Note that 1915 $50 MS Pan Pac slugs were about $2200 in todays money and considered "too expensive" so only 1 out of every 200,000 citizen bought them. Now a $50 MS changing reverse platinum eagle is $1100 and only about 1 out of every 100,000 citizens purchase one. Notice the ratios are relatively stable. Expensive issues don't sell when they are infants.
I always miss this thread when it's not bouncing up at the top. Thanks for another wonderful, interesting essay. It's a great time to be collecting plats because there's so much uncertainty about them with high PM prices. 2008 is shaping up to be a great year for many issues. I expect very low mintages for all fractional gold and plat eagles, regular and 'w's. I know that for me it's a stretch to get these, so that's a good sign it's a stretch for many others, too. I also think it's a great year to pick up some spouses, if you are at all inclined. It's funny, too. I'd kind of reached the same conclusion on possible "dark horse" plats, though I'd also include '03 and '08 in the mix also. Your essay also makes me want to go look at silver commems. All in all a great piece, and I look forward to more. THANK YOU!
As usual another detailed well thought out presentation from Eric. I appreciate your thoughts and the research you do to back up your statements and prognostications. Excellent reading. Thank you for sharing your thought processes with us. Now I need to to gather some funds for more plats
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
Eric's posts are like hidden treasures on this forum. I am never disappointed, I am always educated and I am always impressed with Eric's foresight into this area of the coin market. Some how "Thanks" doesn't seem to suffice for what I glean from his posts.
<< <i> The Proof Ultra High Relief Saint with its 25,000 max mintage is going to be a killer if they don't have any follow on production in succeeding years. If you can afford one buy it. >>
I thought they were going to be unlimted mintages? When is the scheduled release date and the estimated price? thanks!
Collecting coins, medals and currency featuring "The Sower"
I know that for me it's a stretch to get these, so that's a good sign it's a stretch for many others, too.
I agree - this has been my Plat investment theme for the past several years. I know that if it's getting tough for me to come up with the money, it is most assuredly a good speculation.
As Eric notes - the disposable income issue has raised its head and will continue to do so. This only makes the low mintage possibilities even more dramatic. Having your finances in order before investing in platinum reminds me of an old saying - "if you're up to your neck in alligators, you forget that you came to drain the swamp."
Building upon Eric's observations - it is absolutely necessary to have the ability to weather financial storms independently of your platinum holdings in order to get maximum benefit from having platinum holdings! That's why the "strong hands" benefit the most - so that your stuff doesn't end up in the melting pot at exactly the wrong moment.
Nice work, Eric!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
By the way, do you see there are only 5 $50 plats on eBay right now? In 18 months of looking, this is as low as I've ever seen it. This tells me a) most of these coins are going directly to wholesalers/smelters or b) supply is dwindling or c) the temporary drop in price is seen as an unpropitious time to sell.
"The Proof Ultra High Relief Saint with its 25,000 max mintage is going to be a killer if they don't have any follow on production in succeeding years. If you can afford one buy it. "
I thought that I read in CW or NN (can't remember) that there is no mintage limit on this proposed issue. Where was the info regarding an 25K limit published?
Real disposable income in the US is down about 7 percent from last year and its showing up in coin prices for many series. This problem may haunt us for a while.
I think the economic slowdown combined with high inflation will increase the popularity of gold and silver coins, while possibly having the opposite effect on base metal coinage.
There are plenty of interesting and attractive precious metal coins (and sets) that are available at close to bullion value: circulated Roosevelt dimes and Franklin halves, modern commems, late 19th and early 20th century type gold, bullion American Eagles, etc.
These coins allow collectors a "guilt-free" way to add to their coin holdings, while at the same time building a hedge against hard times and depreciating paper money.
I thought I remember seeing that the St. Gaudens design would be unlimited as well... Capping this issue to 25,000 would be great! Eric, where did you find this new information about the limited production?
Thanks Eric
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
The key term is "proof". The mintage fro the MS coins is unlimited. The proof is 25,000 from what I read. And frankly I can't remember where I read it. I think it was coin world ......the article about coinage that just passed the House.
If materials spike hard and drive all the keys underwater the total set value growth will carry the day.
The double-edged sword!! This is what every Plat collector needs to remember. Keys are fine, and dandy - but so is a big ol' pile of platinum when prices are rising, and as long as we stay with increasing entitlements for more and more people, there is no other way for platinum to go but up.
