04, 05 Proof Plats daily. I buy plenty of 03 and 05 coins - virtually every week, sometimes nearly every day or two. I am now buying 04 coins maybe once or twice a month even though I often post the highest dealer buy in the country. This is just a guess - if someone wanted (25) fresh 2004 Proof plat sets and wanted them fairly quickly (say 30 days) - I suspect they would need to raise bid to something approaching $10,000.00 - $12,000/set to have a shot at getting them. Think about that!!
Wondercoin >>
I wouldnt dream of selling my 2004s but was tempted to lighten up on my 03s and 05s along with the common dates when platinum was barreling along...I paid mint prices and below at the time of purchase, and 300% profit in 3-4 years would have been sweet if I had somewhere smarter to put the dollars.
I was thinking that Buffalos alone would kill off the Gold Eagle series, especially after fractionals were introduced. Throwing a high-relief gold into the mix will certainly be the death blow of the more traditional 90% eagles. I suspect that all three coins will be issued (gold eagle, gold buffalo, high-relief) and then the 90% gold eagle will go away the following year. This last year could easily become the new key date.
I suspect the same would happen with the platinum series as palladium is introduced. I would be nice, though, (which means it probably won't happen) if the switch in metals took place between the themes of the current short sets. Say, at the end of the "Pillars of democracy" in 2008 and before the start of the "preamble" coins in 2009. This would be much nicer than beginning the preamble set (if one is going to happen at all) with a one year platinum issue and then changing the composition to palladium for the remainder of the run.
An interesting question is would a series made of palladium have a larger or smaller collector base than the platinums? The exotic, esoteric, etc appeal of the platinum series would be gone and I think this would undermine the interest in a metal change for this series. Since palladium is worth less than gold, the denomination would likely be of lower value. I wonder how this would impact demand?
Eric
Thank you for your continued input!
Eric
<< <i>Joflax - IMHO, virtually no 05 Proof plats have been melted and very few 03 coins. These sets will not challenge the 04. I have active buys on 03, 04, 05 Proof Plats daily. I buy plenty of 03 and 05 coins - virtually every week, sometimes nearly every day or two. I am now buying 04 coins maybe once or twice a month even though I often post the highest dealer buy in the country. This is just a guess - if someone wanted (25) fresh 2004 Proof plat sets and wanted them fairly quickly (say 30 days) - I suspect they would need to raise bid to something approaching $10,000.00 - $12,000/set to have a shot at getting them. Think about that!!
Wondercoin >>
Wondercoin,
I always appreciate your observations. Thank you.
It's interesting to me that despite the '04's low mintage, there are always plenty for sale on eBay. Any observations on the 2000-2002 coins from a dealer perspective? Some of these seem to come up less often, despite much higher mintages. One thing that strikes me is that the designs of the '98-2002 are so much prettier than the later ones. Could that be an influence?
<< <i>Interesting developments - thanks for the report, EricJ! I was beginning to wonder how long high priced products that only sell 4,000-6,000 units would last...
I was thinking that Buffalos alone would kill off the Gold Eagle series, especially after fractionals were introduced. Throwing a high-relief gold into the mix will certainly be the death blow of the more traditional 90% eagles. I suspect that all three coins will be issued (gold eagle, gold buffalo, high-relief) and then the 90% gold eagle will go away the following year. This last year could easily become the new key date.
I suspect the same would happen with the platinum series as palladium is introduced. I would be nice, though, (which means it probably won't happen) if the switch in metals took place between the themes of the current short sets. Say, at the end of the "Pillars of democracy" in 2008 and before the start of the "preamble" coins in 2009. This would be much nicer than beginning the preamble set (if one is going to happen at all) with a one year platinum issue and then changing the composition to palladium for the remainder of the run.
An interesting question is would a series made of palladium have a larger or smaller collector base than the platinums? The exotic, esoteric, etc appeal of the platinum series would be gone and I think this would undermine the interest in a metal change for this series. Since palladium is worth less than gold, the denomination would likely be of lower value. I wonder how this would impact demand?
Eric >>
I thought the new high relief was a one year deal? If they do it right I'm a buyer for multiple years, being double thick the devices are just amazing and make the old eagle look like crap. Which I always thought it did anyway.