SILVER EAGLES:
I find it very interesting that it took the Mint a full 22 years before they produced an "error" coin in this series. Perhaps after seeing the coin market's spasmodic reaction to the Prez Dollar "errors" and the recent "mules", they decided to throw in for a new Silver Eagle variety. We will never know. If 47,000 (or less) is the number - there are more Silver Eagle collectors than that, and speculators will do their part to hype any scarcity. On the flip side, there are many, many other Mint products constantly vying for collector dollars. And, the Mint might well decide that the next Silver Eagle error will only consist of 5,000-10,000 pieces. My estimate for the 8/7 Reverse - moderate appreciation. But, I also like generic Silver Eagles almost as much, just based on the silver market.
GOLD EAGLES AND THE ULTRA HIGH RELIEF SAINT
If this is a single issue with a mintage limit of 25,000 it should be a fairly decent keeper. Remember, however - that the Mint managed to turn the 2007-W Reverse Proof Platinum Eagle from an exciting concept into a bullion piece headed for the melting pot within the same year that it was made. They overproduced it in addition to deviating from the 1 oz. coins like they made the other RPs, which would have made a "killer" exhibition set.
If they make this a double thick UHR Saint as a unique commemoration to the talents of Saint Gaudens, then the coin will attain a very desirable position among the Modern issues. It could be a killer, as Eric suggests. If they overproduce it and then glomb onto the idea with fractionals as well, it will be another piece of bullion. It's really the Mint's call at this point. I plan on obtaining at least 2 or more pieces if they don't screw it up too bad.
FIRST SPOUSE GOLD
This series is just not for me, however - I am convinced that the dedicated collectors of this series will be rewarded in the long run.
In addition to the inevitable low mintage keys that will be made, this series has the very same advantages that platinum and silver have - the longterm inflationary trend will overwhelm any mistakes that could be made by investing here.
My own strategy has been to drag my feet and not buy any. At some point, I might buy an issue simply as a place to park some money in gold. My longterm estimate - a very difficult series to complete, with commensurate rewards along the way.
GOLD COMMEMS
Again, not my cup of tea, but all of my comments on the First Spouse Gold series applies here, only more so. I find Eric's comment to be very relevant: A lack of design based unity and high prices relative to their mintage will continue to a drag on price growth going forward.
Having said that, this series is unlike any other. There is no precedent series to make for comparative purposes, since the early 20th Century Commemorative Gold Issues don't really comprise much of a "series."
I see this series as being not particularly popular and in constant turmoil while gold prices rise and an almost clandestine melt takes place. I see the end game as a market which discovers sometime in the future that not many of these coins have survived. Unfortunately, I may not live to see it - but when the market recognition does happen, it will be a very exciting market for those who kept them.
SILVER COMMEMS
Eric's point is: These coins are low mintage and cheap. To which, I agree. I might also add that silver commems have been around the block before, and that there are many similarities between the Modern commems and the classic commems. It took about 30 years beyond the time when classic silver commems were finally discontinued for them to start getting respect.
With the Mint's propensity to over-produce and to over-proliferate the species, I expect something of the same phenomenon to repeat itself. The difference here is that silver is no longer a monetary medium, so that might compensate for the Mint's overproliferation of issues, since people still have an innate desire to invest in and to save items made from silver.
There is one more thing about these issues in particular. Many of these types of issues seem to end up in a hodgepodge of stuff in estate sales, accumulated by folks who bought them not really as "professional collectors" but as just plain folks buying stuff from the Mint in hopes of a Franklin Mint type of investment. As such, many of these coins aren't preserved like a knowledgeable collector would bother to preserve them. The result - very similar to what happened to the classic commems - nicer, toned specimens finally became "gem" collectibles. The rest just got lost in the trash bin.
Someday, somewhere, a dealer will be offered some of grandpa's old coin collection, and will be delighted to find a group of toned Modern Silver Commemoratives in original Mint packaging, and Heritage will sell them in the Sale of the Year. Problem is, it could be the year 2085 before that finally happens.
BUFFALO GOLD
As Eric notes, there are too many open-ended questions to know how this series (if it is a series) will develop at this time. If Plats and AGEs both go away, then yeah - the Buffs could have some legs.
PLATINUM
Eric's summary on platinum has many good points that should be reviewed carefully, and I won't elaborate on them because they need no further elaboration.
Here is one observation that hasn't been made yet, but it does tie in with everything that Eric has pointed out about platinum:
Lot's of very interesting developments happen either at the beginning, or at the end of a coinage series when production is winding down. In addition, sometimes interesting things happen between design changes, too. Some "end-of-series" examples:
1909-S Indian Cent - low mintage
1912-S Liberty Head Nickel - low mintage
1913-P Liberty Head Nickel - specimen pieces of questionable origin
1937-D Three-legged Buffalo - very scarce error
1929 Indian Head Gold Half Eagle - very low mintage
1933 Indian Head Gold Eagle - low mintage with very few known survivors
1933 Gold Double Eagles - very few known survivors from melt
The Plats have so many positive attributes as a collectible that it's difficult to find arguments against them. To wit:
1) They have a high bullion value at a time when the dollar devaluation is clearly going to continue, even to accelerate.
2) They have a high "cost of entry" which naturally limits the mintage numbers.
3) The quickly rising spot price of platinum has undeniably caused accelerated attrition in many of the common dates, but no one knows which dates, or how many of each.
4) The Mint is producing so many collectible coin issues (and Plat varieties) that the available capital with which to purchase Plats is being diluted, causing further pressures on already-minescule mintages.
5) The slowing economy, credit crisis, and banking liquidity crisis will continue to dry up available free funds which otherwise might have gone into Plats, again putting pressure on mintage numbers.
6) A fundamental supply scarcity issue in the platinum mining industry, in addition to infrastructure problems which cannot be quickly addressed. In the meantime, world demand continues to increase.
7) Oh yeah, in case fc or RYK drops in to read this post - a cohesive series of exquisite designs that form a collection of artistic works unparalleled in numismatics.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< I think you can't sleep on the 2008 platinum bullion coins.....
Please elaborate. Are you saying that you think that Plats are going away after this year? >>
Watch the mintages on these coins. Rather small so far.....
NN keeps repeating the point that only 1 oz. and 1/10 oz. coins have been produced and sold, but that's obviously not true, since the other denominations are selling on ebay and Apmex.
Can anyone add further information on the mintages?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
NN keeps repeating the point that only 1 oz. and 1/10 oz. coins have been produced and sold, but that's obviously not true, since the other denominations are selling on ebay and Apmex.
Can anyone add further information on the mintages?
To the best of my knowledge, the mint sold 1/4 and 1/2 OZ dated 2008 in November of 2007. 1,800 of each denomination was sold. How much of that was dated 2008? Your guess is as good as mine but some of it must have been dated 2008. When were they struck? Again, your guess is as good as mine; but, I know there have been 2008 dated 1/4s and 1/2s struck because I own one.
Do we know what sales numbers in NN represent 2008?
It means "orders taken" but doesn't reflect how many were sold prior to the year start (you know, when the mint starts taking orders for next year) which I believed started on November of last year (see sales page). There were orders for 1/4s and1/2s in November of 2007 that I would assume cover the ones APMEX is selling right now because there's nothing else in the mint charts showing 1/4s being sold until June of 2008 and I bought my 1/4 more than a month ago...
Do we know what sales numbers in NN represent 2008?
I have all the papers from Dec 07 to now and could total things up.....
I think that NN reflects the Mint Website's numbers. Looking at the data on the Mint's site, I wonder whether if it's possible that any of the November production numbers represent 2008-dated coins.
If not, then there have only been 400 of the 1/4 ozers minted, y-t-d. That seems crazy to me. A run of 400?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
To me these are the maximum numbers so far (this is just an estimate):
1/10 OZ - 4,000 1/4 OZ - 2,200 1/2 OZ - 3,000 1 OZ - 1,200
This is counting anything the mint reports as sales since November of 2007 and is not concrete (and I might be wrong, like I have been a thousand times)...
Okay so we are talking about little numbers at this point in time as a maximum mintage.....
I don't see platinum as being a very popular investment metal at the present time with it as high as it is, so how many more are likely to be purchased the rest of the year?
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
I don't see platinum as being a very popular investment metal at the present time with it as high as it is, so how many more are likely to be purchased the rest of the year?
Not many. There just aren't that many dollars left to go around, and the Mint might be willing to throw in the towel anytime after August 1st or so.
If I had to guess at a number, I'd use 2007 mintages as a guide for my efforts at extrapolating the data, since the spot price was pretty high in '07 as well. The numbers will be a tad smaller than '07 however, IMO.
I wouldn't count Nov/Dec data twice, but I can't guess at when the cutoff point was. I don't think the Mint knows either, since they never have to give any explanations about their methodology. I've never understood how they can get away with such sloppy accounting for a government agency that deals in such liquid assets.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
How many people actually collect date runs of bullion plats? I would guess the number is far fewer than those collecting the proofs and burnished uncirculated coins, which are more attractive from an artistic standpoint because of well-designed and annually changing reverse designs.