Yes - I buy those particular coins at 1%-2% back of spot depending upon the denomination/year (as does a few other dealers). But, if you tried to sell them on ebay or sell them on Teletrade, you would face fees of roughly 6% (ebay/paypal)-12% (teletrade buyer's preminum, not to mention a smaller seller's premium). So, take a 2001 Proof $100 Plat @ $1,875/oz. on the metal spot. I would buy the coin right now @ $1,850 - no mess, no fuss. But, to net $1,850 on ebay, you would need to sell the coin for about $1,950+. Not easily done. And, the coin would have to sell for about $2,050+ on Teletrade to net that (and seller needs to wait about 37 days for sale to "clear" the TT system vs. next day check selling it off to a dealer). IMHO, this explains, to a great extent, why you are seeing so few 1997-2002 Proof Plats appearing for sale these past 3-6 months. It has nothing to do with them "drying up" I believe.
Wondercoin
A one year proof only high relief saint is that what we are talking about?
As far as platinum continuing don't stop in the middle of a run of series. if you replaced platinum with pladium I think a number of the platinum collectors would collect pladium instead of platinum, but if you had both running at the same time, you would likely split the potential collector base.....
I am surprised that Congress would think that platinum is to expensive for investors? Just drop the 1 oz coins if that is the case.
If they drop platinum in favor of paladium, I sincerely might be inclined to simply focus on the platinum series and to leave the paladium to others.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>"Any observations on the 2000-2002 coins from a dealer perspective?"
Yes - I buy those particular coins at 1%-2% back of spot depending upon the denomination/year (as does a few other dealers). But, if you tried to sell them on ebay or sell them on Teletrade, you would face fees of roughly 6% (ebay/paypal)-12% (teletrade buyer's preminum, not to mention a smaller seller's premium). So, take a 2001 Proof $100 Plat @ $1,875/oz. on the metal spot. I would buy the coin right now @ $1,850 - no mess, no fuss. But, to net $1,850 on ebay, you would need to sell the coin for about $1,950+. Not easily done. And, the coin would have to sell for about $2,050+ on Teletrade to net that (and seller needs to wait about 37 days for sale to "clear" the TT system vs. next day check selling it off to a dealer). IMHO, this explains, to a great extent, why you are seeing so few 1997-2002 Proof Plats appearing for sale these past 3-6 months. It has nothing to do with them "drying up" I believe.
Wondercoin >>
Thanks, Wondercoin! I hadn't thought of that at all, but it makes perfect sense.
I haven't noticed many '04 proofs for sale on ebay in actual auctions until perhaps the past month or so. Usually, except for a minimum bid entry or two, the '04s are never offered. Lately, it's true that a few have been shaken loose.
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
Regarding 2004 Proof Plats - I did see a few items out on ebay over the past several weeks and, overall, the couple items that did sell pulled very strong money (nothing I could compete to buy). For example, my highest published bid in the country on the $100 2004-W Proof Plat resulted in a "plus" on the 3/21/08 CDN to $2,600 bid (and $2,750 ask). The ebay coin sold on a best offer for $3,400! A couple of the $25 coins were also offered out there for 25%+ over sheet. Surprisingly, a $50 coin did sell right at the CDN bid (so that seller actually lost money after fees rather than just selling the coin at bid to a dealer). You will see that the $50 was sold on open bid rather than the fixed price route the $100 coin sold at. Open bid auctions are generally yielding below average levels IMHO right now on these Eagle coins.
At the monent, there are very few 04 proofs available for sale on the bay.
Wondercoin
<< <i>GOLD
So what happens when the high relief $20 pure gold Saint has sales that are on fire and stay on fire. Add to that the fractional pure gold buffalo coming this year. Its fairly obvious to me that the 90% gold eagles in the next 2 years are going to be cannibalized in a very serious way. The mint has gone from a grand total of 8 gold coin offerings in 2005 costing about $2500 to at least 30 issues costing about $20,000 by 2009. Guys mintages on the gold eagles in going to crash. The obvious will show up and the mint will need to reduce its product line. The gold eagles with the family of eagles on the back may be a dead in the next few years. How would that impact the gold eagle series? >>
The longevity of the AGE series will depend on whether Congress allows the alternate products to be included in IRAs or only allows AGEs.