Even if the mintage of the 2008 bullion plats turns out to be low, I think the future prospects of the known low-mintage 2006-W burnished plats are brighter.
<< <i>How many people actually collect date runs of bullion plats? I would guess the number is far fewer than those collecting the proofs and burnished uncirculated coins, which are more attractive from an artistic standpoint because of well-designed and annually changing reverse designs.
Even if the mintage of the 2008 bullion plats turns out to be low, I think the future prospects of the known low-mintage 2006-W burnished plats are brighter. >>
I do, too. Give it 100 years, and the bullion coins may generate some interest, but it's hard to imagine much of a demand before then. For the person who DOES collect them, though, there's a chance at picking up some real rarities. As Eric suggested, these won't all be dates with low mintages, either. BTW, I'm still waiting for a photo of a big burlap sack stuffed with loose platinum eagles! Anyone???
How many people actually collect date runs of bullion plats? I would guess the number is far fewer than those collecting the proofs and burnished uncirculated coins, which are more attractive from an artistic standpoint because of well-designed and annually changing reverse designs.
Actually, the regular issue uncs from 1997 to 2003 were quite nicely done - they were similar to the RP coin except that Liberty's face was not brilliant (which was a bit overdone, anyhow.) I do think that the changing reverses were a pretty good idea, tho'.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I am not saying or thinking that the 2008 bullion coins are going to be the 04 proof or 06-W coins, but I would rather have one of these coins then not. Also not having a bullion coin I will take the 08 as my coin to have.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
I like the bullion coins and have a full 1/10 ounce set. They are low mintage and get no respect, IMO the UNC coins will be the ones that are melted or found in grades other than MS69/70. I started buying them in 1999 on Ebay for $42 each and they've served me well. I got the proof and W UNC's too but it wouldn't surprise me if you look back in 50 years these coins just aren't out there. JMO
Sales averages for Uncirculated Platinum Eagles with Changing Reverse until June 3rd, 2008 (figures compiled from Teletrade, eBay and Heritage realized prices):
<< <i>I thought I remember seeing that the St. Gaudens design would be unlimited as well... Capping this issue to 25,000 would be great! Eric, where did you find this new information about the limited production?
Thanks Eric >>
From the bill:
<< <i>(9) SPECIAL TREATMENT- If the Secretary elects to mint and issue coins in 2009 in gold as described in subparagraph (3)(A), no more than 25,000 shall be available for sale in a special `Golden Age of American Coinage' set, including a special holder, each in combination only with a proof version of the gold coins described in subsection. >>
Collecting coins, medals and currency featuring "The Sower"
As others have said, thank you just does not seem adequate for how much I appreciate your sharing your most interesting and insightful posts with us. I enjoy your posts and learn more from tham than from ANY other numismatic source.
You speak of the 2006 W ASE likely retaining key date/mint mark status. Please forgive my ignorance, but the '08 Rev. of '07 has perhaps a mintage of 45K, while the 2006 W has 250K alone in the 20th anniv. sets. Can a total mintage in the range the '06 W has, really do well over time?
The 2008w with a die variety reverse is not date and mint mark rare. Just as you don't have to have a 1955 double die cent to have a complete date and mint mark set of lincolns. I am not saying that they will not do well and be pricey. What I am saying is that in order for a coin to rule a series it must be seen in the eyes of the vast majority of the collectors as an absolute requirement to have a full date and mint mark set. People can say "I have a complete date and mint mark silver eagle set" without having a 2008w with a 2007 reverse.
The 2008w die variety is 10 times rarer than the 2006-w obviously. What is not obvious at least to me is if the collector base will feel like they MUST have one. If they think its a requirement then 2008w/07 will be a VERY SERIOUS COIN.
Now alot of those collectors probably won't care about it or spend the money on it.....
I still see this as a $500 raw coin.....
You know what they say: "if you build it they will come". If this coin is treated as a requirement for completion of the set it will gain value passed $500 raw. If a whole for the coin appear in updated Dansco and Whitman albums and the collector base accepts the coin as part of the set (ie; 2008 Type I and II) then 1995W money is highly probable for the coin; but, if it is perceived as just a variety and a "nice to have coin" but not a requirement for completion of the set the coin might remain a $500 coin for a long time.
I really like the fact that this is the first major variety for mint state Silver Eagles since 1986. The coin itself is really neat!
Wow! Thanks for the link. If true, this really could be the death knell for the series.
Suppose they halt the W-Uncs after only three years. I wonder if people would start to consider them part of the proof series or just low-mintage curios?
Suppose they halt the W-Uncs after only three years. I wonder if people would start to consider them part of the proof series or just low-mintage curios?
I've been thinking about that too. A three year sub-series seems a little short. I think if that happened, the Proofs would be the ticket...
<< <i>A three year sub-series seems a little short. I think if that happened, the Proofs would be the ticket...
On the other hand, it might be the only plat set that could be completed (at least in fractional form) without busting the average collector's budget. >>
That's true, but would anyone be interested? I don't think I'd go out of my way to collect a three-year set--especially when proofs offer the same designs AND, in years past, more diverse and attractive designs. I think Neo's probably right. But I also think a lot of proof plat collectors would ALSO want the Unc-Ws. The more I think about it, the more I think the Unc-Ws would be considered as a desirable, but not essential, add-on to the proof series.
On a related topic, I can't really see anyone being satisfied with just collecting the proof subsets (Branches of Government, etc...). Is anyone out there doing that and happy with that approach? I pretty much have my sights set on the entire series in 1/2-ounce. I still need three dates, including one that's proving a bit tough, but that's part of the fun of it.
Comments
Eric
Wow! That's pretty cool. Nice work Eric!!!
Hey Eric!
I always miss this thread when it's not bouncing up at the top. Thanks for another wonderful, interesting essay. It's a great time to be collecting plats because there's so much uncertainty about them with high PM prices. 2008 is shaping up to be a great year for many issues. I expect very low mintages for all fractional gold and plat eagles, regular and 'w's. I know that for me it's a stretch to get these, so that's a good sign it's a stretch for many others, too. I also think it's a great year to pick up some spouses, if you are at all inclined. It's funny, too. I'd kind of reached the same conclusion on possible "dark horse" plats, though I'd also include '03 and '08 in the mix also. Your essay also makes me want to go look at silver commems. All in all a great piece, and I look forward to more. THANK YOU!
Sneed
<< <i>
The Proof Ultra High Relief Saint with its 25,000 max mintage is going to be a killer if they don't have any follow on production in succeeding years. If you can afford one buy it.
>>
I thought they were going to be unlimted mintages? When is the scheduled release date and the estimated price? thanks!
I agree - this has been my Plat investment theme for the past several years. I know that if it's getting tough for me to come up with the money, it is most assuredly a good speculation.
As Eric notes - the disposable income issue has raised its head and will continue to do so. This only makes the low mintage possibilities even more dramatic. Having your finances in order before investing in platinum reminds me of an old saying - "if you're up to your neck in alligators, you forget that you came to drain the swamp."
Building upon Eric's observations - it is absolutely necessary to have the ability to weather financial storms independently of your platinum holdings in order to get maximum benefit from having platinum holdings! That's why the "strong hands" benefit the most - so that your stuff doesn't end up in the melting pot at exactly the wrong moment.
Nice work, Eric!
I knew it would happen.
Thanks for another thoughtful essay on coin series and values. I continue to look forward to these.
I thought that I read in CW or NN (can't remember) that there is no mintage limit on this proposed issue. Where was the info regarding an 25K limit published?
Thanks.
I think the economic slowdown combined with high inflation will increase the popularity of gold and silver coins, while possibly having the opposite effect on base metal coinage.
There are plenty of interesting and attractive precious metal coins (and sets) that are available at close to bullion value: circulated Roosevelt dimes and Franklin halves, modern commems, late 19th and early 20th century type gold, bullion American Eagles, etc.
These coins allow collectors a "guilt-free" way to add to their coin holdings, while at the same time building a hedge against hard times and depreciating paper money.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Please elaborate. Are you saying that you think that Plats are going away after this year?
I knew it would happen.
Thanks
Eric
<< <i>I think you can't sleep on the 2008 platinum bullion coins.....
Please elaborate. Are you saying that you think that Plats are going away after this year? >>
Watch the mintages on these coins. Rather small so far.....
THE SET VS THE KEY DATE:
If materials spike hard and drive all the keys underwater the total set value growth will carry the day.
The double-edged sword!! This is what every Plat collector needs to remember. Keys are fine, and dandy - but so is a big ol' pile of platinum when prices are rising, and as long as we stay with increasing entitlements for more and more people, there is no other way for platinum to go but up.
SILVER EAGLES:
I find it very interesting that it took the Mint a full 22 years before they produced an "error" coin in this series. Perhaps after seeing the coin market's spasmodic reaction to the Prez Dollar "errors" and the recent "mules", they decided to throw in for a new Silver Eagle variety. We will never know. If 47,000 (or less) is the number - there are more Silver Eagle collectors than that, and speculators will do their part to hype any scarcity. On the flip side, there are many, many other Mint products constantly vying for collector dollars. And, the Mint might well decide that the next Silver Eagle error will only consist of 5,000-10,000 pieces. My estimate for the 8/7 Reverse - moderate appreciation. But, I also like generic Silver Eagles almost as much, just based on the silver market.