WH
I couldn't come up with HR 5614 when I did a search on the House website. Is this the correct number?
Try a Google search using:
hr 5614 gaudens
as the search term (no quotes).
I was thinking that Buffalos alone would kill off the Gold Eagle series, especially after fractionals were introduced.
Will the fractionals be available as bullion coins? I thought they would only be available in proof and burnished uncirculated, with the "W" mintmark.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I think that the US Mint is beginning to offer too many coin options. The amount of money needed to purchase all the issues has become more than most collectors can spend. Also, the US Mint service seems to be lagging with more coin issues and their overly friendly policy of 30 day returns. We have all experienced the poor website response time on initial days of new offerings.
There will be probably be some low mintage rarities as collectors are bored or confused, similar to the late 1990's with some many commemoratives.
I personally don't like the palladium coins. I used to own the Tonga Palladium set and the finish was very dull and not as attractive as gold and silver. But I guess it will be more affordable since Platinum has increased so much in price over the past few years.
I will have to focus my collecting activities on the coins that I think that I will enjoy - the fractional buffaloes and the platinum quarters and halves.
How many people actually do that?
They are working on killing the golden goose, but what else is new.....
I think the Mint should consider terminating the series, or at least killing the $100. I don't know what the impact on collectibility will be, but I don't think it will hurt things any.
At $2,000/oz, the acquisition cost for a new collector looking for a raw four coin proof set from 1997-2008, with a small premium for keys, is around $50,000. The 2006-2008 w uncirculated coins adds $13,000 or so to that price.
Other than a couple of keys, the platinums haven't shown much numismatic premium even at $1,400 an ounce.
If the Mint terminates the program, the group of people who currently budget $3,000++ a year for the latest 4 coin proof set (double that to include the w uncirculated set), might have an incentive to start working backwards to 1997.
If the Mint doesn't end the program, I fear we will just limp along, never knowing if the keys will hold, and always wondering about the surviving population of the rest.
Of course, I'm looking at this from the perspective of a set collector --for those who are content to stick to fractionals, the price tag isn't as scary. The Mint could also consider killing the $100 coin, and just going with the $10-$50 from here on out.
A shame, because the $100 coins are great, but at $2000+ a pop, they are just too darn expensive for most of us to collect (1997 to 2008 in PF69 = about $28,000+ and another $6,000+ for the 2006-2008 w in MS69).
It's a good point. I certainly don't collect everything the Mint produces, and pick and choose among offerings. With respect to platinums, I've always been a set buyer from the Mint, but acquisition costs are getting too high. In 2008, depending on the bullion price, we could easily expect a $4,000+ pricetag on a 4 coin set. Will I pay that? yes, I suppose I will. But we're approaching (if we haven't already reached) the point where there is little room for numismatic value. The annual holding cost of buying a set for $4,000 is $200 a year at 5% simple interest (more if you compound). Platinum has been doing great lately, so it hasn't been an issue. But if that changes, as it very well could, that $4,000 is better spent paying down an interest-bearing debt rather than sitting on a shelf.
Granted, that's not a collector way of looking at it, but the way I see it, when I was a kid pulling pennies from circulation, I was a collector. When I write a check for $4,000, I might be doing so as a collector, but I'd be foolish not to think of it from an investment perspective as well.
Box of 20
It would be much more manageable if they limited the number of platinum issues to either proofs or burnished changing reverses, and eliminate the platinum bullion program entirely.
If they make it, someone collects it - but there is no good reason why they should continue to pretend that they need 3 different platinum series. There is no synergy in the way that the Mint operates when they try to suck every last cent from every last collector.
I knew it would happen.
I don't think there is the need or demand for a 1/20 oz platinum coin.....
<< <i>If they do make a radical change to platinum like dropping the 1 oz coins, I would like to see a new obverse, so those collectors with the 1 oz coins have a complete collection and not one where the series gets chopped off for them.....
I don't think there is the need or demand for a 1/20 oz platinum coin..... >>
How about a little vial with platinum shavings in it? The Mint could call it "Eagle Droppings", and it might be affordable to almost everyone.