GOLD EAGLES AND THE ULTRA HIGH RELIEF SAINT
If this is a single issue with a mintage limit of 25,000 it should be a fairly decent keeper. Remember, however - that the Mint managed to turn the 2007-W Reverse Proof Platinum Eagle from an exciting concept into a bullion piece headed for the melting pot within the same year that it was made. They overproduced it in addition to deviating from the 1 oz. coins like they made the other RPs, which would have made a "killer" exhibition set.
If they make this a double thick UHR Saint as a unique commemoration to the talents of Saint Gaudens, then the coin will attain a very desirable position among the Modern issues. It could be a killer, as Eric suggests. If they overproduce it and then glomb onto the idea with fractionals as well, it will be another piece of bullion. It's really the Mint's call at this point. I plan on obtaining at least 2 or more pieces if they don't screw it up too bad.
FIRST SPOUSE GOLD
This series is just not for me, however - I am convinced that the dedicated collectors of this series will be rewarded in the long run.
In addition to the inevitable low mintage keys that will be made, this series has the very same advantages that platinum and silver have - the longterm inflationary trend will overwhelm any mistakes that could be made by investing here.
My own strategy has been to drag my feet and not buy any. At some point, I might buy an issue simply as a place to park some money in gold. My longterm estimate - a very difficult series to complete, with commensurate rewards along the way.
GOLD COMMEMS
Again, not my cup of tea, but all of my comments on the First Spouse Gold series applies here, only more so. I find Eric's comment to be very relevant: A lack of design based unity and high prices relative to their mintage will continue to a drag on price growth going forward.
Having said that, this series is unlike any other. There is no precedent series to make for comparative purposes, since the early 20th Century Commemorative Gold Issues don't really comprise much of a "series."
I see this series as being not particularly popular and in constant turmoil while gold prices rise and an almost clandestine melt takes place. I see the end game as a market which discovers sometime in the future that not many of these coins have survived. Unfortunately, I may not live to see it - but when the market recognition does happen, it will be a very exciting market for those who kept them.
SILVER COMMEMS
Eric's point is: These coins are low mintage and cheap. To which, I agree. I might also add that silver commems have been around the block before, and that there are many similarities between the Modern commems and the classic commems. It took about 30 years beyond the time when classic silver commems were finally discontinued for them to start getting respect.
With the Mint's propensity to over-produce and to over-proliferate the species, I expect something of the same phenomenon to repeat itself. The difference here is that silver is no longer a monetary medium, so that might compensate for the Mint's overproliferation of issues, since people still have an innate desire to invest in and to save items made from silver.
There is one more thing about these issues in particular. Many of these types of issues seem to end up in a hodgepodge of stuff in estate sales, accumulated by folks who bought them not really as "professional collectors" but as just plain folks buying stuff from the Mint in hopes of a Franklin Mint type of investment. As such, many of these coins aren't preserved like a knowledgeable collector would bother to preserve them. The result - very similar to what happened to the classic commems - nicer, toned specimens finally became "gem" collectibles. The rest just got lost in the trash bin.
Someday, somewhere, a dealer will be offered some of grandpa's old coin collection, and will be delighted to find a group of toned Modern Silver Commemoratives in original Mint packaging, and Heritage will sell them in the Sale of the Year. Problem is, it could be the year 2085 before that finally happens.
BUFFALO GOLD
As Eric notes, there are too many open-ended questions to know how this series (if it is a series) will develop at this time. If Plats and AGEs both go away, then yeah - the Buffs could have some legs.
PLATINUM
Eric's summary on platinum has many good points that should be reviewed carefully, and I won't elaborate on them because they need no further elaboration.
Here is one observation that hasn't been made yet, but it does tie in with everything that Eric has pointed out about platinum:
Lot's of very interesting developments happen either at the beginning, or at the end of a coinage series when production is winding down. In addition, sometimes interesting things happen between design changes, too. Some "end-of-series" examples:
1909-S Indian Cent - low mintage
1912-S Liberty Head Nickel - low mintage
1913-P Liberty Head Nickel - specimen pieces of questionable origin
1937-D Three-legged Buffalo - very scarce error
1929 Indian Head Gold Half Eagle - very low mintage
1933 Indian Head Gold Eagle - low mintage with very few known survivors
1933 Gold Double Eagles - very few known survivors from melt
The Plats have so many positive attributes as a collectible that it's difficult to find arguments against them. To wit:
1) They have a high bullion value at a time when the dollar devaluation is clearly going to continue, even to accelerate.
2) They have a high "cost of entry" which naturally limits the mintage numbers.
3) The quickly rising spot price of platinum has undeniably caused accelerated attrition in many of the common dates, but no one knows which dates, or how many of each.
4) The Mint is producing so many collectible coin issues (and Plat varieties) that the available capital with which to purchase Plats is being diluted, causing further pressures on already-minescule mintages.
5) The slowing economy, credit crisis, and banking liquidity crisis will continue to dry up available free funds which otherwise might have gone into Plats, again putting pressure on mintage numbers.
6) A fundamental supply scarcity issue in the platinum mining industry, in addition to infrastructure problems which cannot be quickly addressed. In the meantime, world demand continues to increase.
7) Oh yeah, in case fc or RYK drops in to read this post - a cohesive series of exquisite designs that form a collection of artistic works unparalleled in numismatics.
I knew it would happen.
Please elaborate. Are you saying that you think that Plats are going away after this year? >>
Watch the mintages on these coins. Rather small so far.....
NN keeps repeating the point that only 1 oz. and 1/10 oz. coins have been produced and sold, but that's obviously not true, since the other denominations are selling on ebay and Apmex.
Can anyone add further information on the mintages?
I knew it would happen.
Can anyone add further information on the mintages?
To the best of my knowledge, the mint sold 1/4 and 1/2 OZ dated 2008 in November of 2007. 1,800 of each denomination was sold. How much of that was dated 2008? Your guess is as good as mine but some of it must have been dated 2008. When were they struck? Again, your guess is as good as mine; but, I know there have been 2008 dated 1/4s and 1/2s struck because I own one.
Box of 20
I have all the papers from Dec 07 to now and could total things up.....
It means "orders taken" but doesn't reflect how many were sold prior to the year start (you know, when the mint starts taking orders for next year) which I believed started on November of last year (see sales page). There were orders for 1/4s and1/2s in November of 2007 that I would assume cover the ones APMEX is selling right now because there's nothing else in the mint charts showing 1/4s being sold until June of 2008 and I bought my 1/4 more than a month ago...
I have all the papers from Dec 07 to now and could total things up.....
I think that NN reflects the Mint Website's numbers. Looking at the data on the Mint's site, I wonder whether if it's possible that any of the November production numbers represent 2008-dated coins.
If not, then there have only been 400 of the 1/4 ozers minted, y-t-d. That seems crazy to me. A run of 400?
I knew it would happen.
1/10 OZ - 4,000
1/4 OZ - 2,200
1/2 OZ - 3,000
1 OZ - 1,200
This is counting anything the mint reports as sales since November of 2007 and is not concrete (and I might be wrong, like I have been a thousand times)...
I don't see platinum as being a very popular investment metal at the present time with it as high as it is, so how many more are likely to be purchased the rest of the year?
Not many. There just aren't that many dollars left to go around, and the Mint might be willing to throw in the towel anytime after August 1st or so.
If I had to guess at a number, I'd use 2007 mintages as a guide for my efforts at extrapolating the data, since the spot price was pretty high in '07 as well. The numbers will be a tad smaller than '07 however, IMO.
I wouldn't count Nov/Dec data twice, but I can't guess at when the cutoff point was. I don't think the Mint knows either, since they never have to give any explanations about their methodology. I've never understood how they can get away with such sloppy accounting for a government agency that deals in such liquid assets.
I knew it would happen.
How many people actually collect date runs of bullion plats? I would guess the number is far fewer than those collecting the proofs and burnished uncirculated coins, which are more attractive from an artistic standpoint because of well-designed and annually changing reverse designs.
Even if the mintage of the 2008 bullion plats turns out to be low, I think the future prospects of the known low-mintage 2006-W burnished plats are brighter.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>How many people actually collect date runs of bullion plats? I would guess the number is far fewer than those collecting the proofs and burnished uncirculated coins, which are more attractive from an artistic standpoint because of well-designed and annually changing reverse designs.
Even if the mintage of the 2008 bullion plats turns out to be low, I think the future prospects of the known low-mintage 2006-W burnished plats are brighter. >>
I do, too. Give it 100 years, and the bullion coins may generate some interest, but it's hard to imagine much of a demand before then. For the person who DOES collect them, though, there's a chance at picking up some real rarities. As Eric suggested, these won't all be dates with low mintages, either. BTW, I'm still waiting for a photo of a big burlap sack stuffed with loose platinum eagles! Anyone???
I knew it would happen.
Actually, the regular issue uncs from 1997 to 2003 were quite nicely done - they were similar to the RP coin except that Liberty's face was not brilliant (which was a bit overdone, anyhow.) I do think that the changing reverses were a pretty good idea, tho'.
I knew it would happen.
1/10 OZ - 1,347
1/4 OZ - 925
1/2 OZ - 878
1 OZ - 1,498 (last week was 1,647)
Numbers include 541 sets.
<< <i>I thought I remember seeing that the St. Gaudens design would be unlimited as well... Capping this issue to 25,000 would be great! Eric, where did you find this new information about the limited production?
Thanks
Eric >>
From the bill:
<< <i>(9) SPECIAL TREATMENT- If the Secretary elects to mint and issue coins in 2009 in gold as described in subparagraph (3)(A), no more than 25,000 shall be available for sale in a special `Golden Age of American Coinage' set, including a special holder, each in combination only with a proof version of the gold coins described in subsection. >>
As others have said, thank you just does not seem adequate for how much I appreciate your sharing your most interesting and insightful posts with us. I enjoy your posts and learn more from tham than from ANY other numismatic source.
You speak of the 2006 W ASE likely retaining key date/mint mark status. Please forgive my ignorance, but the '08 Rev. of '07 has perhaps a mintage of 45K, while the 2006 W has 250K alone in the 20th anniv. sets. Can a total mintage in the range the '06 W has, really do well over time?
THANKS!
The 2008w with a die variety reverse is not date and mint mark rare. Just as you don't have to have a 1955 double die cent to have a complete date and mint mark set of lincolns. I am not saying that they will not do well and be pricey. What I am saying is that in order for a coin to rule a series it must be seen in the eyes of the vast majority of the collectors as an absolute requirement to have a full date and mint mark set. People can say "I have a complete date and mint mark silver eagle set" without having a 2008w with a 2007 reverse.
The 2008w die variety is 10 times rarer than the 2006-w obviously. What is not obvious at least to me is if the collector base will feel like they MUST have one. If they think its a requirement then 2008w/07 will be a VERY SERIOUS COIN.
Ericj96
Now alot of those collectors probably won't care about it or spend the money on it.....
I still see this as a $500 raw coin.....
I still see this as a $500 raw coin.....
You know what they say: "if you build it they will come". If this coin is treated as a requirement for completion of the set it will gain value passed $500 raw. If a whole for the coin appear in updated Dansco and Whitman albums and the collector base accepts the coin as part of the set (ie; 2008 Type I and II) then 1995W money is highly probable for the coin; but, if it is perceived as just a variety and a "nice to have coin" but not a requirement for completion of the set the coin might remain a $500 coin for a long time.
I really like the fact that this is the first major variety for mint state Silver Eagles since 1986. The coin itself is really neat!
June/July American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Coins
Merrill Raises 2009 Platinum Forecast 25% on Supply
<< <i>June/July from what I hear and I hope it's sooner rather than latter these are already too much. From the mint's website:
June/July American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Coins
Merrill Raises 2009 Platinum Forecast 25% on Supply >>
Wow! Thanks for the link. If true, this really could be the death knell for the series.
Suppose they halt the W-Uncs after only three years. I wonder if people would start to consider them part of the proof series or just low-mintage curios?
I've been thinking about that too. A three year sub-series seems a little short. I think if that happened, the Proofs would be the ticket...
On the other hand, it might be the only plat set that could be completed (at least in fractional form) without busting the average collector's budget.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>A three year sub-series seems a little short. I think if that happened, the Proofs would be the ticket...
On the other hand, it might be the only plat set that could be completed (at least in fractional form) without busting the average collector's budget. >>
That's true, but would anyone be interested? I don't think I'd go out of my way to collect a three-year set--especially when proofs offer the same designs AND, in years past, more diverse and attractive designs. I think Neo's probably right. But I also think a lot of proof plat collectors would ALSO want the Unc-Ws. The more I think about it, the more I think the Unc-Ws would be considered as a desirable, but not essential, add-on to the proof series.
On a related topic, I can't really see anyone being satisfied with just collecting the proof subsets (Branches of Government, etc...). Is anyone out there doing that and happy with that approach? I pretty much have my sights set on the entire series in 1/2-ounce. I still need three dates, including one that's proving a bit tough, but that's part of the fun of it.
When I ask dealers about platinum coins they look at me like I was speaking a foreign language.....